A geological model for the Colfiorito earthquakes (September-October 1997, central Italy)

In this study, surface and subsurface geologicaldata are integrated with seismological data in orderto reconstruct a structural model for theSeptember-October 1997 Colfiorito earthquakes. Theseismic sequence is mainly controlled by two majorSW-dipping normal faults outcropping in the area (M.Pennino-M. Prefoglio and M.Civitella-Preci faults).The activated faults detach, at depth, on a commoneast-dipping low-angle normal fault, the AltotiberinaFault (AF). The AF is interpreted as the base of anactive hangingwall block which is stretching towardNE. The decrease in maximum depth of the earthquakefoci from the Colfiorito area (about 8 km) to theSellano area (about 6 km), suggested by the available seismological data, could be related to the eastward-deepening geometry of the AFdetachment. The seismic fault planes, inferred fromfocal mechanisms and aftershock distributions, arecharacterised by a moderate dip (average 40^°)toward SW, which appears to be independent from thepresence of pre-existing thrust planes.     

Quaternary faults and seismicity in the Umbro-Marchean Apennines (Central Italy): evidence from the 1997 Colfiorito earthquake

Analyses of structural and geomorphological data combined with remote sensing interpretation confirm previous knowledge on the existence of an extensional Quaternary tectonic regime in the Colfiorito area (Umbro-Marchean Central Apennines). This is characterized by a maximum principal axis of finite strain oriented approx. NE–SW, which is the result of a progressive deformation process due to pure and radial extension. Surface geological data, the crustal tectonic setting (reconstructed using a CROP 03 seismic reflection profile), and seismological data relative to the autumn 1997 Colfiorito earthquake sequence constrain the following seismotectonic model. We interpret the seismogenic SW-dipping low-angle normal fault pictured by seismic data as an inverted thrust ramp located in the basement at depth between 5 and 10 km. The surface projection of this seismogenic structure defines a crustal box within which high-angle normal faults are responsible for the deformation of the uppermost crust. The regional patterns of pre-existing basement thrusts therefore control the seismotectonic zoning of the area that cannot be directly related to the high-angle normal fault systems which cut through different crustal boxes; the latter system records, in fact, re-shear along pre-existing normal faults. Moreover, Quaternary slip-rates relative to high-angle normal faults in the Central Apennines are closely related to seismic hazard within each crustal box.     

New geomorphic evidence for anticlinal growth driven by blind-thrust faulting along the northern Marche coastal belt (central Italy)

The Northern Marche coastal belt is characterised by a series of NW-SE trending, NE verging folds forming the easternmost edge of the Apennines thrust front. Several geomorphic features suggest that the folds are still growing and hence that the thrust front is active. The occurrence of several historical and instrumental earthquakes (e.g. 1672, 1690, 1786, 1875, 1916, 1930, 1972, all having M_e 5.2) suggests that the thrust faults are also seismogenic.We performed a geomorphological analysis to identify and characterise the faults driving the active folds. Our approach assumes that anomalous drainage patterns and deformed Middle-Late Pleistocene alluvial and coastal terraces are indicators of the vertical component of tectonic strain. We identified, mapped and correlated with sea-level fluctuations a sequence of alluvial and coastal terraces. Longitudinal profiles of six rivers (Conca, Foglia, Metauro, Cesano, Misa, and Esino) show that terraces (1) consistently converge downstream, suggesting that they result from regional uplift that dies out near the coast, and (2) some are slightly warped where they cross anticline axes. We interpreted as coastal terraces several land-surface remnants arranged parallel to the present coastline. Lower remnants clearly top off gently landward-tilted coastal deposits. Reconstructed coastal terraces also seem to be tectonically warped.Our results help characterise the geometry and segmentation of a system that generated the largest earthquakes of the region and suggest the loci of potential seismic gaps. We conclude that the earthquake potential of the densely populated northern Marche coastal belt may be substantially higher than currently estimated.     

On intermediate-term earthquake prediction in central Italy

The Time of Increased Probability (TIP) for the occurrence of a strong earthquake is determined in Central Italy. This is done with an algorithm that has been successfully applied in other regions of the world (algorithm CN, from the initials of California and Nevada, where the first diagnoses of TIPs were made). The use of normalized functions allows direct application of the orginal algorithm to the new region being studied, without anyad hoc adjustment of the parameters.Retrospective analysis carried on until 1986 shows that TIPs occupy 26 percent of the total time considered and precede four out of five strong earthquakes. Forward monitoring indicates the possible existence of a TIP started in May 1988.Several tests indicate that the results obtained are quite stable, even when using catalogues from different agencies. Apart from obvious practical interest, this research is essential for the worldwide investigation of self-similarity in the origin of strong earthquakes.     

Structural geomorphology,active faulting and slope deformations in the epicentre area of the MW 7.0, 1857, Southern Italy earthquake

In tectonically active domains, fault propagation processes are revealed by landforms. A characteristic morphological feature of exposed active faults is the occurrence of triangular facets. Triangle-shaped landforms morphologically similar to fault-related triangular facets result from erosion of moderately-to-steeply dipping strata or layered successions along fold limbs and are known as flatirons. Triangular facets and flatirons may commonly coexist in mountain chains resulting from the superposition of recent extensional faulting on inherited fold-and-thrust architecture. In these settings analysis of flatirons and triangular facets is not trivial and may result in geomorphologic misinterpretations, hence undermine the interpretations of the geological structure and related deformation history. Here we show that active fault lineaments can be discriminate by inherited morpho-structure. We present the combined results of photo-geological and field survey carried out along well-exposed triangular shaped landforms located in the seismically active Upper Agri River Valley of the Southern Apennine. We found that triangular shaped landforms develop along a major fold back-limb, the Mt. Lama western slope, making it possible to unequivocally interpret these as flatirons. Downslope, Mt. Lama back limb is affected by a large deep-sited landslide whose scarp bound the flatirons and mimics a Holocene fault scarp. This inference appears significant, since the investigated landforms were interpreted by many authors as triangular facets related to an active normal fault, located at its foot, responsible for large historical earthquakes (i.e., the 1857 earthquake). We provide new criteria to discriminate morphologic convergence in tectonically active domains, with consequences for the regional geological interpretation, and for the assessment of geological hazards.     

Detachments and normal faulting in the Marche fold-and-thrust belt (central Apennines, Italy): inferences on fluid migration paths

In the outermost domains of the central Apennines fold-and-thrust belt, the structural architecture of the late Miocene–early Pliocene contractional edifice was controlled by competence contrasts in the Calcareous–Marly sequences of Mesozoic–Tertiary age, and by a different state of lithification of the rock units at the onset of deformation. Field data on relative chronology of outcrop-scale structures (cleavage, veins, faults, folds) are presented for the three largest thrust-ramp anticlines of the Marche fold-and-thrust belt: Monte Gorzano, Acquasanta and Montagna dei Fiori-Montagnone. The data show that the timing and geometry of deformation structures differ for: (1) the lower Calcareous interval of late Triassic–early Cretaceous age (LCI) bounded on top by the intermediate detachment (ID) of the Fucoidi Marls; (2) the upper Calcareous–Marly interval (UCMI) of late Cretaceous–Oligocene age; (3) the uppermost detachment zone (UDZ) of lower–middle Miocene age; (4) the topmost Messinian Flysch sequence (FS). In the UDZ early episodes of deformation are manifested by compaction of a poorly lithified sequence followed by pervasive development of layer-parallel pressure-solution cleavage. Reverse faults ramp obliquely across the stratigraphic sequence, and are coated by multiple overgrowths of calcite fibers. These structures are deformed by large, eastward-verging asymmetric folds with N–S axial trends, and are cut by late generations of reverse faults. Normal faults started to develop in the fold backlimbs during the final stages of shortening, in middle–late Pliocene times. These early normal faults were reactivated during episodes of late Pliocene–Pleistocene extensional downfaulting, and are now superposed on the compressional edifice. The UDZ is interpreted to have temporarily sealed the upward escape of fluids during the initial episodes of shortening. Pervasive interlayer flow in the poorly lithified sequence was responsible for development of broken beds and scaly fabrics, similar to those observed in accretionary prisms. Only in the latest stages of deformation did propagation of discrete faults provide an interconnected pathway for fluid migration, until the final offset of the UDZ. The structural relationships suggest that fluids trapped within the fold cores and sealed by the UDZ were finally driven upwards due to progressive disruption of the thrust belt by late normal faults of late Pliocene to Pleistocene and Holocene age. Large-scale fluid migration along structurally-controlled pathways was enhanced by the strong components of uplift consequent to the final stages of deformation in the Marche fold-and-thrust belt, and was eventually associated with episodes of normal seismic faulting.     

Carbon dioxide and radon gas hazard in the Alban Hills area (central Italy)

The sudden and catastrophic, or slow and continuous, release at surface of naturally occurring toxic gases like CO₂, H₂S and Rn poses a serious health risk to people living in geologically active regions. In general this problem receives little attention from local governments, although public concern is raised periodically when anomalous toxic-gas concentrations suddenly kill humans or livestock. For example, elevated CO₂ concentrations have been linked to the death of at least 10 people in the central Italian region of Lazio over the last 20 years, while it was the CO₂ asphyxiation of 30 cows in a heavily populated area near Rome in 1999 which prompted the present soil-gas study into the distribution of the local health risk. A detailed geochemical survey was carried out in an area of about 4 km² in the Ciampino and Marino districts, whereby a total of 274 soil-gas samples were collected and analysed for more than 10 major and trace gas species. Data were then processed using both statistical and geostatistical methods, and the resulting maps were examined in order to highlight areas of elevated risk. General trends of elevated CO₂ and Rn concentrations imply the presence of preferential pathways (i.e. faults and fractures) along which deep gases are able to migrate towards the surface. The CO₂ and Rn anomalous trends often correspond to and are usually elongated parallel to the Apennine mountain range, the controlling structural feature in central Italy. Because of this fundamental anisotropy in the factors controlling the soil-gas distribution, it was found that a geostatistical approach using variogram analysis allowed for a better interpretation of the data. With regard to the health risk to local inhabitants, it was found that although some high risk areas had been zoned as parkland, others had been heavily developed for residential purposes. For example, many new houses were found to have been built on ground which has soil-gas CO₂ concentrations of more than 70% and radon values of more than 250 kBq m⁻³. It is recommended that land-use planners incorporate soil-gas and/or gas flux measurements in environmental assessments in areas of possible risk (i.e. volcanic or structurally active areas).     

2009年意大利中部阿奎拉地震DInSAR同震位移的有限断层反演

根据环境卫星Envisat和COSMO—SkyMed模型（为同震位错研究而首次设计的X波段反演干涉图）的DInSAR干涉图,确定了2009年4月6日阿奎拉Mw=6．3级地震时激发的断层几何形状及运动特征。我们的主震最佳拟合解为一个约16km长、12km宽的正断层,存在小的右旋分量,向西南倾斜47°,最大滑动约90cm。虽然地震位错可能只有1km深,但是断层面的上倾投影与标绘的帕加尼卡-南德米特里奥断层的北段相符合,在现场观察到了该断层地表破裂的迹线。该断层在现有震源目录中的缺失表明,需要对具体的地表和地下进行进一步的地质和地球物理勘测,以便对局部规模的地震危险性做出更准确的评估。     

Active tectonics and seismicity in the area of the 1997 earthquake sequence in central Italy: A short review

A first tentative comparison between the structural framework related to the active tectonics and the long-term seismicity of the Umbria–Marche Apennines (affected by the 1997 seismic sequence) has provided some insight for discussing the seismotectonic characteristics of the area. This Apennine sector is affected by 15 to 20-km-long active fault systems, consisting of minor fault-segments. Each of these fault-segments may be responsible for earthquakes characterised by magnitudes ranging between 5.5 and 6.0 (such as those occurred in 1599, 1730, 1838, 1859, 1979). However, the occurrence of one large-magnitude event (1703, Ms = 6.7) and of seismic sequences (1747–1751; 1997–1998) indicate that an entire fault system may be activated suddenly (at least in the southern part of the investigated area) or during seismic crises which may last many months. The comparison between the active faulting framework and the long-term seismicity also indicates that no significant earthquakes may be related to the Mt. Vettore Fault System since 1000 AD.     

近断层地震动的基本特征

初步分析了近断层速度脉冲的成因和特点,主要包括方向性效应、滑冲效应和上盘效应,并通过集集地震中27个近断层强震台的脉冲记录分析了断层破裂方向和滑移大小对地面运动峰值速度的影响。采用最小二乘法对速度脉冲的分布范围进行了回归分析,大于50 cm/s的速度脉冲主要聚集在断层距为10 km的近断层区域。对不同区域的三分量平均速度反应谱进行统计分析,表明近断层脉冲型地震动具有较大的特征周期和谱值,其中在垂直于断层走向的水平分量上尤为显著,这与断层剪切位错辐射效应的特征基本相符。针对脉冲型地震造成近断层地质灾害频发的现象,由共振效应分析了速度脉冲对边坡岩体的影响。近断层速度脉冲的研究可能对防震减灾、地震预警、震害评估有一定的参考意义。     

Archaeoseismic evidence for a Late Roman earthquake in the Crotone area (Ionian Calabria, Southern Italy): Seismotectonic implications

The earthquakes of Calabria are among the strongest in the whole Mediterranean, and they all occurred between the disruptive sequences of 1638 and 1908 (6.7 ≤ M ≤ 7.2). Recent paleoseismological studies show that the return time of these events on their causative fault are larger than 1 ky, thus making ancient earthquakes not recognizable through ‘conventional’ historical research. On the other hand, in those areas characterized by highly erodible deposits, the identification and paleoseismic trenching of active seismogenetic faults has remained a challenge. In order to overcome these issues, we took an archaeoseismological approach for casting light on earthquake occurrence in one of these regions, i.e., the SE area of central Ionian Calabria (Marchesato region). The extensive traces of simultaneous and abrupt collapses in the Roman settlement of Capo Colonna (in the area of the sixth and fifth b.c. sanctuary of Hera Lacinia, near the town of Crotone) are evidence of a disruptive earthquake, which occurred possibly in the third century a.d. To the same event we ascribe the definitive collapse of the Hera Lacinia temple. Considering the seismotectonic framework of the region, this event could be tentatively associated with the active fault system which cuts from NW to SE the whole Sila massif and its Ionian slope, and which should be responsible for all the others known M > 6 earthquakes in the area.     

Active faulting offshore SE Spain (Alboran Sea): Implications for earthquake hazard assessment in the Southern Iberian Margin

The southern margin of the Iberian Peninsula hosts the convergent boundary between the European and African Plates. The area is characterised by low to moderate magnitude shallow earthquakes, although large historical events have also occurred. In order to determine the possible sources of these events, we recently acquired swath-bathymetry, TOBI sidescan sonar and high-resolution seismic data on the Almería Margin (Eastern Alboran Sea). The new dataset reveals the offshore continuation of the NE–SW trending Carboneras Fault, a master fault in the Eastern Betic Shear Zone, and its associated structures (N150 and NS faults). These structures are active since they cut the Late Quaternary sedimentary units. The submarine Carboneras Fault zone is 100 km long, 5–10 km wide, and is divided into two N045 and N060 segments separated by an underlapping restraining stepover. Geomorphic features typically found in subaerial strike-slip faults, such as deflected drainage, water gaps, shutter ridges, pressure ridges and “en echelon” folds suggest a strike-slip motion combined with a vertical component along the submarine Carboneras Fault. Considering the NNW–SSE regional shortening axis, a left-lateral movement is deduced for the Carboneras Fault, whereas right-lateral and normal components are suggested for the associated N150 and NS faults, respectively. The offshore portion of this fault is at least twice as long as its onshore portion and together they constitute one of the longest structures in the southeastern Iberian Margin. Despite the fact that present day seismicity in the Almería margin seems to be associated with the N150 to NS faults, the Carboneras Fault is a potential source of large magnitude (M_w ∼7.2) events. Hence, the Carboneras Fault zone could pose a significant earthquake and tsunami hazard to the coasts of Spain and North Africa, and should therefore be considered in any hazard re-evaluation.     

Aseismic faulting following the 1973 Nemuro-oki earthquake,Hokkaido, Japan (a retrospective study)

Tidal records at Hanasaki, southeastern Hokkaido, are analysed to clarify the post-seismic crustal vertical movement in the 1973 Nemuro-oki, Japan, earthquake. The result shows that the post-seismic uplift, as speculated byKasahara (1975), terminated in late 1975 and reverted to the previous rate of rapid subsidence of about 1 cm/yr. Ceasing of the post-seismic uplift, which occurred much earlier than previously speculated, could be explained by supplementary mechanisms, such as frictional resistance against creeping at the fault surface. This unexpected mode of movement, however, raises a new question about the accumulation of tectonic movements in this district. Since the subsidence rate extrapolated from geomorphological data for the past several thousand years is almost one order of magnitude lower than the recent rate as mentioned above, we have to provide some alternative explanation for the discrepancy between the two rates. In other words, simple repetition of co-, post- and inter-seismic movements in seismic cycles due to plate subduction, must be modified in this district. Several possible modifications to the subduction process are suggested, and a brief discussion of vertical movements expected in each case is given.     

Seismic microzonation studies for the city of Ragusa (Italy)

The seismic history of the city of Ragusa (Italy), the geotechnical characterisation of the subsoil and the site response analysis should be correctly evaluated for the definition of the Seismic Geotechnical Hazard of the city of Ragusa, through geo-settled seismic microzoning maps. Basing on the seismic history of the city of Ragusa, the following earthquake scenarios have been considered: the “Val di Noto” earthquake of January 11, 1693 (with intensity X–XI on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=7.41 and epicentral distance of about 53 km); the “Etna” earthquake of February 20, 1818 (with intensity IX on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=6.23 and epicentral distance of about 64 km); the Vizzini earthquake of April 13, 1895 (with intensity I=VII–VIII on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=5.86 and epicentral distance of about 26 km); the “Modica” earthquake of January 23, 1980 (with intensity I=V–VI on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=4.58 and epicentral distance of about 10 km); the “Sicilian” earthquake of December 13, 1990 (with intensity I=VII on MCS scale, magnitude M_W=5.64 and epicentral distance of about 50 km). Geotechnical characterisation has been performed by in situ and laboratory tests, with the definition of shear wave velocity profiles in the upper 30 m of soil. Soil response analyses have been evaluated for about 120 borings location by some non-linear 1-D models. Finally the seismic microzonation of the city of Ragusa has been obtained in terms of maps with different peak ground acceleration at the surface; shaking maps for the central area of the city of Ragusa were generated via GIS for the earthquake scenarios.     

Damage assessment of fortresses after the 2012 Emilia earthquake (Italy)

The medieval fortresses are a very common and distinctive type among the Emilian historical constructions and the earthquake of May 20 and 29, 2012 highlighted their high vulnerability. Starting from the analysis of the geometrical and constructive features, the interpretation of their seismic vulnerability has been based on an accurate damage assessment and supported by the numerical results of typical configurations. An abacus of recurring seismic damage mechanisms in fortresses has been proposed: it in particular concerns the towers and their interaction with the fortress perimeter walls. Moreover, the seismic response of the most important fortresses in the epicentral area has been described referring to their historical notes, the recent interventions and their influence on the seismic damage.     

Empirical site-specific response-spectra correction factors for the Gubbio basin (central Italy)

Providing quantitative microzonation results that can be taken into account in urban land-use plans is a challenging task that requires collaborative efforts between the seismological and engineering communities. In this study, starting from the results obtained by extensive geophysical and seismological investigations, we propose and apply an approach to the Gubbio basin (Italy) that can be easily implemented for cases of moderate-to-low ground motion and that takes into account not only simple 1D, but also more complicated 3D effects.     

The Campania-Lucania (southern Italy) earthquake of 23 November 1980

We present the main seismological results of our study of the Campania-Lucania earthquake of 23 November 1980. A complete set of far field and local data has been analysed. From long-period body waves data we determine the fault plane solution (φ₁ = 140°,δ₁ = 60°,φ₂ = 75°,δ₂ = 54°), a depth of 15 km and calculate a seismic moment of 6 × 10²⁵ dyne cm and a source duration of 6 s. From data of a local network deployed immediately after the event we determine aftershock locations: they are aligned in a direction NW-SE that fit extremely well with the focal solution determined above. We can choose as fault plane the plane striking 140° and dipping at 60° and the event is a normal event with a large component of left-lateral strike slip. The source area evaluated from this aftershock distribution 14 km × 40 km is quite suitable for an earthquake of a seismic moment of 6 × 10²⁵ dyne cm.     

Frequency relationship for seismic Qβ of central southern Italy from accelerograms for the Irpinia earthquake (1980)

The frequency dependence of Q_β for seismic waves in a distance range with a maximum of 150 km from the epicentre of the Irpinia earthquake of November 23, 1980 has been sought using displacement spectral ratios computed from strong-motion accelerograms recorded in the region. The method has been applied to calculate the behaviour of Q_β as a function of frequency in the band 0.1–25 Hz, and to investigate whether azimuthal variations appear in seismic Q_β for the lithosphere in central southern Italy. The same result is obtained using data from stations in western south Italy as using data from eastern south Italy, namely,

$\text{Q}{}_{\mathrm{\beta }}\text{(f) = 40f (}\text{Hz}\text{)}$

The linear relationship suggest that apparent Q_β depends more on the scale of heterogeneity of the lithosphere, affecting reflection and scattering mechanisms, than on intrinsic energy losses related to the anelasticity of the materials through which the seismic waves propagate.The existence of a peak in Q_β^?1 has been investigated in the low-frequency band (0.1–2.5 Hz) using a higher resolution power. A stable result in this low-Q_β zone is not possible on the basis of the available data: only in six Q_β(f) profiles does an evident minimum exist, between 0.2 and 1 Hz, while in nine cases the curves are monotonically increasing from the lowest observable frequencies; a further nine cases appear of uncertain interpretation.