The astronomical theory of climatic change on Mars

We examine the response of Martian climate to changes in solar energy deposition caused by variations of the Martian orbit and obliquity. We systematically investigate the seasonal cycles of carbon dioxide, water, and dust to provide a complete picture of the climate for various orbital configurations. We find that at low obliquity (15°) the atmospheric pressure will fall below 1 mbar; dust storms will cease; thick permanent CO₂ caps will form; the regolith will release CO₂; and H₂O polar ice sheets will develop as the permafrost boundaries move poleward. At high obliquity (35°) the annual average polar temperature will increase by about 10°K, slightly desorbing the polar regolith and causing the atmospheric pressure to increase by not more than 10 to 20 mbar. Summer polar ground temperatures as high as 273°K will occur. Water ice caps will be unstable and may disappear as the equilibrium permafrost boundary moves equatorward. However, at high eccentricity, polar ice sheets will be favored at one pole over the other. At high obliquity dust storms may occur during summers in both hemispheres, independent of the eccentricity cycle. Eccentricity and longitude of perihelion are most significant at modest obliquity (25°). At high eccentricity and when the longitude of perihelion is close to the location of solstice hemispherical asymmetry in dust-storm generation and in polar ice extent and albedo will occur.The systematic examination of the relation of climate and planetary orbit provides a new theory for the formation of the polar laminae. The terraced structure of the polar laminae originates when eccentricity and/or obliquity variations begin to drive water ice off the dusty permanent H₂O polar caps. Then a thin (meters) layer of consolidated dust forms on top of a dirty, slightly thicker (tens of meters) ice sheet and the composite is preserved as a layer of laminae composed predominately of water ice. Because of insolation variation on slopes, a series of poleward- and equatorward-facing scarps are formed where the edges of the laminae are exposed. Independently of orbital variations, these scarps propagate poleward both by erosion of the equatorward slopes and by deposition on the poleward slopes. Scarp propagation resurfaces and recycles the laminae forming the distinctive spiral bands of terraces observed and provides a supply of water to form new permanent ice caps. The polar laminae boundary marks the furthest eqautorward extension of the permanent H₂O caps as the orbit varies. The polar debris boundary marks the furthest equatorward extension of the annual CO₂ caps as the orbit varies.The Martian regolith is now a significant geochemical sink for carbon dioxide. CO₂ has been irreversibly removed from the atmosphere by carbonate formation. CO₂ has also benn removed by regolith adsorption. Polar temperature increases caused by orbital variations are not great enough     

A 1 Gyr climate model for Mars: new orbital statistics and the importance of seasonally resolved polar processes

New results from a 1 Gyr integration of the martian orbit are presented along with a seasonally resolved energy balance climate model employed to illuminate the gross characteristics of the long-term atmospheric pressure evolution. We present a new analysis of the statistical variation of the martian obliquity and precession prior to and subsequent to the formation of the Tharsis uplift, and explore the long term effects on the martian climate. We find that seasonal polar cycles have a critical influence on the ability for the regolith to release CO₂ at high obliquities, and find that the atmospheric CO₂ actually decreases at high obliquities due to the cooling effect of polar deposits at latitudes where seasonal caps form. At low obliquity, the formation of massive, permanent polar caps depends critically on the values of the frost albedo, A_frost, and frost emissivity, ?_frost. Using our model with values of A_frost=0.67 and ?_frost=0.55, matched to the NASA Ames General Circulation Model (GCM) results (Haberle et al., 1993, J. Geophys. Res. 98, 3093-3123, and Haberle et al., 2003, Icarus 161, 66-89), we find that permanent caps only form at low obliquities (<13°), suggesting that any permanent deposits on the surface of Mars today may be residuals left over from a period of very low obliquity, or are the result of mechanisms not represented by this model. Thus, contrary to expectations, the martian atmospheric pressure is remarkable static over time, and decreases both at high and low obliquity. Also, from our one billion year orbital model, we present new results on the fraction of time Mars is expected to experience periods of low obliquity and high obliquity.     

The atmospheric circulation and dust activity in different orbital epochs on Mars

A general circulation model is used to evaluate changes to the circulation and dust transport in the martian atmosphere for a range of past orbital conditions. A dust transport scheme, including parameterized dust lifting, is incorporated within the model to enable passive or radiatively active dust transport. The focus is on changes which relate to surface features, as these may potentially be verified by observations. Obliquity variations have the largest impact, as they affect the latitudinal distribution of solar heating. At low obliquities permanent CO₂ ice caps form at both poles, lowering mean surface pressures. At higher obliquities, solar insolation peaks at higher summer latitudes near solstice, producing a stronger, broader meridional circulation and a larger seasonal CO₂ ice cap in winter. Near-surface winds associated with the main meridional circulation intensify and extend polewards, with changes in cap edge position also affecting the flow. Hence the model predicts significant changes in surface wind directions as well as magnitudes. Dust lifting by wind stress increases with obliquity as the meridional circulation and associated near-surface winds strengthen. If active dust transport is used, then lifting rates increase further in response to the larger atmospheric dust opacities (hence circulation) produced. Dust lifting by dust devils increases more gradually with obliquity, having a weaker link to the meridional circulation. The primary effect of varying eccentricity is to change the impact of varying the areocentric longitude of perihelion, l, which determines when the solar forcing is strongest. The atmospheric circulation is stronger when l aligns with solstice rather than equinox, and there is also a bias from the martian topography, resulting in the strongest circulations when perihelion is at northern winter solstice. Net dust accumulation depends on both lifting and deposition. Dust which has been well mixed within the atmosphere is deposited preferentially over high topography. For wind stress lifting, the combination produces peak net removal within western boundary currents and southern midlatitude bands, and net accumulation concentrated in Arabia and Tharsis. In active dust transport experiments, dust is also scoured from northern midlatitudes during winter, further confining peak accumulation to equatorial regions. As obliquity increases, polar accumulation rates increase for wind stress lifting and are largest for high eccentricities when perihelion occurs during northern winter. For dust devil lifting, polar accumulation rates increase (though less rapidly) with obliquity above o=25°, but increase with decreasing obliquity below this, thus polar dust accumulation at low obliquities may be increasingly due to dust lifted by dust devils. For all cases discussed, the pole receiving most dust shifts from north to south as obliquity is increased.     

The state and future of Mars polar science and exploration.

As the planet's principal cold traps, the martian polar regions have accumulated extensive mantles of ice and dust that cover individual areas of approximately 10(6) km2 and total as much as 3-4 km thick. From the scarcity of superposed craters on their surface, these layered deposits are thought to be comparatively young--preserving a record of the seasonal and climatic cycling of atmospheric CO2, H2O, and dust over the past approximately 10(5)-10(8) years. For this reason, the martian polar deposits may serve as a Rosetta Stone for understanding the geologic and climatic history of the planet--documenting variations in insolation (due to quasiperiodic oscillations in the planet's obliquity and orbital elements), volatile mass balance, atmospheric composition, dust storm activity, volcanic eruptions, large impacts, catastrophic floods, solar luminosity, supernovae, and perhaps even a record of microbial life. Beyond their scientific value, the polar regions may soon prove important for another reason--providing a valuable and accessible reservoir of water to support the long-term human exploration of Mars. In this paper we assess the current state of Mars polar research, identify the key questions that motivate the exploration of the polar regions, discuss the extent to which current missions will address these questions, and speculate about what additional capabilities and investigations may be required to address the issues that remain outstanding.     

Climatic change on the terrestrial planets

In this paper, we review the observational data on climatic change for the terrestrial planets, discuss the basic factors that influence climate, and examine the manner in which these factors may have been responsible for some of the known changes. Emphasis is placed on trying to understand the similarities and differences in both the basic factors and their climatic impacts on Venus, the Earth, and Mars. Climatic changes have occurred on the Earth over a broad spectrum of time scales that range from the elevated temperatures of Pre-Cambrian times (～10⁹ years ago), through the alternating glacial and interglacial epochs of the last few million years, to the small but significant decadal and centurial variations of the recent past. Evidence for climatic change on Mars is given by certain channel features, which suggest an early to intermediate aged epoch of warmer and wetter climate, and by layered polar deposits, which imply more recent periodic climate variations. No evidence for climatic change on Venus exists as yet, but comparison of its present climate state with that of outer terrestrial planets offers important clues on some of the mechanisms affecting climate. The important determinants of climate for a terrestrial planet include the Sun's output, astronomical perturbations of its orbital and axial characteristics, the gaseous and particulate content of its atmosphere, its land surface, volatile reservoirs, and its interior. All these factors appear to have played major roles in causing climatic changes on the terrestrial planets. Despite a lower solar luminosity in the past, the Earth and Mars have had warmer periods in their early history. In both cases, a more reducing atmosphere may have been the responsible agent through an enhanced greenhouse effect. In this paper, we present detailed calculations of the effect of atmospheric pressure and composition on the temperature state of Mars. We find that the higher temperature period is easier to explain with a reducing atmosphere than with the current fully oxidizing one. Both the very high surface temperature and massive atmosphere of Venus may be the result of the solar flux being a factor of two higher at its orbit than at the Earth's orbit. This difference may have led to a runaway greenhouse effect on Venus, i.e., the emplacement of volatiles entirely in the atmosphere rather than mostly in surface reservoirs. But if Venus formed with relatively little or no water, it may have always had an oxidizing atmosphere. In this case, a lower solar luminosity would have led to a moderate surface temperature in Venus' early history. Quasi-periodic variations in orbital eccentricity and axial obliquity may have contributed to the alternation between Pleistocene glacial and interglacial periods in the case of the Earth and to the formation of the layered polar deposits in the case of Mars. In this paper, we postulate that two mechanisms, acting jointly, account for the creation of the laminated terrain of Mars: dust particles serve as nucleation centers for the condensation of water vapor and carbon dioxide. The combined dust-H₂O-CO₂ particle is much larger and so has a much higher terminal velocity than either a dust-H₂O or a plain dust particle. As a result, dust and water ice are preferentially deposited in the polar regions. In addition, we postulate that the obliquity variations are key drivers of the periodic layering because of their impact on both atmospheric pressure and polar surface temperature, which, in turn, influence the amounts of dust and water ice in the atmosphere. But eccentricity and precessional changes probably also play important roles in creating the polar layers. The drifting of continents on the Earth has caused substantial climatic changes on individual continents and may have helped to set the stage for the Pleistocene ice ages through a positioning of the continents near the poles. While continental drift apparently has not occurred on Mars, tectonic distortions of its lithosphere may, in some circumstances, cause an alteration in the mean value of that planet's obliquity, which would significantly impact its climate. Atmospheric aerosols can influemce climate through their radiative effects. In the case of the Earth, volcanic aerosols appear to have contributed to past climatic changes, while consideration needs to be given to the future impact of man-generated aerosols. In the case of Mars, the atmospheric temperature structure and thereby atmospheric dynamics are greatly altered by suspended dust particles. The sulfuric acid clouds of Venus play a major role in its heat balance. Cometary impacts may have added substantial quantities of water vapor and sulfur gases to Venus' atmosphere and thus have indirectly affected its cloud properties. Calculations presented in this paper indicate substantial changes in surface temperature accompany these compositional changes.     

Distribution and state of H2O in the high-latitude shallow subsurface of mars

A quantitative model of the state, distribution, and migration of water in the shallow Martian regolith is presented. Reported results are confined to the region of the planet greater than 40° lat. The calculations take into account (1) expected thermal variations at all depths, latitudes, and times resulting from seasonal and astronomically induced insolation variations; (2) variations in atmospheric P_H2O and P_CO2 resulting from polar insolation variations and regolith adsorptive equilibria; (3) feedback effects related to latent heat and albedo variations resulting from condensation of atmospheric constituents; (4) two possible regolith mineralogies; (5) variable total H₂O content of the regolith; (6) kinetics of H₂O transport through the Martian atmosphere and regolith; and (7) equilibrium phase partitioning of H₂O between the condensed, adsorbed, and vapor phases. Results suggest that the adsorptive capacity of the regolith is important in controlling the state and distribution of high-latitude H₂O; unweathered mafic silicates favor the development of shallow ground ice at all temperate and polar latitudes, while heavily weathered clay-like regolith materials leads to a deeper ground ice interface and far more extensive quantities of adsorbed H₂O. The capacity of the high-latitude regolith for storage of H₂O and the total mass of H₂O exchanged between the atmosphere, polar cap, and subsurface over an obliquity cycle is found to be relatively independent of mineralogy. The maximum exchanged volume is found to be 3.0 × 10⁴ km³ of ice per cycle. Implications for the history of the polar caps and the origin of the layered terrain are discussed. Results also suggest that seasonal thermal waves act to force adsorbed H₂O into the solid phase over a wide variety of latitude/obliquity conditions. Seasonal phase cycling of regolith H₂O is most common at high latitudes and obliquities. Such phase behavior is highly dependent on regolith mineralogy. In a highly weathered regolith, adsorbed H₂O is annually forced into the solid phase at all latitudes ≥40° at obliquities greater than approximately 25°. Seasonal adsorption-freezing cycles which are predicted here may produce geomorphologic signatures not unlike those produced by terrestrial freeze-thaw cycles.     

Diurnal behaviour of water on mars

We have developed a numerical model of the diurnal transport of water across the martian surface. The atmospheric boundary layer is modelled in terms of local radiative-convective processes. The radiative effects of ice fogs near the surface are included in the model. The diffusion of water in the ground is treated for the cases of adsorption and condensation.The model is applied to the diurnal variation of water vapour in the atmosphere as observed by Barker (1974a,b,; 1975). We can explain the morning rise in the amount of water vapour in terms of the evaporation of ground fogs. The evening decrease is compatible with our model if adsorption dominates in the soil. The average level of vapour concentration requires that the atmosphere above the boundary layer be relatively dry. The ground fogs persist until midmorning and should be observable. Some consequences of these conclusions are discussed.     

High latitude patterned grounds on Mars: Classification, distribution and climatic control

Patterned grounds such as polygonal features and slope stripes are the signature of the presence of ground ice and of temperature variations in cold regions on Earth. Identifying similar features on Mars is important to understand its past climate as well as the ground ice distribution. In this study, young patterned grounds are classed and mapped from the systematical analysis of Mars Observer Camera high resolution images. These features are located poleward of 55° latitude which fits the distribution of ground ice found by the Neutron Spectrometer onboard Mars Odyssey. Thermal contraction due to seasonal temperature variations is the predominant process of formation of polygons formed by cracks which sizes vary from 15 to 300 m. The small (<40 m) widespread polygons are very recent and degraded by the desiccation of ground ice from the cracks which enhances the effect of ice sublimation. The large polygons (50 to 300 m) located only around the south CO₂ polar cap indicate the presence of ground ice and thus outline the limit of the CO₂ ice cap. They could be due to the blanketing of water ice deposits by the advances and retreats of the residual CO₂ ice cap during the last thousand years. Large (50-250 m) and homogeneous polygons similar to ice wedge polygons, hillslope stripes and solifluction lobes may indicate that specific environments such as crater floors and hillslopes could have been submitted to freeze-thaw cycles, possibly related to higher summer temperatures in periods of obliquity higher than 35°. These interpretations must be strengthened by higher resolution images such as those of the HiRise mission of the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter because locations with past seasonal thaw could be of major interest as potential landing sites for the Phoenix mission.     

A process to make massive ice in the martian regolith using long-term diffusion and thermal cracking

This paper describes a “simple standard” model of water transport through regolith that includes diffusive migration and phase changes driven by damped seasonal temperature waves. A hitherto unused first-order process is then added, that can produce ice densities much greater than those allowed by the initial dry porosity. Voids are produced in cooling icy regolith when tensile stresses exceed the cracking threshold . These stresses build up through an interaction of thermal contraction and elastic-plastic response. When the cracks open up after tensile failure there is purely thermal void enhancement and subsequent reduction as the regolith warms again. When the cracks are open the porosity is increased and they partially fill with ice crystals. Thus the void reduction on warming cannot go back to the original zero point and the bulk density of ice is increased with each temperature cycle. The cracking and thermal adjustment happen at scales of meters to millimeters. The large cracks can occur in pure ice and/or homogeneous icy material and the smaller cracks are produced by rock cobbles, pebbles, and grains having a much smaller coefficient of thermal expansion than ice. Thus a hierarchy of cracks and voids forms each temperature cycle and augments the ice content. The process can take the upper few meters of a pore-saturated icy soil from 28% by mass ice content to 70% in 10 Ma. This mechanism and the seasonal temperature cycle can plausibly produce massive ice deposits in the upper few meters of Mars' high-latitude regolith by diffusion and also keep the massive-ice regolith effectively porous to water vapor transport. The obliquity cycle can produce tensile stresses nearing 2 MPa down to depth so even deeper cracking could be happening.     

Evolution of the north-polar cap of Mars: a modelling study

Celestial-mechanical computations show that, even stronger than for Earth, Mars is subject to Milankovi? cycles, that is, quasi-periodic variations of the orbital parameters obliquity, eccentricity and precession. Consequently, solar insolation varies on time-scales of 10⁴-10⁵ years. It has long been supposed that this entails climatic cycles like the terrestrial glacial-interglacial cycles. This hypothesis is supported by the light-dark layered deposits of the north- and south-polar caps indicating a strongly varying dust content of the ice due to varying climate conditions in the past. This study aims at simulating the dynamic and thermodynamic evolution of the north-polar cap (NPC) of Mars with the ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS. The boundary conditions of surface accumulation, ablation and temperature are derived directly from the solar-insolation history by applying the newly developed model MAIC. We consider steady-state scenarios under present climate conditions as well as transient scenarios over climatic cycles. It is found that the NPC is most likely not in steady state with the present climate. The topography of the NPC is mainly controlled by the history of the surface mass balance. Ice flow, which is of the order of , plays only a minor role. In order to build up the present cap during the last five million years of relatively low obliquities, a present accumulation rate of water equiv a⁻¹ is required. Computed basal temperatures are far below pressure melting for all simulations and all times.     

Global distribution and migration of subsurface ice on mars

A thermal/diffusive model of H₂O kinetics and equilibrium was developed to investigate the long-term evolution and depth distribution of subsurface ice on Mars. The model quantitatively takes into account (1) obliquity variations; (2) eccentricity variations; (3) long-term changes in the solar luminosity; (4) variations in the argument of subsolar meridian (in planetocentric equatorial coordinates); (5) albedo changes at higher latitudes due to seasonal phase changes of CO₂ and the varying extent of CO₂ ice cover; (6) planetary internal heat flow; (7) temperature variations in the regolith as a function of depth, time, and latitude due to the above factors; (8) atmospheric pressure variations over a 10⁴-year time scale; (9) the effects of factors (1) through (5) on seasonal polar cap temperatures; and (10) Knudsen and molecular diffusion of H₂O through the regolith. The migration of H₂O into or out of the regolith is determined by two boundary conditions, the H₂O vapor pressure at the subsurface ice boundary and the annual average H₂O concentration at the base of the atmosphere. These are controlled respectively by the annual average regolith temperature at the given depth and seasonal temperatures at the polar cap. Starting from an arbitrary initial uniform depth distribution of subsurface ice, H₂O fluxes into or out of the regolith are calculated for 100 selected obliquity cycles, each representing a different epoch in Mars' history. The H₂O fluxes are translated into ice thicknesses and extrapolated over time to give the subsurface ice depth as a function of latitude and time. The results show that obliquity variations influence annual average regolith temperatures in varying degrees, depending on latitude, with the greatest effect at the poles and almost no effect at 40° lat. Insolation changes at the pole, due to obliquity, argument of subsolar meridian, and eccentricity variations can produce enormous atmospheric H₂O concentration variations of ≈6 orders of magnitude over an obliquity cycle. Superimposed on these cyclic variations is a slow, monotonic change due to the increasing solar luminosity. Albedo changes at the polar cap due to seasonal phase changes of CO₂ and the varying thickness of the CO₂ ice cover are critically important in determining annual average atmospheric H₂O concentrations. Despite the strongly oscillating character of the boundary conditions, only small amounts of H₂O are exchanged between the regolith and the atmosphere per obliquity cycle (<10 g/cm²). The net result of H₂O migration is that the regolith below 30–40° lat is depleted of subsurface ice, while the regolith above 30–40° lat contains permanent ice due to the depth of penetration of the annual thermal wave. This result is supported by recent morphological studies. The rate of migration of H₂O is strongly dependent on average pore/capillary radius for which we have assumed values of 1 and 10 μm. We estimate that the H₂O ice removed from the regolith would produce a permanent ice cap with a volume between 2 × 10⁶ and 6 × 10⁶ km³. This generally agrees with estimates deduced from deflationary features at lower latitudes, depositional features at higher latitudes, and the mass of the polar caps.     

The effects of the martian regolith on GCM water cycle simulations

This paper describes General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations of the martian water cycle focusing on the effects of an adsorbing regolith. We describe the 10-layer regolith model used in this study which has been adapted from the 1-D model developed by Zent, A.P., Haberle, R.M., Houben, H.C., Jakosky, B.M. [1993. A coupled subsurface-boundary layer model of water on Mars. J. Geophys. Res. 98 (E2), 3319-3337, February]. Even with a 30-min timestep and taking into account the effect of surface water ice, our fully implicit scheme compares well with the results obtained by Zent, A.P., Haberle, R.M., Houben, H.C., Jakosky, B.M. [1993. A coupled subsurface-boundary layer model of water on Mars. J. Geophys. Res. 98 (E2), 3319-3337, February]. This means, however, that the regolith is not able to reproduce the diurnal variations in column water vapour abundance of up to a factor of 2-3 as seen in some observations, with only about 10% of the atmospheric water vapour column exchanging with the subsurface on a daily basis. In 3-D simulations we find that the regolith adsorbs water preferentially in high latitudes. This is especially true in the northern hemisphere, where perennial subsurface water ice builds up poleward of 60° N at depths which are comparable to the Odyssey observations. Much less ice forms in the southern high latitudes, which suggests that the water ice currently present in the martian subsurface is not stable under present conditions and is slowly subliming and being deposited in the northern hemisphere. When initialising the model with an Odyssey-like subsurface water ice distribution the model is capable of forcing the simulated water cycle from an arbitrary state close to the Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer observations. Without the actions of the adsorbing regolith the equilibrated water cycle is found to be a factor of 2-4 too wet. The process by which this occurs is by adsorption of water during northern hemisphere summer in northern mid and high latitudes where it remains locked in until northern spring when the seasonal CO₂ ice cap retreats. At this time the water diffuses out of the regolith in response to increased temperature and is returned to the residual water ice cap by eddie transport.     

Evaporation of ice in planetary atmospheres: Ice-covered rivers on mars

The evaporation rate of water ice on the surface of a planet with an atmosphere involves an equilibrium between solar heating and radiative and evaporative cooling of the ice layer. The thickness of the ice is governed principally by the solar flux which penetrates the ice layer and then is conducted back to the surface. These calculations differ from those of Lingenfelter et al. [(1968) Science161, 266–269] for putative lunar channels in including the effect of the atmosphere. Evaporation from the surface is governed by two physical phenomena: wind and free convection. In the former case, water vapor diffuses from the surface of the ice through a lamonar boundary layer and then is carried away by eddy diffusion above, provided by the wind. The latter case, in the absence of wind, is similar, except that the eddy diffusion is caused by the lower density of water vapor than the Martian atmosphere. For mean Martian insolations the evaporation rate above the ice is ～ 10^?8 g cm^?2 sec^?1. Thus, even under present Martian conditions a flowing channel of liquid water will be covered with ice which evaporates sufficiently slowly that the water below can flow for hundreds of kilometers even with quite modest discharges. Evaporation rates are calculated for a wide range of frictional velocities, atmospheric pressures, and insolations and it seems clear that at least some subset of observed Martian channels may have formed as ice-choked rivers. Typical equilibrium thicknesses of such ice covers are ～ 10 to 30 m; typical surface temperatures are 210 to 235°K. Ice-covered channels or lakes on Mars today may be of substantial biological interest. Ice is a sufficiently poor conductor of heat that sunlight which penetrates it can cause melting to a depth of several meters or more. Because the obliquity of Mars can vary up to some 35°, the increased polar heating at such times seems able to cause subsurface melting of the ice caps to a depth which corresponds to the observed lamina thickness and may be responsible for the morphology of these polar features.     

Water in the upper martian surface at mid- and low-latitudes: presence, state, and consequences

Sublimation of water ice is more effective than evaporation of sorption water at the same temperature. Therefore, water in the form of ice must, over geologic time-scales, have left the upper martian surface (m-scale) at mid- and low-latitudes, leaving sorption water as a possible physical form of stable subsurface water. Adsorption water is “liquid-like” at these temperatures (in the sense of a 2D-liquid). This property is the reason for the specific importance of physisorbed water under martian conditions. It is shown that unfrozen adsorption water can cause numerous physical, chemical, and possibly also biological processes in the upper martian surface and may be responsible for a number of its properties.     

Liquid water on Mars

The factors which affect fusion and evaporation of ice under a variety of Martian surface conditions are examined. It is found that a frost or ice deposit will pass through a transient liquid phase in temperate latitudes during summer, if the ice is partly or wholly dust covered. The barrier to free gaseous diffusion which the surface material presents is, under favorable (and definable) conditions, more than adequate to force the water to remain in the liquid state until its evaporation is complete. Furthermore, for a realistic range of regolith particle sizes and porosities, and depths of burial of the ice, the lifetime of the ice can be considerably longer than the duration of a single diurnal warming cycle. Current knowledge of the seosonal and diurnal behavior of the atmospheric vapor is summarized and discussed as it relates to the availability of surface ice at temperate latitudes.     

The Mars water cycle

A model has been developed to test the hypothesis that the observed seasonal and latitudinal distribution of water on Mars is controlled by the sublimation and condensation of surface ice deposits in the arctic and antarctic, and the meridional transport of water vapor. Besides reproducing the observed water vapor distribution, the model correctly reproduces the presence of a large permanent ice cap in the arctic and not in the antarctic. No permanent ice reservoirs are predicted in the temperate or equatorial zones. Wintertime ice deposits in the arctic are shown to be the source of the large water vapor abundances observed in the arctic summertime, and the moderate water vapor abundances in the northern temperate region. Model calculations suggest that a year without dust storms results in very little change in the water vapor distribution. The current water distribution appears to be the equilibrium distribution for present atmospheric conditions.     

Pedestal crater heights on Mars: A proxy for the thicknesses of past, ice-rich, Amazonian deposits

Mid-latitude pedestal craters on Mars offer crucial insights into the timing and extent of widespread ice-rich deposits during the Amazonian period. Our previous comprehensive analysis of pedestal craters strongly supports a climate-related formation mechanism, whereby pedestals result from impacts into ice-rich material at mid latitudes during periods of higher obliquity. The ice from this target deposit later sublimates due to obliquity changes, but is preserved beneath the protective cover of the armored pedestal. As such, the heights of pedestals act as a proxy for the thicknesses of the paleodeposits. In this analysis, our measurement of 2300 pedestal heights shows that although pedestals can reach up to ∼260 m in height, ∼82% are shorter than 60 m and only ∼2% are taller than 100 m. Mean pedestal heights are 48.0 m in the northern mid latitudes and 40.4 m in the southern mid latitudes, with the tallest pedestals located in Utopia Planitia, Acidalia Planitia and Malea Planum. We use these data in conjunction with prior climate model results to identify both regional and global trends regarding ice accumulation during obliquity excursions. Our data provide evidence for multiple episodes of emplacement and removal of the mid-latitude ice-rich deposit based on stratigraphic relationships between pedestal craters and the close proximity of pedestals with significantly different heights.     

Numerical simulation of seasonal dynamics of water vapor in the Martian atmosphere

The seasonal evolution of the H₂O snow in the Martian polar caps and the dynamics of water vapor in the Martian atmosphere are studied. It is concluded that the variations of the H₂O mass in the polar caps of Mars are determined by the soil thermal regime in the polar regions of the planet. The atmosphere affects water condensation and evaporation in the polar caps mainly by transferring water between the polar caps. The stability of the system implies the presence of a source of water vapor that compensates for the removal of water from the atmosphere due to permanent vapor condensation in the polar residual caps. The evaporation of the water ice that is present in the surface soil layers in the polar regions of the planet is considered as such a source. The annual growth of the water-ice mass in the residual polar caps is estimated. The latitudinal pattern of the seasonal distribution of water vapor in the atmosphere is obtained for the stable regime.Translated from Astronomicheskii Vestnik, Vol. 38, No. 6, 2004, pp. 497–503.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2004 by Aleshin.     

Periods of active permafrost layer formation during the geological history of Mars: Implications for circum-polar and mid-latitude surface processes

Permafrost is ground remaining frozen (temperatures are below the freezing point of water) for more than two consecutive years. An active layer in permafrost regions is defined as a near-surface layer that undergoes freeze-thaw cycles due to day-average surface and soil temperatures oscillating about the freezing point of water. A “dry” active layer may occur in parched soils without free water or ice but significant geomorphic change through cryoturbation is not produced in these environments. A wet active layer is currently absent on Mars. We use recent calculations on the astronomical forcing of climate change to assess the conditions under which an extensive active layer could form on Mars during past climate history. Our examination of insolation patterns and surface topography predicts that an active layer should form on Mars in the geological past at high latitudes as well as on pole-facing slopes at mid-latitudes during repetitive periods of high obliquity. We examine global high-resolution MOLA topography and geological features on Mars and find that a distinctive latitudinal zonality of the occurrence of steep slopes and an asymmetry of steep slopes at mid-latitudes can be attributed to the effect of active layer processes. We conclude that the formation of an active layer during periods of enhanced obliquity throughout the most recent period of the history of Mars (the Amazonian) has led to significant degradation of impact craters, rapidly decreasing the steep slopes characterizing pristine landforms. Our analysis suggests that an active layer has not been present on Mars in the last ∼5 Ma, and that conditions favoring the formation of an active layer were reached in only about 20% of the obliquity excursions between 5 and 10 Ma ago. Conditions favoring an active layer are not predicted to be common in the next 10 Ma. The much higher obliquity excursions predicted for the earlier Amazonian appear to be responsible for the significant reduction in magnitude of crater interior slopes observed at higher latitudes on Mars. The observed slope asymmetry at mid-latitudes suggests direct insolation control, and hence low atmospheric pressure, during the high obliquity periods throughout the Amazonian. We formulate predictions on the nature and distribution of candidate active layer features that could be revealed by higher resolution imaging data.     

A historical search for habitable ice at the Phoenix landing site

A time-resolved energy balance model in the latitude range targeted by Phoenix, and extending back in time over the past 10 Ma, has been developed and used to predict the time-varying temperature field in ground ice over scales ranging from minutes to millions of years. The temperature history is compared to the population doubling times of terrestrial psychrophiles as a function of temperature, and the lifetime of analog microbe spores against de-activation by galactic cosmic rays (GCR), in order to assess the habitability of ground ice and surrounding materials that may be sampled by Phoenix. Metrics are derived to quantify “habitability” and compare different model configurations, including total and maximum continuous time, per year, that ground ice temperatures exceed various thresholds, maximum and average dormancy periods, and maximum and average consecutive growing seasons. The key unknowns in assessing the position, and hence the temperature, of the ground ice table at high northern latitude is the fate of the perennial north polar cap at high obliquity. If enough H₂O ice can persist at polar latitudes to buffer at least the high-latitude atmosphere at all orbital configurations, ground ice is found to be relatively shallow over much of the past 10 Ma, and regularly achieves temperatures in excess of those required for the growth of terrestrial psychrophiles. The dry overburden expected at the landing site can easily be sampled by Phoenix, and includes the “sweet spot” that is characterized by the optimal habitability metrics over the past 10 Ma. If the atmosphere is buffered only by low-latitude ice deposits at obliquities greater than about 30°, the frequency and duration of habitable ice is considerably diminished, and the intervening dormancy periods, during which cosmic ray damage accumulates, are correspondingly longer. In all cases, the maximum dormancy period that must be survived by putative martian psychrophiles is at least an order of magnitude greater than the amount of time required to reduce terrestrial psychrophile spore viability by 10⁻⁶ (∼7×¹⁰⁴ years). Depending on the fate of high-obliquity polar ice, the maximum dormancy period can exceed 4×¹⁰⁶ years, a factor of 60 longer than terrestrial psychrophile spore lifetimes. Habitability of martian ground ice is therefore dependent on putative martian psychrophiles developing robustness against GCR deactivation at least an order of magnitude greater than their terrestrial counterparts. Simulations of ground ice throughout the 65° N-72° N latitude range accessible to Phoenix suggest that higher-latitude ground ice has better habitability metrics, although the discrepancy is less than an order of magnitude for all metrics and across the entire latitude range.