The quantification of low-probability–high-consequences events: part I. A generic multi-risk approach

Dynamic risk processes, which involve interactions at the hazard and risk levels, have yet to be clearly understood and properly integrated into probabilistic risk assessment. While much attention has been given to this aspect lately, most studies remain limited to a small number of site-specific multi-risk scenarios. We present a generic probabilistic framework based on the sequential Monte Carlo Method to implement coinciding events and triggered chains of events (using a variant of a Markov chain), as well as time-variant vulnerability and exposure. We consider generic perils based on analogies with real ones, natural and man-made. Each simulated time series corresponds to one risk scenario, and the analysis of multiple time series allows for the probabilistic assessment of losses and for the recognition of more or less probable risk paths, including extremes or low-probability–high-consequences chains of events. We find that extreme events can be captured by adding more knowledge on potential interaction processes using in a brick-by-brick approach. We introduce the concept of risk migration matrix to evaluate how multi-risk participates to the emergence of extremes, and we show that risk migration (i.e., clustering of losses) and risk amplification (i.e., loss amplification at higher losses) are the two main causes for their occurrence.     

Probabilistic risk assessment of major accidents: application to offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico

Major accidents are low-frequency, high-consequence accidents which are not well supported by conventional statistical methods due to the scarcity of directly relevant data. Modeling and decomposition techniques such as event tree have been proved as robust alternatives as they facilitate incorporation of partially relevant near accident data–accident precursor data—in probability estimation and risk analysis of major accidents. In this study, we developed a methodology based on event tree and hierarchical Bayesian analysis to establish informative distributions for offshore blowouts using data of near accidents, such as kicks, leaks, and failure of blowout preventers collected from a variety of offshore drilling rigs. These informative distributions can be used as predictive tools to estimate relevant failure probabilities in the future. Further, having a set of near accident data of a drilling rig of interest, the informative distributions can be updated to render case-specific posterior distributions which are of great importance in quantitative risk analysis. To cope with uncertainties, we implemented the methodology in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework and applied it to risk assessment of offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico.     

A prefetching technique for prediction of porous media flows

In many applications in flows through porous media, one needs to determine the properties of subsurface to detect, monitor, or predict the actions of natural or induced forces. Here, we focus on two important subsurface properties: rock permeability and porosity. A Bayesian approach using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is well suited for reconstructing the spatial distribution of permeability and porosity, and quantifying associated uncertainty in these properties. A crucial step in this approach is the computation of a likelihood function, which involves solving a possibly nonlinear system of partial differential equations. The computation time for the likelihood function limits the number of MCMC iterations that can be performed in a practical period of time. This affects the consistency of the posterior distribution of permeability and porosity obtained by MCMC exploration. To speed-up the posterior exploration, we can use a prefetching technique, which relies on the fact that multiple likelihoods of possible states into the future in an MCMC chain can be computed ahead of time. In this paper, we show that the prefetching technique implemented on multiple processors can make the Bayesian approach computationally tractable for subsurface characterization and prediction of porous media flows.     

57Fe NCR of Fe phases in “magnetic cassiterites”

A pyralspite garnet from an anomalously magnetic concentrate of a pegmatitic cassiterite ore has been investigated using ⁵⁷Fe nuclear gamma-ray resonance spectroscopy. The quadrupole splitting and isomer shift values of 3.6 mm/s and 1.4 mm/s, respectively, are among the largest observed for Fe²⁺ ions and indicate a very low covalency of the dodecahedral Fe²⁺ — O²-bonds. These data support the more recent and lower value (10.2–10.1 kcal/ mole) of White and Moore (1972) for the CFSE of the dodecahedral Fe²⁺ ion and suggest that the CFSE should be a useful approximation to the site preference energy of Fe²⁺ for this site.     

The application of a hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal model for forecasting the SAA trapped particle flux distribution

We implement a hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal (HBST) model to forecast the daily trapped particle flux distribution over the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) region. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-15 data from 1–30 March 2008 with particle energies as >30 keV (mep0e1) and >300 keV (mep0e3) for electrons and 80–240 keV (mep0p2) and > 6900 keV (mep0p6) for protons were used as the model input to forecast the flux values on 31 March 2008. Data were transformed into logarithmic values and gridded in a 5^°×5^° longitude and latitude size to fulfill the modelling precondition. A Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) was then performed to solve the HBST Gaussian Process (GP) model by using the Gibbs sampling method. The result for this model was interpolated by a Kriging technique to achieve the whole distribution figure over the SAA region. Statistical results of the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and bias (BIAS) showed a good indicator of the HBST method. The statistical validation also indicated the high variability of particle flux values in the SAA core area. The visual validation showed a powerful combination of HBST-GP model with Kriging interpolation technique. The Kriging also produced a good quality of the distribution map of particle flux over the SAA region as indicated by its small variance value. This suggests that the model can be applied in the development of a Low Earth Orbit (LEO)-Equatorial satellite for monitoring trapped particle radiation hazard.     

Compositional variation in magma through early neogene in the Northeast Indian Ocean: A testimony from glass shards

We report unusual occurrence of glass shards with diverse morphologies and compositions in the volcanic ash associated with the early Neogene marine stratigraphic succession (early Miocene to early middle Miocene) of Andaman-Nicobar Islands, Northeast Indian Ocean. These small, ash-size (200 to 800 μm) broken pieces of glass shards when viewed under Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM), represent distinctive — platy, sickle, bicuspate, concentric, angular, horn shape and slivers with broken angular bubble wall — morphologies. Glass shards are colourless. But, a few are grey or reddish-brown, indicate high Fe content. Chilled, juvenile, angular and blocky shards show fragments of highly viscous, silicic magma. Spindle and ribbon-shape shards form from a low viscosity basalt and rhyolite. Electron Probe Micro Analyzer (EPMA) was used to measure low concentration variations of major oxides within individual amorphous silicate solid glass shards whose disordered atomic structure is that of a liquid derived from a silicate melt. Major elemental chemistry of early Miocene glass shards from Colebrook island show low silica, alkalis, high FeO_(T) MgO and CaO, whereas, early middle Miocene glass shards from Inglis island show high silica, alkalis, low FeO_(T), MgO and CaO contents. These data-sets when plotted on ternary TotalAlkali-Silica and Na₂O+K₂O-MgO-FeO_(T) diagrams show that their data plots lie within the basaltic-andesite, tephri-phonolite, rhyolite and trachyte fields. These glass shards which were present in the provenance, formed by explosive eruption of lavas, ranging in composition from basalt to rhyolite with andesite/ basalt-andesite being the most common magma types erupted sub-areally, implying island arc type of tectono-magmatic setting for the formation of these lavas. However, more evolutionary variant rhyolite was most likely formed by crystal fractionation.     

Application of Monte Carlo simulation technique for flood estimation for two catchments in New South Wales,Australia

The currently adopted rainfall-based design flood estimation method in Australia, known as design event approach (DEA), has a flaw that is widely criticized by the hydrologists. The DEA is based on the assumption that a rainfall depth of a certain frequency can be transformed to a flood peak of the same frequency by adopting the ‘representative values’ of other model input variables, such as temporal patterns and losses. To overcome the limitation associated with the DEA, this paper develops stochastic model inputs to apply Monte Carlo simulation technique (MCST) for design flood estimation. This uses data from 86 pluviograph stations and six catchments from eastern New South Wales (NSW), Australia, to regionalize the distributions of various input variables (e.g., rainfall duration, inter-event duration, intensity and temporal patterns and loss and routing characteristics) to simulate thousands of flood hydrographs using a nonlinear runoff routing model. The regionalized stochastic inputs are then applied with the MCST to two catchments in eastern NSW. The results indicate that the developed MCST provide more accurate flood quantile estimates than the DEA for the two test catchments. The particular advantage of the new MCST and stochastic design input variables is that it reduces the subjectivity in the selection of model input values in flood modeling. The developed MCST can be adapted to other parts of Australia and other countries.     

The geochemistry of pyroxenes from the lower layered series of the Jimberlana intrusion,Western Australia

Most of the Al³⁺ entering the pyroxenes does so by substituting for tetrahedral Si⁴⁺. This creates a charge imbalance that requires the simultaneous entry of Cr³⁺, Ti⁴⁺, Fe³⁺ or Al³⁺ into octahedral sites. Cr³⁺, because of its high crystal field stabilisation energy (CFSE), is the most important of these elements to enter the early-formed pyrosenes but it is replaced by Ti⁴⁺ later in fractionation when the Cr³⁺ content of the melt becomes depleted. The dependence of Cr³⁺ and Ti⁴⁺ on charge balance controls their partition between coexisting pyroxenes and olivines. Ca-rich pyroxene which contains more Al³⁺ than Ca-poor pyroxene also has more Ti⁴⁺ and Cr³⁺ whereas olivine, which contains negligible Al³⁺, has low Cr³⁺ and Ti⁴⁺. The Al³⁺ content of pyroxenes is influenced by changes in P, T, \(a_{{\text{SiO}}_{\text{2}} }\) and \(a_{{\text{Al}}_{\text{2}} {\text{O}}_{\text{3}} }\) of the magma and by the nature of the ion providing charge balance in the octahedral site. Of these \(a_{{\text{SiO}}_{\text{2}} }\) is dominant and variations in the Al³⁺ content of the Jimberlana pyroxenes correspond closely with the expected changes in the \(a_{{\text{SiO}}_{\text{2}} }\) of the melt. The substitution of divalent ions, such as Mn²⁺ and Ni²⁺, in the pyroxene lattice is by replacement of Fe²⁺ or Mg²⁺ in the octahedral M ₃ and M ₂ sites and is therefore independent of charge balance. If there are no size restrictions, the principal factor to be considered is the CFSE the ion receives in octahedral co-ordination. Ni²⁺, which receives a high CFSE, partitions strongly between the early-formed pyroxenes and olivines and therefore becomes depleted in the magma with fractionation. Conversely Mn²⁺, which receives zero CFSE, concentrates in the magma with fractionation and becomes a more important substitute in the later-formed pyroxenes. Its geochemical behaviour is controlled by its size. The narrow miscibility gap of the Jimberlana pyroxenes and the high En content of the Ca-poor pyroxenes at the bronzite pigeonite changeover suggest that these pyroxenes crystallised at a higher temperature than pyroxenes of comparable composition from other intrusions.     

Monitoring subsidence at Messara basin using radar interferometry

The Messara valley is the largest and most productive region in the island of Crete, Greece. Over the last 20 years, extensive exploitation of the aquifer mainly for agricultural purposes has led to a 40-m decrease in the level of groundwater. This investigation aims at mapping ground subsidence that might be induced by such overpumping of groundwater using conventional differential interferometry. A total of 29 ERS-1 and 2 SAR and 7 ALOS PALSAR images have been used for forming interferograms. The images used cover the period from 1992 to 2000 and 2007 to 2010, respectively. Processing of ALOS L-band data (λ = 23.6 cm) has revealed a ground motion away from the Line of Sight of the satellite (LOS direction) that amounts to at least 3 cm/year for the period 2007–2010. Piezometric measurements and other geological parameters have also been analyzed.     

Effect of chromium on phase relations in the join forsterite-anorthite-diopside in air at 1 Atm

The effect of Cr on the silicate system has been studied in air at 1 atm by adding a small amount of MgCr₂O₄ (0.2–0.5 wt.%) to the join Mg₂SiO₄ (forsterite) — CaAl₂Si₂O₈ (anorthite) — CaMgSi₂O₆ (diopside), which has been considered to form a thermal divide in the system CaO-MgO-Al₂O₃-SiO₂. The spinel primary field is enlarged compared with that in the Cr-free join at the expense of the anorthite primary field. The piercing points forsterite+anorthite+diopside+liquid and forsterite+anorthite+spinel+liquid approach each other with increasing MgCr₂O₄, meet at the join with 0.25 wt.% MgCr₂O₄ (0.20 wt.% Cr₂O₃) to form the ‘isobaric quaternary invariant point’ forsterite+anorthite+diopside+spinel+liquid, and then separate again as new ‘piercing points’ of diopside+spinel+anorthite+liquid and forsterite+diopside+ spinel+liquid. This process indicates that the join Mg₂SiO₄-CaAl₂Si₂O₈-CaMgSi₂O₆ containing more than 0.2 wt.% Cr₂O₃ cannot be a thermal divide in the basalt tetrahedron. The results of the present study show that the presence of a minor amount of Cr causes a significant effect on the phase relations and therefore, the role of Cr must be taken into account in the formulation of a petrologic model.     

Mica-feldspar equilibria in supercritical alkali chloride solutions

The equilibrium position of the reaction $$\begin{gathered} 1.5 KAlSi_3 O_8 + HCl = 0.5 KAl_3 Si_3 O_{10} (OH)_2 \hfill \\ + 3SiO_2 + KCl \hfill \\ \end{gathered} $$ has been located at 1 and 2 kb pressure and temperatures between 600° and 670° C using the Ag-AgCl buffer. These data can be combined with information on the dissociation of KC1, HC1 and H₂O to determine species abundances in supercritical aqueous fluids in equilibrium with muscovite — K-feldspar — quartz assemblages. Chloride species become increasingly associated with increasingT, increasing total molality, (m _tot or \(m_{Cl_{tot} } \) ), and decreasing \(P_{H_2 O} \) . Master variable diagrams indicate that the pH of the solutions may vary from near neutral to quite acid. Published data on the paragonite-albite-quartz reaction and exchange reactions involving feldspars and micas were included to calculate speciation in mica-feldspar-NaCl-KCl-HCl-H₂O fluids at 2kb pressure and temperatures between 300° and 600° C. The data are not accurate enough to distinguish different feldspar structural states. Concentration gradients were calculated for individual species between K-feldspar+quartz, muscovite+quartz and andalusite+quartz assemblages at 500° C, 2 kb. Assuming that the proton diffuses most rapidly and that there are no [H⁺] gradients, the molality of the solution must vary 30-fold, with feldspar+quartz at the more concentrated side. The data on mica-feldspar-chloride equilibria are used to interpret the spacial distribution of micas, feldspar and quartz in microfolds. This distribution can be accounted for by pressure solution, due to the fact that non-hydrostatic pressure affects congruently dissolving minerals, auch as quartz, differently from minerals which dissolve incongruently, such as micas and feldspars. We postulate, that during folding at constant \(P_{H_2 O} \) ,T and \(m_{Cl - } \) , gradients in KC1 and SiO₂ are created by stress differences between hinge and limb of a microfold, such that both migrate to the hinge area where quartz precipitates and muscovite is converted to K-felspar, thus accounting for the observed mineral distribution.     

Crystal chemistry of a natural schorlomite and Ti-andradites synthesized at different oxygen fugacities

Ti-andradites were synthesized at a pressure of P(H₂O)=3 kbar and temperatures of 700–800° C. Oxygen fugacities were controlled by solid state buffers (Ni/NiO; SiO₂ + Fe/Fe₂SiO₄). The Fe²⁺-and Fe³⁺-distribution was determined by low temperature Mössbauer spectroscopy. The water content was measured by a solid's moisture analyzer. The chemical composition of the synthetic and the natural sample has been determined by electron microprobe. Ti-andradites from runs at high oxygen fugacities have Fe³⁺ on octahedral and tetrahedral sites; Ti-andradites from runs at low oxygen fugacities have tetrahedrally and octahedrally coordinated Fe²⁺ as well. These “reduced” garnets must also contain Ti³⁺ on octahedral sites. Charge balance is maintained due to substitution of O^2? by (OH)^? by two mechanisms: (SiO₄)^4? ? (O₄H₄)^4? and (Fe³⁺O₆)^9? ? (Fe²⁺O₅OH)^9?. FTIR spectra of the synthetic samples do show the presence of structurally bound (OH)^?. In a natural sample tetrahedrally and octahedrally coordinated Fe³⁺ are observed together with Fe²⁺ on all three cation sites of the garnet structure.     

Zircon and sphene as fission track geochronometer and geothermometer: A reappraisal

The data published earlier on zircon and sphene fission track ages and annealing are discussed in the light of different etching conditions used for age determination and annealing experiments in order to explain the age discordances of some zircon and sphene pairs, as well as numerous closing temperatures obtained for individual minerals. Using the new set of simple etching conditions, zircon (KOH melt) and sphene (HF+HCl), the annealing experiments indicate that tracks in sphene are annealed more easily than in zircon. The closing temperature of zircon and sphene have been calculated at 300° and 250° C respectively. The study reveals that both the fission track age and the closing temperature of a mineral can vary considerably if different etchants are used. For different etching conditions the closing temperatures (T) of sphene have the following order: ^T NaOH> ^T HF+HCl+HNO₃+H₂O> ^THF+HCl>^THCl. An alternative method can be used to obtain thermal histories of rocks by selectively applying various etchants on the same mineral.     

Interaction between fluorine and silica in quenched melts on the joins SiO2-AlF3 and SiO2-NaF determined by raman spectroscopy

The solubility mechanism of fluorine in quenched SiO₂-NaF and SiO₂-AlF₃ melts has been determined with Raman spectroscopy. In the fluorine abundance range of F/(F+Si) from 0.15 to 0.5, a portion of the fluorine is exchanged with bridging oxygen in the silicate network to form Si-F bonds. In individual SiO₄-tetrahedra, one oxygen per silicon is replaced in this manner to form fluorine-bearing silicate complexes in the melt. The proportion of these complexes is nearly linearly correlated with bulk melt F/(F+Si) in the system SiO₂-AlF₃, but its abundance increases at a lower rate and nonlinearly with increasing F/(F+Si) in the system SiO₂-NaF. The process results in the formation ofnonbridging oxygen (NBO), resulting in stabilization of Si₂O ₅ ^2? units as well as metal (Na⁺ or Al³⁺) fluoride complexes in the melts. Sodium fluoride complexes are significantly more stable than those of aluminum fluoride.     

Study of ground subsidence in northwest Harris county using GPS,LiDAR, and InSAR techniques

Subsidence has been affecting many cities around the world, such as Nagoya (Japan), Venice (Italy), San Joaquin Valley and Long Beach (California), and Houston (Texas). This phenomenon can be caused by natural processes and/or human activities, including but not limited to carbonate dissolution, extraction of material from mines, soil compaction, and fluid withdrawal. Surface deformation has been an ongoing problem in the Houston Metropolitan area because of the city’s location in a passive margin where faulting and subsidence are common. Most of the previous studies attributed the causes of the surface deformation to four major mechanisms: faulting, soil compaction, salt tectonics, and fluid withdrawal (groundwater withdrawal and hydrocarbon extraction). This work assessed the surface deformation in the greater Houston area and their possible relationship with fluid withdrawal. To achieve this goal, data from three complimentary remote sensing techniques Global Positioning System (GPS), Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar were used. GPS rates for the last 17 years show a change in surface deformation patterns. High rates of subsidence in the northwestern areas (up to ~4 cm/year) and signs of uplift in the southeast are observed (up to 2 mm\year). High rates of subsidence appear to be decreasing. Contrary to previous studies in which the location of subsidence appeared to be expanding toward the northwest, current results show that the area of subsidence is shrinking and migrating toward the northeast. Digital elevation model generated from airborne LiDAR, revealed changes between salt domes and their surrounding areas. The persistent scatterer interferometry was performed using twenty-five (25) European remote sensing-1/2 scenes. Rates of change in groundwater level and hydrocarbon production were calculated using data from 261 observation wells and 658 hydrocarbon wells. A water level decline of 4 m/year was found in area of highest subsidence, this area also show ~70 million m³/year of hydrocarbon extraction. This study found strong correlation between fluid withdrawals and subsidence. Therefore, both groundwater and hydrocarbon withdrawal in northwest Harris County are considered to be the major drivers of the surface deformation.     

Characteristics of the changes in tropical cyclones influencing the South Korean region over the recent 10 years (2001–2010)

Through the investigation of tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics related to climate change, this study found that the frequency of TCs occurring over the Western North Pacific has recently decreased slightly, while their average intensity has increased. The number of overall TCs that passed within the vicinity of South Korea has also been reduced, but the number of strong typhoons in the area, those with maximum wind speeds of more than 44 m/s, has significantly increased. These changes are closely related to the following phenomena. (1) The average genesis region of TCs that influence South Korea has moved eastward. Accordingly, the TCs tend to strengthen as they move westward for long distances along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) trade easterlies and the southern boundary of the North Pacific Subtropical High (NPSH). (2) The NPSH and Asia Monsoon trough, which are known to affect TC tracks, have extended to the northwest and southeast. This has caused TCs that travel to higher latitudes and curve back toward the Korean Peninsula to become more frequent. (3) TCs have approached the Korean Peninsula without hitting land. In addition, the sea surface temperature became higher than it was before. These factors have caused TCs to maintain their strength or become stronger than before.     

Coupling of a biogeochemical model with a simultaneous heat and water model and its evaluation at an alpine meadow site

Alpine meadow covers most of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau where frozen soil is widely distributed. In order to correctly simulate the carbon, water and energy flux of an alpine meadow site at Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a widely used carbon cycle model Biome-BGC and a cold region land surface model SHAW were coupled. The outputs of the coupled model were validated with the observed carbon fluxes (Gross Primary Productivity, Net Ecosystem Exchange, Ecosystem Respiration), energy fluxes (Latent heat flux, Sensible heat flux), water flux (Evapotranspiration), soil moisture and soil temperature at A’rou site which is located on the east edge of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The results indicate that the coupled model can correctly predict the interactions between alpine meadow ecosystem and atmosphere.     

The chemical composition of tertiary Indian coal ash and its combustion behaviour – a statistical approach: Part 2

In Part 1 of the present investigation, 37 representative Eocene coal samples of Meghalaya, India were analyzed and their physico-chemical characteristics and the major oxides and minerals present in ash samples were studied for assessing the genesis of these coals. Various statistical tools were also applied to study their genesis. The datasets from Part 1 used in this investigation (Part 2) show the contribution of major oxides towards ash fusion temperatures (AFTs). The regression analysis of high temperature ash (HTA) composition and initial deformation temperature (IDT) show a definite increasing or decreasing trend, which has been used to determine the predictive indices for slagging, fouling, and abrasion propensities during combustion practices. The increase or decrease of IDT is influenced by the increase of Fe₂O₃, Al₂O₃, SiO₂, and CaO, respectively. Detrital-authigenic index (DAI) calculated from the ash composition and its relation with AFT indicates Sialoferric nature of these coals. The correlation analysis, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA) were used to study the possible fouling, slagging, and abrasion potentials in boilers during the coal combustion processes. A positive relationship between slagging and heating values of the coal has been found in this study.     

A study of Gd,Ce and Eu impurities in fluorite deposits by electron paramagnetic resonance and neutron activation analysis

In order to obtain a better understanding of fluorite deposits, rare earth impurities have been analyzed for a large number of samples taken from cross-sections of several low temperature hydrothermal veins. Two types of measurements have been used: Electron Paramagnetic Resonance (EPR) and Neutron Activation Analysis (NAA). For Gd, the ratio of spin concentrations to total concentration [Gd³⁺]/[Gd_total] is close to 1 in all the samples; on the other hand, the ratios [Eu²⁺]/[Eu_total] and [Ce³⁺ -F _? ⁱ ]/[Ce_total] exhibit large variations. The first result suggests that the major part of the lanthanides in the samples is incorporated in the crystal lattice and that clustering of lanthanides ions is not important. The behaviour of Eu and Ce is ascribed to charge state changes and symmetry state changes respectively.