A generalized conditional intensity measure approach and holistic ground‐motion selection

A generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) approach is proposed for use in the holistic selection of ground motions for any form of seismic response analysis. The essence of the method is the construction of the multivariate distribution of any set of ground‐motion intensity measures conditioned on the occurrence of a specific ground‐motion intensity measure (commonly obtained from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis). The approach therefore allows any number of ground‐motion intensity measures identified as important in a particular seismic response problem to be considered. A holistic method of ground‐motion selection is also proposed based on the statistical comparison, for each intensity measure, of the empirical distribution of the ground‐motion suite with the ‘target’ GCIM distribution. A simple procedure to estimate the magnitude of potential bias in the results of seismic response analyses when the ground‐motion suite does not conform to the GCIM distribution is also demonstrated. The combination of these three features of the approach make it entirely holistic in that: any level of complexity in ground‐motion selection for any seismic response analysis can be exercised; users explicitly understand the simplifications made in the selected suite of ground motions; and an approximate estimate of any bias associated with such simplifications is obtained. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ductility‐dependent intensity measure that accounts for ground‐motion spectral shape and duration

The calculated nonlinear structural responses of a building can vary greatly, even if recorded ground motions are scaled to the same spectral acceleration at a building's fundamental period. To reduce the variation in structural response at a particular ground‐motion intensity, this paper proposes an intensity measure (IM_comb) that accounts for the combined effects of spectral acceleration, ground‐motion duration, and response spectrum shape. The intensity measure includes a new measure of spectral shape that integrates the spectrum over a period range that depends on the structure's ductility. The new IM is efficient, sufficient, scalable, transparent, and versatile. These features make it suitable for evaluating the intensities of measured and simulated ground motions. The efficiency and sufficiency of the new IM is demonstrated for the following: (i) elastic‐perfectly plastic single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) oscillators with a variety of ductility demands and periods; (ii) ductile and brittle deteriorating SDOF systems with a variety of periods; and (iii) collapse analysis for 30 previously designed frames. The efficiency is attributable to the inclusion of duration and to the ductility dependence of the spectral shape measure. For each of these systems, the transparency of the intensity measure made it possible to identify the sensitivity of structural response to the various characteristics of the ground motion. Spectral shape affected all structures, but in particular, ductile structures. Duration only affected structures with cyclic deterioration. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of the exact conditional spectrum and generalized conditional intensity measure methods for ground motion selection

Two existing, contemporary ground motion selection and modification procedures – (i) exact conditional spectrum (CS‐exact) and (ii) generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) – are evaluated in their ability to accurately estimate seismic demand hazard curves (SDHCs) of a given structure at a specified site. The amount of effort involved in implementing these procedures to compute a single SDHC is studied, and a case study is chosen where rigorous benchmark SDHCs can be determined for evaluation purposes. By comparing estimates from ground motion selection and modification procedures with the benchmark, we conclude that estimates from CS‐exact are unbiased in many of the cases considered. The estimates from GCIM are even more accurate, as they are unbiased for most – but not all – of the cases where estimates from CS‐exact are biased. We find that it is possible to obtain biased SDHCs from GCIM, even after employing a very diverse collection of intensity measures to select ground motions and implementing its bias‐checking feature, because it is usually difficult to identify intensity measures that are truly ‘sufficient’ for the response of a complex, multi‐degree‐of‐freedom system. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ground motion selection for scenario ruptures using the generalised conditional intensity measure (GCIM) method

In this paper, the generalised conditional intensity measure (GCIM) method is extended to ground motion selection for scenario earthquake ruptures. The selection algorithm is based on generating random realisations of the considered intensity measure (IM) distributions for a specific rupture scenario and then finding the prospective ground motions that best fit the realisations using an optimal amplitude scale factor. Using different rupture scenarios and site conditions, two important aspects of the GCIM methodology are scrutinised: (i) different weight vectors for the various IMs considered and (ii) quantifying the importance of replicate selections for ensembles with different numbers of desired ground motions. It is demonstrated that considering only spectral acceleration (SA) ordinates in the selection process, as is common in many conventional selection procedures, may result in selected motions with a biased representation for duration and cumulative ground motion effects. In contrast, considering IMs other than SA ordinates (in particular, significant duration, cumulative absolute velocity, and Arias intensity) results in ensembles with an appropriate representation of these IMs, without a practically significant effect on SA ordinates. The benefit of conducting replicate selections to obtain a suite of motions with an improved representation for the distribution of the considered IMs is demonstrated, and a minimum number of replicates are suggested for different ground motion ensemble sizes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of amplitude scaling limits on conditional spectrum-based ground motion selection

Amplitude scaling is commonly used to select ground motions matching a target response spectrum. In this paper, the effect of scaling limits on ground motion selection, based on the conditional spectrum framework, is investigated. Target spectra are computed for four probabilistic seismic hazard cases in Western United States, and 16 ground motion suites are selected using different scaling limits (ie, 2, 5, 10, and 15). Comparison of spectral acceleration distributions of the selected ground motion suites demonstrates that the use of a scaling limit of 2 yields a relatively poor representation of the target spectra, because of the small limit leading to an insufficient number of available ground motions. It is also shown that increasing scaling limit results in selected ground motions with generally increased distributions of Arias intensity and significant duration Ds_5-75, implying that scaling limit consideration can significantly influence the cumulative and duration characteristics of selected ground motions. The ground motion suites selected are then used as input for slope displacement and structural dynamic analyses. Comparative results demonstrate that the consideration of scaling limits in ground motion selection has a notable influence on the distribution of the engineering demand parameters calculated (ie, slope displacement and interstory drift ratio). Finally, based on extensive analyses, a scaling limit range of 3 to 5 is recommended for general use when selecting ground motion records from the NGA-West2 database.     

Conditional spectrum‐based ground motion record selection using average spectral acceleration

The use of a seismic intensity measure (IM) is paramount in decoupling seismic hazard and structural response estimation when assessing the performance of structures. For this to be valid, the IM needs to be sufficient;that is, the engineering demand parameter (EDP) response should be independent of other ground motion characteristics when conditioned on the IM. Whenever non‐trivial dependence is found, such as in the case of the IM being the first‐mode spectral acceleration, ground motion selection must be employed to generate sets of ground motion records that are consistent vis‐à‐vis the hazard conditioned on the IM. Conditional spectrum record selection is such a method for choosing records that are consistent with the site‐dependent spectral shape conditioned on the first‐mode spectral acceleration. Based on a single structural period, however the result may be suboptimal, or insufficient, for EDPs influenced by different period values, for example, peak interstory drifts or peak floor accelerations at different floors, potentially requiring different record suites for each. Recently, the log‐average spectral acceleration over a period range, AvgSA, has emerged as an improved scalar IM for building response estimation whose hazard can be evaluated using existing ground motion prediction equations. Herein, we present a recasting of conditional spectrum record selection that is based on AvgSA over a period range as the conditioning IM. This procedure ensures increased efficiency and sufficiency in simultaneously estimating multiple EDPs by means of a single IM. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A vector‐valued ground motion intensity measure consisting of spectral acceleration and epsilon

The ‘strength’ of an earthquake ground motion is often quantified by an Intensity Measure (IM), such as peak ground acceleration or spectral acceleration at a given period. This IM is used to predict the response of a structure. In this paper an intensity measure consisting of two parameters, spectral acceleration and epsilon, is considered. The IM is termed a vector‐valued IM, as opposed to the single parameter, or scalar, IMs that are traditionally used. Epsilon (defined as a measure of the difference between the spectral acceleration of a record and the mean of a ground motion prediction equation at the given period) is found to have significant ability to predict structural response. It is shown that epsilon is an indicator of spectral shape, explaining why it is related to structural response. By incorporating this vector‐valued IM with a vector‐valued ground motion hazard, we can predict the mean annual frequency of exceeding a given value of maximum interstory drift ratio, or other such response measure. It is shown that neglecting the effect of epsilon when computing this drift hazard curve leads to conservative estimates of the response of the structure. These observations should perhaps affect record selection in the future. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ground motion selection for seismic slope displacement analysis using a generalized intensity measure distribution method

Selecting ground motions based on the generalized intensity measure distribution (GIMD) approach has many appealing features, but it has not been fully verified in engineering practice. In this paper, several suites of ground motions, which have almost identical distributions of spectral acceleration (SA) ordinates but different distributions of non‐SA intensity measures, are selected using the GIMD‐based approach for a given earthquake scenario. The selected ground motion suites are used to compute the sliding displacements of various slopes. Comparisons of the resulting displacements demonstrate that selecting ground motions with biased distribution of some intensity measures (ie, Arias intensity) may yield systematic biases (up to 60% for some slope types). Therefore, compared to the ground motions selected based only on the distribution of SA ordinates, the ground motion suite selected by the GIMD‐based approach can better represent the various characteristics of earthquake loadings, resulting in generally unbiased estimation in specific engineering applications.     

Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion for anisotropy of PP- and PS-wave in weakly anisotropic and heterogeneous media

A single set of vertically aligned cracks embedded in a purely isotropic background may be considered as a long-wavelength effective transversely isotropy (HTI) medium with a horizontal symmetry axis. The crack-induced HTI anisotropy can be characterized by the weakly anisotropic parameters introduced by Thomsen. The seismic scattering theory can be utilized for the inversion for the anisotropic parameters in weakly anisotropic and heterogeneous HTI media. Based on the seismic scattering theory, we first derived the linearized PP- and PS-wave reflection coefficients in terms of P- and S-wave impedances, density as well as three anisotropic parameters in HTI media. Then, we proposed a novel Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion method of PP- and PS-wave for six elastic and anisotropic parameters directly. Tests on synthetic azimuthal seismic data contaminated by random errors demonstrated that this method appears more accurate, anti-noise and stable owing to the usage of the constrained PS-wave compared with the standards inversion scheme taking only the PP-wave into account.     

Conditional spectrum‐based ground motion selection. Part II: Intensity‐based assessments and evaluation of alternative target spectra

In a companion paper, an overview and problem definition was presented for ground motion selection on the basis of the conditional spectrum (CS), to perform risk‐based assessments (which estimate the annual rate of exceeding a specified structural response amplitude) for a 20‐story reinforced concrete frame structure. Here, the methodology is repeated for intensity‐based assessments (which estimate structural response for ground motions with a specified intensity level) to determine the effect of conditioning period. Additionally, intensity‐based and risk‐based assessments are evaluated for two other possible target spectra, specifically the uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) and the conditional mean spectrum (CMS, without variability).It is demonstrated for the structure considered that the choice of conditioning period in the CS can substantially impact structural response estimates in an intensity‐based assessment. When used for intensity‐based assessments, the UHS typically results in equal or higher median estimates of structural response than the CS; the CMS results in similar median estimates of structural response compared with the CS but exhibits lower dispersion because of the omission of variability. The choice of target spectrum is then evaluated for risk‐based assessments, showing that the UHS results in overestimation of structural response hazard, whereas the CMS results in underestimation. Additional analyses are completed for other structures to confirm the generality of the conclusions here. These findings have potentially important implications both for the intensity‐based seismic assessments using the CS in future building codes and the risk‐based seismic assessments typically used in performance‐based earthquake engineering applications. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Correlation study between ground motion intensity measure parameters and deformation demands for bilinear SDOF systems

The correlation between ground motion intensity measures （IM） and single-degree-of-freedom （SDOF） deformation demands is described in this study. Peak ground acceleration （APG）, peak ground velocity （VPG）, peak ground displacement （DPG）, spectral acceleration at the first-mode period of vibration [As（T1）] and ratio of VPG to APG are used as IM parameters, and the correlation is characterized by correlation coefficients p. The numerical results obtained by nonlinear dynamic analyses have shown good correlation between As（T1） or VPG and deformation demands. Furthermore, the effect of As（T1） and VPG as IM on the dispersion of the mean value of deformation demands is also investigated for SDOF systems with three different periods T=0.3 s, 1.0 s, 3.0 s respectively.     

Conditional spectrum‐based ground motion selection. Part I: Hazard consistency for risk‐based assessments

The conditional spectrum (CS, with mean and variability) is a target response spectrum that links nonlinear dynamic analysis back to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for ground motion selection. The CS is computed on the basis of a specified conditioning period, whereas structures under consideration may be sensitive to response spectral amplitudes at multiple periods of excitation. Questions remain regarding the appropriate choice of conditioning period when utilizing the CS as the target spectrum. This paper focuses on risk‐based assessments, which estimate the annual rate of exceeding a specified structural response amplitude. Seismic hazard analysis, ground motion selection, and nonlinear dynamic analysis are performed, using the conditional spectra with varying conditioning periods, to assess the performance of a 20‐story reinforced concrete frame structure. It is shown here that risk‐based assessments are relatively insensitive to the choice of conditioning period when the ground motions are carefully selected to ensure hazard consistency. This observed insensitivity to the conditioning period comes from the fact that, when CS‐based ground motion selection is used, the distributions of response spectra of the selected ground motions are consistent with the site ground motion hazard curves at all relevant periods; this consistency with the site hazard curves is independent of the conditioning period. The importance of an exact CS (which incorporates multiple causal earthquakes and ground motion prediction models) to achieve the appropriate spectral variability at periods away from the conditioning period is also highlighted. The findings of this paper are expected theoretically but have not been empirically demonstrated previously. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Conditional spectrum bidirectional record selection for risk assessment of 3D structures using scalar and vector IMs

Several proposals are explored for the hazard and intensity measure (IM) consistent selection of bidirectional ground motions to assess the performance of 3D structural models. Recent studies have shown the necessity of selecting records that thoroughly represent the seismicity at the site of interest, as well as the usefulness of efficient IMs capable of estimating the response of buildings with low scatter. However, the advances realized are mostly geared towards the structural analysis of 2D models. Few are the combined record, and IM selection approaches suggested expressly for nonlinear dynamic analysis of 3D structural models, especially when plan asymmetry and torsion sensitivity come into play. Conditional spectrum selection is leveraged and expanded here to offer a suite of approaches based on both scalar and vector IMs that convey information from two orthogonal horizontal components of the ground motion. Applications on multiple 3D building models highlight the importance of (a) employing the same IM for both record selection and response assessment and (b) maintaining hazard consistency in both horizontal components, when using either a scalar or a vector IM. All tested approaches that respect these conditions can be viable, yet the one based on the geometric mean of multiple spectral ordinates from both components over a period range seems to hold the most promise for general use.     

The effect of causal parameter bounds in PSHA‐based ground motion selection

In this paper the effect of causal parameter bounds (e.g. magnitude, source‐to‐site distance, and site condition) on ground motion selection, based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) results, is investigated. Despite the prevalent application of causal parameter bounds in ground motion selection, present literature on the topic is cast in the context of a scenario earthquake of interest, and thus specific bounds for use in ground motion selection based on PSHA, and the implications of such bounds, is yet to be examined. Thirty‐six PSHA cases, which cover a wide range of causal rupture deaggregation distributions and site conditions, are considered to empirically investigate the effects of various causal parameter bounds on the characteristics of selected ground motions based on the generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) approach. It is demonstrated that the application of relatively ‘wide’ bounds on causal parameters effectively removes ground motions with drastically different characteristics with respect to the target seismic hazard and results in an improved representation of the target causal parameters. In contrast, the use of excessively ‘narrow’ bounds can lead to ground motion ensembles with a poor representation of the target intensity measure distributions, typically as a result of an insufficient number of prospective ground motions. Quantitative criteria for specifying bounds for general PSHA cases are provided, which are expected to be sufficient in the majority of problems encountered in ground motion selection for seismic demand analyses. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A vector-valued intensity measure for near-fault ground motions

Near-fault ground motions containing high energy and large amplitude velocity pulses may cause severe damage to structures. The most widely used intensity measure (IM) is the elastic spectral acceleration at the fundamental period of the structure (Sa(T₁)); however, Sa(T₁) is not a sufficient IM with respect to the effects of the pulse-like ground motions on structural response. For near-fault ground motions, including pulse-like and non–pulse-like time histories, we propose a vector-valued IM consisting of a new IM called instantaneous power (IP(T₁)) and the Sa(T₁). The IP(T₁) is defined as the maximum power of the bandpass-filtered velocity time series over a time interval of 0.5T₁. The IP(T₁) is period-dependent because the velocity time series is filtered over a period range (0.2T₁-3T₁). This allows the IP(T₁) to represent the power of the near-fault ground motions relevant to the response of the structure. Using two-dimensional models of the 2- and 9-story steel-frame buildings, we show that the proposed [Sa(T₁), IP(T₁)] vector IM gives more accurate estimates of the maximum inter-story drift and collapse capacity responses from near-fault ground motions than using the vector IM consisting of the Sa(T₁), the presence of the velocity pulse, and the period of the velocity pulse. Moreover, for the structures considered, for a given Sa(T₁), the IP(T₁) is more strongly correlated with structural damage from near-fault ground motions than the combination of the velocity pulse and pulse period.     

Ground motion selection for simulation‐based seismic hazard and structural reliability assessment

This paper examines four methods by which ground motions can be selected for dynamic seismic response analyses of engineered systems when the underlying seismic hazard is quantified via ground motion simulation rather than empirical ground motion prediction equations. Even with simulation‐based seismic hazard, a ground motion selection process is still required in order to extract a small number of time series from the much larger set developed as part of the hazard calculation. Four specific methods are presented for ground motion selection from simulation‐based seismic hazard analyses, and pros and cons of each are discussed via a simple and reproducible illustrative example. One of the four methods (method 1 ‘direct analysis’) provides a ‘benchmark’ result (i.e., using all simulated ground motions), enabling the consistency of the other three more efficient selection methods to be addressed. Method 2 (‘stratified sampling’) is a relatively simple way to achieve a significant reduction in the number of ground motions required through selecting subsets of ground motions binned based on an intensity measure, IM. Method 3 (‘simple multiple stripes’) has the benefit of being consistent with conventional seismic assessment practice using as‐recorded ground motions, but both methods 2 and 3 are strongly dependent on the efficiency of the conditioning IM to predict the seismic responses of interest. Method 4 (‘generalized conditional intensity measure‐based selection’) is consistent with ‘advanced’ selection methods used for as‐recorded ground motions and selects subsets of ground motions based on multiple IMs, thus overcoming this limitation in methods 2 and 3. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Structural performance assessment under near‐source pulse‐like ground motions using advanced ground motion intensity measures

This paper demonstrates the effectiveness of utilizing advanced ground motion intensity measures (IMs) to evaluate the seismic performance of a structure subject to near‐source ground motions. Ordinary records are, in addition, utilized to demonstrate the robustness of the advanced IM with respect to record selection and scaling. To perform nonlinear dynamic analyses (NDAs), ground motions need to be selected; as a result, choosing records that are not representative of the site hazard can alter the seismic performance of structures. The median collapse capacity (in terms of IM), for example, can be systematically dictated by including a few aggressive or benign pulse‐like records into the record set used for analyses. In this paper, the elastic‐based IM such as the pseudo‐spectral acceleration (S_a) or a vector of S_a and epsilon has been demonstrated to be deficient to assess the structural responses subject to pulse‐like motions. Using advanced IMs can be, however, more accurate in terms of probabilistic response prediction. Scaling earthquake records using advanced IMs (e.g. inelastic spectral displacement, S_di, and IM _1I&2E; the latter is for the significant higher‐mode contribution structures) subject to ordinary and/or pulse‐like records is efficient, sufficient, and robust relative to record selection and scaling. As a result, detailed record selection is not necessary, and records with virtually any magnitude, distance, epsilon and pulse period can be selected for NDAs. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Information theory measures for the engineering validation of ground‐motion simulations

This short communication introduces a quantitative approach for the engineering validation of ground‐motion simulations based on information theory concepts and statistical hypothesis testing. Specifically, we use the Kullback‐Leibler divergence to measure the similarity of the probability distributions of recorded and simulated ground‐motion intensity measures (IMs). We demonstrate the application of the proposed validation approach to ground‐motion simulations computed by using a variety of methods, including Graves and Pitarka hybrid broadband, the deterministic composite source model, and a stochastic white noise finite‐fault model. Ground‐motion IMs, acting as proxies for the (nonlinear) seismic response of more complex engineered systems, are considered herein to validate the considered ground‐motion simulation methods. The list of considered IMs includes both spectral‐shape and duration‐related proxies, shown to be the optimal IMs in several probabilistic seismic demand models of different structural types, within the framework of performance‐based earthquake engineering. The proposed validation exercise (1) can highlight the similarities and differences between simulated and recorded ground motions for a given simulation method and/or (2) allow the ranking of the performance of alternative simulation methods. The similarities between records and simulations should provide confidence in using the simulation method for engineering applications, while the discrepancies should help in improving the tested method for the generation of synthetic records.     

Comparing the adequacy of alternative ground motion intensity measures for the estimation of structural responses

Practical methods for the probability‐based seismic assessment of structures make use of estimates of demands produced by earthquakes of different intensities. The uncertainties associated with these estimates are highly dependent on the variable adopted as the intensity measure (IM, e.g., PGA, spectral acceleration, etc.). This generates the need to compare the efficiency of an originally adopted IMwith that of a new candidate. This implies comparing the dispersion of the demand measure (DM, e.g., maximum interstorey drift ratio, ductility demand, etc.) conditional to each of the two IMs. In order to obtain the demand estimates in a conventional way, a full set of dynamic response analyses should be performed for each IM under scrutiny, i.e., multiple records scaled at several fixed values of each IM. The procedure developed here serves to accelerate this comparison avoiding the effort required to evaluate the dynamic responses of the structure for all the ground motion time histories considered every time that a new IM is adopted. For this purpose, use is made of available results of analyses performed for a different (i.e., the original) IM. Two methods are proposed: the direct method involves performing a regression of the results obtained from the original analyses, taking the candidate IM as the independent variable. The indirect method involves rebuilding the probability density function of the DM given a defined value of the candidate IM by means of the total probability theorem, using the results of the original analyses and certain data relating the two IMs. The proposed methods have been tested by application to several SDOF systems with different periods and different cyclic‐response backbone curves. The conditions affecting their approximation are explored, and some criteria to improve them are identified. The procedure can also be used to determine the optimum value of a parameter to be used in a parameter‐based IM. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spectral shape,epsilon and record selection

Selection of earthquake ground motions is considered with the goal of accurately estimating the response of a structure at a specified ground motion intensity, as measured by spectral acceleration at the first‐mode period of the structure, Sa(T₁). Consideration is given to the magnitude, distance and epsilon (ε) values of ground motions. First, it is seen that selecting records based on their ε values is more effective than selecting records based on magnitude and distance. Second, a method is discussed for finding the conditional response spectrum of a ground motion, given a level of Sa(T₁) and its associated mean (disaggregation‐based) causal magnitude, distance and ε value. Records can then be selected to match the mean of this target spectrum, and the same benefits are achieved as when records are selected based on ε. This mean target spectrum differs from a Uniform Hazard Spectrum, and it is argued that this new spectrum is a more appropriate target for record selection. When properly selecting records based on either spectral shape or ε, the reductions in bias and variance of resulting structural response estimates are comparable to the reductions achieved by using a vector‐valued measure of earthquake intensity. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.