Time probabilistic evaluation of seismically induced landslide hazard in Irpinia (Southern Italy)

A recently proposed method, which incorporates the Newmark model to evaluate the earthquake-induced landslide hazard at regional scale, was applied to Irpinia, one of the most seismically active regions of Italy. The method adopts a probabilistic approach to calculate values of critical acceleration a_c representing the minimum strength required for a slope not to fail at a fixed probability level in a given time interval. Regional probabilistic hazard maps were generated for the two failure types most common in Irpinia (slump–earthflows and rock falls). The results suggest that quite moderate critical acceleration (0.05–0.08 g) could suffice to keep the slope failure probability low. However, the available data indicate that potential slide surfaces with a_c below these values could be common in Irpinia, where, perhaps in relation to particular geo-environmental conditions, a relative large number of marginally stable slopes might survive other destabilising actions and fail even on occasion of not particularly strong earthquake shaking.     

Empirical nonergodic shaking scenarios based on spatial correlation models: An application to central Italy

This paper provides a new methodological framework to generate empirical ground shaking scenarios, designed for engineering applications and civil protection planning. The methodology is useful both to reconstruct the ground motion pattern of past events and to generate future shaking scenarios, in regions where strong‐motion datasets from multiple events and multiple stations are available. The proposed methodology combines (1) an ad‐hoc nonergodic ground motion model (GMM) with (2) a spatial correlation model for the source region‐, site‐, and path‐systematic residual terms, and (3) a model of the remaining aleatory error to take into account for directivity effects. The associated variability is a function of the type of scenario generated (bedrock or site, past or future event) and it is minimal for source areas where several events have occurred and for sites where recordings are available. In order to develop the region‐specific fully nonergodic GMM and to compute robust estimation of the residual terms, the approach is calibrated on a highly dense dataset compiled for the area of central Italy. Example tests demonstrate the validity of the approach, which allows to simulate acceleration response spectra at unsampled sites, as well as to capture peculiar physical features of ground motion patterns in the region. The proposed approach could be usefully adopted for data‐driven simulations of ground shaking maps, as alternative or complementary tool to physic‐based and stochastic‐based approaches.     

Prediction of landslide occurrence based on slope-instability analysis and hydrological model simulation

Hillslope failure usually occurs as soil resistance deteriorates in the presence of the acting stress developed by a rising groundwater level during rainstorms. The present study adopted a slope-instability analysis and a hydrological model for landslide prediction during heavy rainstorms. Variation of the groundwater table on hillslope was simulated by using the hydrological model and then the temporal groundwater level at each grid was substituted into the slope-instability analysis to determine the instability of the grids in watersheds for prediction of massive landslides.Hydrological records from two landslide-prone areas in northern Taiwan were collected. Digital elevation model was adopted to obtain the geomorphologic factors required for the slope-instability analysis and the hydrological model. The spatial distribution of soil thickness required for performing the infinite slope model was estimated by using a wetness index. Results showed that the temporal variation of the percentage of unstable grids in the study watersheds basically followed the variation of rainfall hyetographs. The percentage of the unstable grids reached a maximum value when the centroid of the hyetograph passed. A comparison between the landslide records and the model analytical results revealed that a massive landslide might occur if more than 50% of the grids in the subwatershed were classified as unstable in the study areas. The predicted time and location of landslide occurrence were consistent with those obtained from field investigations. It is therefore considered promising to apply the developed analytical method for landslide warning to alleviate the loss of lives and property.     

Conditional risk based on multivariate hazard scenarios

We present a novel methodology to compute conditional risk measures when the conditioning event depends on a number of random variables. Specifically, given a random vector \((\mathbf {X},Y)\), we consider risk measures that express the risk of Y given that \(\mathbf {X}\) assumes values in an extreme multidimensional region. In particular, the considered risky regions are related to the AND, OR, Kendall and Survival Kendall hazard scenarios that are commonly used in environmental literature. Several closed formulas are considered (especially in the AND and OR scenarios). An application to spatial risk analysis involving real data is discussed.     

Seismic analysis of deep tunnels in near fault conditions: a case study in Southern Italy

The importance of underground structures in transportation and utility networks makes their vulnerability to earthquakes a sensitive issue. Underground facilities are usually less vulnerable to earthquakes compared to above-ground structures, but the associated risk may be relevant, since even a low level of damage may affect the serviceability of a wide network. Seismic analysis of tunnels close to seismogenic faults is a complex problem, which is often neglected at the design stage for the lack of specific codes or guidelines for the design of underground structures in seismic conditions and also because, as mentioned above, underground structures are considered less vulnerable to earthquake loading. This paper investigates the seismic response of deep tunnels focusing on the required steps for a proper design under both static and dynamic loading. The study aims at contributing to improve the methods currently used for the seismic analysis of underground structures. At this purpose, the seismic response of a deep tunnel in Southern Italy has been investigated along the transversal direction. The infrastructure is part of the railway switch line connecting Caserta to Foggia in the Southern Apennines which is one of the most active seismic regions in Italy. The seismic response in the transversal direction has been analysed by using the pseudo-static approach as well as through advanced numerical modeling using the spectral element method coupled with a kinematic approach for finite fault simulations. The pseudo-static approach has been implemented using a closed-form analytical solution. The results obtained from advanced numerical modeling and the pseudo-static method have been compared to assess their validity and limitations.     

Volcanic geomorphology and tectonics of the Aeolian archipelago (Southern Italy) based on integrated DEM data

The geomorphological and morphometric analysis of the sea floor topography surrounding the Aeolian Islands, South Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy, provides insights into the relationships between the volcanological evolution of the islands and their tectonic features. We constructed geomorphological maps of the submarine portions of the seven large edifices constituting the islands on the basis of a DEM with a 5 m resolution step. These maps include constructional and destructional landforms such as submarine volcanic vents located west of Lipari and north of Alicudi, and hummocky surfaces recognised north of Lipari and Salina. The latter landforms, together with the occurrence of large scars affecting the main edifices on land, suggest that sector collapses affected some islands. Geomorphological data indicate that the location of subaerial and submarine vents is strongly controlled by local tectonic structures striking WNW-ESE (Alicudi-Filicudi sector), NNW-SSE (Salina-Lipari-Vulcano sector) and NE-SW (Panarea-Stromboli sector). The islands can be divided into two groups on the basis of some morphometric parameters: a first group with a pancake-like shape, Dp/D (abrasion platform diameter/basal diameter) higher than 0.40 and H/D (total height/basal diameter) lower than 0.13, and a second group with a conical shape, characterised by Dp/D lower than 0.34 and H/D higher than 0.14. These ratios and other morphometric parameters reflect the different volcanological and structural evolution of the Aeolian Islands. The pancake-like shaped complexes have been created, in addition to their submarine stage, by extrusive and highly explosive activity, whereas the cone-shaped edifices have been characterised by effusive or moderate explosive activity.Editorial responsibility: C Kilburn     

Intensity attenuation in the Campania region,Southern Italy

Ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) in terms of macroseismic intensity are a prerequisite for intensity-based shake maps and seismic hazard assessment and have the advantage of direct relation to earthquake damage and good data availability also for historical events. In this study, we derive GMPE for macroseismic intensity for the Campania region in southern Italy. This region is highly exposed to the seismic hazard related to the high seismicity with moderate- to large-magnitude earthquakes in the Appenninic belt. The relations are based on physical considerations and are easy to implement for the user. The uncertainties in earthquake source parameters are accounted for through a Monte Carlo approach and results are compared to those obtained through a standard regression scheme. One relation takes into account the finite dimensions of the fault plane and describes the site intensity as a function of Joyner–Boore distance. Additionally, a relation describing the intensity as a function of epicentral distance is derived for implementation in cases where the dimensions of the fault plane are unknown. The relations are based on an extensive dataset of macroseismic intensities for large earthquakes in the Campania region and are valid in the magnitude range M _w = 6.3–7.0 for shallow crustal earthquakes. Results indicate that the uncertainties in earthquake source parameters are negligible in comparison to the spread in the intensity data. The GMPE provide a good overall fit to historical earthquakes in the region and can provide the intensities for a future earthquake within 1 intensity unit.     

Landslide stability analysis based on random-fuzzy reliability: taking Liangshuijing landslide as a case

A large number of reservoir landslides will be impacted under the action of cyclical water level change in Three Gorges Reservoir, therefore its stability analysis and evaluation are important. And various kinds of influencing factors should be considered when landslide stability is analyzed. Taking Liangshuijing landslide as a case, considering the uncertain factors in the landslide stability analysis process, the landslide random-fuzzy reliability is analyzed in the paper, based on the sliding soil shear strength parameters testing and groundwater monitoring data. The results show that the landslide random-fuzzy reliability is the smallest at the process of high water level slowly dropping to low water level, and the landslide is basically at a steady state, which is consistent with landslide body actual deformation. Taking into account the uncertainty of groundwater level in a landslide body is equivalent to taking into account the changes of occurrence conditions in landslide rock and soil. Taking these factors into account is more in line with the actual when compared with only considering shear strength parameters random properties.     

The role of the seismic trigger in the Calitri landslide (Italy): historical reconstruction and dynamic analysis

The study covered by this paper was focused on the historical case of the Calitri landslide, which was repeatedly reactivated by earthquakes, as reported since 1694. The town of Calitri (Southern Italy) is located on a ridge whose southern slope, from its top to the Ofanto river valley floor, has been historically affected by major landsliding. The last record of recurrence of the Calitri landslide leads back to the 1980 Irpinia earthquake, which caused significant damage to the town and had pervasive and visible ground effects. Based on a detailed historical reconstruction of landsliding and seismicity at Calitri, the study analysed the current static and dynamic stability of the landsliding slope by means of a finite-difference numerical analysis, taking into account the various factors of landslide initiation and kinematics. The results of the numerical analysis: (i) were consistent with the roto-translational mechanism observed upon the latest reactivation of the landslide; (ii) demonstrated that excess pore pressure redistribution caused a lag between the seismic trigger and the initiation of landsliding; and (iii) showed the impact of seismic input frequency on propagation and depth of slope instability.     

Surface deformation analysis in the Ischia Island (Italy) based on spaceborne radar interferometry

The island of Ischia, located at the northwestern end of the Gulf of Napoli (Italy), is a volcanic area that is historically active (the Arso eruption, in 1302 and the Casamicciola earthquake, in 1883) and has diffuse hydrothermal phenomena. We present in this work a study of the surface deformation occurring in the island, which is based on applying the Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (DInSAR) algorithm referred to as Small BAseline Subset (SBAS) technique. This study is focused on the 1992–2003 time interval and SAR data acquired by the European Remote Sensing (ERS) satellites from ascending and descending orbits have been used, thus allowing us to discriminate the vertical and east–west components of the displacements. A validation of the DInSAR results has been carried out first by comparing the vertical deformations estimated from the SAR data with those measured from the spirit leveling network that is present in the area. In particular, we computed the difference between the mean vertical deformation velocities estimated from the SAR and the corresponding geodetic measurements along three main leveling lines; the maximum value of the root mean square difference is of about 1 mm/yr. The final discussion is dedicated to the interpretation of the detected displacements, benefiting from the overall information extracted from the ascending and descending DInSAR measurements. In particular, DInSAR data relative to the vertical deformation component show that the present-day subsidence of Ischia mainly develops in areas characterized by active landsliding and along faults; moreover, the deflation of the island, which is recorded by the horizontal displacement component, is probably related to the de-pressurization of the hydrothermal system.     

Earthquake-induced landslide displacement attenuation models and application in probabilistic seismic landslide displacement analysis

A landslide displacement (DLL) attenuation model has been developed using spectral intensity and a ratio of critical acceleration coefficient to ground acceleration coefficient. In the development of the model,a New Zealand earthquake record data set with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.2 within a source distance of 175 km is used. The model can be used to carry out deterministic landslide displacement analysis,and readily extended to carry out probabilistic seismic landslide displacement analysis. DLL attenuation models have also been developed by using earthquake source terms,such as magnitude and source distance,that account for the effects of earthquake faulttype,source type,and site conditions. Sensitivity analyses show that the predicted DLL values from the new models are close to those from the Romeo model that was developed from an Italian earthquake record data set. The proposed models are also applied to an analysis of landslide displacements in the Wenchuan earthquake,and a comparison between the predicted and the observed results shows that the proposed models are reliable,and can be confidently used in mapping landslide potential.     

Gravimetric Study Of A Retrogressive Landslide In Southern Italy

Post-failure activity of the December 1993 Senerchia slump-earthflow was characterised by intermittent recession of the headscarp and earthflow movements. The retrogression showed considerable spatial variability, depending on the properties of the geological materials. The retrogressive failures were preceded by intense fissuring of the ground in the crown zone. Two microgravimetric surveys were carried out in order to detect possible spatial-temporal density variations in an area upslope of the headscarp. Although it was not possible to recognise any significant temporal density changes, this surveying revealed the presence of a negative anomaly which coincided with the area of maximum headscarp retreat. The gravity modelling was constrained by borehole information and new headscarp exposures produced by a series of retrogressive failures suggested that the origin of the anomaly might be associated with a hollow in an underlying clay-rich bedrock which had been subsequently filled by coarse colluvium. A possible concentration of groundwater in the hollow and its discharge towards the headscarp area controlled the local slope instability. The results of this study showed that microgravimetric surveys conducted upslope of retrogressive landslides can provide useful information on subsurface lithological heterogeneities that may control the amount and preferential direction of upslope landslide enlargement.     

Attenuation tomography of the Southern Apennines (Italy)

The aim of this study is to improve our knowledge of the attenuation structure in the Southern Apennines using a new amplitude ratio tomography method (Phillips et al., Geophys Res Lett 32(21):L21301, 2005) applied on both direct and coda envelope measurements derived from 150 events recorded by 47 stations of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia National Seismic Network (Rete Sismica Nazionale Centralizzata). The two-dimensional (2-D) analysis allows us to take into account lateral crustal variations and heterogeneities of this region. Using the same event and station distribution, we also applied a simple 1-D methodology, and the performance of the 1-D and 2-D path assumptions is tested by comparing the average interstation variance for the path-corrected amplitudes using coda and direct waves. In general, coda measurement results are more stable than using direct waves when the same methodology is applied. Using the 2-D approach, we observe more stable results for both waves. However, the improvement is quite small, probably because the crustal heterogeneity is weak. This means that, for this region, the 1-D path assumption is a good approximation of the attenuation characteristics of the region. A comparison between Q tomography images obtained using direct and coda amplitudes shows similar results, consistent with the geology of the region. In fact, we observe low Q along the Apennine chain toward the Tyrrhenian Sea and higher values to the east, in correspondence with the Gargano zone that is related to the Apulia Carbonate Platform. Finally, we compared our results with the coda Q values proposed by Bianco et al. (Geophys J Int 150:10–22, 2002) for the same region. The good agreement validates our results as the authors used a completely independent methodology.     

Magma evolution at mount vulture (Southern Italy)

The Vulture complex is made up of foiditic, tephritic, phonolitic-trachytic and phonolitic products. New rock analyses have been performed in order to ascertain whether the various rock types derive from a unique parental magma and, if so, to define its nature. The data presented support that the Vulture suite originated from a foiditic melt which had differentiated at low pressures. The main process determining the foidite → → tephrite → phonolitic trachyte evolution seems to be the crystal fractionation of mainly clinopyroxenes, and opaques, with the contribution of plagioclases and haüyne too in the tephrite → trachyte evolution. Additionary role must have been played by a mixing of melts at different evolution stages occurred in a shallow seated magma chamber.     

Chronology analysis of huge landslide based on ESR dating materials on sliding face in carbonate areas of south eastern Tibet

Determining occurrence age is key to chronology analysis of huge landslides. However, in carbonated bedrock areas, it is difficult to carry out geochronological surveys of landslide evolution due to lack of suitable dating materials and methods. In carbonated bedrock areas, the cosmic nuclides 36Cl and 14C dating methods have been used for obtaining the exposed age of bedrock. But intense weathering, erosion and dissolution make it difficult to obtain an accurate total amount of cosmogenic nuclide accumulation, resulting in the dating results being affected greatly by weathering, erosion and dissolution of carbonate rock. Therefore, it is necessary to find new dating materials or methods for determining the occurrence age of landslide in carbonate bedrock areas with little quaternary sediments. In this study, a huge landslide developed in the carbonate bedrock area of south eastern Tibet is introduced briefly, which is named the Qiaojia landslide and blocked the Jinsha River. A thin layer including three obvious recrystallized carbonate sub-layers was formed in the sliding zone, indicating different sliding events. Three recrystallized carbonate samples were then collected for ESR dating research to obtain the age information of the Qiaojia landslide: one occurred 79 ± 8 ka years ago, and the other occurred 60 ± 10 ka years ago, and the third occurred 25 ± 2 ka years ago, which are in general agreement with other studies in the surrounding of the study area. It suggests that recrystallized carbonate on sliding face is suitable for chronologically identifying landslide activity by using ESR method in the carbonate area, especially in the areas with little or no quaternary sediments.     

Circulation in a Southern Italy coastal basin: Modelling and field measurements

The purpose of the present work is to study the hydrodynamic aspects in the Mar Piccolo, a coastal basin located on the northern side of the Gulf of Taranto in the Ionian Sea (Italy), by means of mathematical modelling and field measurements. The latter were assessed during three surveys carried out in the spring–summer of 2002. Collected data have been utilized as input by the 3-D Princeton Ocean Model, which is a sigma coordinate, free surface ocean model which was developed in the late 1970s by Blumberg and Mellor. Simulations in baroclinic condition were forced by a homogeneous and stationary wind field, a simple tidal wave, a constant outflow and vertical stratification of temperature and salinity. A comparison was made between the mathematical modelling results and the field measurements collected during the surveys, in terms of velocity. It was observed that during small tides, when the wind effect prevails over the stratification effect, the best model results were obtained for the most superficial layer and that superficial patterns reproduced by the model are more sensitive to wind direction than to stratification. On the contrary, when the wind effect decreases or the thermohaline effect rises, best results occurred in deeper layers.     

Seismic hazard in southern Calabria (Italy) based on the analysis of a synthetic earthquake catalog

The application of a newly developed physics-based earthquake simulator to the active faults inferred by aeromagnetism in southern Calabria has produced a synthetic catalog lasting 100 ky including more than 18,000 earthquakes of magnitude ≥?4.0. This catalog exhibits temporal, spatial and magnitude features, which resemble those of the observed seismicity. As an example of the potential use of synthetic catalogs, a map of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) for a given exceedance probability on the territory under investigation has been produced by means of a simple attenuation law applied to all the events reported in the synthetic catalog. This map was compared with the existing hazard map that is presently used in the national seismic building regulations. The comparison supports a strong similarity of our results with the values given in the present Italian seismic building code, despite the latter being based on a different methodology. The same similarity cannot be recognized for the comparison of our present study with the results obtained from a previous study based on our same methodology but with a different geological model.     

基于土地利用方式的巢湖流域氮排放情景模拟

土地利用方式及其转移对区域氮素迁移和水体氮负荷产生重要影响,但量化自然发展、耕地保护和生态保护等多情景下土地利用方式氮排放时空变化特征,揭示流域水体氮负荷对土地利用变化的响应机制仍面临挑战。本研究以巢湖流域为研究区,通过遥感解译多时相土地利用类型数据,借助PLUS和InVEST模型探索不同情景下氮排放对各土地利用类型变化的响应机制。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年期间,巢湖流域建设用地面积的增加(626.14 km²)主要占据的是耕地(减少了775.64 km²),城市化建设成为土地利用方式变化的主要驱动力;(2)PLUS模型多情景预测结果显示:2020—2030年间土地利用变化特征与2000—2020年基本保持一致,但各用地间的转换频率降低;(3)经InVEST模拟,耕地面积缩减而导致氮排放的减少量(340.17 t)大于建设用地等面积增加带来的氮排放增加量(170.11 t),使2000—2020年间巢湖流域土地利用所排放的总氮量呈降低趋势,由2000年的4768.04 t降至2020年的4597.98 t;(4)不同情景下,2030年各土地利用方式的氮排放量较2020年均呈降低趋势。其中,生态保护情景既有效地保障了巢湖流域生态功能又展现出较好的氮减排效果(113.36 t);鉴于此,建议流域管理部门应通过合理规划各用地类型的发展,严格控制建设用地对林草地、水域等生态用地的侵占,以期削减流域水体氮负荷、缓解氮素治理压力。