基于OpenGIS的突发性地质灾害预警系统

对突发性灾害准确的预报,可以避免人身伤害以及重大经济损失,同时灾害一旦发生,及时高效地救援同样也可减少重大的人身伤亡和财产损失,这在防灾减灾中具有重大的现实意义。这里通过采用先进的OpenGIS技术,从系统的整体设计到模型建立,处理流程等方面,都进行了详细的叙述。系统采用B/S模式,完全基于OpenGIS、WFS-T和WMS规范,通过WFS服务,实现特征类级的数据共享,以GML的文档格式,实时提供特征类元素的信息存取与交换。通过Internet网络将各种数据进行融合,完全可以实现各种灾害信息的及时汇集、处理,并将这些数据作为参数,输入已建立的灾害预警模型,并对突发性灾害作出预警,为防灾减灾提供可靠的决策依据。     

基于GIS的重庆市地质灾害信息管理系统

重庆市是我国地质灾害非常严重的省市之一,长期以来,地质灾害严重地影响了重庆市社会经济的建设与发展.为了加强对地质灾害规律的研究以及科学的管理地质灾害信息,该文章初步探讨了基于GIS的重庆市地质灾害信息管理系统(ChongqingGeologicHazardManagementInformationSystem)的设计与建立.该系统面向用户,依据科学性、实用性、规范性和开放性的原则设计,并且以MapGis和MapInfo、Mapx作为后台支持,利用Visualbasic5.0中文企业版作为开发语言.该系统具有信息的采集与更新、信息的空间检索与查询、信息的可视与GIS功能、信息输出和系统说明与帮助等5大功能.     

Flood forecasts based on multi-model ensemble precipitation forecasting using a coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system

The recent improvement of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models has a strong potential for extending the lead time of precipitation and subsequent flooding. However, uncertainties inherent in precipitation outputs from NWP models are propagated into hydrological forecasts and can also be magnified by the scaling process, contributing considerable uncertainties to flood forecasts. In order to address uncertainties in flood forecasting based on single-model precipitation forecasting, a coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system based on multi-model ensemble precipitation forecasting is implemented in a configuration for two episodes of intense precipitation affecting the Wangjiaba sub-region in Huaihe River Basin, China. The present study aimed at comparing high-resolution limited-area meteorological model Canadian regional mesoscale compressible community model (MC2) with the multiple linear regression integrated forecast (MLRF), covering short and medium range. The former is a single-model approach; while the latter one is based on NWP models [(MC2, global environmental multiscale model (GEM), T213L31 global spectral model (T213)] integrating by a multiple linear regression method. Both MC2 and MLRF are coupled with Chinese National Flood Forecasting System (NFFS), MC2-NFFS and MLRF-NFFS, to simulate the discharge of the Wangjiaba sub-basin. The evaluation of the flood forecasts is performed both from a meteorological perspective and in terms of discharge prediction. The encouraging results obtained in this study demonstrate that the coupled system based on multi-model ensemble precipitation forecasting has a promising potential of increasing discharge accuracy and modeling stability in terms of precipitation amount and timing, along with reducing uncertainties in flood forecasts and models. Moreover, the precipitation distribution of MC2 is more problematic in finer temporal and spatial scales, even for the high resolution simulation, which requests further research on storm-scale data assimilation, sub-grid-scale parameterization of clouds and other small-scale atmospheric dynamics.     

Flood forecasting based on an artificial neural network scheme

Natural Hazards - Nowadays, floods have become the widest global environmental and economic hazard in many countries, causing huge loss of lives and materials damages. It is, therefore, necessary...     

Landslides susceptibility mapping based on geographical information system,GuiZhou, south-west China

The purpose of this study is to assess the susceptibility of landslides around the area of Guizhou province, in south-west of China, using a geographical information system (GIS). The base map is prepared by visiting the field area and mapping individual landslide at a scale of 1:500,000 topographic maps. In the study, slope, lithology, landslide inventory, tectonic activity, drainage distribution and annual precipitation were taken as independent causal factors. Therefore, six causal factors maps are prepared by collecting information from various authorized sources and converting them in to GIS maps. The susceptibility assessment is based on the qualitative map combination model and trapezoidal fuzzy number weighting (TFNW) approach. Using a predicted map of probability, the study area was classified into four categories of landslide susceptibility: low, moderate, high and very high. In addition, the weighting procedure showed that the TFNW is an efficient method for landslide causal factors weighting.     

MERLIN: a flood hazard forecasting system for coastal river reaches

Natural Hazards - This study presents MERLIN, an innovative flood hazard forecasting system for predicting discharges and water levels at flood prone areas of coastal catchments. Discharge...     

基于信息分维对地裂缝灾害成因的研究

本文结合研究实例介绍了分形理论在研究地裂缝灾害成因中的应用.主要突出了(1)运用分形方法研究地学对象成因机制的原理和一般过程;(2)研究对象与影响因素之间的分形(或自相似)关系未必一定是几何相似关系,许多情况下可以是信息自相似或功能自相似关系.理解这一点,可以大大促进分形理论在地学中应用的广度和深度.     

鳌江流域洪水预报调度决策支持系统

位于浙江省温州市南部的鳌江是一条洪水灾害频繁的河流.介绍了鳌江流域洪水预报调度决策支持系统的总体设计、功能模块、逻辑结构、模型组织以及应用水文学及水力学的方法对流域洪水演进过程进行模拟计算的方法等,建立了一个可以在中小流域推广应用的防洪预报调度系统.     

GIS技术在地质灾害信息系统中的应用

GIS技术的产生是计算机技术和信息化发展的共同产物。是管理和研究空间数据的技术系统。可以迅速地获取满足应用需要的信息,能以地图、图形或数据的形式表示处理的结果。论文介绍了GIS技术的应用现状,建立基于GIS技术的地质灾害信息系统的必要性,讨论了基于GIS技术应用在地质灾害信息系统的主要功能及系统结构,并就建立地质灾害数据库和建立地质灾害模型做了初步探讨。对于全面掌握一定范围内可能产生的自然灾害的分布,预测和预报可能产生的工程地质灾害,对地质灾害的防御和处理,最终保障社会的安全有着极为重要的作用。由客观世界到信息化世界的认识和抽象过程以及由信息世界返回客观世界的利用改造过程的发展和转化,创造了良好的条件和环境。     

Hypsometric analysis of Shakkar river catchment through geographical information system

Hypsometric analysis of watershed (area-elevation analysis) has generally been used to reveal the stages of geomorphic development (stabilized, mature and young). The geologic stages of development and proneness of the watersheds for erosion are quantified by hypsometric integral. The estimation of hypsometric integral is carried out from the graphical plot of the measured contour elevation and encompassed area by using empirical formulae. In this study, efforts were made to estimate the hypsometric integral values of Shakkar river watershed which is a tributary of Narmada river located in Madhya Pradesh. The watershed was delineated into eight sub-watersheds and hypsometric analysis was carried out for all of them using digital contour maps, which was generated using Arc/Info GIS. The hypsometric integral values for all the sub-watersheds of Shakkar river ranges between 0.47 and 0.51. In the study area, only mature stage of erosion cycle is identified.     

Flood forecasting and analysis within the Ulus Basin, Turkey, using geographic information systems

Floods have been the most severe natural disasters in the West Black Sea Region of Turkey for many years; therefore Ulus Basin is selected as a study area for a thorough hydrologic flood analysis. The lack of embankments around the Ulus River and careless changes to the riverbed made by villagers, resulted in major flood events in the basin, causing significant damage in the area. In this study, the hydrodynamic characteristics of the basin and the riverbed are determined by calibrating the hydraulic module of the MIKE 11 modeling system with the observed 1991 flood. Then, for the 25-, 50- and 100-year floods the highest water levels in the river are forecasted by integration of the MIKE 11 hydrologic and hydraulic modules. Afterwards, inundation maps are obtained by using together the hydraulic and GIS modules of the MIKE 11 system.     

Investigation of land use changes on soil erosion process using geographical information system

Land use change quantified for the last 50 years within and near a fast growing agricultural land in Neka River Basin, using geographic information systems. Land cover and land use change was projected for the next decade using topography, geology, land use maps and remote sensing data of the study area. The study explored the relationships between agricultural land growth and landscape changes. The land use changes assessed among the different land cover classes. It is important to mention that conducting of the present study a very severe land cover changes taken place as the result of agricultural land development. These changes in land cover led to the forest degradation of the study area. Relationship between land-use changes and agricultural growth offered a more robust prediction of soil erosion in Neka watershed. This study aims to find the relationships between land use pattern, erosion and the sediment yield in the study area. The land use coefficient has applied in the model of erosion potential method to forecast the effect of the land type to reduce the erosion. The results of this study indicated that the total sediment yield of the study area has notably decreased to 89.24 % after an appropriate land use/cover alteration. The estimated special erosion for the southern Neka Basin is about 144465.1 m³/km² where after management policy is predicted 15542.9 m³/km²/y. Therefore, the total difference for the study area has estimated about 128922.2 m3/km2/y.     

Flood hazard and risk assessment in Russia

Flood risk assessment is usually performed by application of sophisticated mathematical models of river flow. However, there are cases when it is required to assess the risk in the lack of data conditions or a limited time available. In such cases, it is advisable to use some simplifications, which provide reliable results faster. This study proposes a hybrid approach to the flood risk assessment combining quantitative and qualitative indicators. The article describes various methods to assess the flood risk, such as likelihood of flooding, magnitude of the flood, average annual damage, maximum damage and expectation of damage. The authors examined special cases of calculation of the mathematical expectation of harm and zoning in the corresponding indicators. This approach is designed for the conditions of the Russian Federation, but it can be adapted for other regions. It is based on the use of two types of risk maps. The first type of maps is intended to define the mathematical expectation of damage zones for reference building with possibility of risk calculation for other buildings using multiple factors. The second type of maps is designed for the purposes of land use regulation for floodplains based on a priori statistical estimates of flood risk.     

Flood hazard and risk assessment in Russia

The occurrence of rockfall incidents on the transportation network may cause injuries, and even casualties, as well as severe damage to infrastructure such as dwellings, railways, road corridors, etc. Passive protective measures (i.e., rockfall barriers, wire nets, etc.) are mainly deployed by operators of ground transport networks to minimize the impact of detrimental effects on these networks. In conjunction with these passive measures, active rockfall monitoring should ideally include the magnitude of each rockfall, its initial and final position, and the triggering mechanism that might have caused its detachment from the slope. In this work, the operational principle of a low-cost rockfall monitoring and alerting system is being presented. The system integrates measurements from a multi-channel seismograph and commercial cameras as the primary equipment for event detection. A series of algorithms analyze these measurements independently in order to reduce alarms originated by surrounding noise and sources other than rockfall events. The detection methodology employs two different sets of algorithms: Time–frequency analyses of the rockfall event’s seismic signature are performed using moving window pattern recognition algorithms, whereas image processing techniques are utilized to deliver object detection and localization. Training and validation of the proposed approach was performed through field tests that involved manually induced rockfall events and recording of sources (i.e., passing car, walking people) that may cause a false alarm. These validation tests revealed that the seismic monitoring algorithms produce a 4.17 % false alarm rate with an accuracy of 93 %. Finally, the results of a 34-day operational monitoring period are presented and the ability of the imaging system to identify and exclude false alarms is discussed. The entire processing cycle is 10–15 s. Thus, it can be considered as a near real-time system for early warning of rockfall events.     

Flood hazard in Hungary: a re-assessment

Some decades ago the concept of flood hazard in the Carpathian Basin was interpreted solely as riverine flood hazard, mostly restricted to the Tisza and Danube Rivers, and was closely associated with the impacts of river flow regulation in the second half of the 19th century. Recent assessments, however, allow us to outline a more diverse picture. Climate change is predicted to bring about both an increase in the frequency of droughts and excessive rainfall events, resulting in irregulaties in the water regimes of rivers in Hungary. Excess water hazard from raised groundwater levels is found to affect much larger areas than previously thought. Recent strongly localized cloudbursts, point to the increasing significance of flash floods.Riverine flooding and excess water hazard are more common in lowlands, whereas flash flood hazards are primarily, but not exclusively, affect the mountainous and hilly regions of the country. This paper intends to assess the relative importance of the three types of inundation hazard analyzed and to illustrate their overall spatial occurrences by microregions on a map series.     

基于层次分析法的绵阳市地质灾害易发性评价

文章阐述了层次分析法应用于地质灾害易发性评价过程及步骤,并运用该方法(AHP)建立地质灾害易发性综合评价的层次分析结构模型及判断矩阵,从而确定了影响地质灾害易发程度因子的权重,建立了地质灾害易发性单灾种评价及区域地质灾害易发性综合评价的数学模型.绵阳市地质灾害易发性评价应用证明,该方法比较合理、有效,具有较高的预测精度,评价结果与实际地质灾害发育区的拟合率大于90%.     

金属矿山地质灾害信息管理系统的开发

文章总结了目前我国金属矿山普遍采用人工记录、档案管理的灾害信息管理模式中存在的问题。在对我国金属矿山地质灾害全面调查和分类基础上,构建金属矿山地质灾害数据库,并建立灾害信息管理局域网,开发了金属矿山地质灾害信息管理系统(Geological Hazard Information Managment System for Metal Mine,GHIMSMM)。该系统实现了对灾害发生时间、地点、灾情、灾害诱因、经济损失、灾害分类等查询功能,并可根据该系统分析各类灾害的发展趋势。系统集成了MAPGIS地理信息系统平台部分功能,成功地将GIS技术应用到金属矿山地质灾害防治、监测工作中。