某电力扩建场地工程地震条件分析

本文采用工程抗震理论,结合场地实际状况,论述了某电力扩建场地的区域构造条件和区域地震环境,确定了场地的地震动参数,并采用概率地震危险性分析法对扩建场地进行地震危险性分析,从而为该工程建设提供合理的设计依据.     

新疆轮台县经济开发区工程场地地震危险性分析

本文分析了新疆轮台县开发场区外围３００ｋｍ范围内的区域地震活动性及地震地质背景，划分出８个潜在震源，采用Ａ．Ｈ－Ｓ．Ａｎｇ提出的断层－破裂模型对场区作了地震危险性分析。计算表明，在给定５０年工程期限，超越概率为１０％时的场地烈度为７．３，相应最大地震影响系数为０．１５８。该结果可作为抗震设计的依据。     

沙牌坝址基岩场地地震动输入参数研究

重大水利水电工程地震动输入参数必须根据专门的地震危险性分析结果来确定。目前由地震危险性分析得到的一致概率反应谱具有包络的意义,不能反映实际地震的频谱特性,输入“一致概率反应谱”可能导致地震作用偏大;拟合设计反应谱人工生成地震动加速度时程的频率非平稳性也没有得到很好解决。为了解决这些问题,得到与坝址地震危险性一致、具体地震的输入参数,结合沙牌大坝提出了一套适用于重大水利水电工程基岩场地地震动输入参数确定方法：通过以有效峰值加速度为参数的概率地震危险性计算分析,确定坝址不同超越概率下的有效峰值加速度及对坝址贡献最大的潜在震源区;在最大贡献潜在震源内利用震级空间联合分布概率最大法确定坝址设定地震,依据加速度反应谱衰减关系确定与坝址设定地震对应的设计反应谱;根据设定地震结果和时变功率谱模型参数衰减关系确定时变功率谱,将时变功率谱和最小相位谱按三角级数叠加法进行强度和频率非平稳地震加速度时程合成。在对沙牌坝址区域的地震活动性及地震构造环境分析评价的基础上,采用上述方法,得到了坝址基岩场地不同超越概率下的有效峰值加速度、设计反应谱、强度和频率非平稳地震加速度时程等地震动输入参数。     

青藏工程走廊多年冻土场地地震动加速度峰值特征研究

根据青藏工程走廊北麓河及楚玛尔河场地地震危险性分析结果,合成年超越概率为1.97%、1.00%、0.21%、0.10%、0.04%、0.02%的人造基岩地震波作为输入地震动,结合场地钻孔剖面及波速资料,和已有的冻土动力学研究成果,建立一维模型,通过等效线性化方法进行场地地震反应分析计算,研究了青藏工程走廊多年冻土场地地震动加速度峰值特征及影响因素.研究结果表明,北麓河场地与楚玛尔河场地的人造基岩地震波峰值及持时均存在显著差异,北麓河场地峰值大、持时短,以近震影响为主,楚玛尔河场地峰值小、持时长,以中远震影响为主;多年冻土区场地,夏季场地地震动加速度峰值显著大于冬季,活动层融化对场地地震动加速度峰值有明显的放大效应;冬季场地冻结后,场地地震动加速度峰值随冻土波速增大而减小,最大减小幅度为6.1%,随动剪切模量比减小、阻尼比增大而减小,最大减小幅度为8.9%.活动层的融化有利于放大场地地震动加速度峰值,重大冻土工程抗震设防应予以重视.     

庞庄煤矿老采区场地稳定性评价及环境影响分析

基于构造地质、地层岩性、地震、水文地质、岩土工程地质条件分析,以及庞庄煤矿老采区煤层开采资料分析,应用残余变形概率积分法,预测计算了庞庄煤矿工业广场的地表残余变形,评价了其场地稳定性,并分析了庞庄煤矿开采对环境地质的影响。庞庄煤矿开采对地质环境的影响特别重大,其影响主要表现为包括原始地形地貌、地表水、工程地质和水文地质条件的破坏。庞庄煤矿工业广场的最大残余变形量拐点连线(计算边界)处最大残余倾斜值i_m=3.02~3.28mm/m3.0mm/m,残余倾斜(i_m)可能对拟建工程局部构成危害。笔者将拟建工程区的地质灾害危险性划分为3个区。Ⅰ区和Ⅱ区分别为危险性小区和危险性中等区,为适宜和基本适宜场地;Ⅲ区危险性大,场地适宜性差,需地基工程治理。评价工作为徐矿集团华美2×300MW(CFB)机组工程机组建设工程提供了场地安全保证,同时,为合理利用宝贵的庞庄煤矿工业广场土地资源,提高土地综合利用率,提供了坚实依据。     

关于工程地震工作中地震微区划的工程地质法

工程地震是为地震工程服务的,其主要任务是研究区域一般地震危险性,并对建筑地区的场地条件进行微区划的研究。此外,还要对建筑场地在预期地震作用下可能出现的地基震害作出预测,并进一步与地震工程工作者密切协作,为提供抗震设计所需参数作出贡献。 地震使工程构筑物遭受损害有不同的方式,诸     

基于蒙特卡洛模拟的概率断层位错危险性分析

同震位错对川藏铁路等跨断层工程的安全造成严重威胁,合理评价活断层的位错参数具有重要的应用价值.由于传统的确定性评价方法存在无法区分工程场点的重要程度和其在断层上的相对位置等缺陷,越来越多的学者推荐采用概率断层位错危险性分析（PFDHA）.然而基于经典的概率性方法开展PFDHA原理复杂且实现困难,不利于吸收断层地震活动性研究的最新成果,也有碍于PFDHA的普及和推广.相比经典的概率性方法,蒙特卡洛模拟具备逻辑清晰易懂、程序易于实现且兼容性和扩展性好的优点.本研究基于蒙特卡洛模拟实现了概率断层位错危险性分析的一般性算法,并将该方法应用于鲜水河断裂带的炉霍段.结果显示,PFDHA的结果随着超越概率水准或工程场点在断层上的相对位置的不同而显著变化.适当考虑最大同震位错和地表破裂长度的不确定性得到的位错参数更加合理.超越概率大于等于100年2%时,PFDHA的结果显著小于确定性方法的结果.然而随着断层活动性的提高,100年超越概率1%的结果可能会大于确定性方法的结果.按照不同类型工程的抗震设防水准选择相应的PFDHA评价结果,既有利于工程的安全,也有助于大多数工程节约成本.PFDHA相比确定性方法具备多种优势,有望为川藏铁路等重大工程的抗断参数评估提供技术支撑.      

陕西富平黄土震陷特性及震陷小区划

典型黄土由于其特殊的大孔隙架空结构特征,在强震作用下具有强烈的震陷性。陕西富平县地处渭河盆地和鄂尔多斯地台的连接带,区内地震构造背景复杂,黄土分布广泛,黄土场地的震陷危险性较高。文章以富平县城市总体规划建设用地和富阎新区规划范围为研究区,通过资料收集、野外调研、室内试验和理论分析等方法,确定研究区的地震工程地质条件,采用地震危险性概率分析方法确定研究区不同超越概率水平的地震动参数,基于大量黄土动三轴试验确定区内不同地貌单元及不同地层黄土的震陷特性。在此基础上,对富平县强震作用下黄土场地的震陷进行评价,50年超越概率10%条件下,研究区内轻微、中等震陷区分布于浮塬和渭河二级阶地。50年超越概率2%条件下,研究区内轻微及中等黄土震陷区主要分布在石川河三—四级阶地、浮塬和渭河二级阶地。严重震陷区主要分布在渭河二级阶地、石川河三—四级阶地和浮塬。根据震陷等级给出了研究区50年超越概率10%和2%水平下的黄土震陷小区划。研究结果可为富平县的防震减灾工作提供科学依据。     

地震安全性评价方法及其应用

根据建筑场地地震安全性评价工作的要求,结合实际工程讨论了场地地震安全性评价工作的技术思路、区域及近场区地震地质调查、地震活动性分析、地震地质背景、地震动衰减关系、地震危险性概率分析、场地地震动设计参数的确定等.经研究认为,在研究区域中存在发生七级左右地震的地质背景,本场地土类型为中软场地土,建筑场地类别为Ⅲ类.在研究中同时得到的场地设计地震动参数,可供设计部门参考.     

大连开发区场地地震设计参数

根据工作区潜在震源区划分、潜在震源区地震活动性参数和地震动衰减关系, 进行场地地震危险性分析, 得到不同概率水平下场区相应地震烈度和基岩水平加速度峰值及其反应谱。根据场地工程地震条件划分不同地质单元及相应的场地类别, 进行不同概率水平的地震反应分析计算, 确定地震动设计参数。     

Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.     

地震动力学与板块构造:地震灾害评估

作为地震灾害评估的理论基础,地震动力学主要研究与地震活动有关的断裂机制、破裂过程、震源辐射和由此而引起的地震波的传播及地面运动规律。对地震力学、震源辐射和能量释放等经典理论问题进行了系统研究。在此基础上,应用最新的定量地震学研究方法,以逻辑树的形式综合地震、地质和大地测量资料,提供了不同构造环境和断裂机制条件下地震灾害评估的概率分析和确定性分析实例。用于震源分析的典型构造类型包括板内地壳震源层、地壳活动断层及其速率、板块俯冲界面和俯冲板片。由于输入模型中不确定因素的存在,如输入参数的随机性和科学分析方法本身的不确定性,对分析结果的不确定性需审慎对待。通常对不同的模型或参量,包括地面衰减模型,进行加权平均可较为合理地减小结果的偏差：概率分析和确定性分析方法的结合亦为可取之有效途径。     

Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment for Tulbagh,South Africa: Part I – Assessment of Seismic Hazard

In this part of our study the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Tulbagh was performed. The applied procedure is parametric and consists essentially of two steps. The first step is applicable to the area in the vicinity of Tulbagh and requires an estimation of the area-specific parameters, which, in this case, is the mean seismic activity rate, , the Gutenberg-Richter parameter, b, and the maximum regional magnitude, m_max. The second step is applicable to the Tulbagh site, and consists of parameters of distribution of amplitude of the selected ground motion parameter. The current application of the procedure provides an assessment of the PSHA in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA). The procedure permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data. The historical part of the catalogue only contains the strongest events, whereas the complete part can be divided into several subcatalogues, each assumed complete above a specified threshold of magnitude. In the analysis, the uncertainty in the determination of the earthquake was taken into account by incorporation of the concept of `apparent magnitude'. The PSHA technique has been developed specifically for the estimation of seismic hazard at individual sites without the subjective judgement involved in the definition of seismic source zones, when the specific active faults have not been mapped or identified, and where the causes of seismicity are not well understood. The results of the hazard assessment are expressed as probabilities that specified values of PGA will be exceeded during the chosen time intervals, and similarly for the spectral accelerations. A worst case scenario sketches the possibility of a maximum PGA of 0.30g. The results of the hazard assessment can be used as input to a seismic risk assessment.     

Probabilistic Analysis of Tsunami Hazards*

Determining the likelihood of a disaster is a key component of any comprehensive hazard assessment. This is particularly true for tsunamis, even though most tsunami hazard assessments have in the past relied on scenario or deterministic type models. We discuss probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) from the standpoint of integrating computational methods with empirical analysis of past tsunami runup. PTHA is derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), with the main difference being that PTHA must account for far-field sources. The computational methods rely on numerical tsunami propagation models rather than empirical attenuation relationships as in PSHA in determining ground motions. Because a number of source parameters affect local tsunami runup height, PTHA can become complex and computationally intensive. Empirical analysis can function in one of two ways, depending on the length and completeness of the tsunami catalog. For site-specific studies where there is sufficient tsunami runup data available, hazard curves can primarily be derived from empirical analysis, with computational methods used to highlight deficiencies in the tsunami catalog. For region-wide analyses and sites where there are little to no tsunami data, a computationally based method such as Monte Carlo simulation is the primary method to establish tsunami hazards. Two case studies that describe how computational and empirical methods can be integrated are presented for Acapulco, Mexico (site-specific) and the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline (region-wide analysis). * The U.S. Government’s right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

PSHA: is it science?

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is beginning to be seen as unreliable. The problem with PSHA is that its data are inadequate and its logic is defective. Much more reliable, and more scientific, are deterministic procedures, especially when coupled with engineering judgment.     

A performance-based framework for assessing liquefaction potential based on CPT data

This article describes a new performance-based approach for evaluating the return period of seismic soil liquefaction based on standard penetration test (SPT) and cone penetration test (CPT) data. The conventional liquefaction evaluation methods consider a single acceleration level and magnitude and these approaches fail to take into account the uncertainty in earthquake loading. The seismic hazard analysis based on the probabilistic method clearly shows that a particular acceleration value is being contributed by different magnitudes with varying probability. In the new method presented in this article, the entire range of ground shaking and the entire range of earthquake magnitude are considered and the liquefaction return period is evaluated based on the SPT and CPT data. This article explains the performance-based methodology for the liquefaction analysis – starting from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for the evaluation of seismic hazard and the performance-based method to evaluate the liquefaction return period. A case study has been done for Bangalore, India, based on SPT data and converted CPT values. The comparison of results obtained from both the methods have been presented. In an area of 220 km² in Bangalore city, the site class was assessed based on large number of borehole data and 58 Multi-channel analysis of surface wave survey. Using the site class and peak acceleration at rock depth from PSHA, the peak ground acceleration at the ground surface was estimated using probabilistic approach. The liquefaction analysis was done based on 450 borehole data obtained in the study area. The results of CPT match well with the results obtained from similar analysis with SPT data.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Horn of Africa based on seismotectonic regionalisation

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for the Horn of Africa is presented. Our seismicity database consists of a revised and up-to-date regional catalogue compiled from different agencies, checked for completeness with respect to time and homogenized with respect to magnitude (M_s). The seismic source zones are based on our present day knowledge of the regional seismotectonics. Among the results we present regional hazard maps for 0.01 annual probability for intensity and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and hazard curves and response spectra for six economical significant sites within the region. The model uncertainties with respect to seismicity are analysed in a novel approach and form part of a sensitivity analysis that quantifies our PSHA modelling uncertainties.

For 0.01 annual probability we find randomly oriented horizontal PGA that exceed just 0.2 g and MM-scale intensity VIII in the Afar depression and southern Sudan. Uncertainties amount to 20% g PGA in some cases, mainly due to attenuation uncertainties. Intensity uncertainties seldom exceed 0.5 intensity units. Relatively large seismic hazard is found for Djibouti (VIII for 0.01 annual probability), slightly lower for the port of Massawa (between VII and VIII for 0.01 annual probability) and low for the port of Assab (between VI and VII for 0.01 annual probability).     

Comparative study of three probabilistic methods for seismic hazard analysis: case studies of Sochi and Kamchatka

Natural Hazards - This study examines the effect of the procedures used in three different probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods for estimating the rates of exceedance of ground...     

A seismic hazard assessment and the results of detailed seismic zoning for urban territories of Sakhalin Island

This work briefly discusses the main features of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Special attention is paid to the identification and quantification of uncertainties related to seismic source characteristics and seismic engineering models for prediction of strong ground motions. The principal seismic models and the results of PSHA application for detailed seismic zoning of urban territories in Sakhalin Island are presented.     

Source-to-site distance distributions for area type of seismic sources used in PSHA applications

The use of recent ground motion prediction equations in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) with area type of seismic sources requires defining the probability distributions of various source-to-site distance metrics with finite fault rupture taken into account. This task is rendered very difficult due to large epistemic uncertainties involved in specifying the details of the causative faults for area sources of diffused seismicity. However, it may generally be possible to constrain the strike and dip angles for fault ruptures in area sources from regional seismotectonic and geological information. This paper proposes to estimate the various finite fault distance measures from a site to a location in an area source by averaging the distances for several fault rupture scenarios with randomly distributed strike and dip over specified ranges. To consider the spatial distribution of the seismicity, the paper then provides the guidelines for defining the distance distributions by assigning suitable weight factors to the distance estimates for a grid of locations in the source area. The PSHA computation based on the distance distributions thus defined is shown to provide quite realistic and objective estimate of the hazard.