四川省小流域泥石流危险性评价

泥石流危险性评价是泥石流防灾减灾的重要内容。本文以四川省为研究区,以DEM为数据源,通过提取水流方向,计算汇流累积量,实现四川省小流域划分。基于收集的已查明泥石流流域资料,分析了泥石流孕灾环境与成灾特点,选择流域高差、流域面积为指标,建立基于能量条件的潜势泥石流流域判识模型,对划分的小流域进行判识,识别出7798个小流域具备泥石流发生所需能量条件,面积为31.1×10⁴ km²,占四川省总面积的64.18 %。进而建立了泥石流危险性评价指标体系和可拓物元模型,开展了小流域泥石流危险性评价,划分了危险度等级,得到中度、高度、极高危险区的小流域个数分别为1946、1725和1002个,面积分别为9.1×10⁴、7.7×10⁴和3.4×10⁴ km²,中度以上危险区面积共20.2×10⁴ km2,占四川省总面积的41.67%。最后对评价结果可靠性和各等级泥石流危险区在各地市级行政区、各大流域的分布进行了分析。其结果对促进泥石流判识与危险性评价理论,区域泥石流防灾减灾与山区可持续发展等具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

Debris flow susceptibility analysis based on the combined impacts of antecedent earthquakes and droughts: a case study for cascade hydropower stations in the upper Yangtze River,China

The upper Yangtze River region is one of the most frequent debris flow areas in China. The study area contains a cascade of six large hydropower stations located along the river with total capacity of more than 70 million kilowatts. The purpose of the study was to determine potential and dynamic differences in debris flow susceptibility and intensity with regard to seasonal monsoon events. We analyzed this region’s debris flow history by examining the effective peak acceleration of antecedent earthquakes, the impacts of antecedent droughts, the combined effects of earthquakes and droughts, with regard to topography, precipitation, and loose solid material conditions. Based on these factors, we developed a debris flow susceptibility map. Results indicate that the entire debris flow susceptibility area is 167,500 km², of which 26,800 km² falls within the high susceptibility area, with 60,900 km² in medium and 79,800 km² are in low susceptibility areas. Three of the six large hydropower stations are located within the areas with high risk of debris flows. The synthetic zonation map of debris flow susceptibility for the study area corresponds with both the investigation data and actual distribution of debris flows. The results of debris flow susceptibility provide base-line data for mitigating, assessing, controlling and monitoring of debris flows hazards.     

Artificial Neural Network-based prediction of glacial debris flows in the ParlungZangbo Basin,southeastern Tibetan Plateau,China

Accurate prediction on geological hazards can prevent disaster events in advance and greatly reduce property losses and life casualties.Glacial debris flows are the most serious hazards in southeastern Tibet in China due to their complexity in formation mechanism and the difficulty in prediction.Data collected from 102 glacier debris flow events from 31 gullies since 1970 and regional meteorological data from 1970 to 2019 in ParlungZangbo River Basin in southeastern Tibet were used for Artificial Neural Network(ANN)-based prediction of glacial debris flows.The formation mechanism of glacial debris flows in the ParlungZangbo Basin was systematically analyzed,and the calculations involving the meteorological data and disaster events were conducted by using the statistical methods and two layers fully connected neural networks.The occurrence probabilities and scales of glacial debris flows(small,medium,and large)were predicted,and promising results have been achieved.Through the proposed model calculations,a prediction accuracy of 78.33%was achieved for the scale of glacial debris flows in the study area.The prediction accuracy for both large-and medium-scale debris flows are higher than that for small-scale debris flows.The debris flow scale and the probability of occurrence increase with increasing rainfall and temperature.In addition,the K-fold cross-validation method was used to verify the reliability of the model.The average accuracy of the model calculated under this method is about 93.3%,which validates the proposed model.Practices have proved that the combination of ANN and disaster events can provide sound prediction on geological hazards under complex conditions.     

Non-structural mitigation programs for sediment-related disasters after the Chichi Earthquake in Taiwan

Following the Chichi Earthquake (M_L=7.3) in 1999, sediment-related disasters, such as landslides and debris flows, have become more frequent in Taiwan. Because engineering structures cannot be fully and rapidly emplaced, the government has initiated non-structural hazard mitigation programs. Initially, community debris flow evacuation drills were promoted in 2000. Typhoon Toraji caused numerous debris flow events in July 2001, and some communities evacuated according to the drills, significantly reducing the numbers of possible casualties. Based on that result, the government expanded the program for evacuation drills. Secondly, the early warning system created after the Chichi Earthquake will prevent many potential future casualties. Rainfall threshold values for debris flow warnings in different areas are determined from information received from local weather stations and modified for local geomorphologic situations. Realtime information is gradually being integrated to create a debris flow disaster warning system, the goal of which is to provide warnings to zones in which debris flows are likely. The warning system was launched in 2005 and has two levels of alarms: yellow and red. The final, red alarm triggers enforced evacuation. Overall, the decrease in casualties from debris flows during the decade after the Chichi Earthquake is not the result of a decrease in number or severity of sediment related disasters, but is more directly related to the gradually improved early warning and evacuation system. However, the compound hazards resulting from Typhoon Morakot in 2009 remind us of the ongoing need for improving the existing mitigation system.     

The critical rainfall characteristics for torrents and debris flows in the Wenchuan earthquake stricken area

Critical rainfall assessment is a very important tool for hazard management of torrents and debris flows in mountainous areas. The Wenchuan Earthquake 2008 caused huge casualties and property damages in the earthquake-stricken area, which also generated large quantities of loose solid materials and increased occurrence probabilities of debris flows. There is an urgent need to quantify the critical rainfall distribution in the area so that better hazard management could be planned and if real time rainfall forecast is available, torrent and debris flow early-warning could be issued in advance. This study is based on 49-year observations （1954-2003） of up to 678 torrent and debris flow events. Detailed contour maps of 1 hour and 24 hour critical rainfalls have been generated （Due to the data limitation, there was insufficient 10 minute critical rainfall to make its contour map）. Generally, the contour maps from 1 hour and 24 hours have similar patterns. Three zones with low, medium and high critical rainfalls have been identified. The characteristics of the critical rainfall zones are linked with the local vegetation cover and land forms. Further studies and observations are needed to validate the finding and improve the contour maps.     

泥石流危险范围预测模型及在昆明东川城区的应用

结合泥石流危险范围模型实验数据,运用多元回归分析方法探讨了泥石流危险范围预测,并进行了误差分析。以昆明市东川城区后山3条泥石流沟为例,运用该模型对其危险范围进行了预测分析,为东川城区泥石流防灾提供了科学依据。     

泰安市崩塌、滑坡、泥石流发育特征及防治对策浅析

泰安市地处鲁中山区,地形地质条件较复杂,是山东省崩塌、滑坡、泥石流地质灾害的多发区,在强降雨条件下,地质灾害频繁发生,制约了当地社会经济的发展.本文通过对研究区崩塌、滑坡、泥石流发育现状、地质灾害特征进行统计分析,从地貌特征、岩土体特征、地质构造、降水、植被、人类工程活动等方面,深入阐述了崩塌、滑坡、泥石流与地质环境条...     

Comparison between FLO-2D and Debris-2D on the application of assessment of granular debris flow hazards with case study

Numerical simulation has been widely applied to the assessment of debris flow hazards.In East Asia and especially Taiwan,the most widely used numerical programs are FLO-2D and Debris-2D.Although these two programs are applied to the same engineering tasks,they are different in many aspects.These two programs were compared according to their fundamental theories,input and output data,computational algorithms and results.Using both programs,the simulations of a real debris flow with abundant granular material induced by landslides at Xinfa village in southern Taiwan are performed for comparison.The simulation results show that Debris2D gives better assessment in hazard area delineating and flow depth predicting.Therefore,Debris-2D is better for simulation of granular debris flows.     

Effectiveness analysis of the prediction of regional debris flow susceptibility in post-earthquake and drought site

Debris-flow disasters occurred frequently after the Mw 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on 12 May 2008 in Sichuan Province, China. Based on historical accounts of debris-flow disaster events, it found that debris flow occurrence is closely related to the impact of earthquakes and droughts, because earthquakedrought activities can increase the loose solid materials, which can transform into debris flows under the effect of rainstorms. Based on the analysis of historical earthquake activity(frequency, magnitude and location), drought indexes and the trend of climate change(amount of rainfall), a prediction method was established, and the regional debris flow susceptibility was predicted. Furthermore, in a debris flow-susceptible site, effective warning and monitoring are essential not only from an economicpoint of view but are also considered as a frontline approach to alleviate hazards. The advantages of the prediction and early monitoring include(1) the acquired results being sent to the central government for policy making;(2) lives and property in mountainous areas can be protected, such as the 570 residents in the Aizi valley, who evacuated successfully before debris flows in 2012;(3) guiding the government to identify the areas of disasters and the preparation for disaster prevention and mitigation, such as predicting disasters in high-risk areas in the period 2012-2017, helping the government to recognize the development trend of disasters;(4) the quantitative prediction of regional debris-flow susceptibility, such as after the Wenchuan earthquake, can promote scientific and sustainable development and socioeconomic planning in earthquake-struck areas.     

Combined Impacts of Antecedent Earthquakes and Droughts on Disastrous Debris Flows

This paper describes a study on the combined impacts of antecedent earthquakes and droughts on disastrous debris flows.This is a novel attempt in quantifying such impacts using the effective peak acceleration（EPA）（to represent earthquakes） and standardized precipitation index（SPI）（to represent droughts）.The study is based on the analysis of 116 disastrous debris flow events occurred in Mainland China in the last 100 years covering a wide spectrum of climate types and landforms.It has been found that the combined impacts from earthquakes and droughts on disastrous debris flows do exist and vary from low to very high according to different climate conditions and terrains.The impacts from earthquakes increase with the increased terrain relief,and the impacts from droughts are strongest in semi-humid climate condition（with reduced impacts in humid and semi-arid /arid climate conditions）.Hypothetical explanations on the study discoveries have been proposed.This study reveals the possible reasons for the disastrous debris flow distributions around the world and has significant implications in paleo-climate-seismicanalysis and disastrous debris flow risk management.     

Curvature derived from LiDAR digital elevation models as simple indicators of debris-flow susceptibility

To mitigate the damage caused by debris flows resulting from heavy precipitation and to aid in evacuation plan preparation, areas at risk should be mapped on a scale appropriate for affected individuals and communities. We tested the effectiveness of simply identifying debris-flow hazards through automated derivation of surface curvatures using LiDAR digital elevation models. We achieved useful correspondence between plan curvatures and areas of existing debris-flow damage in two localities in Japan using the analysis of digital elevation models(DEMs). We found that plan curvatures derived from 10 m DEMs may be useful to indicate areas that are susceptible to debris flow in mountainous areas. In residential areas located on gentle sloping debris flow fans, the greatest damage to houses was found to be located in the elongated depressions that are connected to mountain stream valleys. Plan curvaturederived from 5 m DEM was the most sensitive indicators for susceptibility to debris flows.     

Debris flow in metropolitan area — 2011 Seoul debris flow

A large number of debris flows occurred simultaneously at around 8:30 to 8:50 a.m. on July 27, 2011, at the center of Seoul, Korea. This area is located in the southern part of Seoul and is a densely populated district. As a result of the debris flow event, 16 people were killed, 30 houses were buried, and 116 houses were damaged around Umyeon Mountain, a relatively small mountain with a height of 312.6 m. Since the debris flow event, field investigations on the initiation and transportation zones of debris flows have been carried out. Rainfall data were collected from the automatic weather stations (AWSs) which are operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Video files recorded by residents were also acquired and used to analyze the flow characteristics of the debris flow. Field investigation shows that about 40 debris flows occurred around Umyeon Mountain and most of the debris flows were initiated by small slope failures. The effects of the precipitation that triggered the debris flows were analyzed as well. A landslide hazard map which considers slope gradient and aspect, strength of soil, hazard record, rainfall conditions, and vegetation, was constructed and compared with the initiation zones of debris flows.     

Risk assessment of highways affected by debris flows in Wenchuan earthquake area

Since the Wenchuan earthquake in China on May 12^th, 2008, highways in earthquake-affected areas have been frequently interrupted by debris flows. We analyzed the hazard effect modes and damage processes along highways and developed three key indexes, scale of debris flows, deposits on highways and river blockage, to describe quantitatively the highway disasters. By combining the empirical methods and the actual terrain conditions, we proposed new methods to determine the value of hazard indexes. In addition, we used the economic value and resistance of highway as vulnerability assessment indexes, then determined the specific subindexes for the subgrade, bridges and culverts, and developed a way for the quantified vulnerability zoning. Moreover, we proposed the assessment and mapping methods for highway risk. The risk is described into 5 grades: extremely low risk, low risk, middle risk, high risk and extremely high risk. We applied these methods in a case study carried out on provincial highway S303 from Yingxiu Town to Wolong Town, in Wenchuan County. Analysis of debris flow risk for the whole highway, showed that the total length of highway in extremely low risk area was 28.26 km, 4.83 km in low risk area, 8.0 km in middle risk area, 3.65 km in high risk area, and 3.06 km in extremely high risk area. The assessment results are consistent with the field survey data which reflected the disaster situation. This risk method can be used objectively to evaluate the debris-flow risk along highways, and is useful for highway reconstruction in mountainous areas suffering from active debris flows.     

全球温升1.5℃和2.0℃情景下中国降雨诱发地质灾害危险性和人口暴露度评估研究

气候变化情景下极端降水事件的频次和强度预估呈增加趋势,这会导致全球部分地区极端降雨诱发地质灾害风险的增加。本文基于中国降雨诱发地质灾害易发性模型和不同地貌分区的累积事件降雨量-降雨历时阈值曲线,采用最新的CMIP6全球气候模式多模式集合结果,基于全球温升目标情景的视角,从地质灾害空间易发性和发生频次两方面,探讨温升情景下中国地质灾害危险性的可能变化及其对暴露人口的潜在影响。结果表明,CMIP6多模式集合预估的多年平均降水在温升1.5℃和2.0℃情景下相比基准时期可能增加5.4%～9.5%,导致中等至极高地质灾害易发区范围预估增加0.33%～0.74%,由于预估的极端降水事件增加,地质灾害发生频次预估增加7.0%～11.2%,进一步综合未来人口空间分布,潜在地质灾害暴露人口可能增加6.20亿人次（18.90%）和4.26亿人次（12.97%）。各地貌分区未来情景下地质灾害危险性预估增加且存在显著的空间异质性,温升2.0℃情景下中等至极高易发性范围相比基准时期增加0.71%～1.28%,地质灾害发生频次预估增加1.2%～15.6%,其中,青藏高原区地质灾害危险性增加最明显。综合考虑未来人口...     

Two-dimensional numerical model for debris flows in the Jiangjia Gully, Yunnan Province

Debris flows are recurrent natural hazards in many mountainous regions.This paper presents a numerical study on the propagation of debris flows in natural erodible open channels,in which the bed erosion and sedimentation processes are important.Based on the Bingham fluid theory,a mathematical model of the two-dimensional non-constant debris flow is developed.The governing equations include the continuity and momentum conservation equations of debris flow,the sediment convection-diffusion equation,the bed erosion-deposition equation and the bed-sediment size gradation adjustment equation.The yield stress and shear stress components are included to describe the dynamic rheological properties.The upwind control-volume Finite Volume Method (FVM) is applied to discretize the convection terms.The improved SIMPLE algorithm with velocity-free-surface coupled correction is developed to solve the equations on non-orthogonal,quadrilateral grids.The model is applied to simulate a debris flow event in Jiangjia Gully,Yunnan Province and to predict the flow pattern and bed erosion-deposition processes.The results show the effectiveness of the proposed numercial model in debris flow simulation and potential hazard analysis.     

Magnitude-frequency relationship of debris flows in the Jiangjia Gully,China

The magnitude-frequency(MF) relationship of debris flows is the basis for engineering designs and risk quantification. However, because of the lack of debris flow monitoring data, research progress in this area has been relatively slow. The MF relationship of debris flows in Jiangjia Gully, Yunnan Province was evaluated based on a regression analysis of 178 debris flow events that occurred from 1987-2004. The magnitude-cumulative frequency(MCF) relationship of the debris flows in the Jiangjia Gully is consistent with the linear logarithmic transformation function. Moreover, observed data for debris flows in Hunshui Gully of Yunnan Province and Huoshao Gully, Liuwan Gully, and Niwan Gully of Gansu Province were used to verify the function. The results showed that the MCF relationship of highfrequency debris flows is consistent with the power law equation, although the regression coefficients in the equation are considerably different. Further analysis showed a strong correlation between the differences in the constants and the drainage area and daily maximum precipitation.     

Forecast method of multimode system for debris flow risk assessment in Qingping Town, Sichuan Province, China

The Wenchuan Earthquake of May 12,2008 triggered large numbers of geo-hazards.The heavy rain on 13 August 2010 triggered debris flows with total volume of more than 6 million cubic meters and the debris flows destroyed 500 houses and infrastructure built after the Wenchuan Earthquake.The study area Qingping Town was located in the northwestern part of the Sichuan Basin of China,which needs the second reconstructions and the critical evaluation of debris flow.This study takes basin as the study unit and defines collapse,landslide and debris flow hazard as a geo-hazard system.A multimode system composed of principal series system and secondary parallel system were established to evaluate the hazard grade of debris flow in 138 drainage basins of Qingping Town.The evaluation result shows that 30.43% of study basins(42 basins) and 24.58% of study area,are in extremely high or high hazard grades,and both percentage of basin quantity and percentage of area in different hazard grades decrease with the increase of hazard grade.According to the geo-hazard data from the interpretation of unmanned plane image with a 0.5-m resolution and field investigation after the Wenchuan Earthquake and 8.13 Big Debris Flow,the ratio of landslides and collapses increased after the Wenchuan Earthquake and the ratios of extremely high or high hazard grades were more than moderate or low hazard grades obviously.23 geo-hazards after8.13 Big Debris Flow in Qingping town region all occurred in basins with extremely high or high hazard grades,and 9 debris flows were in basins with extremely high hazard grade.The model of multimode system for critical evaluation could forecast not only the collapse and landslide but also the debris flow precisely when the basin was taken as the study unit.     

基于栅格最大值法的县域综合地质灾害建模

四川省地形高低悬殊, 岩性构造发育, 各类地质灾害频发, 开展地质灾害易发性评价具有重要意义。崩塌、泥石流属于广义上的滑坡, 以四川省丹巴县为例, 从考虑不同滑坡类别的区域性地质灾害易发性出发综合考虑崩塌、滑坡、泥石流的空间概率分布。基于ArcGIS通过高精度数字高程模型共选取高程、坡度等10个地质灾害关键控制因素, 采用信息量模型对综合地质灾害进行了易发性评价。最终通过ArcGIS的单元统计(Cell Statistics)功能实现多个栅格图层最大值法合成综合易发性, 进一步利用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)验证单种滑坡类别易发性模型的精度。按照自然断点法将研究区划分为极低、低、中、高、极高易发区, 高易发区和极高易发区主要集中分布在章谷镇、太平桥乡以及甲居镇等地。研究结果证明信息量模型能对单类地质灾害进行评价, 栅格最大值法是获取综合易发性的一种有效评价方法。      

Effects of spillway types on debris flow trajectory and scour behind a sabo dam

Debris flows are one of the common natural hazards in mountainous areas. They often cause devastating damage to the lives and property of local people. The sabo dam construction along a debris flow valley is considered to be a useful method for hazard mitigation. Previous work has concentrated on the different types of sabo dams such as close-type sabo dam, open-type sabo dam. However, little attention has been paid to the spillway structure of sabo dam. In the paper, a new type of spillway structure with lateral contraction was proposed. Debris flow patterns under four different spillway structures were investigated. The projection theory was employed to predict trajectory of debris flow out from the spillway and to estimate the incident angle and terminal velocity before it plunged into the scour hole behind the sabo dam. The results indicated that the estimated data were in good agreement with the experimental ones. The discrepancy between the estimated and experimental values of main parameters remained below 21.82% (relative error). Additionally, the effects of debris flow scales under different spillway structures were considered to study the scour law. Although the debris flow pattern and scour law behind the sabo dam under different operating conditions was analyzed in this paper, further study on the scour mechanism and the maximum scour depth estimation based on scour theory is still required in the future.     

GIS tools for preliminary debris-flow assessment at regional scale

The assessment of the areas endangered by debris flows is a major issue in the context of mountain watershed management. Depending on the scale of analysis, different methods are required for the assessment of the areas exposed to debris flows. While 2-D numerical models are advised for detailed mapping of inundation areas on individual alluvial fans, preliminary recognition of hazard areas at the regional scale can be adequately performed by less data-demanding methods, which enable priority ranking of channels and alluvial fans at risk by debris flows. This contribution focuses on a simple and fast procedure that has been implemented for regional-scale identification of debris-flow prone channels and prioritization of the related alluvial fans. The methodology is based on the analysis of morphometric parameters derived from Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). Potential initiation sites of debris flows are identified as the DEM cells that exceed a threshold of slope-dependent contributing area. Channel reaches corresponding to debris flows propagation, deceleration and stopping conditions are derived from thresholds of local slope. An analysis of longitudinal profiles is used for the computation of the runout distance of debris flows. Information on erosion-resistant bedrock channels and sediment availability surveyed in the field are taken into account in the applications. A set of software tools was developed and made available (https://github.com/HydrogeomorphologyTools) to facilitate the application of the procedure. This approach, which has been extensively validated by means of field checks, has been extensively applied in the eastern Italian Alps. This contribution discusses potential and limitations of the method in the frame of the management of small mountain watersheds.