Erosive water level regime and climatic variability forcing of beach–dune systems on south‐western Vancouver Island,British Columbia,Canada

Increases in the frequency and magnitude of extreme water levels and storm surges are correlated with known indices of climatic variability (CV), including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), along some areas of the British Columbia coast. Since a shift to a positive PDO regime in 1977, the effects of ENSO events have been more frequent, persistent, and intense. Teleconnected impacts include more frequent storms, higher surges, and enhanced coastal erosion. The response of oceanographic forcing mechanisms (i.e. tide, surge, wave height, wave period) to CV events and their role in coastal erosion remain unclear, particularly in western Canada. As a first step in exploring the interactions between ocean–atmosphere forcing and beach–dune responses, this paper assembles the historic erosive total water level (TWL) regime and explores relations with observed high magnitude storms that have occurred in the Tofino‐Ucluelet region (Wickaninnish Bay) on the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. Extreme events where TWL exceeded an erosional threshold (i.e. elevation of the beach–foredune junction) of 5·5 m aCD are examined to identify dominant forcing mechanisms and to classify a regime that describes erosive events driven principally by wave conditions (61·5%), followed by surge (21·8%), and tidal (16·7%) effects. Furthermore, teleconnections between regional CV phenomena, extreme storm events and, by association, coastal erosion, are explored. Despite regional sea level rise (eustatic and steric), rapid crustal uplift rates have resulted in a falling relative sea level and, in some sedimentary systems, shoreline progradation at rates approaching +1·5 m a^–1 over recent decades. Foredune erosion occurs locally with a recurrence interval of approximately 1·53 years followed by rapid rebuilding due to high onshore sand supply and often in the presence of large woody debris and rapidly colonizing vegetation in the backshore. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Can sand dunes be used to study historic storm events?

Knowing the long‐term frequency of high magnitude storm events that cause coastal inundation is critical for present coastal management, especially in the context of rising sea levels and potentially increasing frequency and severity of storm events. Coastal sand dunes may provide a sedimentary archive of past storm events from which long‐term frequencies of large storms can be reconstructed. This study uses novel portable optically stimulated luminescence (POSL) profiles from coastal dunes to reconstruct the sedimentary archive of storm and surge activity for Norfolk, UK. Application of POSL profiling with supporting luminescence ages and particle size analysis to coastal dunes provides not only information of dunefield evolution but also on past coastal storms. In this study, seven storm events, two major, were identified from the dune archive spanning the last 140 years. These appear to correspond to historical reports of major storm surges. Dunes appear to be only recording (at least at the sampling resolution used here) the highest storm levels that were associated with significant flooding. As such the approach seems to hold promise to obtain a better understanding of the frequency of large storms by extending the dune archive records further back to times when documentation of storm surges was sparse. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Numerical simulation of vertical marsh growth and adjustment to accelerated sea-level rise,North Norfolk,U.K.

In parts of North America and Europe, present and future sedimentary deficits translate into major areal losses of coastal salt marsh. Physically based simulations of medium- to long-term adjustment to accelerated sea-level rise are few, partly due to the difficulty in extrapolating imperfectly understood sedimentation parameters. This paper outlines the implementation and application of a simple one-dimensional mass balance model designed to simulate the vertical adjustment of predominantly minerogenic marsh surfaces to various combinations of sediment supply, tidal levels and regional subsidence. Two aspects of marsh growth are examined, with reference to sites on the macro-tidal north Norfolk coast, U.K.: (i) historical marsh growth under a scenario of effective (long-term) eustatic stability but slow regional subsidence; and (ii) marsh response to various non-linear eustatic rise scenarios for the next century. In contrast to more organogenic North American marshes, sedimentation rates in Norfolk are strongly time-dependent. Where the overall sediment budget is so closely linked to marsh age and relative elevation, some form of numerical simulation offers a preferred means of predicting the impact of accelerated sea-level rise. Simulations performed here show that only the most dramatic eustatic scenarios result in ecological ‘drowning’ and reversion to tidal flat within the conventional 2100 prediction interval. Currently favoured scenarios give rise to accretionary deficits which are clearly sustainable in the short-term, albeit at the expense of increased inundation frequency and consequent changes in the distribution of marsh flora and fauna.     

High-resolution optical dating of Late Holocene storm surge deposits – a showcase from Schokland (Noordoostpolder,the Netherlands)

Storm surges have a major impact on land use and human habitation in coastal regions. Our knowledge of this impact can be improved by correlating long-term historical storm records with sedimentary evidence of storm surges, but so far few studies have applied such an approach. Here we apply, for the first time, state-of-the-art optically stimulating luminescence (OSL) methods to obtain high-resolution age information on a sequence of Late Holocene storm surge deposits. By combining this chronological framework of storm surges with other reconstruction methods, we investigate the storm surge impact on the former island Schokland, located in a former inlet of the North Sea (central Netherlands).During the Late Holocene, Schokland transformed from a peat area that gradually inundated (~800 CE) via an island in a marginal marine environment (~1600 CE) to a land-locked island in the reclaimed Province of Flevoland (1942 CE). These transitions are recorded in the sediment archive of the island, consisting of silty clay with sandy intervals deposited during storm surges. A series of ten quartz OSL ages, obtained using best-practice methods to deal with incomplete resetting of the OSL signal and dose rate heterogeneity, reveal two periods of storm surge deposition, around 1600 CE and between 1742 and 1822 CE. Historical sources indicate that major storm surges hit Schokland during these periods. Laboratory analyses (thermogravimetry, grain-size, foraminifera, bivalves and ostracods) corroborates the existence of the two sets of storm surge deposits within the clay sequence. Our study sets a benchmark for obtaining robust depositional age constraints from storm surge sediments, and demonstrates the great potential of modern OSL methods to contribute to improved assessment of storm surge risk. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamics of salt marsh margins are related to their three-dimensional functional form

The three-dimensional configuration of sedimentary landforms in intertidal environments represents a major control on regional hydrodynamics. It modulates the location and magnitude of forces exerted by tidal currents and waves on the landform itself and on engineered infrastructure such as sea walls or coastal defences. Furthermore, the effect is reflexive, with the landforms representing an integrated, long-term response to the forces exerted on them. There is a strong reciprocal linkage between form and process (morphodynamics) in the coastal zone which is significantly lagged and poorly understood in the case of cohesive, vegetated sediments in the intertidal zone. A method is presented that links the geometric properties of the tidal flat–salt marsh interface to the history and potential future evolution of that interface. A novel quantitative classification scheme that is capable of separating marsh margins based on their functional form is developed and is applied to demonstrate that relationships exist between landform configuration and morphological evolution across a regional extent. This provides evidence of a spatially variable balance between self-organized and external controls on morphodynamic evolution and the first quantitative basis for a quick assessment procedure for likely future dynamism. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geomorphic knowledge for mangrove restoration: a pan‐tropical categorization

Extreme events such as storm surges and tsunamis in combination with subsidence of densely populated coastal areas pose an increasing threat to millions of people in the tropics. Intertidal mangrove forests may form a natural protection against some extreme events, but have also widely been destroyed by coastal development. The establishment of mangroves and the maintenance of their stability over the short‐ to long‐term requires an understanding of sedimentary processes and landforms in the coastal zone, making geomorphology a crucial, but sometimes neglected discipline when attempting restoration for disaster risk reduction. Mangrove geomorphic setting varies markedly across the tropics, depending on abiotic parameters such as suspended sediment supply and tidal range, with different restoration strategies suitable for each. In this study we provide a global categorization of mangrove geomorphic settings, based on the literature and global remote sensing data. The world's mangroves can be broadly defined as: (1) minerogenic and high tidal range; (2) minerogenic and low tidal range; and (3) organogenic and low tidal range. We further discuss restoration and management approaches most suitable for each geomorphic setting. Overall, this study can be used to inform managers about the relevance of geomorphic knowledge for successful mangrove restoration, how an understanding of geomorphology can influence site selection and restoration success, and how to match specific restoration methods to the prevailing geomorphic context. The stronger incorporation of geomorphic knowledge into site planning and design will improve the success rates of restoration for this important and globally threatened ecosystem. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sedimentological,modal analysis and geochemical studies of desert and coastal dunes,Altar Desert,NW Mexico

Sedimentological, compositional and geochemical determinations were carried out on 54 desert and coastal dune sand samples to study the provenance of desert and coastal dunes of the Altar Desert, Sonora, Mexico. Grain size distributions of the desert dune sands are influenced by the Colorado River Delta sediment supply and wind selectiveness. The desert dune sands are derived mainly from the quartz‐rich Colorado River Delta sediments and sedimentary lithics. The dune height does not exert a control over the grain size distributions of the desert dune sands. The quartz enrichment of the desert dune sands may be due to wind sorting, which concentrates more quartz grains, and to the aeolian activity, which has depleted the feldspar grains through subaerial collisions. The desert dune sands suffer from little chemical weathering and they are chemically homogeneous, with chemical alteration indices similar to those found in other deserts of the world. The desert sands have been more influenced by sedimentary and granitic sources. This is supported by the fact that Ba and Sr concentration values of the desert sands are within the range of the Ba and Sr concentration values of the Colorado River quartz‐rich sediments. The Sr values are also linked to the presence of Ca‐bearing minerals. The Zr values are linked to the sedimentary sources and heavy mineral content in the desert dunes. The Golfo de Santa Clara and Puerto Peñasco coastal dune sands are influenced by long shore drift, tidal and aeolian processes. Coarse grains are found on the flanks whereas fine grains are on the crest of the dunes. High tidal regimens, long shore drift and supply from Colorado Delta River sediments produce quartz‐rich sands on the beach that are subsequently transported into the coastal dunes. Outcrops of Quaternary sedimentary rocks and granitic sources increase the sedimentary and plutonic lithic content of the coastal dune sands. The chemical index of alteration (CIA) values for the desert and coastal dune sands indicate that both dune types are chemically homogeneous. The trace element values for the coastal dune sands are similar to those found for the desert dune sands. However, an increase in Sr content in the coastal dune sands may be due to more CaCO₃ of biogenic origin as compared to the desert dune sands. Correlations between the studied parameters show that the dune sands are controlled by sedimentary sources (e.g. Colorado River Delta sediments), since heavy minerals are present in low percentages in the dune sands, probably due to little heavy mineral content from the source sediment; grain sizes in the dune sands are coarser than those in which heavy minerals are found and/or the wind speed might not exert a potential entrainment effect on the heavy mineral fractions to be transported into the dune. A cluster analysis shows that the El Pinacate group is significantly different from the rest of the dune sands in terms of the grain‐size parameters due to longer transport of the sands and the long distance from the source sediment, whereas the Puerto Peñasco coastal dune sands are different from the rest of the groups in terms of their geochemistry, probably caused by their high CaCO₃ content and slight decrease in the CIA value. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flood defence in the Blackwater Estuary, Essex, UK: the impact of sedimentological and geochemical changes on salt marsh development in the Tollesbury Managed Realignment site

Recent changes in the UK's coastal defence strategy have resulted in the introduction of Managed Realignment (MR), a technique which attempts to establish salt marshes on low-lying coastal farmland. This work investigates the impact of MR, in particular on the interactions between sediment movement, changes in heavy metal concentrations and salt marsh development. Pre- and post-inundation samples were collected and analysed between 1995 and 1997. Sediment transport patterns (1996) demonstrated that sediment particles were distributed by tides around the site, resulting in a change in the spatial distribution of the metals which was related to the sediment particle size distribution. Despite the presence of some metal contaminants found within the MR site, vegetated salt marsh has developed since 1997. However, heavy metals such as Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn exhibited relative depletion in the sediment developing with salt marsh in 1997, which is in agreement with data indicating that concentrations of metals within sediments is related to frequency of tidal inundation. During initial development of the site, sediment transport was the main factor controlling metal distribution, however, subsequently the frequency of tidal inundation became the most significant factor. Further work may allow for prediction of how future MR sites will develop with respect to redistribution of sediments and subsequent transport of contaminants in the dissolved phase.     

An investigation of ensemble-based assimilation of satellite altimetry and tide gauge data in storm surge prediction

Cyclogenesis and long-fetched winds along the southeastern coast of South America may lead to floods in populated areas, as the Buenos Aires Province, with important economic and social impacts. A numerical model (SMARA) has already been implemented in the region to forecast storm surges. The propagation time of the surge in such extensive and shallow area allows the detection of anomalies based on observations from several hours up to the order of a day prior to the event. Here, we investigate the impact and potential benefit of storm surge level data assimilation into the SMARA model, with the objective of improving the forecast. In the experiments, the surface wind stress from an ensemble prediction system drives a storm surge model ensemble, based on the operational 2-D depth-averaged SMARA model. A 4-D Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (4D-LETKF) initializes the ensemble in a 6-h cycle, assimilating the very few tide gauge observations available along the northern coast and satellite altimeter data. The sparse coverage of the altimeters is a challenge to data assimilation; however, the 4D-LETKF evolving covariance of the ensemble perturbations provides realistic cross-track analysis increments. Improvements on the forecast ensemble mean show the potential of an effective use of the sparse satellite altimeter and tidal gauges observations in the data assimilation prototype. Furthermore, the effects of the localization scale and of the observational errors of coastal altimetry and tidal gauges in the data assimilation approach are assessed.     

Evidence for elevated coastal vulnerability following large‐scale historical oyster bed harvesting

Living coastal barriers, such as coral reefs, tidal marshes, mangroves and shellfish beds are widely recognized for their potential role in mitigating flood risk. Limited data exists, however, for assessing the effectiveness of these natural defenses as forms of flood mitigation. In particular, very few mature shellfish beds exist today for modern study due to their destruction in the past few centuries. As an alternative method of study, we present here sedimentary reconstructions of storm overwash from coastal ponds internal to New York Harbor. We use these reconstructions to show that the initial degradation of oyster beds following European settlement of the area coincides with a significant increase in wave‐derived overwash deposition at all three of our field sites. Numerical simulations of two flood events of record in the harbor (Hurricane Sandy and a severe winter storm in 1992) were run without and with oyster beds of varying heights (1 m above the seafloor‐to‐intertidal). Simulations show that the removal of these oyster beds increases wave energy directly off‐shore of our field sites by between 30% and 200%. Sedimentary reconstructions and wave modeling experiments therefore both support oyster beds serving as a significant form of coastal protection prior to European disturbance. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simplified methods for real-time prediction of storm surge uncertainty: The city of Venice case study

Providing reliable and accurate storm surge forecasts is important for a wide range of problems related to coastal environments. In order to adequately support decision-making processes, it also become increasingly important to be able to estimate the uncertainty associated with the storm surge forecast. The procedure commonly adopted to do this uses the results of a hydrodynamic model forced by a set of different meteorological forecasts; however, this approach requires a considerable, if not prohibitive, computational cost for real-time application. In the present paper we present two simplified methods for estimating the uncertainty affecting storm surge prediction with moderate computational effort. In the first approach we use a computationally fast, statistical tidal model instead of a hydrodynamic numerical model to estimate storm surge uncertainty. The second approach is based on the observation that the uncertainty in the sea level forecast mainly stems from the uncertainty affecting the meteorological fields; this has led to the idea to estimate forecast uncertainty via a linear combination of suitable meteorological variances, directly extracted from the meteorological fields. The proposed methods were applied to estimate the uncertainty in the storm surge forecast in the Venice Lagoon. The results clearly show that the uncertainty estimated through a linear combination of suitable meteorological variances nicely matches the one obtained using the deterministic approach and overcomes some intrinsic limitations in the use of a statistical tidal model.     

Beach erosion and recovery during consecutive storms at a steep‐sloping,meso‐tidal beach

This study analyses beach morphological change during six consecutive storms acting on the meso‐tidal Faro Beach (south Portugal) between 15 December 2009 and 7 January 2010. Morphological change of the sub‐aerial beach profile was monitored through frequent topographic surveys across 11 transects. Measurements of the surf/swash zone dimensions, nearshore bar dynamics, and wave run‐up were extracted from time averaged and timestack coastal images, and wave and tidal data were obtained from offshore stations. All the information combined suggests that during consecutive storm events, the antecedent morphological state can initially be the dominant controlling factor of beach response; while the hydrodynamic forcing, and especially the tide and surge levels, become more important during the later stages of a storm period. The dataset also reveals the dynamic nature of steep‐sloping beaches, since sub‐aerial beach volume reductions up to 30 m³/m were followed by intertidal area recovery (–2 < z < 3 m) with rates reaching ~10 m³/m. However, the observed cumulative dune erosion and profile pivoting imply that storms, even of regular intensity, can have a dramatic impact when they occur in groups. Nearshore bars seemed to respond to temporal scales more related to storm sequences than to individual events. The formation of a prominent crescentic offshore bar at ~200 m from the shoreline appeared to reverse the previous offshore migration trend of the inner bar, which was gradually shifted close to the seaward swash zone boundary. The partially understood nearshore bar processes appeared to be critical for storm wave attenuation in the surf zone; and were considered mainly responsible for the poor interpretation of the observed beach behaviour on the grounds of standard, non‐dimensional, morphological parameters. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multiple‐station neural network for modelling tidal currents across Shinnecock inlet,USA

This paper presents the development of a multiple‐station neural network for predicting tidal currents across a coastal inlet. Unlike traditional hydrodynamic models, the neural network model does not need inputs of coastal topography and bathymetry, grids, surface and bottom frictions, and turbulent eddy viscosity. Without solving hydrodynamic equations, the neural network model applies an interconnected neural network to correlate the inputs of boundary forcing of water levels at a remote station to the outputs of tidal currents at multiple stations across a local coastal inlet. Coefficients in the neural network model are trained using a continuous dataset consisting of inputs of water levels at a remote station and outputs of tidal currents at the inlet, and verified using another independent input and output dataset. Once the neural network model has been satisfactorily trained and verified, it can be used to predict tidal currents at a coastal inlet from the inputs of water levels at a remote station. For the case study at Shinnecock Inlet in the southern shore of New York, tidal currents at nine stations across the inlet were predicted by the neural network model using water level data located from a station about 70 km away from the inlet. A continuous dataset in May 2000 was used for the training, and another dataset in July 2000 was used for the verification of the neural network model. Comparing model predictions and observations indicates correlation coefficients range from 0·95 to 0·98, and the root‐mean‐square error ranges from 0·04 to 0·08 m s^?1 at the nine current locations across the inlet. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Historical development of the saltmarsh at Wells,Maine

Comparisons of maps and aerial photographs dating from the late 1700s to the present document the recent development of an 8 km² saltmarsh that is situated behind a barrier spit in southern Maine. Tidal channels that were relatively narrow in 1794 became wider by 1872. The reduction of marsh bordering tidal channels is interpreted as evidence that marsh accretion could not keep pace with rising sea-level. This suggests that the rate of sea-level rise had increased, although a change in discharge or sediment load caused by extensive settlement and land clearance may also have been involved. Meander patterns of the tidal streams changed considerably throughout the time period covered by the maps, demonstrating that the streams of this marsh are more dynamic than some others that have been widely reported in the literature. These differences in stream dynamics are probably related to the differences in sedimentological structure of the marshes. Between 1872 and 1956 the barrier spit eroded on its inside (shoreward) edge, probably in response to the construction of riprapping and houses along the spit, and the subsequent reduction of overwash and aeolian transport of sediment. Modification of the tidal inlet and adjacent marsh during the 1960s, including jetty construction, dredging, and filling of portions of the marsh surface, affected the marsh only locally. One tidal stream has been migrating rapidly apparently in response to compaction of peat by dredge spoils and consequent local disruption of the marsh hydrology. Except for this migration, erosion of the marsh edge occurred immediately after the inlet modifications; planimetric changes in the marsh and its streams have been minor since then.     

基于SOM和PSO的非监督地震相分析技术

地震相分析技术是储层预测的一种重要方法,可以用来描述有利沉积相带的分布规律.传统的地震相聚类分析方法对大数据的处理运算速度较慢,且容易陷入局部极小值,造成聚类分析的结构不准确.本文提出基于自组织神经网络(SOM)和粒子群优化方法(PSO)相结合的地震相分析技术,利用自组织神经网络能够保持原始地震数据的拓扑结构特性的特点,将大量冗余样本压缩为小样本数据,再通过粒子群的全局寻优能力改善K均值聚类的效果.理论模型和实际应用表明该方法能既有效实现数据压缩,又能提供较为准确的全局解,在地震相预测中兼顾计算效率和计算精度.     

Influence of lithostratigraphy on the retreat of an unconsolidated sedimentary coastal cliff (St. Lawrence estuary,eastern Canada)

This paper investigates the processes involved in unconsolidated cliff recession using LiDAR surveys (2005, 2010 and 2013) and aerial photographs (1964–2012) at Pointe‐au‐Bouleau, on the north shore of the St. Lawrence estuary, in eastern Canada. The high lithostratigraphic variability of the sediments allowed for the identification of stratigraphic and lithological variables that explain the evolution of coastal cliffs. Space‐for‐time substitution was also used to assess how lithostratigraphy controls the evolution of emerged glaciomarine coastal cliffs over decadal to centennial timescales. This case study presents new quantitative data that contributes to a better understanding of the role of sediment architecture, stratigraphy and geomorphology on coastal evolution. The methodological approach includes the development of a new conceptual model suitable for identifying erosion on cliff coastlines. The high spatial resolution methodology (<5 cm) used herein demonstrates the need for further research using LiDAR data in order to quantify the processes involved in the evolution of coastal cliffs. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Salt marsh surface survives true‐to‐scale simulated storm surges

A full‐scale controlled experiment was conducted on an excavated and re‐assembled coastal wetland surface, typical of floristically diverse northwest European saltmarsh. The experiment was undertaken with true‐to‐scale water depths and waves in a large wave flume, in order to assess the impact of storm surge conditions on marsh surface soils, initially with three different plant species and then when this marsh canopy had been mowed. The data presented suggests a high bio‐geomorphological resilience of salt marshes to vertical sediment removal, with less than 0.6 cm average vertical lowering in response to a sequence of simulated storm surge conditions. Both organic matter content and plant species exerted an important influence on both the variability and degree of soil surface stability, with surfaces covered by a flattened canopy of the salt marsh grass Puccinellia experiencing a lower and less variable elevation loss than those characterized by Elymus or Atriplex that exhibited considerable physical damage through stem folding and breakage. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modified sediments and subsurface hydrology in natural and recreated salt marshes and implications for delivery of ecosystem services

Recreation or restoration of salt marsh through the deliberate removal of flood defences (managed realignment or de‐embankment) is a common practice across Europe and the USA, with potential to enhance delivery of ecosystem services. However, recent research suggests that physical, chemical and ecological processes may be impaired in recreated sites as a result of the modified morphology, sediment structure and hydrology associated with both the restoration process and historic land use. This paper compares physical sediment properties and subsurface water levels recorded in paired natural and de‐embanked (recreated) salt marshes in SE England. Using a combination of statistical and time‐series modelling, significant differences between the natural and recreated marshes are identified. Sediment properties (bulk density, moisture content and organic content) within each marsh were statistically different and imply that de‐embanked sediments are compacted, which may affect subsurface water movement. Analysis of hydrological time series reveals that the de‐embanked salt marsh is characterized by a damped response to tidal flooding with elevated and less variable water levels. This, combined with analysis of hydrographs and hysteresis patterns over individual tidal cycles, suggests that fast, horizontal near‐surface flows enhanced by the relict land surface may play a greater role in drainage of the de‐embanked salt marsh. The importance of hydrological functioning in governing many important physical and biogeochemical processes in salt marshes suggests any modifications would have significant implications for the delivery of ecosystem services. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tide–surge interactions and their effects on total sea levels in Irish coastal waters

The research presented in this paper involves the application of the joint probability method to the estimation of extreme water levels resulting from astronomical tides and surge residuals and the investigation of the effects of tide–surge interactions on extreme water levels. The distribution of tide peaks was analysed from field records (<20 years) and a 46-year dataset of monthly maximum tidal amplitudes. Large surges were extracted from both field records and a numerical model hindcast covering the 48 largest storm events in the Irish Sea over the period 1959–2005. Extreme storm surges and tides were independently modelled using the generalised extreme value statistical model, and derived probability distributions were used to compute extreme water levels. An important, and novel, aspect of this research is an analysis of tide–surge interactions and their effects on total water level; where interactions exist, they lead to lower total water levels than in the case of independency. The degree of decrease varies with interaction strength, magnitude of surge peak at a particular phase of tide and the distribution of peaks over a tidal cycle. Therefore, including interactions in the computation of extreme levels may provide very useful information at the design stage of coastal protection systems.