Simulation and prediction of climate changes in the 19th to 21st centuries with the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, model of the Earth’s climate system

This paper presents results from a simulation of climate changes in the 19th–21st centuries with the Institute of Numerical Mathematics Climate Model Version 4 (INMCM4) in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5). Like the previous INMCM3 version, this model has a low sensitivity of 4.0 K to a quadrupling of CO₂ concentration. Global warming in the model by the end of the 21st century is 1.9 K for the RCP4.5 scenario and 3.4 K for RCP8.5. The spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation changes driven by the enhanced greenhouse effect is similar to that derived from the INMCM3 model data. In the INMCM4 model, however, the heat flux to the ocean and sea-level rise caused by thermal expansion are roughly 1.5 times as large as those in the INMCM3 model under the same scenario. A decrease in sea-ice extent and a change in heat fluxes and meridional circulation in the ocean under global warming, as well as some aspects of natural climate variability in the model, are considered.     

Simulation of the spatiotemporal variability of the World Ocean sea surface hight by the INM climate models

The results of simulations of the World Ocean sea surface hight (SSH) in by various versions of the Climate Model of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, are compared with the CNES-CLS09 fields of the mean dynamic topography (deviation of the ocean level from the geoid). Three models with different ocean blocks are considered which slightly differ in numerical schemes and have various horizontal spatial resolution, i.e., the INMCM4 model, which participated in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP Phase 5, resolution of 1° × 1/2°); the INMCM5 model, which participates in the next project, CMIP6 (resolution of 1/2° × 1/4°); and the advanced INMCM-ER eddy-resolving model (resolution of 1/6° × 1/8°). It is shown that an increase in the spatial resolution improves the reproduction of ocean currents (with Agulhas and Kuroshio currents as examples) and their variability. A probable cause of relatively high errors in the reproduction of the SSH of Southern and Indian oceans is discussed.     

Simulating present-day climate with the INMCM4.0 coupled model of the atmospheric and oceanic general circulations

The INMCM3.0 climate model has formed the basis for the development of a new climate-model version: the INMCM4.0. It differs from the previous version in that there is an increase in its spatial resolution and some changes in the formulation of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. A numerical experiment was conducted on the basis of this new version to simulate the present-day climate. The model data were compared with observational data and the INMCM3.0 model data. It is shown that the new model adequately reproduces the most significant features of the observed atmospheric and oceanic climate. This new model is ready to participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the results of which are to be used in preparing the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).     

Effect of atmospheric CO2 and solar activity on wind regime and water column stability in the major global upwelling areas

It is not clear whether global warming will favour or reduce global ocean phytoplankton productivity in coastal areas. Moreover, the relative contributions made by natural and/or anthropogenic factors to possible changes in phytoplankton productivity are not clear. As the relationship between primary production and alongshore wind forcing is well established for the Eastern Boundary Current (EBC) ecosystems, our aim is to determine whether the changes experienced over the last five decades (1958–2007) in atmospheric CO₂ and solar activity have been able to affect the wind regime and water column stability in the most biologically productive upwelling areas of California, Canary, Humboldt and Benguela. We approached the work by statistically studying the effect of solar activity and atmospheric CO₂ on surface alongshore wind stress and on water column stability. There was an increasing trend in wind stress and water column stability in all the upwelling areas over the period studied (with the single exception of stability in the California EBC system). The analysis of detrended series evidenced significant relationships between atmospheric CO₂ concentration and wind stress and water column stability in the coastal upwelling areas investigated. In addition, wind stress and stability data were found to be consistent, with negative linear relationships between wind stress and CO₂ in most of the sites in the Benguela, Canary and Humboldt regions associated, as expected, to positive relationships when water column stability is used as regressand. The results of the present study suggest that greenhouse gas forcing, independent of its well known general increasing trend, was able to decrease wind stress intensity and increase water column stability for the period 1958 to present in most of the sites of the four Eastern Boundary Ecosystems studied, with the one exception of the California region. Conversely, the impact of solar activity appeared to be quite low compared to the greenhouse gas forcing.     

Historical simulation and twenty-first century prediction of oceanic CO2 sink and pH change

A global ocean carbon cycle model based on the ocean general circulation model POP and the improved biogeochemical model OCMIP-2 is employed to simulate carbon cycle processes under the historically observed atmospheric CO 2 concentration and different future scenarios (called Rep- resentative Concentration Pathways, or RCPs). The RCPs in this paper follow the design of Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The model results show that the ocean absorbs CO 2 from atmosphere and the absorbability will continue in the 21st century under the four RCPs. The net air-sea CO 2 flux increased during the historical time and reached 1.87 Pg/a (calculated by carbon) in 2005; however, it would reach peak and then decrease in the 21st century. The ocean absorbs CO 2 mainly in the mid latitude, and releases CO 2 in the equator area. However, in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) area the ocean would change from source to sink under the rising CO 2 concentration, including RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. In 2100, the anthropogenic carbon would be transported to the 40 S in the Atlantic Ocean by the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), and also be transported to the north by the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) along the Antarctic continent in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The ocean pH value is also simulated by the model. The pH decreased by 0.1 after the industrial revolution, and would continue to decrease in the 21st century. For the highest concentration sce- nario of RCP8.5, the global averaged pH would decrease by 0.43 to reach 7.73 due to the absorption of CO 2 from atmosphere.     

Carbon dioxide content in the atmospheric thickness over central Eurasia (Issyk Kul Monitoring Station)

The refined data obtained from the spectroscopic measurements of carbon dioxide in the column of the continental atmosphere over the Issyk Kul Monitoring Station during the period 1980–2006 and the results of their comparison with the data obtained from the measurements of carbon dioxide in air samples and with the mean zonal empirical model of the Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL) are given. Seasonal variations and a long-term trend of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmospheric thickness over a 25-year period of measurements are analyzed. The monthly mean concentration of CO₂ is increased by ～40.5 ppm, and the linear-trend index is 1.62 ppm per year. The results of the aircraft measurements of CO₂ concentration in air samples are, on the average, in agreement with the data obtained from the spectroscopic measurements of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmospheric column. The CO₂ concentration in the surface air varies from day to day, and only its minimum values coincide with the CO₂ concentration in the atmospheric thickness. The results of measurements of CO₂ concentration in the atmospheric thickness and in the atmospheric surface layer over the KZD and KZM stations nearest to each other are, on the whole, in disagreement; moreover, the KZD and KZM data are inconsistent. The CO₂ concentration in the atmospheric thickness is, on the average, 1–2% higher than that obtained with the CMDL model for 42.6° N latitude. The coefficient of correlation between the measurement results and model data is high (r= 0.95).     

Interaction of the methane cycle and processes in wetland ecosystems in a climate model of intermediate complexity

The climate model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) has been supplemented with a module of soil thermal physics and the methane cycle, which takes into account the response of methane emissions from wetland ecosystems to climate changes. Methane emissions are allowed only from unfrozen top layers of the soil, with an additional constraint in the depth of the simulated layer. All wetland ecosystems are assumed to be water-saturated. The molar amount of the methane oxidized in the atmosphere is added to the simulated atmospheric concentration of CO₂. A control preindustrial experiment and a series of numerical experiments for the 17th–21st centuries were conducted with the model forced by greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols. It is shown that the IAP RAS CM generally reproduces preindustrial and current characteristics of both seasonal thawing/freezing of the soil and the methane cycle. During global warming in the 21st century, the permafrost area is reduced by four million square kilometers. By the end of the 21st century, methane emissions from wetland ecosystems amount to 130–140 Mt CH₄/year for the preindustrial and current period increase to 170–200 MtCH₄/year. In the aggressive anthropogenic forcing scenario A2, the atmospheric methane concentration grows steadily to ≈3900 ppb. In more moderate scenarios A1B and B1, the methane concentration increases until the mid-21st century, reaching ≈2100–2400 ppb, and then decreases. Methane oxidation in air results in a slight additional growth of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. Allowance for the interaction between processes in wetland ecosystems and the methane cycle in the IAP RAS CM leads to an additional atmospheric methane increase of 10–20% depending on the anthropogenic forcing scenario and the time. The causes of this additional increase are the temperature dependence of integral methane production and the longer duration of a warm period in the soil. However, the resulting enhancement of the instantaneous greenhouse radiative forcing of atmospheric methane and an increase in the mean surface air temperature are small (globally < 0.1 W/m² and 0.05 K, respectively).     

Uptake mechanism of anthropogenic CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> in the Kuroshio Extension region in an ocean general circulation model

The uptake mechanism of anthropogenic CO₂ in the Kuroshio Extension is examined by a Lagrangian approach using a biogeochemical model embedded in an ocean general circulation model. It is found that the uptake of anthropogenic CO₂ is caused mainly by the increase of pCO₂ dependency of seawater on temperature, which is caused by greater dissolved inorganic carbon concentration in the modern state than in the pre-industrial state. In contrast with the view of previous studies, the effect of the vertical entrainment, which brings waters that last contacted the atmosphere with the past lower CO₂ concentration, is comparatively small. Winter uptake of anthropogenic CO₂ increases with the rise of the atmospheric CO₂ level, while summer uptake is relatively stable, resulting in a larger seasonal cycle of the uptake. This increase is significant, especially in the Kuroshio Extension region. It is newly suggested that this increase in the Kuroshio Extension region is largely caused by the combined effects of the increased pCO₂ dependency of the sea water on the temperature and the seasonal difference in cooling.     

Acidification at the Surface in the East Sea: A Coupled Climate-carbon Cycle Model Study

This modeling study investigates the impacts of increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration on acidification in the East Sea. A historical simulation for the past three decades (1980 to 2010) was performed using the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (version 2), a coupled climate model with atmospheric, terrestrial and ocean cycles. As the atmospheric CO₂ concentration increased, acidification progressed in the surface waters of the marginal sea. The acidification was similar in magnitude to observations and models of acidification in the global ocean. However, in the global ocean, the acidification appears to be due to increased in-situ oceanic CO₂ uptake, whereas local processes had stronger effects in the East Sea. pH was lowered by surface warming and by the influx of water with higher dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the northwestern Pacific. Due to the enhanced advection of DIC, the partial pressure of CO₂ increased faster than in the overlying air; consequently, the in-situ oceanic uptake of CO₂ decreased.     

Doubled CO2 impact on subarctic marine carbon cycle: a case study at Ocean Station P

Along with meteorological observations, complementary and systematic oceanographic observations of various physical, biological and chemical parameters have been made at Ocean Station P (OSP) (50°N, 145°W) since the early 1950s. These decadal time scale data have contributed to a better understanding of the physical, biological and chemical processes in the surface layer of the northeastern subarctic region of the Pacific Ocean. These data have demonstrated the importance of the North Pacific in the global carbon cycle and, in particular, the role of biological/chemical processes in the net exchange of CO₂ across the air–sea interface. Although we do not fully comprehend how climatic variations influence marine communities or marine biogeochemistry, previous studies have provided some basic understanding of the mechanisms controlling the seasonal and inter-annual variations of biological and chemical parameters (such as phytoplankton, bacteria, nitrate/ammonium concentration) at OSP, and how they affect the carbon cycling in the subarctic North Pacific. In this study, we investigate how these mechanisms might alter the seasonal variations of these parameters at OSP under a 2XCO₂ condition. We examine these influences using a new biological model calibrated by the climatological data from OSP. For the 2XCO₂ simulation, the biological model is driven off line (i.e., no feedback to the ocean/atmospheric model components) by the climatology plus 2XCO₂−1XCO₂ outputs from a global surface ocean model and the Canadian GCM. Under the 2XCO₂ condition, the upper layer ocean shows an increase in the entrainment rate at the bottom of the mixed layer for OSP during the late autumn and winter seasons, resulting in an increase in the f-ratio. Although there is an overall increase in the primary production (PP) by 3–18%, a decrease in the biomass of small phytoplankton and microzooplankton (due to mesozooplankton grazing) lowers the concentration of dissolved organic matter (DOM) by 4–25%. The model also predicts a significant increase in the concentrations of nitrate and ammonium, and in bacterial production during July and August. Doubling of the atmospheric CO₂ from 330 to 660 ppm forces the marine pCO₂ to increase by about 63%, much of which is driven by an increased flux of CO₂ from the atmosphere to the oceans.     

CO2 cycling in the coastal ocean. I – A numerical analysis of the southeastern Bering Sea with applications to the Chukchi Sea and the northern Gulf of Mexico

A quasi-two dimensional model of the carbon and nitrogen cycling above the 70m isobath of the southeastern Bering Sea at 57°N replicates the observed seasonal cycles of nitrate, ammonium, ΣCO₂, pCO₂, light penetration, chlorophyll, phytoplankton growth rate, and primary production, as constrained by changes in wind, incident radiation, temperature, ice cover, vertical and lateral mixing, grazing stress, benthic processing of phytodetritus and zooplankton fecal pellets, and the pelagic microbial loop of DOC, bacteria, and their predators. About half of the seasonal resupply of nitrate stocks to their initial winter conditions is derived from in situ nitrification, with the rest obtained from deep-sea influxes. Under the present conditions of atmospheric forcing, shelf-break exchange, and food web structure, this shelf ecosystem serves as a sink for atmospheric CO₂, with storage in the forms of exported DOC, DIC, and unutilized POC (phytoplankton, bacteria, and fecal pellets).As a consequence of just the rising levels of atmospheric pCO₂ since the the Industrial Revolution, however, the biophysical CO₂ status of the Southeastern Bering Sea shelf may have switched over the last 250 years, from a prior source to the present sink, since this relatively pristine ecosystem has unergone little eutrophication. Such fluctuations of CO₂ status may thus be reversed by the physical processes of : (1) reduction of atmospheric pCO₂, (2) increased on welling of deep-sea ΣCO₂, and (3) warming of shelf waters. Based on our application of this model to the Chukchi Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, about 1.0–1.2 gigatons C y^-1 of atmospheric CO₂ may now be sequestered by temperate and polar shelf ecosystems. When tropical systems are included, however, a positive net sink of only 0.6–0.8. × 10¹⁵g C y⁻¹ may prevail over all shelves.     

Effects of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Enrichment on Marine Phytoplankton

Rising atmospheric CO₂ and deliberate CO₂ sequestration in the ocean change seawater carbonate chemistry in a similar way, lowering seawater pH, carbonate ion concentration and carbonate saturation state and increasing dissolved CO₂ concentration. These changes affect marine plankton in various ways. On the organismal level, a moderate increase in CO₂ facilitates photosynthetic carbon fixation of some phytoplankton groups. It also enhances the release of dissolved carbohydrates, most notably during the decline of nutrient-limited phytoplankton blooms. A decrease in the carbonate saturation state represses biogenic calcification of the predominant marine calcifying organisms, foraminifera and coccolithophorids. On the ecosystem level these responses influence phytoplankton species composition and succession, favouring algal species which predominantly rely on CO₂ utilization. Increased phytoplankton exudation promotes particle aggregation and marine snow formation, enhancing the vertical flux of biogenic material. A decrease in calcification may affect the competitive advantage of calcifying organisms, with possible impacts on their distribution and abundance. On the biogeochemical level, biological responses to CO₂ enrichment and the related changes in carbonate chemistry can strongly alter the cycling of carbon and other bio-active elements in the ocean. Both decreasing calcification and enhanced carbon overproduction due to release of extracellular carbohydrates have the potential to increase the CO₂ storage capacity of the ocean. Although the significance of such biological responses to CO₂ enrichment becomes increasingly evident, our ability to make reliable predictions of their future developments and to quantify their potential ecological and biogeochemical impacts is still in its infancy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Preindustrial, historical, and fertilization simulations using a global ocean carbon model with new parameterizations of iron limitation, calcification, and N2 fixation

The Canadian Model of Ocean Carbon (CMOC) has been developed as part of a global coupled climate carbon model. In a stand-alone integration to preindustrial equilibrium, the model ecosystem and global ocean carbon cycle are in general agreement with estimates based on observations. CMOC reproduces global mean estimates and spatial distributions of various indicators of the strength of the biological pump; the spatial distribution of the air-sea exchange of CO₂ is consistent with present-day estimates. Agreement with the observed distribution of alkalinity is good, consistent with recent estimates of the mean rain ratio that are lower than historic estimates, and with calcification occurring primarily in the lower latitudes. With anthropogenic emissions and climate forcing from a 1850-2000 climate model simulation, anthropogenic CO₂ accumulates at a similar rate and with a similar spatial distribution as estimated from observations. A hypothetical scenario for complete elimination of iron limitation generates maximal rates of uptake of atmospheric CO₂ of less than 1 PgC y⁻¹, or about 11% of 2004 industrial emissions. Even a ‘perfect’ future of sustained fertilization would have a minor impact on atmospheric CO₂ growth. In the long term, the onset of fertilization causes the ocean to take up an additional 77 PgC after several thousand years, compared with about 84 PgC thought to have occurred during the transition into the last glacial maximum due to iron fertilization associated with increased dust deposition.     

Estimation of the uncertainty of future changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and its radiative forcing

An ensemble experiment with the IAP RAS CM was performed to estimate future changes in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, its radiative forcing, and characteristics of the climate-carbon cycle feedback. Different ensemble members were obtained by varying the governing parameters of the terrestrial carbon cycle of the model. For 1860–2100, anthropogenic CO₂ emissions due to fossil-fuel burning and land use were prescribed from observational estimates for the 19th and 20th centuries. For the 21st century, emissions were taken from the SRES A2 scenario. The ensemble of numerical experiments was analyzed via Bayesian statistics, which made the uncertainty range of estimates much narrower. To distinguish between realistic and unrealistic ensemble members, the observational characteristics of the carbon cycle for the 20th century were used as a criterion. For the given emission scenario, the carbon dioxide concentration expected by the end of the 21st century falls into the range 818 ± 46 ppm (an average plus or minus standard deviation). The corresponding global instantaneous radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (relative to the preindustrial state) lies in the uncertainty range 6.8 ± 0.4 W m^?2. The uncertainty range of the strength of the climate-carbon cycle feedback by the end of the 21st century reaches 59 ± 98 ppm in terms of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and 0.4 ± 0.7 W m^?2 in terms of the radiative forcing.     

Modeling the contribution of dissolved organic carbon to carbon sequestration during the last glacial maximum

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is a carbon reservoir that is as large as the atmospheric CO₂ pool, and its contribution to the global carbon cycle is gaining attention. As DOC is a dissolved tracer, its distribution can serve to trace the mixing of water masses and the pathways of ocean circulation. Published proxy and model reconstructions have revealed that, during the last glacial maximum (LGM), the pattern of deep ocean circulation differed from that of the modern ocean, whereby additional carbon is assumed to have been sequestered in stratified LGM deep water. The aim of this study is to explore the distribution of DOC and its production/removal rate during the LGM using the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system model (GENIE). Modeled results reveal that increased salinity of bottom waters in the Southern Ocean is associated with stronger stratification and oxygen depletion. The stratified LGM deep ocean traps more nutrients, resulting in a decrease in the DOC reservoir size that, in turn, causes a negative feedback for carbon sequestration. This finding requires an increase in DOC lifetime to compensate for the negative feedback. The upper limit of DOC lifetime is assumed to be 20,000 years. Modeled results derive an increase (decrease) in DOC reservoir by 100 Pg C leading to an atmospheric CO₂ decrease (increase) of 9.1 ppm and a dissolved inorganic carbon δ¹³C increase (decrease) of 0.06‰. The DOC removal rate is estimated to be 39.5 Tg C year^–1 in the deep sea during the LGM. The contribution of DOC to the LGM carbon cycle elucidates potential carbon sink-increasing strategies.     

Interannual variations of the Antarctic Ocean CO2 uptake from 1986 to 1994

The interannual variations of CO₂ sources and sinks in the surface waters of the Antarctic Ocean (south of 50°S) were studied between 1986 and 1994. An existing, slightly modified one-dimensional model describing the mixed-layer carbon cycle was used for this study and forced by available satellite-derived and climatological data. Between 1986 and 1994, the mean Antarctic Ocean CO₂ uptake was 0.53 Pg C year⁻¹ with an interannual variability of 0.15 Pg C year⁻¹.Interannual variation of the Antarctic Ocean CO₂ uptake is related to the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW), which affects sea surface temperature (SST), wind-speed and sea-ice extent. The CO₂ uptake in the Antarctic Ocean has increased from 1986 to 1994 by 0.32 Pg C. It was found that over the 9 years, the surface ocean carbon dioxide fugacity (fCO₂) increase was half that of the atmospheric CO₂ increase inducing an increase of the air–sea fCO₂ gradient. This effect is responsible for 60% of the Antarctic Ocean CO₂ uptake increase between 1986 and 1994, as the ACW effect cancels out over the 9 years investigated.     

Sub-Lethal Effects of Elevated Concentration of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> on Planktonic Copepods and Sea Urchins

Data concerning the effects of high CO₂ concentrations on marine organisms are essential for both predicting future impacts of the increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration and assessing the effects of deep-sea CO₂sequestration. Here we review our recent studies evaluating the effects of elevated CO₂ concentrations in seawater on the mortality and egg production of the marine planktonic copepod, Acartia steueri, and on the fertilization rate and larval morphology of sea urchin embryos, Hemicentrotus pulcherrimus and Echinometra mathaei. Under conditions of +10,000 ppm CO₂ in seawater (pH 6.8), the egg production rates of copepods decreased significantly. The survival rates of adult copepods were not affected when reared under increased CO₂ for 8 days, however longer exposure times could have revealed toxic effects of elevated CO₂ concentrations. The fertilization rate of sea urchin eggs of both species decreased with increasing CO₂ concentration. Furthermore, the size of pluteus larvae decreased with increasing CO₂ concentration and malformed skeletogenesis was observed in both larvae. This suggests that calcification is affected by elevated CO₂ in the seawater. From these results, we conclude that increased CO₂ concentration in seawater will chronically affect several marine organisms and we discuss the effects of increased CO₂ on the marine carbon cycle and marine ecosystem. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

CMIP5模式对中国近海海表温度的模拟及预估

基于观测和再分析资料;利用多种指标和方法评估了国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中21个模式对中国近海海温的月、季节和年际变化模拟能力。多模式集合能够再现气候平均意义下近海海温的空间分布特征;但量值上存在一定的低估。在渤海和黄海;集合平均与观测差别比较明显。在年际尺度上;与观测数据对比;模式模拟海温与Niño3指数相关性较小。中国近海海表面温度在1960-2002年有明显的升高趋势;从2003年开始增温趋缓。评估结果表明;ACCESS1.0、BCC-CSM1.1、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM、FGOALS-g2、CNRM-CM5-2、INMCM4八个模式对中国近海海温的变化有较好的模拟能力。利用ACCESS1.0、INMCM4、BCC-CSM1.1、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM这5个模式结果对中国近海海温未来的变化进行了预估。在RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下;未来近100年中国近海海温有明显升高趋势;最优模式多模式集合平均增温分别可达到1.5℃、3.3℃;净热通量变化和平流变化共同促进了东海升温。     

Temporal Change of Dissolved Inorganic Carbon in the Subsurface Water at Station KNOT (44°N, 155°E) in the Western North Pacific Subpolar Region

The dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and related chemical species have been measured from 1992 to 2001 at Station KNOT (44°N, 155°E) in the western North Pacific subpolar region. DIC (1.3∼2.3 µ mol/kg/yr) and apparent oxygen utilization (AOU, 0.7∼1.8 µmol/kg/yr) have increased while total alkalinity remained constant in the intermediate water (26.9∼27.3σ_θ). The increases of DIC in the upper intermediate water (26.9∼27.1σ_θ) were higher than those in the lower one (27.2∼ 27.3σ_θ). The temporal change of DIC would be controlled by the increase of anthropogenic CO₂, the decomposition of organic matter and the non-anthropogenic CO₂ absorbed at the region of intermediate water formation. We estimated the increase of anthropogenic CO₂ to be only 0.5∼0.7 µmol/kg/yr under equilibrium with the atmospheric CO₂ content. The effect of decomposition was estimated to be 0.8 ± 0.7 µmol/kg/yr from AOU increase. The remainder of non-anthropogenic CO₂ had increased by 0.6 ± 1.1 µmol/kg/yr. We suggest that the non-anthropogenic CO₂ increase is controlled by the accumulation of CO₂ liberated back to atmosphere at the region of intermediate water formation due to the decrease of difference between DIC in the winter mixed layer and DIC under equilibrium with the atmospheric CO₂ content, and the reduction of diapycnal vertical water exchange between mixed layer and pycnocline waters. In future, more accurate and longer time series data will be required to confirm our results.     

The Air-Sea Exchange of CO2 in the East Sea (Japan Sea)

During CREAMS expeditions, fCO₂ for surface waters was measured continuously along the cruise tracks. The fCO₂ in surface waters in summer varied in the range 320–440 μatm, showing moderate supersaturation with respect to atmospheric CO₂. In winter, however, fCO₂ showed under-saturation of CO₂ in most of the area, while varying in a much wider range from 180 to 520 μatm. Some very high fCO₂ values observed in the northern East Sea (Japan Sea) appeared to be associated with the intensive convection system developed in the area. A gas-exchange model was developed for describing the annual variation of fCO₂ and for estimating the annual flux of CO₂ at the air-sea interface. The model incorporated annual variations in SST, the thickness of the mixed layer, gas exchange associated with wind velocity, biological activity and atmospheric concentration of CO₂. The model shows that the East Sea releases CO₂ into the atmosphere from June to September, and absorbs CO₂ during the rest of the year, from October through May. The net annual CO₂ flux at the air-sea interface was estimated to be 0.032 (±0.012) Gt-C per year from the atmosphere into the East Sea. Water column chemistry shows penetration of CO₂ into the whole water column, supporting a short turnover time for deep waters in the East Sea. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.