近200年来湖北涨渡湖对江湖联通变化的环境响应

江湖联通状况对湖泊生态系统有着重要影响,但是由于缺乏长期的生态水文监测数据,湖泊系统对其响应的过程与机理仍缺乏认识.本研究选择长江中下游地区典型湖泊——涨渡湖,结合该湖一沉积短柱的²¹⁰Pb、¹³⁷Cs年代测试,通过高分辨率的多指标分析(硅藻、元素地球化学和粒度),揭示近200年来湖泊生态系统对该湖与长江之间联通关系改变的响应过程.与历史文献记载一致,古湖沼学记录揭示出该湖与长江的联通状况经历了3个阶段.1)江湖联通期(1954年以前):该湖与长江自然相通,江湖水体交换频繁,丰富的贫营养浮游种Cyclotella bodanica表明该湖长期处于低营养及湖泊水位相对较高的状态.2)江湖隔绝期(1954 2005年):随着湖坝的兴建,江湖联通关系被隔绝,湖泊换水周期变长,透明度降低,喜好扰动环境的Aulacoseria granulata大量生长.相应地,富营养硅藻的增加、高TOC含量以及较高的沉积物TP、TN浓度表明,该湖营养水平逐渐升高.特别是近20年来,较高含量的富营养硅藻种——C.meneghinena、A.alpigena、Nitzschia palea、Surirella minuta和地球化学记录,包括TOC含量和沉积物TP、TN浓度,表明该湖富营养化程度加剧.3)江湖季节性联通期(2005年后):硅藻以附生种、底栖种为主,但仍有一定含量的富营养化属种,且TOC含量以及沉积物TP、TN浓度仍然保持较高水平,表明富营养程度有所缓解.古湖沼学和历史记录都揭示了自该湖与长江无连通后其生态状况的快速退化、重新联通后生态状况有所好转.因此,在长江中下游洪泛平原区,江湖关系的重新联通将是减轻湖泊生态压力的有效手段.     

黄河下游南四湖地区黄河河道变迁的湖泊沉积响应

黄河下游地区湖泊演化多与黄河河道变迁密切相关,进行高分辨率的湖泊沉积环境的研究,可揭示历史时期黄河下游的河道变迁,本文以南四湖ＤＳ孔为例,探讨河道变迁的湖泊沉响应。     

A ∼300-year record of environmental changes in Lake Issyk-Kul,Central Asia,inferred from lipid biomarkers in sediments

We measured lipid biomarkers (n-alkanes [n-ALKs] and n-alkanoic acids [n-FAs]) and other components of organic matter (total organic carbon [TOC] and total nitrogen [TN]) in a sediment core from Lake Issyk-Kul, Central Asia, to infer environmental changes in and around the lake during the last ∼300 years. Stratigraphic shifts in lipid biomarkers, TOC and TN, indicate three distinct environmental stages in the lake over the past three centuries: (1) Stage I (1670s–1790s, 51–36 cm sediment depth) corresponds to a period of stable hydrology in the lake, reflected by relatively constant concentrations of n-ALKs and n-FAs and values of related indexes. The interval was a period of relatively low trophic state. Natural factors were the main controls on environmental changes in and around the lake. (2) Stage II (1800s–1970s, 35–15 cm sediment depth) was a period when human activities began to exert influence on the environment in and around the lake. Enhanced agricultural exploitation and greater regional rainfall resulted in delivery to the lake of more land-derived lipids. Logging activity around the lake altered the vegetation, as revealed by shifts in C₂₇/C₃₃ ratios and the average chain length (ACL₂₇₋₃₃). A significant decline in lake level caused by excessive water consumption impacted aquatic macrophytes, as revealed by a reduction in macrophyte indicators. Lower nutrient concentrations were inferred for this period. (3) Stage III (1980s–present, 14–0 cm sediment depth) corresponds to a period of accelerating eutrophication. Before year 2000, lake level declined steadily as a result of low rainfall (drought) and high evaporation, which exerted a strong influence on the lake condition. In addition, anthropogenic activities contributed to lake eutrophication. After 2000, the lake experienced a dramatic increase in trophic state, characterized by high algal productivity, as indicated by greater TN, short-chain n-ALKs and short-chain n-FAs. The change was probably caused by flourishing tourism around the lake. In summary, environmental changes in and around Lake Issyk-Kul during the past ∼300 years were originally driven largely by natural factors such as shifts in regional precipitation amount. Human activities (e.g. logging, agriculture, water extraction, and more recently, tourism) took on increasingly important roles during the last two centuries, affecting watershed vegetation, the lake primary producer community and lake trophic status. Changes recorded in the lake sediments over the last ∼300 years are in good agreement with historical records.     

Extreme hydrological events,palaeo-information and climate change

Abstract

Extreme flood events have been and continue to be one of the most important natural hazards responsible for deaths and economic losses. Extreme floods result in direct destructive effects during the time of the event, and they also may be followed by a related chain of indirect calamities such as famines and epidemics that produce additional damages and suffering. Extreme hydrological events that have occurred in the historical past may also occur in the future. Knowledge about magnitudes and recurrence frequencies of past extreme hydrological events in most regions are too short to adequately evaluate potential magnitudes and recurrence frequencies of extreme hydrological events. Stationary climate in which the mean and variance do not change over time is a basic underlying assumption of standard methodological procedures for estimating recurrence probabilities of extreme hydrological events. Palaeo-archives contained in river and lake sediments, fossil plant and animal matter, ice layers, and other natural archives show that the assumption of stationary climate is not valid when the time scale is extended beyond centuries and millennia. Records of past extreme floods that occurred long before the period of instrumentation can be reconstructed from the distribution of slackwater flood deposits or from derivation of water depths competent to transport the largest rocks found in flood deposited sediment. Palaeoflood records reconstructed from the Upper Mississippi and Lower Colorado River systems in the United States confirm nonstationary behaviour of the mean and variance in hydrological time series. These stratigraphic records have shown that even very modest climatic changes have resulted in very important changes in the magnitudes and recurrence frequencies of extreme floods. A close relationship was found between the palaeo-flood record of extreme floods in the Upper Mississippi River system and a palaeo-record of stable isotopes of oxygen and carbon preserved in speleothem calcite from a local cave. The relationship suggests that isotopic records elsewhere might be calibrated to provide insight about how future potential climate changes might impact extreme flood magnitudes and recurrence frequencies there. Atmospheric global circulation models (GCMs) mainly simulate average climatic conditions and are presently inadequate sources of information about how future climate changes might be represented at the extreme event scale. Palaeo-flood archives, however, provide basic information about how magnitudes and recurrence frequencies of extreme hydrological events responded to past climate changes and they also provide a reference base against which GCM simulations can be calibrated regionally and be better interpreted to decipher hydrological information at the extreme event scale.     

Hydrologic impact of regional climate change for the snow‐fed and glacier‐fed river basins in the Republic of Tajikistan: statistical downscaling of global climate model projections

Climate change due to global warming is a public concern in Central Asia. Because of specific orography and climate conditions, the republic of Tajikistan is considered as the main glacial center of Central Asia. In this study, regional climate change impacts in the two large basins of Tajikistan, Pyanj and Vaksh River basins located in the upstream sector of the Amu Darya River basin are analysed. A statistical regression method with model output statistics corrections using the ground observation data, Willmott archived dataset and GSMaP satellite driven dataset, was developed and applied to the basins to downscale the Global Climate Model Projections at a 0.1‐degree grid and to assess the regional climate change impacts at subbasin scale. It was found that snow and glacier melting are of fundamental importance for the state of the future water resources and flooding at the target basins since the air temperature had a clearly increasing trend toward the future. It was also found that the snowfall will decrease, but the rainfall will increase because of the gradual increase in the air temperature. Such changes may result in an increase in flash floods during the winter and the early spring, and in significant changes in the hydrological regime during a year in the future. Furthermore, the risks of floods in the target basins may be slightly increasing because of the increase in the frequencies and magnitudes of high daily precipitation and the increase in the rapid snowmelt with high air temperatures toward the future. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

近200 a来云南阳宗海摇蚊群落多样性及稳定性变化

云南省拥有丰富的生物多样性,其生态系统稳定性对于发挥生态系统服务功能十分重要,但近几十年以来的人类活动以及气候变化带来的干扰削弱了该区域的生态系统功能.本文以阳宗海为研究对象,探讨了1820s—2006年间人类活动背景下摇蚊群落多样性和稳定性的变化过程,并进一步探讨阳宗海摇蚊群落多样性与稳定性之间的关系.利用沉积物中的营养指标(总有机碳(TOC)含量、总氮(TN)含量和TOC/TN摩尔比)及摇蚊分别重建了湖泊营养变化及摇蚊群落物种丰富度、均匀度、相似度和稳定性(ar1),利用PCA第1轴代表摇蚊群落以检测突变点.研究发现摇蚊群落组成与湖泊营养变化有较好的一致性,二者在1990年左右发生突变,物种丰富度、均匀度和相似度指数分别在1950s、1990s初以及1970s初升高,说明摇蚊群落组成逐渐多样化,种属分布更加均匀.通过检测发现摇蚊群落稳定性在1960s初开始降低,比湖泊系统突变提前30 a左右.摇蚊群落的物种丰富度、均匀度以及稳定性指标伴随着湖泊外源营养物质输入比例增加而升高,群落多样性与稳定性之间的相关性分析表明群落稳定性随物种丰富度的升高而降低.     

滇西北地区高山湖泊沃迪错近两百年来环境变化及枝角类群落响应

区域增温和大气氮沉降作用已成为高山湖泊面临的重要环境胁迫,已有高山湖泊生物群落响应的长期模式研究主要集中于藻类而缺乏更高营养级生物(如浮游动物)的系统调查。本研究选择滇西北地区深水型的高山湖泊沃迪错开展沉积物调查,通过多指标分析(总氮、总磷、叶绿素a、氮稳定同位素等)并结合区域气候重建记录,识别近两百年来该湖泊及流域环境的变化历史,进一步利用枝角类群落指标(物种组成、生物量等)定量评价了湖泊生物群落的响应模式与驱动因子。结果表明,湖泊营养水平(如总氮浓度)和初级生产力(叶绿素a浓度等)在过去近两百年总体呈上升趋势。相关分析显示,大气氮沉降和流域外源输入是影响总氮上升的主要因素,同时区域增温和营养盐富集促进了湖泊初级生产力的不断上升。自1960s以来区域升温明显,湖泊营养水平和叶绿素a浓度呈现加速上升的趋势。钻孔中枝角类群落以浮游属种(Daphnia longispina等)为优势种,在1900AD以前D.longispina相对丰度较为稳定(40.83%±8.02%),之后出现下降趋势且在1948—1965年间明显下降,之后再次明显上升并成为主要优势种。排序分析显示,气温、叶绿素a和总...     

Environmental changes reflected by the lake sediments of the South Hongshan Lake, Northwest Tibet

The 1.07-m long lake core with 1 cm interval cutting, which was obtained by drilling in the South Hongshan Lake of Northwest Tibet, was dated by the 210Pb and 137Cs methods, and a 150-year consecutive lake sedimentary sequence (1840─1997) with 1.4 year resolution was obtained. Some environmental proxies, such as the total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN), ratio of TOC to TN (TOC/TN), trace chemistry elements (TCE), CaCO3, grain size, richness of ostracoda etc. showed that they are of well coincidence. These results implied that the environmental background varied from the cold-wet period in the late 19th century, to the warm-wet period from the end of the 19th century to the 1920s and to the warm-dry period since the 1920s. There were sub-variations since the 1920s: the cold-dry/warm-wet fluctuation from 1922 to 1960, the intensively warm-dry period since 1960 with a short cold-wet period in the mid-1970s to the end of the 1980s. The humid period from the mid-1970s to the end of the 1970s and the dry period beginning from the early 1980s were well documented by climatic data of the nearby weather station records while the grain size was well correlated to the annual precipitation. Compared with the records from Guliya ice core in the same area, the TOC proxy in the lake core indicating warm/cold conditions well corresponded to the ( 18O records representing temperature variations in the ice core. However, the proxies with dry/wet significance in the lake core were different from the variations of snow accumulation reflected by the ice core. It can be concluded that the chosen environmental proxies have clear environmental significance and the lake sediments can reflect climatic and environmental changes at high-resolution.     

Changes in carbon and nitrogen cycling in a floodplain lake over recent decades linked to littoral expansion,declining riverine influx,and eutrophication

This study aimed to understand changes in the biogeochemical processing of organic matter (OM) in response to multiple stressors (e.g., littoral area expansion, wastewater input, and hydrological regulation) in East Dongting Lake (Central China) over the past 60 years, using analyses of total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN), C/N ratios, δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N, and diatoms from 2 sediment cores collected from the littoral and central parts of the lake. OM mainly originated from phytoplankton and C₃ plant‐derived soil OM based on the ranges of C/N ratios (from 7 to 11) and δ¹³C (between ?27‰ and ?23‰). Littoral area expansion due to siltation caused an increasing influx of terrestrial soil OM in the 1980s and the 1990s, subsequently lowering δ¹³C values and rising C/N ratios in both sediment cores. Meanwhile, higher δ¹⁵N was linked to a high influx of isotopically heavy nitrate from urban and agricultural wastewaters. After 2000, slight decreases in TOC and TN in the littoral area were attributable to reducing inputs of external OM, likely linked to declining sediment influx from the upper reaches resulting from the Three Gorges Dam impoundment. Contrasting increases in TOC, TN, and C/N ratios in the central part indicated a high influx of terrestrial soil OM due to the declining distance from the shoreline with littoral area expansion. Declining δ¹⁵N values after 2000 indicated an increase in N₂‐fixing cyanobacteria with eutrophication. Changes in diatom assemblages in both the littoral and central zones reflected nutrient enrichment and hydrological alterations. These results indicate that littoral expansion, declining riverine influx, and anthropogenic nutrient inputs are potential driving forces for the biogeochemical processing of OM in floodplain lakes. This study provides sedimentary biogeochemical clues for tracking past limnological conditions of floodplain lakes that are subjected to increasing disturbances from hydrological regulation and eutrophication.     

Characteristics of annual laminae gray level variations in a stalagmite from Shihua Cave, Beijing and its climatic significance (II)

The annual laminae gray level variations in the stalagmite TS9501 of Shihua Cave, Beijing are studied in detail. The environmental factors influencing the laminae gray level are also analyzed. The following conditions may be necessary to the study on the lamina gray level. A) The seasonal differences of climate in the studied area are strong. B) The cave has a rapid and simple hydrological connection with the surface, such that the gray level variation is great; therefore, climatic changes can be more clearly recorded in a stalagmite. C) No water from other sources due to lateral flow adds to the seepage over the cave. D) There are more organic impurities than inorganic ones, whose content changes distinctly with time in the sample. By comparison with the modern instrumental climate records, it was found that the gray level of laminae is mainly related to the air temperature, especially the summer mean temperature. Therefore, the gray level can be used as a proxy of the air temperature. The variation of the lamina gray level also represents the oscillation of Indian summer monsoon as identified in the modern climate records. The variability of the temperature in Beijing area over the last 1 ka is reconstructed. The results show that there are several cold periods corresponding to historical records. An important phenomenon is noticed that the climatic pattern before about 1400AD is different from that after about 1400AD. In Beijing area, before about 1400AD, low amplitude and high frequency temperature oscillations dominated the signal. The climate pattern is warm-dry and cold-wet. After about 1400AD, both the temperature and rainfall varied synchronously, temperature oscillated strongly and the Little Ice Age occurred. The climate pattern is cold-dry and warm-wet. This transition of the climate pattern is also observed in other worldwide paleoclimatic records, demonstrating that there was a global climate event at about 1400AD.     

Changes to flood peaks of a mountain river: implications for analysis of the 2013 flood in the Upper Bow River,Canada

The mountain headwater Bow River at Banff, Alberta, Canada, was subject to a large flood in June 2013, over which considerable debate has ensued regarding its probability of occurrence. It is therefore instructive to consider what information long‐term streamflow discharge records provide about environmental change in the Upper Bow River basin above Banff. Though protected as part of Banff National Park, since 1885, the basin has experienced considerable climate and land cover changes, each of which has the potential to impact observations, and hence the interpretations of flood probability. The Bow River at Banff hydrometric station is one of Canada's longest‐operating reference hydrological basin network stations and so has great value for assessing changes in flow regime over time. Furthermore, the station measures a river that provides an extremely important water supply for Calgary and irrigation district downstream and so is of great interest for assessing regional water security. These records were examined for changes in several flood attributes and to determine whether flow changes may have been related to landscape change within the basin as caused by forest fires, conversion from grasslands to forest with fire suppression, and regional climate variations and/or trends. Floods in the Upper Bow River are generated by both snowmelt and rain‐on‐snow (ROS) events, the latter type which include flood events generated by spatially and temporally large storms such as occurred in 2013. The two types of floods also have different frequency characteristics. Snowmelt and ROS flood attributes were not correlated significantly with any climate index or with burned area except that snowmelt event duration correlated negatively to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. While there is a significant negative trend in all floods over the past 100 years, when separated based on generating process, neither snowmelt floods nor large ROS floods associated with mesoscale storms show any trends over time. Despite extensive changes to the landscape of the basin and in within the climate system, the flood regime remains unchanged, something identified at smaller scales in the region but never at larger scales. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Snow and climate trends and their impact on seasonal runoff and hydrological drought types in selected mountain catchments in Central Europe

ABSTRACT

This study investigates changes in seasonal runoff and low flows related to changes in snow and climate variables in mountainous catchments in Central Europe. The period 1966–2012 was used to assess trends in climate and streamflow characteristics using a modified Mann–Kendall test. Droughts were classified into nine classes according to key snow and climate drivers. The results showed an increase in air temperature, decrease in snowfall fraction and snow depth, and changes in precipitation. This resulted in increased winter runoff and decreased late spring runoff due to earlier snowmelt, especially at elevations from 1000 to 1500 m a.s.l. Most of the hydrological droughts were connected to either low air temperatures and precipitation during winter or high winter air temperatures which caused below-average snow storages. Our findings show that, besides precipitation and air temperature, snow plays an important role in summer streamflow and drought occurrence in selected mountainous catchments.     

全球变暖导致洪水风险增加——长江洪水前景分析

近期在很多地方洪水越来越频繁且破坏性更大.20世纪90年代以来全球大洪水造成社会经济财产巨大损失,30次大洪水每次总损失额均超过10×10⁸美元.1990-1998年的9a时间的大洪水爆发的次数比1950-1985年期间Ma大洪水次数还要多.近年来中国大陆也遭受了若干重大洪水灾害(包括1996和1998年两次大的财产损失).与气候变率和变化相关的洪水灾害和易爆发程度的显著增加,这是当前最紧迫的问题.随着气温升高大气中持水量也增加,因此大规模强度的降水的可能性也增大.己观测到高而集中的大降水事件而且这种趋势在未来气候变暖条件下可能增加,大降水事件的增加是洪灾增加的必然条件.当然也有一些其它的非气象因素加剧洪灾的发生,比如土地利用变化(森林砍伐、城市化)导致土壤持水能力下降,径流系数增加;此外,人类占据了洪泛区,可能导致洪水损失增大.另外物质财富在洪泛区的积聚也导致了洪灾损失增加.毫无疑问,由于人类活动和气候的共同作用,未来洪水风险在很多地方可能增加.洪水易爆发程度被认为是暴露系数和调节能力的函数,而且在许多地方所有这些变量都可能增加.而随着暴露系数比人类调节能力增加快,因此洪水易爆发程度增大.然而,要完全从径流变化中区分气候因素导致的强烈自然变率还是直接的人为环境变化是很困难的.由于使用不同的假定情景和不同的气候模型,得到的未来环境的预测结果差异也很大.IPCC第三次评估报告中广泛讨论了气候变化与洪水之间的关系.IPCC第三次评估报告警告说,在东亚季风区非常湿润的季风季节出现的可能性非常大,进而会导致相应地区洪水风险增加.本文总结了迄今为此可收集到的有关长江洪水的资料.利用一些案例来分析研究未来假定情景下气候对水文的影响,并对东亚地区的模拟结果进行了讨论.     

Geochemical evidence of human impacts on deep Lake Fuxian,southwest China

Human activities in Lake Fuxian and its catchment have caused environmental changes that are preserved in the geochemical records of lake sediments. Human activities responsible for the environmental changes include agriculture, mining, industrial development, and fishery management. To elucidate human impacts on this deep water body during the past several decades, two short sediment cores were collected from the lake, dated by ¹³⁷Cs, and analyzed for several geochemical variables (total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN), δ¹³C and heavy metals). The multi-proxy geochemical and isotopic evidence can be used to divide the limnological record into a 3-part history. Although increasing inputs of chromium (Cr) had begun as early as the 1950s, human activities, including heavy metal contamination, apparently had little effect on lacustrine production, as δ¹³C, TOC, TN and TOC/TN were relatively constant until the 1980s. Mining and industry have generated large amounts of heavy metal elements such as Zn, Pb and Cd that have been deposited into the lake since the 1980s, increasing to their highest concentrations over the last decades. Zn, Pb and Cd probably were released by industrial processes such as the manufacture of cement. Cr concentrations increased at site FB, but declined at site FZ, most likely due to the closer proximity of site FB to the source of metal production. From the middle of the 1980s, the decreased δ¹³C, and increased TOC, TN and TOC/TN suggest a broad change in lake ecology. In the 1980s, a new fish species was introduced into Lake Fuxian and fish yields increased quickly, which may mark the beginning of a change in ecosystem structure.     

雁荡山湖泊沉积物记录的中国东部季风区小冰期以来气候干湿变化

中国东部季风区过去千年降水变化特征已有大量研究并取得重要进展,但多数研究集中在中国北方和中部地区,南方地区重建记录相对较少.本文对浙江雁荡山雁湖沉积物的总有机碳、色度和粒度等多指标进行分析,重点探讨小冰期以来研究区域的降水变化,结果显示:1)1400-1600 AD,湖区集水发育,研究区气候偏湿润;2)1600-165...     

The relative impact of climate change and urban expansion on peak flows: a case study in central Belgium

An essential part of hydrological research focuses on hydrological extremes, such as river peak flows and associated floods, because of their large impact on economy, environment, and human life. These extremes can be affected by potential future environmental change, including global climate change and land cover change. In this paper, the relative impact of both climate change and urban expansion on the peak flows and flood extent is investigated for a small‐scale suburban catchment in Belgium. A rainfall‐runoff model was coupled to a hydrodynamic model in order to simulate the present‐day and future river streamflow. The coupled model was calibrated based on a series of measured water depths and, after model validation, fed with different climate change and urban expansion scenarios in order to evaluate the relative impact of both driving factors on the peak flows and flood extent. The three climate change scenarios that were used (dry, wet winter, wet summer) were based on a statistical downscaling of 58 different RCM and GCM scenario runs. The urban expansion scenarios were based on three different urban growth rates (low, medium, high urban expansion) that were set up by means of an extrapolation of the observed trend of urban expansion. The results suggest that possible future climate change is the main source of uncertainty affecting changes in peak flow and flood extent. The urban expansion scenarios show a more consistent trend. The potential damage related to a flood is, however, mainly influenced by land cover changes that occur in the floodplain. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of the impact of climate change on the flow regime of the Han River basin using indicators of hydrologic alteration

Most natural disasters are caused by water‐/climate‐related hazards, such as floods, droughts, typhoons, and landslides. In the last few years, great attention has been paid to climate change, and especially the impact of climate change on water resources and the natural disasters that have been an important issue in many countries. As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall, the number of water‐related disasters is expected to rise. In this regard, this study intends to analyse the changes in extreme weather events and the associated flow regime in both the past and the future. Given trend analysis, spatially coherent and statistically significant changes in the extreme events of temperature and rainfall were identified. A weather generator based on the non‐stationary Markov chain model was applied to produce a daily climate change scenario for the Han River basin for a period of 2001–2090. The weather generator mainly utilizes the climate change SRES A2 scenario driven by input from the regional climate model. Following this, the SLURP model, which is a semi‐distributed hydrological model, was applied to produce a long‐term daily runoff ensemble series. Finally, the indicator of hydrologic alteration was applied to carry out a quantitative analysis and assessment of the impact of climate change on runoff, the river flow regime, and the aquatic ecosystem. It was found that the runoff is expected to decrease in May and July, while no significant changes occur in June. In comparison with historical evidence, the runoff is expected to increase from August to April. A remarkable increase, which is about 40%, in runoff was identified in September. The amount of the minimum discharge over various durations tended to increase when compared to the present hydrological condition. A detailed comparison for discharge and its associated characteristics was discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

长江流域历史水旱灾害分析

长江流域有丰富和长期的水旱灾害史料,最早的水灾和旱灾记载有2000余年的历史,经过系统整理和分析的历史水旱灾害资料有1000余年的旱涝型年表和500余年的旱涝分布图集.在以上资料基础上,对长江流域历史水旱灾害的地域分布特性和时间变化规律进行了初步分析:500余年历史水旱灾害的地域分布显示,流域水旱灾害总体特征是水灾重于旱灾,各级水旱灾害频率的地域分布极不均匀,存在着显著的灾害多发和少发地带,它们与自然地理环境、水系特征、气候条件和社会经济条件等因素有关;1000余年旱涝型年表分析表明,长江流域洪涝和干旱频次在时间上的非均匀分布并非完全随机,表现出多种时间尺度的年际变化特征,其中主要表现为约100a上下的大干湿气候期变化及40a左右的小旱涝期振动.     

Parameterizing a hydrological model using a short-term observational dataset to study runoff generation processes and reproduce recent trends in streamflow at a remote mountainous permafrost basin

Recent decades have seen a change in the runoff characteristics of the Suntar River basin in the mountainous, permafrost, hard-to-reach region of Eastern Siberia. This study aims to investigate and simulate runoff formation processes, including the factors driving recent changes in hydrological response of the Suntar River, based on short-term historical observations of a range of hydrological, climatological and landscape measurements conducted in 1957–1959. The hydrograph model is applied as it has the advantage of using observed physical properties of landscapes as its parameters. The developed parametrization of the goltsy landscape (rocky-talus) is verified by comparison of the results of simulations of variable states of snow and frozen ground with observations carried out in 1957–1959. Continuous simulations of streamflow on a daily time step are conducted for the period 1957–2012 in the Suntar River (area 7680 km², altitude 828–2794 m) with mean and median values of Nash–Sutcliff criteria reaching 0.58 and 0.67, respectively. The results of simulations have shown that the largest component of runoff (about 70%) is produced in the high-altitude area which comprises only 44% of the Suntar River basin area. The simulated streamflow reproduces the patterns of recently observed changes, including the increase in low flows, suggesting that the increase in the proportion of liquid precipitation in autumn due to air temperature rise is an important factor in driving streamflow changes in the region. The data presented are unique for the vast mountainous parts of North-Eastern Eurasia which play an important role in the global climate system. The results indicate that parameterizing a hydrological model based on observations allows the model to be used in studying the response of river basins to climate change with greater confidence.     

气候变暖下太湖极端洪水的归因探讨

全球增温引起的降水变化是否引起极端洪水的增加,发生在不同气候背景的极端洪水事件可提供不同参照系;而不同驱动因子下气候、水文数值模拟为认识洪水发生和归因提供了有效途径.本文结合机理数值模拟和随机统计模拟两种途径,针对1990s和1880s的太湖流域特大洪水,通过GCM气候模拟驱动的流域水文模拟和不确定性的阈值模拟,分析19世纪末和20世纪末极端洪水的发生强度和频率的变化,从而论证极端洪水发生的风险系数.结果表明,1990s的极端洪水流量(0.1%的极端洪水流量(Q0.1%)为2929~3601 m³/s,0.5%的极端洪水流量(Q0.5%)为1842~1893 m³/s)比工业革命前大气温室气体状况下(Q0.1%为2069~3119 m³/s,Q0.5%为1436~1561 m³/s)显著增大.与19世纪末相比,由于太湖流域人类活动改变的流域下垫面在1999年特大洪水中引起最大增量占35%,本文模拟和分析的20世纪末气候下的洪水最大增量占60%.去除人类活动影响的下垫面变化,估计特大洪水风险的最大增量为25%,因此认为20世纪末气候变化引起的太湖极端洪水风险在增加;这将为认识与全球增温相关联的洪水灾害预测预警提供科学依据.