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1.
The paper presents an approach towards a medium-term (decades) modelling of water levels and currents in a shallow tidal sea by means of combined hydrodynamic and neural network models. The two-dimensional version of the hydrodynamic model Delft3D, forced with realistic water level and wind fields, is used to produce a two-year-database of water levels and currents in the study area. The linear principal component analysis (PCA) of the results is performed to reveal dominating spatial patterns in the analyzed dataset and to significantly reduce the dimensionality of the data. It is shown that only a few principal components (PCs) are necessary to reconstruct the data with high accuracy (over 95% of the original variance). Feed-forward neural networks are set up and trained to effectively simulate the leading PCs based on water level and wind speed and direction time series in a single, arbitrarily chosen point in the study area. Assuming that the spatial modes resulting from the PCA are ‘universally’ applicable to the data from time periods not modelled with Delft3D, the trained neural networks can be used to very effectively and reliably simulate temporal and spatial variability of water levels and currents in the study area. The approach is shown to be able to accurately reproduce statistical distribution of water levels and currents in various locations inside the study area and thus can be viewed as a reliable complementary tool e.g., for computationally expensive hydrodynamic modelling. Finally, a detailed analysis of the leading PCs is performed to estimate the role of tidal forcing and wind (including its seasonal and annual variability) in shaping the water level and current climate in the study area.  相似文献   

2.
In the paper two types of numerical models – a lumped-parameter model and a high-resolution two-dimensional hydrodynamic model – are used to analyse the response of a system of partially-connected tidal basins to inhomogeneous open sea forcing. The equations of the lumped-parameter model, suitable for an arbitrary number of basins with sloping walls, are formulated based on one-dimensional continuity and momentum equations. Numerical solutions to the equations are thoroughly examined, showing the influence of inhomogeneous open sea forcing and of geometrical parameters of the basins on the tidal range and the water transport through the system, with particular emphasis given to inter-basin water exchange and cumulative water transport through basins boundaries. The results of the lumped-parameter model simulations for the tidal basins of the German Wadden Sea are successfully compared with the results of calculations with the two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, which is used to investigate in more detail circulation patterns and the influence of specific local features of inlet bathymetry on the hydrodynamic processes in the study area. The influence of wind on the basins response is discussed as well.  相似文献   

3.
Carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus flow networks, consisting of 59 compartments, were constructed for the Sylt-Rømø Bight, a large shallow sea in the German Wadden Sea. These networks were analysed using ecological network analysis. Each network depicts the standing stock of each component in the ecosystem, and the flows between them. The trophic efficiency by which material is utilised in the Bight increase from 3%, to 6% to 17% for C, N and P, respectively. The number of cycles though which these elements pass increase from 1 197 for carbon, to 414?744 and 538?800 for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively. The Finn Cycling Index, reflecting the amount of material recycled as a fraction of the total system activity, TST, increases from 17% for carbon, to 43% for nitrogen, to 81% for phosphorus. Other system level attributes such as the Average Path Length, the Average Internal Mutual Information, Relative Ascendancy, Relative and Normalized Redundancy, show an increase from the carbon to the nitrogen to the phosphorus networks. Phosphorus is tightly cycled over longer pathways than the other two elements, and also has the longest residence time in the Bight. Postulated differences between the behaviour of energy (or carbon) and biogeochemical networks in coastal ecosystems are evident from the results obtained from ecological network analysis.  相似文献   

4.
Understanding suspended particulate matter (SPM) dynamics in coastal waters is crucial to assess changes in coastal sediment budgets and biogeochemical fluxes. SPM dynamics are subject to various physical and biological factors and processes such as, e.g. tidal currents and aggregation which can be enhanced by extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) that are produced by algae and bacteria. It is still unclear how the different factors and processes interact and together determine SPM dynamics. To unravel the interacting processes and factors, we propose a new distribution-based modeling approach. Based on the derivation of explicit equations for size distribution characteristics of SPM such as the average radius, we derived a model of reduced complexity characterized by low initialization and parameterization effort as well as low computational cost. The proposed 0D model includes the processes of aggregation and fragmentation due to shear, aggregation due to differential settling, deposition, resuspension and tidal exchange, and describes the evolution of the SPM concentration in the water column linked by the settling velocity to the change of the mass average radius of the aggregate distribution. A systematic parameter variation for critical bottom shear stress of erosion, the size of resuspended aggregates, the fractal dimension, the collision efficiency, and the aggregate strength has been performed and compared to observations in the back-barrier basin of Spiekeroog Island in the German Wadden Sea. This analysis confirms the hypothesis that in winter biological influences on SPM dynamics are smaller compared to summer. This is mainly reflected by a significant shift in the various parameters. We hence conclude that biological control mechanisms have a much more quantitative relevance for SPM dynamics than currently represented by state-of-the-art SPM transport models.  相似文献   

5.
For more and more applications in coastal and offshore engineering, numerical simulations of waves and surges are required. An important input parameter for such simulations are wind fields. They represent one of the major sources for uncertainties in wave and surge simulations. Wind fields for such simulations are frequently obtained from numerical hindcasts with regional atmospheric models (RAMs). The skill of these atmospheric hindcasts depends, among others, on the quality of the forcing at the boundaries. Furthermore, results may vary due to uncertainties in the initial conditions. By comparing different existing approaches for forcing a regional atmospheric model, it is shown that the models' sensitivity to uncertainties in the initial conditions may be reduced when a more sophisticated approach is used that has been suggested recently. For a specific, although somewhat brief test period, it is demonstrated that an improved hindcast skill for near surface wind fields is obtained when this approach is adopted. Consequences of the reduced uncertainty in wield fields for the hindcast skill of subsequent wave modelling studies are demonstrated. Recently, this new approach has been used together with a regional atmosphere model to produce a 40-year wind hindcast for the Northeast Atlantic, the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. The hindcast is presently extended to other areas and the wind fields are used to produce 40-year high-resolution hindcasts of waves and surges for various European coastal areas.  相似文献   

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