The extremely late freezing of the European Russia’s rivers in the winter 2006–2007 and climate warming

In this paper, anomalies of freezing of the European Russia’s rivers in 2006–2007 are considered. Multiyear observation data are used for analysing of trends in time series, which express terms of the first floating ice appearance in the European territory of Russia. It is shown that, in the end of the 20th and beginning of 21st centuries, a tendency of later freezing of rivers in this territory was detected. Linear equations that describe temporal trends were obtained for various rivers. Three variants of terms of the first floating ice appearance until 2020 were computed in accordance with the basic climatic scenarios. It was shown that changes in the climatologic norms are significant for all the scenarios. In comparison with the present values, future changes in the norms can reach 5 through 15 days.     

Role of sea surface temperature,Arctic sea ice and Siberian snow in forcing the atmospheric circulation in winter of 2012–2013

Climate Dynamics - During the 2012–2013 winter, the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) predominated, resulting in a cold winter over Europe and northern Asia punctuated by...     

Interannual variations of the winter‐time outcrop area of subtropical mode water in the western north pacific ocean

Abstract

Seasonal and interannual variations of the SST 16–19°C zone in the western North Pacific are described. Temperatures ranging from 16 to 19°C correspond with those of the Subtropical Mode Water (SMW) first reported and named by Masuzawa (1969). In the cooling season, this zone gradually moves southward and about December crosses latitudes 35–37°N where the Kuroshio axis lies. From January to April, the zone stagnates and spreads from the Kuroshio axis to about 28°N, i.e. to a width of about 700 km at 145°E in midwinter. This stagnation and widening are a manifestation of the existence of a thick mixed layer of SMW, i.e. the formation of a large amount of SMW, which is confirmed by several examples of the subsurface temperature distribution. In the heating season, the zone migrates northward with a narrow width as a result of the warming of the surface layer through the air‐sea interface. SST maps in March, and other related data, show the large interannual variations of the zone, especially in the sea west of the Izu Ridge.     

Effects of drought on winter wheat yield in north China during 2012�C2100

Winter wheat is one of China’s most important staple food crops, and its production is strongly influenced by weather, especially droughts. As a result, the impact of drought on the production of winter wheat is associated with the food security of China. Simulations of future climate for scenarios A2 and A1B provided by GFDL-CM2, MPI_ECHAM5, MRI_CGCM2, NCAR_CCSM3, and UKMO_HADCM3 during 2001-2100 are used to project the influence of drought on winter wheat yields in North China. Winter wheat yields are simulated using the crop model WOFOST (WOrld FOod STudies). Future changes in temperature and precipitation are analyzed. Temperature is projected to increase by 3.9-5.5 for scenario A2 and by 2.9-5.1 for scenario A1B, with fairly large interannual variability. Mean precipitation during the growing season is projected to increase by 16.7 and 8.6 mm (10 yr)-1 , with spring precipitation increasing by 9.3 and 4.8 mm (10 yr)-1 from 2012-2100 for scenarios A2 and A1B, respectively. For the next 10-30 years (2012-2040), neither the growing season precipitation nor the spring precipitation over North China is projected to increase by either scenario. Assuming constant winter wheat varieties and agricultural practices, the influence of drought induced by short rain on winter wheat yields in North China is simulated using the WOFOST crop model. The drought index is projected to decrease by 9.7% according to scenario A2 and by 10.3% according to scenario A1B during 2012-2100. This indicates that the drought influence on winter wheat yields may be relieved over that period by projected increases in rain and temperature as well as changes in the growth stage of winter wheat. However, drought may be more severe in the near future, as indicated by the results for the next 10-30 years.     

Influences of meteorological conditions on interannual variations of particulate matter pollution during winter in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei area

To investigate the interannual variations of particulate matter (PM) pollution in winter, this paper examines the pollution characteristics of PM with aerodynamic diameters of less than 2.5 and 10 μm (i.e., PM_2.5 and PM₁₀), and their relationship to meteorological conditions over the Beijing municipality, Tianjin municipality, and Hebei Province—an area called Jing–Jin–Ji (JJJ, hereinafter)—in December 2013–16. The meteorological conditions during this period are also analyzed. The regional average concentrations of PM_2.5 (PM₁₀) over the JJJ area during this period were 148.6 (236.4), 100.1 (166.4), 140.5 (204.5), and 141.7 (203.1) μg m^–3, respectively. The high occurrence frequencies of cold air outbreaks, a strong Siberian high, high wind speeds and boundary layer height, and low temperature and relative humidity, were direct meteorological causes of the low PM concentration in December 2014. A combined analysis of PM pollution and meteorological conditions implied that control measures have resulted in an effective improvement in air quality. Using the same emissions inventory in December 2013–16, a modeling analysis showed emissions of PM_2.5 to decrease by 12.7%, 8.6%, and 8.3% in December 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively, each compared with the previous year, over the JJJ area.     

Spatial and temporal variation in daily temperature indices in summer and winter seasons over India (1969–2012)

Spatial and temporal variations in summer and winter extreme temperature indices are studied by using daily maximum and minimum temperatures data from 227 surface meteorological stations well distributed over India for the period 1969–2012. For this purpose, time series for six extreme temperature indices namely, hot days (HD), very hot days (VHD), extremely hot days (EHD), cold nights (CN), very cold nights (VCN), and extremely cold nights (ECN) are calculated for all the stations. In addition, time series for mean extreme temperature indices of summer and winter seasons are also analyzed. Study reveals high variability in spatial distribution of threshold temperatures of extreme temperature indices over the country. In general, increasing trends are observed in summer hot days indices and decreasing trends in winter cold night indices over most parts of the country. The results obtained in this study indicate warming in summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures over India. Averaged over India, trends in summer hot days indices HD, VHD, and EHD are significantly increasing (+1.0, +0.64, and +0.32 days/decade, respectively) and winter cold night indices CN, VCN, and ECN are significantly decreasing (−0.93, −0.47, and −0.15 days/decade, respectively). Also, it is observed that the impact of extreme temperature is higher along the west coast for summer and east coast for winter.

     

Effects of Bubbles and Sea Spray on Air–Sea Exchange in Hurricane Conditions

The lower limit on the drag coefficient under hurricane force winds is determined by the break-up of the air–sea interface due to Kelvin–Helmholtz instability and formation of the two-phase transition layer consisting of sea spray and air bubbles. As a consequence, a regime of marginal stability develops. In this regime, the air–sea drag coefficient is determined by the turbulence characteristics of the two-phase transition layer. The upper limit on the drag coefficient is determined by the Charnock-type wave resistance. Most of the observational estimates of the drag coefficient obtained in hurricane conditions and in laboratory experiments appear to lie between the two extreme regimes: wave resistance and marginal stability.     

Specific features of heat exchange between the Black Sea and the atmosphere in winter in 1971–1991

The reanalysis ofthree-dimensional fields of water temperature and velocity ofcurrents in the Black Sea in January–March in 1971–1991 is used for studying the spatial distribution of sea surface temperature, heat content of the upper layer, and heat fluxes on the sea surface near the Caucasian coast and the southern coast of Crimea. It is demonstrated that a warm current in the upper layer of the sea and the high values of the heat flux from the sea to the atmosphere are observed in these areas in winter. The possible effect of the above features on the interannual variability of winter air temperature in Sochi and Yalta is assessed.     

Spatial and temporal characteristics of minimum temperature in winter in China during 1961–2010 from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis

Based on the surface 2?m monthly minimum temperature from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis dataset, the spatial and temporal characteristics of winter minimum temperature during 1961–2010 have been analyzed in China. Results showed that the minimum temperature in China has a significant increasing rate of 0.25° per decade calculated by the Mann–Kendall statistical test, which is consistent with the global warming trend. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals that there are three main patterns that can explain more than 57.6% of the total variance of the winter minimum temperature. The EOF1, EOF2, and EOF3 account for 34.8%, 13.5%, and 13.5% of the total inter-annual variance, respectively. The EOF1, EOF2, and EOF3 patterns are synchronous in northern China, central China, and on the Tibetan Plateau. There exist a decrease trend in the corresponding time coefficients of EOF1 and EOF2 and an increase trend in that of EOF3 since the 1960s. Both the corresponding time coefficients of EOF1 and EOF2 have significant positive correlations with the 500?hPa geopotential heights of the Arctic region and negative correlations in the regions lower than 40°N, while a significant positive correlation is found between the corresponding time coefficients of EOF3 and 500?hPa geopotential heights in the low latitudes. This suggests that rapid warming occurs in northern China and on the Tibetan Plateau, while the weakest trend locates in southeast China. Thus, warming in winter is more pronounced at higher altitudes and latitudes. These patterns are tightly connected with the atmospheric circulation.     

Climatological responses of winter precipitation in Turkey to variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation during the period 1930–2001

Summary Climatological responses of winter (DJFM) precipitation at 78 stations of Turkey to variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were investigated for the period 1930–2001. The analysis was performed with respect to relationships between precipitation and three different NAO indices (NAOIs) and composite precipitation changes corresponding to the extreme phases of the NAOIs, and individual wet conditions and drought events linked to the extreme NAOI events. Main conclusions of the study can be evaluated as follows:(a) The Ponta Delgada–Reykjavik (PD–R) NAOI is superior among the three NAOIs compared, followed by the Lisbon–Stykkisholmur/Reykjavik NAOI, with regards to its ability to control year-to-year variability in winter precipitation series and composite precipitation conditions corresponding to the extreme NAOI phases in Turkey. (b) Variability of winter precipitation at most stations in Turkey is significantly correlated with variability of the three NAOIs. Negative relationships are stronger over the Marmara, the Mediterranean Transition and the Continental Central Anatolia regions, and the Aegean part of the Mediterranean region. (c) Composite precipitation analysis exhibited an apparent opposite anomaly pattern at the majority of stations between the weak and strong phases of the NAOIs. Composite precipitation means corresponding to the weak NAOI phase are explained mostly by wetter than long-term average conditions, whereas composite precipitation responses to the strong NAOI phase mostly produce drier than long-term average conditions. (d) Composite wet (dry) conditions during the weak (strong) phase of the NAOI are significant at about 32% (69%) of 78 stations for the PD–R NAOI, and about 38% (55%) for the L–S(R) NAOI. The dry signals from the strong NAO phases are stronger and show a larger spatial coherence over Turkey. The significant signals are evident in the west, centre and south of the country. (g) Widespread severe droughts in 1943, 1957, 1973, 1974, 1983, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1993 and 1994, and widespread strong wet conditions in 1940–1942, 1956, 1963, 1966, 1969 and 1970 were linked to the extreme high- and low-index events of at least two NAOIs, respectively.     

Observed Trends in Severe Weather Conditions Based on Humidex,Wind Chill,and Heavy Rainfall Events in Canada for 1953–2012

Observed trends in severe weather conditions based on public alert statements issued by Environment Canada are examined for Canada. Changes in extreme heat and extreme cold events represented by various humidex and wind chill indices are analyzed for 1953–2012 at 126 climatological stations. Changes in heavy rainfall events based on rainfall amounts provided by tipping bucket rainfall gauges are analyzed for 1960–2012 at 285 stations. The results show that extreme heat events, defined as days with at least one hourly humidex value above 30, have increased significantly at more than 36% of the stations, most of which are located south of 55°N; days with nighttime hourly humidex values remaining above 20 have increased significantly at more than 52% of the stations, most of which are located south of 50°N. Extreme cold events represented by days with at least one hourly wind chill value below ?30 have decreased significantly at more than 76% of the stations across the country. No consistent changes were found in heavy rainfall events. Because city residents are very vulnerable to severe weather events, detailed results on changes in extreme heat, extreme cold, and heavy rainfall events are also provided for ten urban centres.     

An Analytical Formulation of the Monin–Obukhov Stability Parameter in the Atmospheric Surface Layer Under Unstable Conditions

A non-iterative analytical scheme is developed for unstable stratification that parametrizes the Monin–Obukhov stability parameter \(\zeta \) (\({=}z{/}L\), where z is the height above the ground and L is the Obukhov length) in terms of bulk Richardson number (\(Ri_B\)) within the framework of Businger–Dyer type similarity functions. The proposed scheme is valid for a wide range of roughness lengths of heat and momentum. The absolute relative error in the transfer coefficients of heat and momentum is found to be less than 1.5% as compared to those obtained from an iterative scheme for Businger–Dyer type similarity functions. An attempt has been made to extend this scheme to incorporate the similarity functions having a theoretically consistent free convection limit. Further, the performance of the scheme is evaluated using observational data from two different sites. The proposed scheme is simple, non-iterative and relatively more accurate compared to the schemes reported in the literature and can be used as a potential alternative to iterative schemes used in numerical models of the atmosphere.     

Variations of characteristics of the mean atmospheric energy level in the area of the Franz Josef Land archipelago in 1935–2012

Proposed is a method for computing the average temperature of the vertical column of the atmosphere (the temperature of the average energy level) based on some features of energy characteristics of the atmosphere and using the radiosonde data within the mid-troposphere. The modem database is supplemented with the data of radio sounding carried out at Russian upper-air stations in 1934–1959. Variations of average annual values of temperature of the mean atmospheric energy level are observed with the period of several decades and with the amplitude of 4°C in 1935–2012. Intensive decrease in the mean annual values of height-integrated temperature has been registered in recent years. Long-period variations of its average seasonal values of the same nature are registered. They are most pronounced in winter and transition seasons and are significantly reduced in summer. The observed oscillations indicate the existence of disturbance sources of long-term scale that is typical of the evolution of the anomalies of the sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic. The nature of long-term changes in the temperature of the mean energy level enables to assume the existence of a local attractor in atmospheric changes near the Franz Josef Land archipelago associated with the features of the thermal state of the North European basin and with the ice regime, first of all, in the Barents Sea. The temperature of the mean energy level depends weakly on local greenhouse effects that allows distinguishing natural (nonantropogenic) causes of atmospheric disturbances in a more explicit form.     

Variability peculiarities of distribution of transparency and suspended matter content in the northwestern part of the Black Sea in spring caused by large-scale processes in the ocean–atmosphere system

The display is considered of global processes in the ocean-atmosphere system in the variability of hydrophysical and hydrobiological fields of the northwestern part of the Black Sea in spring period of 1978–1995. It is demonstrated that the variability of North Atlantic and Southern oscillations in winter-spring period affects the spring hydrometeorological conditions in catchment areas of European rivers of the Black Sea basin causing the variability of runoff volumes of these rivers and the scales of spreading river waters at the northwestern shelf. Hydrological and hydrobiological characteristics of shelf waters varying in the process influence the formation of distribution of suspended matter content and transparency.     

Spatiotemporal distributions of δD in atmospheric water vapor based on TES Data during 2004–2009

The spatial and temporal distributions of the stable isotopes such as HD¹⁶O (or ¹H²H¹⁶O, or HDO) and H₂ ¹⁸O in atmospheric water vapor are related to evaporation in source places, vapor condensation during transport, and vapor convergence and divergence, and thus provide useful information for investigation and understanding of the global water cycle. This paper analyzes spatiotemporal variations of the content of isotope HDO (i.e., δ _D), in atmospheric water vapor, namely, δ _{D v}, and the relationship of δ _{D v} with atmospheric humidity and temperature at different levels in the troposphere, using the HDO and H₂O data retrieved from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) at seven pressure levels from 825 to 100 hPa. The results indicate that δ _{D v} has a clear zonal distribution in the troposphere and a good correspondence with atmospheric precipitable water. The results also show that δ _{D v} decreases logarithmically with atmospheric pressure and presents a decreasing trend from the equator to high latitudes and from lands to oceans. Seasonal changes of δ _{D v} exhibit regional differences. The spatial distribution and seasonal variation of δ _{D v} in the low troposphere are consistent with those in the middle troposphere, but opposite situations occur from the upper troposphere to the lower stratosphere. The correlation between δ _{D v} and temperature has a similar distribution pattern to the correlation between δ _{D v} and precipitable water in the troposphere. The stable isotope HDO in water vapor (δ _{D v}), compared with that in precipitation (δ _{D p}), is of some differences in spatial distribution and seasonal variation, and in its relationship with temperature and humidity, indicating that the impacts of stable isotopic fractionation and atmospheric circulation on the two types of stable isotopes are different.     

Impact of sub-grid variability of precipitation and canopy water storage on hydrological processes in a coupled land–atmosphere model

The impact of sub-grid variability of precipitation and canopy water storage is investigated by applying a new canopy interception scheme into the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) coupled with the Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3). Including such sub-grid variability alters the partitioning of net radiation between sensible heat flux and latent heat flux on land surface, which leads to changes in precipitation through various pathways/mechanisms. The areas with most substantial changes are Amazonia and Central Africa where convective rain is dominant and vegetation is very dense. In these areas, precipitation during December–January–February is increased by up to 2 mm/day. This increase is due to the enhanced large-scale circulation and atmospheric instability caused by including the sub-grid variability. Cloud feedback plays an important role in modifying the large-scale circulation and atmospheric instability. Turning off cloud feedback mitigates the changes in surface convergence and boundary layer height caused by inclusion of sub-grid variability of precipitation and water storage canopy, which moderate the effect on precipitation.     

Diverse influences of spring Arctic Oscillation on the following winter El Niño–Southern Oscillation in CMIP5 models

Climate Dynamics - This study evaluates the ability of 35 climate models, which participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical climate simulations, in...     

Estimate of Hydrofluorocarbon Emissions for 2012–16 in the Yangtze River Delta,China

Hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs) have been widely used in China as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances,the production and use of which are being phased out under the Montreal Protocol.China is a major consumer of HFCs around the world,with its HFC emissions in CO_2-equivalent contributing to about 18% of the global emissions for the period2012-16.Three methods are widely used to estimate the emissions of HFCs-namely,the bottom-up method,top-down method and tracer ratio method.In this study,the tracer ratio method was adopted to estimate HFC emissions in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD),using CO as a tracer.The YRD region might make a significant contribution to Chinese totals owing to its rapid economic growth.Weekly flask measurements for ten HFCs(HFC-23,HFC-32,HFC-125,HFC-134 a,HFC-143 a,HFC-152 a,HFC-227 ea,HFC-236 fa,HFC-245 fa and HFC-365 mfc) were conducted at Lin'an Regional Background Station in the YRD over the period 2012-16,and the HFC emissions were 2.4±1.4 Gg yr~(-1) for HFC-23,2.8±1.2 Gg yr~(-1) for HFC-32,2.2±1.2 Gg yr~(-1) for HFC-125,4.8±4.8 Gg yr~(-1) for HFC-134 a,0.9±0.6 Gg yr~(-1) for HFC-152 a,0.3±0.3 Gg yr~(-1) for HFC-227 ea and 0.3±0.2 Gg yr~(-1) for HFC-245 fa.The YRD total HFC emissions reached 53 Gg CO_2-e yr~(-1),contributing 34% of the national total.The per capita HFC CO_2-equivalent emissions rate was 240 kg yr-1,while the values of per unit area emissions and per million GDP emissions reached 150 Mg km~(-2)yr~(-1) and 3500 kg yr~(-1)(million CNY GDP)-1,which were much higher than national or global levels.