Changes in the rainfall–streamflow regimes related to climate change in a small catchment in Northern Italy

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Climate change has become an important issue for scientific community, for its numerous impacts, especially on agriculture and environment. To shed light on...     

Turbulence closure in boundary-layer theory —An invitation to debate

Turbulence in the Planetary Boundary Layer has been a topic of research for a long time. Its theory, however, is hampered by the fact that we have fewer fundamental equations than unknowns when dealing with turbulent motions. The search for additional laws to match the number of equations with the number of unknowns in turbulence theory is commonly labelled the turbulent closure problem. Despite considerable effort, this problem has not been solved. There is a variety of approaches available. However, these have not converged towards a commonly accepted PBL theory, like the Monin-Obukhov similarity for the surface layer. The Working Group on Boundary Layer Dynamics and Air-Sea interaction of ICDM/IAMAP therefore invites the scientific community to discuss these problems and possible solutions. The present paper intends to stimulate such a discussion.     

Changes in Local Growing Season Indices in Shanghai Due to Urbanization during 1873–2013

The contribution of urbanization to the changes in growing season indices(e.g.,the start date of the growing season,Ds)in Shanghai,eastern China,for the period 1873–2013 is assessed.The urban-related Ds advancement(referred to as the urbanization contribution,UC)is reconstructed based on the changing urban-land fraction within a grid box around Shanghai for 1873–2013.After removing the UC from the raw Ds time series,the secular trend(ST)representing the long-term climatic warming and multidecadal variability(MDV)representing an oscillatory component with a period of several decades are obtained by using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition(EEMD)method.Results show that the UC is comparable with the contribution of the ST for the period 1873–2013,when Ds exhibits an advancing rate of about 0.44 days per decade.MDV plays an important role in regulating changes in Ds on the decadal timescale,e.g.,with a contribution of about 56.1%for1981–2013.     

Stream temperature sensitivity to climate warming in California’s Sierra Nevada: impacts to coldwater habitat

Water temperature influences the distribution, abundance, and health of aquatic organisms in stream ecosystems, so understanding the impacts of climate warming on stream temperature will help guide management and restoration. This study assesses climate warming impacts on stream temperatures in California’s west-slope Sierra Nevada watersheds, and explores stream temperature modeling at the mesoscale. We used natural flow hydrology to isolate climate induced changes from those of water operations and land use changes. A 21 year time series of weekly streamflow estimates from WEAP21, a spatially explicit rainfall-runoff model were passed to RTEMP, an equilibrium temperature model, to estimate stream temperatures. Air temperature was uniformly increased by 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C as a sensitivity analysis to bracket the range of likely outcomes for stream temperatures. Other meteorological conditions, including precipitation, were unchanged from historical values. Raising air temperature affects precipitation partitioning into snowpack, runoff, and snowmelt in WEAP21, which change runoff volume and timing as well as stream temperatures. Overall, stream temperatures increased by an average of 1.6°C for each 2°C rise in air temperature, and increased most during spring and at middle elevations. Viable coldwater habitat shifted to higher elevations and will likely be reduced in California. Thermal heterogeneity existed within and between basins, with the high elevations of the southern Sierra Nevada and the Feather River watershed most resilient to climate warming. The regional equilibrium temperature modeling approach used here is well suited for climate change analysis because it incorporates mechanistic heat exchange, is not overly data or computationally intensive, and can highlight which watersheds are less vulnerable to climate warming. Understanding potential changes to stream temperatures from climate warming will affect how fish and wildlife are managed, and should be incorporated into modeling studies, restoration assessments, and licensing operations of hydropower facilities to best estimate future conditions and achieve desired outcomes.     

Diverse Responses of Phenology in Multi-Grassland to Environmental Factors on Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau in China

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Studying grassland vegetation growing seasons’ spatial patterns and their environmental controls are crucial to promoting vegetation ecological...     

Changes in the cloud properties in response to El Niño: a bivariate approach

We analyse the dependence of the cloud radiative effect (CRE) and cloud amount on mid-tropospheric pressure velocity (ω ₅₀₀) and sea surface temperature (SST) and point out the shortcomings of using these two proxies separately as means to separate cloud regimes. A bivariate approach is proposed to overcome these shortcomings and it is used to systematically investigate marine cloud properties at different spatial and time scales in the present-day (1985–2001) tropical climate. During the 1997–1998 El Niño, the greatest regional change in CRE and cloud cover coincides with the greatest local change in circulation and SST. In addition, we find that the cooling effect of the stratiform low clouds reduces at the rate of approximately 1 W/m² per percent of cloudiness reduction in the subsident cold pools of the Pacific ocean. During El Niño, the transition between different cloud regimes gives rise to opposing cloud feedbacks. The sign of the total feedback is controlled by the cloud optical thickness. More generally, we find that the largest part of the cloud response to El Niño, when averaged over the tropical Pacific, is not directly associated with ω ₅₀₀ and SST changes, so other factors must play a role as well.     

Land use contribution to the anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases in Russia in 2000–2011

Presented is the assessment of the contribution that such major types of the land use in Russia as arable lands, forage lands, settlements, and peatery make to anthropogenic fluxes of carbon dioxide CO₂, methane CH₄, and nitrogen oxide N₂O, The assessment is based on the methods of computation monitoring carried out in the period from 2000 to 2011. The results of the study demonstrated that every year arable lands cause the emission of CO₂ and N₂O of about 117.0 and 74.9 million t CO₂ equiv, and peatery, 0.54 and 105.4 thousand t CO₂ equiv, respectively. The balance of soil carbon in hayfields and pastures is close to zero. The average emissions of CH₄ and N₂O from the manure of pasture animals amount to 0.2 and 5.0 million t CO₂ equiv/year, and those from grass fires, 276.1 and 372.5 thousand t CO₂ equiv/year, respectively. The carbon balance in permanent soils of settlements is also almost close to zero, and newly built-up lands are the source of CO₂ (9.5 million t/year). The natural overgrowing of fallow lands leads to the accumulation of the soil carbon (about 92.4 million t CO₂/year). It was revealed that the intensity of CO₂ emission is defined by the soil carbon balance and that of other gases, by the amount of nitrogen fertilizers, plant residues, and manure coming to the soil. The total emission from the land use is 106.9 million t CO₂ equiv/year that makes up 4.9% of the total anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases in the Russian Federation.     

Modeling sediment accumulation in North American playa wetlands in response to climate change, 1940–2100

Playa wetlands on the west-central Great Plains of North America are vulnerable to sediment infilling from upland agriculture, putting at risk several important ecosystem services as well as essential habitats and food resources of diverse wetland-dependent biota. Climate predictions for this semi-arid area indicate reduced precipitation which may alter rates of erosion, runoff, and sedimentation of playas. We forecasted erosion rates, sediment depths, and resultant playa wetland depths across the west-central Great Plains and examined the relative roles of land use context and projected changes in precipitation in the sedimentation process. We estimated erosion with the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) using historic values and downscaled precipitation predictions from three general circulation models and three emissions scenarios. We calibrated RUSLE results using field sediment measurements. RUSLE is appealing for regional scale modeling because it uses climate forecasts with monthly resolution and other widely available values including soil texture, slope and land use. Sediment accumulation rates will continue near historic levels through 2070 and will be sufficient to cause most playas (if not already filled) to fill with sediment within the next 100 years in the absence of mitigation. Land use surrounding the playa, whether grassland or tilled cropland, is more influential in sediment accumulation than climate-driven precipitation change.     

The Synoptic Climatology of Monthly Mean Surface Temperature in Asia in Relation to the 700 hPa Circulation

The synoptic climatology of monthly mean surface air temperature anomaly (MMATA) at 47 surface stations in Asia is assessed by two types of maps. The first consists of simple linear correlation coefficients between the MMATA at a station and the monthly mean 700 hPa height anomaly (MMHA) at 134 grid points in the Northern Hemisphere. In winter, these fields generally contain two equally important centers: a center of maximum positive correlation approximately 1300 km from the reference station and a negative center about 2800 km to its northwest. In summer, the positive center is located an average of 800 km from the reference station and strongly dominates the MMATA, while the negative center is no longer as important as in winter. The second kind of map is a special type of anomaly composite, constructed by multiplying the correlation coefficient at each grid point by the standard deviation of MMHA at the same point. This map shows the optimum distribution of height anomalies for abnormally warm (or c     

Deforestation in Russia and its contribution to the anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide in 1990–2013

The contribution of deforestation in Russia to the anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in 1990–2013 is estimated using the methods of computational monitoring. It is found that since 1990 the area of deforestation and forest conversion to other land-use categories is equal to 628.4 x 10³ ha. The respective CO₂ emissions from deforestation in Russia for the whole analyzed period are estimated at 142200 kt CO₂ with the average annual value of 5900 + 2270 kt CO₂/year. The largest contribution to the total losses is made by the changes in soil carbon stock (41.6%) and biomass carbon losses (28.8%). CO₂ emissions from deforestation make an insignificant contribution to the total anthropogenic CO₂ emission in the country (0.2%). Among the CO₂ sources in the land use, land-use change, and forestry sector (LULUCF), the emission from deforestation is the lowest with the average for 1990–2013 contribution of about 0.6%.     

Incorporating stakeholders’ knowledge into assessing vulnerability to climatic hazards: application to the river basin management in Taiwan

There is a growing research interest on the transdisciplinary measurement of vulnerability to climatic hazards from the perspective of integrated river basin management. However, the incorporation of stakeholders’ participation, local knowledge and locally spatial characteristics into the process of such vulnerability assessment is one of the challenges faced by decision-makers, especially in developing countries. This article proposes a novel methodology for assessing and communicating vulnerability to policymaking at the river basin level through a case study of Tachia River basin in Taiwan. The authors used a multicriteria decision analysis to develop an integrated vulnerability index applied to a participatory geographic information system (GIS) to map vulnerability to climatic hazards. Using a GIS-based spatial statistics technique and multivariate analysis, we test the degree to which vulnerabilities are spatially autocorrelated throughout the river basin, explain why clustering of vulnerable areas occurs in specific locations, and why some regions are particularly vulnerable. Results demonstrate that vulnerable areas are spatially correlated across the river basin. Moreover, exposure, biophysical sensitivity, land uses and adaptive capacity are key factors contributing to the formation of localized ‘hot spots’ of similarly and particularly vulnerable areas. Finally, we discuss how the findings provide direction for more effective approaches to river basin planning and management.     

What controls phase-locking of ENSO to boreal winter in coupled GCMs?

In this study, the phase-locking of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a coupled model with different physical parameter values is investigated. It is found that there is a dramatic change in ENSO phase-locking in response to a slight change in the Tokioka parameter, which is a minimum entrainment rate threshold in the cumulus parameterization. With a smaller Tokioka parameter, the model simulates ENSO peak in the boreal summer season rather than in the winter season as observed. It is revealed that the differences in climatological zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient and its associated mean state changes are crucial to determine the phase-locking of ENSO. In the simulations with smaller Tokioka parameter values, climatological zonal SST gradient during the boreal summer is excessively large, because the zonally-asymmetric SST change (i.e., SST increase is relatively smaller over the eastern Pacific) is maximum during the boreal summer when the eastern Pacific SST is the coolest of the year. The enhanced climatological zonal SST gradient in boreal summer reduces the convection over the eastern Pacific, which leads to a weakening of air–sea coupling strength. The minimum coupling strength during summer prevents SST anomalies from further development in the following season, which favors SST maximum during summer. In addition, enhanced zonal SST gradient and resultant thermocline shoaling over the eastern Pacific lead to excessive zonal advective feedback and thermocline feedback. Atmospheric damping is also weakened during boreal summer season. These changes due to feedback processes allow an excessive development of SST anomalies during the summer time, and lead to a summer peak of ENSO. The importance of basic state change for the ENSO phase-locking is also validated in a multi-model framework using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-3 archive. It is found that several of the climate models have the same problem in producing a summer peak of ENSO. Consistent with the simulations with different physical parameter values, these models have minimum air–sea coupling strength during the boreal summer season. Also, they have stronger climatological zonal SST gradient and shallower climatological thermocline depth over the eastern Pacific during the boreal summer season.     

Human thermal perception related to Föhn winds due to Saharan dust outbreaks in Crete Island,Greece

Crete Island is located in the southmost border of East Mediterranean basin, facing exacerbating atmospheric conditions (mainly concentrations of particulates) due to Saharan dust outbreaks. It is worth to note that these episodes are more frequent during spring and autumn, when mild biometeorological conditions become intolerable due to the synergy of the so called Föhn winds. Cretan mountains, especially Psiloritis Mt. (summit at 2456 m), are orientated perpendicularly to the southwest air mass flow, generating the Föhn winds. Propagating from the leeward of the mountains, these dry, hot winds have an effect on prevailing biometeorological conditions. While descending to the lowlands on the leeward side of the range, the wind becomes strong, gusty, and desiccating. This wind often lasts less than an hour to several days, with gradual weakening after the first or the second day. Sometimes, it stops very abruptly. In this work, the authors examined and analyzed the abrupt changes of human thermal perception within specific case studies during which Föhn winds appeared in Heraklion city at the leeward of Psiloritis Mt, associated with extreme Saharan dust episodes, observed within the period 2006–2010. In order to verify the development of Föhn winds, Meteorological Terminal Aviation Routine Weather Reports (METARs, meteorological observations every half hour), were acquired from the Heraklion meteorological station installed by the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS). The biometeorological conditions analyzed are based on human thermal bioclimatic indices such as the Physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). METAR recordings of meteorological variables, such as air temperature, vapor pressure, wind speed, and cloudiness, were used as input variables in modeling the aforementioned thermal indices, so that to interpret the grade of the thermo-physiological stress. The PET and UTCI analysis was performed by the use of the radiation and bioclimate model, “RayMan,” which is well-suited to calculate radiation fluxes and human biometeorological indices. The results of the performed analysis showed even an increase of air temperature from 20 to 30 °C within 5 h, associated with a decrease in the vapor pressure from 11.5 to 9.3 hPa. In addition, the wind speed at 10 m increased from 5.1 to 20.1 m/s, 3.7 to 14.3 m/s with respect to 1.1 m height, during the events of Föhn winds. The biometeorological analysis has given evidence that slight/moderate heat stress classes of the examined thermal indices appear during Saharan dust episodes. Such conditions are uncommon at the beginning of spring season, indicating that Saharan dust episodes are not only responsible for acute health impacts but also for adverse biometeorological conditions, due to the very likely development of Föhn winds towards the wider area of Heraklion, a coastal city in the eastern Mediterranean.     

A Review of Atmospheric Electricity Research in China from 2019 to 2022

Atmospheric electricity is composed of a series of electric phenomena in the atmosphere. Significant advances in atmospheric electricity research conducted in China have been achieved in recent years. In this paper, the research progress on atmospheric electricity achieved in China during 2019–22 is reviewed focusing on the following aspects:(1) lightning detection and location techniques,(2) thunderstorm electricity,(3) lightning forecasting methods and techniques,(4)physical processes of light...     

Changes in climatic elements in the Pan-Hexi region during 1960–2014 and responses to global climatic changes

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - In this paper, robust statistical methods (including the climatic tendency ratio, inverse distance weight (IDW), and Mann-Kendall’s non-parametric...