Evaluating climate change induced water stress: A case study of the Lower Cape Fear basin,NC

With the possibility of future fresh water shortages increasing, a methodology that incorporates climatic and anthropogenic factors is needed. This research estimates future water availability in the Lower Cape Fear basin using changes in climate, land use, and population growth. The USGS Thornthwaite monthly water balance model is used with estimates of climate change and land use change parameters to assess future water resources based on predicted monthly fluxes of the water balance.The southern United States is a rapidly growing region. Trends present in the population data are used to produce future estimates of population for the basin. Precipitation and temperature estimates based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions and current climatology are inputs to the model. Projected increases in impervious surface cover due to population growth and urbanization are incorporated through the model runoff factor. Water stress indicators are used to categorize the sub-watersheds as water rich, water stressed, or water scarce. Scenarios incorporating regional predictions of climate change indicate a decrease in summer soil moisture minima and increases in summer water deficits. Ensemble runs indicate a shift toward water stress in the Lower Cape Fear River basin, due to a warming climate as well as increased demand. While climate change has a significant impact on water resources, population growth was found to have the most substantial impact. The methods and findings have application to water managers at local and regional levels.     

Spatio-temporal dynamics of regulating ecosystem services in Europe – The role of past and future land use change

Land use is a main driver for changes in supply and demand of regulating ecosystem services (ES). Most current ES inventories are static and do not address dynamics of ES supply resulting from historic and future land use change. This paper analyzes the role of land use change for the supply of two regulating services, flood regulation and climate regulation, in the European Union (EU) for the period between 1900 and 2000 as well as for four plausible scenarios of future land use change up to 2040. We show that spatio-temporal dynamics of climate regulation are high during this time period, and that future levels of climate regulation are higher than 100 years ago. For flood regulation, we show that increases in the demand over the past century, which are continued in the future scenarios, are the main contributor for spatial mismatches of supply and demand. Our results indicate that, in spite of land use change, the overall supply of the two regulating services is expected to be moderately stable, or to even increase in the coming decades. At the same time, demands for these services are rapidly increasing, and it is unlikely that projected supply is sufficient to meet these demands. The results also indicate that land use allocation that favors the supply of regulating services can be seen as a nature-based solution in which potentials for synergies between multiple ES can be operationalized.     

A Review on the Supply-Demand Relationship and Spatial Flows of Ecosystem Services

Research on spatial flow as it relates to the relationship between the supply and demand of ecosystem services supports a significant connection between the supply of ecosystem services and human well-being. Understanding the entire process of the production and flow, as well as the use of ecosystem services, accurately assessing the balance of supply and demand of ecosystem services, and establishing a two-way feedback relationship between supply and demand are vital for the scientific management of the ecosystem and ensuring the sustainable development of regional resources. Based on a large number of relevant publications, this paper comprehensively summarizes the concepts and assessment methods of ecosystem service supply and demand from the perspective of ecosystem service supply and demand, and discusses the impacts of land use and climate change on the temporal and spatial changes of ecosystem services under the background of global change. Then, an analysis of the research progress in the ecosystem services spatial flow indicated that there are still deficiencies in the quantification of cultural services, the dynamics of ecosystem service flow and the driving mechanism of ecosystem services. We also propose that clarifying the driving mechanism and transfer process of ecosystem services, and realizing the mutual conversion between different spatial-temporal scales of ecosystem services, is an important approach for improving the application of ecosystem services research in practice in the future.     

全球气候变化影响下中国农业产量的可持续性

气候变化的区域影响愈益成为具有挑战性的问题,尤其是气候变化对农业产量可持续性的影响已引起广泛的关注。基于全示气候变化对中国的影响和区域气候变率分析,提出了粮食气候产量形成模型,半将其应用于黄淮海地区冬小麦小分条件和产量研究,同时对全球气候变化情形下冬小麦产量的变化做出评价。     

中国粮食生产的综合影响因素分析

采用模型模拟的方式, 根据中国社会发展规划, 将未来社会经济发展情景与区域气候模型、水资源模型和作物模型相连接, 综合评估和分析未来中国的粮食生产状况, 以期为宏观决策提供科学参考。结果表明, ①气候变化将影响未来三大作物单产, 如果不考虑 CO₂ 肥效作用, 未来雨养作物单产将受到更大冲击; 当灌溉条件保障后, 水稻受到冲击更大, 单产降低最多, 尤其是 A2 情景。如果考虑 CO₂ 肥效作用, 未来玉米平均单产变化不大, 小麦单产明显增加, 尤其是雨养小麦, 水稻单产也有所增加。②未来气候变化、水资源、社会经济发展将影响中国三大作物的需水量和农业供水量, 导致水稻、灌溉玉米和小麦的播种面积下降, 而雨养小麦和玉米的播种面积上升。③未来气候变化、 CO₂ 肥效、水资源和土地利用变化对粮食生产的影响较为复杂, 依情景和时段的不同而不同。农业可用水资源对粮食总产的影响最不利, 致使三大作物粮食总产量明显降低, 成为未来粮食生产的主要限制因素, 尤其是水稻生产; 土地利用对总产的负面影响最小; 气候变化和 CO₂ 的相互作用可使总量少许增加。未来各情景下水稻受到冲击最大, 而小麦和玉米则表现为不同程度的增产。     

Global and Regional Water Availability and Demand: Prospects for the Future

One of the most pressing global issues currently facing mankind is the increase in world population and its impact on the availability of freshwater. Recent estimates of water stocks and flows through the world's hydrologic cycle and their spatiotemporal variability illustrate the nature of current and projected water disparities throughout the world. As all such problems manifest themselves at smaller scales, a major challenge in freshwater assessments is how to handle this on different geographical scales. Increasing use of water is creating water shortages in many countries that are projected to have significant population increases in the next 25 years. Humankind is projected to appropriate from 70% to 90% of all accessible freshwater by 2025. Agriculture is the dominant component of human water use, accounting for almost 70% of all water withdrawals. Hence, many of the solutions to water-related food and environmental security come from within agriculture by increasing the efficiency and productivity of water use. Many factors significantly impact the increasing water demand, including population growth, economic growth, technological development, land use and urbanization, rate of environmental degradation, government programs, climate change, and others. Demand management, not increasing supply availability, is the realistic way forward. Although, thanks to market forces, the threatened exhaustion of nonrenewable resources has not happened, renewable resources, such as freshwater, remain problematic because they are vulnerable to human overuse and pollution. Climate change adds further risks and uncertainties to the global picture requiring the adoption of adaptive management in water resources based on monitoring and reevaluation. Although climate change may be perceived as a long-term problem, it needs to be addressed now because decisions today will affect society's ability to adapt to increasing variability in tomorrow's climate. If we are to balance freshwater supply with demand, and also protect the integrity of aquatic ecosystems, a fundamental change in current wasteful patterns of production and consumption is needed. Recognition of the links between rapidly growing populations and shrinking freshwater supplies is the essential first step in making water use sustainable.     

内蒙古呼伦贝尔草原湖泊变化研究

内蒙古呼伦贝尔地区湖泊数量多,面积大,占内蒙古湖泊总面积的58%。近年来该地区湖泊趋于萎缩,但是已有研究主要关注大型湖泊,缺乏对该地区湖泊整体,尤其是小型湖泊(<1 km²)的研究。通过利用Landsat系列(TM、ETM+、OLI)卫星数据,参照该地区湖泊图集、湖泊名录以及Google Earth高清影像,分析了1986—2017年呼伦贝尔草原地区湖泊数量和面积变化;在此基础上结合气候和人类活动资料,讨论湖泊变化的影响因素。研究表明:近30 a呼伦贝尔地区湖泊显著萎缩,其中变化最为剧烈的是小型湖泊,新增5个,干涸19个,总面积减小超过30%。2000年前各类型湖泊面积均有增加,1998年降水量最大,湖泊面积相应达到峰值;2000—2010年湖泊面积呈萎缩趋势;2010年以后有所回升。将湖泊面积与气候条件(气温、降水量、潜在蒸散量)及人为活动因子(放牧强度、原煤产量、有效灌溉面积)进行相关分析发现,湖泊面积变化主要受人类活动的影响,气候变化的影响相对较小。     

黄土高原生态系统服务供需关系的时空变化

明晰生态系统服务供需匹配关系,对实现区域生态安全与社会经济可持续发展具有重要推动作用。本文以黄土高原为案例区,应用InVEST模型、ArcGIS、GeoDA等分析工具,分析黄土高原粮食供应、水源涵养、碳固存、土壤保持等服务的供需量及其匹配关系的时空变化,旨在为黄土高原国土空间格局优化提供决策依据。结果表明：1990—2018年,① 黄土高原除水源涵养服务供给量外,其他生态系统服务供需量均呈上升趋势,且各生态系统服务供给量及土壤保持服务需求量均呈“东南高、西北低”的分布特征,而粮食供应、水源涵养、碳固存服务需求量呈“四周高、中间低”的分布特征;② 各类生态系统服务供需比均呈下降趋势。空间分布上,粮食供应、碳固存服务在黄土高原四周人口密集区供不应求,而其他区域供大于求;水源涵养服务在该区西北部供不应求,但东南部供大于求;土壤保持服务供不应求区集中于鄂尔多斯高原及海北州北部;③ 各类生态系统服务供需均以低低空间匹配为主;④ 粮食供应、水源涵养、碳固存服务供需比的空间分布均以高高集聚为主,而土壤保持服务以低低集聚和高高集聚为主。除土壤保持服务供需比的空间集聚性有所增强外,其他生态系统服务均呈减弱趋势。     

气候变化对华北地区水资源供需影响的模拟预测

本文选择海河南系为华北地区的代表性区域,建立了该区水资源系统动力学模型(SD),对供需平衡在不同气候情景下的发展变化趋势进行了模拟预测。预测结果表明:气候变化对研究区水资源系统的正常运行将产生一定影响,尤其是对经济发展速度带来一定影响,但在本文假设的气候变化幅度范围,即(T≤1.8℃,ΔP≥-0.24%,气候变化不会改变水资源系统运行和发展的基本规律。经济发展、科技进步、人口增长和管理水平提高是水资源系统运行和发展变化的内在动力,决定着水资源系统及其供需平衡发展变化的基本趋势。预测结果可作为研究区需水管理和节水水平提高的定量参照指标,同时也为其经济规划、水资源调配提供必要的决策依据。     

华北平原水资源供需状况诊断

该文首先制定出一套水资源供需状况新的评价原则,即供需用综合评价,协调发展,环境与效益统一,量化及可对比以及层次分析等基本评价原则,然后采用综合评价模型对水资源供需状况进行诊断,并给出华北平原缺水的性质与类型。     

黄土丘陵区生态系统服务供需匹配研究——以兰州市为例

生态系统服务的持续供给是社会和自然可持续发展的基础,人类通过对生态系统服务的消费来满足需求和提高自身福祉。研究生态系统服务的供给和人类对生态系统服务的需求与消费,分析生态系统服务的供需特征与空间权衡关系,对区域生态系统的管理和资源的有效配置具有重要意义。以兰州市为例,利用全市2017年土地覆被、气象观测和统计年鉴等多源数据,应用InVEST模型、ArcGIS和GeoDA等空间分析工具,计算了研究区产水、食物供给、碳固持和土壤保持等4项服务的供给量及需求量,并对区域内生态系统服务的供需匹配状况进行了分析与评价。结果表明：① 兰州市各项生态系统服务的供给与需求空间异质性显著,各项服务总供给量均大于总需求量,且在不同区域与不同生态系统服务之间存在明显差异;② 兰州市综合生态系统服务供需比为0.039,不同生态系统服务供需匹配状况存在差异,产水服务（0.098）>碳固持服务（0.066）>食物供给服务（0.030）>土壤保持服务（0.001）,且城乡供需匹配差异显著;③ 兰州市生态系统服务供需空间匹配有“高高型空间匹配”、“低低型空间匹配”、“高低型空间错位”和“低高型空间错位”4种类型,且各项服务的主导空间匹配类型有所不同;④ 兰州市各项生态系统服务的供需平衡状况存在明显的协同作用,分别是“高高协同”与“低低协同”。     

基于水供给服务空间流动模型的渭河流域水资源安全格局

基于VIC模型量化了渭河流域水资源供需平衡关系;构建了水供给服务流动模型,模拟了渭河流域2005年、2010年和2015年的水资源安全格局,利用地理探测器探寻了区域水资源安全的主要驱动力.结果 表明:①流域内水资源供需矛盾突出,平均每年有10.89％的地区经上游水资源补给后达到用水安全,补给不充分和未受补给的区域增加,...     

秦岭南北地区环境变化响应比较研究

利用气象水文部门截止1999年的气象水文实测数据,计算分析在气候变暖过程中中国秦岭具有的区域响应分界意义。由于气候变暖,在百年时间尺度上,通过旱涝指数分析证明秦岭以北进入干旱期,秦岭以南为湿润期;在10年时间尺度上,陕南气温变化较小,而关中气温增高较快,陕南与关中年均气温差值变小;关中和陕南降水量差值变小,二者同时干旱或陕南更干旱,反映出秦岭在气候变化中显著的分界作用。气候变暖,渭河与汉江年径流系数同步减小,其中渭河径流系数由50年代的02下降为90年代的01以下,渭河流域已变为少水带,即相当于气候上的干旱区。秦岭以北地区较其以南地区环境干暖化的趋势更明显,这对于认识全球变化的区域响应差异有参考意义。     

A total water management analysis of the Las Vegas Wash watershed,Nevada

Climate change, land-use change, and population growth are fundamental factors affecting future hydrologic conditions in streams, especially in arid regions with scarce water resources. Located in the arid southwest within the Las Vegas Wash watershed, Las Vegas is one of the fastest growing metropolitan areas of the country. In the past 30?years, because of climate and land-use changes, it has experienced a decrease in clean water supply but an increase in water demand. To alleviate some of these problems, large amounts of water have been pumped into the city from different sources, such as Lake Mead, and the urban wastewater is treated and returned back to the reservoir for water augmentation. However, in the face of continual global climate change and urbanization in the watershed, long-term planning for sustainable water management is critical. This research was designed to provide a comprehensive analysis incorporating hydrologic modeling, population projection, land-use change modeling, and water management policies to examine the total water balance and management options in this arid and rapidly urbanizing watershed under various scenarios of climate regime, population growth, land-use change, and total water management programs for the year 2050.     

极点对称模态分解下陕西气候变化特征及影响因素

全球变暖背景下,受人类活动和气候系统波动共同影响,气候要素响应具有非线性、非平稳特征,如何识别气候变化多时间尺度信息,是当前研究的热点话题.基于1970—2017年气温和降水逐日数据,辅以滑动平均、趋势分析和极点对称模态分解(ESMD)等方法,对陕西3大地理单元气候时空特征进行分析,进而探讨不同海区厄尔尼诺指数与气温、...     

气候变化对石羊河流域农户生计资本的影响

气候变化是全球变化的核心问题,其影响已经深入到人类生活的各个领域,引起了国际社会的广泛关注。明确气候变化对农户生计的影响以及农户适应气候变化的策略及其需求,是区域可持续发展中急需解决的关键问题。本文基于石羊河流域1963-2012年气候变化和493个农户的入户调查数据,分析了气候变化对石羊河流域不同福利水平农户生计资本的影响及农户适应气候变化的策略和需求。结果表明:(1)流域上游气候呈显著的暖湿化趋势,中游和下游气候暖湿化趋势不显著。(2)气候变化对中游和下游农户生计资本的影响均大于上游农户,其中,对中等福利群体的生计资本影响最显著,对高福利群体的影响次之,对低福利群体的影响最小。农户自然资本受气候变化的影响最强,物质资本和社会资本受气候变化的影响最弱。(3)流域内农户均倾向选择减少消费和外出务工来适应气候变化,其中,选择减少消费的农户比重最高,选择外出务工和向亲属或政府求助的比重次之。高福利群体中选择减少消费和外出务工策略的比重较高,中等福利群体中选择求助亲属或政府策略的比重较高。(4)流域内农户对信息和资金的需求均较显著,其中,对信息的需求最强烈,对资金、技术和劳动力素质的需求次之。高福利群体和低福利群体在就业信息方面的需求最强烈,中等福利群体在农牧业市场信息方面的需求最强烈。     

Gendering Climate Change: Geographical Insights

Although climate change is expected to increase vulnerabilities, marginalization, and sufferings of many in the Global South, impacts will be unevenly felt across social strata. Intersectionalities of social difference, especially along gender and class lines, differentiate the ways in which impacts of climate change are experienced and responded to. Feminist political ecology and feminist geography insights can explain how different groups of people understand, respond to, and cope with variability and uncertainties in nuanced and critical ways, thereby elucidating the gendered implications of climate change. With a regional focus on South Asia, the article underscores the key issues that can be applied geographically elsewhere. Gendered implications of climate change in South Asia are particularly poignant as patriarchal norms, inequities, and inequalities often place women and men in differentiated positions in their abilities to respond to and cope with dramatic changes in socioecological relations but also foreground the complex ways in which social power relations operate in communal responses to adaptation strategies. This is particularly evident in water-related productive and reproductive tasks in agrarian societies that constitute the majority of South Asia. As climate change is expected to exacerbate both ecological degradation (e.g., water shortages) and water-related natural hazards (e.g., floods, cyclones), thereby transforming gender–water geographies, it becomes imperative to undertake careful multiscalar and critical analyses to better inform policymaking. This article elucidates the complex ways that climate change will affect gender and social relations, thereby highlighting the ways that existing policy narratives and adaptation programs might be better informed by geographical insights. To this end, the article encourages feminist and critical geographers to more forcefully and fruitfully engage with global debates on climate change.     

中国综合气候变化风险区划

气候变化作用于自然环境与社会经济系统,产生一系列影响。随着未来社会经济发展,气候变化危险性与自然环境和社会经济承险体耦合形成有规律的风险时空格局。将此时空格局系统化表达即是综合气候变化风险区划,是适应气候变化的科学基础之一。本文基于RCP 8.5下的近中期（2021-2050年）气候情景,分析了中国未来气温和降水变化趋势与速率,评价了干旱、高温热浪以及洪涝等极端事件危险性,选取人口、经济、粮食生产和生态系统等承险体风险作为综合风险定量评估的指标。在系统性、主导因素以及空间连续性原则的指导下,提出中国综合气候变化风险区划三级区域系统方案,划分出8个气候变化敏感区、19个极端事件危险区和46个承险体综合风险区。结果发现：2021-2050年RCP 8.5情景下中国的气候变化高风险区主要包括：华北弱暖增雨敏感区,华北平原热浪危险区,人口经济粮食高风险区;华南—西南弱暖增雨敏感区,黔滇山地热浪危险区,生态经济粮食人口高风险区;华南沿海涝热危险区,生态粮食经济人口高风险区。中国综合气候变化风险区划涵盖了气候变化情景、极端事件发生、社会经济与生态系统的可能损失信息,可以为国家或地方应对气候变化及气候变化风险管理提供科技支撑。     

基于RS的新疆哈密地区生态环境需水分析

干旱半干旱地区水资源缺乏,准确地计算区域生态环境用水和生态环境需水,可以对稀缺水资源进行合理调配,同时起到生态保护的作用。研究过程主要分为两个步骤:(1)采用RS技术,对新疆哈密地区1990年、2000年、2005年中巴资源一号卫星(China Brazil Earth Resources Sat-ellite)数据进行解译,形成1990年、2000年、2005年哈密地区土地覆被图形数据和相应的属性数据,确定相应年份各景观类型的面积;(2)参考有关研究并结合哈密地区实际情况,确定各景观类型的单位生态用水定额和需水定额,进而计算出1990年、2000年、2005年哈密地区的生态用水量,并以2005年哈密地区生态用水量为主要依据计算出保持哈密地区生态环境现状的生态需水量。研究结果表明,为了实现哈密地区生态环境整体保持在现状水平不致恶化、局部区域生态环境(巴里坤湖区)有所改善的生态治理目标,区域内生态环境需水总量为7.526×109m3,这一庞大的需水量将对该地区水资源配置造成巨大的压力;而当结合各类景观的地物空间位置特征进行分析时,发现该区域生态用(需)水量最大的景观(低覆盖草地)可以利用山地积雪融水进行自给,区域内实际需要规划配置的生态环境需水量为2.66×108m3,仅占区域生态环境需水总量的3.53%。在区域生态用(需)水计算过程中应考虑各种景观类型的生态用(需)水量的时空差异性,以保证水资源调配的科学与合理。     

Spatio-temporal variations of the flood mitigation service of ecosystem under different climate scenarios in the Upper Reaches of Hanjiang River Basin,China

Extreme rainstorm and the subsequent flood increasingly threaten the security of human society and ecological environment with aggravation of global climate change and anthropogenic activity in recent years. Therefore, the research on flood mitigation service (FMS) of ecosystem should be paid more attention to mitigate the risk. In this paper, we assessed FMS in the Upper Reaches of Hanjiang River (URHR), China from 2000 to 2014 using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) model, and further simulated the future FMS under two climate scenarios (in 2020 and 2030). The results reveal that the FMS presented a fluctuating rising trend in the URHR from 2000 to 2014. The FMS in southern URHR was higher than that of northern URHR, and the change rate of FMS in the upstream of URHR (western URHR) was higher than the downstream of URHR (eastern URHR). The future FMS under scenarios of Medium-High Emissions (A2) and Medium-Low Emissions (B2) will decrease consistently. As land use/land cover changes in the URHR are negligible, we concluded that the change in FMS was mainly driven by climate change, such as storm and runoff. Our study highlights that climate scenarios analysis should be incorporated into the assessment of hydrologic-related services to facilitate regional water resources management.