长白山天池火山潜在喷发危险性讨论

根据吉林省新生代以来火山喷溢活动的时空演化历史，特别是全新世以来火山活动频民强度变化特征，以及现代喷发活动史记资料，结合１０多年火山动态观测数据，讨论了长白山天池潜在喷发的危险程度，认为其灾害性潜在喷发危险的时间尺度仍属于地质范畴。     

"琼北火山探查及喷发危险性研究"项目成果介绍

本文详细介绍了"火山灾害预警研究"项目的立项背景、目标、所开展的主要工作、取得的成果、研究成果的社会效益和对该领域研究未来工作的展望。     

龙岗火山喷发危险性初探

阐述了龙岗火山的地质构造及历史喷发特点,重点分析了龙岗火山区的现今地震活动性及地壳变形特点。结果表明,龙岗火山区现今地震活动性在不断增强,震源深度逐渐变浅;地壳形变有明显变化,火山活动趋于加强,未来潜在喷发的危险性不容忽视。     

琼北射气岩浆喷发力学机制探讨

琼北第四纪火山区分布着为数众多、大小不一的射气岩浆喷发成因的低平火山口。上升的岩浆遇到地下水会发生射气岩浆喷发,形成地表出露的低平火山口,并伴随出现基浪堆积物。根据低平火山口的半径、爆炸发生时上覆地层的厚度、岩浆与地下水接触面的半径等参数,运用弹性力学基本原理建立了简单的喷发模型,初步模拟爆破冲击力与上述各参数之间的关系和变化规律,并计算出上覆地层中任一点的应力状态,初次探讨了射气岩浆喷发的力学机制     

长白山天池火山的危险性和火山碎屑流灾害评估

本文以长白山天池火山１２１５ＡＤ大喷发为参照系,采用了“以古论今”的历史分析方法,对天池火山的危险性和火山碎屑流灾害进行了评估。认为长白山天池火山是具有潜在喷发能力的高危险火山,给出了长白山天池火山的火山碎屑流灾害预测分区图,为各级政府部门合理制定土地使用规划和防灾活动提供了理论依据。     

琼北全新世火山区火山系统的划分与锥体结构参数研究

根据琼北全新世火山区内火山作用产物的成因类型与喷发物理过程的野外考察结果 ,结合航片解译资料 ,确定了该区火山作用的发育特征、形成期次与规模 ,并以此作为进一步评价火山灾害的基础 ;根据锥体形成后物理降解作用与时间的关系 ,讨论了琼北全新世火山区众多锥体结构参数之间的关系。研究结果为 :琼北全新世火山区分为 4个火山系统 ,即西北部的马鞍岭台地火山系统、东南部的雷虎岭盾片状火山系统、夹于二者之间的浩昌单成因火山系统和NW向裂隙式喷发系统。工作区内琼北新生代火山共计 5 9个 ,火山结构类型可分为火山锥、熔岩穹、熔岩湖与低平火山口等。在火山锥中 ,依据锥体组成与结构的差异又可进一步分为岩渣锥、溅落锥和混合锥等碎屑锥。琼北近代火山锥体高度多 <4 0m ,绝大多数锥体的底部直径 <5 0 0m。锥体底部直径和火口坑深度之间具有明显的正相关关系。由锥体底部直径与火口缘直径的差值与锥体高度投点图可以明显地区分出早期的低平火山口和晚期的不同类型锥体     

琼北火山喷发物风化特征的研究与应用

通过X光衍射、扫描电镜和能谱分析发现 ,琼北雷虎岭 -马鞍岭地区火山喷发物风化形成的次生黏土主要是球状和不规则球状富铁埃洛石 ,随着风化时间的增长 ,埃洛石的转变顺序为 10 埃洛石→ ( 10 + 7 )埃洛石→ 7 埃洛石 ,据此推测该地区火山喷发的先后顺序为雷虎岭东南→儒红村北→儒红村东。喷发年代在 6 0 0 0～ 12 0 0 0aBP之间     

黑龙江五大连池火山区气体地球化学特征

根据五大连池火山区的气体地球化学特征,分析了二氧化碳气的生成条件和成因,对火山区CO_2的泄出量进行了概算。通过一年定点观测,查明了南泉和二龙眼泉各气体组分的动态变化特征,认为南泉氢和氦于1988年2月～4月出现的大幅度异常和附近的小震活动有关     

THE VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES AND HAZARD PREDICTION OF WUDALIANCHI VOLCANIC BELT

More than 40 late Cenozoic monogenetic volcanoes formed a volcanic belt striking NNW from Keluo, through Wudalianchi to Erkeshan in NE China. These volcanoes belong to a unified volcano system, namely Wudalianchi volcanic belt(WVB for short). Based on the volcanic evolution history and the nature of monogenetic volcanic system, we estimate that the volcanic system of WVB is still active and has the potential to erupt again. Hence, this paper studied the temporal-spatial distribution and volcanic eruption types to evaluate the possible eruption hazard types and areas of influence in the future. Volcanic field characteristics and K-Ar radiometric data suggest two episodes of volcanism in the WVB, the Pliocene to early Pleistocene volcanism(4.59~1.00MaBP)and the middle Pleistocene to Holocene volcanism(0.79Ma to now). The early episode volcanoes are distributed only in the north of WVB(mainly in Keluo volcanic field), featured by effusive eruption, and mainly formed monogenetic shield, whose base diameter is large and slope is gentle. However, the late episode eruptions occurred over the entire WVB. The explosive eruption in this stage formed numerous relatively intact scoria cones of explosive origin. Meanwhile the effusive eruption formed widely distributed lava flows. Both effusive eruption and explosive eruption are common in WVB. The effusive eruption formed monogenetic shields and lava flows. The resulting pahoehoe lava, aa lava and block lava appeared in WVB. There are three end-member types of explosive eruption driven by magmatic volatile. Violent Strombolian eruption has the highest degree of fragmentation and mass flux, characterized by eruption column. Strombolian eruption has the high degree of fragmentation, but low mass flux, featured by pulse eruption. Hawaiian eruption has low degree of fragmentation, but high in mass flux, generating large scoria cones. In addition, this paper for the first time found phreatomagmatic eruption in WVB, which formed tuff cone. Transitional eruptions are also common in WVB, which have certain characteristics among the end-member eruption types. Besides, certain volcanoes displayed multiple explosive eruption types during the whole eruption span. According to the volcanic temporal-spatial distribution and eruption characteristics in WVB, the potential volcanic hazards in future are constrained. It appears that the violent Strombolian and Strombolian eruption will not have significant impact on aviation safety in the vertical direction. In the radial direction, the ejected volcanic bomb can reach as far as 1km from the vents and the fallout tephra may disperse downwind over a distance ranging from 1~10km. The major hazard of Hawaiian eruption and effusive eruption comes from lava flow, and its migration distance may reach 3.0~13.5km for pahoehoe lava and 2.9~14.9km for aa lava. The base surge in phreatomagmatic eruption can reach a velocity of 200~400m/s, and the migration distance is around 10km. This is a big threat that people should pay more attention to and take precautions in advance. Besides, it is necessary to strengthen the real-time observation of the volcanoes in the WVB, especially those formed in the late episode as well as near the active fault.     

SITE EVALUATION AND VOLCANIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR THE NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS OF CHINA

Starting from the 1980's of last century, China has launched the national plan of constructing nuclear power plants along the coastline region in eastern China. Currently, in some of these candidate sites, nuclear facilities have been installed and are in operation, but some other nuclear power plants are still under construction or in site evaluation. In 2012 the Atomic Energy Commission issued the specific guide for volcanic hazards in site evaluation for nuclear installations(IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG-21), which was prepared under the IAEA's program for safety standards. It supplements and provides recommendations for meeting the requirements for nuclear installations established in the safety requirements publication on site evaluation for nuclear installations in relation to volcanic hazards. To satisfy the safety standards for volcanic hazard, we follow the IAEA SSG-21 guidelines and develop a simple and practical diffusion program in order to evaluate the potential volcanic hazard caused by tephra fallout from the explosive eruptions. In this practice, we carried out a case study of the active volcanoes in north Hainan Province so as to conduct the probabilistic analysis of the potential volcanic hazard in the surrounding region. The Quaternary volcanism in north Hainan Island, so-called Qiongbei volcanic field is characterized by multi periodic activity, in which the most recent eruption is dated at about 4 000a BP. According to IAEA SSG-21, a capable volcano is one for which both 1)a future eruption or related volcanic event is credible; and 2)such an event has the potential to produce phenomena that may affect a site. Therefore, the Qiongbei volcanic field is capable of producing hazardous phenomena that may reach the potential nuclear power plants around. The input parameters for the simulation of tephra fallout from the future eruption of the Qiongbei volcanic field, such as the size, density and shape of the tephra, the bulk volume and column height, the diffusion parameter P(z), wind direction and intensity, were obtained by field investigation and laboratory analysis. We carried out more than 10000 tephra fallout simulations using a statistical dataset of wind profiles which are obtained from China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System(CMDSSS). Tephra fallout hazard probability maps were constructed for tephra thickness threshold of 1cm. Our results show that the tephra produced by the future large-scale explosive eruption from the Qiongbei volcanic field can affect the area in a range about 250km away from the eruption center. In summary, the current key technical parameters related to volcanic activity and potential hazards in IAEA/SSG-21 guidelines, such as 10Ma volcanic life cycle and 1×10^-7 volcanic disaster screening probability threshold, etc. are based on the volcanic activity characteristics in the volcanic island arc system. In consideration of the relatively low level of volcanic activity compared with volcanic island arc system due to the different tectonic background of volcanism in mainland China, the time scale of volcanic disaster assessment in IAEA SSG-21 guideline is relatively high for volcanoes in mainland China. We suggest that the study of "conceptual model" of volcanic activity should be strengthened in future work to prove that there is no credible potential for future eruptions, so that these volcanoes should be screened out at early stage instead of further evaluation by probabilistic model.     

城市活动断裂探测和地震危险性评价问题

城市范围内直下型活动断裂突发错动产生的直下型大地震 ,直接威胁城市和人民生命财产的安全。城市活动断裂探测和地震危险性评价是为城市减灾服务的一项系统工程 ,也是活动构造研究面临的一项新的工作。这一工作的核心是要解决城市范围内的断裂定位、断裂最新活动、断裂的深部背景、断裂的地震危险性和地面错动危险性及减灾对策。为了更好地理解这一问题 ,作者用“有没有、活不活、深不深 ,震不震 ,错不错 ,好对策”这 6句话来表示其核心内容。文中对这些问题作了具体的说明     

河北北部场地特征及震害预测

通过对河北北部地区的场地特征与震害关系的研究,结合该区地震活动程度的预测意见,对河北北部地区今后可能出现的震害类型进行了初步估计,同时为减轻该区地震灾害提出了相应的对策。     

海南地下流体台网现状分析及改进建议

依据中国地震局地下流体学科技术协调组制定的《地下流体观测站(点)质量与效能评估方案》,从5个方面对海南省地下流体3个固定观测网三大测项的监测效能进行了评估,较全面地分析了海南地震地下流体监测网存在的问题,并针对存在问题提出了建议性的改进措施。     

强地震动估计和地震危险性评定

本文介绍了近几年获取的强震记录中显示出的地震动特征，诸如近断裂的破裂方向性效应、上盘效应、影响地震波传播的地壳波导效应、沉积盆地的放大效应和盆地边缘效应；归纳了强地震动估计的三种方法，简要综述了经验性衰减模型、预测强地震动的随机法和宽频带格林函数法；讨论了估计活断层引起的地震动所应把握的要点。