Adaptation models of mountain glacier tourism to climate change: a case study of Mt. Yulong Snow scenic area

Mountain glaciers have an obvious location advantage and tourist market condition over polar and high latitude glaciers. Due to the enormous economic benefit and heritage value, some mountain glaciers will always receive higher attention from commercial media, government departments and mountain tourists in China and abroad. At present, more than 100 glaciers have been developed successfully as famous tourist destinations all over the world. However, global climate change seriously affects mountain glaciers and its surrounding environment. According to the current accelerated retreat trend, natural and cultural landscapes of some glaciers will be weakened, even disappear in the future. Climate change will also inevitably affect mountain ecosystems, and tourism routes under ice and glacier experience activities in these ecosystems. Simultaneously, the disappearance of mountain glaciers will also lead to a clear reduction of tourism and local economic benefits. Based on these reasons, this paper took Mt. Yulong Snow scenic area as an example and analyzed the retreat trend of a typical glacier. We then put forward some scientific and rational response mechanisms and adaptation models based on climate change in order to help future sustainable development of mountain glacier tourism.     

A georeferenced agent-based model to analyze the climate change impacts on ski tourism at a regional scale

One main argument for modeling socio-ecological systems is to advance the understanding of dynamic correlations between various human and environmental factors, including impacts and responses to environmental change. We explore the shift in skier distribution among ski resorts taking into account the behavioral adaptation of individuals due to the impact of climate change on snow conditions. This analysis is performed at a regional scale by means of a coupled gravity and georeferenced agent-based model. Four different scenarios are considered. Two scenarios assume an increase of winter mean temperature of +2°C and +4°C, respectively, taking into account only natural snow conditions. Two additional scenarios add the effect of snowmaking to enhance the natural snow depth and extend the skiing season in the +2°C and +4°C base scenarios. Results show differing vulnerability levels, allowing the classification of ski resorts into three distinct groups: (1) highly vulnerable ski resorts with a strong reduction in visitors attendance for all climate change scenarios, characterized by unfavorable geographical and attractiveness conditions, making it difficult to ensure snow availability in the future; (2) low vulnerability ski resorts, with moderate reduction in season length during a high climate change scenario but no reduction (or even an increase) in a low one, characterized by ski resorts with a medium capacity and attractiveness to ensure enough snow conditions and capture skiers from other ski resorts; and (3) resilient ski resorts, with good conditions to ensure future snow-reliable seasons and outstanding attractiveness, allowing them to offer longer ski seasons than their competitors and potentially attracting skiers from other closed or marginal resorts. Ski resorts included in this last group increase their skier attendance in all climate change scenarios. Although similar studies in the literature foretell a significant reduction of the ski market in the near future, another probable effect outlined in this study is a redefinition of this market due to a redistribution of skiers, from vulnerable ski resorts to more resilient ones.     

气候变化对中国观鸟旅游的影响——基于鸟类物候变化的分析

全球观鸟活动的规模达到了每年几千万人次,观鸟旅游已经成为世界野生动物观赏业的重要组成部分。气候变化改变了鸟类物候期及其空间格局,这不仅会影响观鸟者的旅游活动,还会进一步对观鸟旅游利益相关者的生计产生影响。监测并尽早地识别出这些影响,提醒利益相关者采取有效的适应策略意义重大。本文引入物候期这一气候变化的"指示器"来反映开展观鸟旅游的重要资源基础——鸟类活动时间以及栖息地格局的变化。通过对1980-2010年中国26个地区的98个物候序列的鸟类研究进行荟萃分析发现:中国鸟类离开、抵达、停留时间以及鸟类栖息地的格局都已经发生了改变。春季、夏季鸟类会提前离开或抵达,但在秋季它们的活动会延迟。鸟类停留的时间主要呈现延长的趋势。温度升高会使鸟类停留时间变长,对观鸟旅游的开展有利。中国低纬度地区和西部地区鸟类停留时间更长。鸟类栖息地的格局呈现出向北和向西迁移的特征。游客和景区工作人员均已感知到鸟类活动时间以及栖息地格局的变化对观鸟旅游产生的影响。     

基于微博大数据的气候变化对中国赏樱旅游的影响

研究气候变化对生态系统旅游和休闲功能的影响是旅游地理学的重要领域。本文发展和优化了基于Logistic曲线从微博大数据中提取赏樱旅游活动开展时间的方法,并从2879033条与樱花相关的新浪微博大数据中筛选出587891条有效微博,进而提取和重建了中国2010—2019年赏樱旅游活动时间数据集,该数据集通过了物候站点观测数据和与温度响应关系的验证。在此基础上分析了过去10 a中国21个城市赏樱旅游活动始日、末日和持续期的时空格局,并模拟和预测了SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5两种气候情景下,2020—2050年中国赏樱旅游活动时间的变化趋势。结果表明：① 过去10 a,全国大部分城市赏樱旅游活动始日提前（占比61.9%）,末日提前（占比76.2%）,持续期缩短（占比52.4%）。纬度每升高1°,始日、末日分别推迟0.286 d（P < 0.01）和0.394 d（P < 0.01）,持续期缩短0.286 d（P > 0.05）。② 未来气候情景下,大部分城市赏樱旅游活动始日和末日提前,持续期延长。SSP5-8.5情景对赏樱旅游活动的影响比SSP2-4.5情景更明显。本文的方法和框架能够为气候变化对特定旅游活动的影响研究提供基于大数据视角的参考。     

近39 a宁夏旅游气候适宜期及变化分析

利用宁夏全域5个地市1980—2018年逐日白昼气温、相对湿度、风速、日照时数等气象资料,运用温湿指数、风寒指数、着衣指数和综合舒适指数模型,计算出旅游气候适宜期天数,并对其变化趋势及变化原因进行分析。综合舒适指数模型结果表明:石嘴山、银川、吴忠、中卫4市的旅游气候适宜期较为一致,为3月10日～11月7日,持续时长为243 d。固原的旅游气候适宜期为3月27日～10月29日,持续时长为217 d;石嘴山、吴忠、中卫全年旅游适宜天数变化不显著,是由始期、终期适宜天数增加幅度与"凹"面期适宜天数的减少幅度相当所致。银川、固原全年旅游适宜天数显著增加,主要是始期、终期适宜天数增加幅度大于"凹"面期适宜天数的减少幅度所致;各地始期、终期适宜天数显著增加是由气温升高、相对湿度降低和其他要素的差异变化共同作用所致。"凹"面期适宜天数显著减少是由气温升高(高温日数增多)、相对湿度降低和其他要素的差异变化共同作用所致;各地始期、终期、"凹"面期,气温的显著变化对适宜天数显著变化的影响权重最大,达到50%以上,相对湿度、风速、日照时数的影响权重各有差异。     

Effect of climate change and railway embankment on the degradation of underlain permafrost

Because of the global warming and the increasing human activity, the air temperature and the precipitation along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway increased gradually in recent years, which endanger the permafrost table, the embankment of the railway. The statistics of the air temperature, the precipitation and the geothermal temperature in recent 50 years in this dissertation come from the four weather station along the railway, that are Wudaoliang Station, Fenghuo Mountains Station, Tuotuo River Station and Ando Station. This dissertation analyzes the change of climate along the railway and then develops a research on the effect of the changing geothermal temperature on permafrost table and its countermeasures. The experiment result shows that the air temperature of the permafrost region rise steadily in about 50 years, especially in this century, the tendency of rising temperature is more obvious. The precipitation fluctuates but it is also rising rapidly, for the largest precipitation reached 492.6 mm. For 30 years now, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has been in the megathermal period, which also affects the permafrost region along the railway. The condition of permafrost is degrading greatly.     

农户生计对气候变化的恢复力研究综述

随着气候变化对自然生态环境和社会经济可持续发展影响的不断加剧,恢复力逐渐成为应对气候变化的一种新理念。首先梳理了不同领域恢复力概念,进而阐述了农户生计对气候变化的恢复力的科学内涵及研究框架。然后重点分析了农户生计对气候变化的恢复力在资本、政府机构、自组织能力和学习能力四方面的具体表现。最后从定性和定量两方面归纳了生计恢复力的度量方法。定性评价方法主要包括农户问卷调查、关键线人访谈、重点小组讨论、生计轨迹方法和案例分析等,定量评价方法包括指标替代法、结构动力学分析法、贝叶斯网络模型法、基准线对比法等。未来研究应注重完善农户生计对气候变化的恢复力评价方法、加强农户生计对气候变化的恢复力动态研究并且开展区域间农户生计对气候变化的恢复力对比研究。     

气候变化对东北地区玉米生产的影响

利用气象观测数据、玉米产量及面积资料,分析了东北地区气候变化事实及对玉米生产的影响。研究表明:1971年以来,东北地区≥10℃积温增加了262.8℃,≥10℃积温带(以2700℃为例)平原区向北推进了约200～300km左右,向东扩展50～150km。1991年开始玉米生长季(4～9月)降水量持续减少,年平均水分亏缺量达391.5mm,湿润区缩小,有变干趋势。初霜日推后7～9天,无霜期延长了14～21天,霜冻灾害几率降低。20世纪90年代后,玉米延迟型冷害进入低发期。随着热量资源的增加,玉米可种植区范围不断扩大,种植北界北移东扩,玉米适播起始时间提前。玉米总产、播种面积增加趋势分别为967万t/10a、72万hm2/10a。未来40年东北地区玉米产量以减产为主,与过去30年(1961～1990年)相比平均减产9.5%左右。调整玉米种植布局和品种搭配,依靠水利工程和推广旱作农业技术,选种耐旱、抗病、抗逆性强的玉米品种,是实现东北玉米生产可持续发展的主要措施。     

气候变化对成都桃花观赏旅游的影响与人类适应行为

基于中国物候观测网14年桃花盛花期数据,1987-2014年四川历年报纸100余条桃花节日期记录,以及1987-2013年研究区月均温数据,采用小波分析,相关分析等方法评估了气候变化对桃花观赏旅游的影响.结果表明:研究区气候变化显著,物候期对气候变化高度敏感,桃花盛花期前三个月和前一个月温度升高1℃,盛花期分别提前6.47天和4.16天.桃花节开幕日期与温度变化趋势及周期对比,两者相关分析发现,过去近30年,成都桃花节组织者通常会根据温度变化调节赏花节开幕日期,但2000-2008年更多的是将节日安排在周末.研究证明气候变化已通过改变植物花期,对赏花旅游产生了影响.管理部门调节节庆日期的方式是赏花旅游适应气候变化影响的有效策略.研究可为评估气候变化对其他时令旅游活动的影响提供新的视角和方法,也可为中国赏花旅游提出适应气候变化的有效策略提供科学依据.     

气候变化对中亚草地生态系统碳循环的影响研究

准确评估草地生产力、碳源/碳汇功能,分析气候变化对草地生态系统碳循环的影响,对于草地资源的合理开发和有效保护至关重要。选取对气候变化以及人类干扰高度敏感的中亚干旱区草地生态系统为研究对象,利用Biome-BGC模型,模拟分析其NPP、NEP的年际变化趋势及其空间分布格局。结果显示：（1）1979-2011年中亚地区草地生态系统NPP年平均值为135.6 gC·m^-2·a^-1,且随着时间的推移呈现出波动下降的趋势,下降速率为0.34 gC·m^-2·a^-1。（2）NEP的年平均值为-8.3 gC·m^-2·a^-1,表现为碳源,且该值随着时间的推移呈现出波动上升的趋势,上升速率为0.58 gC·m^-2·a^-1。（3）NPP高值区域在降水较为丰富的天山山脉附近以及哈萨克斯坦北部。（4）NPP的年际变化与降水量的年际变化趋势基本一致,相关系数为0.52;NPP与温度的相关系数为-0.28,未达到显著相关水平。本研究实现了Biome-BGC模型在中亚干旱区草地生态系统的应用,对评价干旱区草地生态系统碳源/碳汇功能及其在全球碳循环和全球变化中的作用、实现中亚草地生态系统的可持续利用、完善区域和全球碳循环理论体系具有重要意义。     

气候变化感知对城市居民冰雪旅游环境责任行为的影响机制——以北京市为例

冰雪旅游是推动冰雪经济与旅游产业高质量融合发展的重要途径,现已成为文旅产业中最具潜力的领域之一。然而在全球气候变化的影响下,冰雪旅游发展面临严峻挑战。文章以北京市为例,运用结构方程模型对冰雪旅游情境中城市居民的气候变化感知、感知价值、旅游意向和环境责任行为等变量间的影响关系及其形成机制进行分析。研究发现：(1)气候变化感知分为气候变化表征和气候变化风险两个维度,且两者显著正向影响冰雪旅游感知价值。同时,气候变化风险显著正向影响旅游者环境责任行为。(2)冰雪旅游感知价值显著正向影响冰雪旅游意向和环境责任行为。(3)冰雪旅游意向显著正向影响环境责任行为。(4)旅游经历在气候变化感知对冰雪旅游意向和环境责任行为的影响关系中具有显著的正向调节作用。本研究对厘清冰雪旅游情境下气候变化感知对游客环境责任行为的复杂影响机理具有重要的理论价值,同时也能够在一定程度上为相关部门把握“后冬奥”黄金机遇,推动冰雪旅游高质量发展提供决策参考。     

气候变化和工程活动对青藏铁路沿线植被指数时空变化的影响

基于1982-2015年的GIMMS NDVI3g+及同期气候数据,利用最大值合成法获得青藏铁路沿线直接影响区和生态背景区的年内NDVI最大值、年际NDVI平均值,对其进行了趋势分析、变异分析、气候相关分析和残差分析,部分结果用MODISNDVI(2001-2018年)进行了验证.研究表明:①青藏铁路年际NDVI高度响...     

Managing climate change scenarios for societal impact studies

Dealing with the potential consequences of climate change on society requires scenarios that accurately project future climate. Uncertainties about future greenhouse gas emissions, climate sensitivity to radiative forcing, and limits to simulating a complex system constrain this objective. This paper reviews literature outlining the inherent challenges of creating future climate scenarios from general circulation models; it examines methods used to improve their interpretation and use; and it explores approaches taken to recognize and address uncertainty when investigating interactions between climate and society.     

Impact of climate change on the surface water of Kaidu River Basin

To reveal the changing trend and annual distribution of the surface water hydrology and the local climate in the Bayanbuluk alpine-cold wetlands in the past 50 years, we used temperature, precipitation, different rank precipitation days, evaporation, water vapor pressure, relative humidity, dust storm days and snow depth to analyze their temporal variations. We conclude that there were no distinct changes in annual mean temperature, and no obvious changes in the maximum or minimum temperatures. Precipitation in warm season was the main water source in the wetlands of the study area and accounted for 92.0% of the annual total. Precipitation dropped to the lowest in the mid-1980s in the past 50 years and then increased gradually. The runoff of the Kaidu River has increased since 1987 which has a good linear response to the annual precipitation and mean temperature in Bayanbuluk alpine-cold wetland. Climate change also affected ecosystems in this area due to its direct relations to the surface water environment.     

气候变化对植物多样性的影响研究综述

植物多样性是生态系统结构和功能的基础,气候变化已对其产生了深刻的影响,甚至于严重威胁.植物多样性的减少或丧失必然会影响生态系统结构和功能的稳定性,导致严重的生态、经济和社会后果.植物多样性对气候变化的响应受控于气温和水分的动态平衡.本文系统总结了气候变暖和降水格局变化对植物多样性的影响,分析了气候变化对不同生态系统、群...     

开都河流域气候变化对地表水的影响

1IntroductionWetlands, forests and oceans are the three main ecosystems with the highest ecological values in the world. According to the data of United Nations Environment Programme in 2002, the annual production value of the wetland ecosystems per hecta…     

1993-2017年气候变化对西藏谷物单产的定量影响

Climate change is a global environmental crisis, but there have been few studies of the effects of climate change on cereal yields on the Tibetan Plateau. We used data from meteorological stations and statistical yearbooks to assess the impacts of climate change on cereal yields in Tibet. Three types of statistical models were selected: fixed-effects model, first-difference models, and linear detrending models. We analyzed the impacts of climate change(including the minimum temperature, precipitation, growing degree days and solar radiation) on cereal yields in Tibet from 1993 to 2017 at the county, prefecture-level city, and autonomous region scales. The results showed that the sensitivity of cereal yields in Tibet to temperature(minimum temperature and growing degree days) was greater than their sensitivity to precipitation and solar radiation. The joint impacts of climate variables were positive, but the sensitivity and significance varied in different regions. The impacts of minimum temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation were positive in all cities, apart from the negative impacts of growing degree days on cereal yields in Lhasa. The impacts of climate trends on cereal yields in Tibet were positive and the results were in the range of 1.5%–4.8%. Among the three types of model, the fixed-effects model was the most robust and the linear detrending model performed better than the first-difference model. The robustness of the first-difference model decreased after adding the interaction terms between different climate variables. Our findings will help in implementing more spatially targeted agricultural adaptations to cope with the impacts of climate change on the agro-ecosystem of the Tibetan Plateau.     

中国南方调整水稻种植格局——一种水稻生产预先适应气候变化的选择(英文)

Rice planted in southern China accounts for 94% of the total in sown acreage and 88% of the total in production, which matters a lot to Chinese food security. However, due to the prolonged conflict between water availability and rice growth in spatial/temporal distribu-tion, rice production suffers from seasonal drought at acreage of 16%-22%, which compro-mises food production capacity and food security. Focusing on the spatial distribution of seasonal drought with rice and the practices to adapt to it, and based on an analysis of bal-anced water supply for and demand by rice at a growing season scale during 1981-2030, this paper assesses the changing seasonal drought in the process of rice production under the changing climate in the future, and identifies general rice re-cultivation options for climate change adaptation. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) Rice suggests a decline in seasonal drought, with early season rice (early rice hereafter) by 12,500 km2, middle season rice (middle rice) by 80,000 km2, and in particular late season rice (late rice) by 25,000 km2, which accounts for almost 20% of its cultivated acreage. It is indicated that due to climate change, seasonal drought in major rice producing areas tends to alleviate in general, late season rice in particular. (2) Future climate change brings about a significant impact on the spatial/temporal distribution of water resources in rice producing areas in China. Based on ’pre-designed’ adaptation actions for rice-re-cultivation, the rice cultivation pattern undergoes a significant alteration between 1981-2000 and 2001-2030. In eastern Guizhou and western Hunan, the pattern of single early plus single dry farming is changed into double cropping. In eastern Hunan, the pattern of dry cropping is changed into single early plus single dry farming. In northern Anhui, the pattern of dry farming cropping is changed into middle rice. All this is aimed at a potential adequate availability of water for rice production in the future. (3) Rice re-cultivation patterns developed in this paper help re-balance water demand and supply for rice growth using the spatial analysis tool to adapt rice growth to the changing water avail-ability from spatial perspective, and come up with rice producer-friendly re-cultivation options in response to climate change.     

Impact of Holocene climate change on the prehistoric cultures of Zhejiang region,East China

The temporal-spatial distribution features of prehistoric cultures since the Holocene in Zhejiang region were comparatively analyzed based on GIS spatial analysis. Results show that the prehistoric cultures expanded gradually in this region before 4000 cal. a BP. The notable expansions occurred twice, one in the Majiabang-Hemudu cultural period, the other in the Liangzhu cultural period. Meanwhile, the prehistoric cultures were disseminated from west to east coast along river valleys. After 4000 cal. a BP, as represented by the Maqiao Culture, the distributed area of each prehistoric culture contracted. This is obviously due to the termination of spreading trends to east coast, which was simultaneously accompanied by two different modes of production and economic transitions in the north and south Zhejiang region respectively. The distribution of prehistoric cultures was closely related with Holocene sea-level fluctuations, especially on the banks of Hangzhou Bay, where the distribution changes of prehistoric cultural sites were greatly affected by sea-level changes, with the closest relationships between them. After 7000 cal. a BP, the process of lowered sea-level and regression-epeirogenesis provided wider terrestrial living spaces for prehistoric inhabitants. Based on the comparative analyses of the changes of prehistoric cultures and the environmental evolution information recorded in the Qianmutian subalpine peat of Mt. Tianmu and muddy area on the inner shelf of the East China Sea, it is indicated that the changes of prehistoric cultures were synchronized with environmental changes in Zhejiang region. Before 4000 cal. a BP, the eastward expansion of prehistoric cultures in Zhejiang occurred under the background of the Holocene Optimum, and was the expansion and extension under the joint influences of agricultural civilization and maritime civilization. However, after 4000 cal. a BP, the geographical contraction of prehistoric cultures in Zhejiang occurred under the background of dry-cold climate trend and deterioration of coastal marine environment. It is evidenced from the above fact that the development, expansion and contraction of prehistoric cultures are positively correlated to environmental change. The change of the climatic environment is just the underlying reason for these changes and transitions of production modes and economic forms. Therefore, the climatic environment is the dominant factor of prehistoric culture vicissitudes in Zhejiang region, which has exerted great influence on distribution, dissemination, expansion and transmutation of the culture.     

Climate change effects at your doorstep: Geographic visualization to support Nordic homeowners in adapting to climate change

The complexity of climate information, particularly as related to climate scenarios, impacts, and action alternatives, poses significant challenges for science communication. This study presents a geographic visualization approach involving lay audiences to address these challenges. VisAdapt™ is a web-based visualization tool designed to improve Nordic homeowners’ understanding of climate change vulnerability and to support their adaptive actions. VisAdapt is structured to enable individual users to explore several climate change impact parameters, including temperature and precipitation, for their locations and to find information on specific adaptation measures for their house types and locations. The process of testing the tool included a focus group study with homeowners in Norway, Denmark, and Sweden to assess key challenges in geographic visualization, such as the level of interactivity and information. The paper concludes that geographic visualization tools can support homeowners’ climate adaptation processes, but that certain features, such as downscaled climate information are a key element expected by users. Although the assessment of interactivity and data varied both across countries and user experience, a general conclusion is that a geographic visualization tool, like VisAdapt, can make climate change effects and adaptation alternatives tangible and initiate discussions and collaborative reflections.