The music of the spheres and the prosaicness of statistical criteria: A response to B.L. Berry’s paper “Heliogeophysical and other natural processes,periods of their oscillations,and forecasts”

According to B.L. Berry’s “harmonic model,” any natural or social process is a superposition of several cosmic rhythms. The author assumes that stability of these rhythms allows prediction of earth phenomena over an unlimited time. We show that the statistical criteria supposedly substantiating the harmonic model were applied incorrectly. The initial data for the analysis were biased and selected incompetently; the adequacy of the methods used was not verified. Predictions of natural catastrophes (earthquakes, weather anomalies, etc.) and various social events according to Berry’s model are unsatisfactory. Statistics do not confirm that these predictions are at least slightly better than random guessing. Berry’s model is unacceptable; it is untenable both in detail and in general.     

The role of cosmic and ionospheric disturbances in global climatic changes and pipeline corrosion

Physical causes controlling the influence of the main cosmic factors on the state of the ionosphere and, further, on weather and climatic phenomena, including the global warming, are investigated. These investigations are based on the Rydberg excitation of the experimentally observed microwave radiation of the Earth’s ionosphere by energetic ionospheric electrons. This microwave radiation virtually freely penetrates into the lower atmosphere, providing channels for the influence of solar variability on terrestrial phenomena. The factors causing an anomalous wear of Russian pipeline systems are also analyzed, and the methods for reducing their rapid corrosion through taking into account the influence of heliogeomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances are described. Such investigations are supported by the space experiment on permanent monitoring of the factors controlling heliogeomagnetic activity, i.e., fluxes of ionizing radiation of the Sun and fluxes of electrons precipitating from the radiation belts.     

Parametric vertical coordinate formulation for multiscale, Boussinesq, and non-Boussinesq ocean modeling

Two physical parameters are introduced into the basic ocean equations to generalize numerical ocean models for various vertical coordinate systems and their hybrid features. The two parameters are formulated by combining three techniques: the arbitrary vertical coordinate system of Kasahara [Kasahara, A., 1974. Various vertical coordinate systems used for numerical weather prediction. Mon. Weather Rev. 102, 509–522], the Jacobian pressure gradient formulation of Song [Song, Y.T., 1998. A general pressure gradient formation for ocean models. Part I: Scheme design and diagnostic analysis. Mon. Weather Rev. 126 (12), 3213–3230], and a newly introduced parametric function that permits both Boussinesq (volume-conserving) and non-Boussinesq (mass-conserving) conditions. Based on this new formulation, a generalized modeling approach is proposed. Several representative oceanographic problems with different scales and characteristics––coastal canyon, seamount topography, non-Boussinesq Pacific Ocean with nested eastern Tropics, and a global ocean model––have been used to demonstrate the model’s capabilities for multiscale applications. The inclusion of non-Boussinesq physics in the topography-following ocean model does not incur computational expense, but more faithfully represents satellite-observed ocean-bottom-pressure data. Such a generalized modeling approach is expected to benefit oceanographers in solving multiscale ocean-related problems by using various coordinate systems on the same numerical platform.     

石家庄地区输电线路雷击事故发生的气象条件

为了研究石家庄地区输电线路雷击事故发生的气象条件,利用该地区1990—2018年输电线路雷击事故发生的详细资料和地面、探空气象资料,分析了输电线路雷击事故的时空变化,确定了容易发生输电线路雷击事故的天气系统配置和探空物理量阈值;通过输电线路雷击事故发生的气象条件,检验了2019—2020年输电线路雷击事故预报的准确性。结果表明:石家庄输电线路雷击事故主要发生在夏季傍晚前到前半夜,夏季发生概率明显高于春、秋季;输电线路雷击事故发生日数自西向东逐渐减少,集中发生在西部山区的井陉,其次是市区,井陉发生概率远高于其他地区;对流天气影响系统主要为高空槽型和冷涡型,探空物理量同时满足首要条件和附加条件时,引发输电线路雷击事故概率较高;输电线路雷击事故发生的气象条件在2019—2020年得到较好的预测检验,对防范雷击事故有一定指导意义。     

渤海波浪和潮汐风暴潮相互作用对波浪影响的数值研究

基于依赖波浪成长状态波令的表面风应力，提出了一个波浪和风暴潮潮汐运动相互作用的联合数值模式，实现了第三代波浪模式和三维风暴潮潮汐模式联合作用的数值研究，并结合渤海典型天气个例的研究，给出了渤海波浪和风暴潮潮汐相互作用对波浪影响的机制和大小量级的定量估计。研究表明，对不同天气过程，波浪和风暴潮潮汐相互作用对波浪影响的性质和大小不同；对强寒潮过程，对波浪影响主要由风暴潮所支配波高调制可达1m，在黄河口区一般达0．5m；对弱天气过程，对波浪影响主要由潮所控制，波高调制约在0．2m，联合作用模式给出的结果与实测更吻合。     

The development of a real-time port information system

A port information system was developed for Tampa Bay, FL, that provides data in real time. Current, water level, and weather systems measure various parameters from around the bay and report at 6-min intervals via a packet-modern-controlled telemetry system. A central receiving station and data acquisition system process the data and make it available in various formats. A voice data response system provides immediate access to the data via touchtone telephone. A voice processor is used to compose phrases that provide a user with environmental information based on the selection made from the voice menu. The design and development of all aspects of the system are described. This system has proven to be a valuable asset to the local and regional marine community, providing information for safe navigation, oil spills, search and rescue, fishing, and existing weather conditions     

Shielding in biology and biophysics: Methodology,dosimetry, interpretation

An interdisciplinary review of the publications on the shielding of organisms by different materials is presented. The authors show that some discrepancies between the results of different researchers might be attributed to methodological reasons, including purely biological (neglect of rhythms) and technical (specific features of the design or material of the screen) ones. In some cases, an important factor is the instability of control indices due to the variations in space weather. According to the modern concept of biological exposure to microdoses, any isolation of a biological object by any material necessarily leads to several simultaneous changes in environmental parameters, and this undermines the principle of “all other conditions being equal” in the classical differential scheme of an experiment. The shielding effects of water solution are universally recognized and their influence is to be observed for all organisms. Data on the exposure of living organisms to weak combined magnetic fields and on the influence of space weather enabled the development of theoretical models generally explaining the effect of shielding for bioorganisms. Ferromagnetic shielding results in changes of both the static magnetic field and the field of radio waves within the area protected by the screen. When screens are nonmagnetic, changes are due to the isolation from the radio waves. In both cases, some contribution to the fluctuations of measured parameters can be made by variations in the level of ionizing radiation.     

Probabilistic modeling of ship powering performance using full-scale operational data

The energy efficiency of ocean-going vessels can be increased through various operational considerations, such as improved cargo arrangements and weather routing. The first step toward the goal of maximizing the energy efficiency is to analyze how the ship's powering performance changes under different operational settings and weather conditions. However, existing analytical models and empirical methods have limitations in reliably estimating the powering performance of full-scale ships in real operating conditions. In this study, machine learning techniques are employed to estimate the powering performance of a full-scale ship by constructing regression models using the ship's operational data. In order to minimize the risk of overfitting in the regression process, domain knowledge based on physical principles is combined into the regression models. Also, the uncertainty of the estimated performance is evaluated with consideration of the environmental uncertainties. The obtained regression models can be used to predict the ship speed and engine power under different operational settings and weather conditions.     

Space-time processing, environmental-acoustic effects

The authors examine the subject of space-time processing and review fundamental environmental effects and their influence on arrays in the deep ocean sound channel. Space-time transforms are reviewed to demonstrate the analogy between spatial and temporal properties to stress the importance of convolution and matched field processing. A criterion is presented by which the resolution of such measurement systems could be calculated. The static source-receiver case is shown to be influenced by the randomness in signal phase due to scattering. Calculations and data are used to show the importance of multipath effects on the relative gain of line array measurement systems and the difficulties encountered for the determination of coherence lengths. Single path coherence lengths were found to be large and predictable using an environmental parameter and the Beran-McCoy mutual coherence functional form. However, multipath effects appeared to be dominant. The temporal fluctuation problem is briefly introduced to stress the fact that for relative source-receiver speeds of 1.5 m/s (3 knots) or greater, the fluctuations are dominated by the changes in the multipath arrivals     

巴伦支海海冰异常对初夏大气环流和东亚天气影响的数值研究

本文利用在ＮＣＡＲ气候模式ＣＣＭ１（Ｒ１５Ｌ１２）基础上改变为用于长期数值预报的ＣＣＭ１（Ｒ１５Ｌ７），以１９９１年５月２日１２时（ＧＭＴ）国家气象中心客观分析资料为初始场，分别以巴伦支海附近海域不同的海冰边界作为下垫面极冰条件，进行了相应相应的月长期数值预报试验。以研究该海区海冰对大气环流特别是东亚天气的影响。试验〈Ａ〉以接近于９１年５月平均冰边界作为极冰边界条件，试验〈Ｂ〉和试验〈Ｃ〉分别对应     

1321号台风“蝴蝶”强度变化特征和影响因素分析

利用NCEP/NCAR全球再分析格点资料（空间分辨率1°×1°）、台风实况资料及海南省气象台站观测资料,选取1321号台风＂蝴蝶＂为研究个例,从天气学原理高低空形势及动力、热力学物理量等多角度分析了＂蝴蝶＂强度演变特征及影响因素.研究结果表明,副热带高压与高空西风槽是影响此次台风的主要大尺度天气系统,弱冷空气南侵、南海海温偏高及越赤道气流强盛是＂蝴蝶＂迅速加强的重要原因.西风槽引导弱冷空气南侵使得台风外围环流气压梯度增加,斜压不稳定状态加剧;南海海温达到29℃,海温偏高使台风区域大气层结降低,深热对流发展;105°E越赤道气流强盛为台风提供了充沛水汽和能量.三者共同作用促使台风强度突然增强.另外,低层涡度、高层散度、湿位涡及水汽通量等物理量能够较好地表征＂蝴蝶＂强度变化特征.低层辐合流入、高层辐散流出为台风的加强提供了动力条件;湿位涡下负上正表明大气热力层结不稳定;水汽通量增加表明水汽条件充足.良好的动力条件、热力条件与水汽条件共同作用,使得＂蝴蝶＂在短时间内迅速加强为强台风.     

非洲东南侧海域春季的几种危险天气系统

本文利用执行任务累积的气象资料、NCEP和NWW3海浪模式资料,对非洲大陆东南侧海域春季的几种危险天气系统及其造成的大浪区进行了分析,初步揭示了这些危险天气系统的成因及其发展和变化规律。     

河北省沿海风暴潮特征及成因分析

以秦皇岛、京唐港、曹妃甸、黄骅4个验潮站的实测潮位和逐时风的数据为基础,以2013年河北省政府发布的风暴潮四色警戒潮位值为标准,统计了2008-2017年10 a河北省沿海的风暴潮过程,从警报级别、区域分布、时间分布、天气系统、经济损失5个方面分析河北省沿海风暴潮特征,并从地形、天文潮与天气系统配合、海平面上升、全球变暖引发的气候异常4个方面分析了影响河北省沿海风暴潮的成因,分析得出:受天气系统的影响,7-10月是河北省风暴潮高发时段,且由于河北省岸线分布特点,沧州市沿海受到风暴潮影响的次数最多,唐山和秦皇岛次之,沧州和唐山地区的风暴潮过程多由东北向大风引起,而秦皇岛地区的风暴潮过程多由东南向风引起。     

Influence of weather-climatic conditions on biospheric processes

The significance of meteorological processes and phenomena in the biosphere functioning is revealed. The influence of various weather conditions on human health is considered; the factors and mechanisms of their action are described. The impact of meteorological processes on animals is discussed and concrete examples of such impacts are presented. The influence of meteorological processes and phenomena on plants at different stages of their life (pollination, growth, ripening, transport of seeds, damage, and death) and on some abiotic natural components is shown. It is inferred that weather-climatic conditions have a great influence on biospheric processes.     

聊城市人工增雨效果统计方法及计算结果分析

利用聊城市和菏泽市1963～2007年的降水观测资料和天气形势图,采用历史区域回归试验和天气系统分类回归方案效果检验法,对2004～2007年4年间聊城市人工增雨作业的效果进行了计算分析,为聊城市人工增雨作业选择有利的作业时机和天气条件提供一定的依据.结果表明:1)采用天气系统分类统计的方法可以有效提高区域雨量的相关性,从而提高了统计分析的效率;2)聊城市实施人工增雨作业比较有利的时节是6月,催化效果最理想的天气系统是南方气旋;3)人工增雨效果的最大值在不同的天气系统条件下对应着不同的自然雨强区间.     

Numerical simulation of towed cables

A numerical method for the dynamic simulation of towed cables is presented. The cable is loaded by fluid drag, tension, gravity and buoyancy, including the effects of weights and floats. The development of a cable can be simulated as well as the separation of a cable under excessive load and the subsequent behavior of the broken parts. The system is constructed from a set of generic elements representing such items as cable or rope strands, knots (reference points on rope sections), kinks (sliding reference points on cable sections that change length), cable ends and winches. A mathematical graph organizes these elements in a general and flexible fashion: it allows construction of complex systems and permits structural redefinition during the simulation. The nodes of the graph coincide with the various reference points of the problem, at which physical parameters are lumped and to which sets of ordinary differential equations are associated that define the motions of the points. The links of the graph describe the physical connections between the nodes. Application of new methods for solving stiff, sparse systems of coupled ordinary differential equations enables efficient simulation of snap-loads and other severe events. Results are presented that compare quantitatively with laboratory measurements. A further example shows the behavior of a breaking cable that is qualitatively reasonable.     

灾害天气对日照市电力事故的影响研究

利用雷雨、大风等灾害天气资料和电力事故历史数据资料,分析了电力事故发生的时空分布特征及其与雷雨、大风、日平均气温等天气要素之间的关系。进而利用事件概率回归(regression estimation of event probability,REEP)和Logistic回归分析方法,得到了日照市电力事故发生概率与雷雨、大风和日平均气温之间关系的预警模型。研究结果表明:1)雷雨、大风是造成日照市电力事故的重要气象因素。2)雷雨、大风和高温等灾害天气对电力事故的发生虽都有促成作用,但影响能力存在较大差距。3)两种回归分析模型对因子和变量之间关系均有较好的拟合效果,相较而言,REEP模型更为直观,Logistic回归分析方法更为客观,适用性更强。4)回归分析结果建立在客观资料基础上,回归模型具有准确性、实用性,可为电力事故预警发布系统提供理论和技术支持。     

Sensitivity of large-scale atmospheric analyses to humidity observations and its impact on the global water cycle and tropical and extratropical weather systems in ERA40

Reanalysis data obtained from data assimilation are increasingly used for diagnostic studies of the general circulation of the atmosphere, for the validation of modelling experiments and for estimating energy and water fluxes between the Earth surface and the atmosphere. Because fluxes are not specifically observed, but determined by the data assimilation system, they are not only influenced by the utilized observations but also by model physics and dynamics and by the assimilation method. In order to better understand the relative importance of humidity observations for the determination of the hydrological cycle, in this paper we describe an assimilation experiment using the ERA40 reanalysis system where all humidity data have been excluded from the observational data base. The surprising result is that the model, driven by the time evolution of wind, temperature and surface pressure, is able to almost completely reconstitute the large-scale hydrological cycle of the control assimilation without the use of any humidity data. In addition, analysis of the individual weather systems in the extratropics and tropics using an objective feature tracking analysis indicates that the humidity data have very little impact on these systems. We include a discussion of these results and possible consequences for the way moisture information is assimilated, as well as the potential consequences for the design of observing systems for climate monitoring. It is further suggested, with support from a simple assimilation study with another model, that model physics and dynamics play a decisive role for the hydrological cycle, stressing the need to better understand these aspects of model parametrization.     

Asymptotic performance of a pulse-to-pulse incoherent Doppler sonar in an oceanic environment

Active Doppler sonar systems are gaining popularity as a method to profile remotely the oceanic velocity field. Estimation of the variance with which an ideal single.beam sonar system measures relative Doppler motion is the subject of this paper. Theoretical formulations, simulated reverberation data, and sea data are considered to determine this variance. The sea data considered in this paper were selected carefully to avoid performance degrading physical/instrumental phenomena and bias corrected to remove further instrumental effects. Asymptotic performance, determined in this research, is realized when instrumental and physical phenomena do not measurably affect experimental performance. Oceanic and simulated data sets are processed with several velocity-estimation algorithms that are implemented in existing sonar systems. These algorithms are compared against each other and the velocity-estimation standard-deviation results tabulated. The algorithms are shown to possess similar performance characteristics when simulated, and sea data are processed in spite of the fact that some of these algorithms are suboptimal from a theoretical viewpoint. The results of this study show that the asymptotic performance of the Doppler system examined is approximately 25 percent above a theoretical lower bound.     

进入渤海的热带气旋路径特点分析

热带气旋是夏季影响渤海的灾害性天气系统之一。其影响路径主要有三类，各类路径在影响时前期中高纬500hPa高空环流形势及夏季西太平洋副热带高压特征指数有显著差异。