气候变化对典型气象年数据的影响及能耗评估——以中国北方大城市天津为例

本文以中国北方城市天津为例,采用Sandia及Danish两种方法生成典型气象年（TMY）数据,并借助TRNSYS软件模拟得到3个时段（1961-1990年、1971-2000年和1981-2010年）典型办公建筑的逐时负荷,评估气候变化对典型气象年数据及模拟负荷的影响。结果表明：Sandia和Danish生成典型气象年的方法在天津均有较好的适用性,Sandia方法采用6个气象要素生成的典型气象年数据代表性满足要求。受气候变化影响,典型气象年数据变化较大,采暖期（11月-翌年3月）较制冷期（6-9月）的变化更明显;从30年均值差异看,1981-2010年相对于1961-1990年,建筑供热负荷减少5.2%,而制冷负荷增加1.6%。因此,在使用典型气象年数据进行建筑设计能耗评估时需充分考虑气候变化的影响,加快典型气象年数据的生成和更新工作。基于天津现行使用的典型气象年数据模拟得到的办公建筑制冷负荷较1981-2010年偏低6.7%,供热负荷偏高4.7%。表明采用现行典型气象年数据进行建筑能耗评估时,会造成制冷负荷偏低,供热负荷偏高,从而降低人体舒适度及造成供热能源浪费。     

典型气象年生成方法及原始气象数据质量分析

准确分析建筑热环境性能及其能耗需要代表当地平均气候状况的逐时典型气象年数据。根据我国现有的4次定时气象数据,选取建筑气候标准(GB50178-93)的7个气候区的代表城市,运用美国Sandia典型气象年方法,产生了代表城市的建筑能耗模拟分析用标准气象年数据。着重论述了针对原始气象数据的缺测情况,在生成典型气象年时的数据处理过程和质量控制原则,为建立和完善我国建筑节能用标准气象数据库提供了前期的理论分析基础。     

气象干旱指数在东北春玉米干旱监测中的改进

利用土壤相对湿度数据和县级春玉米单产数据,在气象干旱指数SWAP（standardized weighted average of precipitation）的基础上,研究我国东北地区春玉米受干旱影响的界限指标,结果表明:SWAP在春玉米播种-出苗期低于-0.9,出苗-拔节期低于-1.0,拔节-抽穗期低于-1.2,抽穗-乳熟期低于-0.7时,土壤相对湿度偏低,即气象干旱一般为中旱时,不利于春玉米生长。以此构建春玉米干旱指数,对比我国东北地区春玉米干旱指数与省级农作物干旱受灾面积的关系,发现两者相关关系显著,尤其在典型干旱年份,两者对应关系更好,说明构建的东北地区春玉米干旱指数能够较好地反映干旱对春玉米的实际影响。利用东北地区县级春玉米单产数据对春玉米干旱指数进行等级划分,划分结果可为东北地区春玉米防旱减灾和安全生产提供参考。     

基于RS和GIS天津市津南区气象灾害风险区划研究

利用2014年7月Landsat 8数据,基于RS和GIS技术对天津市津南区气象灾害进行了风险区划。结果表明:基于RS技术提取的天津市津南区高精度土地利用分类,为气象灾害评价提供了重要的基础数据;运用GIS技术将2004—2014年天津市津南区的气象观测数据、地理环境和历史灾情等基础数据整合,采用层次分析法、风险指数法及综合加权法等方法建立了二级评价指标体系,分别从致灾因子、孕灾环境、承载体脆弱性和灾害防御措施4个一级指标展开,建立了津南区各种气象灾害的风险评估模型,绘制了天津市津南区气象灾害综合风险区划图。天津市津南区气象灾害高风险区主要集中分布在人口密度大、工业产业密集及灾害防御能力薄弱的区域,如城区和大片农业种植区;而人口少和经济密度低的区域对各种气象灾害反应不敏感,属于气象灾害低风险区。     

涠洲岛旅游气候舒适度评价

利用涠洲岛1956～2011年的气象资料,采用温湿指数(THI)、风效指数(K)和着衣指数来作为旅游气候舒适度评价指标,对涠洲岛的气候特点、人体舒适度、着衣指数及影响旅游的气象因素等方面进行了分析和评价。研究结果表明:涠洲岛的旅游舒适期为7个月,舒适月为10～4月;涠洲岛的着衣指数为1～3级;影响涠洲岛旅游的不利天气因素主要有热带气旋、大风和雾等。     

热带印度洋-太平洋热力异常联合模对我国夏季降水的影响

基于我国160个台站的降水资料和西太平洋副热带高压指数,利用典型相关分析和合成分析等方法,研究了热带印度洋-太平洋热力异常联合模对我国夏季降水的影响,并探讨了该联合模与西太平洋副热带高压的关系。结果表明,该联合模对我国夏季降水有一年到半年的超前影响,且以冬季联合模对次年夏季降水的影响最显著。当冬季联合模出现正异常时,次年夏季我国四川地区、长江流域、华北南部降水偏多,而华北北部和江南大部分地区降水偏少;反之亦然。进一步分析表明,冬季热带印度洋-太平洋热力异常联合模对我国夏季降水的影响可能是通过夏季西太平洋副热带高压的变动来实现的。     

气象巨灾保险的现状、挑战、机遇与参与对策研究

气象巨灾严重影响人民生命及财产安全,本文从巨灾定义出发,利用EM-DAT数据及文献调研数据,从全球空间维度及建国以来的时间维度分析了我国气象巨灾现状;分析了全球气候变化大环境、国内外保险业发展差距、现阶段观测技术手段、气象部门参与形式等方面,分析了我国气象巨灾风险管理所面临的问题和挑战;从防灾减灾形势、应急管理体制、立法及国家战略等方面,梳理了我国气象巨灾保险发展的新机遇;梳理列举了国外主要成熟典型的气象保险制度,并对我国已有的深圳、宁波气象巨灾保险试点案例进行了比对分析;综合以上研究,给出了气象部门深度参与巨灾保险的对策建议。     

气象服务产业发展指数

正气象服务产业发展指数涉及的指标涵盖产业内部生产要素、气象服务产业影响力和产业驱动力三个方面。考虑到数据来源的可靠性、稳定性以及与气象产业发展的相关性,最终11项指标作为三级指标进入(右表)。气象服务产业发展指数很好地反映了气象服务产业     

基于智能客户端的跑步气象指数预报方法研究

通过对影响跑步的气象条件研究,从户外活动气象条件的利好程度和气象要素变化对跑步者生理产生的影响两个方面进行分析,根据气象影响因子影响程度大小,采用十分制评分法设计跑步气象指数。选取各项气象因子评分的最小值作为跑步气象指数,最小值对应的气象条件作为首要影响天气。评分制的指数设计比传统的等级式指数更能体现时空预报的精细化程度,建立了一种基于智能客户端应用的跑步气象指数预报方法,用户可根据自身对气象因素设置不同关心权重,更体现了指数的个性化和定制化功能。     

基于冬小麦农业气候分区的WOFOST模型参数标定

以1981-2010年河南省113个气象观测站影响冬小麦生长及产量形成的主要气象因素为区划指标,利用K均值聚类算法,将河南省划分为5个农业气候生态区.根据2013-2017年地面农业气象观测数据,利用Sobol全局敏感性分析方法,各分区选择总敏感指数大于0.01的作物参数,得到9种敏感参数.以产量与叶面积指数为代价函数...     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.