Possibilities and Limitations of Interdisciplinary, User-oriented Research: Experiences from the German Research Network Natural Disasters

The German Research Network for Natural Disasters (DFNK) linked 15 partners with scientific expertise in the field of natural hazards. Main objectives were the development and provision of the scientific fundamentals for an advanced risk management of important natural disasters in Germany, i.e., floods, earthquakes, storms and wildland fires. This included risk analyses, the development of information systems for supporting disaster management, and recommendations for risk reduction measures. This paper gives an overview of DFNK and summarises its experiences concerning multidisciplinarity and user-orientation. It illustrates the concept of risk chains, causally linking the different processes from hazard to risk. The step from hazard to risk requires interdisciplinary research teams. The experiences show that integrative concepts allow results not achievable with mono-disciplinary approaches. Integrative approaches pave the way to harmonised safety considerations taking into account the different hazards in a region within a common framework. User-orientation, policy advice and development of operational tools are key issues of disaster research. The experiences of DFNK illustrate the limitations of a research network in bridging the gap between research and application within rather short-term projects. Successful cooperation with users could be established by those activities where, at the beginning of the project, a user was identified who had a strong interest in solving an urgent problem.     

中国特别重大自然灾害损失统计的最新进展——《特别重大自然灾害损失统计制度》解析

以《特别重大自然灾害损失统计制度》(简称《统计制度》)主要执笔人的视角,详细阐述了制度的主要内容、蕴含的科学问题和未来研究方向。《统计制度》报表和指标设计在与现有国家标准保持一致、历经汶川地震等多次重特大灾害实践检验完善、充分吸收相关行业部门意见和建议、适用于多灾种与灾害链损失统计、实用于灾后恢复重建规划编制等方面均体现出其权威性与最新性,《统计制度》具备科学性、综合性、实用性和动态性等特征。《统计制度》在推进特别重大自然灾害损失综合评估、启发涉灾行业部门开展专项深入研究、引领地方建立相关制度等方面具有极大潜力。     

On the Use of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar Data for Monitoring and Forecasting Natural Hazards

Mathematical Geosciences - Recent advances in satellite technologies, statistical and mathematical models, and computational resources have paved the way for operational use of satellite data in...     

京津唐地区地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性空间分异的变化

以1985,1995,2000,2004年为代表时期,借助主成分分析等方法,初步研究了京津唐地区地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性近20年来的变化.结果表明:1985年以来,研究区地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性空间分异的变化,越来越显著地表现为4种主要脆弱性空间分异模式(Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ)的变化,各种模式的变化在形式、程度和主要驱动因素上各有特点:模式Ⅰ始终与研究区的城市化、人口与经济特别是工商业经济的发展水平密切相关,其变化以方差贡献变化为主,20年来该模式的方差贡献增加了约13%,对研究区脆弱性空间分异整体特点的影响不断加强;模式Ⅱ和模式Ⅲ一直与研究区农业、农村和农民问题关系密切,20年来两模式的变化主要体现在载荷分布和各模式反映的脆弱性区域分异格局上,且两模式及两模式的变化间还具有明显的反向特点;模式Ⅳ也发生了形式不同和程度各异的变化,但总的变化幅度相对较小.1985年以来,研究区地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性空间分异的整体格局总体稳定,不同时期地区间的脆弱性相对程度在横向上呈波动性变化,除京、津、唐、秦皇岛和承德等大中城市的市区及其周边部分辖县较明显外,其他地区均以小幅调整为主.     

陕北能源化工基地潜水易污性评价

随着陕北能源化工基地的建设和发展,地下水污染问题日益突出。为了预防基地地下水的污染,保护水资源,依据陕北能源化工基地地下水勘查、地下水污染调查、野外包气带原位污水垂直入渗、水平运移试验等基础资料,选取潜水位埋深（D）、降雨入渗补给量（R）、含水层岩性（A）、土壤类型（S）、地形坡度（T）、包气带介质（I）和含水层渗透系数（C）7个指标,运用DRASTIC指标叠加法,建立了陕北能源化工基地潜水易污性评价指标体系,对陕北能源化工基地潜水进行了易污性评。依据评价结果,将研究区潜水区划分为易污性高、中、低3个区,并针对3个区提出了相应的防污建议。     

The Importance of Prehistoric Data and Variability of Hazard Regimes in Natural Hazard Risk Assessment – Examples from Australia

Natural hazards are normally viewed as events that occur randomly overtime. This precept usually forms the basis for the development of the hazardmagnitude-recurrence interval relationship used in risk assessments. However,hazard variability does not always conform to this relationship especially overlonger time intervals. Non-stationarity can be common with some hazards andthose periods where the variability and/or mean (magnitude/frequency) remainconstant are referred to here as hazard regimes. Shifts from one regime to anotheroccur at a variety of time scales from centuries to millennia. Regime shifts areoften only discernible by examining longer-term records which usually includeprehistoric data. Risk assessments frequently ignore these regime shifts andestimates of the risks associated with tropical cyclones, tsunami, terrestrialfloods and landslides in Australia have been both under-estimated and exaggeratedwhen such assessments have been based solely upon short historical records.Examples of these regime shifts and their significance for natural hazard riskassessment are presented here.     

北京及其北部地区大气自然降尘矿物组成特征

为研究北京地区大气自然降尘的矿物组成特征及其时空变化规律,采用XRD分析了不同季节收集的大气降尘样品。结果表明,大气降尘主要矿物为石英,平均含量为83.19%,长石以斜长石为主;降尘中的碳酸盐类矿物主要是方解石和白云石,它们在降尘中的含量接近其在北方黄土中的含量;降尘中粘土矿物的含量较少,为1.64%~5.88%,其中有较多的高岭石,反映了研究区半湿润、较温暖的环境。聚类分析表明本区降尘按矿物组成特征可分为城市和郊区两组。与大风天气少的月份相比,大风天气频繁的月份降尘中的长石等矿物含量相对较高,而粘土矿物含量相对较低。     

International Comparisons of Large-scale Natural Disasters Damage and Loss Assessment: Based on “Statistical System of Large-scale Natural Disasters” and PDNA

In June 2014, the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the National Disaster Reduction Committee Office issued the “Statistical System of Large-scale Natural Disasters Damage and Loss” (SSLNDD&L), in which the standard statistical content and index were explored. Examined by several major natural disasters in recent years, such as Ludian earthquake (Ms 6.5) on 3 August 2014, Nepal earthquake (Ms 8.1) on 25 April 2015, SSLNDD&L provided good basis for post disaster recovery and reconstruction planning, but the direct guidance of reconstruction planning was still limited. Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA), the mainstream of the international disaster needs assessment system, was taken as the main research object, and the content and characteristics of PDNA system were analyzed in detail. The comparison analysis was made from the objectives, contents and index system, evaluation methodology, evaluation parameters between the SSLNDD&L and PDNA. In the future, expanding and increasing various industries and local evaluation index focusing on recovery and reconstruction needs, optimizing the disaster assessment parameter database used for the multi-user such as the Central-Province-County scale, supporting the preparation of technical standard optimization evaluation process to form a complete assessment technical specification should be put forward as the future development of the SSLNDD&L. It is of great practical significance to optimize and perfect the content and index of the SSLNDD&L to better serve the decision making of the recovery and reconstruction after large-scale disasters, and to achieve international standards on large-scale disaster damage & loss statistics and assessment in China.     

Vulnerability to natural disasters in Serbia: spatial and temporal comparison

The frequency of natural disasters and the extent of their consequences at a global level are constantly increasing. This trend is partially caused by increased population vulnerability, which implies the degree of population vulnerability due to high-magnitude natural processes. This paper presents an analysis of vulnerability to natural disaster in Serbia in the second half of the twentieth and the early twenty-first century. Vulnerability changes were traced on the basis of demographic–economic indicators derived from statistical data for local government units (municipalities) provided by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. Calculations were performed in the geographical information system environment. The results of the study show that spatial and temporal vulnerability variations are causally correlated with changes in the selected components. Significant rise of vulnerability is related to urban areas, while lower values are characteristic for other areas of Serbia; this is primarily a consequence of different population density.     

Mountain Protection Forests against Natural Hazards and Risks: New French Developments by Integrating Forests in Risk Zoning

Forests can play a very significant role in protection against natural hazards and risks in mountain lands, especially against erosion and rockfalls. This paper first assesses knowledge concerning the capacity of forests to control natural hazards, with emphasis placed on forest location in catchments or slopes. Zoning aspects are then presented; based on the use of GIS, they allow determining priorities for forestry operations (cuts and biological engineering), in view to setting up an 'optimal management' of mountain forest ecosystems. Finally, an explanation is given of how the results of research are used for the management and planning of mountain ecosystems, illustrated by an example of researcher-practitioner transfer in France. Zoning, prevention, display and regular aspects are developed. On the basis of the experience and knowledge presented here, recommendations are proposed to better take into account the role of mountain forests in the control of natural hazards and risks. It is necessary to have an adapted legislative and economic framework, define priority forest intervention zones and determine an adapted sylviculture.     

塔北天然气组分特征及同位素组成

通过对塔北天然气32个样品的化学组分特征,甲烷的碳、氢同位素组成及关系,以及单烃碳同位素系列特征,甲烷的碳同位素组成与烃类组分关系等方面的综合研究揭示了塔北不同油气区不同井位天然气的成因类型以及某些井位天然气的来源,为塔北油气勘探提供了有价值的信息。     

Perspectives of Natural Disasters in East and South Asia,and the Pacific Island States: Socio-economic Correlates and Needs Assessment

The regions of East and South Asia, and the Pacific Islands are among the most-hazardprone areas in the world. Because of this, during the last century, most of the humancasualties of `natural-triggered' disasters have taken place in this region. This circumstance therefore has become a major global humanitarian concern. Another major concern, specifically for the donor agencies, is the damage sustained by infrastructure resulting from environmental disasters. These recurrent loses take away a significant proportion of the cumulative economic gains accrued from development investments over many years.Stepwise multiple regression results substantiated the fact that many of the socio-economic and demographic variables significantly influence disaster-related deaths and injuries in this part of the world. A comparative temporal analysis has shown that, over the past two decades, demographic variables have become prominent predictors of disaster-loss in South, Southeast and East Asian and the Pacific states.Many countries of the region are lagging behind in understanding and recognizing thebroader scope of disaster mitigation and management. Emerging needs and awarenessamong the decision-makers and the general public, however, have prompted institutionsin many countries to initiate a critical review of the prevailing approaches. Thecountry-specific disaster-management capacities and needs in the region vary widely.There are many differences in historical courses, institutional and administrative settings, sociocultural characteristics, as well as political and economic systems. Development of a common institutional framework for the region, therefore, seems unfeasible. Based upon a regional review, it has become clear that the research calls for improving the understanding of the significance of disaster mitigation and management in light of sustainable development and the emerging global issues. In addition, aspects of human resource development to enhance institutional mitigation and response capacities are emphasized.     

澳大利亚油气地质资料汇交与公开制度及其借鉴意义

油气地质资料是国家重要的资源,其作用的发挥取决于地质资料的管理水平,而资料汇交和公开是资料管理中的重要内容。澳大利亚联邦和各州在油气地质资料的汇交和公开方面都有完善的法律规定,以罚款和矿权审查作为主要的手段约束矿权所有人的汇交行为,通过属地化管理为汇交油气地质资料提供便利条件,建立完善的资料管理信息系统,提高资料的管理和使用效率。中国在油气地质资料管理方面存在诸多问题。需要完善法律法规,严格落实矿权管理制度来促进资料的汇交;推行属地化管理,打破原有的条块分割,降低资料管理成本;完善现行的委托保管制度,加大在油气地质资料管理方面的资金投入;加快建立全国油气地质资料管理服务系统,通过公益服务与商业服务相结合的方式来提高资料共享水平。     

Assessment of Plant Community Characteristics in Natural and Human-Altered Coastal Marsh Ecosystems

Salt marsh ecosystems provide many critical ecological functions, yet they are subject to considerable disturbance ranging from direct human alteration to increased inundation due to climate change. We assessed emergent salt marsh plant characteristics in the Tuckerton Peninsula, a large expanse (~ 2000 ha) of highly inundated habitat along the southern New Jersey coast, USA. Key salt marsh plant parameters were monitored in the heavily grid-ditched northern segment, Open Marsh Water Management (OMWM) altered central segment, and the shoreline altered southern segment of the peninsula in the summer months of 2011 and 2013. Plant species composition and three metrics of abundance and structure (maximum canopy height, percent areal cover, and shoot density) were examined among marsh segments, along transects within segments, seasonally by month and between years. Despite seasonal or annual variability, the northern segment of the marsh differed in plant species composition from the central and southern segments. This difference was partly due to greater percent areal cover in the northern segment of upper marsh species such as Spartina patens and Distichlis spicata. S. patens also exhibited higher shoot densities in the northern segment than the central segment. Despite the higher abundance of upper marsh species, marsh surface elevations were lower in the northern segment than in the central or southern segments, suggesting the influence of altered hydrology due to human activities. Understanding current variation in the emergent salt marsh vegetation along the peninsula will help inform future habitat change in other coastal wetlands of New Jersey and the mid-Atlantic region subject to natural and anthropogenic drivers.     

新疆昆仑山北缘一带含金硅铁建造中金矿床特征及找矿标志

含金硅铁建造型铁金矿是近年来在新疆昆仑山地区发现的又一具有重要远景意义的矿床类型,经过地学工作者们艰苦努力,已经相继发现帕西木、苦阿-恰克能萨依、麻特等多处矿床(点).矿床产于石炭系阿羌岩组(C1a),含矿岩系为一套海底喷发-喷流沉积形成的海相火山喷发-正常碎屑沉积夹含金硅铁建造,区域上具有明显的层控矿床特征,类似于我国黑龙江省"东风山式"金矿,成因类型属火山-沉积作用有关的沉积变质改造型矿床.     

Cambrian Magmatism in the Northern Urals: New Data on the Age and Formation Conditions

Cambrian igneous formations in the Northern Urals were identified and described for the first time. It was established that the Timanide orogeny terminated in the Early Cambrian and was followed by continental rifting above a mantle plume in the Late Cambrian.