Modelling and attributing evapotranspiration changes on China’s Loess Plateau with Budyko framework considering vegetation dynamics and climate seasonality

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - The Grain for Green Project in China’s Loess Plateau has significantly increased the vegetation coverage (M) since it was implemented...     

Streamflow sensitivity analysis to climate change for a large water‐limited basin

Partitioning precipitation (P) between streamflow (Q) and actual evapotranspiration (E_a) on a basin scale is controlled by climate change in combination with catchment characteristics. Fu's formulation of the Budyko framework was used to estimate Q as a function of two meteorological variables, P and potential evaporation (E_p), and one adjustable parameter reflecting characteristics of catchment conditions (ω). Results show that ω reflects the impacts of catchment characteristics on the partitioning of P between Q and E_a for the different water yielding regions. As predicted, Q was more sensitive to P than to comparable changes in E_p for the whole of the Yellow River Basin (YRB), a water‐limited basin, while it was shown to be highly sensitive to changes in P, E_p, and ω in the low water yielding region (LWYR) of the basin, followed by YRB and the high water yielding region of the basin. The high sensitivity of Q to P, E_p, and ω in LWYR indicates that the management of catchments within these zones is critical to the management of overall basin flow, mitigating impacts of climate change on Q. The Budyko framework, incorporating the adjustable parameter ω, outlines interactions between Q, climate, and characteristics specific to different water yielding regions. It also provides a new approach in understanding hydrological process response to climate change. Due to the obscure physical attributes of ω, an explanation of the parameter using soil or vegetation characteristics will aid in the understanding of the eco‐hydrological behaviour of catchments and help to provide more detailed catchment management options for which to mitigate climate change with respect to concerns regarding agricultural water usage. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the temporal variance of evapotranspiration considering climate and catchment storage factors

Understanding the temporal variance of evapotranspiration (ET) at the catchment scale remains a challenging task, because ET variance results from the complex interactions among climate, soil, vegetation, groundwater and human activities. This study extends the framework for ET variance analysis of Koster and Suarez (1999) by incorporating the water balance and the Budyko hypothesis. ET variance is decomposed into the variance/covariance of precipitation, potential ET, and catchment storage change. The contributions to ET variance from those components are quantified by long-term climate conditions (i.e., precipitation and potential ET) and catchment properties through the Budyko equation. It is found that climate determines ET variance under cool-wet, hot-dry and hot-wet conditions; while both catchment storage change and climate together control ET variance under cool-dry conditions. Thus the major factors of ET variance can be categorized based on the conditions of climate and catchment storage change. To demonstrate the analysis, both the inter- and intra-annul ET variances are assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin, and it is found that the framework corrects the over-estimation of ET variance in the arid basin. This study provides an extended theoretical framework to assess ET temporal variance under the impacts from both climate and storage change at the catchment scale.     

Quantifying the impact of climate variables on reference evapotranspiration in Pearl River Basin,China

ABSTRACT

The impact of climate variables on monthly reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) is a critical issue in water resources management and irrigation planning. The spatio-temporal contribution of climate variables to ET_o in the Pearl River Basin (PRB), China, from 1960 to 2016 were calculated based on sensitivity and relative change of each climatic variable. The results show that annual ET_o total decreased by 1.64% and diminished in magnitude from the southeast to the northwest. Sunshine duration, wind speed and relative humidity decreased by 15.5%, 7.4%, and 4.0%, respectively, while average temperature increased by 4.25%. The ET_o showed a positive sensitivity to all variables except relative humidity, which showed a negative sensitivity. Sunshine duration had the highest contribution of ?4.26%, and the overall decrease in ET_o was mainly caused by the declines in sunshine duration and wind speed, which offset the positive impact of rises in average temperature and reduction in relative humidity.     

Separating climate change and human contributions to variations in streamflow and its components using eight time‐trend methods

Separating impacts of human activities and climate change on hydrology is essential for watershed and ecosystem management. Many previous studies have focused on the impacts on total streamflow, however, with little attentions paid to its components (i.e., baseflow and surface run‐off). This study distinguished the contributions of climate change and human activities to the variations in streamflow, baseflow, and surface run‐off in the upstream area of the Heihe River Basin, a typical inland river basin in northwest China, by using eight different forms of time‐trend methods. The isolated contributions to streamflow variation were also compared with those obtained by two Budyko‐based approaches. Our results showed that the time‐trend methods consistently estimated positive contributions of climate variability and human activities to the increases in streamflow and its components but with obviously varying magnitudes. With regard to streamflow, the time‐trend method double‐mass‐curve–Wei, with a physical basis, produced a reasonable smaller contribution of human activities than climate changes, inconsistent with the Budyko‐based approaches. However, all the other time‐trend methods led to contrary results. The contributions to baseflow variation diverged more significantly than those to streamflow and surface run‐off, ranging from 24% to 92% for human activities and from 8% to 76% for climate variability. In terms of surface run‐off, most of the time‐trend approaches produced smaller contributions of human activities (ranging from 21% to 49%) than climate change. The uncertainties associated with the various time‐trend approaches and the baseflow separation algorithm were revealed and discussed, along with some recommendations for future work.     

Changes in climate,vegetation cover and vegetation composition affect runoff generation in the Gulf of Guinea Basin

Although considerable effort has been deployed to understand the impact of climate variability and vegetation change on runoff in major basins across Africa, such studies are scarce in the Gulf of Guinea Basin (GGB). This study combines the Budyko framework and elasticity concept along with geospatial data to fill this research gap in 44 nested sub-basins in the GGB. Annual rainfall from 1982 to 2021 show significant decreasing and increasing trends in the northern and southern parts of the GGB, respectively. Annual potential evapotranspiration (PET) also shows significant increasing trends with higher magnitudes observed in the northern parts of the GGB. Changing trends in climate variables corroborates with shift to arid and wetter conditions in the north and south, respectively. From 2000 to 2020 vegetation cover estimated using enhanced vegetation index (EVI) shows significant increasing trends in all sub-basins including those experiencing a decline in annual rainfall. Vegetation composition measured using vegetation continuous fields (VCFs) from 2000 to 2020 show an increase in tree canopy cover (TC), a decline in short vegetation cover and marginal changes in bare ground cover (BG). Elasticity coefficients show that a 10% increase in annual rainfall and PET may lead to a 33% increase and 24% decline in runoff, respectively. On the other hand, a 10% increase in EVI may lead to a 4% decline in runoff while a 10% increase in TC, SV and BG may reduce runoff by 4% and increase runoff by 3% and 2%, respectively. Even though changes are marginal, decomposing vegetation into different parameters using EVI and VCFs may lead to different hydrological effects on runoff which is one of the novelties of this study that may be used for implementing nature-based solutions. The study also demonstrates that freely available geospatial data together with analytical methods are a promising approach for understanding the impact of climate variability and vegetation change on hydrology in data-scarce regions.     

Diel discharge variations in dormant and growing seasons in a headwater catchment suggest potential sources of an evapotranspiration signal

Diel fluctuations in discharge not associated with precipitation have been identified in streams around the world and attributed to evapotranspiration of both hillslope and near-stream vegetation. Several mechanisms have been hypothesized to explain the generation of these signals, but a consensus has not been reached. In order to investigate the origin of these daily discharge fluctuations, we measured discharge and groundwater levels in a 43-ha headwater catchment near Cullowhee, NC, USA. The catchment was logged at least twice in the past 120 years, allowing the evergreen invasive Chinese privet (Ligustrum sinense) to become established in near-stream areas. Stream discharge was measured at the outlet, and stream stage and near-stream groundwater level were measured at a second location higher in the catchment. Daily fluctuations in discharge were quantified and found to increase in magnitude with daily mean discharge. Interestingly, daily discharge fluctuations were observed in the dormant season, and our analysis suggests that their magnitude may increase more with discharge than during the growing season. Two previously hypothesized processes may explain our observations. A decrease in signal dampening due to faster transmission of an evapotranspiration signal at elevated flows may explain the increased diel fluctuation magnitude at higher flows. Additionally, because the primary active vegetation in our catchment in the dormant season is in near-stream areas, we suggest that this indicates most of the evapotranspiration signal in stream discharge is derived from near-stream vegetation, not hillslopes.     

Modelling the role of climate,vegetation and pedogenesis in shallow translational hillslope failure

Recent research in geomorphology has considered the significance of progressive pedogenesis and climatic change to slope failure initiation for the Holocene, using physically based models. To date, the significance of vegetation change to slope stability has been largely unexplored through modelling, since available physically based models cannot consider vegetation effects directly. To address the existing deficiency this paper adapts, parameterizes and applies a physically based model of slope hydrology and stability to the combined effect of vegetation change and progessive pedogenesis on slope failure initiation. There is considerable debate in the literature concerning the relative significance of climatic change and vegetation modification to slope failure initiation in the Holocene. This paper uses the model to provide additional evidence for situations in which either climatic or vegetation change is significant to slope failure, depending on the prevailing degree of soil development. The results indicate that young podsols appear to be stable under all the climatic and vegetation conditions considered, but mature podsols may be susceptible to failure. Both climate and vegetation influence slope stability, but their relative significance depends on the stage of soil development. In particular, the stability of young soils is influenced considerably by vegetation, while climate assumes greater significance in mature soils. It is recognized that this conclusion is limited to freely draining podsol profiles, and that more research is needed to consider other soil type and vegetation combinations.     

The 1800-year variation of the lower Yellow River bank breachings in relation to the drainage basin vegetation reconstructed using cave stalagmite records

Rivers are closely related to climate, and the hydrogeomorphic features and stability of river channels respond sensitively to climatic change. However, the history of instrumental observations of climatic, hydrological and channel changes is short, notably limiting our ability to understand the complex river responses to long-term climate change and human activity. In this study, we show that cave stalagmite records reflected the variations in precipitation and temperature in the Yellow River basin, and the net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation over the past 1800 years can therefore be reconstructed. We found that the reconstructed annual mean precipitation (P_m) and NPP closely related to the 1800-year variation of the lower Yellow River (LYR) channel instability indexed by the frequency of the LYR levee breaching events (LBEs) (F_b) derived from historical documents. The temporal variations in P_m, NPP and F_b exhibited an anti-phase relationship (negative correlation) and in-phase relationship (positive correlation), referred to as Type I and Type II relationships, respectively. The two types alternately appeared, dividing the studied period into several sub-periods. Type I occurred when the vegetation remained in a quasi-natural condition, and Type II occurred when the vegetation had been altered by humans to some degree. These features reflect complex river behaviours in response to climate change and human activity and may be explained by the interaction between climate, vegetation and human activity on the millennial timescale. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling the interaction of climate,forest ecosystem,and hydrology to estimate catchment dissolved organic carbon export

The potential for increased loads of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in streams and rivers is a concern for regulating the water quality in water supply watersheds. With increasing hydroclimatic variability related to global warming and shifts in forest ecosystem community and structure, understanding and predicting the magnitude and variability of watershed supply and transport of DOC over multiple time scales have become important research and management goals. In this study, we use a distributed process‐based ecohydrological model (Regional Hydro‐Ecological Simulation System [RHESSys]) to explore controls and predict streamflow DOC loads in Biscuit Brook. Biscuit Brook is a forested headwater catchment of the Neversink Reservoir, part of the New York City water supply system in the Catskill Mountains. Three different model structures of RHESSys were proposed to explore and evaluate hypotheses addressing how vegetation phenology and hydrologic connectivity between deep groundwater and riparian zones influence streamflow and DOC loads. Model results showed that incorporating dynamic phenology improved model agreement with measured streamflow in spring, summer, and fall and fall DOC concentration, compared with a static phenology. Additionally, the connectivity of deep groundwater flux through riparian zones with dynamic phenology improved streamflow and DOC flux in low flow conditions. Therefore, this study suggests the importance of inter‐annual vegetation phenology and the connectivity of deep groundwater drainage through riparian zones in the hydrology and stream DOC loading in this forested watershed and the ability of process‐based ecohydrological models to simulate these dynamics. The advantage of a process‐based modelling approach is specifically seen in the sensitivity to forest ecosystem dynamics and the interactions of hydroclimate variability with ecosystem processes controlling the supply and distribution of DOC. These models will be useful to evaluate different forest management approaches toward mitigating water quality concerns.     

Monotonic trend and abrupt changes for major climate variables in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin

On the basis of the mean air temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and pan evaporation at 23 meteorological stations in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin from 1960 to 2001, the long‐term monotonic trend and abrupt changes for major climate variables have been investigated. The plausible monotonic trend of annual climatic time series are detected using a non‐parametric method. The abrupt changes have been investigated in terms of a 5 year moving averaged annual series, using the moving t‐test (MTT) method, Yamamoto method and Mann–Kendall method. The results showed that the annual air temperature has increased by 0·80 °C in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin during the past 42 years. One obvious cold period and one warm period were detected. The warmest centre was located in the northern part of the basin. The long‐term trend for annual precipitation was not significant during the same period, but a dry tendency was detected. According to the Kendall slope values, the declining centre for annual precipitation was located in the eastern part and the centre of the study area. The long‐term monotonic trend for annual sunshine duration and pan evaporation were negative. The average Kendall slopes are ? 29·96 h/10 yr and ? 39·63 mm/10 yr, respectively. The tests for abrupt changes using MTT and Yamamoto methods show similar results. Abrupt changes occurred in the mid 1980s for temperature, in the late 1980s for precipitation and in the early 1980s for sunshine duration and pan evaporation. It can be seen that the abrupt changes really happened in the 1980s for the climate variables. Different results are shown using the Mann–Kendall method. Both the abrupt changes of temperature and precipitation took place in the early 1990s, and that of pan evaporation occurred in the 1960s. The only abrupt change in sunshine duration happened during the similar period (in the 1980s) with the results detected by the MTT and Yamamoto methods. The abrupt changes which occurred in the 1990s and 1960s are not detectable using the MTT and Yamamoto methods because of the data limitation. However, the results tested by the MTT and Yamamoto methods exhibited great consistency. Some of the reasons may be due to the similar principles for these two methods. Different methods testing the abrupt climatic changes have their own merits and limitations and should be compared based on their own assumption and applicable conditions when they are used. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical downscaling of reference evapotranspiration in Haihe River Basin: applicability assessment and application to future projection

Future changes in reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) are of increasing importance in assessing the potential impacts on hydrology and water resources systems of more pronounced climate change. This study assesses the applicability of the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in projecting ET₀, and investigates the seasonal and spatial patterns of future ET₀ based on general circulation models (GCMs) across the Haihe River Basin. The results indicate that SDSM can downscale ET₀ well in term of different basin-averaged measures for the HadCM3 and CGCM3 GCMs. HadCM3 has a much superior capability in capturing inter-annual variability compared to CGCM3 and thus is chosen as the sole model to assess the changes in future ET₀. There are three homogeneous sub-regions of the Haihe River Basin: Northwest, Northeast and Southeast. Change points are detected at around 2050 and 2080 under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. The Northwest is revealed to have a slight to strong increase in ET₀, while the Northeast and the Southeast tend to experience a pattern change from decrease to increase in ET₀.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman

ASSOCIATE EDITOR J. Thompson     

A spatial analysis of hydro‐climatic and vegetation condition trends in the Yellow River basin

Stream‐gauge data indicate that the flow of the Yellow River has declined during the past several decades. Zero flow in sections of the river channel, i.e. the Yellow River drying‐up phenomenon, has occurred since the 1970s. In this paper we present an analysis of changes in the spatial patterns of climatic and vegetation condition data in the Yellow River basin based on data from meteorological stations and satellites. The climatic data are from 1960 to 2000 and the vegetation condition data are from 1982 to 2000. The angular‐distance‐weighted interpolation method is used to get climatic data coverage from station observations. The spatial distribution of tendency is detected with Student's t‐test. The spatial patterns of climatic and vegetation condition change was analysed together with the statistical data on human activities. The analysis indicates that the precipitation decreases and temperature increases in most parts of the Yellow River basin, the evaporative demand of the atmosphere decreases in the upper reaches and increases in the lower reaches, and human activities have improved the vegetation condition in the irrigation districts. The Loess Plateau, the Tibetan Plateau, and the irrigation districts are respectively suggested as precipitation, temperature, and human activity hot spots of the Yellow River drying‐up phenomenon. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling feedbacks between geomorphological and riparian vegetation responses under climate change in a Mediterranean context

Climate change is expected to alter temperatures and precipitation patterns, affecting river flows and hence riparian corridors. In this context we have explored the potential evolution of riparian corridors under a dryness gradient of flow regimes associated with climate change in a Mediterranean river. We have applied an advanced bio‐hydromorphodynamic model incorporating interactions between hydro‐morphodynamics and vegetation. Five scenarios, representing drier conditions and more extreme events, and an additional reference scenario without climate change, have been designed and extended until the year 2100. The vegetation model assesses colonization, growth and mortality of Salicaceae species. We analysed the lower course of the Curueño River, a free flowing gravel bed river (NW Spain), as a representative case study of the Mediterranean region. Modelling results reveal that climate change will affect both channel morphology and riparian vegetation in terms of cover, age distribution and mortality. Reciprocal interactions between flow conditions and riparian species as bio‐engineers are predicted to promote channel narrowing, which becomes more pronounced as dryness increases. Reductions in seedling cover and increases in sapling and mature forest cover are predicted for all climate change scenarios compared with the reference scenario, and the suitable area for vegetation development declines and shifts towards lower floodplain elevations. Climate change also leads to younger vegetation becoming more subject to uprooting and flooding. The predicted reduction in suitable establishment areas and the narrowing of vegetated belts threatens the persistence of the current riparian community. This study highlights the usefulness of advanced bio‐hydromorphodynamic modelling for assessing climate change effects on fluvial landscapes. It also illustrates the need to consider climate change in river management to identify appropriate adaptation measures for riparian ecosystems. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temporal trends of hydro‐climatic variables and runoff response to climatic variability and vegetation changes in the Yiluo River basin,China

The Yiluo River is the largest tributary for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River below Sanmenxia Dam. Changes of the hydrological processes in the Yiluo River basin, influenced by the climatic variability and human activities, can directly affect ecological integrity in the lower reach of the Yellow River. Understanding the impact of the climatic variability and human activities on the hydrological processes in the Yiluo River basin is especially important to maintain the ecosystem integrity and sustain the society development in the lower reach of the Yellow River basin. In this study, the temporal trends of annual precipitation, air temperature, reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) and runoff during 1961–2000 in the Yiluo River basin were explored by the Mann‐Kendall method (M‐K method), Yamamoto method and linear fitted model. The impacts of the climatic variability and vegetation changes on the annual runoff were discussed by the empirical model and simple water balance model and their contribution to change of annual runoff have been estimated. Results indicated that (i) significant upwards trend for air temperature and significant downwards trend both for precipitation and ET₀ were detected by the M‐K method at 95% confidence level. And the consistent trends were obtained by the linear fitted model; (ii) the abrupt change started from 1987 detected by the M‐K method and Yamamoto method, and so the annual runoff during 1961–2000 was divided into two periods: baseline period (1961–1986) and changeable period (1987–2000); and (iii) the vegetation changes were the main cause for change of annual runoff from baseline period to changeable period, and climatic variability contributed a little to the change of annual runoff of the Yiluo River. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Run-off affected by climate and anthropogenic changes in a large semi-arid river basin

A rapid reduction in run-off has been observed in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin in recent decades. Understanding the contributions of climate change and human activities, such as vegetation restoration and water consumption, to surface water resource reduction has become urgent and very important for future regional planning. Here, we use attribution approaches to explore the effects of climate change and human activities on run-off over the past six decades. The results showed that the observed annual run-off at Tongguan station, which is located within the mainstream of the Yellow River, exhibited a significant decreasing trend of −0.69 mm year⁻¹ (p < .01) and varied from −0.28 to −1.46 mm year⁻¹ (p < .01) in the eight selected tributaries from 1960 to 2015. Two relatively abrupt changes in the double mass curves occurred around 1979 and 1999; compared with Period 1 (P1; 1960–1979), the average catchment run-off decreased 32% during Period 2 (P2; 1980–1999) and up to 49% during Period 3 (P3; 2000–2015). We calculated that approximately 29% of the reduction in the run-off during P2 and 18% during P3 were attributed to climate change. Increased surface water consumption resulted in effective run-off reduction, with relative contributions of approximately 27% and 28% during P2 and P3, respectively. With the implementation of the “Grain-for-Green” project, the vegetation coverage rapidly increased from 36% in P1 to 52% in P3 and reduced run-off by 35% during P3. These findings explain the run-off reduction and benefit water resource management in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin.     

Effects of climate and land-use change on green-water variations in the Middle Yellow River,China

Abstract

Water resources management should cover both blue water and green water. For green-water management at the river drainage basin scale, the green-water coefficient (C _gw) is adopted, defined as the ratio of annual green water to annual precipitation. Based on data from the Middle Yellow River basin, China, for the period 1950 to 2007, we studied the temporal variation in C _gw in response to some influencing factors. A decreasing trend in C _gw was found. The influence of changes in land management on C _gw, reflected by an increase in the area (A _sw) of soil and water conservation measures, is emphasized. Using multiple regression analysis, the contributions of A _sw and the 5-year moving averages of annual precipitation and air temperature were estimated as 51, 37 and 12%, respectively. The results may provide useful information for better management of water resources, including green and blue water flows in the Yellow River basin.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Gerten

Citation Xu, J.-X., 2013. Effects of climate and land-use change on green-water variations in the Middle Yellow River, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–12.     

Evapotranspiration is resilient in the face of land cover and climate change in a humid temperate catchment

In temperate humid catchments, evapotranspiration returns more than half of the annual precipitation to the atmosphere, thereby determining the balance available to recharge groundwaters and support stream flow and lake levels. Changes in evapotranspiration rates and, therefore, catchment hydrology could be driven by changes in land use or climate. Here, we examine the catchment water balance over the past 50 years for a catchment in southwest Michigan covered by cropland, grassland, forest, and wetlands. Over the study period, about 27% of the catchment has been abandoned from row‐crop agriculture to perennial vegetation and about 20% of the catchment has reverted to deciduous forest, and the climate has warmed by 1.14 °C. Despite these changes in land use, the precipitation and stream discharge, and by inference catchment‐scale evapotranspiration, have been stable over the study period. The remarkably stable rates of evapotranspirative water loss from the catchment across a period of significant land cover change suggest that rainfed annual crops and perennial vegetation do not differ greatly in evapotranspiration rates, and this is supported by measurements of evapotranspiration from various vegetation types based on soil water monitoring in the same catchment. Compensating changes in the other meteorological drivers of evaporative water demand besides air temperature—wind speed, atmospheric humidity, and net radiation—are also possible but cannot be evaluated due to insufficient local data across the 50‐year period. Regardless of the explanation, this study shows that the water balance of this landscape has been resilient in the face of both land cover and climate change over the past 50 years.     

Streamflow trends and climate linkages in the source region of the Yellow River,China

Much of the discussion on hydrological trends and variability in the source region of the Yellow River centres on the mean values of the mainstream flows. Changes in hydrological extremes in the mainstream as well as in the tributary flows are largely unexplored. Although decreasing water availability has been noted, the nature of those changes is less explored. This article investigates trends and variability in the hydrological regimes (both mean values and extreme events) and their links with the local climate in the source region of the Yellow River over the last 50 years (1959–2008). This large catchment is relatively undisturbed by anthropogenic influences such as abstraction and impoundments, enabling the characterization of widely natural, climate‐driven trends. A total of 27 hydrological variables were used as indicators for the analysis. Streamflow records from six major headwater catchments and climatic data from seven stations were studied. The trend results vary considerably from one river basin to another, and become more accentuated with longer time period. Overall, the source region of the Yellow River is characterized by an overall tendency towards decreasing water availability. Noteworthy are strong decreasing trends in the winter (dry season) monthly flows of January to March and September as well as in annual mean flow, annual 1‐, 3‐, 7‐, 30‐ and 90‐day maxima and minima flows for Maqu and Tangnag catchments over the period 1959–2008. The hydrological variables studied are closely related to precipitation in the wet season (June, July, August and September), indicating that the widespread decrease in wet season precipitation is expected to be associated with significant decrease in streamflow. To conclude, decreasing precipitation, particularly in the wet season, along with increasing temperature can be associated with pronounced decrease in water resources, posing a significant challenge to downstream water uses. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variation of reference evapotranspiration and its contributing climatic factors in the Poyang Lake catchment,China

By using linear regression (parametric), Mann–Kendall (nonparametric) and attribution analysis methods, this study systematically analysed the changing properties of reference evapotranspiration (ETr) calculated using the Penman–Monteith method over the Poyang Lake catchment during 1960–2008 and investigated the contribution of major climatic variables to ETr changes and their temporal evolution. Generally, a significant decreasing trend of annual ETr is found in the catchment. The decrease of annual ETr in the Poyang Lake basin is mostly affected by the decline of summer ETr. Over the study period, climatic variables, i.e. sunshine duration (SD), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (WS) and vapour pressure all showed decreasing trends, whereas mean daily temperature (DT) increased significantly. Multivariate regression analysis indicated that SD is the most sensitive climatic variable to the variability of ETr on annual basis, followed by RH, WS and DT, whereas the effect of vapour pressure is obscure. Although recent warming trend and decrease of relative humidity over the catchment could have increased ETr, the combined effect of shortened SD and reduced WS negated the effect and caused significant decrease of ETr. Our investigation reveals that the relative contributions of climatic variables to ETr are temporally unstable and vary considerably with large fluctuation. In consideration of the changes of climatic variables over time, further analysis indicated that changes of mean annual ETr in 1970–2008 were primarily affected by SD followed by WS, RH and DT with reference to 1960s. However, WS became the predominant factor during the period 2000–2008 compared with reference period 1960s, and followed by SD. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.