中国大陆浅源强震分布与地球自转速率变化的关系

考查了1900～2001年中国大陆不同活动地块浅源强震分布与地球自转速率变化的关系,并讨论将其应用在地震趋势预测中的问题。研究结果表明,大陆西部的天山、祁连一柴达木、羌塘一拉萨及川滇地块的强震活动(Ms≥7．0)和大陆东部的中朝一鲁东黄海地块和华南地块东边界(东南沿海地震带)东半段中的强震活动(Ms≥6．0),大多数(70％以上)发生在地球自转加快的年份中;大陆西部滇东一滇西地块的强震活动(Ms≥7．0),以及大陆东部中蒙一华北平原地块和华南地块东边界(东南沿海地震带)的西半段强震活动(Ms≥6．0),大多数(67％以上)发生在地球自转减慢的年份中。并且讨论了地球自转速率变化在地震预报中可能作用的R值评分。     

太阳黑子活动及地球自转对江苏及邻区地震的影响分析

根据太阳黑子活动和地球自转数据,分析了两者对江苏及邻区中强地震的影响.结果显示:太阳黑子活动下降段及地球自转加速度上升和转折段有利于该地区中强地震的发生;且在太阳黑子活动的下降时间内,每一个地球自转加速度的转折都会使得该地区中小地震频度增高:另外,从幅相法统计以及太阳黑子活动预测数据来看,2012年2月以后江苏及邻区的...     

太阳活动与华北强震关系的分析

统计了太阳黑子活动11年周期和22年周期与华北地区(E108°～124°,N34°～42°)1815年～2002年187年6级以上强震的关系。结果显示,它们之间存在着较好的对应关系,华北地区的强震自1815年第4高潮以来,有84.6%的强震集中在太阳黑子11年变化周期的峰年段(±1年)和谷年段(±1年)内发生;其中尤以双周峰年段、单周谷年段较为集中;而单周下降时段却从未有过强震发生。目前正处于太阳黑子活动第23周单周峰年之后的下降时段,该统计区内强震发生的概率极低。     

制约和影响中国大陆地震活动大形势的动力因素研究

从地球动力学角度,研究制约和影响我国大陆地震活动的兴衰起伏的内在原因,揭示我国大陆地震活动期（３００年）、幕（２０年左右）、段（几年）实际是由于太阳黑子活动、地球自转速率变化、全球强震活动水平在不同阶段迭加和组合的结果。     

全球强震与地球自转角加速度变化过程关系统计研究

统计分析了1962—2017年全球强震活动与地球自转角加速度变化过程的关系, 结果显示, 全球8级以上地震发生在地球自转角加速度下降期的概率相对自然概率高出12%, 达到64%, 统计结果具有显著性, 但7.5级和7.8级以上地震的统计结果没有显著性。 分区统计结果表明, 全球强震活动具有明显的区域性特征: 在地球自转角加速度上升期, 高于自然概率的强震主要分布在阿尔卑斯带中西段、 环太平洋地震带的琉球—菲律宾地区以及中国东部; 在地球自转角加速度下降期, 高于自然概率的强震主要分布在环太平洋地震带、 阿尔卑斯带中段(喜马拉雅弧)、 阿尔卑斯带东段(印尼岛弧海沟)以及中亚大陆地区。 分析认为地球自转角加速度变化过程与全球区域地震活动之间存在较强的相关性, 可能与地球自转角加速度变化引起板块间相互作用的强弱有关。     

华南强震动力分析

根据华南陆缘扩张的动力来源和现代构造运动特征及强震震源断层最新活动性质,通过对华南地震活动与地球自转速率变化、GPS观测基线变化、理论面应变的关系分析,认为地幔流向洋侧的蠕散是造成华南现今地壳变形和张剪性构造运动为主的原因,而区域地球的波动膨胀拉张是引发强震的动力。     

近200年来全球地震活动与月相及地球自公转的关系分析

对1811-2008年近200年来全球地震活动与月相、日地距离、地球自转速度这三个天文因素的统计分析表明,月相不论与全球地震还是全球大地震之间似乎无统计关系,全球地震的发生与日地距离似乎无统计关系。本文还进一步对全球M≥7．5的大地震进行了统计,结果表明M≥7．5的大地震与地球处于近日点似乎有一定的关系,但关系不太明显。全球除了8．0〉M≥7．0的地震基本上符合发震的自然概率外,在M≥9．0、9．0〉M≥8．0、6．0〉M≥5．0、4．0〉M≥3．0这些震级段地震发生的机率在地球自转减速期比较小,在地球自转加速期发生的机率比较大,似乎地球自转速度的变化对全球地震活动有一定的促发作用,但不明显。     

太阳黑子、地球自转与华北地区中强震关系研究

运用Morlet小波分解方法检验太阳黑子相对数变化的显著周期,并分析太阳黑子数活动的趋势。运用太阳黑子和地球自转数据分析两者对华北地区中强地震的影响。结果显示,太阳黑子相对数变化、地球自转速率变化与华北地区中强地震活动水平存在较好的对应关系。当太阳黑子相对数周期上升段与地球日长数据Demy小波三阶分解的18.6年周期波谷段叠加时,对华北地震活动的影响达到最大,存在触发区域内中强地震发生的可能。     

日食、太阳黑子与地球自转对Ei Nio(La Nia)影响与预测

Ei Nio(La Nia)对全球气候变化产生显著影响并造成严重自然灾害,其形成与发生受多因素复杂影响.对其影响因素与事件发生预测的研究,有助于对其成因机制加深理解,减弱其造成的灾害影响.本文运用经验模态分解法(EMD)与动力力学预测模型等数学方法,对近60年地球自转、日食、太阳黑子等因素与Ei Nio(La Nia)事件相关性进行多尺度分析,探讨日食对Ei Nio(La Nia)热动力诱因,构建日食、太阳黑子、地球自转与Ei Nio(La Nia)事件间相关系数与预测定理(E1-E2),并对未来10年Ei Nio(La Nia)事件进行预测.研究结果表明:日食、太阳黑子、地球自转等现象与Ei Nio、La Nia事件具有密切相关性,是其发生重要影响因素.日食发生对Ei Nio(La Nia)事件具有热动力诱因,太阳黑子峰值年与Ei Nio事件发生有较好关联性,地球自转速率增加,诱发或增强La Nia事件,地球自转速率降低时,诱发或增强Ei Nio事件.通过构建日食、太阳黑子、地球自转与Ei Nio(La Nia)事件间相关系数与预测定理(E1-E2)进行Ei Nio(La Nia)事件的资料验证与预测,准确率达86.05%,得到预测结论:2016、2018、2019、2020、2023年发生Ei Nio事件,2017、2021、2024年发生La Nia事件.     

地球自转速度变化在地震预报中的地位初探

本文计算了地球自转速度季节性变化与全球强震季节性频度曲线的相关性,相关系数与震级有关,並发现强震频度的纬度分布与离心力大小有关,从而可能找到地球自转触发地震的某些依据。並用地下水异常、激光锁相应变仪测到的地震前兆,分析了地球自转短周期与地震的关系。     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Aims And Scope

正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and     

Foreword

Destructive earthquakes have caused great damage in China and the United States and collapsing buildings havecaused many deaths and injuries. The field of earthquake engineering studies earthquake hazards, the occurrence ofearthquakes of various magnitudes, the nature of the ground shaking during an earthquake, the vibration of structuresduring earthquakes, the strengthening of existing structures and the design of new structures to be earthquake resistant,and finally, how to cope with earthquake damage and restore a city to normal functioning. Such efforts are in progressin both countries, but unfortunately, the language barrier interferes with the free flow of information between China andthe Untied States. It would be mutually beneficial if some means could be developed to promote the exchangeof information across the Pacific Ocean. This new journal has been established for this purpose and its success willbe an important step in promoting earthquake engineering in China and the United States.     

WORLD ASSOCIATION FOR SEDIMENTATION AND EROSION RESEARCH(WASER)

正President:Giampaolo Di Silvio,Italy Vice Presidents:Ulrich C.E.Zanke,Germany Zhao-yin Wang,China The World Association for Sedimentation and Erosion Research(WASER),inaugurated on Oct.19,2004,is an independent non-governmental,non-profit organization.The mission of WASER is to promote international co-operation on the study     

Enhancing remote sensing research on global change to improve our understanding on Earth system processes

正Global Change includes climate change and other environmental changes caused by the joint interaction among various layers of Earth. From the positive side, global change provides new opportunities to human and other living forms on Earth. In the meantime, it creates tremendous challenges and negative impact. At present, the negative impacts have reached all primary processes of the global ecosystem and every aspect of human society, especially causing degradation of the ecosystem. For instance, intensive deforestation causes decline of biodiversity; global warming causes sea level rise and increases     

Solute concentrations in the lower niger river and the source rock contribution

Water quality analyses for the Niger River for the 1980/81 hydrological year are presented. The samples were collected from the main river at Lokoja, and from two main tributaries, the Kaduna and the Benue Rivers. Different water types were distinguished by the concentrations of major ions. The type Ca > Na > Mg > K - HCO₃ > SO₄ > Cl was represented at all stations during at least part of the year. Chloride was found to dominate the sulphate ion in the Kaduna and Niger, while the Benue maintained a higher concentration of sulphate relative to chloride all year round. Distinct patterns of seasonal variation in the ion concentrations were observed, particularly for the samples collected at Lokoja. Low ion concentrations were prominent during periods of high discharge, while low flow periods coincided with high dissolved ion concentrations. The contribution of rainwater to the total dissolved solids in the river waters was assessed indirectly using rainwater chemistry data from the Gulf of Guinea. The estimated rainwater contribution to the Lower Niger amounts to 5.15 mg 1^?1. Geochemical weathering calculations involving reactions of the four major minerals of granitic rocks - anorthite, biotite, albite, and K-feldspar - with carbon dioxide and water, can account for the average water composition of the Lower Niger. The proportion of the ionic components was also related to the occurrence of the respective element in the minerals.