Deflecting NEOs in Route of Collision with the Earth

We consider a small sample of known near Earth objects (NEOs), both asteroids and comets, with low minimum orbital intersection distance (MOID). Through a simple numerical procedure we generate slightly different orbits from this sample in such a way that these bodies will collide with the Earth at a specific epoch. Then we study the required change in orbital velocity (along track Δv) in order to deflect these NEOs at different epochs before the impact event. The orbital evolution of these NEOs is performed through a full N-body numerical integrator. A comparison with analytical estimates is also performed in selected cases. Interesting features in the Δv/time before impact plots are found; as a prominent result, we find that close approaches to the Earth before the epoch of the impact can make the overall deflection easier.     

Confirmation of Cometary Features of Newly Discovered Bodies

The majority of new ground-based discoveries of comets comes from large surveys devoted, predominantly, to Near Earth Asteroids. The first step in distinguishing these newly discovered members of the population of cometary bodies consists inconfirmatory astrometric observations along with detection of their cometaryfeatures. Although both amateur and professional stations take part in suchconfirmatory observations, only some of them do a preliminary analysis of thecometary activity of a particular newly discovered body. A timely recognitionof cometary features of a particular body having an unusual orbit can help inplanning further observing campaigns.A main goals of the Klet Observatory NEO astrometric follow-upprogramme consists of an analysis of possible cometary activity of newlydiscovered unusual bodies. Here, we describe several examples (comets C/1999 S4 (LINEAR) and so on). We also mention an extension of our programme to fainterobjects after the completion ofa new 1-m telescope at the Klet Observatory.     

Prospects for meteor shower activity in the venusian atmosphere

We investigate the possibility of detectable meteor shower activity in the atmosphere of Venus. We compare the Venus-approaching population of known periodic comets, suspected cometary asteroids and meteor streams with that of the Earth. We find that a similar number of Halley-type comets but a substantially lesser population of Jupiter family comets approach Venus. Parent bodies of prominent meteor showers that might occur at Venus have been determined based on minimum orbital distance. These are: Comets 1P/Halley, parent of the η Aquarid and Orionid streams at the Earth; 45P/Honda-Mrkos-Pajdusakova which currently approaches the venusian orbit to 0.0016 AU; three Halley-type comets (12P/Pons-Brooks, 27P/Crommelin and 122P/de Vico), all intercepting the planet's orbit within a 5-day arc in solar longitude; and Asteroid (3200) Phaethon, parent of the December Geminids at the Earth. In addition, several minor streams and a number of cometary asteroid orbits are found to approach the orbit of Venus sufficiently close to raise the possibility of some activity at that planet. Using an analytical approach described in Adolfsson et al. (Icarus 119 (1996) 144) we show that venusian meteors would be as bright or up to 2 magnitudes brighter than their Earth counterparts and reach maximum luminosity at an altitude range of 100-120, 20-30 km higher than at the Earth, in a predominantly clear region of the atmosphere. We discuss the feasibility of observing venusian showers based on current capabilities and conclude that a downward-looking Venus-orbiting meteor detector would be more suitable for these purposes than Earth-based monitoring. The former would detect a shower of an equivalent Zenithal Hourly Rate of at least several tens of meteors.     

Periodic variation of Oort Cloud flux and cometary impacts on the Earth and Jupiter

Time variation in impact probability is studied by assuming that the periodic flux of the Oort Cloud comets within 15 au arises from the motion of the Sun with respect to the Galactic mid-plane. The periodic flux clearly shows up in the impact rate of the captured Oort Cloud cometary population, with a phase shift caused by the orbital evolution. Depending on the assumed flux of comets and the size distribution of comets, the impact rate of the Oort Cloud comets of 1 km in diameter or greater is from 5 to 700 impacts Myr⁻¹ on the Earth and from 0.5 to 70 impacts per 1000 yr on Jupiter. The relative fractions of impacts are 0.09, 0.11, 0.26 and 0.54 for long-period comets, Halley type comets, Jupiter family comets and near-Earth objects, respectively. For Jupiter, the corresponding fractions in the first three categories are 0.18, 0.31 and 0.51. If we consider physical fading of comet activity that is compatible with the observations, then the impact rates of active comets are two orders of magnitude smaller than the total impact rates by all kinds of comets and cometary asteroids of size 1 km or greater.     

Long-Period Comets and the Oort Cloud

Long-period (LP) comets, Halley-type (HT) comets, and even some comets of the Jupiter family, probably come from the Oort cloud, a huge reservoir of icy bodies that surrounds the solar system. Therefore, these comets become important probes to learn about the distant Oort cloud population. We review the fundamental dynamical properties of LP comets, and what is our current understanding of the dynamical mechanisms that bring these bodies from the distant Oort cloud region to the inner planetary region. Most new comets have original reciprocal semimajor axes in the range2 × 10^-5 < 1/a_orig < 5 × 10^-5AU^-1. Yet, this cannot be taken to represent the actual space distribution of Oort cloud comets, but only the region in the energy space in which external perturbers have the greatest efficiency in bringing comets to the inner planetary region. The flux of Oort cloud comets in the outer planetary region is found to be at least several tens times greater than the flux in the inner planetary region. The sharp decrease closer to the Sun is due to the powerful gravitational fields of Jupiter and Saturn that prevent most Oort cloud comets from reaching the Earth’s neighborhood (they act as a dynamical barrier). A small fraction of ～10^-2 Oort cloud comets become Halley type (orbital periods P < 200 yr), and some of them can reach short-period orbits with P < 20 yr. We analyze whether we can distinguish the latter, very ‘old” LP comets, from comets of the Jupier family coming from the Edgeworth-Kuiper belt.     

Evaluating Cometary Delivery of Organics to the Early Earth

An approximate calculation of the amount of organic material (OM) delivered to the Earth by comets during the first 700 million years of the planet's existence has been carried out. Approximation formulas based on lunar-crater data have been used for the flux of bodies colliding with the Earth. The calculations of impact velocities have been performed with allowance made for dragging and ablation of bodies in the atmosphere. Semianalytical models used in these calculations take into account the increase in the cross-sectional area of a disrupted meteoroid due to aerodynamic forces, as well as specific features of radiative heat transfer at large optical depths. Particular attention has been given to oblique trajectories that correspond to the perigee distances of cometary orbits close to the Earth's radius. Kilometer-sized comets, which arrived at the surface with low velocities, contributed largely to the mean OM flux under conditions of a dense early terrestrial atmosphere. For the atmosphere with a near-surface pressure of 10 bars, this flux comprises (1–40) × 10⁷ kg per year. As will be shown below, rare but highly probable events of atmospheric entry of large (10 km) comets along oblique trajectories may have produced high local concentrations of organic molecules.     

Source regions and timescales for the delivery of water to the Earth

Abstract— In the primordial solar system, the most plausible sources of the water accreted by the Earth were in the outer asteroid belt, in the giant planet regions, and in the Kuiper Belt. We investigate the implications on the origin of Earth's water of dynamical models of primordial evolution of solar system bodies and check them with respect to chemical constraints. We find that it is plausible that the Earth accreted water all along its formation, from the early phases when the solar nebula was still present to the late stages of gas‐free sweepup of scattered planetesimals. Asteroids and the comets from the Jupiter‐Saturn region were the first water deliverers, when the Earth was less than half its present mass. The bulk of the water presently on Earth was carried by a few planetary embryos, originally formed in the outer asteroid belt and accreted by the Earth at the final stage of its formation. Finally, a late veneer, accounting for at most 10% of the present water mass, occurred due to comets from the Uranus‐Neptune region and from the Kuiper Belt. The net result of accretion from these several reservoirs is that the water on Earth had essentially the D/H ratio typical of the water condensed in the outer asteroid belt. This is in agreement with the observation that the D/H ratio in the oceans is very close to the mean value of the D/H ratio of the water inclusions in carbonaceous chondrites.     

Impact orbits of the asteroid 2009 FJ with the Earth

We show how to calculate the impact orbits of dangerous asteroids using the freely available the OrbFit software, and compare our results with impact orbits calculated using Sitarski??s independent software (Sitarski, 1999; 2000; 2006). The new method is tested on asteroid 2009 FJ. Using the OrbFit package to integrate alternate orbits along the line of variation (Milani et al., 2002; 2005a; 2005b), we identify impact orbits and can plot paths of risk for the Earth or any other body in the Solar System. We present the orbital elements of asteroid 2009 FJ and its ephemerides, along with uncertainties, for the next 100 years. This paper continues a long-term research program on impact solutions for asteroids (Wlodarczyk, 2007; 2008; 2009).     

Opportunities for the stratospheric collection of dust from short‐period comets

Abstract— We have identified four comets which have produced low‐velocity Earth‐crossing dust streams within the past century: 7P/Pons‐Winnecke, 26P/Grigg‐Skjellerup, 73P/Schwassmann‐Wachmann 3, and 103P/Hartley 2. These comets have had the rare characteristics of low eccentricity, low inclination orbits with nodes very close to 1 AU. Dust from these comets is directly injected into Earth‐crossing orbits by radiation pressure, unlike the great majority of interplanetary dust particles collected in the stratosphere which spend millennia in space prior to Earth‐encounter. Complete dust streams from these comets form within a few decades, and appreciable amounts of dust are accreted by the Earth each year regardless of the positions of the parent comets. Dust from these comets could be collected in the stratosphere and identified by its short space exposure age, as indicated by low abundances of implanted solar‐wind noble gases and/or lack of solar flare tracks. Dust from Grigg‐Skjellerup probably has the highest concentration at Earth orbit. We estimate that the proportion of dust from this comet will reach at least several percent of the background interplanetary dust flux in the >40 μm size range during April 23–24 of 2003.     

The Kozai resonance in the outer solar system and the dynamics of long-period comets

We consider the secular evolution of the orbits of bodies in the Outer Solar System under the perturbations of the jovian planets assumed on coplanar and circular orbits. Through the approach used for asteroidal belt by Yoshihide Kozai in 1962, we obtain that the Kozai resonance do not affect the behavior of bodies belonging to the Kuiper belt but concerns the long-timescale evolution of long-period comets. In particular this resonance appears as a process contributing to produce Sun-grazer comets.     

Dynamical evolution of cometary asteroids

We present results from long-term numerical integrations of hypothetical Jupiter-family comets (JFCs) over time-scales in excess of the estimated cometary active lifetime. During inactive periods these bodies could be considered as 'cometary' near-Earth objects (NEOs) or 'cometary asteroids'. The contribution of cometary asteroids to the NEO population has important implications not only for understanding the origin of inner Solar system bodies but also for a correct assessment of the impact hazard presented to the Earth by small bodies throughout the Solar system. We investigate the transfer probabilities on to 'decoupled' subJovian orbits by both gravitational and non-gravitational mechanisms, and estimate the overall inactive cometary contribution to the NEO population. Considering gravitational mechanisms alone, more than 90 per cent of decoupled NEOs are likely to have their origin in the main asteroid belt. When non-gravitational forces are included, in a simple model, the rate of production of decoupled NEOs from JFC orbits becomes comparable to the estimated injection rate of fragments from the main belt. The Jupiter-family (non-decoupled) cometary asteroid population is estimated to be of the order of a few hundred to a few thousand bodies, depending on the assumed cometary active lifetime and the adopted source region.     

DNA sequencing and predictions of the cosmic theory of life

The theory of cometary panspermia, developed by the late Sir Fred Hoyle and the present author argues that life originated cosmically as a unique event in one of a great multitude of comets or planetary bodies in the Universe. Life on Earth did not originate here but was introduced by impacting comets, and its further evolution was driven by the subsequent acquisition of cosmically derived genes. Explicit predictions of this theory published in 1979–1981, stating how the acquisition of new genes drives evolution, are compared with recent developments in relation to horizontal gene transfer, and the role of retroviruses in evolution. Precisely-stated predictions of the theory of cometary panspermia are shown to have been verified.     

Nonuniform cratering of the terrestrial planets

We estimate the impact flux and cratering rate as a function of latitude on the terrestrial planets using a model distribution of planet crossing asteroids and comets [Bottke, W.F., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., Petit, J.-M., Levison, H.F., Michel, P., Metcalfe, T.S., 2002. Icarus 156, 399-433]. After determining the planetary impact probabilities as a function of the relative encounter velocity and encounter inclination, the impact positions are calculated analytically, assuming the projectiles follow hyperbolic paths during the encounter phase. As the source of projectiles is not isotropic, latitudinal variations of the impact flux are predicted: the calculated ratio between the pole and equator is 1.05 for Mercury, 1.00 for Venus, 0.96 for the Earth, 0.90 for the Moon, and 1.14 for Mars over its long-term obliquity variation history. By taking into account the latitudinal dependence of the impact velocity and impact angle, and by using a crater scaling law that depends on the vertical component of the impact velocity, the latitudinal variations of the cratering rate (the number of craters with a given size formed per unit time and unit area) is in general enhanced. With respect to the equator, the polar cratering rate is about 30% larger on Mars and 10% on Mercury, whereas it is 10% less on the Earth and 20% less on the Moon. The cratering rate is found to be uniform on Venus. The relative global impact fluxes on Mercury, Venus, the Earth and Mars are calculated with respect to the Moon, and we find values of 1.9, 1.8, 1.6, and 2.8, respectively. Our results show that the relative shape of the crater size-frequency distribution does not noticeably depend upon latitude for any of the terrestrial bodies in this study. Nevertheless, by neglecting the expected latitudinal variations of the cratering rate, systematic errors of 20-30% in the age of planetary surfaces could exist between equatorial and polar regions when using the crater chronology method.     

Families of periodic planetary-type orbits in the three-body problem and their stability

Several families of the planar general three-body problem for fixed values of the three masses are found, in a rotating frame of reference, where the mass of two of the bodies is small compared to the mass of the third body. These families were obtained by the continuation of a degenerate family of periodic orbits of three bodies where two of the bodies have zero masses and describe circular orbits around a third body with finite mass, in the same direction.The above families represent planetary systems with the body with the large mass representing the Sun and the two small bodies representing two planets or comets. One section of a family is shown to represent the Jupiter family of comets and also a model for the Sun-Jupiter-Saturn system is found.The stability analysis revealed that stability exists for small masses and small eccentricities of the two planets. Planetary systems with relatively large masses and eccentricities are proved to be unstable. In particular, the Jupiter family of comets, for small masses of the two small bodies, and the Sun-Jupiter-Saturn system are proved to be stable. Also, it was shown that resonances are not necessarily associated with instabilities.     

Young Meteor Swarms Near the Sun: I. Statistical Correlation of Meteors with Families of Short-Perihelion Comets

We examine the hypothesis about the formation of meteor streams near the Sun. Families of short-perihelion orbit comets, many of which pass just a few radii from the solar surface at perihelion and have high dust production efficiencies, are assumed to be candidates for the parent bodies of these meteor streams. Our statistical analysis of orbital and kinematic parameters for short-perihelion meteoric particles recorded at the Earth and comets from the Kreutz family and the Marsden, Kracht, and Meyer groups led us to certain conclusions regarding the proposed hypothesis. We found a correlation between the ecliptic longitude of perihelion for comet and meteor orbits and the perihelion distance. This correlation may be suggestive of either a genetic connection between the objects of these two classes or the result of an as yet unknown mechanism that equally acts on short-perihelion comet and meteor orbits. A reliable conclusion about this genetic connection can be reached for the meteors that belong to the Arietids stream and the Marsden comet group.     

New constraints on the delivery of cometary water and nitrogen to Earth from the N/N isotopic ratio

New independent constraints on the amount of water delivered to Earth by comets are derived using the ¹⁵N/¹⁴N isotopic ratio, measured to be roughly twice as high in cometary CN and HCN as in the present Earth. Under reasonable assumptions, we find that no more than a few percent of Earth’s water can be attributed to comets, in agreement with the constraints derived from D/H. Our results also suggest that a significant part of Earth’s atmospheric nitrogen might come from comets. Since the ¹⁵N/¹⁴N isotopic ratio is not different in Oort-cloud and Kuiper-belt comets, our estimates apply to the contribution of both types of objects.     

Clues on the importance of comets in the origin and evolution of the atmospheres of Titan and Earth

Earth and Titan are two planetary bodies formed far from each other. Nevertheless the chemical composition of their atmospheres exhibits common indications of being produced by the accretion, plus ulterior in-situ processing of cometary materials. This is remarkable because while the Earth formed in the inner part of the disk, presumably from the accretion of rocky planetesimals depleted in oxygen and exhibiting a chemical similitude with enstatite chondrites, Titan formed within Saturn's sub-nebula from oxygen- and volatile-rich bodies, called cometesimals. From a cosmochemical and astrobiological perspective, the study of the H, C, N, and O isotopes on Earth and Titan could be the key to decipher the processes occurred in the early stages of formation of both planetary bodies. The main goal of this paper is to quantify the presumable ways of chemical evolution of both planetary bodies, in particular the abundance of CO and N₂ in their early atmospheres. In order to do that the primeval atmospheres and evolution of Titan and Earth have been analyzed from a thermodynamic point of view. The most relevant chemical reactions involving these species and presumably important at their early stages are discussed. Then, we have interpreted the results of this study in light of the results obtained by the Cassini–Huygens mission on these species and their isotopes. Given that H, C, N, and O were preferentially depleted from inner disk materials that formed our planet, the observed similitude of their isotopic fractionation, and subsequent close evolution of Earth's and Titan's atmospheres points towards a cometary origin of Earth atmosphere. Consequently, our scenario also supports the key role of late veneers (comets and water-rich carbonaceous asteroids) enriching the volatile content of the Earth at the time of the late heavy bombardment of terrestrial planets.     

Comet and asteroid ephemerides for spacecraft encounters

To a significant degree, the success of spacecraft missions to comets and asteroids depends upon the accuracy of the target body ephemerides. In turn, accurate ephemerides depend upon the quality of the astrometric data set used in determining the object's orbit and the accuracy with which the target body's motion can be modelled. Using error analyses studies of the target bodies for the NEAR, Muses-C, Clementine 2, Stardust, and Rosetta missions, conclusions are drawn as to how to minimize target body position uncertainties at the times of encounter, In general, these uncertainties will be minimized when the object has a good number of optical observations spread over several orbital periods. If a target body lacks a lengthy data interval, its ephemeris uncertainties can be dramatically reduced with the use of radar Doppler and delay data taken when the body is relatively close to the Earth. The combination of radar and optical angle data taken at close Earth distances just before a spacecraft encounter can result in surprisingly small target body ephemeris uncertainties.     

Simulation of the detection zone of dangerous celestial bodies for space-based systems

The simulation results of zones of visibility of celestial bodies potentially dangerous for a wide-field orbital telescope taking into account the basic parameters of the detector, telescope, and movement of celestial bodies are presented. Visibility zones of 50–300 m of dangerous celestial bodies 7–60 days prior to their possible collision with the Earth are calculated using telescopes with apertures of 0.4, 0.75 (VT-77), and 1.5 m.     

On the rotational breakup of cometary nuclei and centaurs

Here we estimate the regions of stability, fragmentation, and destruction for cometary bodies versus rotational breakup in the radius-rotational period plane. By testing different plausible physical models of the cometary nucleus equation of state, we show that the plane is divided into 3 segments: the allowed, damaged, and forbidden regions. We then compare the location of well-observed comets with respect to the separation lines. The range of constituent material parameters from the literature for cometary nuclei are used to show that all the observed comets lie in the allowed region, except for Comet C/1995 O1 (Hale-Bopp), which resides in the damaged region (where the body is fractured and only held together gravitationally). We speculate that the extremely high activity demonstrated by Comet Hale-Bopp during the 1997 apparition may have been due to its highly fractured state. Comet Hyakutake, observed to emit fragments at perigee in 1996, may be near the boundary of the damaged region. Comet C/1999 S4 (LINEAR) was solidly in the rotationally allowed region, making its disintegration in July 2000 due to centrifugal forces unlikely. In contrast to the comets, the centaurs do not cluster in the allowed region, with the majority falling instead into the rotationally damaged and forbidden regions. The centaurs are only stable against breakup assuming much stronger solid water ice properties, strongly suggesting that on the whole, these bodies have different bulk physical properties than cometary nuclei.