Gamma-ray bursts from the early Universe: predictions for present-day and future instruments

Long gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are important for the study of the Universe near and beyond the epoch of reionization. In this paper, we describe the characteristics of an 'ideal' instrument that can be used to search for GRBs at z ≥ 6–10. We find that the detection of these objects requires soft-band detectors with high sensitivity and a moderately large field of view. In light of these results, we compare available and planned GRB missions, deriving conservative predictions of the number of high-redshift GRBs detectable by these instruments along with the maximum accessible redshift. We show that the Swift satellite will be able to detect various GRBs at z ≥ 6, and likely at z ≥ 10 if the trigger threshold is decreased by a factor of ∼2. Furthermore, we find that INTEGRAL and GLAST are not the best tools to detect bursts at z ≥ 6, the former being limited by the small field of view, and the latter by its hard energy band and relatively low sensitivity. Finally, future missions ( SVOM , EDGE and, in particular, EXIST ) will provide a good sample of GRBs at z ≥ 6 within a few years of operation.     

An improved model for contraction of dark matter haloes in response to condensation of baryons

The cooling of gas in the centres of dark matter haloes is expected to lead to a more concentrated dark matter distribution. The response of dark matter to the condensation of baryons is usually calculated using the model of adiabatic contraction, which assumes spherical symmetry and circular orbits. Following Gnedin et al., we improve this model by modifying the assumed invariant from M ( r ) r to     , where r and     are the current and orbit-averaged particle positions. We explore the effect of the bulge in the inner regions of the halo for different values of the bulge-to-disc mass ratio. We find that the bulge makes the velocity curve rise faster in the inner regions of the halo. We present an analytical fitting curve that describes the velocity curve of the halo after dissipation. The results should be useful for dark matter detection studies.     

On model selection forecasting, dark energy and modified gravity

The Fisher matrix approach allows one to calculate in advance how well a given experiment will be able to estimate model parameters, and has been an invaluable tool in experimental design. In the same spirit, we present here a method to predict how well a given experiment can distinguish between different models, regardless of their parameters. From a Bayesian viewpoint, this involves computation of the Bayesian evidence. In this paper, we generalize the Fisher matrix approach from the context of parameter fitting to that of model testing, and show how the expected evidence can be computed under the same simplifying assumption of a Gaussian likelihood as the Fisher matrix approach for parameter estimation. With this 'Laplace approximation' all that is needed to compute the expected evidence is the Fisher matrix itself. We illustrate the method with a study of how well upcoming and planned experiments should perform at distinguishing between dark energy models and modified gravity theories. In particular, we consider the combination of 3D weak lensing, for which planned and proposed wide-field multiband imaging surveys will provide suitable data, and probes of the expansion history of the Universe, such as proposed supernova and baryonic acoustic oscillations surveys. We find that proposed large-scale weak-lensing surveys from space should be able readily to distinguish General Relativity from modified gravity models.     

Evidence for luminosity evolution of long gamma-ray bursts in Swift data

We compute the luminosity function (LF) and the formation rate of long gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) by fitting the observed differential peak flux distribution obtained by the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) in two different scenarios: (i) the GRB luminosity evolves with redshift and (ii) GRBs form preferentially in low-metallicity environments. In both cases, model predictions are consistent with the Swift number counts and with the number of detections at   z > 2.5  and >3.5. To discriminate between the two evolutionary scenarios, we compare the model results with the number of luminous bursts (i.e. with isotropic peak luminosity in excess of 10⁵³ erg s⁻¹) detected by Swift in its first 3 yr of mission. Our sample conservatively contains only bursts with good redshift determination and measured peak energy. We find that pure luminosity evolution models can account for the number of sure identifications. In the case of a pure density evolution scenario, models with   Z _th > 0.3 Z_⊙  are ruled out with high confidence. For lower metallicity thresholds, the model results are still statistically consistent with available lower limits. However, many factors can increase the discrepancy between model results and data, indicating that some luminosity evolution in the GRB LF may be needed also for such low values of Z _th. Finally, using these new constraints, we derive robust upper limits on the bright end of the GRB LF, showing that this cannot be steeper than ∼2.6.     

Generating dark matter halo merger trees

We present a new Monte Carlo algorithm to generate merger trees describing the formation history of dark matter haloes. The algorithm is a modification of the algorithm of Cole et al. used in the galform semi-analytic galaxy formation model. As such, it is based on the Extended Press–Schechter theory and so should be applicable to hierarchical models with a wide range of power spectra and cosmological models. It is tuned to be in accurate agreement with the conditional mass functions found in the analysis of merger trees extracted from the Λ cold dark matter Millennium N -body simulation. We present a comparison of its predictions not only with these conditional mass functions, but also with additional statistics of the Millennium Simulation halo merger histories. In all cases, we find it to be in good agreement with the Millennium Simulation and thus it should prove to be a very useful tool for semi-analytic models of galaxy formation and for modelling hierarchical structure formation in general. We have made our merger tree generation code and code to navigate the trees available at http://star-www.dur.ac.uk/~cole/merger_trees .     

The statistical properties of Λ cold dark matter halo formation

We present a comparison of the statistical properties of dark matter halo merger trees extracted from the Millennium Simulation with Extended Press–Schechter (EPS) formalism and the related galform Monte Carlo method for generating ensembles of merger trees. The volume, mass resolution and output frequency make the Millennium Simulation a unique resource for the study of the hierarchical growth of structure. We construct the merger trees of present-day friends-of-friends groups and calculate a variety of statistics that quantify the masses of their progenitors as a function of redshift, accretion rates, and the redshift distribution of their most recent major merger. We also look in the forward direction and quantify the present-day mass distribution of haloes into which high-redshift progenitors of a specific mass become incorporated. We find that the EPS formalism and its Monte Carlo extension capture the qualitative behaviour of all these statistics, but as redshift increases they systematically underestimate the masses of the most massive progenitors. This shortcoming is worst for the Monte Carlo algorithm. We present a fitting function to a scaled version of the progenitor mass distribution and show how it can be used to make more accurate predictions of both progenitor and final halo mass distributions.