南方大范围雾的结构预测

利用溃变理论的V-3θ图结构方法分析了两次南方大雾天气过程,总结出南方大范围雾的结构预测方法.结果表明：用结构预测方法预测大雾天气,预测效果好、准确性高.     

不同类型云的V-3θ特征及一次航线上云变化的实例分析

能否解决飞机在恶劣环境下飞行的问题,对降低与气象有关的飞行事故和备降率具有十分重要的意义。本文运用以V-3θ图作为分析工具的数字化分析方法,分析了不同类型云的V-3θ图结构特征,并实例分析了一次航线上云的变化过程。分析结果如下:(1)V-3θ图能快速区分层云积云、能识别层状云冷暖性,同时对垂直面上不同层次是否有云、云层多高多厚等也有较好识别;(2)实例分析结果与卫星云图和天气实况作比较,效果较好。实例分析验证了文章所述方法的可行性和有效性,为下一步工作奠定了基础。     

华南后汛期暴雨的结构预测

运用溃变理论及V-3θ图结构预测法对华南后汛期台风暴雨进行预测及检验。对台风暴雨强度及落点的预测取得了较好的效果。     

Variability of subduction rates of the subtropical North Pacific mode waters

The climatology subduction rate for the entire Pacific is known, but the mechanism of interannual to decadal variation remains unclear. In this study, we calculated the annual subduction rates of three types of North Pacific subtropical mode waters using a general circulation model (LICOM1.0) for the period of 1958-2001. The model experiments focused on interannual variations of ocean dynamical processes under daily wind forcings and seasonal heat fluxes. The mode water formation region was defined by a potential vorticity minimum at outcrop locations. The model results show that two subduction rate maxima (>100 m/a) were located in the Subtropical Mode Water (STMW) and the Central Mode Water (CMW) formation regions. These regions are consistent with a climatologically calculated value. The subduction rate in the Eastern Subtropical Mode Water (ESTMW) formation region was smaller at about 75 m/a. The subduction rate shows clear interannual and decadal variations associated with oceanic dynamic variabilities. The average subduction rate of the STMW was much smaller during the period of 1981-1990 compared with other periods, while that of the CMW had a negative anomaly before 1975 and a positive anomaly after 1978. The variability agreed with Ekman and geostrophic advections and mixed layer depths. The interannual variability of the subduction rate for the ESTMW was smallest during 1970-1990, as a result of a weak wind stress curl. This paper explores how interannual signals from the atmosphere are stored in different parts of the ocean, and thus may contribute to a better understanding of feedback mechanisms for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) event.     

灰色预测模型在高层建筑物沉降预测中的应用研究

详细讨论了一阶一元灰色预测模型GM(1，1)的基本内容及建模过程，并成功地将GM(1，1)模型应用于高层建筑物沉降监测的预测预报，相应地编写了基于MATLAB的灰色系统沉降预测程序，便于实际应用。实践证明，灰色预测模型GM(1，1)在沉降预测中具有较高的应用价值。     

Response of the western North Pacific subtropical ocean to the slow-moving super typhoon Nanmadol

Based on in-situ observation, satellite and reanalysis data, responses of the western North Pacific subtropical ocean(WNPSO) to the slow-moving category 5 super typhoon Nanmadol in 2011 are analyzed. The dynamical response is dominated by near-inertial currents and Ekman currents with maximum amplitude of 0.39 m/s and 0.15 m/s, respectively. The near-inertial currents concentrated around 100 m below the sea surface and had an e-folding timescale of 4 days. The near-inertial energy propagated both upward and downward, and the vertical phase speed and wavelength were estimated to be 5 m/h and 175 m, respectively. The frequency of the near-inertial currents was blue-shifted near the surface and redshifted in ocean interior which may relate to wave propagation and/or background vorticity. The resultant surface cooling reaches -4.35℃ and happens when translation speed of Nanmadol is smaller than 3.0 m/s.When Nanmadol reaches super typhoon intensity, the cooling is less than 3.0℃ suggesting that the typhoon translation speed plays important roles as well as typhoon intensity in surface cooling. Upwelling induced by the slow-moving typhoon wind leads to typhoon track confined cooling area and the right-hand bias of cooling is slight. The mixed layer cooling and thermocline warming are induced by wind-generated upwelling and vertical entrainment. Vertical entrainment also led to mixed layer salinity increase and thermocline salinity decrease, however, mixed layer salinity decrease occurs at certain stations as well. Our results suggest that typhoon translation speed is a vital factor responsible for the oceanic thermohaline and dynamical responses, and the small Mach number(slow typhoon translation speed) facilitate development of Ekman current and upwelling.     

Ventilation of the North Pacific Ocean: Water exchange between subtropical and tropical gyres

INTRODUCTIONIntheearly 1 980 s,ventilationtheoryemergedtopredictthehorizontalandverticalstructureofthethermocline.Thereweretwodifferentviewsonthestratifiedoceans.Thefirsttheory (RhinesandYoung,1 982 ,hereafterRY ;YoungandRhines,1 982 )proposedanunventilatedmodelinwhichonlytheuppermostlayerisexposedtothesurfaceandisforcedbythewindstress.Thesecondtheory (Luytenetal.,1 983 ,hereafterLPS)offeredaventilatedmodelwhichisclosertotheclassicalthermoclinetheoriesthanthatofthefirstone (e.g .,Nee…     

A high resolution forecast model of storm surge inundation

In order to forecast storm surge inundation, a two-dimensional model is established. In the model, an alternating computation sequence method is used to solve the governing equations, and the dry and wet method is introduced to treat the moving boundary. This model is easy to use. It has a friendly input interface and Arcview GIS is used as the output interface. The model is applied to the Shantou area to simulate the storm surge elevations and inundations caused by Typhoons 6903 ane 0104 using the same relevant parameters. The calculated results agree well with the observations.     

Molecular survey of sulphate-reducing bacteria in the deep-sea sediments of the west Pacific Warm Pool

The sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) community in the deep-sea sediments of the west Pacific Warm Pool (WP) was surveyed by molecular phylogenetic analyses using primers targeting the 16S rRNA gene fragments of SRB. Specific 16S rRNA gene libraries from five sediment layers (1-cm, 3-cm, 6-cm, 10-cm and 12-cm layer) of the 12-cm core of WP-0 were constructed. The clones in the five libraries were differentiated by restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) and representative clones were selected to sequence. It was found that the clones fell into four groups, which were closest related to Desulfotomaculum, Desul- facinum, Desulfomonile and Desulfanuticus. Desulfacinum-like clones were only detected in the upper layers of the sediment core, whereas Desulfomonile-like clones were only present in the deeper layers. Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) was further carried out to visualize and count the SRB and bacteria in the five sediment layers. It was found that SRB constituted only a small proportion of the bacteria community (0.34%-1.95%), it had the highest content in the 3-cm layer (1.95%) and had a depth- related decreasing tendency along the 12- cm core.     

Redox conditions in sediments and during sedimentation in the Ontong Java Plateau, west equatorial Pacific

Redox-sensitive elements in sediments, such as manganese (Mn), vanadium (V), molybdenum (Mo), and uranium (U), are promising indicators of past redox conditions during sedimentation and early diagenesis. However, in the Ontong Java Plateau, west equatorial Pacific, there are sparse datasets of redox-sensitive elements in sediment cores. Here, we present a 250 ka record of redox sensitive elements from a 460 cm gravity core at site WP7 (3°56′S, 156°E, water depth 1 800 m), which was recovered from the southwest Ontong Java Plateau during the 1993 cruise of R/V Science I of the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IOCAS). Relative to the Post-Archean Australian Shale (PAAS), authigenic Mn, cobalt (Co), nickel (Ni), Mo, V, U, and cadmium (Cd) were found at constantly low levels except when peaks occurred at several depth intervals. Manganese, Co, Ni, and Mo concentrations were elevated at 25-35 cm due to Mn redox cycling. The core was divided into three distinct sections, the top 0-25 cm being oxic, a suboxic section at 25-35 cm and from 35-460 cm which was anoxic. Differential authigenic enrichments of Co, Ni, Mo, V, U, and Cd at the same depth intervals were observed indicating that the enrichments happened during sedimentation or diagenesis and suffered no post settlement redox changes. Therefore, no significant changes in redox conditions during sedimentation must have happened. The water at depth on the Ontong Java Plateau during past 250 ka must have been well oxygenated, possibly resulted from the more or less continuous presence of oxygen-rich deep water like the modern Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) and Antarctic Circumpolar Water (ACW); while it’s slightly less oxygenated in glacial intervals, possibly due to ventilation weakening and/or the surface productivity increase.     

Variability of tropical cyclone in high frequent occurrence regions over the western North Pacific

In this study, three high frequent occurrence regions of tropical cyclones(TCs), i.e., the northern South China Sea(the region S), the south Philippine Sea(the region P) and the region east of Taiwan Island(the region E), are defined with frequency of TC's occurrence at each grid for a 45-year period(1965–2009), where the frequency of occurrence(FO) of TCs is triple the mean value of the whole western North Pacific. Over the region S, there are decreasing trends in the FO of TCs, the number of TCs' tracks going though this region and the number of TCs' genesis in this region. Over the region P, the FO and tracks demonstrate decadal variation with periods of 10–12 year, while over the region E, a significant 4–5 years' oscillation appears in both FO and tracks. It is demonstrated that the differences of TCs' variation in these three different regions are mainly caused by the variation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) at different time scales. The westward shift of WPSH is responsible for the northwesterly anomaly over the region S which inhibits westward TC movement into the region S. On the decadal timescale, the WPSH stretches northwestward because of the anomalous anticyclone over the northwestern part of the region P, and steers more TCs reaching the region P in the greater FO years of the region P. The retreating of the WPSH on the interannual time scale is the main reason for the FO's oscillation over the region E.     

Retrieving multi-scale climatic variations from high dimensional time-series MODIS green vegetation cover in a tropical/subtropical mountainous island

【Title】
There are knowledge gaps in our understanding of vegetation responses to multi-scale climate-related variables in tropical/subtropical mountainous islands in the Asia-Pacific region. Therefore, this study investigated inter-annual vegetation dynamics and regular/irregular climate patterns in Taiwan. We applied principal component analysis （PCA） on 11 years （2001~2011） of high-dimensional monthly photosynthetically active vegetation cover （PV） derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS） and investigated the relationships between spatiotemporal patterns of the eigenvectors and loadings of each component through time and multi-scale climate-related variations. Results showed that the first five components contributed to 96.4% of the total variance. The first component （PC1, explaining 94.5% of variance） loadings, as expected, were significantly correlated with the temporal dynamics of the PV （r = 0.94）, which was mainly governed by regional climate. The temporal loadings of PC2 and PC3 （0.8% and 0.6% of variance, respectively） were significantly correlated with the temporal dynamics of the PV of forests （r = 0.72） and the farmlands （r = 0.80）, respectively. The low-order components （PC4 and PC5, 0.3% and 0.2% of variance, respectively） were closely related to the occurrence of drought （r = 0.49） and to irregular ENSO associated climate anomalies （r = -0.54）, respectively. Pronounced correlations were also observed between PC5 and the Southern Oscillation Index （SOI） with one to three months of time lags （r = -0.35 ~ -0.43, respectively）, revealing biophysical memory effects on the time-series pattern of the vegetation through ENSO-related rainfall patterns. Our findings reveal that the sensitivity of the ecosystems in this tropical/subtropical mountainous island may not only be regulated by regional climate and human activities but also be susceptible to large-scale climate anomalies which are crucial and comparable to previous large scale analyses. This study demonstrates that PCA can be an effective tool for analyzing seasonal and inter-annual variability of vegetation dynamics across this tropical/subtropical mountainous islandin the Pacific Ocean, which provides an opportunity to forecast the responses and feedbacks of terrestrial environments to future climate scenarios.     

概论机场能见度的准确预报

通过对影响能见度的因素的分析，提出了一种能见度预报方法－综合分析法，极大地提高了能见度的预报准确率。