The characteristics of tectonic stress field about strike slip earthquake－generating structure in the Chinese mainland

（环文林，汪素云，宋昭仪）Ｔｈｅｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓｏｆｔｅｃｔｏｎｉｃｓｔｒｅｓｓｆｉｅｌｄａｂｏｕｔｓｔｒｉｋｅｓｌｉｐｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅ－ｇｅｎｅｒａｔｉｎｇｓｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅｉｎｔｈｅＣｈｉｎｅｓｅｍａｉｎｌａｎｄ￥Ｗｅｎ－Ｌｉｎ...     

中国大陆地壳运动与汶川MS8.0级地震孕育的关系

根据网络工程的GPS站点观测资料,计算相对中国大陆整体1999～2007年的趋势运动速率和2004~2007年的动态运动速率,用青藏亚板块和华南亚板块的参数计算龙门山断裂带的活动参量,研究了中国大陆运动场和其变化,分析了地壳运动场的特征与汶川M_S8级地震的孕育关系.结果揭示出：现今地壳的运动分区与地质新构造单元基本一致,显示现代地壳构造活动是新构造运动的继承和发展;中国大陆地壳运动的动力主要与印度板块、太平洋板块与欧亚板块的相互碰撞俯冲产生的作用力有关.汶川M_S8级地震的发生,主要是由于印度板块对青藏亚板块的向北推挤、产生侧向运动,致使龙门山断裂带遭受挤压产生能量积累所致.2004～2007年的地壳动态运动,使龙门山断裂带走滑活动加强,从稳定的压应变积累状态转入了剪切作用下的易活动状态.     

Assessment of strong earthquake risk in the Chinese mainland from 2021 to 2030

The long-term earthquake prediction from 2021 to 2030 is carried out by researching the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland. Based on the strong earthquake recurrence model, the cumulative probability of each target fault in the next 10 years is given by the recurrence period and elapsed time of each fault, which are adopted from relevant studies such as seismological geology, geodesy, and historical earthquake records. Based on the long-term predictions of large earthquakes throughout the world, this paper proposes a comprehensive judgment scheme based on the fault segments with the seismic gap, motion strongly locked, sparse small-moderate earthquakes, and apparent Coulomb stress increase. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the relative risk for strong earthquakes that may occur in the coming 10 years on the major faults in the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland. The present loading rate of each fault is first constrained by geodetic observations; the cumulative displacement of each fault is then estimated by the elapsed time since the most recent strong earthquake.     

An overview on shallow strong earthquake activity and earthquake live losses of Chinese mainland in the centenary from 1901 to 2001

Introduction It is well known that China locates in the southeastern part of Eurasian Plate, which subjects to the action of westward subducting of Pacific Plate and Philippine Sea Plate, and northward col- lision of Indian Plate. So China is a country with strong seismicity. There are two kinds of earth-quake activities in China. In the Chinese mainland most of the earthquakes belong to the intraplate ones, and in Taiwan of China belong to interplate ones. According to the statistics 9…     

Multi-scale analysis of earthquake activity in Chinese mainland

IdentifyingtheactiveandinactiveperiodofearthquakesinChinesemainlandisofgreatimportanceforguid-ingmid-shortterm,especiallyshortterm,earthquakeforecast.Thisisanindispensablestepforstudyingearth-quakepredictioninourcountry.Nowanintegratedsetofconceptsandmethodsforgeneraltrendpredictionofearthquakeactivityhasbeendeveloped.BasedontheChineseearthquakedatasincethebeginningofthe20thcentury,somestatisticalmethodshavebeendevelopedtoanalyzeoccurrencefrequencyandenergyreleaseofearthquakes,distinguishacti…     

由昆仑山口西8.1级地震分析中国大陆1～3年地震大形势

在昆仑山口西8.1级地震震前分析基础上，对该次地震对中国大陆地震活动趋势的影响进行了分析，认为这次地震是20世纪以来第五活跃幕闭幕阶段的最大地震，据震前3年地震活动类比等推测，未来3年内中国大陆西部仍可能发生7级以上地震，东部地区可能发生少量6级地震。     

Recent crustal horizontal movement in the Chinese mainland

IntroductionSupportedbytheNationaIClimbingProject"RecentCrustalMovementandGeodynamicResearch",acrustalmovementmonitoringnetworkdistributedinChinesemainlandhasbeenmeasuredfortWotimesinl994andl996.Thenetconsistsof22stationsthatarelocatedonsev-eralmajortectonicblocksinChinesemainland.ExceptNanchongstationwhichwasdestroyedatsometimebetWeenl994and1996andre-settledinl996,alltheother2lstationswereoccupiedfortwotimes.BasedontheresuItSobtainedfromcarefulpre-processingofGPSobservations,therecent…     

Recurrence behaviors of segment-rupturing earthquakes on active faults of the Chinese mainland

IntroductionStrongorlargeearthquakesoccurredalongaspecificsegmentofanactivefaultarecalledsegment-rupturingearthquakes.Suchearthquakesoccurrepeatedlyatpreviouslocations.Thecurrentrecurrencemodelsforearthquakesrepeatedatpreviouslocationswereproposedonlimiteddatafromcharacteristicearthquakesonplateboundaries,mainlyincludingthetime-predictableandslippredictablemodels(Shimazaki,Nakata,1980),thequasi-periodicmodel(Bakun,McEvilly,1984;Savage,Cockerham,1986),andthetime-andmagnitude-predictablemodel…     

Receiver functions of CCDSN and crustal structure of Chinese mainland

The teleseismic receiver functions of 48 stations belonging to the CCDSN are used to invert the crustal structure beneath each station with the neighborhood algorithm. Thin layers with low velocity have been found beneath eight stations with "abnormal" observed receiver functions. Unreasonable results of few stations have been adjusted lightly with the trial-and-error method. The final result indicates that the crust in the western China is relatively thicker than the eastern China. The crust thickness beneath the Tibetan plateau is very large, which reaches 84 km at the station LSA. Double-crust structure exists below the stations LSA and CAD in Tibet, which might imply the collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates. A pronounced low velocity zone in the lower crust beneath the station TNC of Yunnan province might relate to the high temperature or emergence of partially molten material caused by Quaternary volcano, magma and geothermal activities in this area. The Moho is a transitional zone made up of thin layers instead of simple sharp discontinuity beneath several stations. The Conrad discontinuity is clearly identified beneath 20 stations mainly in the southeastern China, whereas it is blurry beneath 14 stations and uncertain beneath remaining stations.     

Boundary conditions of the dynamic numerical model for the Chinese mainland lithosphere

The numerical dynamic model of Chinese mainland lithosphere's stress and strain field was constructed with elasto-viscous creep constitutive relation. The most recent data of the stress field of Chinese mainland and the horizontal movement velocity of the crust blocks were used as constraint conditions. The values of the boundary force were computed by trial-and-error method. The effect of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau's excess potential energy to the movement of Chinese mainland was studied also in this model. The results of the numerical computing show that, recent rapid raising of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and the generation of normal faults in the southern part of the plateau resulted from the convergence of Indian Plate to the Eurasian Plate, and also from the rapid convective thinning of the lower lithosphere. Horizontal extension of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is the main dynamic factor to form the present tectonic framework of the Chinese mainland. The compressive loads on the eastern boundary of the model were mainly applied by the subduction of the Pacific Plate. The compression from the Philippine Plate maybe slight.     

Grouping occurrences being the fundamental feature of the strong earthquakes in Chinese mainland

ＧｒｏｕｐｉｎｇｏｃｃｕｒｒｅｎｃｅｓｂｅｉｎｇｔｈｅｆｕｎｄａｍｅｎｔａｌｆｅａｔｕｒｅｏｆｔｈｅｓｔｒｏｎｇｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓｉｎＣｈｉｎｅｓｅｍａｉｎｌａｎｄＱｉｎ－ＺｕＬＩ（李钦祖）；Ｌｉ－ＭｉｎＹＵ（于利民）；Ｊｉ－ＹｉＷＡＮＧ（王吉易...     

Spatial distribution features of sequence types of moderate and strong earthquake in Chinese mainland

Introduction Through studying ″foreshock″ and sequence features of strong earthquakes with focal mechanism of strike-slip or thrust occurred in the shallow subduction zone or in the continental thrust belt respectively, Reasenberg (1999) suggested that precursory representation and the se- quence features are related tightly to the rupture mechanism of the mainshock. This implies that the rupture pattern of the mainshock is probably one of the important factors affecting the features of afte…     

A preliminary research establishing the present-time intraplate blocks movement model on the Chinese mainland based on GPS data

The Chinese mainland is regarded as the best area for studying the continental crustal movement and dynamics. In the past, based on the ground surface observation, it was very difficult to study the movement of the intraplate blocks within a range of larger space and a time scale of several years quantitatively. In this paper, a method of calculating the Euler vectors of present-time motion among blocks by using Cardan angles has been given completely based on two periods of GPS repetition measurement data of the National Ascending Plan of China (NAPC) — the study and application of current crustal movement and geodynamics in 1994 and 1996. A present-time blocks movement model on the Chinese mainland (PBMC-1), which describes the motion of seven blocks—Tibet, Chuan-Dian, Gan-Qing, Xinjiang, South China, North China and Heilongjiang block, is established preliminarily. The velocity field of the relative motion among the intraplate blocks and boundary motion in the Chinese mainland are firstly given within several years time scale. It is shown by the results calculated with the model that the velocity-rate of each block is reduced gradually from the south to north and from the west to east, and the motion direction changes gradually from NNE to E, even SEE or SE. The collision of Indian plate plays a leading role in the movement of the intraplate blocks in the Chinese mainland, while the motion manner and velocity-rate of block boundary zone (fracture zone) depend on the motion of every block again. The present-time motion of a time scale of several years computed with the model is not only largely consistent with the average motion of a time scale of several million years derived from geology, but also very coincident with the results of geophysical and astronomic observation. It is shown preliminarily that the observed results of space geodesy techniques such as GPS etc. are capable of discovering the crustal movement at present. This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NNSFC), National Ascending Plan of China (NAPC) and Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation (CJSSF).     

2001年昆仑山口8.1级巨震后中国大陆、云南地震趋势研究

分析研究了2001年11月14日昆仑山口8．1级巨震对中国大陆云南未来几年地震趋势的影响，指出巨震后6年大陆可能仍然处于地震活跃期，其间大陆西部发生7．0级以上大震可能性较大；受2000－2001年欧亚带东南段大震活动过程及巨震调整影响，未来1－3年云南省可能进入新的活跃期，6．5级以上强震危险性增加。     

Distribution of empirical recurrence intervals for segment-rupturing earthquakes on active faults of the Chinese mainland

IntroductionInassessingtheprobabilitiesoftime-dependentandlong-termseismichazardsforsegmentsofactivefaults,itisnecessarytohavetheprobabilitydensity,f(O,fordescribingtherecurrenceintervaldistributionforsegment-rupturingearthquakes.Fromf(nandthefollowingequation,theconditionalprobability,pc,whichincreaseswiththetime,Te,elapsedsincethelatestearthquake,isabletobecalculated(Nishenko,Buland,1987,WorkingGrouponCaliforniaEarthquakeProbabilities,1995;Wen,1995,1998)fwhereATisthetimeintervalforthefor…     

利用面波波形模拟探测中国大陆地壳和上地幔波速结构的分区特征

对穿过中国大陆东部、中部、北部和西部4个不同地区的8条地震射线路径的波形进行拟合分析,反演得到了各路径下方的一维平均波速结构.反演得到的地壳和上地幔波速结构表现出明显的分区特征,该特征与已知的大地构造单元和已有的研究成果吻合较好. 表明面波波形拟合方法是一种可靠的探测地壳和上地幔波速结构的方法,且比单纯利用基阶面波频散对上地幔结构探测更具优势.      

Region-related features of crustal and upper-mantle velocity structure of the Chinese mainland detected by surface waveform modeling

Surface waveform modeling has played an important role on many continental-scale studies of upper mantle ve-locity structure, but it was seldom applied to the Chinese mainland study. The present study firstly analyzed sur-face waveform fittings for eight wave paths crossing through four different regions of the Chinese mainland (east-ern, central, northern and western China), and then inverted for 1D path-averaged S-velocities for these paths. The inverted crustal and upper-mantle S-velocities showed obvious region-related features, which are well consistent with known geotectonic units and previous research results. These results indicate that surface waveform modeling is a reliable method to get crustal and upper-mantle velocity structure. Furthermore, this method has a prominent advantage in detecting upper-mantle structure compared with fundamental-mode surface-wave dispersion method.     

Statistical features of aftershock distribution size for moderate and large earthquakes in Chinese mainland

Based on data of earthquake sequences with MS≥5.0 in Chinese mainland from 1970 to 2004,for different se-quence types and different rupture modes of the main shock,the relationship between aftershock distribution size Rand the magnitude of the main shock M0 has been studied statistically.Considering the rupture mode of the mainshock,we give the quantitative statistical relationships between R and M0 under 95%confidence level for differentsequence types.Qualitatively,lgR,the logarithm of the aftershock distribution size,is positively correlative to theM0,but the data distribution is dispersed.Viewing from different sequence types,the correlation between R and M0is very weak for isolated earthquake type(IET)sequence,R distributes in the range from 5 to 60 km;For main-shock-aftershock type(MAT),lgR is positively correlative to M0;For multiple main shock type(MMT),the core-lation between lgR and M0 is not very obvious when M0≤6.2 and R distributes in the range from 5 to 70 km,whileit shows a linear correlation when M0≥6.3.The statistical results also show that the occupational ratios of differentsequence types for strike-slip and oblique slip are almost the same.But for dip-slip(mostly are thrust mechanisms),the ratio of MAT is higher than that of IET and MMT.Comparing with previous results,it indicates that,when M0is large enough,R is mainly determined by M0 and there is almost no relationship with the rupture mode of themain shock.     

The earthquake distribution and the resistivity structure in the Chinese mainland (I)

This paper is the first one of a series of three papers on the fluid evolution of the crust-upper mantle and the causes of earthquakes. Their relationship between the deep-seated fluids and the seismic activities are discussed from aspects of their macoscopic scale, microscopic mechanism and dynamic behaviors in the three papers respectively. Based on magnetotelluric sounding (MT) measurements conducted by Chinese geophysicists in more than 20 years, the maps of the upper mantle conductive layer (MCL) with a buried depth of >50 km and the crustal conductive layer (CCL) with a buried depth of >15 km in the Chinese mainland are presented in this paper. The resistivity structure, the causes of conductive layers in crust-mantle and the relationships between earthquake distribution and conductive layers are discussed.     

中国大陆及周缘地震目录完整性统计分析

地震目录资料是进行地震预测、地震危险性分析、地震活动性研究等地震学研究的基础资料.对地震目录资料的完整性可靠性分析是地震学研究的基础工作之一.近几十年来我国积累的大量的仪器地震记录,历史地震也在不断更新,为地震活动性研究提供了更为丰富的样本,因此有必要对新的地震目录进行完整性分析.本文采用了新的统计方法对我国仪器记录地震目录和历史破坏性地震目录进行了完整性分析.结果表明,对于仪器记录地震目录（M≥3.0）我国东部地区1975年后基本完整,西部地区1980年后基本完整.对于历史地震目录（M≥5.0）,东部地区1500年后基本完整,西部地区1950年后基本完整.考虑到华北地震区历史破坏性地震（M≥43/4）活动的时间非平稳性,我们采用突变点分析法研究了华北地震区历史破坏性地震目录的时间特征,得到了华北地震区地震活动周期性变化的突变点位置,并揭示了华北地震区历史破坏性地震目录完整起始时间约为公元1500年前后.