过去千年年代和百年尺度东亚夏季风变化的模拟分析

利用通用地球系统模式过去千年集成（CESM-LME）试验数据,在验证模式模拟能力的基础上,分析了过去千年（850~1849年）年代和百年尺度东亚夏季风变化及其与中国东部夏季降水的关系。总体上,东亚夏季风在过去千年逐渐减弱,并伴随着年代际和百年尺度波动。在变化趋势上,过去千年土地利用不断增加、后期火山爆发偏多和地球轨道参数变化联合引起欧亚大陆中高纬表面温度降低、东亚区域海陆热力差异减小,东亚夏季风相应减弱;在年代际尺度上,东亚夏季风变化与太平洋年代际振荡有关,后者通过影响北太平洋和中国东部表面温度来改变东亚区域海陆热力差异和夏季风强度;百年尺度东亚夏季风波动受多种因子共同调制,期间欧亚大陆中高纬和北太平洋表面温度变化明显。与此同时,过去千年东亚夏季风逐渐减弱伴随着中国东部降水由南向北呈现负—正—负的变化趋势;在年代际和百年尺度上,东亚夏季风偏强时,中国东部降水表现为南旱北涝型分布。

     

全新世南亚高压南北移动及其与亚洲夏季风降水的关系

南亚高压是亚洲夏季风系统的重要组成部分,它的强度及位置变化对亚洲夏季风降水有非常重要的影响,对其变化特征和物理机制的研究可以加深对亚洲夏季风演化的认识。论文利用一个海-气耦合模式（KCM）,在轨道参数的强迫下模拟了全新世以来（9.5~0 ka B.P.）的气候变化,分析了全新世南亚高压的南北移动特征,并探讨其与亚洲夏季风降水的关系。研究发现,全新世以来南亚高压持续向南移动,同时也反映了对流层上层西风逐渐向南扩张,响应逐渐减少的夏季太阳辐射。早全新世南亚高压偏北主要是由于夏季太阳辐射增加导致伊朗高原感热加热加强。南亚高压的南北移动与亚洲夏季风降水有显著的关系,它与东亚季风区北部和印度季风区降水呈正相关关系,而与东亚季风区南部和西南季风区降水呈负相关关系。偏北的南亚高压在东亚北部上空产生异常反气旋,有利于对流层低层空气辐合上升,降水增加,此外异常反气旋还可以加强西太副高,使得输送到东亚北部的水汽增加。南亚高压偏北时还会在中低纬地区产生异常东风带,减弱了来自孟加拉湾的水汽输入,从而使得东亚南部和西南季风区降水减少。偏北的南亚高压还在阿拉伯海上空产生异常气旋,有利于印度夏季风降水的增加。南亚高压的南北振荡可以部分解释相同轨道强迫下亚洲夏季风降水出现显著空间差异的原因。

     

青藏高原地面辐射对中国东部夏季降水影响的数值试验

利用CAM5模式设计敏感性试验,研究了中国东部夏季降水对青藏高原地面辐射异常变化的响应和可能的物理机制。试验结果表明：当高原北部、中部等区域夏季地面辐射减小,中国东部夏季降水整体上增多,但南部、东部沿海区域降水异常减少。青藏高原地面辐射的变化,对青藏高压、西太平洋副热带高压和季风等天气系统具有一定影响,进而影响中国东部地区的夏季降水。当青藏高原地面辐射减小,青藏高压中心位置偏西,强度减弱;东亚季风和南亚季风强度增大,中国东部大部分地区850 hPa风场强度增强;西太平洋副热带高压位置偏东,强度减弱,中国南部、东部沿海区域夏季降水受其影响而减少,但华中、华北、东北等地夏季降水整体上增多。故中国东部夏季降水异常变化与青藏高原地面辐射之间具有显著的相关关系。     

近千年东亚夏季风演变历史重建及与区域温湿变化关系的讨论

集成中国季风区石笋氧同位素记录的共同变化特征,初步建立了近千年10年平均的东亚夏季风演变序列。在10年尺度以上分析了东亚夏季风演变与其他气候要素变化之间的关系。主要结论有： 1)近千年来东亚夏季风演变可划分为中世纪时期(11～13世纪初期)的季风稍弱阶段,13世纪中后期至14世纪前半叶的季风较强时期,14世纪后半叶至17世纪的季风较弱阶段,自18世纪开始持续约200年的季风再次增强时期,以及20世纪初开始的季风逐渐减弱阶段。2)近千年来东亚大陆或北半球温度的变化虽然对东亚夏季风变化具有一定的影响,但东亚夏季风强度的变化并不总是取决于陆地温度的变化。3)近千年来东亚夏季风的强弱变化与降水变化在低频趋势上有良好的对应关系,在东亚夏季风增强的时期,中国东部降水较多,而在夏季风减弱时,中国东部降水趋于偏少。     

Distinct climate change synchronous with Heinrich event one, recorded by stable oxygen and carbon isotopic compositions in stalagmites from China

Uranium-series dating of oxygen and carbon isotope records for stalagmite SJ3 collected in Songjia Cave, central China, shows significant variation in past climate and environment during the period 20-10 ka. Stalagmite SJ3 is located more than 1000 km inland of the coastal Hulu Cave in East China and more than 700 km north of the Dongge Cave in Southwest China and, despite minor differences, displays a clear first-order similarity with the Hulu and Dongge records. The coldest climatic phase since the Last Glacial Maximum, which is associated with the Heinrich Event 1 in the North Atlantic region, was clearly recorded in SJ3 between 17.6 and 14.5 ka, in good agreement in timing, duration and extent with the records from Hulu and Dongge caves and the Greenland ice core. The results indicate that there have been synchronous and significant climatic changes across monsoonal China and strong teleconnections between the North Atlantic and East Asia regions during the period 20-10 ka. This is much different from the Holocene Optimum which shows a time shift of more than several thousands years from southeast coastal to inland China. It is likely that temperature change at northern high latitudes during glacial periods exerts stronger influence on the Asian summer monsoon relative to insolation and appears to be capable of perturbing large-scale atmospheric/oceanic circulation patterns in the Northern Hemisphere and thus monsoonal rainfall and paleovegetation in East Asia. Climatic signals in the North Atlantic region propagate rapidly to East Asia during glacial periods by influencing the winter land-sea temperature contrast in the East Asian monsoon region.     

郑州邙山黄土碳酸盐和白云石含量记录的80 ka以来季风降水变化及驱动机制

揭示东亚季风气候精细变化过程和区域差异,是第四纪古气候学研究的重要内容。本文以季风影响显著的中原郑州黄土堆积上部31 m为研究对象,基于高密度光释光独立定年和619份样品的碳酸盐、白云石含量、磁化率测试,重建了约80 ka以来东亚季风降水/季风强度变化过程。黄土碳酸盐、白云石含量时间序列显示,末次间冰期末期以来,中原地区发生过数次季风降水增强事件,每次降水增强期持续时间短于岁差、偏心率等轨道周期,表明存在亚轨道时间尺度季风快速变化现象。中原黄土碳酸盐/白云石含量主要受土壤呼吸CO₂的影响,土壤呼吸CO₂含量由季风降水和土壤温度控制,因此,碳酸盐/白云石含量是东亚夏季风强度的良好替代指标。中原地区千年时间尺度的季风湿润和干旱事件与其他地区黄土、石笋记录具有同步性,证实在东亚季风降水核心区、中心区和边缘区千年时间尺度干湿变化的同步性,支持季风环流大空间同步增强的模式。这一季风降水型式与现代观测到的"南涝北旱"的"+-+"三极型季风降水分布不同,可能表明不同时间尺度季风降水型式有明显区别。进一步分析表明,季风降水增强/减少事件存在约22 ka和约1.6 ka的周期,表明低纬太阳辐射、大洋环流和高纬度冷事件对东亚季风的联合驱动作用。

     

越南岸外晚第四纪上升流与东亚夏季风变迁

通过对南海西部越南岸外17954-3柱状样中浮游和底栖有孔虫的定量分析,结合碳酸钙、有机碳和稳定同位素数据,获得南海西部上升流区近20万年来的古海洋学记录,进而讨论了晚第四纪东亚夏季风的变迁。结果表明,在间冰期,尤其是末次间冰期,越南岸外出现表层海水古温度低、温跃层浅、生产力高,同时底层海水富营养的现象,说明上升流的存在,且该上升流有从氧同位素5期（MIS5期）向1期逐渐减弱的趋势。结合南海现代海流及生产力分布的研究,推断该上升流由东亚夏季风驱动,其强弱的变化说明,东亚夏季风在近20万年来有间冰期增强、冰期减弱,且从MIS5期向MIS1期递减的特征。     

东亚地区区域气候模拟的研究进展

由于大气环流模式对东亚地区区域气候特征的模拟存在很大不足,采用区域气候模式模拟该地区特殊的季风气候成为目前发展的一个重要研究方向,并取得了显著的研究进展。通过回顾当前东亚地区区域气候模拟的现状,表明大部分区域气候模式都不同程度地模拟出了东亚季风区持续性洪涝现象的大尺度环流特征和演变过程,再现了东亚各主要气候区降水的年际、季节和季节内变化及主要雨带的季节进退和降水的时空演变特征。但是,大部分模式没能很好地模拟出大尺度特征的强度和量值,模拟的温度和降水存在系统性偏差。原因分析表明,进一步完善和改进区域气候模式的物理过程参数化方案及动力框架可以改善模拟效果。最后对区域气候模式未来的发展给出展望。     

青藏高原区域抬升对轨道尺度亚洲季风调制效应的模拟研究

本研究利用大气环流模式, 基于青藏高原及周边区域的8个地形抬升情景, 并考虑地球轨道参数(强弱岁差和高低地轴倾角)组合, 开展了24组敏感性数值试验, 集中研究了地形抬升对轨道尺度欧亚内陆干旱和季风降水的调制作用。结果分析表明, 整体而言, 青藏高原区域地形的阶段性逐步抬升调制的欧亚大陆降水对岁差和地轴倾角的响应具有类似的分布特征, 但响应强度略有差异。此外, 不同地形抬升情景下, 降水对轨道强迫的响应呈现出区域差异。其中, 亚洲内陆干旱区是区域地形调制轨道强迫作用的高敏感区域, 尤其伊朗高原抬升有效强化了轨道导致的降水增加信号; 青藏高原中部、东部和北部的抬升则通过引导季风环流向北辐合加强, 增强了岁差和地轴倾角引起的北东亚季风降水幅度; 伊朗高原抬升有效地加强了中国黄土高原降水对地轴倾角的响应。这些试验结果揭示青藏高原是东亚夏季季风的轨道尺度变率的潜在影响因子, 这可为地质记录揭示的季风在轨道时间尺度上变率强化现象提供机制上的解释。

     

一个新的东亚冬季风强度指数及其强弱变化之大气环流场差异

文章提出了一个新的东亚冬季风强度指数,并以此为依据从1948～1999年中挑选出两组强弱冬季风年份,通过合成分析对大气环流场和海表温度场在强弱东亚冬季风年的差异进行了对比分析。结果表明:东亚冬季风强度变化不单纯受局地气候系统影响,而与北半球半球尺度上的大气环流异常紧密相连。相对于弱的情形,强东亚冬季风年份中国大陆中东部及其东部大部分海域在整个对流层盛行偏北风距平、乌拉尔阻高显著加强、欧洲大陆西部维持一个深厚的气旋性异常环流系统、西风带环流偏弱、200hPa层南亚高压偏弱;中国大陆、北极地区、蒙古国大部分地区、欧洲大陆西北部表面温度降低;我国大陆与北太平洋海平面气压差加大;东亚大槽加强。研究还揭示,强东亚冬季风年份对应于北大西洋涛动弱指数,北大西洋和北太平洋海温状况对同期东亚冬季风强弱有着显著的影响     

Variability of Monsoon Climate in East Asia at the End of the Last Glaciation

High-resolution paleomonsoon proxy records from peat and eolian sand–paleosol sequences at the desert–loess transition zone in China denote a rapid oscillation from cold–dry conditions (11,200–10,600¹⁴C yr B.P.) to cool–humid conditions (10,600–10,200¹⁴C yr B.P.), followed by a return to cold–dry climate (10,200–10,000¹⁴C yr B.P.). Variations in precipitation proxies suggest that significant climatic variability occurred in monsoonal eastern Asia during the Younger Dryas interval. Late-glacial climate in the Chinese desert–loess belt that lies downwind from Europe was strongly influenced by cold air from high latitudes and from the North Atlantic via the westerlies. The inferred precipitation variations were likely caused by variations in the strength of the Siberian high, which influenced the pressure gradient between land and ocean and therefore influenced the position of the East Asian monsoon front.     

洛川黄土记录的最近2500ka东亚冬夏季风变化周期

对厚约１４０ｍ的陕西洛川坡头村黄土剖面进行间距３～１０ｃｍ的系统采样,测量了全部样品的磁化率和粒度,选择〉３０μｍ颗粒百分含量和磁化率分别作东亚冬,夏季风强度变化的替代性指标,以新建立的时间标尺为基础,分析了最近２５００ｋａ以来东亚季风变化的周期特征。结果表明,第四纪东亚冬,夏季风变化时间序列包括含有１００ｋａ,４１ｋａ和２３ｋａ地球运动轨道要素变化的周期,同时包含有约８０ｋａ,５６ｋａ和３０ｋａ     

Holocene temperature fluctuations in the northern Tibetan Plateau

Arid Central Asia (ACA) lies on a major climatic boundary between the mid-latitude westerlies and the northwestern limit of the Asian summer monsoon, yet only a few high-quality reconstructions exist for its climate history. Here we calibrate a new organic geochemical proxy for lake temperature, and present a 45-yr-resolution temperature record from Hurleg Lake at the eastern margin of the ACA in the northern Tibetan Plateau. Combination with other proxy data from the same samples reveals a distinct warm–dry climate association throughout the record, which contrasts with the warm–wet association found in the Asian monsoon region. This indicates that the climatic boundary between the westerly and the monsoon regimes has remained roughly in the same place throughout the Holocene, at least near our study site. Six millennial-scale cold events are found within the past 9000 yr, which approximately coincide with previously documented events of northern high-latitude cooling and tropical drought. This suggests a connection between the North Atlantic and tropical monsoon climate systems, via the westerly circulation. Finally, we also observe an increase in regional climate variability after the mid-Holocene, which we relate to changes in vegetation (forest) cover in the monsoon region through a land-surface albedo feedback.     

第四纪时期东亚季风变化的动力机制

本文作者主张：古气候演化的动力机制研究应从动力因子和动力过程两个方面人手。通过对比东亚冬季风、夏季风、印度季风及全球冰量变化的时间特征和频率特征,我们得到以下认识：1）大致在过去0.8Ma这个时段,东亚冬、夏季风基本上具同相位、同周期的互为消长演化特征;2）东南季风演化具0.1Ma的主导周期,而印度季风变化则以较短周期为主;3）东亚冬、夏季风与全球冰量变化在时间范畴上可作很好的对比,尤其是这三者均含有主导性的0.1Ma周期。在此基础上,本文提出东亚季风演化的“全球冰量驱动模式”,并初步讨论了东亚季风变化对全球冰量变化响应的动力过程。     

末次冰盛期和全新世中期东亚地区水汽输送的模拟研究

利用国际古气候模拟比较计划最新第3阶段中9个气候模式针对末次冰盛期、13个气候模式针对全新世中期的数值试验数据,集中研究了这两个时期东亚地区的水汽输送变化。结果表明,相对于工业革命前期,末次冰盛期东亚地区冬季异常水汽输送主要来自跨赤道气流和西北太平洋,东亚大陆沿岸及其临近海域为主要的水汽异常辐合区,对应冬季净降水量增加,异常辐散区主要位于热带海洋和西北太平洋,净降水量减少;夏季,东亚地区异常水汽输送通量以辐散为主,大部分地区净降水量减少,对应东亚夏季风减弱。全新世中期东亚地区冬季水汽输送变化较弱,东南部及临近海域和赤道中太平洋为异常辐散区,不利于冬季净降水;夏季异常水汽输送分别来自热带中西太平洋广阔洋面和西北太平洋异常反气旋式环流西南侧,东亚大陆大部分地区为水汽异常辐合区,夏季净降水量增加,对应东亚夏季风增强。两个时期外强迫驱动下的经向温度梯度、海陆热力对比和大气含水量变化是上述冬、夏季东亚水汽输送异常的主因。

     

Late Holocene Asian monsoon variations recorded in Lake Rara sediment,western Nepal

The Himalayas are a key location for understanding centennial‐ to millennial‐scale variations in the Asian monsoon, yet few studies of the late Holocene have been conducted in this sensitive area. Direct evidence for shifts in monsoonal wind strength is often limited to marine proxy records, while terrestrial reconstructions (e.g. lake levels and spleothems) focus on precipitation. Here, we present the first evidence of terrestrial summer monsoon wind strength changes from Lake Rara, western Nepal, based on Mn/Ti ratios, a proxy for lake stratification. These data indicate a link between the Arabian Sea and the Himalayas, suggesting that centennial‐ to millennial‐scale changes in wind strength occurred synchronously. Distinct similarity is also observed between Lake Rara and the southern part of China, which may support previous suggestions that the southern part of China is influenced by Indian summer monsoon. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

树轮记录的西北季风边缘区干旱变化

祁连山东部位于亚洲季风西北边缘区,对气候变化十分敏感。由于该区位于半干旱区,降水的变化直接影响人类社会经济的发展,所以研究该区干旱变化情况及其机制非常重要。 利用采自祁连山东部西北季风边缘、地处半干旱区的吐鲁沟地区的油松树轮样芯,建立了树轮宽度年表,时间跨度为1866-2003AD。树轮宽度年表与气象因子相关分析结果显示树木生长主要响应生长季内的降水和干旱变化。该年表与附近区域利用树轮宽度重建的帕尔默干旱指数（PDSI）进行对比,结果显示严重的干旱时间发生在1920s-1930s、1966年、1974年、1982年和1990s和21世纪初。多窗谱分析研究表明,该区年表序列存在显著的2~4 a周期（P<0.05）,该周期与ENSO变率吻合,与在贺兰山、祁连山其他地区、兴隆山及贵清山研究结果一致,表明这些区域可能受共同气候因子的影响。     

Controls on the East Asian monsoon during the last glacial cycle,based on comparison between Hulu Cave and polar ice-core records

Previous studies have suggested a sound chronological correlation between the Hulu Cave record (East Asian monsoon) and Greenland ice-core records, which implies a dominant control of northern hemisphere climate processes on monsoon intensity. We present an objective, straightforward statistical evaluation that challenges this generally accepted paradigm for sub-orbital variability. We propose a more flexible, global interpretation, which takes into account a broad range of variability in the signal structures in the Hulu Cave and polar ice-core records, rather than a limited number of major transitions. Our analysis employs the layer-counted Greenland Ice-Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05), which was developed for Greenland records and has since been applied – via methane synchronisation – to the high-resolution δ¹⁸O_ice series from EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML). The GICC05 chronology allows these ice-core records to be compared to the U–Th dated Hulu Cave record within relatively narrow (～3%) bounds of age uncertainty. Following previous suggestions, our proposed interpretation suggests that the East Asian monsoon is influenced by a combination of northern hemisphere ‘pull’ (which is more intense during boreal warm periods), and southern hemisphere ‘push’ (which is more intense monsoon during austral cold periods). Our analysis strongly suggests a dominant control on millennial-scale monsoon variability by southern hemisphere climate changes during glacial times when the monsoon is weak overall, and control by northern hemisphere climate changes during deglacial and interglacial times when the monsoon is strong. The deduced temporally variable relationship with southern hemisphere climate records offers a statistically more plausible reason for the apparent coincidence of major East Asian monsoon transitions with northern hemisphere (Dansgaard–Oeschger, DO) climate events during glacial times, than the traditional a priori interpretation of strict northern hemisphere control.     

Possible reverse trend in Asian summer monsoon strength during the late Holocene

Holocene climate change is characterized as generally cooling in high latitudes and drying in tropical and Asian summer monsoonal regions, following the gradual decrease in northern hemisphere summer insolation over the last 12,000 years. However, some recent high-resolution, well-dated monsoon reconstructions seem to suggest an abnormal increase in Asian summer monsoon strength during the late Holocene, against the generally weakening Holocene trend. Here, we synthesize marine and terrestrial moisture records from Asian monsoonal regions that span most of the Holocene period. Late Holocene strengthening of Asian summer monsoon identified from a wealth of the synthesized monsoon records appears to be a robust feature, which warrants further consideration of its possible causes. The possible reverse trend in Asian summer monsoon strength preceding insolation minima seems to have also occurred during previous interglacial periods, based on speleothem records. We further show a similar late Holocene reverse trend in tropical hydrological changes, suggesting that the Asian summer monsoon behavior might be internally linked to the movement of the average position of the ITCZ and ENSO variability during the late Holocene. On the other hand, we suggest that even though several Holocene temperature records indeed show a reverse trend in the late Holocene, the overall evidence for a link between the late Holocene reverse trend in Asian summer monsoon and global temperature changes is insufficient. The reverse trend in Asian summer monsoon during the late Holocene is difficult to be explained with the traditional boreal insolation-driven view. We suggest that this phenomenon might be linked to austral summer insolation changes and/or greenhouse gas increase. However, we caution that additional paleoclimate reconstructions and model simulations are needed to systematically study the spatial pattern and understand underlying mechanism of the late Holocene reverse trend in Asian summer monsoon strength.     

南海晚第四纪陆源沉积:粒度组成、动力控制及反映的东亚季风演化

对南海北部MD05-2904孔、西部MD05-2901孔、南部MD05-2897孔的有孔虫氧同位素进行测定,建立了高分辨率的年代地层。对3个孔的陆源碎屑组分的粒度分布进行了测定和主成分因子分析,结果发现,南海北部陆坡（南部陆坡）的陆源碎屑沉积特征主要受单一的因子Fn（Fs）控制,它可以控制62%（59%）的粒度变化特征。与Fn密切相关的粒度组分为1.52～2.92μm和11.8～27.4μm,与Fs相关的粒度组分为<2.42μm和6.76～14.30μm。南海西部陆坡获得两个主控因子Fw1和Fw2,分别控制46%和32%的粒度变化特征,与Fw1相关的粒度组分为1.26～2.66μm和10.8～14.3μm,与Fw2相关的粒度组分为4.24～7.42μm和30.1～43.7μm。对敏感粒级的变化序列进行分析发现,北部的Fn与海平面升降作用紧密相关,呈现冰期/间冰期旋回尺度的周期性。而南部的Fs呈现高频的岁差周期波动,可能与夏季风演化引起的源区风化、河流搬运等的变化有关。南海西部的陆源沉积物主要来自南海的西南和北部两个地区,分别由东亚夏季风和冬季风驱动的洋流搬运,Fw1和Fw2恰恰代表了这两种动力控制。因此,Fw1和Fw2控制的粒度组成变化间接指示了东亚夏季风和冬季风的演化。研究认为,晚第四纪以来东亚夏季风受控于低纬区的夏季日射量的变化,呈现典型的岁差周期性,而冬季风主要受高纬冰盖变化驱动,呈冰期/间冰期旋回尺度的波动,这反映了东亚季风演化的双重驱动机制。