Assessing Climate Change in the Contiguous United States Using a Modified Thornthwaite Climate Classification Scheme

Climate change across the contiguous United States is investigated using a modified version of Thornthwaite's climate classification scheme. This approach allows both moisture and thermal conditions to be examined simultaneously for a better assessment of multivariate climate change. Changes in area of different climate types over time is determined using the climate year approach and the spatial nature of climate change is examined by computing climate types based on averages from three thirty-year periods over the twentieth century. Over the study period from 1895 to 2005, statistically significant changes in areal coverage of different climate types have occurred. In the eastern half of the country, climate divisions have become wetter and changed to moister climate categories. The most prominent change has occurred in the Deep South, where the climate has changed to both a lower thermal category and a wetter moisture category. Much of the country has experienced positive temperature trends, but only climate divisions in the Southwest and Upper Midwest show changes to higher thermal categories.     

Vulnerability of pastoral farming in Hawke's Bay to future climate change: Development of a pre‐screening (bottom‐up) methodology

Although future climate change will significantly affect New Zealand's climate, how regional climates will be changed remains highly uncertain. As a consequence, pre‐screening sensitivity analysis is recommended for climate‐sensitive activities. A ‘bottom‐up’ approach intended to serve this purpose in the context of non‐irrigated pasture is developed and demonstrated in the Hawke's Bay context. This is achieved using a simple daily water balance model to simulate near‐surface hydrological processes and empirical relationships between transpiration and pasture dry matter production. The Hawke's Bay case study indicates that the methodology has merit and is worthwhile pursuing nationally (with refinements).     

气候变化对植物多样性的影响研究综述

植物多样性是生态系统结构和功能的基础,气候变化已对其产生了深刻的影响,甚至于严重威胁.植物多样性的减少或丧失必然会影响生态系统结构和功能的稳定性,导致严重的生态、经济和社会后果.植物多样性对气候变化的响应受控于气温和水分的动态平衡.本文系统总结了气候变暖和降水格局变化对植物多样性的影响,分析了气候变化对不同生态系统、群...     

全球气候治理的伦理学讨论

气候变化及其应对在短短20年期间逐渐成为全球重要议题,以何种共赢、共识的方式行动起来,这不仅仅是技术进步问题,更是对人类集体认知的挑战。因此,需要从伦理学的角度尤其是基于气候变化的长期性和不确定性认识考虑全球气候治理问题。首先经济手段是全球行动和气候决策的最有效方法,但是它仍然存在各种争议,经济目标并非进行决策的唯一选项,除了经济上的效率原则,人类生活中还需要其他原则。其次,在应对决策上,不论是减缓还是适应,不论是征税还是补贴或是不同的贴现率决策,都需要更公平公正的路径来实现共赢,而这又必然涉及代际公平的讨论,进而又必然导致伦理准则的讨论。再次在气候变化决策模拟过程中,任何一个参数的设置和选择都涉及到价值判断,从而又让争论回到伦理原则。另外,不同国家和政府基于不同的国情和目的采取各种各样的碳税政策,要统一或协调可以用于全球所有国家和地区的标准就不仅仅是经济学问题,而是公平问题。因此基于全球气候治理的复杂性,文章提出基于更全面科学认知基础上的政策模拟才是人类进行气候治理的最佳方法。     

The role of personal experiences in Norwegian perceptions of climate change

ABSTRACT

It is commonly assumed that personal experiences of a changing climate will influence people’s attitudes to the extent that they will be more likely to acknowledge anthropogenic climate change as a real threat and therefore be more willing to accept both mitigation and adaptation efforts. In the article, the authors examine how survey participants’ personal experiences of extreme events and climate-related changes in the natural environment influenced their perceptions of climate change. Using data from a nationally representative survey conducted in Norway in 2015 and the results of logistic regressions, the authors find that individual observations of changes in nature were linked to higher levels of concern with regard to climate change, as well as to attitudes that were more positive towards personal mitigation and adaption efforts. Somewhat counter-intuitively, they also find that participants who had personally experienced a natural hazard event were less concerned about climate change compared with participants without such experiences. The authors conclude that personal experience of the consequences of climate change may in some cases have a limited effect on enhancing people’s concerns about climate change.     

‘The global warming clock is ticking so see these places while you can’: Voyeuristic tourism and model environmental citizens on Tuvalu's disappearing islands

At a time when climate change is being defined and grappled with around the world as a looming large‐scale environmental crisis, low‐lying Pacific islands are being publicized in a range of practices as ‘disappearing islands’, and their inhabitants as future ‘climate refugees’. This paper is concerned with the disappearing island as a space in which new intersections between environmentalism and tourism can be explored. It analyzes specifically western representational practices associated with climate change imperatives on Tuvalu, an atoll state in the central Pacific. New phenomena are emerging there such as climate change tourism and the transformation of the islands into showcases of renewable energy. These phenomena are analyzed in order to understand how climate change meanings are being shaped by various participants in the debate. I argue that Pacific islanders are heroized as climate change saviours when environmentalists attempt to locate ethnocentric notions of environmentally harmonious, ‘traditional’ culture on disappearing islands. Further, islanders are objectified in the rhetoric of climate change tourism. Imagined destinies for atoll dwellers as climate saviours are sited uncomfortably alongside voyeuristic gazes turned towards inundated islands. Competing forces of compassion and voyeurism produced in the name of the Tuvaluan indigene are entrenching an iconic role for the Tuvaluan atoll dweller as climate change hero/victim.     

Perceptions of climate change in China: The research and policy connection

Global climate change has evolved from a scientific problem into an economic and political problem oI worlOwloe rater- est. National perspectives play a crucial role in addressing climate change. Mutual understanding of perspectives is nec- essary to result in rational policies and a consensus among stakeholders with divergent interests. Conceptual frameworks for understanding the problem of climate change in China, the largest developing country and the largest greenhouse gas emitter, are of great significance to national and international efforts to address the problems of climate change. Chinese perceptions of climate change as a sustainable development problem have recently been in tension with an emerging Western perspective that frames climate change as a security issue. This paper explores Chinese perceptions of climate change as expressed in recent governmental policy statements, public opinion surveys, and academic scholarship with a focus on publications in Chinese-language journals, often unfamiliar in the West. It looks at the relationship between Chinese research and policy and finds that the Chinese policy frame of climate change as a sustainable development problem draws from the body of domestic research and is reflective of the perspectives and multidisciplinary approach of Chinese researchers in areas of climate change.     

中国内陆热带地区近40年气候变化特征

用西双版纳6个气象站40余年观测资料,探讨中国内陆热带地区气候变化特征及趋势。结果表明:西双版纳地区的平均气温、平均最低气温、平均最高气温总体上呈逐年增暖的趋势,其中平均气温上升率0.016 5～0.033 4℃/a,平均最低气温上升率0.008 6～0.038 7℃/a,平均最高气温上升率-0.001 4～0.018 6℃/a;降水长期变化特征则较复杂,规律不如气温明显,但总体趋势减少,年降水量变化主要决定于雨季降水量变化;相对湿度呈现逐年降低趋势。说明该地区气候向干热型转变。     

Vulnerability of natural ecosystem in China under regional climate scenarios:An analysis based on eco-geographical regions简

Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology, and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study, LPJ model modified according to features of China＇s natural ecosystems was em- ployed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2, B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions, vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China＇s natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west, but the pattern of ecosystem vulner- ability would not be altered by climate change, which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in eco- system vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale, natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by cli- mate change. However, in mid-term and long-term scales, there would be severely adverse effect, particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition.     

气候变化情景下中国自然生态系统脆弱性研究——一个基于生态地理区域的研究(英文)

Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology, and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study, LPJ model modified according to features of China's natural ecosystems was employed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2, B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions, vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China's natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west, but the pattern of ecosystem vulnerability would not be altered by climate change, which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in ecosystem vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale, natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by climate change. However, in mid-term and long-term scales, there would be severely adverse effect, particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition.     

Vulnerability of natural ecosystem in China under regional climate scenarios：An analysis based on eco-geographical regions

Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology,and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study,LPJ model modified according to features of China's natural ecosystems was employed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2,B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions,vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China's natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west,but the pattern of ecosystem vulnerability would not be altered by climate change,which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in ecosystem vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale,natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by climate change. However,in mid-term and long-term scales,there would be severely adverse effect,particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition.     

国内外农户对气候变化/变异感知与适应研究

基于国内外农户气候变化感知和适应研究进展,在辨析气候变化和气候变异概念的基础上,阐释农户气候变化/变异感知结果及影响因素。研究发现农户气候变化感知与适应行为之间存在不确定关系,农户气候变化感知直接转化为适应策略需克服一系列障碍因素。针对农户气候变化适应策略,在系统梳理国内外农户适应策略的基础上,对这些策略是否属于气候变化和变异适应行为提出质疑,认为不能忽略其他复杂的社会经济和政治因素对这些措施的驱动作用。最后,对中国未来研究提出慎重大规模开展农户气候变化感知及适应研究、厘清气候变化/变异感知与适应策略之间关系和重视时空异质性以及农户异质性研究三点展望。     

Foreword to the special issue: climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in the Arctic

The Arctic climate is changing, carrying wide-ranging implications for indigenous and non-indigenous inhabitants, businesses, industry and government across the circumpolar region. The latest scientific assessments indicate that change is happening faster than previously thought, and that the Arctic will continue to experience dramatic climate change in the future. This special edition of Polar Research brings together nine papers on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in the Arctic, providing important insights on the nature of the risks and opportunities posed by climate change in the circumpolar region, highlighting opportunities for policy response and providing insights on how to conduct effective climate change research with Arctic communities.     

An overview of late Holocene climate and environmental change inferred from Arctic lake sediment

The 14 papers in this Special Issue of the Journal of Paleolimnology report new records of Holocene climate and environmental change from Arctic lakes, with emphasis on the last 2000 years. The study sites span the high latitudes of North America and extend into northwestern Europe. The studies rely on multiple proxy indicators to reconstruct past climate, including: varve thicknesses, chironomid, diatom, and pollen assemblages, biogenic-silica and organic-matter content, oxygen-isotope ratios in diatoms, and the frequency of lake-ice-rafted aggregates. These proxies primarily document changes in past summer temperatures, the main control on physical and biological processes in lakes at high latitudes. The records will be integrated into a larger network of paleoclimate sites to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of climate change and to compare the paleoclimate inferences with the output of general circulation models. This is the Introduction to a series of fourteen papers published as a special issue dedicated to reconstructing late Holocene climate change from Arctic lake sediments. The special issue is a contribution to the International Polar Year and was edited by Darrell Kaufman.     

作物气候风险研究:以河南省棉花为例

1 Introduction In the past 100 years the global temperature rose sharply due to the increase of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. The mean ground temperature rose by 0.5–0.6°C in the 20th century and 0.3–0.4°C in the last 20 years of the c…     

Map-Based Web Tools Supporting Climate Change Adaptation

This article discusses the state of the art in geovisualization supporting climate change adaptation. We reviewed twenty selected map-based Web tools, classified by their content and functionality, and assessed them by visual representations, interactive functions, information type, target audience, and how vulnerability and adaptation to climate change are addressed. Our study concludes that the tools (1) can be classified as data viewers with basic functionality and data explorers offering more sophisticated interactive functions; (2) mostly feature moderate or high richness of data content; and (3) predominantly target expert users.     

Progress in China’s climate change study in the 20th century

IPCC (2001) pointed out that the earth's climate was undergoing a remarkable change with characteristics of global warming over the past 100 years. The latest research showed that the global mean surface temperature has increased by about 0.6 oC since 1861. It is very likely that the last 20 years in the 20th century was the warmest decades. The Northern Hemisphere temperatures in the 20th century appeared to have been unprecedented during the past millennium. The research also indicates th…     

淮河流域单季稻气候风险研究

综合考虑单季稻气候适宜性水平及其变率变化,构建单季稻的风险度模型,运用滑动建模技术对淮河流域单季稻的气候风险性进行了动态分析与评估。根据风险分布将淮河流域单季稻温度、降水、日照和气候风险大致分为三种类型:低风险型、中风险型和高风险型;在时间变化上,近几十年来,淮河流域单季稻气候风险度有逐渐增加的趋势;并随着时间的推移,在空间上东部风险较低的区域有逐渐降低的趋势,而西部气候风险高的地区有进一步增大并向东部沿海扩展的趋势。     

气候变化情景下中国自然生态系统脆弱性研究

本研究以动态植被模型LPJ 为主要工具,以区域气候模式工具PRECIS 产生的A2、B2和A1B情景气候数据为输入,模拟了未来气候变化下中国自然生态系统的变化状况,应用脆弱性评价模型,评估中国自然生态系统响应未来气候变化的脆弱性。结果表明:未来气候变化情景下中国东部地区脆弱程度呈上升趋势,西部地区呈下降趋势,但总体上,中国自然生态系统的脆弱性格局没有大的变化,仍呈现西高东低、北高南低的特点。受气候变化影响严重的地区是东北和华北地区,而青藏高原区南部和西北干旱区受气候变化影响,脆弱程度明显减轻。气候变化情景下的近期气候变化对我国生态系统的影响不大,但中、远期气候变化对生态系统的负面影响较大,特别是在自然条件相对较好的东部地区,脆弱区面积增加较多。     

一种新的气候变化敏感区的定义方法与预估

气候变化敏感区的研究是气候变化研究的一个重要方向,前人对气候变化敏感区的定义大多基于单一的指标,而对综合性指标研究较少。基于柯本气候分类法所划分出的中国气候类型分布及其变化频次,提出一种新的气候变化敏感区定义方法,并使用该方法划分中国的气候变化敏感区,气候类型变化频繁的区域被认为是敏感区。选取CESM模型中等碳排放（RCP 4.5）下的模拟数据计算2006-2013年、21世纪40年代和90年代气候类型的变化,以此预估未来30~80年间气候变化敏感带的变化。结果显示：依据本文提出的方法划分的气候变化敏感区,与降水变化敏感区有较好拟合;中国气候变化最敏感的区域分布在黑河腾冲线附近、秦岭淮河一线、青藏高原西部和天山以北部分地区,气候最为稳定的区域分布在青藏高原中东部、昆仑山、祁连山以北、天山以南、贺兰山以西的大片区域和大兴安岭附近;未来30~80年间,西部（贺兰山、横断山以西）地区气候变化敏感区基本不变,而东部地区的气候变化敏感区则逐渐向北偏移。