Assessment of meteorological climate models as inputs for coastal studies

Modeling studies of future changes in coastal hydrodynamics, in terms of storm surges and wave climate, need appropriate wind and atmospheric forcings, a necessary requirement for the realistic reproduction of the statistics and the resolution of small scale features. This work compares meteorological results from different climate models in the Mediterranean area, with a focus on the Adriatic Sea, in order to assess their capability to reproduce coastal meteorological features and their possibility to be used as forcings for hydrodynamic simulations. Five meteorological datasets are considered. They are obtained from two regional climate models, implemented with different spatial resolutions and setups and are downscaled from two different global climate models. Wind and atmospheric pressure fields are compared with measurements at four stations along the Italian Adriatic coast. The analysis is carried out both on simulations of the control period 1960–1990 and on the A1B Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change scenario projections (2070–2100), highlighting the ability of each model in reproducing the statistical coastal meteorological behavior and possible changes. The importance of simulated global- and regional-scale meteorological processes, in terms of correct spatial resolution of the phenomena, is also discussed. Within the Adriatic Sea, the meteorological climate is influenced by the local orography that controls the strengthening of north-eastern katabatic winds like Bora. Results show indeed that the increase in spatial resolution provides a more realistic wind forcing for the hydrodynamic simulations. Moreover, the chosen setup and the global climate models that drive the regional downscalings appear to play an important role in reproducing correct atmospheric pressure fields. The comparison between scenario and control simulations shows a small increase in the mean atmospheric pressure values, while a decrease in mean wind speed and in extreme wind events is observed, particularly for the datasets with higher spatial resolution. Finally, results suggest that an ensemble of downscaled climate models is likely to provide the most suitable climatic forcings (wind and atmospheric pressure fields) for coastal hydrodynamic modeling.     

A set of rapid-response models for pollutant dispersion assessments in southern Spain coastal waters

Three rapid-response Lagrangian particle-tracking dispersion models have been developed for southern Spain coastal waters. The three domains cover the Gulf of Cádiz (Atlantic Ocean), the Alborán Sea (Mediterranean), and the Strait of Gibraltar with higher spatial resolution. The models are based on different hydrodynamic submodels, which are run in advance. Tides are calculated using a 2D barotropic model in the three cases. Models used to obtain the residual circulation depend on the physical oceanography of each region. Thus, two-layer models are applied to Gibraltar Strait and Alborán Sea and a 3D baroclinic model is used in the Gulf of Cádiz. Results from these models have been compared with observations to validate them and are then used by the particle-tracking models to calculate dispersion. Chemical, radioactive and oil spills may be simulated, incorporating specific processes for each kind of pollutant. Several application examples are provided.     

Model-based long-term reconstruction of weather-driven variations in chronic oil pollution along the German North Sea coast

Lagrangian passive tracer transport simulations covering the 46-year period 1958-2003 were utilized to compare the exposures of different parts of the German North Sea coast to ship-related chronic oil pollution. Assuming the spatial distribution of oil releases to be proportional to estimated ship traffic density, detailed drift reconstructions allowed for the reconstruction of wind-induced inter-annual variations in coastal pollution. For the winter months, a statistical relationship between simulated advective transports and prevailing sea surface pressure fields was established via Canonical Correlation Analysis. Wind effects were found to be more important for the northern (Schleswig-Holstein) than for the southern (Lower Saxony) part of the German North Sea coast. For Schleswig-Holstein, simulations showed consensus with beached bird survey data from this region. Proper identification of weather-driven inter-annual and spatial variations in monitoring data helps to avert misjudgments with regard to trends in the general level of chronic oil pollution.     

Modeling internal tides over Fieberling Guyot: resolution, parameterization, performance

Terrain-following ocean models are being used to simulate baroclinic tides and provide estimates of the tidal fields for circulation and mixing studies. These models have successfully reproduced elevations with most of the remaining inaccuracies attributed to topographic errors; however, the replication of barotropic and baroclinic velocity fields has not been as robust. Part of the problem is the lack of an adequate observational dataset in the simulated regions to compare the models. This problem was addressed using a dataset collected during the Flow over Abrupt Topography initiative at Fieberling Guyot. To evaluate the capability of the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) to simulate baroclinic tidal velocities, the combined tides for four constituents, M₂, S₂, K₁, and O₁, were modeled over Fieberling Guyot. Model inputs, numerical schemes, and parameterizations were varied to improve agreement with observations. These included hydrography, horizontal resolution, and the vertical mixing parameterization. Other factors were evaluated but are not included in this paper. With the best case, semidiurnal baroclinic tides were well replicated with RMS differences between the model estimates and the observations of 1.85 and 0.60 cm s⁻¹ for the major axes of the tidal ellipses for M₂ and S₂, respectively. However, diurnal K₁ baroclinic tides were poorly simulated with RMS differences of 4.49 cm s⁻¹. In the simulations, the K₁ baroclinic tides remained bottom-trapped unlike the observed fields, which had free waves due to the contribution of the mean velocity to the potential vorticity. The model did not adequately simulate the mean velocity, and the K₁ tides remained trapped. A resolution of 1 km most accurately reproduced the major axes and mean velocities; however, a 4-km resolution was sufficient for a qualitative estimate of where baroclinic tidal generation occurred. Nine vertical mixing parameterizations were compared. The vertical mixing parameterization was found to have minor effects on the velocity fields, with most effects occurring over the crown of guyot and in the lower water column; however, it had dramatic effects on the estimation of vertical diffusivity of temperature. Although there was no definitive best performer for the vertical mixing parameterization, several parameterizations could be eliminated based on comparison of the vertical diffusivity estimates with observations. The best performers were Mellor–Yamada and three generic length scale schemes.     

Comparing 1D and combined 1D/2D hydraulic simulations using high-resolution topographic data: a case study of the Koiliaris basin,Greece

The development of high spatial resolution digital elevation models takes place via the use of GeoEye-1 stereo-pair imagery, providing highly accurate geometrical representations of complex riverine systems. The combination of geographic information systems with hydraulic models facilitates the exploitation of satellite topographic information throughout the cross-section extraction process. One-dimensional HEC-RAS and combined 1D/2D HEC-RAS models are adjusted by making use of the resulting high-resolution input. Several hydraulic simulations are effectuated in order to test how significantly DEM resolution affects hydraulic modelling results, with regard also to the model dimensionality. The ability of the combined 1D/2D model, based mainly on the high-accuracy input data, provides an accurate estimate of the flood hazard area. Flood-prone areas could take advantage of high-accuracy results and facilitate the effective management of extreme events and sufficient decision making.     

A review of the LATEX project: mesoscale to submesoscale processes in a coastal environment

The main objective of the LAgrangian Transport EXperiment (LATEX) project was to study the influence of coastal mesoscale and submesoscale physical processes on circulation dynamics, cross-shelf exchanges, and biogeochemistry in the western continental shelf of the Gulf of Lion, Northwestern Mediterranean Sea. LATEX was a five-year multidisciplinary project based on the combined analysis of numerical model simulations and multi-platform field experiments. The model component included a ten-year realistic 3D numerical simulation, with a 1 km horizontal resolution over the gulf, nested in a coarser 3 km resolution model. The in situ component involved four cruises, including a large-scale multidisciplinary campaign with two research vessels in 2010. This review concentrates on the physics results of LATEX, addressing three main subjects: (1) the investigation of the mesoscale to submesoscale processes. The eddies are elliptic, baroclinic, and anticyclonic; the strong thermal and saline front is density compensated. Their generation processes are studied; (2) the development of sampling strategies for their direct observations. LATEX has implemented an adaptive strategy Lagrangian tool, with a reference software available on the web, to perform offshore campaigns in a Lagrangian framework; (3) the quantification of horizontal mixing and cross-shelf exchanges. Lateral diffusivity coefficients, calculated in various ways including a novel technique, are in the range classically encountered for their associated scales. Cross-shelf fluxes have been calculated, after retrieving the near-inertial oscillation contribution. Further perspectives are discussed, especially for the ongoing challenge of studying submesoscale features remotely and from in situ data.     

NUMERICAL STUDY ON THE MIXING OF UNSORTED SEDIMENT PARTICLES DISCHARGED INTO A CROSS-FLOW BY MULTIPHASE PARTICLE-IN-CELL （MP-PIC） METHOD

The mixing characteristics of dredged sediments of variable size discharged into cross-flow are studied by an Eulerian-Lagrangian method. A three-dimensional (3D) numerical model has been developed by using the modified k-ε parameterization for the turbulence in fluid phase/water and a Lagrangian method for the solid phase/sediments. In the model the wake turbulence induced by sediments has been included as additional source and sink terms in the k-ε model; and the trajectories of the sediments are tracked by the Lagrangian method in which the sediment drift velocities in cross-flow are computed by a multiphase particle-in-cell (MP-PIC) method and the diffusion process is approximated by a random walk model. The hydrodynamic behavior of dumped sediment cloud is governed by the total buoyancy on the cloud, the drag force on each particle and velocity of cross-flow. The cross-flow destroys more or less the double vortices occurred in stagnant ambience and dominates the longitudinal movement of sediment cloud. The computed results suggest satisfactory agreement by comparison with the experimental results of laboratory.     

Water exchange between the inner and outer archipelago areas of the Finnish Archipelago Sea in the Baltic Sea

Ocean Dynamics - We studied the water age and transport of passive tracers in the Archipelago Sea, Baltic Sea, using the COHERENS 3D hydrodynamic model and the OpenDrift Lagrangian particle model....     

Instability of planetary waves in a high vertical resolution model

Abstract

A high vertical resolution model is used to examine the instability of a baroclinic zonal flow and a finite amplitude topographically forced wave. Two families of unstable modes are found, consisting of zonally propagating most unstable modes, and stationary unstable modes. The former have time scale and spatial structure similar to baroclinic synoptic disturbances, but are localized in space due to interaction with the zonally asymmetric forcing. These modes transport heat efficiently in both the zonal and meridional directions. The second family of stationary unstable modes has characteristics of modes of low frequency variability of the atmosphere. They have time scales of 10 days and longer, and are of planetary scale with an equivalent barotropic vertical structure. The horizontal structure resembles blocking flows. They are maintained by available potential energy of the basic wave, and have large zonal heat fluxes. The results for both families of modes are interpreted in terms of an interaction between forcing and baroclinic instability to create favoured regions for eddy development. Applications to baroclinic planetary waves are also considered.     

The future of the western Baltic Sea: two possible scenarios

Globally coupled climate models are generally capable of reproducing the observed trends in the globally averaged atmospheric temperature. However, the global models do not perform as well on regional scales. Here, we present results from four 100-year, high-resolution ocean model experiments (resolution less than 1 km) for the western Baltic Sea. The forcing is taken from a regional atmospheric model and a regional ocean model, imbedded into two global greenhouse gas emission scenarios, A1B and B1, for the period of 2000 to 2100 with each two realisations. Two control runs from 1960 to 2000 are used for validation. For both scenarios, the results show a warming with an increase of 0.5–2.5 K at the sea surface and 0.7–2.8 K below 40 m. The simulations further indicate a decrease in salinity by 1.5–2 practical salinity units. The increase in water temperature leads to a prolongation of heat waves based on present-day thresholds. This amounts to a doubling or even tripling of the heat wave duration. The simulations show a decrease in inflow events (barotropic/baroclinic), which will affect the deepwater generation and ventilation of the central Baltic Sea. The high spatial resolution allows us to diagnose the inflow events and the mechanism that will cause future changes. The reduction in barotropic inflow events correlates well with the increase in westerly winds. The changes in the baroclinic inflows can be consistently explained by the reduction of calm wind periods and thus a weakening of the necessary stratification in the western Baltic Sea and the Danish Straits.     

Mechanism of collision model for bedload transport

The current study introduces a new particle–particle collision model as well as a classical particle–wall collision model to simulate the process of bedload transport. Large eddy simulation and two-way coupling Lagrangian point–particle models also are applied. Flow conditions for all simulations are done based on previous experiments and four comparison cases are studied. The bedload function result obtained using this model agrees with the previous studies, which proves that the model is reasonable and effective in dealing with bedload transport in turbulent flow. Otherwise, failure to consider the particle–particle collision, Basset force, or Saffman lift force in the model lead to underestimating the bedload transport rate.     

Eddy diffusivity derived from drifter data for dispersion model applications

Ocean transport and dispersion processes are at the present time simulated using Lagrangian stochastic models coupled with Eulerian circulation models that are supplying analyses and forecasts of the ocean currents at unprecedented time and space resolution. Using the Lagrangian approach, each particle displacement is described by an average motion and a fluctuating part. The first one represents the advection associated with the Eulerian current field of the circulation models while the second one describes the sub-grid scale diffusion. The focus of this study is to quantify the sub-grid scale diffusion of the Lagrangian models written in terms of a horizontal eddy diffusivity. Using a large database of drifters released in different regions of the Mediterranean Sea, the Lagrangian sub-grid scale diffusion has been computed, by considering different regimes when averaging statistical quantities. In addition, the real drifters have been simulated using a trajectory model forced by OGCM currents, focusing on how the Lagrangian properties are reproduced by the simulated trajectories.     

Comparing 2D capabilities of HEC-RAS and LISFLOOD-FP on complex topography

ABSTRACT

This study evaluates and compares two-dimensional (2D) numerical models of different complexities by testing them on a floodplain inundation event that occurred on the Secchia River (Italy). We test 2D capabilities of LISFLOOD-FP and HEC-RAS (5.0.3), implemented using various grid sizes (25–100 m) based on 1-m DEM resolution. As expected, the best results were shown by the higher-resolution grids (25 m) for both models, which is justified by the complex terrain of the area. However, the coarser resolution simulations (50 and 100 m) performed virtually identically compared to the high-resolution simulations. Nevertheless, the spatial distribution of flood characteristics varies: the 50 and 100 m results of LISFLOOD-FP and HEC-RAS misestimated flood extent and water depth in selected control areas (built-up zones). We suggest that the specific terrain of the area can cause ambiguities in large-scale modelling, while providing plausible results in terms of the overall model performance.     

Strömungsdynamische Untersuchungen im Zürich- und im Luganersee Ein Vergleich von Feldmessungen mit Resultaten theoretischer Modelle

Density distribution and temperature and current data which were measured in Lake of Zürich and Lake of Lugano in two summer field programs are scrutinized and interpreted by means of hydrodynamic models. Barotropic surface seiches and baroclinic internal seiches are studied using a one-and two-layer model and measured data permit identification of the respective resonant periods. Wind induced barotropic and baroclinic circulation dynamics is also studied by means of three-dimensional finite difference models of the hydrodynamic viscous equations on the rotating earth. In general the predictions of these models agree favorably with observed data.     

Effect of cross‐section interpolated bathymetry on 2D hydrodynamic model results in a large river

Two‐dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic models have been increasingly used to quantify aquatic habitat and stream processes, such as sediment transport, streambed morphological evolution, and inundation extents. Because river topography has a strong influence on predicted hydraulic conditions, 2D models require accurate and detailed bathymetric data of the stream channel and surrounding floodplains. Besides collection of mass points to construct high‐resolution three‐dimensional surfaces, bathymetries may be interpolated from cross‐sections. However, limited information is available on the effects of cross‐section spacing and the derived interpolated bathymetry on 2D model results in large river systems. Here, we investigated the effects of cross‐section spacing on flow properties simulated with 2D modeling at low, medium and high discharges in two morphologically different reaches, a simple (almost featureless with low sinuosity) and a complex (presenting pools, riffles, runs, contractions and expansions) reach of the Snake River (Idaho, USA), the tenth largest river in the United States in terms of drainage area. We compared the results from 2D models developed with complete channel bathymetry acquired with multibeam sonar data and photogrammetry, with 2D model results that were developed using interpolated topography from uniformly distributed transects. Results indicate that cross‐sections spaced equal to or greater than 2 times the average channel width (W*) smooths the bathymetry and suppresses flow structures. Conversely, models generated with cross‐sections spaced at 0.5 and 1 W* have stream flow properties, sediment mobility and spatial habitat distribution similar to those of the complete bathymetry. Furthermore, differences in flow properties between interpolated and complete topography models generally increase with discharge and with channel complexity. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling larval dispersal of the king scallop (Pecten maximus) in the English Channel: examples from the bay of Saint-Brieuc and the bay of Seine

The king scallop (Pecten maximus) is one of the most important benthic species of the English Channel as it constitutes the first fishery in terms of landings in this area. To support strategies of spatial fishery management, we develop a high-resolution biophysical model to study scallop dispersal in two bays along the French coasts of the English Channel (i.e. the bay of Saint-Brieuc and the bay of Seine) and to quantify the relative roles of local hydrodynamic processes, temperature-dependent planktonic larval duration (PLD) and active swimming behaviour (SB). The two bays are chosen for three reasons: (1) the distribution of the scallop stocks in these areas is well known from annual scallop stock surveys, (2) these two bays harbour important fisheries and (3) scallops in these two areas present some differences in terms of reproductive cycle and spawning duration. The English Channel currents and temperature are simulated for 10 years (2000–2010) with the MARS-3D code and then used by the Lagrangian module of MARS-3D to model the transport. Results were analysed in terms of larval distribution at settlement and connectivity rates. While larval transport in the two bays depended both on the tidal residual circulation and the wind-induced currents, the relative role of these two hydrodynamic processes varied among bays. In the bay of Saint-Brieuc, the main patterns of larval dispersal were due to tides, the wind being only a source of variability in the extent of larval patch and the local retention rate. Conversely, in the bay of Seine, wind-induced currents altered both the direction and the extent of larval transport. The main effect of a variable PLD in relation to the thermal history of each larva was to reduce the spread of dispersal and consequently increase the local retention by about 10 % on average. Although swimming behaviour could influence larval dispersal during the first days of the PLD when larvae are mainly located in surface waters, it has a minor role on larval distribution at settlement and retention rates. The analysis of the connectivity between subpopulations within each bay allows identifying the main sources of larvae which depend on both the characteristics of local hydrodynamics and the spatial heterogeneity in the reproductive outputs.     

Turbulence-particle interactions under surface gravity waves

The dispersion and transport of single inertial particles through an oscillatory turbulent aquatic environment are examined numerically by a Lagrangian particle tracking model using a series of idealised test cases. The turbulent mixing is incorporated into the Lagrangian model by the means of a stochastic scheme in which the inhomogeneous turbulent quantities are governed by a one-dimensional k- ε turbulence closure scheme. This vertical mixing model is further modified to include the effects of surface gravity waves including Coriolis-Stokes forcing, wave breaking, and Langmuir circulations. To simplify the complex interactions between the deterministic and the stochastic phases of flow, we assume a time-invariant turbulent flow field and exclude the hydrodynamic biases due to the effects of ambient mean current. The numerical results show that the inertial particles acquire perturbed oscillations traced out as time-varying sinking/rising orbits in the vicinity of the sea surface under linear and cnoidal waves and acquire a non-looping single arc superimposed with the high-frequency fluctuations beneath the nonlinear solitary waves. Furthermore, we briefly summarise some recipes through the course of this paper on the implementation of the stochastic particle tracking models to realistically describe the drift and suspension of inertial particles throughout the water column.     

First-principles derivation of reactive transport modeling parameters for particle tracking and PDE approaches

Both Eulerian and Lagrangian reactive transport simulations in natural media require selection of a parameter that controls the “promiscuity” of the reacting particles. In Eulerian models, measurement of this parameter may be difficult because its value will generally differ between natural (diffusion-limited) systems and batch experiments, even though both are modeled by reaction terms of the same form. And in Lagrangian models, there previously has been no a priori way to compute this parameter. In both cases, then, selection is typically done by calibration, or ad hoc. This paper addresses the parameter selection problem for Fickian transport by deriving, from first principles and D (the diffusion constant) the reaction-rate-controlling parameters for particle tracking (PT) codes and for the diffusion–reaction equation (DRE). Using continuous time random walk analysis, exact reaction probabilities are derived for pairs of potentially reactive particles based on D and their probability of reaction provided that they collocate. Simultaneously, a second PT scheme directly employing collocation probabilities is derived. One-to-one correspondence between each of D, the reaction radius specified for a PT scheme, and the DRE decay constant are then developed. These results serve to ground reactive transport simulations in their underlying thermodynamics, and are confirmed by simulations.     

BET_VH: exploring the influence of natural uncertainties on long-term hazard from tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei (Italy)

In this paper, we explore the effects of the intrinsic uncertainties upon long-term volcanic hazard by analyzing tephra fall hazard at Campi Flegrei, Italy, using the BET_VH model described in Marzocchi et al. (Bull Volcanol, 2010). The results obtained show that volcanic hazard based on the weighted average of all possible eruptive settings (i.e. size classes and vent locations) is significantly different from an analysis based on a single reference setting, as commonly used in volcanic hazard practice. The long-term hazard map for tephra fall at Campi Flegrei obtained here accounts for a wide spectrum of uncertainties which are usually neglected, largely reducing the bias intrinsically introduced by the choice of a specific reference setting. We formally develop and apply a general method to recursively integrate simulations from different models which have different characteristics in terms of spatial coverage, resolution and physical details. This outcome of simulations will be eventually merged with field data through the use of the BET_VH model.