A simulation of inertial oscillation in drifting pack ice

A simple model for simulating the motion of pack ice during periods of energetic inertial oscillation is developed by writing an integrated momentum equation for the ice and upper ocean driven by surface wind stress. Damping is provided by a term proportional to the component of mass transport parallel to wind stress, which is a measure of the departure from a steady-state balance of wind stress and Coriolis force. Oceanic boundary-layer transport is taken to be proportional to the square of the surface velocity on the basis of extensive current measurements made under drifting ice, providing a relationship between ice velocity and total transport. Ice drift velocities measured at AIDJEX stations during the summer of 1975 are simulated with some success using measured local winds. A simple superposition of waves generated at the corners of the triangular array of stations is considered and it is shown that at times the waves are coherent across the 150 km array and at other times there is considerable interference at lesser scales. The importance of the motions for the production of new ice is briefly discussed.     

Estimates of diabatic wind speed profiles from near-surface weather observations

In this paper we analyse diabatic wind profiles observed at the 213 m meteorological tower at Cabauw, the Netherlands. It is shown that the wind speed profiles agree with the well-known similarity functions of the atmospheric surface layer, when we substitute an effective roughness length. For very unstable conditions, the agreement is good up to at least 200 m or z/L–7(z is height, L is Obukhov length scale). For stable conditions, the agreement is good up to z/L1. For stronger stability, a semi-empirical extension is given of the log-linear profile, which gives acceptable estimates up to ~ 100 m. A scheme is used for the derivation of the Obukhov length scale from single wind speed, total cloud cover and air temperature. With the latter scheme and the similarity functions, wind speed profiles can be estimated from near-surface weather data only. The results for wind speed depend on height and stability. Up to 80 m, the rms difference with observations is on average 1.1 m s^–1. At 200 m, 0.8 m s^–1 for very unstable conditions increasing to 2.1 m s^–1 for very stable conditions. The proposed methods simulate the diurnal variation of the 80 m wind speed very well. Also the simulated frequency distribution of the 80 m wind speed agrees well with the observed one. It is concluded that the proposed methods are applicable up to at least 100 m in generally level terrain.     

Transport rate of drifting snow and the mean wind speed profile

Transport rates, measured by weighing snow blown into a filter fabric trap, were greater over hard snow or ice than for the same wind speed over soft, fresh snow surfaces. Analysis of wind speed profiles from nine blizzards showed that friction between moving particles and the surface was less, and particle speeds were greater over hard surfaces. Transport rates at a given wind speed increased rapidly as aerodynamic roughness decreased in the rough-smooth transition region. Bagnold's theory for bed load transport provided a useful framework for the analysis.     

Estimating the propagation velocity of atmospheric fronts from surface wind observations

Abstract

Surface mesonet winds recorded at 10‐min intervals are used to estimate the propagation velocities of atmospheric fronts in East Coast winter storms during the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP). The frontal motion is modelled locally as the translation of a line across which there is an abrupt shift in wind direction. The mesonet is used to detect the propagation velocity of the windshift line.

Frontal velocities estimated using mesonet winds for all cases in which fronts passed through the mesonet (two cold fronts and three warm fronts) are in close agreement with those deduced from synoptic charts. Recommendations are given for using the method as a research tool to estimate frontal motions in oceanographic studies of wind‐driven circulation.     

50年一遇最大风速估算

根据榆林气象站1961—2016年逐年及该地区某一风电观测场2007年逐时最大风速资料,在探讨最大风速突变点的基础上,利用极值Ⅰ型分析法及1d、5d设计风速取样法对风电观测场50a一遇最大风速进行估算,同时参考《建筑结构荷载规范》,最终确定风电观测场最大风速的取值。结果表明:榆林气象站历年最大风速有下降趋势,并在1980年发生突变;利用突变点前风电观测场最大风速序列计算的50a一遇风速修正后,得到的结果与建筑结构荷载规范的值相近,可以互相验证,最终确定50a一遇最大风速为25.3m/s,相应风压为0.4kN/m^2。     

复杂下垫面风电场风速数值模拟及误差特征

利用WRF模式分别对沿海及山地条件下风电场风速进行高分辨数值模拟,并对其误差特征进行分析,结果表明:1)WRF模式对复杂地形条件下的风速模拟性能良好,模拟值较好地体现天气尺度的周期变化;2)沿海及山地条件下模拟与观测的误差特征各不相同。模式静态数据未能显现沿海的小岛,并且低估了山地测风塔所在的海拔,导致沿海平均模拟风速偏大,山地平均模拟风速偏小;3)分析不同风向的归一化均方根误差,沿海陆风情况下,下垫面相对复杂,误差明显增大;沿海海风情况下,下垫面均一,误差明显减小;4)仅作单个风电场周边数百平方千米的模拟,采用一台12核的服务器进行WRF模式的并行计算可满足48 h短期预测的时效性。仅仅提高模拟的网格分辨率,并不一定能提升模拟的准确性。     

高空图的业务客观分析

一、引言 所谓的客观分析的基本点是根据不规则的、疏密不均匀的测站资料而得到规则网格点上的适当数值。客观分析应用于实况资料分析和为数值天气预报提供初始场,是自动化数值预报体系的重要环节。 由Panofsky(1949)提出并由Gilckrist和Cressman(1954)作了修改的最早的客观分析方法是用最小二乘法使资料满足一些多项式。多项式法在无资料地区会产生计算不     

华北地区风速变化的分析

本文利用华北地区1957-2006年共计50a 104个气象观测站的实测风速,分析了该地区年平均风速的空间分布特征、逐年代变化特征、近50a来的变化趋势以及风速突变现象,研究表明,华北地区风速呈西北和东南地区偏大、东北一西南向风速偏小的分布特征;风速有减小趋势,大部分台站风速减小趋势达到了-0.2～-0.5(m·s-1)/10a;华北南部风速最先开始突变,西部次之,北部和中部没有检测到突变时间.     

Spectra of surface wind speed and air temperature over the ocean in the mesoscale frequency range in JASIN-1978

Based on the data from an array of buoys during the JASIN-1978 field experiment made in an area northwest of Scotland, power spectra of surface wind speed and air temperature over the ocean in the mesoscale frequency range were studied. The averaged composite spectrum of wind speed for the whole period shows the existence of a spectral gap in the frequency range from 10^–4 to 5 × 10^–3 Hz. However, significant peaks in this range are often seen in particular spectra under certain weather conditions. Mesoscale spectral peaks of wind speed occur in 14 segments of the data record, approximately 10% of the total duration of the observations. In 4 of these segments, the mesoscale spectral peaks of both wind speed and air temperature occurred simultaneously. Several wave patterns of mesoscale atmospheric disturbances when mesoscale spectral peaks were seen are derived from phase differences between buoys. Significant mesoscale peaks in spectra appear in relatively strong winds and unstable or near-neutral atmospheric conditions, and none in stable atmospheric conditions. A criterion of wind speed and atmospheric stability is found for the mesoscale spectral peak appearance.     

应用泊松耿贝尔分布估算海上极端风速

采用泊松耿贝尔分布,基于中国气象局发布的《CMA-STI热带气旋最佳路径数据集》资料来估算海上极端风速,并以上川岛气象站多年实测资料通过概率评估来加以验证。结果表明,采用泊松耿贝尔分布可以得到较为保守的海上极值风速取值。对于海上的小面积区域的重现期风速估算,采用50 km半径区域进行评估,可以得到较为合理的估算结果,当评估区域较大时,则需考虑适当扩大评估半径。     

Katabatic wind profiles over the Greenland ice sheet: observation and modelling

Profiles of wind and temperature have been observedabove the Greenland ice sheet, 90 km from its westernmargin, in July 1991. The terrain slopes downward tothe west. Measurements were performed with instrumentson a 30 m mast, combined with a Doppler SODAR and aRASS. Whereas the surface is usually at the meltingpoint, the temperatures in the free atmosphere areabove freezing. The depth of the boundary layer, in whichthe wind turns to the free atmosphere direction, is notmuch more than 100 m. The surface wind is always aboutfrom the southeast (hence with a downslope component),whereas winds from the southwest (with an upslopecomponent) often occur at the 100 m level.Mixing length profiles for momentum were estimatedby comparison of calculated and observed windprofiles. A good accordance between calculated andobserved wind speed was obtained. The neutralmixing length had a maximum of only a few metres, whichwas approached already at low height. The limiting valueis proportional to the 0.7-th power of the Froudenumber times a length scale obtained from thetemperature profile.     

Estimating crop top microclimates from weather station data

Abstract

A mathematical model (Microsim) was developed to estimate the microclimate at the top of nearby crops using inputs of weather station data and some knowledge about crop characteristics, such as height, albedo, and leaf area index. The model was tested using data measured simultaneously over a weather station and over each of two crops ‐ corn and soybean. Temperatures at the top of unstressed, uniform crops on level terrain within 1600 m of a recording weather station were estimated within 1.0° C 96% of the time for a corn crop and 92% of the time for a soybean crop. Winds at crop top were estimated within 0.4 m s^?1 92% of the time for corn and 100% of the time for soybean. Energy balance flux density estimates for the corn crop resulted in correlation coefficients of r > 0.89 for each of R_n, LE, H and G. microsim worked well under atmospheric conditions that ranged from very stable to unstable.

An enhancement was made to the model to describe wind and temperature profiles based on the complete fetch characteristics of the sites. This resulted in significantly better wind estimates, but had the disadvantage of requiring more information about the crop and weather station surroundings.     

Comparison of Canadian daily ice charts with surface observations off Newfoundland,winter 1992

Abstract

Forecast ice drift rates and thicknesses displayed on daily ice charts and forecast winds for the Canadian east coast are compared to on‐ice observations made during the second Canadian Atlantic Storm Program (CASP II) of March 1992. Observed and 24‐hour forecasts of daily ice drift rates were weakly correlated even though long‐term means closely matched observations. Daily drift rates have an RMS error of 13 cm s^‐1 relative to a 15 cm s^‐1 mean in addition to an RMS direction error of 50 degrees. Contributions towards daily drift uncertainties were: the estimation of winds, unmodelled physics of ocean and ice cover processes; and the inconsistency in the methods used by the ice forecaster. Correlation coefficients between forecast winds and on‐ice observed winds decreased from 0.8 at 0‐hour to 0.7 for the 30‐hour forecast. Similar results were found between ice drift rates from forecast winds. Histograms of ice thicknesses observed along narrow swaths using a helicopter‐towed electromagnetic sensor compared well with undeformed ice thicknesses representing large areas on ice charts, with differences mainly caused by difference in ice type representation and by co‐registering the two data sets.     

A technique of radiosonde launch under the surface wind of high speed

Upper-air sounding is impacted by the surface wind of high speed in polar regions and in the areas affected by tropical cyclones. Considered are the main existing methods of radiosonde launching under such conditions. It is suggested to use the cone tower in order to provide a greater initial height of launching of the instrumental box as compared with the routine launching method. The employement of the tower allows using the wind force jointly with the lifting force of the balloon to deliver the instrumental box up to the top of the tower. Installation of the tower into the wind shelter secures the operator and provides the radiosonde launching even in the case of the very strong wind. The field model experiment corroborated the efficiency of the proposed scheme of radiosonde launching.     

强对流天气发生前期地面风场特征

根据对华东地区9次强对流天气的地面风场分析发现,强对流的发生发展与锋前暖区的中尺度辐合线有密切关系,与地面中尺度辐合线相伴的扰动辐合值为-0.8×10~(-4)·s~(-1)左右.当有移动的天气系统与其相遇时,交点附近扰动辐合值迅速增大,促使对流迅猛发展且移速加快.辐合线的形成与大尺度背景和特定地形有关.移动的中尺度辐合线与变压风有关而静正辐合线常与露点锋相伴.     

湍流频散对边界层风廓线的影响

应用包括湍流粘性和频散的新的Reynolds平均动量方程，分析了边界层的垂直风速廓线，发现包含湍流频散的地面层的风速廓线对经典的风廓线指数规律有一个对数规律的修改；而且在不稳定层结下比在稳定层结下，湍流的频散效应更为显；在中性条件下，指数规律退化为对数规律并且Karman常数被另外一个常数所代替，而这个新常数也可以通过相似理论来获得。     

Generalized extreme wind speed distributions in South America over the Atlantic Ocean region

Statistical analysis of extreme values is applied to wind data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis grid points over the ocean region bounded at 23°S and 40°W and 42°W towards the south and southeastern Brazilian coast. The period of analysis goes from 1975 to 2006. The generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions are employed for annual and daily maxima, respectively. The Pareto?CPoisson point process characterization is also used to analyze peaks over threshold. Return levels for 10, 25, 50, and 100?years are calculated at each grid point. However, most of the reanalysis data fall within 1?C10-year return periods, suggesting that hazardous wind speed with low probability (return periods of 50?C100) have rarely measured in this period. Wide confidence intervals on these levels show that there is not enough information to make predictions with any degree of certainty to return periods over 100?years. Low extremal index (??) values are found for excess wind speeds over a high threshold, indicating the occurrence of consecutively high peaks. In order to obtain realistic uncertainty information concerning inferences associated with threshold excesses, a declustering method is performed, which separates the excesses into clusters, thereby rendering the extreme values more independent.     

Diurnal variation of surface wind over central eastern China

Hourly wind observations from 452 meteorological stations are used to document the diurnal cycle of the surface wind over the central eastern China (100°–122°E, 20°–42.5°N). Both the surface wind speed and the wind direction show large diurnal variation with pronounced topographic effects. At most stations, the surface wind speed reaches the maximum in the afternoon and the minimum in early-morning. This diurnal phase shows small seasonal variation, whereas the diurnal amplitude varies significantly in different seasons. The diurnal amplitude of the surface wind speed reaches maximum in spring over the northern and southwestern China and in summer over the southern China. The diurnal cycle of the wind direction is more complicated. Over the coastal (mountain) regions, the diurnal wind direction is greatly influenced by the land–sea (mountain–valley) breezes with large (small) seasonal variation. Over the northern plain region, the wind direction exhibits small diurnal variation but with remarkable seasonal rotation. The surface wind over the stations located on the top of mountains shows distinct diurnal variation, which represents the diurnal cycle of the tropospheric low-level wind. The wind speed over these stations is highest in pre-dawn and lowest in the afternoon. The wind anomaly rotates clockwise from late night to late afternoon, and shows significant seasonal variation as influenced by the annual cycle of the monsoon system. The contribution of the diurnal surface wind to the diurnal feature of precipitation is briefly discussed.     

Temporal change of some statistical characteristics of wind speed over the Great Hungarian Plain

Summary  The objective of this study is to assess whether changes in the surface pressure field over Europe are reflected in the statistical structure of the wind field over the Great Hungarian Plain. The data basis consists of hourly wind speed data from 1968–72 and 1991–95, from three meteorological stations (Debrecen, Békéscsaba and Szeged) located in the Great Hungarian Plain. A new statistical test and its application for determining the statistical significance of differences between expected values of non-independent wind speed time series is presented in the paper. The summer wind field over the Great Hungarian Plain shows evidence of change: wind speeds have been decreasing and a tertiary maximum, in July, has become less pronounced. Received August 31, 2000 Revised January 2, 2001