Present patterns of decelerating–accelerating seismic strain in South Japan

Decelerating generation of preshocks in a narrow (seismogenic) region and accelerating generation of other preshocks in a broader (critical) region, called decelerating–accelerating seismic strain (D-AS) model has been proposed as appropriate for intermediate-term earthquake prediction. An attempt is made in the present work to identify such seismic strain patterns and estimate the corresponding probably ensuing large mainshocks (M ≥ 7.0) in south Japan (30–38° N, 130–138° E). Two such patterns have been identified and the origin time, magnitude, and epicenter coordinates for each of the two corresponding probably ensuing mainshocks have been estimated. Model uncertainties of predicted quantities are also given to allow an objective forward testing of the efficiency of the model for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.     

Time–frequency analysis of the 2012 double earthquakes records in North-West of Iran

On August 11, 2012, East-Azerbuijan province experienced moderate-size double earthquakes, approximately 60 km northeast of the city of Tabriz. The time–frequency characteristics of ground motion records during these events which caused widespread damage to the structures are investigated in detail. Wavelet transform were applied in this study as a powerful technique to detect the transient and non-stationary features associated in amplitude and frequency of ground motions. The top four PGA ground-motion records from the first and second events were used in the analysis. As a preliminary estimates, the energy contents of horizontal and vertical components of ground-motion records related to building damages were critically evaluated and discussed at different frequency level. Results of energy distribution on pseudo-period corresponding to each decomposition level show good consistency with the level of damage in the stricken area. The focus of this study on the causes of damage considering the energy content of ground motion records is helping to improve the engineering insight in design process of earthquake-resistant buildings.     

Blind identification of soil–structure systems

Surrounding soil can drastically influence the dynamic response of buildings during strong ground shaking. Soil’s flexibility decreases the natural frequencies of the system; and in most cases, soil provides additional damping due to material hysteresis and radiation. The additional damping forces, which are in non-classical form, render the mode shapes of the soil–structure system complex-valued. The response of a soil-foundation system can be compactly represented through impedance functions that have real and imaginary parts representing the stiffness and damping of the system, respectively. These impedance functions are frequency-dependent, and their determination for different configurations been the subject of a considerable number of analytical, numerical, and experimental studies. In this paper, we first develop a new identification technique that is capable of extracting complex mode shapes from the recorded free or ambient vibrations of a system. This technique is an extension of the second-order blind identification (SOBI) method, which is fairly well established in a number of other areas including sound separation, image processing, and mechanical system identification. The relative ease of implementation of this output-only identification technique has been the primary source of its appeal. We assess the accuracy and the utility of this extended SOBI technique by applying it to both synthetic and experimental data. We also present a secondary procedure, through which the frequency-dependent soil-foundation impedance functions can be easily extracted. The said procedure has a practical appeal as it uses only free or ambient responses of the structure to extract the foundation impedance functions, whereas current techniques require expensive and time-consuming forced-vibration tests.     

Application of perfectly matched layers in the transient analysis of dam–reservoir systems

The transient analysis of dam–reservoir systems by employing perfectly matched layers has been investigated. In previous studies, boundary conditions of the PML region in the reservoir have been neglected. In this paper, they are incorporated completely in the formulation. Moreover, a technique is introduced to involve the effect of incident waves caused by vertical ground motions at the reservoir bottom in the analysis. Performing several numerical experiments indicates that applying boundary conditions of the PML domain and utilizing the proposed method for vertical excitation cases reduce the computational cost significantly and make the PML method a very efficient approach for the transient analysis of dam–reservoir systems.     

Analysis of space–time patterns of rainfall events during 1996–2008 in Yilan County (Taiwan)

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - Understanding local precipitation patterns is essential to water resource management and flood mitigation. Precipitation patterns can vary in...     

A study of the role of ion–molecule chemistry in the formation of sporadic sodium layers

Over two campaigns in 1998 and 1999, multiple sporadic sodium events were observed by the Arecibo Observatory sodium density lidar while simultaneously monitoring the plasma density using the incoherent scatter radar. In this paper, we test the theoretical explanation proposed by Cox and Plane (1998) where Na⁺ in a plasma layer is neutralized via an ion–molecule mechanism to form a sporadic sodium layer. A particular challenge is to interpret observations made in a Eulerian frame of observation where the spatial and temporal characteristics of events cannot easily be separated. The reaction scheme in the original mechanism is modified to include the reactions NaO⁺+N₂→Na⁺·N₂+O and NaO⁺+O₂→Na⁺+O₃, following the results of theoretical quantum calculations. Six unique case studies of sporadic sodium layers are presented here, and excellent agreement between simulation and observations was obtained for five of them.     

The enhanced element enrichment in the supercritical states of granite–pegmatite systems

In this paper, we show that supercritical fluids have a greater significance in the generation of pegmatites,and for ore-forming processes related to granites than is usually assumed. We show that the supercritical melt or fluid is a silicate phase in which volatiles; principally H_2O are completely miscible in all proportions at magmatic temperatures and pressures. This phase evolves from felsic melts and changes into hydrothermal fluids, and its unique properties are particularly important in sequestering and concentrating low abundance elements, such as metals. In our past research, we have focused on processes observed at upper crustal levels, however extensive work by us and other researchers have demonstrated that supercritical melt/fluids should be abundant in melting zones at deep-crustal levels too. We propose that these fluids may provide a connecting link between lower and upper crustal magmas,and a highly efficient transport mechanism for usually melt incompatible elements. In this paper, we explore the unique features of this fluid which allow the partitioning of variouselements and compounds, potentially up to extreme levels,and may explain various features both of mineralization and the magmas that produced them.     

Numerical simulation of channel pattern changes Part Ⅱ:Application in a conceptual channel

This paper presents simulated channel patterns for various scenarios in a conceptual alluvial valley by an improved two-dimensional (2-D) mathematical model described in the companion paper. Starting from the same initial channel, different channel patterns have been simulated over a real time period of 250 days for varied boundary and initial conditions, including the inlet water discharge and sediment load, initial valley slope, and erodibility of river banks. Impacts of these control factors are discussed, in terms of the longitudinal bottom profiles of simulated fluvial channels, the geometry of channel cross sections, and the water surface profiles in the conceptual river valley. Results suggest that the upper and lower parts of the same channel may have different planforms because the sediment transport conditions of the two parts differ greatly. Simulated causal relationship between control variables and channel patterns agrees qualitatively with known channel pattern theories.     

Vegetation patterns and soil–atmosphere water fluxes in drylands

Local soil water-vegetation feedbacks play an essential role in vegetation pattern formation in drylands. However, the impact of spatial vegetation patterning on atmosphere-soil water fluxes, and thus on vegetation-climate interactions, is still unknown, even though this issue is crucial to determine how much detail is needed in representing vegetation-atmosphere dynamics in climate models. In this work, we explore whether evapotranspiration fluxes depend only on bulk vegetation characteristics, such as biomass density or vegetated fraction, or rather they depend also on the spatial vegetation pattern dynamics. To address this point, we introduce a new explicit-space model for vegetation dynamics in water-limited ecosystems, which includes two soil layers and is able to correctly represent evapotranspiration in the presence of intermittent rainfall conditions. The model dynamics display spatial self-organization of vegetation with multiple stable states, and the model outcomes reveal that transpiration fluxes in the days following a rainfall event depend on the type of vegetation pattern. The difference in transpiration per unit mass between spots and stripes is about 10%. The results of the simulations also indicate that fluxes from fixed vegetation (representing e.g., cultivated areas) can be very different from those above dynamically evolving vegetation, even when the two vegetation types cover the same fraction of space and have the same biomass density.     

Simulation and control of the linked systems of water quantity–water quality–socio-economics in the Huaihe River basin

Abstract

This work makes explicit an algebraic expression giving the matrix of transient influence coefficients associated with a one-dimensional semi-confined aquifer model. The domain studied is divided into a series of connected and completely mixed compartments over which the governing equation is discretized. The discrete equations obtained are solved for the compartmental hydraulic head and used to derive the algebraic expression in question. The basic properties of the so-called algebraic influence coefficients are investigated. In particular, their consistency with the exact Green function is highlighted. Finally, the newly derived influence coefficients are applied to a simplified aquifer system in order to formulate and solve the problem of identifying illegal groundwater pumping.     

Concentration–discharge patterns of weathering products from global rivers

Quantifying the functional relationships relating river discharge and weathering products places key constraints on the negative feedback between the silicate weathering and climate. In this study we analyze the concentration–discharge relationships of weathering products from global rivers using previously compiled time-series datasets for concentrations and discharge from global rivers. To analyze the nature of the covariation between specific discharge and concentrations, we use both a power law equation and a recently developed solute production equation. The solute production equation allows us to quantify weathering efficiency, or the resistance to dilution at high runoff, via the Damko¨hler coefficient. These results are also compared to those derived using average concentration–discharge pairs.Both the power law exponent and the Damk?hler coefficient increase and asymptote as catchments exhibit increasingly chemostatic behavior, resulting in an inverse relationship between the two parameters. We also show that using thedistribution of average concentration–discharge pairs from global rivers, rather than fitting concentration–discharge relationships for each individual river, underestimates global median weathering efficiency by up to a factor of ～10. This study demonstrates the utility of long time-series sampling of global rivers to elucidate controlling processes needed to quantify patterns in global silicate weathering rates.     

Use of global ductility for design of structure–foundation systems

This paper investigates the applicability of global ductility in the conventional design procedure of structure–foundation systems under earthquake excitation. For a bilinear elastoplastic model, an equivalent ductility factor for the combined structure and foundation is derived, which can be used in conjunction with the enlarged period and increased damping due to soil–structure interaction (SSI) to determine the design strength. A geometric transformation rule for predicting the ductility demand developed in the structure alone from that experienced by the interacting system is also derived, without the need of computing the rigid-body motion of the foundation. To validate this practical approach for assessing both inelastic strengths as well as ductility demands, a number of numerical results for different system parameters and earthquake excitations are provided. The effects of principal parameters involved are also examined.     

Basin patterns of upper ocean warming for 1993–2009

A previous study (Lyman et al., Nature 465:334–337, 2010) showed a robust warming signal of the global upper ocean (0–700 m). They examined several sources of uncertainty that contribute to differences among heat content estimations. However, their focus was limited to globally averaged estimation. This study presents the spatial pattern of the global heat content change based on observed gridded datasets (Levitus et al., Geophys Res Lett 36:L07608, 2009). The western Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans showed significant warming trends, whereas eastern Pacific and some areas of the Gulf Stream experienced negative trends during 1993–2009. Steady warming trend was obtained from the first EOF mode when El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related signals were removed. This result implies that the rapid increase in heat content of the upper ocean around 2000–2005 is not related to a sampling transition from XBT to Argo observations but is associated with a natural variability dominated by strong ENSO-related signals.     

Initial design of urban drainage systems for extreme rainfall events using intensity–duration–area (IDA) curves and Chicago design storms (CDS)

ABSTRACT

Due to more frequent extreme rainfall incidents in recent years, many large cities are considering the construction of new drainage systems to cope with rainfall in the order of 100-year events. In such cases, T-year point rainfall events should be supplemented with areal reduction factors (ARF) to avoid overdesign. To facilitate an initial design, a procedure based on using Chicago Design Storms (CDS) in combination with intensity–duration–area (IDA) curves was developed to produce CDS-ARF input rainfall. By means of the time of concentration, a specific instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH) was obtained for each subcatchment. Combination of CDS-ARF rains and the subcatchment IUHs using convolution integrals was used to produce inflow hydrographs to the drainage system. A sequential design procedure that successively includes subcatchments for the entire drainage system in the downstream direction is implemented and exemplified ensuring a consistent initial design.     

Fluid–particle interaction in turbulent open channel flow with fully-resolved mobile beds

The paper presents Direct Numerical Simulations of an open channel flow laden with spherical particles at a bulk Reynolds number of 2941. The transport of thousands of mobile particles is simulated propagating over a rough bed which consists of immobile particles of the same size in hexagonal ordering. An Immersed Boundary Method is used for the numerical representation of the particles. With 22 points per diameter even the viscous scales of the flow are resolved at this Reynolds number. The reference run contains just as many fixed as mobile particles with a relative density slightly above the nominal threshold of incipient motion. Further runs were conducted with decreased mass loading and decreased Shields number together with a simulation containing only immobile particles. The variation of the parameters defining the mobile sediment yields a strong modification of particle–fluid as well as particle–particle interactions yielding different structures in space and time. This is assessed by means of appropriate statistical quantities addressing the continuous and the disperse phase. The results are in qualitative agreement with experimental observations at higher Reynolds number.     

Effects of soil cracking on the seismic response of soil–structure systems

A numerical study on the influence that cracks and discontinuities (closed cracks) can have on the seismic response of a hypothetical soil–structure system is presented and discussed. A 2-D finite-difference model of the soil was developed, considering a bilinear failure surface using a Mohr–Coulomb model. The cracks are simulated with interface elements. The soil stiffness is used to characterize the contact force that is generated when the crack closes. For the cases studied herein, it was considered that the crack does not propagate during the dynamic event. Both cases, open and closed cracks, are considered. The nonlinear behavior was accounted for approximately using equivalent linear properties calibrated against several 1-D wave propagation analyses of selected soil columns with variable depth to account for changes in depth to bed rock. Free field boundaries were used at the edges of the 2-D finite-difference model to allow for energy dissipation of the reflected waves. The effect of cracking on the seismic response was evaluated by comparing the results of site response analysis with and without crack, for several lengths and orientations. The changes in the response obtained for a single crack and a family of cracks were also evaluated. Finally, the impact that a crack may have on the structural response of nearby structures was investigated by solving the seismic-soil–structure interaction of two structures, one flexible and one rigid to bracket the response. From the results of this investigation, insight was gained regarding the effect that discontinuities may have both on the seismic response of soil deposits and on nearby soil–structure systems.     

Characterising groundwater–surface water interactions in idealised ephemeral stream systems

Transmission losses from the beds of ephemeral streams are thought to be a widespread mechanism of groundwater recharge in arid and semi-arid regions and support a range of dryland hydro-ecology. Dryland areas cover ~40% of the Earth's land surface and groundwater resources are often the main source of freshwater. It is commonly assumed that where an unsaturated zone exists beneath a stream, the interaction between surface water and groundwater is unidirectional and that groundwater does not exert a significant feedback on transmission losses. To test this assumption, we conducted a series of numerical model experiments using idealised two-dimensional channel-transects to assess the sensitivity and degree of interaction between surface and groundwater for typical dryland ephemeral stream geometries, hydraulic properties and flow regimes. We broaden the use of the term ‘stream–aquifer interactions’ to refer not just to fluxes and water exchange but also to include the ways in which the stream and aquifer have a hydraulic effect on one another. Our results indicate that deep water tables, less frequent streamflow events and/or highly permeable sediments tend to result in limited bi-directional hydraulic interaction between the stream and the underlying groundwater which, in turn, results in high amounts of infiltration. With shallower initial depth to the water table, higher streamflow frequency and/or lower bed permeability, greater ‘negative’ hydraulic feedback from the groundwater occurs which in turn results in lower amounts of infiltration. Streambed losses eventually reach a constant rate as initial water table depths increase, but only at depths of 10s of metres in some of the cases studied. Our results highlight that bi-directional stream–aquifer hydraulic interactions in ephemeral streams may be more widespread than is commonly assumed. We conclude that groundwater and surface water should be considered as connected systems for water resource management unless there is clear evidence to the contrary.     

A Damage Model of Acoustic Emission in Rock and Its Initial Application in Seismological Research

The model of the relationship of AE parameter,damage variable and strain is derived by applying the damage theory and micro-element statistical strength theory.The relation between AE characteristics during rock failure and machine stiffness is analyzed under uniaxial compression with the above model.Based on the above analysis,the internal connection among AE activity law and seisraogenic process and earthquake activity is discussed.     

The seventh facet of uncertainty: wrong assumptions,unknowns and surprises in the dynamics of human–water systems

ABSTRACT

The scientific literature has focused on uncertainty as randomness, while limited credit has been given to what we call here the “seventh facet of uncertainty”, i.e. lack of knowledge. This paper identifies three types of lack of understanding: (i) known unknowns, which are things we know we don’t know; (ii) unknown unknowns, which are things we don’t know we don’t know; and (iii) wrong assumptions, things we think we know, but we actually don’t know. Here we discuss each of these with reference to the study of the dynamics of human–water systems, which is one of the main topics of Panta Rhei, the current scientific decade of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), focusing on changes in hydrology and society. In the paper, we argue that interdisciplinary studies of socio-hydrological dynamics leading to a better understanding of human–water interactions can help in coping with wrong assumptions and known unknowns. Also, being aware of the existence of unknown unknowns, and their potential capability to generate surprises or black swans, suggests the need to complement top-down approaches, based on quantitative predictions of water-related hazards, with bottom-up approaches, based on societal vulnerabilities and possibilities of failure.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Weijs