Vegetation and hydraulic-morphological interactions at the individual plant, patch and channel scale

Interactions between vegetation, flow and sediment are a key ingredient for the development of vegetated islands in highly dynamic, fluvial alpine ecosystems such as the Tagliamento River, north-east Italy. There has been substantial research on factors influencing the establishment of vegetation and feedback mechanisms between vegetation, hydraulic, and geomorphological processes in such environments. This has yielded the development of conceptual models identifying different trajectories of vegetation and landform development from bare gravel to established floodplain forest. Nevertheless, some of the finer-scale processes underpinning such interactions are not well understood and parameterisation concepts that augment our knowledge from process understanding to quantified data and prediction models are not available until now. This paper identifies mechanisms and parameters of vegetation-flow interaction at the individual scale that are reflected at a patch or even at the channel scale. These mechanisms are reviewed from a multi-disciplinary perspective and concepts and analogies are proposed that provide ideas to progress research towards the development of predictive vegetation-flow models. Such models must incorporate both hydraulic and ecological components and this is demonstrated for a simplified force-bending model of Salicaceae seedlings. The development of such models demands advances in the individual disciplines of hydraulics, morphology, plant ecology and biomechanics, which offers many possibilities for multidisciplinary research between these disciplines.     

Upscaling site‐scale ecohydraulic models to inform salmonid population‐level life cycle modeling and restoration actions – Lessons from the Columbia River Basin

With high‐resolution topography and imagery in fluvial environments, the potential to quantify physical fish habitat at the reach scale has never been better. Increased availability of hydraulic, temperature and food availability data and models have given rise to a host of species and life stage specific ecohydraulic fish habitat models ranging from simple, empirical habitat suitability curve driven models, to fuzzy inference systems to fully mechanistic bioenergetic models. However, few examples exist where such information has been upscaled appropriately to evaluate entire fish populations. We present a framework for applying such ecohydraulic models from over 905 sites in 12 sub‐watersheds of the Columbia River Basin (USA), to assess status and trends in anadromous salmon populations. We automated the simulation of computational engines to drive the hydraulics, and subsequent ecohydraulic models using cloud computing for over 2075 visits from 2011 to 2015 at 905 sites. We also characterize each site's geomorphic reach type, habitat condition, geomorphic unit assemblage, primary production potential and thermal regime. We then independently produce drainage network‐scale models to estimate these same parameters from coarser, remotely sensed data available across entire populations within the Columbia River Basin. These variables give us a basis for imputation of reach‐scale capacity estimates across drainage networks. Combining capacity estimates with survival estimates from mark–recapture monitoring allows a more robust quantification of capacity for freshwater life stages (i.e. adult spawning, juvenile rearing) of the anadromous life cycle. We use these data to drive life cycle models of populations, which not only include the freshwater life stages but also the marine and migration life stages through the hydropower system. More fundamentally, we can begin to look at more realistic, spatially explicit, tributary habitat restoration scenarios to examine whether the enormous financial investment on such restoration actions can help recover these populations or prevent their extinction. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

THE SENSITIVITY OF TWO DISTRIBUTED NON-POINT SOURCE POLLUTION MODELS TO THE SPATIAL ARRANGEMENT OF THE LANDSCAPE

Distributed hydrological models are becoming increasingly complex with respect to spatial phenomena, and with the widespread availability of spatial data from GIS, this trend is likely to increase. In all such models the spatial arrangement of phenomena, such as soil properties and land-use categories is fundamental, and so the arrangement should have an influence on the model output. Testing for this influence we term spatial sensitivity analysis. Here, we report on the spatial sensitivity of two widely used models, AgNPS (agricultural non-point source pollution model) and ANSWERS (areal nonpoint source watershed environment response simulation). The input spatial data were subjected to spatially random mixing to varying degrees, such that the organized landscape became disorganized. The chemical discharge from AgNPS, and the sediment and water discharge from ANSWERS, are examined. In both cases most outputs exhibited little or no sensitivity to the spatial distribution of most input data. Only infiltration-related inputs produced large variations, but these changes were not in the sense that might have been predicted. Although the analytical methods used require further refinement, there must now be some doubt as to the validity of the models, and whether they repay their computational complexity. Furthermore, it is felt that spatial sensitivity analysis should become a fundamental part of the verification of all such models. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the Coupling of Geodynamic and Resistivity Models: A Progress Report and the Way Forward

Magnetotelluric (MT) studies represent the structure of crust and mantle in terms of conductivity anomalies, while geodynamic modelling predicts the deformation and evolution of crust and mantle subject to plate tectonic processes. Here, we review the first attempts to link MT models with geodynamic models. An integration of MT with geodynamic modelling requires the use of relationships between conductivity and rheological parameters such as viscosity and melt fraction, which are provided by laboratory measurements of rock properties. Owing to present limitations in our understanding of these relationships, and in interpreting the trade-off between scale and magnitude of conductivity anomalies from MT inversions, most studies linking MT and geodynamic models are qualitative rather than providing hard constraints. Some recent examples attempt a more quantitative comparison, such as a study from the Himalayan continental collision zone, where rheological parameters have been calculated from a resistivity model and compared to predictions from geodynamic modelling. We conclude by demonstrating the potential in combining MT results and geodynamic modelling with examples that directly use MT results as constraints within geodynamic models of ore bodies and studies of an active volcano-tectonic rift.     

Key principles of constructing probabilistic statistical ionosphere models for the radiowave propagation problems

It is demonstrated that it is required to create probabilistic statistical models of the ionosphere for calculating radio propagation in a wide frequency range. This, in fact, presents a new type of ionospheric modeling. These models are classified into pure statistical and deterministic-stochastic. We describe the key principles of building such models, present some examples of their construction, and discuss some difficulties arising from them.     

Fuzzy logic model approaches to daily pan evaporation estimation in western Turkey / Estimation de l’évaporation journalière du bac dans l’Ouest de la Turquie par des modèles à base de logique floue

Abstract

Abstract Evaporation is one of the fundamental elements in the hydrological cycle, which affects the yield of river basins, the capacity of reservoirs, the consumptive use of water by crops and the yield of underground supplies. In general, there are two approaches in the evaporation estimation, namely, direct and indirect. The indirect methods such as the Penman and Priestley-Taylor methods are based on meteorological variables, whereas the direct methods include the class A pan evaporation measurement as well as others such as class GGI-3000 pan and class U pan. The major difficulty in using a class A pan for the direct measurements arises because of the subsequent application of coefficients based on the measurements from a small tank to large bodies of open water. Such difficulties can be accommodated by fuzzy logic reasoning and models as alternative approaches to classical evaporation estimation formulations were applied to Lake Egirdir in the western part of Turkey. This study has three objectives: to develop fuzzy models for daily pan evaporation estimation from measured meteorological data, to compare the fuzzy models with the widely-used Penman method, and finally to evaluate the potential of fuzzy models in such applications. Among the measured meteorological variables used to implement the models of daily pan evaporation prediction are the daily observations of air and water temperatures, sunshine hours, solar radiation, air pressure, relative humidity and wind speed. Comparison of the classical and fuzzy logic models shows a better agreement between the fuzzy model estimations and measurements of daily pan evaporation than the Penman method.     

Flood forecasting with a watershed model: a new method of parameter updating

Abstract

Flood forecasting is of prime importance when it comes to reducing the possible number of lives lost to storm-induced floods. Because rainfall-runoff models are far from being perfect, hydrologists need to continuously update outputs from the rainfall-runoff model they use, in order to adapt to the actual emergency situation. This paper introduces a new updating procedure that can be combined with conceptual rainfall-runoff models for flood forecasting purposes. Conceptual models are highly nonlinear and cannot easily accommodate theoretically optimal methods such as Kalman filtering. Most methods developed so far mainly update the states of the system, i.e. the contents of the reservoirs involved in the rainfall-runoff model. The new parameter updating method proves to be superior to a standard error correction method on four watersheds whose floods can cause damage to the greater Paris area. Moreover, further developments of the approach are possible, especially along the idea of combining parameter updating with assimilation of additional data such as soil moisture data from field measurements and/or from remote sensing.     

Optimal spherical spline filters for the analysis and comparison of regional-scale tomographic models

Advances in seismic tomography lead to increasingly detailed models of the Earth that are often represented on irregular and resolution-adaptive grids. To take full advantage of such models, their assessment must progress beyond a purely visual analysis, and tools must become available for their quantitative comparison.We present a method for the spectral analysis and comparison of multi-scale tomographic models. The method is applicable to irregular grids on the sphere, and is more efficient that filters based on spherical-harmonic expansions or convolution integrals. The combination of a spherical spline representation of tomographic information with Abel-Poisson scaling enables the construction of targetted spatial filters by solving a nonlinear inverse problem for appropriate weighting coefficients. This can be readily achieved with a simulated annealing approach for the limited number of weights. Once suitable filters have been generated they can be employed to address issues such as the patterns of small-scale heterogeneity, transitional structures and comparison of independent models from a region.We illustrate our method in a series of applications where we use different bandpass filters to detect differences in the distribution of small-scale heterogeneity beneath central and eastern Europe, and to compare several recent tomographic models of the Australian region.     

Accuracy assessment of ocean tide loading computations for precise geodetic observations

The increasing resolution of ground based gravity measurements (e.g. by superconducting gravimeters) as well as satellite based gravity field studies allows to study very small signals, globally as well as local. On the other hand, this requires the correction of such signals to uncover others. To study the Earth’s deep interior and the on-going dynamic processes requires the correction of disturbing signals, and one of these signals is related to ocean tidal loading. Although new ocean tide models are being derived from current satellite missions, there are still uncertainties.In this paper we present an intercomparison ocean tide models to test their fit to world-wide observations. Therefore, three TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) satellite derived models (CSR3.0, FES95.2 and TPXO.2) beside the classical SCHW80 model were selected for an accuracy assessment study. The selected models have been subjected to an intercomparison test, tide gauge validation test and comparison to 59 tidal gravity stations.The intercomparison test shows a good agreement between the T/P-based models for the open ocean and remarkable disagreement between the selected models in the coastal regions indicating that such models are still problematic in these regions. The tide gauge validation shows that the T/P derived models fit tide gauges better than SCHW80, with a better fit for the semidiurnal constituents than for the diurnal constituents. Comparing the gravimetric ocean-tide loading computed from the selected models with the residuals from a set of 59 tidal gravity stations shows that there is an improvement of the T/P derived models with respect to the Schwiderski model, especially in M2. However, this improvement is not as significant as the result of the comparison with the pelagic data. The procedure developed for the comparison of T/P derived models with SCHW80 is presented. The results provide not only information and improvement with regard to SCHW80, but also information about the properties of the new models. It is intended to continue this work applying the very recent models to see how they perform compared to this study.With this study we provide boundary conditions for the improvement of new ocean-tide models in order to benefit from the gravity measurements now possible regarding the evaluation of Earth structures and dynamic processes.     

Accuracy assessment of ocean tide loading computations for precise geodetic observations

The increasing resolution of ground based gravity measurements (e.g. by superconducting gravimeters) as well as satellite based gravity field studies allows to study very small signals, globally as well as local. On the other hand, this requires the correction of such signals to uncover others. To study the Earth’s deep interior and the on-going dynamic processes requires the correction of disturbing signals, and one of these signals is related to ocean tidal loading. Although new ocean tide models are being derived from current satellite missions, there are still uncertainties.In this paper we present an intercomparison ocean tide models to test their fit to world-wide observations. Therefore, three TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) satellite derived models (CSR3.0, FES95.2 and TPXO.2) beside the classical SCHW80 model were selected for an accuracy assessment study. The selected models have been subjected to an intercomparison test, tide gauge validation test and comparison to 59 tidal gravity stations.The intercomparison test shows a good agreement between the T/P-based models for the open ocean and remarkable disagreement between the selected models in the coastal regions indicating that such models are still problematic in these regions. The tide gauge validation shows that the T/P derived models fit tide gauges better than SCHW80, with a better fit for the semidiurnal constituents than for the diurnal constituents. Comparing the gravimetric ocean-tide loading computed from the selected models with the residuals from a set of 59 tidal gravity stations shows that there is an improvement of the T/P derived models with respect to the Schwiderski model, especially in M2. However, this improvement is not as significant as the result of the comparison with the pelagic data. The procedure developed for the comparison of T/P derived models with SCHW80 is presented. The results provide not only information and improvement with regard to SCHW80, but also information about the properties of the new models. It is intended to continue this work applying the very recent models to see how they perform compared to this study.With this study we provide boundary conditions for the improvement of new ocean-tide models in order to benefit from the gravity measurements now possible regarding the evaluation of Earth structures and dynamic processes.     

River flow forecasting using wavelet and cross‐wavelet transform models

In this study, short‐term river flood forecasting models based on wavelet and cross‐wavelet constituent components were developed and evaluated for forecasting daily stream flows with lead times equal to 1, 3, and 7 days. These wavelet and cross‐wavelet models were compared with artificial neural network models and simple perseverance models. This was done using data from the Skrwa Prawa River watershed in Poland. Numerical analysis was performed on daily maximum stream flow data from the Parzen station and on meteorological data from the Plock weather station in Poland. Data from 1951 to 1979 was used to train the models while data from 1980 to 1983 was used to test the models. The study showed that forecasting models based on wavelet and cross‐wavelet constituent components can be used with great accuracy as a stand‐alone forecasting method for 1 and 3 days lead time river flood forecasting, assuming that there are no significant trends in the amplitude for the same Julian day year‐to‐year, and that there is a relatively stable phase shift between the flow and meteorological time series. It was also shown that forecasting models based on wavelet and cross‐wavelet constituent components for forecasting river floods are not accurate for longer lead time forecasting such as 7 days, with the artificial neural network models providing more accurate results. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Consequences of hyperconcentrated flow for process‐based soil erosion modelling on the Chinese Loess Plateau

High sediment concentrations in runoff are a characteristic feature of the Chinese Loess Plateau, and are probably caused by factors such as the occurrence of erodible materials on steep slopes, the characteristics of the loess and the harsh climate that results in low plant cover. When sediment concentration increases, fluid density increases, viscosity increases and settling velocity decreases. These effects become increasingly important with increasing concentration and can result in flow behaviour that is quite different from that of clear water flow. Although the net effect of these changes on the flow is not always apparent, erosion models that deal with high sediment concentrations should consider such effects and could include corrections for some of these effects. A case study in a small catchment on the Loess Plateau indicated that sediment concentrations were considerable, and literature data suggested that for such sediment concentrations, corrections for settling velocity, fluid density and viscosity are needed. Furthermore, a number of corrections are necessary to be able to compare field measurements with results of soil erosion models: sediment volume should be subtracted from runoff volume and a density correction is needed to use data from a pressure transducer. For flumes that were used to measure discharge from smaller areas inside the catchment, the measured water level should be corrected by subtracting the sediment level in the flume from the water level, while the sediment volume should also be subtracted from the discharge. Finally, measured concentration should be corrected to give concentration expressed as grams per litre of clear water, since soil erosion models express sediment concentration in this way. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Anisotropic viscoelastic models with singular memory

The physical background of singular memory models and in particular the Cole–Cole model is discussed. Three models of anisotropic linear viscoelasticity with frequency-dependent stiffness coefficients are considered. The models are constructed in such a way that anisotropic properties are separated from anelastic effects. Two of these models represent finite-speed wave propagation with singularities at the wavefronts (the exponential relaxation model) and without singularities at the wavefronts (the Cole–Cole model), while a third model called the fractional model is related to the constant Q with unbounded propagation speed. The Cole–Cole and fractional models belong to the class of singular memory models studied earlier because of their applications in polymer rheology, poroelasticity, poroacoustics, seismic wave propagation and other applications. Well-posedness of initial boundary value problems with mixed Dirichlet–Neumann boundary conditions is established for the three models. Regularity properties of the three models are examined.     

Modelling Seismic Waves Around Underground Openings in Fractured Rock

—?The potential for large excavation-induced seismic events may be recognised, even if the timing of an event may be inherently unpredictable. In this case, modelling the wave propagation from a potential event could allow the dynamic motions around an excavation to be projected, and for areas of danger to be anticipated. However, the above and other potential applications require accurate models of wave interaction with the openings, as well as with the fractured rock which surrounds such excavations. This paper considers real recorded waveforms and how well these waveforms are modelled by explicit mechanical models of the source, the medium and the excavation. Models of experiments at three different scales of the problem are presented: small and large amplitude waveforms recorded around a deep-level mining tunnel in a synthetic rockburst experiment; waveforms from laboratory experiments of waves through plates of steel representing fractures; waveforms from active pulses in an acoustic emission experiment in a small volume of fractured rock at the surface of an underground excavation. The results show that elastic wave propagation around an excavation was a first approximation for small amplitude waves, but was less successful for modelling large amplitude waves and more fractured rock. Fractures in the models were represented explicitly with displacement discontinuities. Waveforms through known fracture geometries were particularly well-reproduced, and indicate the importance of fracture stiffness, the in situ stress state, and stress-dependence of the fractures in such models. Overall, the models are sufficiently successful at representing recorded behaviour, to be encouraging for the goal of representing accurate wave motions around excavations.     

A framework for validation of seismic response analyses using seismometer array recordings

A framework for the validation of computational models used to predict seismic response based on observations from seismometer arrays is presented. The framework explicitly accounts for the epistemic uncertainty related to the unknown characteristics of the ‘site’ (i.e. the problem under consideration) and constitutive model parameters. A mathematical framework which makes use of multiple prediction–observation pairs is used to improve the statistical significance of inferences regarding the accuracy and precision of the computational methodology and constitutive model. The benefits of such a formal validation framework include: (i) development of consistent methods for determination of constitutive model parameters; (ii) rigorous, objective, and unbiased assessment of the validity of various constitutive models and computational methodologies for various problem types and ground motion intensities; and (iii) an improved understanding of the uncertainties in computational model assumptions, constitutive models and their parameters, relative to other seismic response uncertainties such as ground motion variability. Details regarding the implementation of such a framework to achieve the aforementioned benefits are also addressed.     

Modeling axisymmetric flow and transport

Unmodified versions of common computer programs such as MODFLOW, MT3DMS, and SEAWAT that use Cartesian geometry can accurately simulate axially symmetric ground water flow and solute transport. Axisymmetric flow and transport are simulated by adjusting several input parameters to account for the increase in flow area with radial distance from the injection or extraction well. Logarithmic weighting of interblock transmissivity, a standard option in MODFLOW, can be used for axisymmetric models to represent the linear change in hydraulic conductance within a single finite-difference cell. Results from three test problems (ground water extraction, an aquifer push-pull test, and upconing of saline water into an extraction well) show good agreement with analytical solutions or with results from other numerical models designed specifically to simulate the axisymmetric geometry. Axisymmetric models are not commonly used but can offer an efficient alternative to full three-dimensional models, provided the assumption of axial symmetry can be justified. For the upconing problem, the axisymmetric model was more than 1000 times faster than an equivalent three-dimensional model. Computational gains with the axisymmetric models may be useful for quickly determining appropriate levels of grid resolution for three-dimensional models and for estimating aquifer parameters from field tests.     

Generating MODFLOW grids from boundary representation solid models

Complex stratigraphy can be difficult to simulate in MODFLOW models. MODFLOW uses a structured grid that requires that each grid layer be continuous throughout the model domain. This makes it difficult to explicitly represent common features such as pinchouts and embedded seams in a MODFLOW model. In this paper, we describe a method for automatically generating MODFLOW-compatible grids from boundary-representation solid models. Solid models are data structures developed originally for computer-aided design applications that define the geometry of three-dimensional objects. Solid models can be used to represent arbitrarily complex stratigraphy. The elevations defined by the solids are then extracted from the solids in a manner that preserves the continuous-layer requirement imposed by MODFLOW. Two basic approaches are described: The first method adjusts the MODFLOW grid dimensions (layer elevations) to fit the solid model boundaries, and the second method creates a regular MODFLOW grid and adjusts the material properties to match the changes in stratigraphy. One of the main benefits of using solid models to define stratigraphy for MODFLOW models is that it provides a grid-independent definition of the layer elevations that can be used to immediately re-create the MODFLOW grid geometry after any change to the grid resolution.     

One technique for refining the global Earth gravity models

The results of the theoretical and experimental research on the technique for refining the global Earth geopotential models such as EGM2008 in the continental regions are presented. The discussed technique is based on the high-resolution satellite data for the Earth’s surface topography which enables the allowance for the fine structure of the Earth’s gravitational field without the additional gravimetry data. The experimental studies are conducted by the example of the new GGMplus global gravity model of the Earth with a resolution about 0.5 km, which is obtained by expanding the EGM2008 model to degree 2190 with the corrections for the topograohy calculated from the SRTM data. The GGMplus and EGM2008 models are compared with the regional geoid models in 21 regions of North America, Australia, Africa, and Europe. The obtained estimates largely support the possibility of refining the global geopotential models such as EGM2008 by the procedure implemented in GGMplus, particularly in the regions with relatively high elevation difference.     

Accuracy of nonlinear static procedures for the seismic assessment of shear critical structures

The nonlinear behavior of reinforced concrete (RC) members represents a key issue in the seismic performance assessment of structures. Many structures constructed in the 1980s or earlier were designed based on force limits; thus they often exhibit brittle failure modes, strength and stiffness degradation, and severe pinching effects. Field surveys and experimental evidence have demonstrated that such inelastic responses affect the global behavior of RC structural systems. Efforts have been made to consider the degrading stiffness and strength in the simplified nonlinear static procedures commonly adopted by practitioners. This paper investigates the accuracy of such procedures for the seismic performance assessment of RC structural systems. Refined finite element models of a shear critical bridge bent and a flexure‐critical bridge pier are used as reference models. The numerical models are validated against experimental results and used to evaluate the inelastic dynamic response of the structures subjected to earthquake ground motions with increasing amplitude. The maximum response from the refined numerical models is compared against the results from the simplified static procedures, namely modified capacity spectrum method and coefficient method in FEMA‐440. The accuracy of the static procedures in estimating the displacement demand of a flexure‐critical system and shear‐critical system is discussed in detail. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The perturbation of alternating geomagnetic fields by discontinuities with high conductivity contrasts

The perturbation of alternating geomagnetic fields by conductivity discontinuities is considered. A numerical method is used to solve the two-dimensional induction problem. Models in which the conductivity contrast between conductive regions is great, such as between oceanic and continental regions, are considered. The perturbation field distributions for models with higher conductivity contrasts are compared with lower conductivity contrast models using a method recently developed by Jones (1972). Total field solutions are obtained for several models by using a very large grid as well as a folding-in technique. Results from the two methods for the various models are compared. It is found that the folding-in technique offers an alternative method for handling higher conductivity contrasts.