序列衰减与余震激发研究进展及应用成果

着重于序列衰减与余震激发,系统介绍了修改的大森公式、ETAS模型及BASS模型的最新理论研究进展及应用成果。修改的大森公式是迄今为止对序列衰减的最好描述,据此可对序列衰减特征进行定量表述。大森公式本质上是一种典型的现象统计模型,但由于其参数少、计算简单,并且确实能够反映序列衰减的总体特征,因而在实际中应用广泛。ETAS模型考虑了具有统计自相似特征的次级余震激发问题,次级余震激发强度与父地震强度有关,这在物理过程方面对大森公式进行了大大的拓展。由于考虑了次级余震的激发问题,ETAS模型不但在余震序列研究方面比修改的大森公式有了明显的进展,而且在诸如平静检测、余震群集剔除、背景地震活动评估、外因触发地震活动检测等方面也有诸多应用。BASS模型遵循修改的Bath定律,而ETAS模型遵循的是与父地震震级有关的相似率,这是BASS模型与ETAS模型的最大区别,因而相对ETAS模型而言,BASS模型是一种完全自相似的理想化模型,但目前基于BASS模型的应用研究尚不多见     

新疆地区自动地震速报震级偏差分析

选取2015-2017年全国自动地震速报综合触发系统在新疆境内触发的自动速报震级[基于"多路综合触发"策略产出的综合触发结果震级（AU）],与人工速报震级数据进行偏差分析,获取研究区震级平均偏差为0.435 4,标准误差为±0.542 9,分析认为：对于新疆不同震级档和不同区域的地震,自动速报震级精准度有所不同,反映了震级偏差存在地域性与层次性;研究区自动速报震级（AU）与人工速报震级偏差小于或等于±0.3的地震约占总数的40.8%,表明自动地震速报综合触发系统在新疆区域的精准度一般,且不可靠结果均表现为自动速报震级（AU）偏大,均大于人工速报震级。     

Properties of the Aftershock Sequences of the 2003 Bingöl, M D = 6.4, (Turkey) Earthquake

Aftershock sequences of the magnitude M _{W =}6.4 Bingöl earthquake of 1 May, 2003 (Turkey) are studied to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of seismicity parameters of the b value of the frequency-magnitude distribution and the p value describing the temporal decay rate of aftershocks. The catalog taken from the KOERI contains 516 events and one month’s time interval. The b value is found as 1.49 ± 0.07 with Mc =3.2. Considering the error limits, b value is very close to the maximum b value stated in the literature. This larger value may be caused by the paucity of the larger aftershocks with magnitude M _D ≥ 5.0. Also, the aftershock area is divided into four parts in order to detect the differences in b value and the changes illustrate the heterogeneity of the aftershock region. The p value is calculated as 0.86 ± 0.11, relatively small. This small p value may be a result of the slow decay rate of the aftershock activity and the small number of aftershocks. For the fitting of a suitable model and estimation of correct values of decay parameters, the sequence is also modeled as a background seismicty rate model. Constant background activity does not appear to be important during the first month of the Bingöl aftershock sequences and this result is coherent with an average estimation of pre-existing seismicity. The results show that usage of simple modified Omori law is reasonable for the analysis. The spatial variability in b value is between 1.2 and 1.8 and p value varies from 0.6 to 1.2. Although the physical interpretation of the spatial variability of these seismicity parameters is not straightforward, the variation of b and p values can be related to the stress and slip distribution after the mainshock, respectively. The lower b values are observed in the high stress regions and to a certain extent, the largest b values are related to Holocene alluvium. The larger p values are found in some part of the aftershock area although no slip occurred after the main shock and it is interpreted that this situation may be caused by the alluvium structure of the region. These results indicate that the spatial distribution in b and p values are generally related to the rupture mechanism and material properties of an aftershock area.     

Statistical Detection and Characterization of a Deviation from the Gutenberg-Richter Distribution above Magnitude 8

— We present a quantitative statistical test for the presence of a crossover c₀ in the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake seismic moments, separating the usual power-law regime for seismic moments less than c₀ from another faster decaying regime beyond c₀. Our method is based on the transformation of the ordered sample of seismic moments into a series with uniform distribution under condition of no crossover. A simulation method allows us to estimate the statistical significance of the null hypothesis H₀ of an absence of crossover (c₀=infinity). When H₀ is rejected, we estimate the crossover c₀ using two different competing models for the second regime beyond c₀ and the simulation method. For the catalog obtained by aggregating 14 subduction zones of the Circum-Pacific Seismic Belt, our estimate of the crossover point is log(c₀)=28.14 ± 0.40 (c₀ in dyne-cm), corresponding to a crossover magnitude m_W=8.1 ± 0.3. For separate subduction zones, the corresponding estimates are substantially more uncertain, so that the null hypothesis of an identical crossover for all subduction zones cannot be rejected. Such a large value of the crossover magnitude makes it difficult to associate it directly with a seismogenic thickness as proposed by many different authors. Our measure of c₀ may substantiate the concept that the localization of strong shear deformation could propagate significantly in the lower crust and upper mantle, thus increasing the effective size beyond which one should expect a change of regime.     

主震和余震--从大森公式到ETAS模型

介绍了从描述余震发生频次的大森公式到ＥＴＡＳ模型的发展过程;给出了ＥＴＡＳ模型的主要理论,主要内容包括条件强度函数、参数估计和模型选择;讨论了ＥＴＡＳ模型在地震活动性研究中的应用情况,尤其是在前兆平静和前震研究中的应用,并对该模型的优缺点进行了评价。     

余震活动机理研究综述

从介质和应力的不均匀性、力学加载、流体侵入及应力腐蚀、速率-状态依从等几方面对余震活动机理研究进行了综述。已有的研究表明,介质和应力的不均匀性是余震产生的基本前提。瞬时蠕变和余滑观点能够从力学的角度解释震后极短时间内余震的快速衰减,而应力松弛过程更倾向于解释长期余震的活动特征。流体侵入及应力腐蚀在一定的条件下控制着余震的演化过程。受主震应力扰动影响的断层间的相互作用始终存在于余震的活动过程之中。各类模型和理论解释都在一定程度上寻求与G-R关系和修改的大森公式两个基本幂律关系的一致性。     

大连地震台面波震级偏差分析与校正

中国地震台网中心提供了一个试算的大连地震台面波震级台基校正模型。基于该模型,我们对1985年至2003年大连地震台记录的共计1357次地震进行了面波震级台基校正试算,按照不同震中距、不同震级、不同方位角分别进行了讨论,得到大多数情况下大连地震台单台实测面波震级小于国家台网面波震级的结论。     

The 9th of July 1998 Faial Island (Azores,North Atlantic) seismic sequence

The Faial earthquake (M _L 5.8) that occurred on the 9th of July, 1998, in the Azores region (north Atlantic), caused nine casualties and severe destruction affecting more than 5,000 people. The main shock was located at sea, 10 km NE of the Faial Island, and triggered a seismic sequence that lasted for several weeks and was characterized by an unusual high p-value of 1.40 for the modified Omori law. We present here the results of a joint inversion of hypocenters and 1D velocity model performed on the data collected by the permanent network complemented with a temporary network installed shortly after the occurrence of the main event. The 1D velocity model shows a heterogeneous upper crust, testified by the observed differences in site effects at the stations, while the middle crust from ∼2.5 to 8 km in depth is quite homogeneous. The Moho is located at a depth of about 12–13 km and the Vp/Vs ratio is found to be around 1.78. The events at depth are mainly concentrated in the middle-lower crust (8–12 km), while their spatial distribution shows a main cluster, visible after relocation, SSE trending. This direction of elongation is consistent with one of the fault planes (N151°E) of the centroid moment tensor (CMT) solution for the main shock. The same plane is the preferred main shock fault plane inferred after a Coulomb failure function analysis on the aftershock distribution. The main event relocation points to a focal depth shallower than 5 km. The aftershocks pattern shows that several fault systems were reactivated by the stress perturbation induced by the main shock. Besides the two main tectonic directions, trending WNW–ESE and NNW–SSE, observed in the tectonics of Faial, Pico, and S. Jorge, there is also evidence of a new tectonic direction trending WSW–ENE.     

Determination of moment magnitude from acceleration spectrum

The theoretical acceleration spectrum of observation site has been obtained from source acceleration spectrum derived from scaling law, using attenuation modelQ=Q _ν f ^η . A comparison of a set of theoretical acceleration spectra with observation spectra has been made, and we have obtained the attenuation model for observation site and seismic moment magnitude. We obtain thatQ _o=300,η=0.25 for Wuqia area, Xinjing Zizhizhou, and seismic moment magnitudes of 18 greater aftershocks of Wuqia earthquake occurred in 1985. In order to obtain seismic moment magnitued conveniently, three functional tables of acceleration spectra at 1Hz as the distances for variousQ value have been made. The seismic moment magnitude can be quickly measured from acceleration spectrum at 1Hz according to these tables (epicenter has to be known). The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,14, 435–445, 1992.     

印尼苏门答腊8.7级大震对中国陆区的影响

发生在2004年12月26日的印尼苏门答腊8．7级地震，是全球有地震台网以来100多年中记录到的少数几次特大地震之一。初步汇集了在中国陆区观测到的地震活动、地壳形变、地下流体等多学科震时和震后效应的异常变化，包括地震活动性（特别是云南地区）的显著增强；地壳形变观测，尤其是钻孔应变观测记录到地壳应力-应变的震时和震后显著变化，以及地下水温度、化学成分、特别是水位的突出变化。同时，还从库仑破裂应力触发、动态应力触发以及下地壳和上地幔流动变形机制等方面，对这些大震效应作了一些成因机理讨论。     

地震应力触发数值模拟的初步研究

本文基于有限元方法,初步建立了西南地区二维和三维数值模拟有限元模型,并针对川滇地区,重点建立了包括上地壳、下地壳、上地幔等的三维有限元模型。最后,讨论了地震产生的应力变化对整个西南地区的应力调整情况。结果表明：前一地震对后续地震有一定的触发作用。因此,强震活动有限元模型的建立对判定未来强震危险区有一定的作用。     

山西数字地震台网仿真前后震级偏差对比分析

选取山西数字地震台网2010年不同震级,不同地点的地震事件,按照中国地震局的编目要求对波形进行WA仿真处理,对比仿真前后的震级大小,找出其中存在的偏差,为地震资料的衔接提供参考.     

Self-affine growth pattern of earthquake rupture zones

Data from 41 moderate and large earthquakes have been used to derive a scaling law for fault parameters. Fault lengthL, widthW and areaS are empirically related byLS andWS where 0.6<<0.7, 0.3<<0.4 and +=1. These relations indicate that the growth pattern of earthquake rupture zones is statistically self-affine. It is also found that these relations are similar to the relation derived from a diffusion-limited aggregation (DLA) model with anisotropic sticking probability. This suggests that a modified DLA model could describe the evolution of earthquake rupture zones.     

地下流体对地震孕育发生过程的影响研究综述

地下流体对地震的孕育、发生过程起着重要作用.本文简述了近年来国内外关于地下流体影响地震的研究进展,对流体诱发地震的物理机制进行了深入介绍,主要有孔隙压的增加对有效应力的降低、流体受热膨胀扩容以及对岩石的润滑和软化作用;同时介绍了一些典型的流体触发地震模式,包括地震泵、断层阀、膨胀—扩散模式等,并讨论了目前存在的主要问题...     

关于应力触发地震机理的讨论

应力触发地震问题的研究对于地震机理和预测具有重要的意义。 该文围绕潮汐力触发和地震应力触发问题, 简要回顾应力触发地震的野外观测与研究概况, 综述应力触发实验和模拟取得的成果, 简述新的实验结果, 并在此基础上探讨应力触发地震的机理, 分析取得的进展和存在的主要问题。     

断-块模型中走滑型地震应力触发研究——以青藏高原北部几次强震为例

从发震断层与活动块体的分布关系出发,以青藏高原北部地区几次强震为例,研究了介质非连续的断－块构造模型中地震永久位移造成的区域断层静库仑应力变化．研究表明,在断块构造模型中,走滑型为主的地震位错引起的区域断层库仑应力变化在地震破裂面以外随距离衰减很快,影响范围仅为几十公里,和余震分布尺度相当;对有地表破裂数据的1937年M7.5花石峡地震、1997年M7.5玛尼地震和2001年M7.8可可西里地震的模拟结果显示,先前地震的断层位移在后续地震断层面所造成的库仑应力甚微,预示了远距离地震之间的静应力触发效应不明显．