Temporal and spatial variability of chlorophyll concentrations in the Bering Sea using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of remote sensing data

Seasonal and interannual variability of surface chlorophyll concentration in the Bering Sea was examined using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of data obtained by the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) from 1998 to 2002. The analysis of normalized monthly fields (removing temporal and spatial monthly means) shows that different temporal and spatial patterns are evident in the eastern and western Bering Sea during the spring bloom period. The first EOF mode explains 30% of the variability and shows how the eastern shelf break region and the western Bering Sea are out of phase during the spring bloom. The second EOF mode (17.6%) indicates a pattern involving the eastern shelf break region and the Kamchatka Basin. This strong east–west signal is linked by both surface winds and light. EOF modes of wind-speed anomalies, derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), and photosynthetically active radiance (PAR) from SeaWiFS, show a similar dipole feature where the east–west pattern is related to the position and strength of the Aleutian Low pressure system. In years when the Aleutian Low shifts from west to east, weaker wind stress facilitates the development of stratification resulting in a strong spring bloom in the western Bering Sea. The variability of spring chlorophyll has a strong connection with variability in atmospheric forcing in the Bering Sea.     

The Aleutian Low, storm tracks, and winter climate variability in the Bering Sea

Previous studies have found inconsistent results regarding how wintertime conditions in the Bering Sea relate to variations in the North Pacific climate system. This problem is addressed through analysis of data from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis for the period 1950–2003. Composite patterns of sea-level pressure, 500 hPa geopotential heights, storm tracks and surface air temperature are presented for four situations: periods of strong Aleutian Low, weak Aleutian Low, warm Bering Sea air temperatures, and cold Bering Sea air temperatures. Winter temperatures in the Bering Sea are only marginally related to the strength of the Aleutian Low, and are much more sensitive to the position of the Aleutian Low and to variations in storm tracks. In particular, relatively warm temperatures are associated with either an enhanced storm track off the coast of Siberia, and hence anomalous southerly low-level flow, or an enhanced storm track entering the eastern Bering Sea from the southeast. These latter storms do not systematically affect the mean meridional winds, but rather serve to transport mild air of maritime origin over the Bering Sea. The leading indices for the North Pacific, such as the NP and PNA, are more representative of the patterns of tropospheric circulation and storm track anomalies associated with the strength of the Aleutian Low than patterns associated with warm and cold wintertime conditions in the Bering Sea.     

Ocean circulation and exchanges through the northern Bering Sea—1979–2001 model results

We have developed and run a model with sufficiently high resolution (9 km and 45 levels) and a large enough spatial domain to allow for realistic representation of flow through the narrow and shallow straits in the northern Bering Sea. This is potentially important for quantification of long-term mean and time-dependent ocean circulation, and water mass and property exchanges between the Pacific and Arctic Oceans. Over a 23 year interval (1979–2001), mean transport through Bering Strait is estimated to be 0.65 Sv. Comparison of our model results with published observations indicates that ocean circulation is not only variable at seasonal to interdecadal scales but it is also responsive to short-term atmospheric forcing. One of such events occurred during the winter of 2000–2001 with reversed oceanic flow in some areas and much reduced sea-ice cover. Analyses of eddy kinetic energy fields identify some high biological productivity regions of the Chirikov Basin coincident with persistent high energy (up to 2700 cm² s⁻² in the surface layer and up to 2600 cm² s⁻² at mid-depth) throughout the annual cycle. Model output in the Bering Strait region is validated against several time series of moored observations of water mass properties. Comparison with shipboard observations of near-bottom salinity from late winter through autumn indicates that the model reasonably represents the major water-mass properties in the region. The modeled vertical water-column structure in the northern Bering Sea allows increased understanding of the mechanisms of water transformation and transport northward through Bering Strait into the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. We conclude that the long-term model results for the northern Bering Sea provide important insights into the ocean circulation and fluxes and they are a useful frame of reference for limited observations that are short-term and/or cover only a small geographic region.     

冬季白令海海冰范围变化及其对大气响应机制研究

白令海是冬季北极海冰变化最明显的区域之一,该区域海冰的季节和长期变化与局地的气候、水文环境和生态系统密切相关,并会影响我国的天气气候过程。为了识别该区冬季海冰的长期变化,基于Hadley中心数据,采用滑动t检验和线性回归分析方法对白令海1960–2020年海冰范围的变化趋势及其空间差异进行分析,并分析了海冰变化对大气环流等大气强迫的影响。结果表明:白令海冬季海冰范围在1960–2020年显著减小,20世纪70年代和2000年前后白令海海冰范围存在显著的均值突变。其过程中伴随着阿留申低压中心低压加强、核心位置向白令海西部偏移以及对应风场分布的变化,这个过程存在一个近20 a周期的振荡。同时,太平洋年代际震荡的相位变化可以通过改变海平面气压来调节经向风,改变进入白令海的热平流,进而影响白令海冬季海冰范围。因此,阿留申低压系统和北太平洋年代际振荡对冬季白令海海冰的变化起到重要的调节作用。     

Cooling in the western Bering Sea in 1999: quick propagation of La Niña signal or compensatory processes effect?

In 1999, synoptic and hydrological conditions in the western Bering Sea were characterized by negative SST and air temperature anomalies, extensive ice coverage and late melting. Biological processes were also delayed. In 1999, the average zooplankton biomass was 1.76 g/m³, approximately half the average 3.07 g/m³ in 1998. Pacific salmon migrated to the northeastern Kamchatka streams two weeks later. This contrasts with 1997 (spring and summer) and 1998 (summer) when positive SST anomalies were widely distributed throughout the northwestern Bering Sea shelf. Since the second half of the 1990s, seasonal atmospheric processes developed over the western Bering Sea that were similar to those of the cold decades of the 1960–1970s. A meridional atmospheric circulation pattern began to replace zonal transport. Colder Arctic air masses have shifted over the Bering Sea region and shelf water temperatures have cooled considerably with the weakening of zonal atmospheric circulation. Temperature decreased in the cold intermediate layer during its renewal in winter. Besides, oceanic water inflow intensified into the Bering Sea in intermediate layers. Water temperature warmed to 4°C and a double temperature maximum existed in the warm intermediate layer in late summer in both 1997 and 1998. Opposing trends of cold water temperature and a warm intermediate layer led to an increase of vertical gradients in the main thermocline and progressing frontogenesis. It accelerates frontal transport and can be regarded as a chief cause of increased water exchange with the Pacific Ocean.     

Decadal-Scale Climate and Ecosystem Interactions in the North Pacific Ocean

Decadal-scale climate variations in the Pacific Ocean wield a strong influence on the oceanic ecosystem. Two dominant patterns of large-scale SST variability and one dominant pattern of large-scale thermocline variability can be explained as a forced oceanic response to large-scale changes in the Aleutian Low. The physical mechanisms that generate this decadal variability are still unclear, but stochastic atmospheric forcing of the ocean combined with atmospheric teleconnections from the tropics to the midlatitudes and some weak ocean-atmosphere feedbacks processes are the most plausible explanation. These observed physical variations organize the oceanic ecosystem response through large-scale basin-wide forcings that exert distinct local influences through many different processes. The regional ecosystem impacts of these local processes are discussed for the Tropical Pacific, the Central North Pacific, the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension, the Bering Sea, the Gulf of Alaska, and the California Current System regions in the context of the observed decadal climate variability. The physical ocean-atmosphere system and the oceanic ecosystem interact through many different processes. These include physical forcing of the ecosystem by changes in solar fluxes, ocean temperature, horizontal current advection, vertical mixing and upwelling, freshwater fluxes, and sea ice. These also include oceanic ecosystem forcing of the climate by attenuation of solar energy by phytoplankton absorption and atmospheric aerosol production by phytoplankton DMS fluxes. A more complete understanding of the complicated feedback processes controlling decadal variability, ocean ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling requires a concerted and organized long-term observational and modeling effort. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Autumn atmospheric preconditioning for interannual variability of wintertime sea-ice in the Okhotsk Sea

Relations in year-to-year variability between wintertime Sea-Ice Concentrations (SICs) in the Okhotsk Sea and atmospheric anomalies consisting of zonal and meridional 1000-hPa wind speeds and 850-hPa air temperatures are studied using a singular value decomposition analysis. It is revealed that the late autumn (October–November) atmospheric conditions strongly influence sea-ice variability from the same season (late autumn) through late winter (February—March), in which sea-ice extent is at its maximum. The autumn atmospheric conditions for the positive sea-ice anomalies exhibit cold air temperature anomalies over the Okhotsk Sea and wind anomalies blowing into the Okhotsk Sea from Siberia. These atmospheric conditions yield anomalous ocean-to-atmosphere heat fluxes and cold sea surface temperature anomalies in the Okhotsk Sea. Hence, these results suggest that the atmospheric conditions affect the sea-ice through heat anomalies stored in sea-ice and oceanic fields. The late autumn atmosphere conditions are related to large 700-hPa geopotential height anomalies over the Bering Sea and northern Eurasia, which are related to a stationary Rossby wave propagation over the North Pacific and that from the North Atlantic to Eurasia, respectively. In addition, the late autumn atmospheric preconditioning also plays an important role in the decreasing trend in the Okhotsk sea-ice extent observed from 1980 to the mid-1990s. Based on the lagged sea-ice response to the late autumn atmosphere, a simple seasonal prediction scheme is proposed for the February–March sea-ice extent using four-month leading atmospheric conditions. This scheme explains 45% of the variance of the Okhotsk sea-ice extent.     

Distinguishing coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions from background noise in the North Pacific

When considering physical mechanisms for decadal-timescale climate variability in the North Pacific, it is useful to describe in detail the expected response of the ocean to the chaotic atmospheric forcing. The expected response to this white-noise forcing includes strongly enhanced power in the decadal frequency band relative to higher frequencies, pronounced changes in basin-wide climate that resemble regime shifts, preferred patterns of spatial variability, and a depth-dependent profile that includes variability with a standard deviation of 0.2–0.4°C over the top 50–100 m. Weak spectral peaks are also possible, given ocean dynamics. Detecting coupled ocean–atmosphere modes of variability in the real climate system is difficult against the spectral and spatial structure of this ‘null-hypothesis’ of how the ocean and atmosphere interact, especially given the impossibility of experimentally decoupling the ocean from the atmosphere. Turning to coupled ocean–atmosphere models to address this question, a method for identifying coupled modes by using models of increasing physical complexity is illustrated. It is found that a coupled ocean–atmosphere mode accounts for enhanced variability with a time scale of 20 years/cycle in the Kuroshio extension region of the model's North Pacific. The observed Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has many similarities to the expected noise-forced response and few similarities to the model's coupled ocean–atmosphere variability. However, model deficiencies and some analyses of observations by other workers indicate that the possibility that part of the PDO arises from a coupled ocean–atmosphere mode cannot be ruled out.     

Larval fish abundance and physical forcing in the Gulf of Alaska, 1981–2003

The present study investigates ecological patterns and relationships to environmental variables among a time-series of larval fish species abundance from late spring surveys (1981–2003) in the northwest Gulf of Alaska (GOA). Links between interannual variation in species abundance and the physical environment were explored using generalized additive modeling (GAM). Trends in larval abundance and connections with physical variables displayed patterns that indicate unique and complex responses among species to environmental forcing during the larval period. In particular, the observed patterns suggest that ontogenetic-specific responses, representing sub-intervals of early life, are important. In addition, a notable degree of synchrony in larval abundance trends, and similarity in links with physical variables, were observed among species with common early life history patterns. The deepwater spawners, northern lampfish, arrowtooth flounder, and Pacific halibut, were most abundant in the study area during the 1990s, in association with enhanced wind-driven onshore and alongshore transport. Years of high abundance for Pacific cod, walleye pollock, and northern rock sole were associated with cooler winters and enhanced alongshore winds during spring. High larval abundance for spring–summer spawning rockfish species and southern rock sole seemed to be favored by warmer spring temperatures later in the time-series. This apparent exposure–response coupling seems to be connected to both local-scale and basin-scale environmental signals, to varying degrees depending on specific early life history characteristics. Understanding such ecological connections contributes to the evaluation of vulnerability and resilience among GOA species’ early life history patterns to fluctuating climate and oceanographic conditions. This investigation also provides crucial information for the identification of “environmental indicators” that may have a broad-spectrum effect on multiple species early life history stages, as well as those that may be more species-specific in exerting control on early life history survival. Of particular interest was the emergence of the EP–NP (East Pacific–North Pacific) teleconnection index as the top-ranked variable in the GAM models exploring the connections between late spring larval abundance and the physical environment. The EP–NP index represents an important and often primary mode of spring–summer atmospheric variability in the northeast Pacific, with a strong expression in the GOA, and its connection with species in this study implies that it may be a climate mode of significant ecological importance.     

Four Decadal Ocean-Atmosphere Modes in the North Pacific Revealed by Various Analysis Methods

Various statistical methods (empirical orthogonal function (EOF), rotated EOF, singular value decomposition (SVD), principal oscillation pattern (POP), complex EOF (CEOF) and joint CEOF) were applied to low-pass filtered (>7 years) sea surface temperature (SST), subsurface temperature and 500 hPa geopotential height in order to reveal standing and propagating features of decadal variations in the North Pacific. Four decadal ocean-atmosphere covariant modes were found in this study. The first mode is the well-known ENSO-like mode associated with the “Pacific-North American” atmospheric pattern, showing SST variations reversed between the tropics and the extratropics. In the western tropical Pacific, subsurface temperature variations were found to be out of phase with the SST variations. The other three modes are related to the oceanic general circulation composed of the subtropical gyre, the Alaskan gyre and the subpolar gyre, respectively. The 1988/89 event in the northern North Pacific was found to be closely associated with the subtropical gyre mode, and the atmospheric pattern associated with this mode is the Arctic Oscillation. An upper ocean heat budget analysis suggests that the surface net heat flux and mean gyre advection are important to the Alaskan gyre mode. For the subpolar gyre mode, the mean gyre advection, local Ekman pumping and surface net heat flux play important roles. Possible air-sea interactions in the North Pacific are also discussed. The oceanic signals for these decadal modes occupy a thick layer in the North Pacific, so that accumulated heat content may in turn support long-term climate variations. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Diel Changes in Vertical Distribution and Feeding Conditions of the Chaetognath Parasagitta elegans (Verill) in the Subarctic Pacific in Summer

Diel changes in vertical distribution and feeding conditions of the chaetognath Parasagitta elegans (Verill) were observed in three regions of the subarctic North Pacific in the summer of 1997. Samples were collected by repeated vertical hauls with a Vertical Multiple Plankton Sampler (VMPS) for 15–45 hours by demarcating the 0–500 m water column into four sampling layers. Integrated abundance through the entire water column and the proportion of juveniles were higher in the Bering Sea than the western and eastern subarctic Pacific. Juveniles always inhabited the surface layer in the western subarctic Pacific and Bering Sea, but they inhabited the underlying layer in the eastern subarctic Pacific. Stages I–III concentrated into the upper 150 m in the western subarctic Pacific but were distributed widely from 20–300 m in the Bering Sea. Among them, Stages II and III migrated rather synchronously over a wide vertical range in the eastern subarctic Pacific. The feeding rate of P. elegans was calculated to be 0.18 prey/chaetognath/day in the western subarctic Pacific, 0.27 prey/chaetognath/day in the Bering Sea and 0.07 prey/chaetognath/day in the eastern subarctic Pacific.     

Pacific Basin climate variability and patterns of Northeast Pacific marine fish production

A review of oceanographic and climate data from the North Pacific and Bering Sea has revealed climate events that occur on two principal time scales: a) 2–7 years (i.e. El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO), and b) inter-decadal (i.e. Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO). The timing of ENSO events and of related oceanic changes at higher latitudes were examined. The frequency of ENSO was high in the 1980s. Evidence of ENSO forcing on ocean conditions in the North Pacific (Niño North conditions) showed ENSO events were more frequently observed along the West Coast than in the western Gulf of Alaska (GOA) and Eastern Bering Sea (EBS). Time series of catches for 30 region/species groups of salmon, and recruitment data for 29 groundfish and 5 non-salmonid pelagic species, were examined for evidence of a statistical relationship with any of the time scales associated with Niño North conditions or the PDO. Some flatfish stocks exhibited high autocorrelation in recruitment coupled with a significant step in recruitment in 1977 suggesting a relationship between PDO forcing and recruitment success. Five of the dominant gadid stocks (EBS and GOA Pacific cod, Pacific hake and EBS and GOA walleye pollock) exhibited low autocorrelation in recruitment. Of these, Pacific hake, GOA walleye pollock and GOA Pacific cod exhibited significantly higher incidence of strong year classes in years associated with Niño North conditions. These findings suggest that the PDO and ENSO may play an important role in governing year-class strength of several Northeast Pacific marine fish stocks.     

Distribution of Trace Bioelements in the Subarctic North Pacific Ocean and the Bering Sea (the R/V Hakuho Maru Cruise KH-97-2)

A column concentration-high resolution inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) determination was applied to measure the total dissolved concentrations of Fe, Co, Ni, Cu and Zn in seawater collected from the subarctic North Pacific (~45°N) and the Bering Sea in July–September 1997. Total adsorbable Mn was determined on board by column electrolysis preconcentration and chemiluminescence detection. The vertical profiles for Fe, Ni and Zn were nutrient-like. The deep water concentration of Fe was ~0.5 nM in the northeast Pacific (18°-140°W) and increased to ~1 nM in the northwest Pacific (161°E) and ~2 nM in the Bering Sea (57°N, 180°E). The deep water concentrations for Ni and Zn in the Bering Sea were also 1.3–2 times higher than in the North Pacific. The profiles for Co and Cu were examined in the subarctic North Pacific, and results obtained were consistent with previous reports. There was a significant correlation between the concentrations of Co and Mn except for surface mixed layer. The profiles for total adsorbable Mn were similar to the reported profiles for total dissolvable Mn. The deep water concentration of Mn in the Bering Sea was also 4 times higher than in the North Pacific. Iron and zinc were depleted in surface water of the subarctic North Pacific. The relationship between these trace elements and nutrients suggests that these elements could be a limiting factor of phytoplankton productivity. In the Bering Sea, surface water contained ~0.3 nM of Fe. The Zn concentration, which was less than the detection limit in surface water, increased at shallower depths (~30 m) compared with the subarctic North Pacific. These results imply a higher flux of Fe and Zn to surface water in the Bering Sea. This in turn may cause the ecosystem in the Bering Sea characterized by a dominance of diatoms and high regenerated production.     

Atmospheric forcing of the southeast Bering Sea Shelf during 1995–99 in the context of a 40-year historical record

The atmospheric forcing of the Bering Sea over its eastern shelf is estimated using the 40-year record of daily data from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. This data set includes estimates of the processes responsible for the atmospheric forcing, namely the surface fluxes of momentum, sensible and latent heat, and longwave and shortwave radiation, and therefore permits quantifying effects that previously could be inferred only from the large-scale nature of the flow. The forcing in 1995–1999 is described in detail using daily time series; historical context for these results is provided with seasonal averages for the years 1959–1999.The analysis for winter concentrates on aspects related to the formation and advection of sea ice. Results indicate that the presence of sea ice is strongly related to the net surface-heat fluxes as well as the cross-shelf component of the wind. The 40-year record lacks any discernible long-term trend in the winter forcing and response. There was a notably cold period in the early to middle 1970s, and a warm period from the late 1970s into the early 1980s, but conditions during the 1990s are similar to those in the late 1950s and 1960s.The analysis for the warm season focuses on the mechanisms responsible for the variability in SST warming. Much of the intraseasonal and interannual variability in this warming can be attributed to variations in the downward shortwave radiation (solar heating). The 40-year record does indicate a long-term trend toward increased solar heating, and reduced surface latent-heat fluxes (evaporative cooling). These changes have led to August SSTs in the 1990s that are roughly 1°C warmer than in the 1960s.     

Propagation of wind and buoyancy forced density anomalies in the North Pacific: Dependence on ocean model resolution

The response of the thermocline to changes in atmospheric forcing are explored in two 50-year hindcast North Pacific model runs. The model runs only differ in their resolution and horizontal viscosity values. The thermocline response is explored through a modal decomposition. The first baroclinic mode response is qualitatively similar in both model runs, with a somewhat smaller response in the lower resolution model. This mode is primarily wind driven. The second baroclinic mode shows a larger response at midlatitudes in the low-resolution model than in the higher resolution model. This is consistent with the presence of very large-scale baroclinic instability in the return flow of the subtropical gyre at low-resolution, and represents a spurious response of the ocean model to large horizontal viscosity. This spurious mode of decadal variability in the thermocline is maintained even when there is variability in atmospheric forcing. This result suggests that care must be taken in interpretation of the realism of mid-latitude modes of variability centered in western boundary current extensions of coupled ocean–atmosphere models.     

1988-2002年黄海和渤海风浪后报

本文对黄海和渤海风浪开展长期后报实验,时间范围覆盖1988至2002年,并分析相应的区域波候特征。首先,模式输出的月平均有效波高和卫星数据比对一致。其次,我们讨论了气候态月平均有效波高和平均波周期的时空分布特征。有效波高和平均波周期的气候态空间分布都呈现出西北-东南、或由近岸向深水区增加的趋势,这种空间的分布特征和局地的风强迫和水深密切相关。同时,海浪参数的季节变化也较显著。进一步,我们统计分析了风场和有效波高的极值,给出并揭示了黄海和渤海多年一遇有效波高的空间结构,并讨论了有效波高极值和风强迫极值之间的联系。     

Atmospheric forcing of the eastern tropical Pacific: A review

The increase in marine, land surface, atmospheric and satellite data during recent decades has led to an improved understanding of the air–sea interaction processes in the eastern tropical Pacific. This is also thanks to extensive diagnoses from conceptual and coupled ocean–atmosphere numerical models. In this paper, mean fields of atmospheric variables, such as incoming solar radiation, sea level pressure, winds, wind stress curl, precipitation, evaporation, and surface energy fluxes, are derived from global atmospheric data sets in order to examine the dominant features of the low level atmospheric circulations of the region. The seasonal march of the atmospheric circulations is presented to depict the role of radiative forcing on atmospheric perturbations, especially those dominating the atmosphere at low levels.In the tropics, the trade winds constitute an important north–south energy and moisture exchange mechanism (as part of the low level branch of the Hadley circulation), that determines to a large extent the precipitation distribution in the region, i.e., that associated with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Monsoonal circulations also play an important role in determining the warm season precipitation distribution over the eastern tropical Pacific through a large variety of air–sea–land interaction mechanisms. Westward traveling waves, tropical cyclones, low latitude cold air intrusions, and other synoptic and mesoscale perturbations associated with the ITCZ are also important elements that modulate the annual rainfall cycle. The low-level jets of the Gulf of California, the Intra-Americas Sea (Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) and Chocó, Colombia are prominent features of the eastern tropical Pacific low-level circulations related to sub-regional and regional scale precipitation patterns. Observations show that the Intra-Americas Low-Level Jet intensity varies with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, however its origin and role in the westward propagation and development of disturbances that may hit the eastern tropical Pacific, such as easterly waves and tropical cyclones, are still unclear. Changes in the intensity of the trade winds in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico (associated with eastern tropical Pacific wind jets) exert an important control on precipitation by means of wind–topography interactions. Gaps in the mountains of southern Mexico and Central America allow strong wind jets to pass over the continent imprinting a unique signal in sea surface temperatures and ocean dynamics of the eastern tropical Pacific.The warm pools of the Americas constitute an important source of moisture for the North American Monsoon System. The northeastern tropical Pacific is a region of intense cyclogenetic activity, just west of the coast of Mesoamerica. Over the oceanic regions, large-scale properties of key variables such as precipitation, moisture, surface energy fluxes and wind stress curl are still uncertain, which inhibits a more comprehensive view of the region and stresses the importance of regional field experiments. Progress has been substantial in the understanding of the ocean and atmospheric dynamics of the eastern tropical Pacific, however, recent observational evidence such as that of a shallow meridional circulation cell in that region, in contrast to the classic concept of the Hadley-type deep meridional circulation, suggests that more in situ observations to validate theories are still necessary.This paper is part of a comprehensive review of the oceanography of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.     

The evolution of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies in the northeast Pacific during the El Niño and La Niña events of 1995–2001

From late 1995 through early 2001, three major interannual climate events occurred in the tropical Pacific; the 1995–97 La Niña (LN), 1997–98 El Niño (EN), and 1998–2001 LN. We analyze atmospheric and upper oceanic anomalies in the northeast Pacific (NEP) during these events, and compare them to anomalies both elsewhere in the north and tropical Pacific, and to typical EN and LN anomaly patterns. The atmospheric and oceanic anomalies varied strongly on intraseasonal and interannual scales. During the 1995–97 LN and 1997–98 EN, the Northeast Pacific was dominated by negative SLP and cyclonic wind anomalies, and by upper ocean temperature and sea surface height (SSH) anomalies. The latter were positive along the North American west coast and in the NEP thermal anomaly pool (between Hawaii, Vancouver Island, and Baja California), and negative in the central north Pacific. This atmospheric/oceanic anomaly pattern is typical of EN. An eastward shift in the atmospheric teleconnection from east Asia created EN-like anomalies in the NEP during the 1995–97 LN, well before the 1997–98 EN had begun. The persistence of negative sea-level pressure (SLP) and cyclonic wind anomalies in the NEP during the 1997–98 EN intensified pre-existing upper oceanic anomalies. Atmospheric anomalies were shifted eastward during late 1996–early 1998, leading to a similar onshore shift of oceanic anomalies. This produced exceptionally strong positive upper ocean temperature and SSH anomalies along the west coast during the 1997–98 EN, and explains the unusual coastal occurrences of several species of large pelagic warm-water fishes. The growth and eastward shift of these pre-existing anomalies does not appear to have been linked to tropical Pacific EN anomalies until late 1997, when a clear atmospheric teleconnection between the two regions developed. Prior to this, remote atmospheric impacts on the NEP were primarily from east Asia. As the 1998–2001 LN developed, NEP anomalies began reversing toward the typical LN pattern. This led to predominantly negative SLP and cyclonic wind anomalies in the NEP, and upper ocean temperature and SSH anomalies that were mainly negative along the west coast and positive in the central north Pacific. The persistence of these anomalies into mid-2001, and a number of concurrent biological changes in the NEP, suggest that a decadal climate shift may have occurred in late 1998.During 1995–2001, NEP oceanic anomalies tracked the overlying atmospheric anomalies, as indicated by the maintenance of a characteristic spatial relationship between these anomalies. In particular, wind stress curl and SSH anomalies in the NEP maintained an inverse relationship that strengthened and shifted eastward toward the west coast during late 1996–early 1998. This consistent relationship indicates that anomalous Ekman transport driven by regional atmospheric forcing was an important contributor to temperature and SSH anomalies in the NEP and CCS during the 1997–98 EN. Other studies have shown that coastal propagations originating from the tropical Pacific also may have contributed to coastal NEP anomalies during this EN. Our results indicate that at least some of this coastal anomaly signal may have been generated by regional atmospheric forcing within the NEP.     

The sequential megafaunal collapse hypothesis: Testing with existing data

Springer et al. [Springer, A.M., Estes, J.A., van Vliet, G.B., Williams, T.M., Doak, D.F., Danner, E.M., Forney, K.A., Pfister, B., 2003. Sequential megafaunal collapse in the North Pacific Ocean: an ongoing legacy of industrial whaling? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 100 (21), 12,223–12,228] hypothesized that great whales were an important prey resource for killer whales, and that the removal of fin and sperm whales by commercial whaling in the region of the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands (BSAI) in the late 1960s and 1970s led to cascading trophic interactions that caused the sequential decline of populations of harbor seal, northern fur seal, Steller sea lion and northern sea otter. This hypothesis, referred to as the Sequential Megafaunal Collapse (SMC), has stirred considerable interest because of its implication for ecosystem-based management. The SMC has the following assumptions: (1) fin whales and sperm whales were important as prey species in the Bering Sea; (2) the biomass of all large whale species (i.e., North Pacific right, fin, humpback, gray, sperm, minke and bowhead whales) was in decline in the Bering Sea in the 1960s and early 1970s; and (3) pinniped declines in the 1970s and 1980s were sequential. We concluded that the available data are not consistent with the first two assumptions of the SMC. Statistical tests of the timing of the declines do not support the assumption that pinniped declines were sequential. We propose two alternative hypotheses for the declines that are more consistent with the available data. While it is plausible, from energetic arguments, for predation by killer whales to have been an important factor in the declines of one or more of the three populations of pinnipeds and the sea otter population in the BSAI region over the last 30 years, we hypothesize that the declines in pinniped populations in the BSAI can best be understood by invoking a multiple factor hypothesis that includes both bottom–up forcing (as indicated by evidence of nutritional stress in the western Steller sea lion population) and top–down forcing (e.g., predation by killer whales, mortality incidental to commercial fishing, directed harvests). Our second hypothesis is a modification of the top–down forcing mechanism (i.e., killer whale predation on one or more of the pinniped populations and the sea otter population is mediated via the recovery of the eastern North Pacific population of the gray whale). We remain skeptical about the proposed link between commercial whaling on fin and sperm whales, which ended in the mid-1960s, and the observed decline of populations of northern fur seal, harbor seal, and Steller sea lion some 15 years later.     

A comparison of remote vs. local influence of El Niño on the coastal circulation of the northeast Pacific

A set of spatially nested circulation models is used to explore interannual change in the northeast Pacific (NEP) during 1997–2002, and remote vs. local influence of the 1997–1998 El Niño on this region. Our nested set is based on the primitive equations of motion, and includes a basin-scale model of the north Pacific at ∼40-km resolution (NPac), and a regional model of the Northeast Pacific at ∼10-km resolution. The NEP model spans an area from Baja California through the Bering Sea, from the coast to ∼2000-km offshore. In this context, “remote influence” refers to effects driven by changes in ocean velocity and temperature outside of the NEP domain; “local influence” refers to direct forcing by winds and runoff within the NEP domain. A base run of this model using hindcast winds and runoff for 1996–2002 replicates the dominant spatial modes of sea-surface height anomalies from satellite data, and coastal sea level from tide gauges. We have performed a series of sensitivity runs with the NEP model for 1997–1998, which analyze the response of coastal sea level to: (1) hindcast winds and coastal runoff, as compared to their monthly climatologies and (2) hindcast boundary conditions (from the NPac model), as compared to their monthly climatologies. Results indicate penetration of sea-surface height (SSH) from the basin-scale model into the NEP domain (e.g., remote influence), with propagation as coastal trapped waves from Baja up through Alaska. Most of the coastal sea-level anomaly off Alaska in El Niño years appears due to direct forcing by local winds and runoff (local influence), and such anomalies are much stronger than those produced off California. We quantify these effects as a function of distance along the coastline, and consider how they might impact the coastal ecosystems of the NEP.