Relative impacts of worldwide tropospheric ozone changes and regional emission modifications on European surface-ozone levels

Multi-scale models were applied to assess the surface ozone changes in 2030. Several emission scenarios are considered, ranging from (a) a pessimistic anthropogenic emission increase to (b) an optimistic decrease of emissions, and including (c) a realistic scenario that assumes the implementation of control legislations [CLE]. The two extreme scenarios lead respectively to homogeneous global increase and decrease of surface ozone, whereas low and inhomogeneous changes associated with a slight global increase of ozone are found for the CLE scenario. Over western Europe, for the CLE scenario, the benefit of European emission reduction is significantly counterbalanced by increasing global ozone levels. Considering warmer conditions over Europe and future emission modifications, the human health exposure to surface ozone is found to be significantly worsened.     

Modelling climate-change impacts on groundwater recharge in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

A methodology is presented for assessing the average changes in groundwater recharge under a future climate. The method is applied to the 1,060,000 km² Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in Australia. Climate sequences were developed based upon three scenarios for a 2030 climate relative to a 1990 climate from the outputs of 15 global climate models. Dryland diffuse groundwater recharge was modelled in WAVES using these 45 climate scenarios and fitted to a Pearson Type III probability distribution to condense the 45 scenarios down to three: a wet future, a median future and a dry future. The use of a probability distribution allowed the significance of any change in recharge to be assessed. This study found that for the median future, climate recharge is projected to increase on average by 5% across the MDB but this is not spatially uniform. In the wet and dry future scenarios the recharge is projected to increase by 32% and decrease by 12% on average across the MDB, respectively. The differences between the climate sequences generated by the 15 different global climate models makes it difficult to project the direction of the change in recharge for a 2030 climate, let alone the magnitude.     

Nested regional climate–chemistry simulations for central Europe

The potential impact of global climate change on regional meteorology and near-surface ozone concentrations in central Europe and the effect of model resolution on the simulated quantities were studied using a coupled climate–chemistry model. Nested simulations with a horizontal resolution of 60 km for Europe and 20 km for central Europe were performed for two time slices of about 10 years representing present-day and future climate conditions. The model results indicate that increased solar radiation due to decreased cloud cover, higher temperatures, and enhanced isoprene emissions promote the formation of tropospheric ozone in central Europe under future climate conditions. Depending on the region, the increase of the mean daily maximum ranges between 2 and 10 ppb and exceedances of the threshold of 60 ppb for the 8-hourly mean as well as the AOT40 index were found to increase considerably. General tendencies in the regional distributions of near-surface ozone were similar for 60- and 20-km resolutions. However, pronounced regional differences were found for some regions due to stronger smoothing of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions as well as flattened topography for the 60-km resolution.     

Impact of climate change on rainfed rice and options for adaptation in the lower Mekong Basin

We assessed the potential impact of climate change on the yield of rainfed rice in the lower Mekong Basin and evaluated some adaptation options, using a crop growth simulation model. Future climate projections are based on IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios as simulated by ECHAM4 global climate model downscaled for the Mekong Basin using the PRECIS system. We divided the basin into 14 agro-climatic zones and selected a sub-catchment within each zone for the model and assessed the impact for the period of 2010–2030 and 2030–2050. In general, the results suggest that yield of rainfed rice may increase significantly in the upper part of the basin in Laos and Thailand and may decrease in the lower part of the basin in Cambodia and Vietnam. The increase is higher during 2030–2050 compared to the period of 2010–2030 for A2 scenario. For B2 scenario, yield increase is higher during 2010–2030. The impact is mainly due to the change in rainfall and CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere. We have tested widely used adaptation options such as changing planting date, supplementary irrigation, and reduction in fertility stress and found that negative impact on yield can be offset and net increase in yield can be achieved.     

Energy demand and economic consequences of transport policy

Transport sector is a major consumer of energy. Concern of energy scarcity and price fluctuations enhanced significance of transport sector in national planning. This paper analyses energy demand for transport services in Bangladesh for different policy scenarios. Aggregate transport demand model is integrated into Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning model to forecast consequences of transport policy on energy demand and economy. Demand for imported energy for transport sector is observed to increase from 1.7 million ton of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2005 to 11.8 Mtoe in 2030 for business-as-usual scenario. In increased fuel price scenario, cost of importing fuel for transport sector is projected to increase from 1.37 to more than 14.9 % of Gross Domestic Product during the same period. Country’s energy demand may be reduced by 2 and 4 Mtoe in 2030 by improvement of waterway and railway, respectively. Moreover, by using compressed natural gas in motor vehicles cost of importing fuel may be reduced by US $5 billion annually in 2030 and a further reduction of transport sector energy demand by 9 % can be achieved through eliminating subsidy on fuel.     

气候变化情景下青藏高原多年冻土活动层厚度变化预测

在人类活动和气候变暖的共同影响下, 浅层多年冻土近地表和活动层的热状况会发生显著的变化, 从而对生态环境、 水文、 工程等产生较大的影响. 以A1B, A2, B1气候变化情景模式为基础, 运用Stefan公式计算和预测了青藏高原多年冻土区活动层厚度的变化特征. 结果表明: 以羌塘盆地为中心, 青藏高原多年冻土活动层厚度向其四周不断增加, 多年冻土活动层厚度随着气温升高而增加. A1B 、 A2模式下活动层厚度变化大, 相对人类活动强度较小的B1模式活动层厚度变化较小. 到2050年时, A1B情景活动层厚度平均约为3.07 m, 相对于2010年活动层厚度约增加0.3~0.8 m; B1情景活动层厚度增加0.2~0.5 m; A2情景增加0.2~0.55 m. 到2099年, A1B情景活动层的平均厚度将约为3.42 m; A2情景将可达3.53 m; B1情景将可达2.93 m. 气候变暖将可能加深活动层, 百年后将大范围改变多年冻土的空间分布.     

Impact assessment of projected climate change on the hydrological regime in the SE Alps, Upper Soča River basin, Slovenia

According to climate change projections, the Alps will be one of the most affected regions in Europe. A basis for adaptation measures to climate changes is the quantification of the impact. This study investigates the impact of projected climate change on the hydrological cycle in the Upper So?a River basin. It is based on the use of climate model data as input for hydrological modelling. The climatic input data used were generated by a global climate model (IPCC A1B emission scenario) and downscaled for local use. Hydrological modelling was performed using the distributed hydrological model MIKE SHE. The simulated impact was quantified by comparing results of the hydrological modelling for the control period (1971–2000) and different scenario periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100). The climate projections show an increase in the average temperature (+0.9, +2.3, +3.8°C) and negligible changes in average precipitation amounts in the scenario periods. More distinctive are changes in the temporal pattern of mean monthly values (up to +5.2°C and ±45% for precipitation), which result in warmer and wetter winters and hotter and drier summers in the scenario periods. The projected rise in temperature is reflected in the increased actual evapotranspiration, the reduction of snow amount and summer groundwater recharge. Changes of monthly and period average discharges follow the trends of the meteorological variables. Changes in precipitation patterns have a major influence on the projected hydrological cycle and are the most important source of uncertainty. Estimated extreme flows indicated increased hazards related to floods, especially in the near-future scenario period, while in the far future scenario period, distinctive drought conditions are projected.     

未来气候情景下长江上游区域积雪时空变化分析——基于CMIP5多模式集合数据

基于21个CMIP5全球气候模式集合数据,耦合VIC模型,预估了未来30年（2011-2040年）RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5 三个情景下长江上游区域积雪的时空变化。结果表明:与基准期1970-1999年相比,长江上游区域未来30年的多年平均气温和各月平均气温都将升高1~2℃,其中冬季和春季升温较大;平均年降水量将增加3%~4%,但秋、冬季降水有所减小。未来30年平均积雪深相对于基准期将减小37.8%左右,在积雪过程中达到最大积雪深的时间与基准期基本相同,而融雪开始的时间略有延后;从空间变化来看,冬季（1月份）长江上游区域大部分地区的积雪深都呈现减小趋势,部分地区积雪深减小超过了50%。     

Global patterns of dissolved inorganic and particulate nitrogen inputs to coastal systems: Recent conditions and future projections

We examine the global distribution of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and particulate nitrogen (PN) export to coastal systems and the effect of human activities and natural processes on that export. The analysis is based on DIN and PN models that were combined with spatially explicit global databases. The model results indicate the widely uneven geographic distribution of human activities and rates of nitrogen input to coastal systems at the watershed, latitudinal, and regional-continental scales. Future projections in a business-as-usual scenario indicate that DIN export rates increase from approximately 21 Tg N yr⁻¹ in 1990 to 47 Tg N yr⁻¹ by 2050. Increased DIN inputs to coastal systems in most world regions are predicted by 2050. The largest increases are predicted for Southern and Eastern Asia, associated with predicted large increases in population, increased fertilizer use to grow food to meet the dietary demands of that population, and increased industrialization. Results of an alternative scenario for North America and Europe in 2050 indicate that reductions in the human consumption of animal protein could reduce fertilizer use and result in substantial decreases in DIN export rates by rivers. In another scenario for 2050, future air pollution control in Europe that would reduce atmospheric deposition of nitrogen oxides in watersheds is predicted to decrease DIN export by rivers, particularly from Baltic and North Atlantic watersheds. Results of a newly developed global PN river export model indicate that total global PN and DIN export by rivers in 1990 are similar, even though the global distribution of the two differ considerably.     

Future ozone in a changing climate

The stratospheric ozone layer is expected to recover as a result of the regulations of the Montreal Protocol on chlorine and bromine containing ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Model simulations project a return of global annually averaged total column ozone to 1980 levels before the middle of the 21^st century, well before the ODSs will return to 1980 levels. This earlier ozone return date is due to the effects of rising greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. GHGs influence ozone directly by chemical reactions, but also indirectly by changing stratospheric temperature and the Brewer–Dobson circulation. Based on projections of chemistry–climate models, this article summarizes the effects of GHGs on stratospheric and total column ozone in the mid-latitude upper stratosphere, Arctic and Antarctic spring, and the tropics. The sensitivity of future ozone change to the GHG scenario is discussed, as well as the specific role of a future increase in nitrous oxide and methane.     

Assessing water erosion in Mediterranean tree crops using GIS techniques and field measurements: the effect of climate change

In this work, a dynamic GIS modeling approach is presented that incorporates: a) geoinformatic techniques, b) 55-year historical meteorological data, and c) field measurements, in order to estimate soil erosion risk in intensively cultivated regions. The proposed GIS-based modeling approach includes the estimation of soil erosion rates due to surface water flow under current and future climate change scenarios A2 and B1 for the years 2030 and 2050. The soil erosion was estimated using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). The proposed soil erosion model was validated using field measurements at different sites of the study area. The results show that an extended part of the study area is under intense erosion with the mean annual loss to be 4.85 t/ha year⁻¹. Moreover, an increase in rainfall intensity, especially for scenario B1, can generate a significant increase (32.44 %) in soil loss for the year 2030 and a much more (50.77 %) for the year 2050 in comparison with the current conditions. Regarding the scenario A2, a slight decrease (1.85 %) in soil loss was observed for the year 2030, while for 2050 the results show an adequate increase (7.31 %) in comparison with the present. All these approaches were implemented at one of the most productive agricultural areas of Crete in Greece dominated by olive and citrus crops.

     

Response of streamflow to projected climate change scenarios in an eastern Himalayan catchment of India

Snowmelt run-off model (SRM) based on degree-day approach has been employed to evaluate the change in snow-cover depletion and corresponding streamflow under different projected climatic scenarios for an eastern Himalayan catchment in India. Nuranang catchment located at Tawang district of Arunachal Pradesh with an area of 52 km² is selected for the present study with an elevation range of 3143–4946 m above mean sea level. Satellite images from October to June of the selected hydrological year 2006–2007 were procured from National Remote Sensing Centre, Hyderabad. Snow cover mapping is done using NDSI method. Based on long term meteorological data, temperature and precipitation data of selected hydrological year are normalized to represent present climatic condition. The projected temperature and precipitation data are downloaded from NCAR’s GIS data portal for different emission scenarios (SRES), viz., A1B, A2, B1; and IPCC commitment (non-SRES) scenario for different future years (2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050). Projected temperature and precipitation data are obtained at desired location by spatially interpolating the gridded data and then by statistical downscaling using linear regression. Snow depletion curves for all projected scenarios are generated for the study area and compared with conventional depletion curve for present climatic condition. Changes in cumulative snowmelt depth for different future years are highest under A1B and lowest under IPCC commitment, whereas A2 and B1 values are in-between A1B and IPCC commitment. Percentage increase in streamflow for different future years follows almost the same trend as change in precipitation from present climate under all projected climatic scenarios. Hence, it was concluded that for small catchments having seasonal snow cover, the total streamflow under projected climatic scenarios in future years will be primarily governed by the change in precipitation and not by change in snowmelt depth. Advancing of depletion curves for different future years are highest under A1B and lowest under IPCC commitment. A2 and B1 values are in-between A1B and IPCC commitment.     

Catastrophic implications of global climatic change in the cold regions of Eurasia

Records of near-ground temperatures from 1860 to the present show an increase of temperature of about 0.45 ± 0.15 °C. Some models predict that annual air temperatures in the Eurasian cold regions could increase by 3 to 6 °C in the years 2020 to 2030. The magnitude of such changes in Arctic climate would produce serious and far reaching environmental problems in Eurasian cold regions underlain by permafrost. In this paper the author tries to evaluate the probable catastrophic implications of global climatic change in the cold regions of Eurasia.     

Impacts of climate change on the hydro-climatology of the upper Ishikari river basin,Japan

Evidence for climate change impacts on the hydro-climatology of Japan is plentiful. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the impacts of possible future climate change scenarios on the hydro-climatology of the upper Ishikari River basin, Hokkaido, Japan. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was set up, calibrated, and validated for the hydrological modeling of the study area. The Statistical DownScaling Model version 4.2 was used to downscale the large-scale Hadley Centre Climate Model 3 Global Circulation Model A2 and B2 scenarios data into finer scale resolution. After model calibration and testing of the downscaling procedure, the SDSM-downscaled climate outputs were used as an input to run the calibrated SWAT model for the three future periods: 2030s (2020–2039), 2060s (2050–2069), and 2090s (2080–2099). The period 1981–2000 was taken as the baseline period against which comparison was made. Results showed that the average annual maximum temperature might increase by 1.80 and 2.01, 3.41 and 3.12, and 5.69 and 3.76 °C, the average annual minimum temperature might increase by 1.41 and 1.49, 2.60 and 2.34, and 4.20 and 2.93 °C, and the average annual precipitation might decrease by 5.78 and 8.08, 10.18 and 12.89, and 17.92 and 11.23% in 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s for A2a and B2a emission scenarios, respectively. The annual mean streamflow may increase for the all three future periods except the 2090s under the A2a scenario. Among them, the largest increase is possibly observed in the 2030s for A2a scenario, up to approximately 7.56%. Uncertainties were found within the GCM, the downscaling method, and the hydrological model itself, which were probably enlarged because only one single GCM (HaDCM3) was used in this study.     

气候变化对黄河源区水资源的影响

利用气候模型结果和大尺度分布式水文模型评估黄河源区未来的水资源.根据IPCC DDC的13个系列的GCMs成果,结合黄河源区的实测气象资料,分析了该地区气候在未来100 a内的可能变化;建立了考虑融雪和冻土影响的分布式水文模型,经验证该模型能够适用于黄河源区.计算出了相应的径流情景,分析了黄河源区水量尤其是水资源特性(径流的年内、年际分布)的可能变化;对南水北调西线工程的需水量进行了简单评估.     

气候变化情景下北江飞来峡水库极端入库洪水预估

以北江飞来峡水库上游为研究对象,构建了网格分辨率为0.25°×0.25°的VIC(Variable Infiltration Capacity)水文模型,应用CMIP5多模式输出的降尺度结果与VIC模型耦合,对RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下未来时期(2020-2050年)飞来峡水库的入库洪水进行预估,并根据IPCC第5次评估报告处理和表达不确定性的方法来描述预估结论的可信度。结果表明,2020-2050年飞来峡水库年最大洪峰流量和年最大7日、15日洪量在RCP2.6情景下"大约可能"呈增加趋势,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下"较为可能"呈增加趋势,水库防洪安全风险增大。与历史时期(1970-2000年)相比,未来水库极端入库洪水增加的可能性从大到小依次为RCP4.5、RCP2.6和RCP8.5情景,其中设计洪水100年、50年和20年一遇的洪峰流量在3种排放情景下均呈上升趋势,100年、50年和20年一遇的最大7日、15日洪量在RCP4.5情景下以上升为主,而在RCP2.6和RCP8.5情景下则主要呈减少态势。     

Schumann Resonance and Sunspot Relations to Human Health Effects in Thailand

There is sensible scientific evidence to establish a trailof connection from the sun activity to human biological and health effects. This explains whysunspot numbers and indices of Geomagnetic Activity are correlated with serious human healtheffects in a large body of published studies. The key element is the role of the SchumannResonance signal that is detected by human brains and is used to synchronize diurnal andELF brain rhythms. The Schumann Resonance signal intensity is modulated and highlycorrelated with solar activity and the electron concentrations in the lowest layersof the ionosphere. The enhanced or weakened solar activity moves the level of the SRsignal outside the normal homeostatic range and, through the Melatonin mechanism, causeshealth problems and enhanced death rates in large human populations. A five-yearmonthly data-base is used to confirm the correlation between the climatic factors ofSunspot Number, Southern Oscillation Index and Global mean temperatureanomalies with the SR signal strength. The Sunspot Number emerges as the strongestfactor. A 19 year data-set of annual mortality rates in SE Asia is used to seek evidenceof correlations between human mortality rates and the sunspot number in order to supportand confirm the SR hypothesis. A wide range of mortalities that are associatedwith Melatonin reduction, are found to be significantly correlated with sunspot number,including cancer, cardiac and neurological mortality.     

气候变化情景下渭河流域潜在蒸散量时空变化特征

根据渭河流域20个气象站1959～ 2008年逐日气象资料,以FAO Penman-Monteith法计算的各站逐日潜在蒸散量作为标准值,对基于气温的Hargreaves法进行参数校正以使其适用于渭河流域.应用统计降尺度模型SDSM将HadCM3输出数据降尺度到各站点,生成A2,B2两种情景下各站未来日最高、最低气温数...     

Choosing the best ancient analogue for projected future temperatures: A case using data from fluid inclusions of middle-late Eocene halites

After the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), global temperature and CO₂ levels decreased concurrently in the middle-late Eocene. Using different approaches, estimated CO₂ levels of the middle-late Eocene are very similar to the 1000 ppm CO₂ level projected for the next 100 years. As a result of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the average global temperature is projected to increase from 1.4 to 5.8 °C by 2100 relative to 2001 levels. Thus, the middle-late Eocene may be the best ancient analogue for a future with increased temperatures due to burning of fossil fuels.In order to explore the sensitivity range of global annual temperature with respect to CO₂ concentration, exact atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and air temperatures of ancient analogs must be known. Previous palynological studies provide only indirect estimates of temperature; however, the homogenization temperature of fluid inclusions in halites, obtained by the ‘cooling nucleation’ method, can provide the exact temperature of saline lake water, which is similar to overlying air temperature in shallow lakes. In this paper, we measured the range of homogenization temperatures (from 5.8 to 43.3 °C) of fluid inclusions in middle-late Eocene halites of the Yunying depression, central China. The maximum homogenization temperature of fluid inclusions (Th_max) in these middle-late Eocene halites is 4.6 °C higher than the modern extreme highest temperature (38.7 °C) recorded for this area.     

Predicting solar radiation fluxes for solar energy system applications

The mean daily global solar radiation flux is influenced by astronomical, climatological, geographical, geometrical, meteorological, and physical parameters. This paper deals with the study of the effects of influencing parameters on the mean daily global solar radiation flux, and also with the computation of the solar radiation flux at the surface of the earth in locations without solar radiation measurements. The reference–real data were borrowed from the Iranian Meteorological Organization. The analysis of data showed that the mean daily solar radiation flux on a horizontal surface is related to parameters such as: mean daily extraterrestrial solar radiation, average daily ratio of sunshine duration, mean daily relative humidity, mean daily maximum air temperature, mean daily maximum dew point temperature, mean daily atmospheric pressure, and sine of the solar declination angle. Multiple regression and correlation analysis were applied to predict the mean daily global solar radiation flux on a horizontal surface. The models were validated when compared with the reference–measured data of global solar radiation flux. The results showed that the models estimate the global solar radiation flux within a narrow relative error band. The values of mean bias errors and root mean square errors were within acceptable margins. The predicted values of global solar radiation flux by this approach can be used for the design and performance estimation in solar applications. The model can be used in areas where meteorological stations do not exist and information on solar radiation flux cannot be obtained experimentally.