Preliminary Quantitative Assessment of Earthquake Casualties and Damages

Prognostic estimations of the expected number of killed or injured people and about the approximate cost associated with the damages caused by earthquakes are made following a suitable methodology of wide-ranging application. For the preliminary assessment of human life losses due to the occurrence of a relatively strong earthquake we use a quantitative model consisting of a correlation between the number of casualties and the earthquake magnitude as a function of population density. The macroseismic intensity field is determined in accordance with an updated anelastic attenuation law, and the number of casualties within areas of different intensity is computed using an application developed in a geographic information system (GIS) environment, taking advantage of the possibilities of such a system for the treatment of space-distributed data. The casualty rate, defined as the number of killed people divided by the number of inhabitants of the affected region, is also computed and we show its variation for some urban concentrations with different population density. For a rough preliminary evaluation of the direct economic cost derived from the damages, equally through a GIS-based tool, we take into account the local social wealth as a function of the gross domestic product of the country. This last step is performed on the basis of the relationship of the macroseismic intensity to the earthquake economic loss in percentage of the wealth. Such an approach to the human casualty and damage levels is carried out for sites near important cities located in a seismically active zone of Spain, thus contributing to an easier taking of decisions in emergency preparedness planning, contemporary earthquake engineering and seismic risk prevention.     

A novel agent-based model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment

Tsunami evacuation is an effective way to save lives from the near-field tsunami. Realistic evacuation simulation can provide valuable information for accurate evacuation risk assessment and effective evacuation planning. Agent-based modeling is ideal for tsunami evacuation simulation due to its capability of capturing the emergent phenomena and modeling the individual-level interactions among agents and the agents’ interactions with the environment. However, existing models usually neglect or simplify some important factors and/or mechanisms in tsunami evacuation. For example, uncertainties in seismic damages to the transportation network are not probabilistically considered (e.g., by simply removing the damaged links (roads/bridges) from the network). Typically a relatively small population (i.e., evacuees) is considered (due to computational challenges) while neglecting population mobility. These simplifications may lead to inaccurate estimation of evacuation risk. Usually, only single traffic mode (e.g., on foot or by car) is considered, while pedestrian speed adjustment and multi-modal evacuation (e.g., on foot and by car) are not considered concurrently. Also, pedestrian–vehicle interaction is usually neglected in the multi-modal evacuation. To address the above limitations, this study proposes a novel and more realistic agent-based tsunami evacuation model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment. Uncertainties in seismic damages to all links in the transportation network as well as uncertainties in other evacuation parameters are explicitly modeled and considered. A novel and more realistic multi-modal evacuation model is proposed that explicitly considers the pedestrian–vehicle interaction, walking speed variability, and speed adjustment for both the pedestrian and car according to traffic density. In addition, several different population sizes are used to model population mobility and its impact on tsunami evacuation risk. The proposed model is applied within a simulation-based framework to assess the tsunami evacuation risk assessment for Seaside, Oregon.

     

Integrated seismic hazard evaluation and disaster management approach for Turkey

A significant proportion of the urban areas in Turkey is subject to high seismic risk. An important step for seismic risk mitigation is to define the hazard and damage after an earthquake. This paper proposes an integrated seismic hazard assessment and disaster management processes for Turkey. The proposed methodology utilizes information technologies in its seismic assessment component that provides fast results for assessment. First, image process methodology by using satellite images was implemented in the seismic assessment process for fast evaluation right after an earthquake. Second, the seismic assessment process was integrated with disaster management process. As a result, through integrated seismic hazard evaluation and disaster management procedure, an effective, fast and dependable estimation of loss for Turkey was planned.     

2011年3月10日盈江5.8级地震诱发砂土液化灾害特征研究

2011年3月10日中缅边境附近的云南省德宏傣族景颇族自治州盈江县发生Ms5.8级地震,震源深度10km,造成25人死亡,250人受伤,13万人口受灾,众多构(建)筑物损毁,砂土液化广泛发育,约19km长的盈江河堤开裂.5.8级地震诱发如此大的次生灾害是近年来少有的.通过对本次地震地质背景和地质灾害调查分析,初步认识到...     

Tectonic stress,seismicity, and seismic hazard in the southeastern Carpathians

Intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Vrancea region occur in response to stress generation due to descending lithosphere beneath the southeastern Carpathians. In this article, tectonic stress and seismicity are analyzed in the region on the basis of a vast body of observations. We show a correlation between the location of intermediate-depth earthquakes and the predicted localization of maximum shear stress in the lithosphere. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for the region is presented in terms of various ground motion parameters on the utilization of Fourier amplitude spectra used in engineering practice and risk assessment (peak ground acceleration, response spectra amplitude, and seismic intensity). We review the PSHA carried out in the region, and present new PSHA results for the eastern and southern parts of Romania. Our seismic hazard assessment is based on the information about the features of earthquake ground motion excitation, seismic wave propagation (attenuation), and site effect in the region. Spectral models and characteristics of site-response on earthquake ground motions are obtained from the regional ground motion data including several hundred records of small and large earthquakes. Results of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment are consistent with the features of observed earthquake effects in the southeastern Carpathians and show that geological factors play an important part in the distribution of the earthquake ground motion parameters.     

A Hazard Assessment Method for Potential Earthquake-Induced Landslides – A Case Study in Huaxian County, Shaanxi Province

The hazard assessment of potential earthquake-induced landslides is an important aspect of the study of earthquake-induced landslides. In this study, we assessed the hazard of potential earthquake-induced landslides in Huaxian County with a new hazard assessment method. This method is based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the Newmark cumulative displacement assessment model. The model considers a comprehensive suite of information, including the seismic activities and engineering geological conditions in the study area, and simulates the uncertainty of the intensity parameters of the engineering geological rock groups using the Monte Carlo method. Unlike previous assessment studies on ground motions with a given exceedance probability level, the hazard of earthquake-induced landslides obtained by the method presented in this study allows for the possibility of earthquake-induced landslides in different parts of the study area in the future. The assessment of the hazard of earthquake-induced landslides in this study showed good agreement with the historical distribution of earthquake-induced landslides. This indicates that the assessment properly reflects the macroscopic rules for the development of earthquake-induced landslides in the study area, and can provide a reference framework for the management of the risk of earthquake-induced landslides and land planning.     

Geoseismological investigation of the January 26, 2001 Bhuj earthquake in western peninsular India

Of the intraplate seismic events, the January 26, 2001 Bhuj earthquake (Mw 7.7) would be remembered as one of the deadliest, in which 13,805 human lives were lost, 0.177 million injured and a total of 1,205,198 houses were fully or partly damaged in 16 districts of Gujarat state with an estimated overall loss of Rs. 284, 23 million. The brunt of the calamity was borne by five districts, namely Kachchh, Ahmadabad, Rajkot, Jamnagar and Surendranagar, where 99?% of the total casualties and damage occurred. In the neighbouring parts of Sindhh Province of Pakistan, 40 human casualties were reported, and some buildings cracked in the Karachi city as well. In the Kachchh district of Gujarat state, the telecommunication links and power supply were totally disrupted, road and rail links partially impaired and water supply snapped at many places. The Bhuj airbase had to be closed for some time due to damage to the infrastructure. The macroseismic survey carried out by the Geological Survey of India in an area as large as 1.2 million?sq?km indicated an epicentral intensity as high as X on the MSK scale in an area of 780?sq?km in the central part of Kachchh rift basin. Apart from damages to civil structures, the January 26 earthquake induced conspicuous terrain deformation in the form of liquefaction features, structural ground deformation and low-order slope failures that were mainly prevalent within the higher intensity isoseists. Liquefaction occurred in an area of about 50,000?sq?km. The extensive plains of Rann of Kachchh, the marshy tracts of the Little Rann and the shallow groundwater table zones of Banni Land provided the most conducive geotechnical environments for the development of seismites. The liquefaction activity was profuse in seismic intensity zones X and IX, widespread in intensity VIII, subdued in intensity VII and stray in intensity VI. The common forms of liquefaction were sand blows/boils, ground fissures, craters, lateral spreading and slumping. Ground deformation of tectonic origin was witnessed in the epicentral tract. Such features, though much less subdued in comparison with the 1819 large earthquake (Mw 7.8) in region, occurred along the Kachchh Mainland fault (KMF) and along a transverse lineament, referred to as Manfara?CKharoi fault. The manifestations were in the form of fractures, displacement of strata, linear subsidence, upheaval, formation of micro-basins/micro-ridges, ripping off of rock surface, and at places violent forms of liquefaction. The localities where coseismic deformations were observed include Bodhormora, Sikra, Vondh, Chobari, Manfara and Kharoi. The 2001 event has demonstrated the role of local geology in influencing the ground motion characteristics and, therefore, the hazard estimation.     

Evaluation of coseismic landslide hazard on the proposed Haast-Hollyford Highway,South Island,New Zealand

Coseismic landsliding presents a major hazard to infrastructure in mountains during large earthquakes. This is particularly true for road networks, as historically coseismic landsliding has resulted in road losses larger than those due to ground shaking. Assessing the exposure of current and planned highway links to coseismic landsliding for future earthquake scenarios is therefore vital for disaster risk reduction. This study presents a method to evaluate the exposure of critical infrastructure to landsliding from scenario earthquakes from an underlying quantitative landslide hazard assessment. The method is applied to a proposed new highway link in South Island, New Zealand, for a scenario Alpine Fault earthquake and compared to the current network. Exposure (the likelihood of a network being affected by one or more landslides) is evaluated from a regional-scale coseismic landslide hazard model and assessed on a relative basis from 0 to 1. The results show that the proposed Haast-Hollyford Highway (HHH) would be highly exposed to coseismic landsliding with at least 30–40?km likely to be badly affected (the Simonin Pass route being the worse affected of the two routes). In the current South Island State Highway network, the HHH would be the link most exposed to landsliding and would increase the total network exposure by 50–70% despite increasing the total road length by just 3%. The present work is intended to provide an effective method to assess coseismic landslide hazard of infrastructure in mountains with seismic hazard, and potentially identify mitigation options and critical network segments.     

An overview approach to seismic awareness for a “quiescent” region

The Denver Region in Colorado, USA, is used as an example of the seismic vulnerability of a region that is not generally considered seismically active. The HAZUS (Hazards United States) natural hazard vulnerability program of United States and an integral geographical information system are used to create the regional distribution of Denver’s potential consequences of an earthquake. Two realistic scenario earthquakes are employed based on a detailed study of seismic activity in the region. Outcomes include casualties, displaced households, building damage by construction material type, hospital functionality, highway bridge functionality, and infrastructure recovery rates. Demographic information includes the use of public transportation, elderly population, and vulnerability based on education, income, and race. Additionally, the type and frequency of communication among key planning agencies and other organizations in the region are investigated through the use of personal interviews as well as a survey to determine the degree to which these agencies consider seismic risk in their communication and coordination planning.     

Estimation of seismic hazard parameters in TERESA test areas

A general overview of some of the problems involved in earthquake catalogue handling is given as part of the works carried out into the ESC/SC8-TERESA project related with the seismic hazard assessment in two selected test areas: Sannio-Matese in Italy and the northern Rhine region (BGN). Furthermore, the necessary input data to be used in the calculation of seismic hazard has been obtained, including earthquake source zones and their seismic hazard parameters.The importance is pointed out of detailed analysis of seismic catalogues, mainly in relation to the use of aftershock information, the historical records of the region, and the possible temporal and spatial variation of seismicity, which could have an important influence on short-term hazard assessment.     

概率地震危险性评价系统开发

工程建设时必须对工程场地的地震危险性进行评价,并且对工程结构物要采取抗震设计。由于相关部门往往针对某一地区只提供一个地震设防加速度范围值或地震设防烈度值,而且某一地震烈度值所对应的加速度值的范围也很大,使得在实际应用中给具体工程安全、经济地选用合适的抗震设防加速度带来一定困难;为解决这个问题,本文以概率地震危险性评价理论为基础,开发了一套地震危险性评价系统。利用该评价系统根据相关地震活动性参数,可以方便、快速地计算出具体工程应该采用的抗震设防加速度值,从而解决了工程活动中安全、经济地选用抗震设防加速度值的问题。文中还针对潜在线源和潜在面源的处理难以在程序上实现这一难题,分别提出了一种精确求解和近似求解的算法。本文并以实例进行了评价计算,计算结果与中国地震局公布的数据符合较好,从而验证了开发的评价系统具有较好的可信度。     

Local seismic hazard assessment in areas of weak to moderate seismicity—case study from Eastern Germany

Generally the seismic hazard of an area of interest is considered independent of time. However, its seismic risk or vulnerability, respectively, increases with the population and developing state of economy of the area. Therefore, many areas of moderate seismic hazard gain increasing importance with respect to seismic hazard and risk analysis. However, these areas mostly have a weak earthquake database, i.e., they are characterised by relative low seismicity and uncertain information concerning historical earthquakes. In a case study for Eastern Thuringia (Germany), acting as example for similar places in the world, seismic hazard is estimated using the probabilistic approach. Because of the lack of earthquakes occurring in the recent past, mainly historical earthquakes have to be used. But for these the actual earthquake sources or active faults, needed for the analysis, are imprecisely known. Therefore, the earthquake locations are represented by areal sources, a common practice. The definition of these sources is performed carefully, because their geometrical shape and size (apart from the earthquake occurrence model) influence the results significantly. Using analysis tools such as density maps of earthquake epicentres, seismic strain and energy release support this. Oversizing of areal sources leads to underestimation of seismic hazard and should therefore be avoided. Large location errors of historical earthquakes on the other hand are represented by several alternative areal sources with final superimposition of the different results. In a very similar way information known from macroseismic observations interpreted as source rather than as site effects are taken into account in order to achieve a seismic hazard assessment as realistic as possible. In very local cases the meaning of source effects exceeds those of site effects very likely. The influence of attenuation parameter variations on the result of estimated local seismic hazard is relatively low. Generally, the results obtained by the seismic hazard assessment coincide well with macroseismic observations from the thoroughly investigated largest earthquake in the region.     

Loss caused by earthquakes: rapid estimates

Timely and adequate action just after a strong earthquake can result in significant benefits in saving lives, as well as other benefits. For these cases, information about possible damage and expected number of casualties is very critical for taking decision about search, rescue operations and offering humanitarian assistance. Such rough and rapid information may be provided by, first of all, “global systems” (i.e., systems that are operated wherever the earthquake has occurred on the globe), in emergency mode. This paper gives a brief history of existing “global systems” and analyzes the factors which influence the reliability of earthquake impact simulation in near real time.     

汶川地震和科学钻探

2008年5月12日,在我国四川省发生了震撼世界的汶川特大地震,给人民的生命财产造成了巨大的损失。在汶川特大地震发生及其余震尚在继续的特殊时期,快速实施汶川地震断裂带的科学钻探（WFSD）,是认识地震发生的机制、继续对余震进行有效监控以及提高地震监视和预警的能力的极佳机遇。2008年11月6日,汶川地震断裂带科学钻探工程开工典礼在四川省都江堰市虹口乡举行,标志着地震机制的研究跨上了新的台阶。通过对科学钻孔的直接取样,多学科观测和测试,揭示地震断裂带的深部组分、结构和构造属性,重塑地震断裂带的物理和化学过程,为提高未来地震的监测、预报或预警能力提供重要信息。     

地震滑坡危险性概念和基于力学模型的评估方法探讨

在我国大陆地区运用基于力学模型的Newmark位移分析方法开展地震滑坡危险性定量评估,尚处在起步阶段.为了进一步明确地震滑坡危险性概念和改进推广基于力学模型的评估方法,首先阐明了狭义的地震滑坡危险性预测评估与震后反演评估的关系; 同时为了应对地震应急、震后重建及潜在地震条件下的不同评估需求,初步提出了广义的地震滑坡危险性评估框架.随后申述了基于Newmark位移分析的地震滑坡危险性评估方法的理论基础、方法分类及最新进展,并以汶川地震滑坡危险性快速评估为例,剖析了目前影响评估有效性的不确定性及空间数据质量等问题,指出了基于力学模型的地震滑坡危险性评估方法的改进方向.建议开展潜在地震及其诱发滑坡危险性的耦合评估,建立适用于我国大陆地区地震滑坡位移分析的经验模型,以便为国家层面的地震滑坡危险性区划服务.     

"5.12"震后区域地质灾害危险性评价研究——以青川、平武县为例

四川省"5.12"地震影响区,诱发了大童滑坡、崩塌、泥石流等地质灾害,给人民生命财产造成了重大损失.震后要相当长的余震期,加之降雨大,地质灾害还有进一步恶化的趋势.运用地面调查方法很难满足要求,尤其是很难满足时效性,结合研究区地质背景特征和多源遥感数据解译结果,确定地质灾害评价的指标体系,综合运用数学方法、GIS技术,...     

新疆天山公路沿线地质灾害危险性评价

新疆天山公路（国道217线）是连接南、北疆的一条重要交通干线。通过调查研究沿线的地质条件,采用多元线性回归分析方法,选取地层岩性、地面坡度、相对高差、构造密度、多年平均降雨量、冻融作用、地震强度、植被覆盖率、开挖深度、灾害的分布密度和规模大小等11个评价因子,建立了地质灾害危险性级别的评价模型,得出了公路沿线的危险性级别图。     

Probability-based damage assessment for reinforced concrete bridge columns considering the corrosive and seismic hazards in Taiwan

In this paper, we consider the time at which earthquake events occur when analyzing seismic structural damage to a deteriorating RC bridge within a specified period. Because the uncertainty exists in the occurrence time of earthquake events, Monte Carlo simulation is applied. The proposed procedure for evaluating the exceedance probability, which corresponds to a specified limit state, is then applied to a case study of RC bridges in Taiwan to demonstrate its applicability. This study selects three typical RC bridges located in the Taipei Basin, Taiwan, to analyze exceedance probabilities of specified damage states during various specified periods and then discusses the cumulative damage effect on the exceedance probabilities of specified damage states. Additionally, for the chloride-induced deteriorating bridges at various distances to the sea in Suao, Taiwan, the effects of the deterioration and seismic structural damage on the exceedance probabilities of specified damage states are demonstrated and discussed. The proposed assessment procedure can help engineers understand whether the deterioration would accelerate the declining seismic performance of bridges and shorten their serviceability-related and safety-related service lives, as well as provide reference for repairing RC bridges and retrofitting their seismic performance.     

Modeling and assessment of bridge structure for seismic hazard prevention

This study uses data from Mao-Luo-Hsi Bridge to model the bridge structure and a set of developed alarm and action values to formulate guidelines for bridge maintenance and seismic hazard prevention. The bridge model is improved by incorporating on-site ambient vibration measurement to perform modal analyses. Dynamic analyses of the bridge are implemented using the established 3D model subjected to uniform loading and seismic force, with or without consideration of soil interaction with the structure. The maximum displacements for different sections of the bridge are compared, and statistical regression analyses are used to explore their correlation. Information for bridge safety assessment is proposed, which can mitigate loss of property and lives due to bridge failure. Regression analyses of the maximum displacements between abutments D and E of the considered bridge in the axial, horizontal, and vertical directions under various seismic intensities are conducted, giving R ² values of 0.9462, 0.9352, and 0.9010, respectively. The developed maintenance guidelines are reliable since all parameters from regression analyses have a 95% confidence interval excluding the zero value. The bridge alarm value and action value are determined for this bridge site at earthquake intensity scales of 4 and 5, respectively.