Regional frequency analysis of daily rainfall extremes using L-moments approach

Daily extreme precipitation values are among environmental events with the most disastrous consequences for human society. Information on the magnitudes and frequencies of extreme precipitations is essential for sustainable water resources management, planning for weather-related emergencies, and design of hydraulic structures. In the present study, regional frequency analysis of maximum daily rainfalls was investigated for Golestan province located in the northeastern Iran. This study aimed to find appropriate regional frequency distributions for maximum daily rainfalls and predict the return values of extreme rainfall events (design rainfall depths) for the future. L-moment regionalization procedures coupled with an index rainfall method were applied to maximum rainfall records of 47 stations across the study area. Due to complex geographic and hydro-climatological characteristics of the region, an important research issue focused on breaking down the large area into homogeneous and coherent sub-regions. The study area was divided into five homogeneous regions, based on the cluster analysis of site characteristics and tests for the regional homogeneity. The goodness-of-fit results indicated that the best fitting distribution is different for individual homogeneous regions. The difference may be a result of the distinctive climatic and geographic conditions. The estimated regional quantiles and their accuracy measures produced by Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the estimation uncertainty as measured by the RMSE values and 90% error bounds is relatively low when return periods are less than 100 years. But, for higher return periods, rainfall estimates should be treated with caution. More station years, either from longer records or more stations in the regions, would be required for rainfall estimates above T=100 years. It was found from the analyses that, the index rainfall (at-site average maximum rainfall) can be estimated reasonably well as a function of mean annual precipitation in Golestan province. Index rainfalls combined with the regional growth curves, can be used to estimate design rainfalls at ungauged sites. Overall, it was found that cluster analysis together with the L-moments based regional frequency analysis technique could be applied successfully in deriving design rainfall estimates for northeastern Iran. The approach utilized in this study and the findings are of great scientific and practical merit, particularly for the purpose of planning for weather-related emergencies and design of hydraulic engineering structures.     

On the rainfall asymmetry and distribution in tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal using TMPA and GPM rainfall products

In the present study, we have used TRMM multi-satellite precipitation analysis (TMPA) 3B42 and global precipitation mission (GPM): IMERG “precipitation Cal” products to identify and quantify the asymmetry and distribution of rainfall in tropical cyclones formed over Bay of Bengal (BoB). For the period 2010–2013, TMPA products have been made use of and for the period 2014–2017, GPM–IMERG products are used to study the aforementioned features. Overall, 17 cyclones covering 75 events/days ranging from depression to very severe cyclonic stage of the system have been analysed. Our analysis revealed some interesting features on asymmetry, direction of maximum rain-receiving zones, relation of T-number with maximum and total rainfall in rain-receiving areas. The study reveals the direction of rainfall zone is mostly towards west and southwest directions of the storm centre in BoB. This point gains importance in the context of earlier reports, where it is mentioned that the direction of maximum rainfall is in east. The study also infers that the maximum rainfall and total rainfall need not be dependent on the intensity (indicated by T-number). We also attempted to classify the rain-receiving zones, based on both the rainfall-rate window and area covered in each window of rainfall, and a criterion has been proposed. The distribution of rainfall is classified, as sharply falling, slowly falling and nearly constant.     

中国日降雨空间变化对雨水径流源头总量控制的影响

为研究中国不同区域的降雨特征对径流总量控制效果的影响,利用186个气象站近30年的日降雨量资料,通过空间分析与统计计算,得到不同年径流总量控制率所对应的设计降雨量以及年均控制降雨量;结合年径流总量控制率与年均控制降雨量的关系将中国区域分为9种类型。结果表明:中国设计降雨量地域变化明显,广东、四川、广西、河北和河南等省的标准差为全国平均水平的1.5~3倍,且随年径流总量控制率的提升而增加,源头径流控制效果差异明显;南部地区径流控制效果多为"高量低率";"低量低率"区位于甘肃、宁夏等地,面积占比为9.44%,其降雨特征不适合发挥源头控制设施的效果;而最适宜发挥源头控制作用的"高量高率"区位于西南部分地区,面积占比为3.80%。     

温州群发性坡面泥石流临界雨量研究

温州地处浙江东南沿海,降雨充沛。台风等极端气候灾害引起的强降雨次数繁多,并可能引发地区周边泥石流等地质灾害。收集相关地区、时段的气象、水文资料,并对研究区降雨数据进行处理,在野外实地调查、遥感解译的基础上,根据研究区地质灾害调查结果,总结群发性坡面泥石流特征,分析其形成的地质环境条件。针对致灾因子降雨量与温州地区群发性泥石流灾害的因果关系,获取坡面泥石流发生周期内的各时段降雨量,并利用相关性分析确定最大1h、3h雨强为研究变量,在二维坐标平面上投影近百个案例点,拟合得出临界雨量方程,并根据泥石流发生与否划分区域计算超越概率和误报概率,得出温州地区泥石流爆发前期雨强满足"两倍关系"的经验结论,寻求解决温州地区实际泥石流地质灾害预警问题的可行性。     

Spatial variability of aridity oyer northern India

Spatial variability of aridity over northern India (north of 20°N) is studied by examining variations in the arid area. Area with an objectively determined summer monsoon rainfall (June to September total) of less than 500 mm is identified as arid area. The summer monsoon rainfall of 212 rain-gauges from 212 districts of the region for the period 1871–1984 are used in the analysis. An interesting feature of the arid area series is that it shows decreasing trend from beginning of the present century. The summer monsoon rainfall fluctuations over five subjectively divided zones over northern India are examined to understand the association between rainfall and the arid area variations. The rainfall series for northwest India shows a significant increasing trend and that for northeast India a significant decreasing trend from the beginning of this century. Rainfall fluctuations over the remaining zones can be considered intermediate stages of a systematic spatial change in the rainfall pattern. This suggested that the recent decreasing trend in the arid area is due to a westward shift in the monsoon rainfall activities. From correlation analyses it is inferred that perhaps the recent decreasing trend in the arid area and increasing trend in the monsoon rainfall over northwest India are associated with a warming trend of the northern hemisphere.     

Coherent rainfall zones: Case study for Karnataka

Generally average rainfall over meteorological subdivisions is used for assessment of the variability of monsoon rainfall. It is shown here that variations of seasonal rainfall over the meteorological subdivisions of interior Karnataka are not coherent. A methodology for delineating coherent rainfall zones is developed in this paper and applied to derive such zones for the State of Karnataka.     

基于降雨响应的黄土丘陵区滑坡危险性预测研究——以宝鸡市麟游县为例

极端降雨易造成群发滑坡灾害,难以作为单体预测.为预测评估黄土丘陵区不同降雨强度诱发滑坡灾害危险性,论文在区域滑坡灾害特征研究的基础上,分析降雨强度特征及滑坡分布特征.以岭南滑坡为代表分析降雨诱发黄土-丘陵区滑坡的形成机制,介绍了无限斜坡模型原理、参数选取,利用GIS空间建模与分析功能,定量完成了无降雨、25 mm、50...     

降雨对滑坡稳定性影响过程分析

通过对滑坡土条的受力分析进行改进,建立起能考虑滑带内存在任意孔隙水压分布情况下的稳定性计算公式。结合Lumb入渗理论和太沙基一维固结理论得到了滑坡在降雨期间的极限稳定性计算方法,该方法能够同时考虑降雨入渗导致土体重度和滑带内孔隙水压力变化。利用上述结果,提出了某些深层滑坡触发的一种机理,并可根据常用的土质参数比较容易得到滑坡在降雨期间稳定性演化过程。通过对某滑坡分析得到,降雨导致滑体重量增加而降低滑坡稳定性小于孔隙水压增加对稳定性的影响;超孔隙水压力的存在大幅提高了剩余下滑力值。     

基于推理公式的山洪预警雨量计算方法研究

基于水科院推理公式,从山洪雨量预警需求出发,解除原公式在部分汇流中对流域面积分配曲线的矩形概化,经反演得出各典型时段临界雨量计算式;同时采用等流时方法,有效解决了计算式中最大部分汇流面积的定量问题。研究提出的预警雨量计算方法,物理概念清晰,易于理解和掌握,计算便捷,且无需水文资料,可作为现行山洪预警雨量分析计算的一种新方法。     

适用于斜坡降雨入渗分析的修正Green-Ampt模型

降雨入渗分析是预测降雨诱发滑坡的关键因素之一。Green-Ampt模型原理简单、使用方便,在浅层滑坡的降雨入渗分析中有很大的应用潜力,但该方法主要适用于初始含水率为均匀分布的情况。基于这一不足,推导了初始含水率为非均匀分布条件下降雨入渗深度和时间的关系,并给出了基于Runge-Kutta原理的数值解法。当初始含水率为均匀分布时,提出的方法可简化为文献中已有的Green-Ampt模型。当初始含水率为非均匀分布时, Richards方程预测所得的孔隙水压力分布图中土体饱和区和未受降雨影响的非饱和区之间存在一个较窄的过渡段,由新模型计算所得的湿润锋穿过这一过渡段,且靠近饱和部区的底部。总体而言,新方法计算所得的孔隙水压力分布与Richards方程求解结果类似。     

近年来山西中部地区水雨情及旱情旱灾分析

分析了山西中部地区20世纪70年代以后的降雨、流量、蒸发量的时空分布。山西中部地区降雨偏少,年际丰枯变化大,年内分布不均。70年代以来径流在逐渐减少,2000年以后径流的减少更为明显。90年代以后蒸发量增大。分析了90年代以来该地区发生的农业受旱、粮食旱灾情况,降雨、流量、蒸发量是影响旱情旱灾发生的重要因素。     

Occurrence of heavy rainfall around the confluence line in monsoon disturbances and its importance in causing floods

It is well known that heavy rainfall occurs in the southwestern sector of the monsoon depressions due to strong convergence in that sector. By examining the rainfall distribution associated with the monsoon disturbances (lows and depressions) in one of the central Indian river basins, ‘Godavari’, the author found that when the disturbance-centre is away from the basin, heavy rainfall may also occur in the basin area close to the confluence line and cause severe floods in the river. The confluence line is the zone of convergence between the northeasterlies to the west of the disturbance centre and the monsoon westerlies. This study further reveals the importance of the position and movement of the confluence line with respect to the basin, on which the intensity and the raising period of the resulting flood depend.     

基于FLAC3D平台的边坡非饱和降雨入渗分析

为研究降雨入渗条件下三维边坡渗流场的变化过程,在全面研究FLAC3D软件渗流分析模块功能及算法的基础上,通过编写FISH函数完善了FLAC3D软件的非饱和渗流计算功能。基于降雨入渗机制的分析,编写了降雨入渗及停雨出渗边界的FISH函数,实现边坡三维降雨入渗过程的模拟。通过降雨条件下算例边坡的饱和非饱和渗流场变化过程的数值计算,研究了降雨入渗引起的边坡暂态饱和区变化过程,并与已有研究成果进行对比分析,从而验证了自编FISH函数实现边坡三维非饱和渗流计算结果的正确性。研究成果表明,文中提出的边坡三维非饱和降雨入渗分析是可行的,同时也为三维边坡非饱和渗流场的研究提供了一条有益的途径。     

位移-应力协同分析在新近纪软岩质滑坡监测中的应用——以陕西宝鸡市北坡滑坡为例

强降雨可诱发新近纪软岩质滑坡滑移变形。1955年至今,降雨在陕西宝鸡诱发超过十起大型滑坡灾害。2011年9月19日,宝鸡市区72 h内的降雨量达到332 mm,北坡金鼎寺、簸箕山与高家崖滑坡出现裂缝,威胁市区居民安全。为分析滑坡的变形机制与降雨触发的滑体内地下水位的波动关系,2012—2015年,开展了降雨量、地下水位、孔隙水压力、滑坡应力与位移等物理量的实时监测,统计分析了它们的频率、活动强度及累积变化规律,提出了滑坡的位移扩展模型。研究显示:(1)地下水的活动会影响新近纪软岩质滑坡的变形,但降雨量、地下水位、孔隙水压力、滑坡体应力与位移等物理量变化机制有差异,地下水位、孔隙水压力呈周期性变化,滑坡体的应力、位移的变化具有累积效应;(2)宝鸡市北坡滑坡运动变形具有蠕变、快速滑移两个阶段。降雨会触发的滑坡体各物理量出现加速变化,地下水位波动幅度为0.27~1m,孔隙水压力的变化幅度为10kPa,滑体浅层的水平应力变化幅度为5.6kPa;(3)在判断降雨能否诱发滑坡快速滑移过程中,既需分析滑体应力、位移变化的累积效应,又需分析新近纪软岩质滑带的摩擦破坏机制。     

滇西大理至瑞丽铁路龙陵段主要的地质灾害类型 及其发育规律

大理—瑞丽铁路龙陵段地处云南高原滇西峡谷区,处于怒江与伊洛瓦底江两大水系分水岭地带。地貌复杂、峡谷深切,新构造运动十分强烈, 地震活动频繁。该区的降雨主要集中在5～10 月份, 降雨强度大且集中。复杂的地质环境及降雨、人类活动等外部因素使该地区成为崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害多发区,常冲毁稻田、山林,发生毁坏桥梁公路、毁坏房屋及人员伤亡的事故。阐述了大理—瑞丽铁路龙陵段主要地质灾害的分布、形成条件及发育规律, 为大理—瑞丽铁路工程规划建设和测区经济社会发展提供基础地质资料和科学依据。     

滇西大理至瑞丽铁路龙陵段主要的地质灾害类型及其发育规律

大理—瑞丽铁路龙陵段地处云南高原滇西峡谷区,处于怒江与伊洛瓦底江两大水系分水岭地带。地貌复杂、峡谷深切,新构造运动十分强烈,地震活动频繁。该区的降雨主要集中在5～10月份,降雨强度大且集中。复杂的地质环境及降雨、人类活动等外部因素使该地区成为崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害多发区,常冲毁稻田、山林,发生毁坏桥梁公路、毁坏房屋及人员伤亡的事故。阐述了大理—瑞丽铁路龙陵段主要地质灾害的分布、形成条件及发育规律,为大理—瑞丽铁路工程规划建设和测区经济社会发展提供基础地质资料和科学依据。     

Groundwater potentiality mapping of hard-rock terrain in arid regions using geospatial modelling: example from Wadi Feiran basin,South Sinai,Egypt

Identifying a good site for groundwater exploitation in hard-rock terrains is a challenging task. In Sinai, Egypt, groundwater is the only source of water for local inhabitants. Interpretation of satellite data for delineation of lithological units and weathered zones, and for mapping of lineament density and their trends, provides a valuable aid for the location of groundwater promising areas. Complex deformational histories of the wide range of lithological formations add to the difficulty. Groundwater prospect mapping is a systematic approach that considers the major controlling factors which influence the aquifer and quality of groundwater. The presented study aims to delineate, identify, model and map groundwater potential zones in arid South Sinai using remote sensing data and a geographic information system (GIS) to prepare various hydromorphogeological thematic maps such as maps of slope, drainage density, lithology, landforms, structural lineaments, rainfall intensity and plan curvature. The controlling-factor thematic maps are each allocated a fixed score and weight, computed by using a linear equation approach. Furthermore, each weighted thematic map is statistically computed to yield a groundwater potential zone map of the study area. The groundwater potential zones thus obtained were divided into five categories (very poor, poor, moderate, good and very good) and were validated using the relation between the zone and the spatial distribution of productive wells and of previous geophysical investigations from a literature review. The results show the groundwater potential zones in the study area, and create awareness for better planning and management of groundwater resources.     

基于相关分析的雨量站选择及洪水预报方法

在分析历史降雨资料的基础上,建立流域内各雨量站点雨量与流域平均面雨量的相关关系。结合流域水文站分布图选出与流域面雨量相关性高且有区域代表性的雨量站作为遥测系统的关键测站,保证其稳定运行。利用定点定面关系分析方法,由流域内关键测站的时段雨量推求流域时段面雨量,并带入洪水预报模型进行洪水预报。该方法不依赖流域内全部测站的降雨信息,可有效解决流域内雨量站缺测或数据错误时的洪水预报问题。该方法可为无资料或资料短缺地区及新建水库因资金限制只能建设少量测站时的洪水预报提供参考。     

岷江双线特大桥高边坡稳定性研究

成兰铁路岷江双线特大桥高边坡位于岷江地震带,该区域属于高烈度地震强震频发区,降雨量大且集中,不良地质分布广,在复杂环境因素的影响下,极其容易引起边坡滑坡。在研究现场工程地质情况的基础上,利用FLAC3D有限差分软件,建立三维边坡模型,进行天然、降雨、地震及降雨-地震耦合工况下的稳定性分析。研究结果表明,天然工况下安全系数为1.318,边坡处于稳定状态;降雨工况下,随降雨量的增加,雨水入渗和加载作用增强,位移高值区逐步扩大并逐渐向坡脚延伸,25 mm/d、35 mm/d及45 mm/d降雨条件下的安全系数分别为1.001、0.932、0.912;地震工况下边坡不稳定,坡腰中上部位移与加速度最大,为易滑坡区域;降雨-地震耦合工况下,坡腰中上部极其不稳定,且随降雨量增加,滑体位移及加速度均增大。     

水致黄土深层滑坡灾变机理

在黄土地区,雨后观测和人工降雨试验均表明地表水在黄土中的入渗深度有限,并不影响黄土深部的含水率。因此水分入渗是否直接造成斜坡深层滑移颇受争议。本文通过黄土地区自然降雨条件下的现场观测,发现地表水在黄土中的入渗沿垂直剖面可以划分为3个带:即活动带,稳定带和饱和带。活动带受大气降雨和蒸发的影响,为瞬态流,向下则转化为稳定流;稳定带含水率不变,但仍有稳定的水分运移至地下水位。地下水以下降泉的形式排泄。在入渗和排泄条件长期不变的情况下,地下水位可维持动态平衡。若地表入渗量加大,如灌溉或管道漏水等,稳定带含水率升高,并伴随地下水位抬升,以达到新的平衡,此水文动态转化过程会诱发滑坡。以延炼滑坡为例,分析了长期地表水间歇性滴渗条件下,边坡的水力动态变化过程,及其对边坡稳定性的影响。观测及分析结果表明,黄土深层滑坡主要与地表水入渗导致的地下水位抬升有关,由于其过程缓慢,容易被忽视而致灾。