Simulations of the Polar Field Reversals during Cycle 22

The revised Mount Wilson synoptic magnetic data for the period September 1987 through March 1996 are used as the basis of numerical simulations of the evolution of both the northern and southern polar magnetic fields during the reversal and declining phases of cycle 22. The simulations are based on numerical solutions of the flux-transport equation which involve, as parameters, the maximum meridional flow speed, v ₀, and the supergranule diffusivity, . By matching characteristics of the observed and simulated fields, such as the observed reversal times, the evolution of the net flux above 60 °, and the migration of the polar crown, empirical values of these parameters, i.e., v ₀=11 m s^–1,=600 km² s^–1, may be determined. Further, the observed decrease in the mean net flux above 60 ° during the late declining phase of cycle 22 can be simulated only by increasing the diffusivity to 900 km² s^–1. However, direct observations of the supergranule velocities yield values of the diffusivity of order 200 km² s^–1, and we show that the inclusion of a pattern of emerging bipoles in the simulations can increase the diffusion of these fields and that, together with a more realistic value of the diffusivity, it is possible to reproduce qualitatively the features of the observed polar field reversals.     

Observations of the Polar Magnetic Fields During the Polarity Reversals of Cycle 22

The Mount Wilson synoptic magnetic data for the period September 1987 through March 1996 are completely revised and used to provide polar plots of the solar magnetic fields for both hemispheres. This period, from Carrington rotations 1793 to 1906, covers the reversals of the polar magnetic fields in cycle 22. Comparison of our plots with the presently available H filtergrams for this period shows that the polarity boundaries are consistent in these two data sets where they overlap. The Mount Wilson plots show that the polar field reversals involve a complex sequence of events. Although the details differ slightly, the basic patterns are similar in each hemisphere. First the old polarity becomes isolated at the pole, then shortly thereafter, the isolation is broken, and the polar field includes unipolar regions of both polarities. The old polarity then reclaims the polar region, but when the isolation of this field is established for a second time, it declines in both area and strength. We take the reversal to be complete when the old polarity field is no longer observed in the Mount Wilson plots. With this criterion we find that the polar field reversal is completed in the north by CR 1836, i.e., by December 1990, and in the south by CR 1853, i.e., March 1992.     

High-resolution Studies of the Polar Magnetic Fields during Cycle 23

High-resolution mosaics of the solar polar magnetic fields have been constructed using individual magnetograms obtained with the video magnetograph of the Big Bear Solar Observatory, and the properties of these mosaics are demonstrated in this paper. The mosaics show selected regions of the polar fields on several days during the rising phase of Cycle 23, and are related to the global polar fields (i) by superposing the mosaic for a given day on to a full-disk SOHO-MDI magnetogram obtained on the same day, (ii) by plotting the mosaics in polar projection and using these to identify the approximate regions reported by the mosaics on the NSOKP polar synoptic plots, and (iii) by imposing the locations of the H filaments on to the mosaics in order to infer the neutral lines of the large-scale fields. We have studied the fine structure of the large-scale unipolar fields near the poles and, in particular, have constructed histograms of the magnetic field intensities within particular regions of the mosaics and, in this way, have estimated the ratios of the number of magnetic knots of opposite polarities within the unipolar plumes. We have also generated enlargements of the polar regions of the NSOKP daily magnetograms. These and statistical studies have shown that on days for which the BBSO mosaics are not available, the NSOKP enlargements may be used to study the high-resolution polar fields. Time-series of mosaics obtained over four-hour periods on September 6 and November 18 show that considerable evolution in the structure of existing flux knots and the formation of several new knots has taken place during these periods.     

Polar Coronal Structures and the Global Magnetic Field Evolution Through the Cycle

We compare the shape and position of some plasma formations visible in the polar corona with the cyclic evolution of the global magnetic field. The first type of object is polar crown prominences. A two-fold decrease of the height of polar crown prominences was found during their poleward migration from the middle latitudes to the poles before a polar magnetic field reversal. The effect could be assigned to a decrease of the magnetic field scale. The second type of object is the polar plumes, ray like structures that follow magnetic field lines. Tangents to polar ray structures are usually crossed near some point, “a magnetic focus,” below the surface. The distance q between the focus and the center of the solar disk changes from the maximum value about 0.65 R _⊙ at solar minimum activity to the minimum value about 0.45 R _⊙ at solar maximum. At first glance this behaviour seems to be contrary to the dynamics of spherical harmonics of the global magnetic field throughout a cycle. We believe that the problem could be resolved if one takes into account not only scale changes in the global magnetic field but also the phase difference in the cyclic variations of large-scale and small-scale components of the global field.     

The Mechanism involved in the Reversals of the Sun's Polar Magnetic Fields

Models of the polarity reversals of the Sun's polar magnetic fields based on the surface transport of flux are discussed and are tested using observations of the polar fields during Cycle 23 obtained by the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak. We have extended earlier measurements of the net radial flux polewards of ±60° and confirm that, despite fluctuations of 20%, there is a steady decline in the old polarity polar flux which begins shortly after sunspot minimum (although not at the same time in each hemisphere), crosses the zero level near sunspot maximum, and increases, with reversed polarity during the remainder of the cycle. We have also measured the net transport of the radial field by both meridional flow and diffusion across several latitude zones at various phases of the Cycle. We can confirm that there was a net transport of leader flux across the solar equator during Cycle 23 and have used statistical tests to show that it began during the rising phase of this cycle rather than after sunspot maximum. This may explain the early decrease of the mean polar flux after sunspot minimum. We also found an outward flow of net flux across latitudes ±60° which is consistent with the onset of the decline of the old polarity flux. Thus the polar polarity reversals during Cycle 23 are not inconsistent with the surface flux-transport models but the large empirical values required for the magnetic diffusivity require further investigation.     

Using Polar Coronal Hole Area Measurements to Determine the Solar Polar Magnetic Field Reversal in Solar Cycle 24

An analysis of solar polar coronal hole (PCH) areas since the launch of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) shows how the polar regions have evolved during Solar Cycle 24. We present PCH areas from mid-2010 through 2013 using data from the Atmospheric Imager Assembly (AIA) and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) instruments onboard SDO. Our analysis shows that both the northern and southern PCH areas have decreased significantly in size since 2010. Linear fits to the areas derived from the magnetic-field properties indicate that, although the northern hemisphere went through polar-field reversal and reached solar-maximum conditions in mid-2012, the southern hemisphere had not reached solar-maximum conditions in the polar regions by the end of 2013. Our results show that solar-maximum conditions in each hemisphere, as measured by the area of the polar coronal holes and polar magnetic field, will be offset in time.     

Effects of the Weak Polar Fields of Solar Cycle 23: Investigation Using OMNI for the STEREO Mission Period

The current solar cycle minimum seems to have unusual properties that appear to be related to weak solar polar magnetic fields. We investigate signatures of this unusual polar field in the ecliptic near-Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) for the STEREO period of observations. Using 1 AU OMNI data, we find that for the current solar cycle declining phase to minimum period the peak of the distribution for the values of the ecliptic IMF magnitude is lower compared to a similar phase of the previous solar cycle. We investigate the sources of these weak fields. Our results suggest that they are related to the solar wind stream structure, which is enhanced by the weak polar fields. The direct role of the solar field is therefore complicated by this effect, which redistributes the solar magnetic flux at 1 AU nonuniformly at low to mid heliolatitudes.     

Polar Coronal Holes During Cycles 22 and 23

The National Solar Observatory/Kitt Peak synoptic rotation maps of the magnetic field and of the equivalent width of the He i 1083 nm line are used to identify and measure polar coronal holes from September 1989 to the present. This period covers the entire lifetime of the northern and southern polar holes present during cycles 22 and 23 and includes the disappearance of the previous southern polar coronal hole in 1990 and and formation of the new northern polar hole in 2001. From this sample of polar hole observations, we found that polar coronal holes evolve from high-latitude (60° ) isolated holes. The isolated pre-polar holes form in the follower of the remnants of old active region fields just before the polar magnetic fields complete their reversal during the maximum phase of a cycle, and expand to cover the poles within 3 solar rotations after the reversal of the polar fields. During the initial 1.2–1.4 years, the polar holes are asymmetric about the pole and frequently have lobes extending into the active region latitudes. During this period, the area and magnetic flux of the polar holes increase rapidly. The surface areas, and in one case the net magnetic flux, reach an initial brief maximum within a few months. Following this initial phase, the areas (and in one case magnetic flux) decrease and then increase more slowly reaching their maxima during the cycle minimum. Over much of the lifetime of the measured polar holes, the area of the southern polar hole was smaller than the northern hole and had a significantly higher magnetic flux density. Both polar holes had essentially the same amount of magnetic flux at the time of cycle minimum. The decline in area and magnetic flux begins with the first new cycle regions with the holes disappearing about 1.1–1.8 years before the polar fields complete their reversal. The lifetime of the two polar coronal holes observed in their entirety during cycles 22 and 23 was 8.7 years for the northern polar hole and 8.3 years for the southern polar hole.     

The Global Solar Magnetic Field Through a Full Sunspot Cycle: Observations and Model Results

Based on 11 years of SOHO/MDI observations from the cycle minimum in 1997 to the next minimum around 2008, we compare observed and modeled axial dipole moments to better understand the large-scale transport properties of magnetic flux in the solar photosphere. The absolute value of the axial dipole moment in 2008 is less than half that in the corresponding cycle-minimum phase in early 1997, both as measured from synoptic maps and as computed from an assimilation model based only on magnetogram data equatorward of 60° in latitude. This is incompatible with the statistical fluctuations expected from flux-dispersal modeling developed in earlier work at the level of 7 – 10 σ. We show how this decreased axial dipole moment can result from an increased strength of the diverging meridional flow near the Equator, which more effectively separates the two hemispheres for dispersing magnetic flux. Based on the combination of this work with earlier long-term simulations of the solar surface field, we conclude that the flux-transport properties across the solar surface have changed from preceding cycles to the most recent one. A plausible candidate for such a change is an increase of the gradient of the meridional-flow pattern near the Equator so that the two hemispheres are more effectively separated. The required profile as a function of latitude is consistent with helioseismic and cross-correlation measurements made over the past decade.     

Long-Wavelength Observations of Jets from Polar Regions of the Sun

We report radio observations of enhanced emission associated with the extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) jets from polar coronal hole regions of the Sun, with the Gauribidanur radioheliograph (GRH). We have estimated the brightness temperature, electron density and mass of the ejected material. These jets were not accompanied by nonthermal radio bursts, particularly Type III events.     

Polar Ring Currents on the sun During a Polar Magnetic Field Reversal

We have studied the variations of the height of polar crown prominences according to daily observations of the Sun at the Kodaikanal Observatory (India) during 1905–1975. Polar ring filaments at latitudes 60°–80° are related to the polar magnetic field reversal. A double decrease of the height of polar ring filaments was found in the course of their migration from 40°to the poles. We estimated the limiting height of the equilibrium of polar ring filaments from the stability condition of a strong electric current. We found that the transition from large-scale to small-scale ring filaments reduces the critical height of the stability for the prominences. A model of an inverse-polarity filament was used.     

Observations of Polar Plumes with the Sumer Instrument on Soho

We present new observations of O vi 1032 Å line profiles in polar plumes, and inter-plume regions, on the disk and above the limb in the north coronal hole obtained with the SUMER (Solar Ultraviolet Measurements of Emitted Radiation) instrument on the SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) spacecraft. On 22 May 1996, a 5 x 5 arc min spectroheliogram was scanned above the north polar coronal hole with the entrance slit extending from 1.03 to 1.33 solar radii with 1.5 arc sec spatial resolution and ≈ 0.044 Å per pixel spectral resolution in the wavelength range 1020–1040 Å. Detailed plume structure in O vi 1032 Å can be seen extending beyond 1.3 solar radii, with intensities in the plume regions 10–50% brighter, but line widths 10–15% narrower, than the inter-plume regions. Possible explanations for this observed anti-correlation between line width and intensity in the plume and inter-plume regions are discussed. We conclude that the source of the high-speed solar wind may not be polar plumes, but the inter-plume lanes associated with open magnetic field regions of the chromospheric network.     

Evolution of Sunspot Characteristics in Cycle 23

The aim of this work is to present a statistical study of several parameters (variables) that define sunspot groups. These variables include maximum area, growth and decay times, as well as the evolution families, and solar-cycle phase the groups belong to. We classified group types based on the Zurich classification, which allows us to define a set of families based on their evolution patterns. The time variation of the area of a group was also studied, and a relationship between the maximum area and the growth and decay times was sought. Another study was carried out to find the correlation among different characteristics of the groups, as well as how the probability of a certain value of decay time can vary depending on morphological characteristics defined by these variables. Thus, a program based on a weight matrix combining the variables necessary to classify a group, together with the calculation of the probability for a specific event, has been produced. This approach allows us to predict the future behavior of a group from its historical evolution.     

Polar Coronal Holes During Solar Cycles 22 and 23

Data from the Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer (SWICS) on Ulysses and synoptic maps from Kitt Peak are used to analyze the polar coronal holes of solar activity cycles 22 and 23 (from 1990 to end of 2003). In the beginning of the declining phase of solar cycles 22 and 23, the north polar coronal holes (PCHs) appear about one year earlier than the ones in the south polar region. The solar wind velocity and the solar wind ionic charge composition exhibit a characteristic dependence on the solar wind source position within a PCH. From the center toward the boundary of a young PCH, the solar wind velocity decreases, coinciding with a shift of the ionic charge composition toward higher charge states. However, for an old PCH, the ionic charge composition does not show any obvious change, although the latitude evolution of the velocity is similar to that of a young PCH.     

Prediction of the Amplitude of Sunspot Cycle 23

A few prediction methods have been developed using the precursor techniques and are found to be successful. On the basis of geomagnetic activity aa indices during the descending phase of the preceding cycle, we have established an expression which predicts the maximum annual mean sunspot number in cycle 23 to be 166.2. This indicates that cycle 23 would be a highly active and historic cycle. The average geomagnetic activity aa index during the ascending phase of cycle 23 would be about 24.9, comparable to 22.2 and 24.8 in cycles 21 and 22, respectively. This further indicates that during the ascending phase of cycle 23 energetic two-ribbon flares will be produced so as to give rise to strong proton events.     

Properties of the Current 23rd Solar-Activity Cycle

The main properties of the current cycle match almost completely those of average-magnitude solar cycles, and some of the features of the current cycle may indicate a change in the generation mode of magnetic fields in the solar convection zone. In this case, the Sun enters a period of intermediate and weak cycles of solar activity (SA) in terms of the Wolf numbers, which may last for 50 to 100 years. This change may result in further pollution of the Earth's environment (near-Earth space) due to the unfavorable regime of removing cosmic garbage from low-Earth orbit, the substantial increase of the radiation background in near space (the weakening of interplanetary magnetic fields will result in an increased concentration of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere), and other, possibly unfavorable, consequences. The main development stages of the 23rd solar-activity cycle are the following: the minimum of the 22nd solar cycle, May 1996 (W*=8.0); the beginning of the growth phase, September 1997; the maximum of the smoothed relative sunspot number, April, 2000; the global polarity reversal of the general solar magnetic field, July to December 2000; the secondary maximum of the relative sunspot number, November 2001; the maximum of the 10.7-cm radio flux, February 2002; the phase of the cycle maximum, October 1999 to June 2002; the beginning of the decrease phase, July 2002; the most powerful flare events of the current cycle, October to November 2003; and the likely point of minimum of the current SA cycle, November to December 2006.     

Cycle 23 Variation in Solar Flare Productivity

The NOAA listings of solar flares in cycles 21?–?24, including the GOES soft X-ray magnitudes, enable a simple determination of the number of flares each flaring active region produces over its lifetime. We have studied this measure of flare productivity over the interval 1975?–?2012. The annual averages of flare productivity remained approximately constant during cycles 21 and 22, at about two reported M- or X-flares per region, but then increased significantly in the declining phase of cycle 23 (the years 2004?–?2005). We have confirmed this by using the independent RHESSI flare catalog to check the NOAA events listings where possible. We note that this measure of solar activity does not correlate with the solar cycle. The anomalous peak in flare productivity immediately preceded the long solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24.     

第22和23太阳周太阳活动预测

本文首先分析指出第22太阳周前半周的太阳活动所具有的特点:(1)有最高的起始极小值;(2)上升速度快;(3)升段时间最短;(4)峰期长,可能有双峰;(5)个别时段活动水平极高.然后对第22周后半周的活动情况做了预计:在后半周将可能观测到大约2800个活动区,28000个耀斑,210个X级X射线爆发和大约80次太阳质子事件.最后,应用本文给出的太阳周参量关系式.预报第23周太阳黑子数月均平滑值的峰值为119,位于2001.6年.