CCSM4模式对东北气温和降水的模拟及预估

利用东北地区162个气象观测站逐月气温和降水资料对CCSM4模式的模拟性能进行了评价,并预估了2021—2050年东北地区的气候变化情景。结果表明:CCSM4模式长期历史气候模拟实验模拟的1961—2005年月平均气温、降水量值能较好地再现东北区域年平均气温、降水量的空间分布形态,但气温模拟值比观测偏低,91. 4%站点误差在1. 5℃以内;降水中心比观测略偏北,全区平均偏多35. 18 mm。2021—2050年东北区域年平均气温呈增温趋势,高纬度地区的增温幅度明显大于低纬度地区,与基准年相比,RCP2. 6、RCP4. 5和RCP8. 5情景下全区分别偏高6. 00℃、5. 86℃和6. 42℃。年降水量分布呈东南向西北递减的形态,降水大值中心出现在东南部吉林与辽宁交界处,RCP2. 6、RCP4. 5和RCP8. 5情景下全区分别偏多15. 2%、3. 1%和2. 0%。     

大旱之年河套甜瓜何以大面积死亡

影响甜瓜病害发生的环境因素很多 ,譬如气候、品种、土壤等。病菌可借风、水流等传播。中国农科院蔬菜研究所对黄瓜病害发生规律的研究表明 ,适宜病菌菌丝生长的气温范围是 1 1～ 38℃ ,相对湿度 55%～ 90 % ;以气温 2 8～ 33℃ ,相对湿度 70 %～ 85%最为适宜。今年河套地区 6～ 8月降水量为 65～88mm,比常年偏少 1 4%～ 4 3% ,但时空分布极不均匀。 6月上旬套区降水量除前旗比常年偏多 2 5%外 ,其余地区偏多 1～ 8倍 ,旬降水量在 1 0～ 2 7mm之间。这时绝大多数瓜田的瓜蔓及叶片尚未封蔽地面 ,农田通风透光好 ,未引起病害大发生。 8月上旬…     

2000年夏季（6~8月）山东天气评述

1　天气概述2 0 0 0年夏季我省的天气气候特点是 :气温偏高 ,降水偏少 ,时空分布不均 ,无全省性强降水过程 ;前期干旱严重 ,季末降水趋多。全省季平均气温 2 6.4℃ ,较常年同期偏高1 .2℃ ;季平均降水量 3 77.5ｍｍ ,较常年偏少9% ,比去年同期偏多 1 0 9.5ｍｍ ,枣庄最多 ,为798.0ｍｍ ,较常年偏多 5 6% ;长岛最少 ,仅 1 5 0 .0ｍｍ ,较常年偏少 5 4%。季降水分布 (图 1 )南多北少 ,青岛、日照、临沂、枣庄、菏泽、聊城、济宁等地市降水较常年偏多 1～ 3成 ,滨州、东营、淄博、潍坊、烟台、威海等地市偏少 2～ 4成。图 1　山东省夏季降雨量 …     

2000年春季（3~5月）山东天气评述

1　天气概述2 0 0 0年春季 (3～ 5月 )我省的天气气候特点为 :气温偏高 ,降水明显偏少。春季 ,全省平均气温为 1 4 3℃ ,较常年偏高 1 5℃。季内除5月中旬温度较常年偏低 1 2℃外 ,其余各旬均较常年偏高。尤其入春以来 ,回暖迅速 ,3月下旬全省平均气温较常年偏高 3 4℃。季平均降水量为 5 2 7ｍｍ ,较常年偏少43 % ,降水时空分布不均 ,前期、中期降水稀少 ,干旱十分严重 ,后期降水虽增多 ,旱情仍然严重。春季我省总降水量分布如图 1。 75ｍｍ以上的降水区主要分布在日照、莱芜、淄博南部 ,临沂、潍坊和青岛三市部分县 ,其中日照、泰山、…     

2000年冬季（12月—2001年2月）山东天气评述

1　天气概述2 0 0 0年冬季我省的天气气候特点是 :气温偏高 ;降水显著偏多 ,雨雪过程极为频繁 ;日照时数严重偏少 ;初冬大雾频频。全省季平均气温 0 6℃ ,比常年偏高 1 6℃。全省季平均降水量 59 9ｍｍ ,比常年偏多 1 58%。临沭最多 ,为 1 0 2 6ｍｍ ;宁津最少 ,为 2 9 4ｍｍ。季降水分布大致南多北少 (图 1 ) ,鲁南、鲁东南、鲁西南、半岛南部和东部、鲁中降水量最大 ,一般在60ｍｍ以上 ,两个最大降水中心分别位于鲁东南和半岛东端 ;鲁西北的部分地区和烟台西部降水量较小 ,一般在 30～ 40ｍｍ之间 ,但是 ,即便是降水较少的鲁西北地区 ,…     

20世纪90年代中国东北地区荒漠化的发展与区域气候变化

文中利用“吉林省陆地资源卫星遥感信息处理与应用的‘3 S’系统”,分别解译了 2 0世纪80年代与 90年代后期的 LANDSAT TM遥感信息 ,经对比分析发现 :中国东北西部地区的生态环境在恶化 ,主要表征为荒漠化 (盐渍化和沙漠化 )区域发展 ,并以经向扩展为主 ,荒漠化从 3个方面逼近中国的商品粮基地—吉林省中部松辽平原产粮区 ,对其构成严重威胁 ;哲里木盟的新开河与乌尔吉木伦河间的撂荒地明显增加。文中还计算了东北区 1 981～ 1 988年和1 989～ 1 996年两个 8a间平均气温和年、季降水量 ,经对比分析发现 :东北区是北半球欧亚大陆的第 3个高增温区 ,该区全年平均气温增高 0 .7℃以上 ,其中东北区西部的北段 (48～5 4°N)增温最为明显 (1 .0℃ ) ,中段 (44～ 48°N)增温次之 (约为 0 .9℃ ) ;东北区西部的中段是东北区降水减少的敏感带 ,年降水量平均减少 3 0 mm,其年际相对变率为 2 0 %～ 3 0 % ;而东北区西部的南段为降水量显著增加地带 (42～ 44°N) ,年降水量平均增加 44mm;东北区西部的北段降水量稍有增加 ,年平均增加 1 5 mm。研究表明 ,2 0世纪 90年代中国东北区西部对全球变化、全球增暖的区域响应为 :土地覆盖类型上的荒漠化经向发展和区域气候变化的暖干倾向 ,即中国东北区西部干旱化的主要特征     

1991～2020年四川省气候平均值的变化及业务应用评估

利用1991～2020年与1981～2010年四川省156个国家气象站地面气候平均值资料,从年、月尺度对比分析了新旧2个30 a气候平均值的差值分布特征及业务应用差异。结果表明：（1）近30 a四川省年平均气温升高了0.3℃,年内各月平均气温均升高,全省93.7%站点增温0.1～0.5℃。（2）近30 a四川省平均年降水量增多3.8 mm,年内6～10月降水量差值变化大,川西高原年降水量大部地区以增多为主,盆地和攀西地区以减少为主。（3）启用新30 a气候平均值后,四川省大部地区年、月平均气温距平有所降低,全省平均年降水量距平变化不大,但各地年、月降水量距平变化区域差异显著。（4）四川地区冬季平均气温升高,近42 a中（1981～2022年）暖冬减少6 a,冷冬增加5 a;春季平均气温升幅大,盆地常年春季开始日期提早,持续天数增加。（5）气候平均值的改变对气象要素及气候事件监测评价等业务应用有较大影响。     

高寒草原不同量级降水对干旱解除的影响

基于2017年3月1日至10月31日逐日每10 min降水量和土壤体积含水率试验数据,分析不同降水量级不同处理对土壤体积含水率的影响,结果表明:(1)小雨仅能提高0～10 cm土壤墒情,且在遮挡率超过30%时,效果明显减弱,同时地表植被覆盖能在一定程度上提高降水利用率。(2)在土壤底墒较差条件下,中雨能改善对照区、遮挡率20%和30%处理下0～10 cm土壤体积含水率;在土壤底墒较好条件下,中雨能有效补充对照区、遮挡率20%、30%和40%处理下0～30 cm土壤水分。(3)大雨条件下,在对照区、遮挡率20%、30%、40%和60%处理下,0～20 cm土壤体积含水率均有明显增加,在20～30 cm土壤层对照区、遮挡率20%、30%、40%处理下增加亦比较明显,大雨能完全解除0～30 cm土壤干旱。(4)短时强降水对土壤水分的补偿十分有限。暴雨对提高0～20 cm土壤体积含水率非常明显,但对提高20～30 cm土壤水分含量不及大雨效果明显。(5)在对照区,0～10 cm、10～20 cm和20～30 cm土层有效降水量阈值分别为2. 5、7. 0和10. 0 mm。(6)特旱、重旱、中旱和轻旱条件下,0～10 cm土层干旱解除所需的最小降水量分别为21. 5、11. 7、5. 0、1. 4 mm,10～20 cm土层所需的最小降水量分别为32. 9、18. 6、8. 6、2. 7 mm。     

三夏降雨量预报

统计我站近 2 7年的资料发现 ,立夏日有否降水与三夏期(5月下旬～ 6月中旬 )的降水量有很好的对应关系。在此基础上建立了预报指标。1　预报因子5月 5、6日 (立夏 )两天降水量≥ 0 .0ｍｍ为有降水 ,否则为无降水。2　预报对象若 5月下旬至 6月中旬 (三夏期 )的降水量≥ 5 0 .0ｍｍ为降水量偏多 ,<5 0 .0ｍｍ为降水量偏少。3　对应关系统计 1971～ 1997年的 2 7年资料 ,结果发现 :5月 5、6日两天没下雨的为 12次 ,三夏降水量偏少的为 10次 ,立夏无雨对应三夏期降水量偏少的几率为 10 12 =83.3% ;5月 5、6日两天有降水的为 15次 ,三夏降水量…     

四川省2001年气候公报

1　气候概况2 0 0 1年 ,我省年平均气温偏高 ,盆地西北部偏高幅度较大 ,其中 3、7月出现气温异常偏高天气。年总降水量 ,盆地东北部偏少明显外省内其它地区基本正常 ,但时段分布不均。今年我省盆地区数种气象灾害相继发生 ,主要为大范围秋绵雨、局部严重暴雨洪涝、出现了冬干、严重的春、夏、伏旱 ,其干旱为建国以来最严重的一年。2　主要气象要素分布2 1　年平均气温 :盆地及川西南山地 15 2～ 18 5℃ ,川西北高原 2 0～8 7℃。与常年同期气温相比 ,除盆地西北部偏高 1 0～1 4℃ ,省内其余地方偏高 0 1～ 0 8℃。2 2　各月平均气温 :…     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.