中国强震前兆地震活动图像机理的三维数值模拟研究

建立了含有母体岩石、硬包体和随机分布的小裂纹的三维有限元模型，计算了包体和各层实体中的应力分布. 利用最高应力破裂准则、释放破裂单元刚度生与死的方法，模拟强震前岩石的破裂和小震的空间分布特征. 结果表明，文中三种模型都显示出强震前在孕震体即包体附近出现了高应力集中单元. 它们是形成小震空区、条带和地震空间丛集图像的基础. 随机裂纹的存在，有利于在孕震体（包体）外的裂纹端部应力集中，先发生小震，形成包围孕震包体的前兆地震活动图像，而包体中的应力逐渐增加，为发生强震提供了条件. 包体的形状和几何位置是影响强震前兆地震活动图像形态的重要因素. 引入材料的黏弹性，导致了其中应力随时间迅速减小和弹性层某些部位应力随时间的增加. 但在本文设定的构造模型框架和介质参数下，下层黏弹性的存在对上层母体的应力随时间的增加影响不大.     

含不同弹性模量包体复合模型中的应力及其变化

用光弹性法分别研究了一组含软包体,等模量包体,及硬包体的复合模型中的应力及其变化,结果表明,在硬包体中的应力更高,硬包体的存在的乃是复合模型中形成和积累高应力区的结构构成条件,从而为坚固体孕震模式的力学机制研究提供了基本的实验依据。     

裂纹系微破裂集结和动态扩展的实验研究

研究了裂纹系的动态破裂,重点考察了裂纹系相互作用.选用大理石、玻璃为实验材料,将其加工成薄板状,并在板内预制各种不同形态的裂纹系,在单轴压下用可见光透视观察裂纹系动态相互作用的破裂过程.实验中发现,岩石的动态破裂过程和玻璃有很大差别,岩石的裂纹系动态相互作用后期是通过微破裂演化来实现的,而在玻璃中观察不到.裂纹系的不均匀应力场分布是破裂演化的初始原因.通过实验,给出大理石材料中各种不同形态裂纹系的动态破裂演化的全场过程图像,直观地揭示了含裂纹系岩石变形破坏的实质.实验显示了不同几何形态的裂纹系的破裂发育过程有明显区别.在微破裂集结时,周围的破裂部分闭合.因此,用二维模型描述的微破裂图像和实际有很大出入.为了消除这个差距,必须研究三维破裂.本文的实验结果表明,裂纹(断层)不能起到阻碍破裂扩展的作月;裂纹(断层)作为障碍体,和预存裂纹之间存在强烈的相互作用,使得样品的强度降低几乎一个量级.讨论了上述结论对于认识地震(包括矿震)断层行为的意义.     

含硬包体试样破裂特征的实验研究

初步研究了含硬包体试样在双轴加压时试样的最终破裂形式及硬包体的变化状况．岩样破裂形式侧向以压剪裂为主，表面出现两类:一类为走滑伴以逆冲断裂；另一类为冲断裂．当岩样内的硬包体与试样为硬接触时，则硬包体有的破裂，有的未破；为软接触时，则主破裂绕过硬包体．最后，分析了在一定条件下，岩样内的硬包体形成应力集中、屈服、软化直至破裂的过程．      

在围压作用下硬包体模型若干力学性质的研究

为全国了解硬包体力学模型的基本力学性质,本文对软、硬匀质介质模型,非匀质软、硬包体模型及含有软弱层或空穴的不连续介质模型进行了三维弹性有限元分析。在常规围压作用下,得到了各具不同特征的位移场、应力场及变形势能密度场,对硬包体模型的发震条件、震源分布及前兆机理进行了探讨性研究。     

加卸载响应比与其它地震前兆时空演化研究及其应用

本文重点研究了加卸载响应比的时空演化特征 ,并利用震例研究了长期地震活动性的时空演变特征的普适性。为了理解以上特征及地震前兆综合特征 ,应用解析、数值模拟等方法对二维圆形包体、二维硬软复合包体进行了研究 ,并推导出半无限流变介质中三维包体产生的粘弹性位移、应变、地倾斜解析表达式 ,详细地计算和分析了球形包体在地表产生的体应变的时空演变过程 ,从而使孕震模型理论化。应用理论研究结果 ,对地震前兆的时空演化进行了解释 ,提出了长期预测和中短期预测方法 ,并应用于实践 ,取得 5次地震的长期、中期预测的成效。主要结果如下…     

岩石破裂系分形及分维数测定

花岗岩在固体围压三轴压缩下破裂，然后沿主破裂面摩擦滑动（粘滑或稳滑），实际后我们将样品从围压介质铅中剥出来，做成显微薄片。在２０倍显微投影仪下观测其主破裂及裂纹系分布，用尺度法统计并计算裂纹系分维。结果表明，８个样品的无标度区（Ｒ）都相同，但是随尺度变化，分维值表现出分段线性的特征。当０．０５〈Ｒ〈０．１５ｍｍ时，裂纹系分维在１．１２－１．４１之间，主破裂分维在１．０８－１．１５之间；当０．１５〈     

软硬接触对含包体试样破裂模式影响的数值试验

运用自行开发的岩石破裂过程分析系统RFPA^2D，对包体与母岩间软、硬接触对包体试样破裂模式的影响进行了数值试验。研究认为：软、硬接触对包体试样的破裂特征和试样最大承载力起着重要的影响，软接触对包体试样的破裂特征和最大承载力起着决定性的影响，而包体本身所起的作用并不重要。硬接触时包体试样的破裂特征和最大承载力主要取决于包体和母岩的力学性质。     

弹塑性坚固体孕震模型的力学性质研究

对硬包体模型进行了三维弹塑性有限元分析。随着载荷的不断增加,探讨了位移场、应力场和可恢复的弹性变形势能场。所得结果对研究孕震过程、前兆机制等有一定价值     

1976年唐山7.8级地震震源过程的研究

本文提出唐山菱形块体在压缩载荷作用下震前应变积累和震时破裂滑动与稳定扩展的一个离散裂纹模型,它包括裂纹面的摩擦滑动和裂纹尖端稳定扩展两个过程。模型采用有限单元技术计算裂纹面的应力和变形及裂纹尖端的应力强度因子,并用库伦-纳维准则判断裂纹面是否发生摩擦滑动及用最大周向拉应力准则判断裂纹尖端扩展方向。模型预测与野外观测资料对比指出:裂纹模型能很好的表示1976年唐山地震震前积累和震时破裂传播的过程     

Temporal variations and scaling of streamflow and baseflow and their nitrate-nitrogen concentrations and loads

The patterns of temporal variations of precipitation (P), streamflow (SF) and baseflow (BF) as well as their nitrate-nitrogen (nitrate) concentrations (C) and loads (L) from a long-term record (28 years) in the Raccoon River, Iowa, were analyzed using variogram and spectral analyses. The daily P is random but scaling may exist in the daily SF and BF with a possible break point in the scaling at about 18 days and 45 days, respectively. The nitrate concentrations and loads are shown to have a half-year cycle while daily P, SF, and BF have a one-year cycle. Furthermore, there may be a low-frequency cycle of 6–8 years in C. The power spectra of C and L in both SF and BF exhibit fractal 1/f scaling with two characteristic frequencies of half-year and one-year, and are fitted well with the spectrum of the gamma distribution. The nitrate input to SF and BF at the Raccoon watershed seems likely to be a white noise process superimposed on another process with a half-year and one-year cycle.     

燕郊等测点迁移优化与地磁观测研究

为优化地磁观测条件，开展了燕郊、夏垫等测点迁移工作；按照测眯迁移原则与实施技术方案，完整地收集并整理了地质构造与地球物理等方面的基本资料；进行了野外实地勘察，磁场梯度的测量，确定了新测点，在新老测点上进行了较长时间的地磁场对比观测；应用多种方法分析研究了地磁对比观测资料，结果表明，新老测点与有关测点的地磁变化具有良好的一致性，并得到了新老测点之间的地磁数据的按点差。     

东、南洞庭湖的径流、泥沙特征及冲淤规律

通过实地调查并对1957年以来水文、泥沙观测资料做系统分析和计算,探讨东、南洞庭湖出、入湖水量、沙量的年际和年内变化特征,以及长江下荆江段裁弯对湖区径流和泥沙的影响。提出了湖区泥沙汛淤枯冲的变化规律及水位升降与湖区泥沙冲淤的关系;论证了丰、平、枯年湖区淤积严重,面积日益缩小对径流的调节作用正在减弱。     

GIS与防灾减灾

地理信息系统(GIS)在我国已得到广泛的应用。在简要介绍G1S的发展历程、特点和发展趋势的基础上，重点从防灾减灾的角度介绍了GIS在气象灾害、地震灾害、地质灾害等领域的应用成果。     

Assessing Groundwater Depletion and Dynamics Using GRACE and InSAR: Potential and Limitations

In the last decade, remote sensing of the temporal variation of ground level and gravity has improved our understanding of groundwater dynamics and storage. Mass changes are measured by GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites, whereas ground deformation is measured by processing synthetic aperture radar satellites data using the InSAR (Interferometry of Synthetic Aperture Radar) techniques. Both methods are complementary and offer different sensitivities to aquifer system processes. GRACE is sensitive to mass changes over large spatial scales (more than 100,000 km²). As such, it fails in providing groundwater storage change estimates at local or regional scales relevant to most aquifer systems, and at which most groundwater management schemes are applied. However, InSAR measures ground displacement due to aquifer response to fluid‐pressure changes. InSAR applications to groundwater depletion assessments are limited to aquifer systems susceptible to measurable deformation. Furthermore, the inversion of InSAR‐derived displacement maps into volume of depleted groundwater storage (both reversible and largely irreversible) is confounded by vertical and horizontal variability of sediment compressibility. During the last decade, both techniques have shown increasing interest in the scientific community to complement available in situ observations where they are insufficient. In this review, we present the theoretical and conceptual bases of each method, and present idealized scenarios to highlight the potential benefits and challenges of combining these techniques to remotely assess groundwater storage changes and other aspects of the dynamics of aquifer systems.     

Correlation of foreshocks and aftershocks and asperities

A close correlation in spatial distribution of local seismic activity and energy release patterns before and after the 1979 Petatlan, Mexico earthquake suggests heterogeneity within the fault plane of this major low-angle thrust event associated with subduction along the Middle America Trench. A simple two-asperity model is proposed to account for the complexity. Foreshocks and aftershocks of the neighboring 1981 Playa Azul earthquake showed a similar pattern. As both events occurred at the junction of the Orozco Fracture Zone and the Middle America Trench, we speculate that the observed complex fault plane is caused by subduction of the rugged ocean floor of the Orozco Fracture Zone. Short-term precursory seismicity prior to the Petatlan earthquake can be explained by using the asperity model and migration of a slip front from the south-east to the north-west across the main shock source region.