The 73-day periodicity of the flare index during the current solar cycle 22

The flare index of the current solar cycle 22 is analysed to detect periodicities. Power spectral analysis of the time series of solar flare index data reveals a periodicity around 73 and 53 days. We find that a periodicity of 73 days was in operation from November 1988 to the end of December 1991. We also find that when the 73-day periodicity or the 154-day periodicity is in operation the flare index is well correlated with the relative sunspot numbers.     

Periodicities in Solar Flare Index for Cycles 21 – 23 Revisited

The periodic analyses of solar flare data have been carried out by different authors for about three decades. Controversial results appear as depending on the analysis techniques and investigated time periods. Considering that different authors applied different methods to different data sets, it seems necessary to reanalyze the periodicity of solar flare index with a unified method. In this study we used two new methods to investigate the periodic behavior of solar flare index data, first for individual cycles 21, 22 and 23, and then for all of them. We used i) the multi taper method with red- and white-noise approximations, and ii) the Morlet wavelet transform for periodicity analysis. Apart from the solar rotation periodicity of about 27 days which is of obvious significance and is found in all examined cycles with at least a 90% significance level, we obtained the following prominent periods: 152 days for cycle 21, 73 days for cycle 22, and 62 days for cycle 23. Finally, we compare our results with the ones previously found. We emphasize the fact that a lesser number of periodicities is found in the range of low frequencies (long periods) while the higher frequencies show a greater number of periodicities. This result might be useful for better predictions of the solar cycles.     

太阳活动与变化的150天周期研究进展

太阳活动，除了涵盖太阳表面磁场驱动的活动现象外，还包括光度、自转和对称性等物理因素的长期演化。研究它们变化的周期对深入理解其产生机制有着重要的指导意义。从1984年Rieger等人首次发现耀斑的产生率存在约154d周期始，人们在很多现象中都找到了它的踪影，150余d的周期成了继11yr太阳活动周和27d太阳自转周后最引人注目的新周期。重点综述了在耀斑、黑子等活动领域内对150d周期现象研究的现状，介绍了有关它成因的研究进展，指出了尚待解决的问题及进一步努力的方向。     

Intermediate-Term Periodicities in Soft X-ray Flare Index During Solar Cycles 21, 22 and 23

We have analyzed the intermediate-term periodicities in soft X-ray flare index (FI_SXR) during solar cycles 21, 22 and 23. Power-spectral analysis of daily FI_SXR reveals a significant period of 161 days in cycle 21 which is absent during cycles 22 and 23. We have found that in cycle 22 periodicities of 74 and 83 days are in operation. A 123-day periodicity has been found to be statistically significant during part of the current solar cycle 23. The existence of these periodicities has been discussed in the light of earlier results.     

North and south major flare periodicities during solar cycle 20

The periodicities of monthly values of major flare numbers and comprehensive major flare index (CFI) have been studied for the 20^th solar cycle. It has been proved that the periodicity 152 days exists also in the southern (S) solar hemisphere. This periodicity has been previously defined in the earlier cycles to be a northern (N) periodicity, but it has migrated to the southern hemisphere (S) during the cycles 19, 20, 21. For the whole solar disk data, it has been found that the periodicity at 78.43^d is much remarkable than its first harmonic at 156.86^d. We have also detected very strong periodicity at 548.96^d in N-hemisphere while a strong one has been found near 100^d in both solar hemispheres. The detected periodicities at 80±2^d and 101-⁺1^d seems to have a global origin . The 87.1^d periodicity is present and it is suggested that it is related to 88^d periodicity attributed to the tidal influence of the planet Mercury on sunspots. Both hemispheres present their periodicities independently.     

Short-Term Periodicities in Sunspot Activity and Flare Index Data during Solar Cycle 23

The short-term periodicities in sunspot numbers, sunspot areas, and flare index data are investigated in detail using the Date Compensated Discrete Fourier Transform (DCDFT) for the full disk of the Sun separately over the rising, the maximum, and the declining portions of solar cycle 23 (1996 – 2006). While sunspot numbers and areas show several significant periodicities in a wide range between 23.1 and 36.4 days, the flare index data do not exhibit any significant periodicity. The earlier conclusion of Pap, Tobiska, and Bouwer (1990, Solar Phys. 129, 165) and Kane (2003, J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys. 65, 1169), that the 27-day periodicity is more pronounced in the declining portion of a solar cycle than in the rising and maximum ones, seems to be true for sunspot numbers and sunspot area data analyzed here during solar cycle 23.     

Different Periodicities in the Sunspot Area and the Occurrence of Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections in Solar Cycle 23 – 24

In order to investigate the relationship between magnetic-flux emergence, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), we study the periodicity in the time series of these quantities. It has been known that solar flares, sunspot area, and photospheric magnetic flux have a dominant periodicity of about 155 days, which is confined to a part of the phase of the solar cycle. These periodicities occur at different phases of the solar cycle during successive phases. We present a time-series analysis of sunspot area, flare and CME occurrence during Cycle 23 and the rising phase of Cycle 24 from 1996 to 2011. We find that the flux emergence, represented by sunspot area, has multiple periodicities. Flares and CMEs, however, do not occur with the same period as the flux emergence. Using the results of this study, we discuss the possible activity sources producing emerging flux.     

On Short-Term Periodicity of the Solar Radius Measurements

The aim of the present study is to investigate the short-term periodicity in the solar radius measurements and to compare with the short periods in sunspot numbers, sunspot areas and flare index data. The spectral analysis of data sets covering a time interval from 26 February 2000 to 26 October 2007 during Solar Cycle 23 were made by using the Date Compensated Discrete Fourier Transform (DCDFT). The power spectrum of solar radius data corrected for the seeing effect gives an evident peak at 25.7 days with the amplitude of 0.034 arcsec, which is slightly different from the peaks of 26.2 and 26.7 days produced by sunspot numbers and sunspot areas data, respectively. Besides, the main peak of 25.7 days detected in the power spectrum of solar radius data is in agreement with the period of 25.5 days, suggested to be the fundamental period of the Sun by Bai and Sturrock (in Nature 350, 141, 1991).     

Confirmation of the 25.5-day fundamental period of the Sun using the north-south asymmetry of the flare index

Short-term periodicities of solar activity were studied. To perform the study, a north-south asymmetry time series was constructed by using the northern and the southern hemisphere flare index values for solar cycle 22. The statistical significance of this time series was calculated. It indicates that in most of cases the asymmetry is highly significant during cycle 22. Power spectral analysis of this time series reveals a periodicity around 25.5 days, which was announced before as a fundamental period of solar activity (Bai and Sturrock, 1991). To investigate the time agreement between the two hemispheres, the phase distribution was studied and a phase shift of about 0.5 was found. An activity trend from the north to the south was found.     

Cosmic-ray Periodicity at 170 Days

Power-spectral analysis of cosmic-ray indices (CRI) data for the years 1989–1991 shows a 170-day periodicity of cosmic rays. The periodicity is related to a strong magnetic field. Power-spectral analysis of the long-term periodicity (11 years) of the CRI data for the years 1953–1997 shows that the period 1989–1991 is a unique one in the sense of the discussed pronounced periodicity. The 170-day periodicity of cosmic rays was interpreted in the base of six solar rotations (1 SR = 28.3-day periodicity of 10.7 cm solar radio flux) and may be connected to the instability of the solar core.     

Further Evidence Suggestive of a Solar Influence on Nuclear Decay Rates

Recent analyses of nuclear decay data show evidence of variations suggestive of a solar influence. Analyses of datasets acquired at the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and at the Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB) both show evidence of an annual periodicity and of periodicities with sidereal frequencies in the neighborhood of 12.25 year^?1 (at a significance level that we have estimated to be 10^?17). It is notable that this implied rotation rate is lower than that attributed to the solar radiative zone, suggestive of a slowly rotating solar core. This leads us to hypothesize that there may be an ??inner tachocline?? separating the core from the radiative zone, analogous to the ??outer tachocline?? that separates the radiative zone from the convection zone. The Rieger periodicity (which has a period of about 154 days, corresponding to a frequency of 2.37 year^?1) may be attributed to an r-mode oscillation with spherical-harmonic indices l=3,m=1, located in the outer tachocline. This suggests that we may test the hypothesis of a solar influence on nuclear decay rates by searching BNL and PTB data for evidence of a ??Rieger-like?? r-mode oscillation, with l=3,m=1, in the inner tachocline. The appropriate search band for such an oscillation is estimated to be 2.00??C?2.28 year^?1. We find, in both datasets, strong evidence of a periodicity at 2.11 year^?1. We estimate that the probability of obtaining these results by chance is 10^?12.     

The 51-day periodicity in cycle 22

On the basis of analysis of the occurrence rate of major flares (X-ray class ≥M3.0), we present evidence that the 51-day periodicity was in operation during the interval from May 4, 1991 to November 15, 1992. This periodicity is noted to be two times 25.5 days, which has been proposed as the fundamental period of the Sun.     

Evaluation of the short-term periodicities in the flare index between the years 1966–2002

The short-term periodicities of the flare index are investigated in detail using Fourier and wavelet transforms for the full disc and for the northern and the southern hemispheres of the Sun separately over the epoch of almost 4 cycles (1966–2002). The most pronounced power peaks were found by the Fourier transform to be present at 25.6, 27.0, 30.2, and 33.8 days. The wavelet transform results show that the occurrence of periodicities of flare index power is highly intermittent in time. A comparison of the results of the Fourier transform and the time-period wavelet transform of the flare index time series has clarified the importance of different periodicities, whether they are or are not the harmonics of the basic ones, as well as the temporal location of their occurrence. We found that the modulation of the flare index due to the 27-day solar rotation is more pronounced during the declining portion of solar cycle than during the rising portion.     

The 27-Day and 22-Year Cycles in Solar and Geomagnetic Activity

We study the evolution of the longitudinal asymmetry in solar activity through the wave packet technique applied to the period domain of 25 – 31 days (centered at the 27-day solar rotation period) for the sunspot number and geomagnetic aa index. We observe the occurrence of alternating smaller and larger amplitudes of the 11-year cycle, resulting in a 22-year periodicity in the 27-day signal. The evolution of the 22-year cycle shows a change of regime around the year 1912 when the 22-year period disappears from the sunspot number series and appears in the aa index. Other changes, such as a change in the correlation between solar and geomagnetic activity, took place at the same time. Splitting the 27-day frequency domain of aa index shows an 11-year cycle for higher frequencies and a pure22-year cycle for lower frequencies, which we attribute to higher latitude coronal holes. This evidence is particularly clear after 1940, which is another benchmark in the evolution of the aa index. We discuss briefly the mechanisms that could account for the observed features of the 22-year cycle evolution.     

X-Ray bursts from solar flares behind the limb

From the UCSD OSO-7 X-ray experiment data, we have identified 54 X-ray bursts with 5.1–6.6 keV flux greater than 10³ photon cm^?2 keV^?1 which were not accompanied by visible Hα flare on the solar disk. By studying OSO-5 X-ray spectroheliograms, Hα activity at the limb and the emergence and disappearance of sunspot groups at the limb, we found 17 active centers as likely seats of the X-ray bursts beyond the limb. We present the analysis of 37 X-ray bursts and their physical parameters. We compare our results with those published by Datlowe et al. (1974a, b) for disk events. The distributions of maximum temperature, maximum emission measure, and characteristic cooling time of the over-the-limb events do not significantly differ from those of disk events. We show that of conduction and radiation, the former is the dominant cooling mechanism for the hot flare plasma. Since the disk and over-the-limb bursts are similar, we conclude that the scale height for X-ray emission in the 5–10 keV range is large and is consistent with that of Catalano and Van Allen (1973), 11000 km, for primarily 1–3 keV emission. Twenty-five or about 2/3 of the over-the-limb events had a non-thermal component. The distribution of peak 20 keV flux is not significantly different from that of disk events. However, the spectral index at the time of maximum flux is significantly different for events over the limb and for events near the center of the disk; the spectral index for over-the-limb events is larger by about δγ = 3/4. If hard X-ray emission came only from localized sources low in the chromosphere we would expect that hard X-ray emission, would be occulted over the limb; on the contrary, the observation show that the fraction of soft X-ray bursts which have a nonthermal component is the same on and off of the disk. Thus hard X-ray emission over extended regions is indicated.     

The Solar Connection of Enhanced Heavy Ion Charge States in the Interplanetary Medium: Implications for the Flux-Rope Structure of CMEs

We investigated a set of 54 interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) events whose solar sources are very close to the disk center (within ±?15^° from the central meridian). The ICMEs consisted of 23 magnetic-cloud (MC) events and 31 non-MC events. Our analyses suggest that the MC and non-MC ICMEs have more or less the same eruption characteristics at the Sun in terms of soft X-ray flares and CMEs. Both types have significant enhancements in ion charge states, although the non-MC structures have slightly lower levels of enhancement. The overall duration of charge-state enhancement is also considerably smaller than that in MCs as derived from solar wind plasma and magnetic signatures. We find very good correlation between the Fe and O charge-state measurements and the flare properties such as soft X-ray flare intensity and flare temperature for both MCs and non-MCs. These observations suggest that both MC and non-MC ICMEs are likely to have a flux-rope structure and the unfavorable observational geometry may be responsible for the appearance of non-MC structures at 1 AU. We do not find any evidence for an active region expansion resulting in ICMEs lacking a flux-rope structure because the mechanism of producing high charge states and the flux-rope structure at the Sun is the same for MC and non-MC events.     

A review of stellar flares and their characteristics

We review the flaring activity of stars across the HR-diagram. Brightenings have been reported along the entire Main Sequence and in many stars off the Main Sequence. Some stars are decidedly young, others are in advanced stages of stellar evolution. Flares are common on stars with outer convection zones and outbursts have been reported also on other types of stars, although confirmations are needed for some of them.Analyses of flare occurrence sometimes find flares to be randomly distributed in time, and sometimes indicate a tendency for flares to come in groups. Preferred active longitudes have been suggested. Recent solar results, where the occurrence rate for flares is found to exhibit a periodicity of 152 days, suggest that stellar flare data should be reanalyzed over long time baselines to see if the present confusing situation can be resolved.The radiation from stellar flares is dominated by continuum emission and about equal amounts of energy have been recorded in the optical, UV, and X-ray regions of the spectrum. In solar flares strong continuum emission is rarely recorded and a large collection of bright emission lines takes prominence. Small flares occur more frequently than large ones and the latter have longer time-scales. Flare energies can exceed 10³⁷ erg. The most productive flare stars are those where the convective envelopes occupy large volumes. Slow stellar rotation rates are believed to reduce the level when the star has been braked significantly from its young rotation rate.     

Multifractality as a Measure of Complexity in Solar Flare Activity

In this paper we use the notion of multifractality to describe the complexity in Hα flare activity during the solar cycles 21, 22, and 23. Both northern and southern hemisphere flare indices are analyzed. Multifractal behavior of the flare activity is characterized by calculating the singularity spectrum of the daily flare index time series in terms of the Hölder exponent. The broadness of the singularity spectrum gives a measure of the degree of multifractality or complexity in the flare index data. The broader the spectrum, the richer and more complex is the structure with a higher degree of multifractality. Using this broadness measure, complexity in the flare index data is compared between the northern and southern hemispheres in each of the three cycles, and among the three cycles in each of the two hemispheres. Other parameters of the singularity spectrum can also provide information about the fractal properties of the flare index data. For instance, an asymmetry to the left or right in the singularity spectrum indicates a dominance of high or low fractal exponents, respectively, reflecting a relative abundance of large or small fluctuations in the total energy emitted by the flares. Our results reveal that in the even (22nd) cycle the singularity spectra are very similar for the northern and southern hemispheres, whereas in the odd cycles (21st and 23rd) they differ significantly. In particular, we find that in cycle 21, the northern hemisphere flare index data have higher complexity than its southern counterpart, with an opposite pattern prevailing in cycle 23. Furthermore, small-scale fluctuations in the flare index time series are predominant in the northern hemisphere in the 21st cycle and are predominant in the southern hemisphere in the 23rd cycle. Based on these findings one might suggest that, from cycle to cycle, there exists a smooth switching between the northern and southern hemispheres in the multifractality of the flaring process. This new observational result may bring an insight into the mechanisms of the solar dynamo operation and may also be useful for forecasting solar cycles.     

High abnormal rotation rates of sunspots and flare productivity

Solar activity, such as flares and CMEs, affect the interplanetary medium, and Earth’s atmosphere. Therefore, to understand the Space Weather, we need to understand the mechanisms of solar activity. Towards this end, we use 1135 events of solar H_α flares and the positional data of sunspots from the archive of Solar Geophysical Data (SGD) for the period January–April, 2000 and compute the abnormal rotation rates that lead to high flare productivity. We report that the occurrence of 5 or more flares in a day in association with a given sunspot group can be defined as high flare productivity and the sunspots that have an abnormal rotation rates of ～4–10 deg day^?1 trigger high flare productivity. Further, in order to compare the flare productivity expressed as the strength of the flux emitted, especially the soft X-ray (SXR) flares in the frequency range of 1–8 Å, we compute the flare index of SXR flares and find that 8 out of 28 active regions used in this study satisfy the requirement for being flare productive. This enables us to conclude that the high rotation rates of sunspots are an important mechanism to understand the flare productivity, especially numerical flare productivity that includes flares of all class.