An Intercomparison Among Four Models Of Blowing Snow

Four one-dimensional, time-dependent blowing snow models areintercompared. These include three spectral models, PIEKTUK-T,WINDBLAST, SNOWSTORM, and the bulk version of PIEKTUK-T,PIEKTUK-B. Although the four models are based on common physicalconcepts, they have been developed by different research groups. Thestructure of the models, numerical methods, meteorological field treatmentand the parameterization schemes may be different. Under an agreed standardcondition, the four models generally give similar results for the thermodynamic effects of blowing snow sublimation on the atmospheric boundary layer, including an increase of relative humidity and a decrease of the ambient temperature due to blowing snow sublimation. Relative humidity predicted by SNOWSTORM is lower than the predictions of the other models, which leads to a larger sublimation rate in SNOWSTORM. All four models demonstrate that sublimation rates in a column of blowing snow have a single maximum in time, illustrating self-limitation of the sublimation process of blowing snow. However, estimation of the eddy diffusioncoefficient for momentum (K_m), and thereby the diffusion coefficients for moisture (K_w) and for heat (K_h), has a significant influence on the process. Sensitivitytests with PIEKTUK-T show that the sublimation rate can be approximately constant with time after an initial phase, if K_m is a linear function with height. In order to match the model results with blowing snow observations, some parameters in the standard run, such as settling velocity of blowing snow particles in these models, may need to be changed to more practical values.     

A Bulk Blowing Snow Model

We present in this paper a simple and computationally efficient numerical model that depicts a column of sublimating, blowing snow. This bulk model predicts the mixing ratio of suspended snow by solving an equation that considers the diffusion, settling and sublimation of blowing snow in a time-dependent mode. The bulk model results compare very well with those of a previous spectral version of the model, while increasing its computational efficiency by a factor of about one hundred. This will allow the use of the model to estimate the effects of blowing snow upon the atmospheric boundary layer and to the mass balance of such regions as the Mackenzie River Basin of Canada.     

双线偏振雷达资料在数值模式中的应用: 模拟器的构建

基于Rayleigh-Gans散射原理构造一个S波段双线偏振雷达模拟器。模拟器考虑了云冰、雪、雨和雹4种水凝物,以水凝物的混合比和数浓度以及水凝物粒子的轴比、相对介电常数、下落倾角为输入量,计算得到水平/垂直偏振反射率因子、差分反射率、比差分相位等偏振量。通过二维理想飑线模拟的试验结果表明,模拟器合理地再现了二维理想飑线系统成熟期的主要偏振特征:雹的反射率较高,差分反射率较低(又称Zdr洞);对流云区的Zdr柱;层云区的反射率和比差分相位的0℃层亮带特征;雨滴反射率与差分反射率因子的“雨线”统计特征。利用该模拟器建立了模式变量和偏振雷达观测的联系,有助于未来将偏振雷达观测资料应用于模式预报效果评估及对流尺度资料同化等方面的研究和应用。      

毫米波测云雷达在降雪观测中的应用初步分析

本文利用毫米波云雷达联合称重式雨量计、气球探空和S波段天气雷达在北京对2015年11月三次降雪进行了观测,以2015年11月22~23日降雪过程为例,主要从降雪系统的宏观结构特征、微物理变化以及毫米波雷达在降雪探测中电磁波衰减情况、雪粒子含水量和地面降雪量估测几方面进行初步分析。结果表明:（1）毫米波云雷达具有高时空分辨率,能对降雪系统进行精细化探测,在降雪系统发展最旺盛的阶段能够通过反射率（Z）、退极化比（LDR）和径向速度（V）初步判断出云中是否含有过冷液滴;（2）降雪回波强度最大值能反映整层云系中含水量最大的区域,当最大值Z大于20 dBZ时,最大值的大小、最大值持续时间、最大值出现的高度与地面降水量成正相关,速度最大值表示云中粒子上升最大速度（速度为正时）或者粒子下落的最小速度（速度为负时）,主要分布在－0.5~2 m s?1,速度最小值表示粒子下落的最大速度,主要在－3~－1 m s?1;（3）随着高度增加反射率的垂直廓线会出现多个峰值,这是由于不同高度层风速分布不均造成的,降雪回波这种特点比降雨回波更明显;（4）对比Ka与S波段雷达反射率可知,两雷达反射率平均差值小于2.5 dBZ,Ka波段反射率略大S波段雷达反射率;（5）降雪量反演与地面降雪量仪数据对比,逐小时降雪量反演精度为20.38%,累计降雪量反演误差为6.58%,24小时累计降雪量绝对误差为1.9 mm,说明云雷达估算累计降雪量具有较高的可行性,能够很准确的反映地面实际降雪情况,当降雪系统发展旺盛时,雪粒子含水量分布在0.05~0.15 g m?3,在降雪初期或者降雪系统消散期,雪粒子含水量一般小于0.04 g m?3,能够很好地反映出整层降雪回波的雪粒子含水量。这些云雷达在降雪观测中的应用和初步分析结果可以更好的地了解降雪系统宏微观结构,为云模式的发展和人工影响天气中增雪潜力评估提供一些参考。     

Radar observations of snow formation in a warm pre‐frontal snowband

Abstract

Radar reflectivity measurements and sounding data were analyzed to investigate snowfall production in a long‐lasting snowband that formed in advance of a warm surface front moving across Alberta. The sounding data indicated that the band could have been forced by slantwise overturning during the release of moist symmetric instability combined with frontogenesis. The stability analysis presented here is novel in that it includes ice phase thermodynamics, neglected in previous studies of slantwise convection.

Radar reflectivity fields were analyzed to determine the total snow content and the mass outflow rate as factors of time. The peak value of total snow content was 17 kilotons per km of snowband, and the peak mass outflow rate was 10 tons s^‐1 km^‐1. The snowfall rate averaged across the cloud base was about 0.8 cm h^‐1, and the average snow content remained close to 0.2 g m^‐1. The characteristic time (defined as the ratio of total snow content over mass outflow rate) was about 30 minutes, which is approximately the time needed for the growth of snowflakes by aggregation in the observed temperature range. The precipitation efficiency of the snowband, defined as the ratio of snow mass outflow to water vapour inflow was estimated to be 14%. The precipitation production values observed in the Alberta snowband are compared with previous estimates reported for frontal rainbands and Alberta thunderstorms.     

Simulation Of Blowing Snow In The Canadian Arctic Using A Double-Moment Model

We describe in this paper the development of a double-moment modelof blowing snow and its application to the Canadian Arctic. Wefirst outline the formulation of the numerical model, whichsolves a prognostic equation for both the blowing snow mixingratio and total particle numbers, both moments of particles thatare gamma-distributed. Under idealized simulations, the modelyields realistic evolutions of the blowing snow particledistributions, transport and sublimation rates as well as the thermodynamic fields at low computational costs. A parametrizationof the blowing snow sublimation rate is subsequently derived. The model and parametrization are then applied to a Canadian Arctictundra site prone to frequent blowing snow events. Over a period of210 days during the winter of 1996/1997, the near-surfacerelative humidity consistently approaches saturationwith respect to ice. These conditions limit snowpack erosion byblowing snow sublimation to 3 mm snow water equivalent (swe)with surface sublimation removing an additional 7 mm swe.We find that our results are highly sensitiveto the proper assimilation of the humidity measurements and the evolving thermodynamic fields in the atmospheric boundary layer during blowingsnow. These factors may explain the lower values of blowing snow sublimationreported in this paper than previously published for the region.     

Quantitative detection of mass concentration of sand-dust storms via wind-profiling radar and analysis of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Z</Emphasis>-<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> relationship

With the aim to achieve quantitative monitoring of sand-dust storms in real time, wind-profiling radar is applied to monitor and study the process of four sand-dust storms in the Tazhong area of the Taklimakan Desert. Through evaluation and analysis of the spatial-temporal distribution of reflectivity factor, it is found that reflectivity factor ranges from 2 to 18 dBz under sand-dust storm weather. Using echo power spectrum of radar vertical beams, sand-dust particle spectrum and sand-dust mass concentration at the altitude of 600 ～ 1500 m are retrieved. This study shows that sand-dust mass concentration reaches 700?μg/m³ under blowing sand weather, 2000?μg/m³ under sand-dust storm weather, and 400?μg/m³ under floating dust weather. The following equations are established to represent the relationship between the reflectivity factor and sand-dust mass concentration: Z?=?20713.5?M ^0.995 under floating dust weather, Z?=?22988.3?M ^1.006 under blowing sand weather, and Z?=?24584.2?M ^1.013 under sand-dust storm weather. The retrieval results from this paper are almost consistent with previous monitoring results achieved by former researchers; thus, it is implied that wind-profiling radar can be used as a new reference device to quantitatively monitor sand-dust storms.     

用多普勒雷达反射率调整模式大气的云微物理变量

一种简单云分析方案, 用于由多普勒天气雷达反射率反演中尺度大气模式初值分析中的云微物理变量（云水混合比和雨水混合比）和空气湿度变量（比湿），使模式积分初始场反映出观测空间的云微物理特征以及哪些空间位置上的大气处于饱和状态。应用于2002年6月梅雨期安徽省马鞍山市一次降水过程的临近数值预报试验结果表明，模式预报的大气综合反射率与雷达观测的回波图像相近，由云微物理变量变化表示的模式云系演变与雷达观测的回波图像一致, 伴随模拟的中小尺度云系, 模式大气能很快调整出合理的中小尺度流场辐散、辐合结构；它们明显好于模式初始场不引入雷达反射率时的结果，即这种方法对改进临近数值天气预报准确率是有效的。     

The Thermodynamic Effects of Sublimating, Blowing Snow in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer

A seasonal snowcover blankets much of Canada during wintertime. In such an environment, the frequency of blowing snow events is relatively high and can have important meteorological and hydrological impacts. Apart from the transport of snow, the thermodynamic impact of sublimating blowing snow in air near the surface can be investigated. Using a time or fetch-dependent blowing snow model named 'PIEKTUK' that incorporates prognostic equations for a spectrum of sublimating snow particles, plus temperature and humidity distributions, it is found that the sublimation of blowing snow can lead to temperature decreases of the order of 0.5 °C and significant water vapour increases in the near-surface air. Typical predicted snow removal rates due to sublimation of blowing snow are several millimetres snow water equivalent per day over open Arctic tundra conditions. The model forecast sublimation rates are most sensitive to humidity, as well as wind speed, temperature and particle distributions, with a maximum value in sublimation typically found approximately 1 km downstream from blowing snow initiation. This suggests that the sublimation process is self-limiting despite ongoing transport of snow by wind, yielding significantly lower values of blowing snow sublimation rates (nearly two-thirds less) compared to situations where the thermodynamic feedbacks are neglected. The PIEKTUK model may provide the necessary thermodynamic inputs or blowing snow parameterizations for mesoscale models, allowing the assessment of the contribution of blowing snow fluxes, in more complex situations, to the moisture budgets of high-latitude regions.     

雷达资料对0414号台风“云娜”数值预报的改进

运用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了2004年12月初登陆我国台湾的冬季台风"南玛都"的性质结构特征,结果表明:冬季台风"南玛都"具有与夏季台风相同的暖湿中心和低层辐合、高层辐散的环流特征,不同的是低层辐合气流中西南气流不明显,台风涡旋气流对大气的扰动偏弱.台风过程海平面气压距平场的EOF分析表明,台风生命史中的扰动主要由EOF1和EOF2构成(占90%的方差),EOF1反映台风结构和强度变化,EOF2反映了台风移动过程中的环境状态变化.     

The implementation of reverse Kessler warm rain scheme for radar reflectivity assimilation using a nudging approach in New Zealand

Reverse Kessler warm rain processes were implemented within the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and coupled with a Newtonian relaxation, or nudging technique designed to improve quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) in New Zealand by making use of observed radar reflectivity and modest computing facilities. One of the reasons for developing such a scheme, rather than using 4D-Var for example, is that radar VAR scheme in general, and 4D-Var in particular, requires computational resources beyond the capability of most university groups and indeed some national forecasting centres of small countries like New Zealand. The new scheme adjusts the model water vapor mixing ratio profiles based on observed reflectivity at each time step within an assimilation time window. The whole scheme can be divided into following steps: (i) The radar reflectivity is firstly converted to rain water, and (ii) then the rain water is used to derive cloud water content according to the reverse Kessler scheme; (iii) The cloud water content associated water vapor mixing ratio is then calculated based on the saturation adjustment processes; (iv) Finally the adjusted water vapor is nudged into the model and the model background is updated. 13 rainfall cases which occurred in the summer of 2011/2012 in New Zealand were used to evaluate the new scheme, different forecast scores were calculated and showed that the new scheme was able to improve precipitation forecasts on average up to around 7 hours ahead depending on different verification thresholds.     

应用雷达回波强度资料反演大气云微物理量

文中利用三维变分原理 ,由多普勒天气雷达回波强度反演模式大气的雨水混合比 qr,分析变量 qr 的确定取决于对目标函数的极小化计算 ,目标函数由分析变量 qr 与 qr 的背景场之差 ,以及由分析变量演算的大气回波强度与雷达观测的回波强度之差构成。采用所谓的NMC方法求取模式变量的背景场误差协方差矩阵 ,采用二阶自回归型相关函数确定空间水平变换中的递归滤波系数以适用于反映积云结构的小尺度空间。通过理想数值试验 ,验证了变分同化系统和结果的合理性 ,由敏感性试验说明了雷达观测的回波强度随机误差对于反演的qr 值有一定的影响。对 2 0 0 2年 6月 19日安徽省马鞍山市一次多普勒雷达实际观测数据的个例试验表明 ,经过变分同化反演后的积云尺度模式大气的 qr 场与观测的雷达回波图像的细节相吻合。     

雨滴谱分布函数的选择:M-P和Gamma分布的对比研究

M-P分布和Gamma分布是常用的两种雨滴谱分布函数。利用PMS GBPP-100型雨滴谱仪2003年7-8月在沈阳观测的雨滴谱资料,采用阶矩法对两种分布函数进行拟合,对比分析两种分布函数对谱及数浓度、雨强和雷达反射率因子的拟合效果。结果表明,在降水较弱、小滴偏少时Gamma分布会低估小滴,而M-P分布会高估小滴;降水强时,两种分布均低估小滴。M-P和Gamma分布对数浓度、雨强和雷达反射率因子这些特征量的拟合效果,在降水较强时差异很小,在降水较弱时差异较大。Gamma分布的代表性更好。此外,还讨论了两种分布的参数和雨强的关系。     

A Two-Moment Bulk Microphysics Coupled with a Mesoscale Model WRF: Model Description and First Results

The Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) two-moment bulk microphysics scheme was adopted in this study to investigate the representation of cloud and precipitation processes under different environmental conditions.The scheme predicts the mixing ratio of water vapor as well as the mixing ratios and number concentrations of cloud droplets,rain,ice,snow,and graupel.A new parameterization approach to simulate heterogeneous droplet activation was developed in this scheme.Furthermore,the improved CAMS scheme was coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF v3.1),which made it possible to simulate the microphysics of clouds and precipitation as well as the cloud-aerosol interactions in selected atmospheric condition.The rain event occurring on 27-28 December 2008 in eastern China was simulated using the CAMS scheme and three sophisticated microphysics schemes in the WRF model.Results showed that the simulated 36-h accumulated precipitations were generally agreed with observation data,and the CAMS scheme performed well in the southern area of the nested domain.The radar reflectivity,the averaged precipitation intensity,and the hydrometeor mixing ratios simulated by the CAMS scheme were generally consistent with those from other microphysics schemes.The hydrometeor number concentrations simulated by the CAMS scheme were also close to the experiential values in stratus clouds.The model results suggest that the CAMS scheme performs reasonably well in describing the microphysics of clouds and precipitation in the mesoscale WRF model.     

山东北部一次夏末雹暴地面降水粒子谱特征

为了更好地认识雹暴等强对流降水的微物理特征,利用降水现象仪观测资料和CINRAD/SA-D双偏振天气雷达的粒子相态识别和反射率因子等产品,分析2019年8月16日出现在山东北部的一次雹暴降水的雨、冰粒子谱(包括直径2～5 mm的霰粒子和直径大于5 mm的冰雹)的识别以及雨滴谱的演变特征,结果显示:济南双偏振天气雷达0....     

张家口地区一次长时间降雪过程的滴谱特征分析

利用OTT Parsivel激光雨滴谱仪和站点加密观测资料,分析2019年11月29日张家口地区一次长时间降雪天气过程开始、雪花、稳定强降雪、结束4个阶段的滴谱演变特征,结果表明：(1)降雪天气过程中微物理参量(降水强度R、数浓度Nt、雨水含量W、雷达反射率因子Z、质量加权平均直径D_m)演变趋势基本相同,其中开始阶段、稳定强降雪阶段、结束阶段的降水强度、雨水含量、雷达反射率因子受粒子数浓度影响较大,而雪花阶段降水强度、雨水含量、雷达反射率因子受粒子直径影响较大。(2)稳定强降雪阶段,粒子数浓度Nt量级为10³～10⁴个/m³,而D_m<1 mm,这是由于大雪片在温度较低的情况下,下落过程中破碎形成大量小雪片。降雪过程中,雪滴下落速度<2 m/s的粒子数占总粒子数的90%,强降雪阶段的雪滴下落速度集中于1～1.5 m/s。(3)在降雪过程中,最小二乘法拟合效果优于二、三、四阶矩方法。     

多普勒天气雷达资料对中尺度模式短时预报的影响

利用中尺度模式ARPS(The Advanced Regional Prediction System)及其资料分析系统ADAS(ARPS Data Analysis System),将国内新一代多普勒雷达(CINRAD)反射率及径向风资料直接用于中尺度数值模拟,通过一次华北地区暴雨过程的模拟对比试验,分析了雷达资料对初始场的改进效果及其对模拟结果的影响,结果表明:(1)利用雷达径向风资料对初始风场进行调整后,自近地面到对流层顶的u,v,w都发生了变化,调整后的初始风场在对流层中层变化最大.(2)利用雷达反射率进行微物理调整和云分析能调整初始场中的云水信息,使得雷达回波附近3 km以下的水汽混合比(qv)增加,4 km以下的雨水混合比(qr)增加,对流层(约10 km以下)的云水混合比(qc)增加,4～9 km的对流层上部云冰混合比(qi)和雪混合比(qs)增加.ADAS通过非绝热初始化调整温度场,从而得到了一个动力和热力上平衡的初始场.(3)模拟的1 h雨量与实况的对比表明,同时利用雷达反射率和径向风改进过的初始场能明显增强3 h内的降水强度和落区预报,改善中尺度数值模式短时定量降水预报.模拟的1 h流场对比分析表明,经雷达径向风调整后,能够在初始场中增加气旋性涡旋等中小尺度风信息,明显减少模式的spin-up时间.(4)通过对雷达径向风和反射率对模式初始场和模拟结果影响的对比分析发现,雷达径向风主要是改进初始风场,而雷达反射率主要是改进初始场中的湿度参数,增加初始场中云水等的含量,调整温度场.通过模拟的6 h降水对比发现,利用雷达径向风调整初始场后,对降水模拟有一定的改进,但效果不甚明显,而雷达反射率资料对定量降水预报改进效果明显,同时使用雷达径向风和反射率资料改进初始场后对降水的模拟效果最明显.     

云滴数浓度影响混合型层状云降水的数值模拟

使用耦合了Morrison双参数微物理方案的中尺度WRF模式V2．2,对2008年1月25-29日发生在我国南方的冰雪天气过程进行了数值试验。在模式准确再现了此次天气过程形势演变特点的基础上,对模式微物理方案中云滴数浓度影响累积降水量的情况进行了敏感性试验,发现云滴数浓度对降水量的影响是复杂和非线性的。对此次天气过程中的微物理量进行了详细的分析,并从各种水成物粒子的发展演变上,讨论了云滴数浓度的增加在暖云和冷云两种降水机制上对降水产生的不同影响。结果表明,云滴数浓度越大,云水混合比就越大,云滴的尺度越小。雨滴对不同云滴数浓度的响应与云滴的情况相反,随着云滴数浓度的增加,雨滴数浓度减小,雨水也减少,暖云降水过程受到了抑制;冰晶和雪晶的数浓度的演变过程没有明显变化,而冰晶和雪晶的混合比是相应增加的,冷云降水过程得到了一定程度的增强。从本文模拟的个例来看,设置不同云滴数浓度所得到的总累计降水量的差异在1％以内。总的来说,增加云滴数浓度,降水量会减少。从比例上来看,增加云滴数浓度对暖云降水过程的抑制作用比对冷云降水过程的增强作用更为显著,但是在本文模拟的个例中,冷云降水过程占主导地位,减少的降水和增加的降水的绝对值在同一个量级上并且数值相近,它们相互抵消后得到的结果是降水量变化的绝对值大大减小了,这解释了增加云滴数浓度后模拟的总累积降水量变化不明显的原因。     

雷达反射率三维拼图观测资料在北方区域数值模式预报系统中的同化应用研究

以业务应用为目标,开展雷达反射率三维拼图观测资料在北方区域数值预报系统中的同化应用研究。采用雷达反射率间接同化方法同化北方雷达反射率拼图观测资料,重点关注其对降水、湿度、温度及风的预报能力影响。首先,基于2017年8月雷达拼图观测资料批量同化和对比试验,对雷达拼图资料同化应用效果进行定量评估,结果表明雷达拼图资料同化虽然加大了地面风场预报误差,但在降水预报和湿度、温度预报等方面有明显的改善作用。其次,选择在业务中预报难度较大的强降水个例开展分析研究,分析表明:（1）同化雷达拼图观测资料有效提高了模式降水预报性能,临近降水发生的循环起报时次预报效果更好;（2）对于短时间多次强降水过程发生的预报,循环同化雷达拼图资料可及时弥补模式中由于前次降水导致的水汽、能量等消耗及热/动力条件削弱,持续支持降水系统发展。最后,通过考察雷达反射率的不同同化方案,发现同化反演水凝物或者估计水汽均能改善模式降水预报性能,但是同化估计水汽对降水预报性能的改善更为明显,联合使用两方案能同时对水凝物分布、热力场等进行调整,可提高模式降水预报性能。      

IMPROVEMENT OF NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF TYPHOON RANANIM (0414) BY USING DOPPLER RADAR DATA

Typhoon Rananim (0414) has been simulated by using the non-hydrostatic Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) from Center of Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS). The prediction of Rananim has generally been improved with ARPS using the new generation CINRAD Doppler radar data. Numerical experiments with or without using the radar data have shown that model initial fields with the assimilated radar radial velocity data in ARPS can change the wind field at the middle and high levels of the troposphere; fine characteristics of the tropical cyclone (TC) are introduced into the initial wind, the x component of wind speed south of the TC is increased and so is the y component west of it. They lead to improved forecasting of TC tracks for the time after landfall. The field of water vapor mixing ratio, temperature, cloud water mixing ratio and rainwater mixing ratio have also been improved by using radar reflectivity data. The model’s initial response to the introduction of hydrometeors has been increased. It is shown that horizontal model resolution has a significant impact on intensity forecasts, by greatly improving the forecasting of TC rainfall, and heavy rainstorm of the TC specially, as well as its distribution and variation with time.