Commemoration of the 15th Anniversary of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters

First published in late 2008 and currently in Volume 15(2022), Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters(AOSL) is now 15 years old. Looking back on the journey, hardships and happiness, difficulties and hope coexist.AOSL is an international journal for providing a rapid communication channel between academic communities concerned with the interdisciplinary research areas of atmospheric science, oceanography.     

国际碳税格局及其对中国的启示

本文在总结分析全球已经实施碳税的国家碳税实施情况及其效果,评价分析国内外学者对中国征收碳税的相关研究和科学观点的基础上,针对中国碳税设计提出如下建议：目前实施碳税的大多是发达国家,国际上征收碳税的舆论日益高涨,但国内对碳税征收要素研究还不透彻,依据中国的国情开征碳税环境尚不成熟,未来需要进一步加强对碳税开征各要素的调研。     

旱地农田水分收支与开发对策

根据农田水分平衡的研究结果，将产量分析扩大到所有作物，从而得出旱地喜水作物与农田水分收支的关系最密切，而耐旱作物稍差，其它作物居中，最后结合经济物价模式提出开发对策。     

信息物理系统安全问题研究进展

信息物理系统（CPS）融合控制、通信和计算等技术,使人与物理世界的交互更加便利.在智慧城市、智能电网、智能制造等领域,CPS被广泛认为是一项革命性技术.在这些应用中,由于信息安全引起的CPS系统安全问题,成为系统设计必须考虑的关键因素之一,并受到越来越多研究者的关注.本文旨在提供针对CPS安全问题研究的一种视角.首先介绍了几类具有强大破坏力的信息安全攻击,进而对现有针对这些攻击的分析、检测与防御方法进行了综述.最后讨论了CPS安全研究仍然存在的挑战.     

使用JJQ1型信号模拟器校准数据采集器问题分析

JJQ1型信号模拟器是中国气象局下发到各省的功能较为完善的自动气象站信号模拟器,从配发各省至今已有3年的时间了,尚没有省份使用该信号模拟器正式开展采集器校准工作,导致这种情况的原因是多方面的:包括校准使用的软件不合理、各通道(尤其是模拟信号通道)之间会产生信号干扰导致校准工作耗时长效率低、模拟信号随环境温度漂移大、不能兼容多数常用的数据采集器等。通过理论及试验测试分析了以上的问题,给该信号模拟器使用者和设计研发人员提出了建议和意见。     

The U.S. government response to global change: Analysis and appraisal

There is evidence that the processes of greenhouse warming, depletion of stratospheric ozone, and acid precipitation are likely to have increasingly harmful effects in the next few decades. Though there are uncertainties, we do not have the luxury of deferring all action until the predicted changes are more fully ascertained. Major policy and budgetary decisions must be reached. The situation calls for coherent, stable, but flexible policies to provide the base for coordinated interagency programs of observation, research, analysis, and regulation, as well as for international negotiations concerning global change.     

雷州半岛雷暴发生频次变化特征及其与作物布局调整的相关分析

为了探究雷州半岛作物布局调整对雷暴发生的可能影响,以达到趋利避害,利用相关分析、11种模型拟合和全变量回归分析等数理统计方法进行了分析和研究。结果表明：雷州半岛年雷暴日数总的变化趋势是明显下降,一年四季均有雷暴天气,午后热雷雨占雷暴天气的大多数,其中5～9月雷暴日数最多,开雷、收雷年际变化差异大。随着稻田的减少,糖蔗、水果种植面积的增加,雷州半岛植被结构得到改善,雷暴天数呈明显减少趋势;蔬菜的种植改变了冬季闲田植被性质,不利于冬初、春末雷暴天气的生成;花生种植面积的调整对雷暴天数变化影响不大。雷州半岛水稻、糖蔗、水果、蔬菜等主要农作物布局调整对雷暴发生可能有明显的影响,主要农作物对雷暴天数可能影响从大到小依次为糖蔗、水稻、蔬菜和水果,农作物布局调整对年开雷、收雷的迟早没有影响。     

Asking about climate change: Reflections on methodology in qualitative climate change research published in Global Environmental Change since 2000

There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change and on vulnerability and adaptation strategies in a particular region or community. But how do we research the ways in which people experience changing climatic conditions, the processes of decision-making, the actual adaptation strategies carried out and the consequences of these for actors living and dealing with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork and the number and types of interviews conducted are, for example, not always clear. Information on crucial aspects of qualitative research like researcher positionality, social positions of key informants, the use of field assistants, language issues and post-fieldwork treatment of data is also lacking in many articles. We argue that this lack of methodological information and reflections is particularly problematic in an interdisciplinary field such as climate change research and journals such as Global Environmental Change and that clearer communication is key to facilitate truly interdisciplinary dialogue.     

A design framework for creating social learning situations

Learning nurtured through experimentation is very important for enabling sustainability transitions. Over the last decade, different strands of research have investigated social learning and its associated processes to better understand learning efforts aimed at socio-technical system change. While some necessary process considerations to enable social learning have been established, actual design and organisation of experiments that aim to create a social learning situation remain largely unexplored. Against this background, this paper presents an empirical, mixed-method study that investigated a governance experiment within the Australian urban water sector. This experiment enabled widespread learning, resulting in socio-technical system change. The research reveals that social learning in particular is more complex in reality than in theory and that not all system stakeholders need to learn the same to achieve system change. Further, this paper develops a framework that outlines enabling starting conditions and features for designing and organising social learning situations. The framework comprises focus projects, multi-organisational peer groups, distributed facilitation, adaptability and flexibility, time and science/research. The key findings provide practical strategies for designing and operationalising policy and governance reform agendas that embrace learning situations.     

业务单位开展科研和技术开发工作的思考

通过对业务部门10多年来从事科研组织管理工作的分析,找出了业务单位开展科研与技术开发的对策与措施,对发挥各级气象业务部门的作用,提高气象预报服务质量,加强人才的培养,开展科研和技术开发工作是十分必要的。     

业务单位开展科研和技术开发工作的思考

通过对业务部门10多年来从事科研组织管理工作的分析,找出了业务单位开展科研与技术开发的对策与措施,对发挥各级气象业务部门的作用,提高气象预报服务质量,加强人才的培养,开展科研和技术开发工作是十分必要的。     

Heat health planning: The importance of social and community factors

Extreme heat events frequently have adverse effects on population health. Within every population certain groups and individuals are at a greater risk of heat-related morbidity and mortality than others. While certain physiological characteristics (advanced age, chronic conditions, etc.) are known to increase the risk of illness and/or death during periods of extreme heat, the role of social and community level factors in aggravating or mitigating this risk is poorly understood. This paper reviews the literature on the social and community level factors that affect heat-related morbidity and mortality in order to identify shortfalls in current heat health response plans so that new approaches can be recommended. While social isolation, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and neighborhood characteristics have all been identified as potential factors affecting the risk of heat-related illness and mortality, these are rarely, if ever, identified as heat health research priorities and are thus often neglected in heat emergency planning. Current research and programming practices are often prioritized from the top down where decisions are made at the federal level and research priorities are determined by national research bodies. This, unfortunately, may not allow enough flexibility to meet the needs of physically, socially and culturally diverse communities. A more socio-ecological approach to heat health research and planning would better allow for the identification of community level vulnerabilities and available resources and would encourage communities to work with regional or national partners to adapt response plans accordingly. The development of future plans should involve more partnerships at the community level so that social and community level factors that are currently overlooked may be included in heat health response strategies.     

主分量分析在区域性气候分型中应用的统计试验研究

主分量分析在大气科学研究中的应用日益广泛,但对其应用的可行性和可靠性的研究则比较欠缺.本文对主分量分析的三种方法,即非旋转主分量、正交旋转的方差极大法和斜交旋转的Harris-Kaiser Case ⅡB~TB法,在区域气候分型研究中的应用进行了计算分析和精度拟合,同时进行了区域分割和Monte-Carlo模拟的统计试验.结果表明,非旋转主分量的分型拟合精度不佳,两种旋转主分量方法的效果很好,其中正交旋转又优于斜交旋转.区域范围的变化对旋转主分量方法的分型结果影响不大,对非旋转主分量分析的影响较大.样本大小的变化对主分量分析的各种方法无明显影响.     

Recent climate change: Rethinking drought in the context of Forest Fire Research in Ticino, South of Switzerland

Summary We analyse trends over the past 32 years in drought variables in the context of forest fire research and climate change in Ticino, Southern Switzerland. January to April and in particular the month of March have become drier. This is the time of the year when forest fires are most frequent. Our results show an increasing trend in all climatic variables favourable to drought and forest fires, including the length of episodes without precipitation, sunshine duration and temperature, and a decrease in relative humidity. The only exception is the number of “foehn” days, which have not significantly increased.     

风沙起动形式与起动假说

风沙颗粒起动是风沙物理学与沙尘释放研究的重要内容,但是,这一领域的研究很不成熟。本文根据国内外目前的主要研究成果,讨论了风沙起动的形式,将风沙起动理论归纳为风压起动说、升力起动说、冲击起动说、压差起动说、振动起动说、斜面飞升说、猝发起动说、湍流起动说、负压起动说和涡旋起动说等10种假说。进一步将风沙起动假说归纳为以接触力为主的起动学说和以非接触力(气力)为主的起动说两大类。最后认为,风沙起动的影响因素是复杂的,各种学说都有其合理的成分,反映了真理的某个侧面,但试图仅仅靠某一种学说或某一种力来解释风沙的起动是不够完善的。风沙起动过程同时受多种力的作用,只是这些力所起的作用各异,在分析时要分清主次。再者,同一种力在不同性质(如不同密度、粒径和形状等)沙粒的起动过程中所起的作用也可能是不同的,在研究中还需要具体问题具体分析。风沙起动机制尚需全面、深入和科学的研究。     

IPCC国家温室气体清单指南精细化的主要内容和启示

作为IPCC新一轮气候变化综合评估的组成部分,IPCC国家温室气体清单指南进入了正式的精细化阶段,将在2019年形成最终成果,与现有的《IPCC2006指南》合并使用,为“适用于所有缔约方的”《巴黎协定》的实施奠定基础。精细化工作分为提供新方法、更新已有内容、补充/澄清已有内容等三大类,共有107个“精细化点”,涵盖通用方法论、能源活动、工业过程、农业林业和其他土地利用、废弃物等各个领域和部门。中国共有12名专家参与此次工作。建议中国科研工作者尽快以英文著述的形式发表相关成果,提高中国文献的引用率;鉴于中国已具备根据最新指南要求编制清单的能力,建议未来国家温室气体清单的编制尽可能全面转向《IPCC2006指南》及其增补和精细化内容。     

纽约市PM2．5研究计划（PMTACS—NY）简介

以往的研究表明,细粒子富集了大气气溶胶中的大部分有害物质,它可以进入呼吸系统并沉积于肺泡,严重影响人类健康,并且是导致环境恶化的重要因素,因此,对细粒子的研究越来越得到人们的重视。文章介绍了纽约市PM2.5研究的背景、规划,以及依规划制定的科学策略和提出的设想,详述了观测点的选择、采用的方法,并介绍了已有的初步结果,为我国同类研究提供参考。     

全球变化的主要科学问题

本文概要地介绍了全球变化国际研究计划发展的现状，论述了它的科学目标，从地球系统维持和运行机制变化规律以及人类对环境的影响等方面分析了需要进一步研究的主要科学问题，指出了实现全球变化研究目标的关键措施。     

Evaluating the Science-Policy Interface for Climate Change Research

We propose a general method for evaluating, and possibly improving, the interface between scientific research and policy-making institutions. The method considers the adequacy of both institutional structures for incorporating research, and research for addressing institutional needs. It involves both interviews (with policy makers and scientists) and formal analyses of the links between the research and the decisions described in the interviews. A case study applies the method in analyzing the usefulness of climate change research for managing salmon runs in the Pacific Northwest. It shows these policy makers to be receptive to the research, which is, in principle, relevant to them. However, they are unable to use it because the research is not currently formulated in ways compatible with current decision-making models. For their part, these models are not comprehensive enough to capture the full range of potentially relevant environmental forcers, including climate change.     

A quantitative analysis of the causes of the global climate change research distribution

During the last decades of growing scientific, political and public attention to global climate change, it has become increasingly clear that the present and projected impacts from climate change, and the ability adapt to the these changes, are not evenly distributed across the globe. This paper investigates whether the need for knowledge on climate changes in the most vulnerable regions of the world is met by the supply of knowledge measured by scientific research publications from the last decade. A quantitative analysis of more than 15,000 scientific publications from 197 countries investigates the distribution of climate change research and the potential causes of this distribution. More than 13 explanatory variables representing vulnerability, geographical, demographical, economical and institutional indicators are included in the analysis. The results show that the supply of climate change knowledge is biased toward richer countries, which are more stable and less corrupt, have higher school enrolment and expenditures on research and development, emit more carbon and are less vulnerable to climate change. Similarly, the production of knowledge, analyzed by author affiliations, is skewed away from the poorer, fragile and more vulnerable regions of the world. A quantitative keywords analysis of all publications shows that different knowledge domains and research themes dominate across regions, reflecting the divergent global concerns in relation to climate change. In general, research on climate change in more developed countries tend to focus on mitigation aspects, while in developing countries issues of adaptation and human or social impacts (droughts and diseases) dominate. Based on these findings, this paper discusses the gap between the supply of and need for climate change knowledge, the potential causes and constraints behind the imbalanced distribution of knowledge, and its implications for adaptation and policymaking.