Time-dependent Inversion of Surface Subsidence due to Dynamic Reservoir Compaction

We introduce a novel, time-dependent inversion scheme for resolving temporal reservoir pressure drop from surface subsidence observations (from leveling or GPS data, InSAR, tiltmeter monitoring) in a single procedure. The theory is able to accommodate both the absence of surface subsidence estimates at sites at one or more epochs as well as the introduction of new sites at any arbitrary epoch. Thus, all observation sites with measurements from at least two epochs are utilized. The method uses both the prior model covariance matrix and the data covariance matrix, which incorporates the spatial and temporal correlations between model parameters and data, respectively. The incorporation of the model covariance implicitly guarantees smoothness of the model estimate, while maintaining specific geological features like sharp boundaries. Taking these relations into account through the model covariance matrix enhances the influence of the data on the inverted model estimate. This leads to a better defined and interpretable model estimate. The time-dependent aspect of the method yields a better constrained model estimate and makes it possible to identify non-linear acceleration or delay in reservoir compaction. The method is validated by a synthetic case study based on an existing gas reservoir with a highly variable transmissibility at the free water level. The prior model covariance matrix is based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the geological uncertainty in the transmissibility.     

Disentangling Shallow and Deep Processes Causing Surface Movement

Understanding and predicting surface movement is important both technically and for social reasons. The shallow processes contributing to subsidence include construction works, peat oxidation, clay compaction, and groundwater withdrawal; deep causes are hydrocarbon and salt production. We describe an inversion procedure we have devised to disentangle the deep and shallow causes of surface movement. It employs a Bayesian inversion scheme, using forward models and other ‘a priori’ information about shallow and deep compaction. Parameter estimation thus takes place at two different depths, thereby disentangling the deep and shallow compaction processes responsible for surface movement. The uncertainty in the surface measurements and ‘a priori’ estimates is naturally incorporated. Furthermore, spatial and temporal correlations can be taken into account through inclusion of the covariance matrix. The inversion scheme is demonstrated for two synthetic cases. The first combines a compacting gas field and a compacting shallow peat layer. We demonstrate that assumptions on the shape of the subsidence bowl are not necessary. We also show how neglecting either deep or shallow causes of subsidence can produce spurious results. The advantage of using the ‘a priori’ estimates of the compaction and the covariance matrix obtained by Monte Carlo simulations is demonstrated with a second synthetic example involving two polders and different depths of their water table. A robust solution is obtained for each polder unit, while a simpler (and faster) ‘a priori’ estimate based on the expected average clay thickness fails to reproduce the actual compaction. Monte Carlo simulations can also be applied to compaction in depleting gas reservoirs. Information on spatial correlations is often available, even when the absolute values of the ‘a priori’ compaction data are quite uncertain. Explicitly incorporating such ‘a priori’ known spatial correlations improves the result significantly.     

山区谷底沉陷预测模型及其参数反演

我国西部地区地势复杂,沟壑纵横,地下开采极易导致边坡失稳,引发采动滑坡。在地下采动沉降与滑坡体挤压上升的叠加影响下,谷底区域地表沉降值明显小于类似地质采矿条件下的平原地区。为准确预测山区谷底区域地表沉降值,基于简支梁的弹性变形理论,并借助概率密度函数建立了山区谷底区域地表沉陷预计修正模型,明确模型参数物理意义及其取值方法。依据修正模型,以实测值和预测值之差平方和最小为原则构建适应值函数,基于模拟退火粒子群算法提出新的模型参数反演方法,借助MATLAB语言编制了相应的参数反演程序。最后将研究成果应用于山西某矿,得到谷底区域预测结果中误差为73 mm,与实测值基本一致,取得了较好的工程实践效果。     

砂岩压实作用的计算机模拟及对储层物性的预测研究

通过分析学者Buryakovsky等所建立的比较成熟的沉积岩压实过程的数学模型,结合国内学者提出的砂岩压实过程的各种影响因素,应用计算机编程、根据实例数据,最终得到了比较满意的模拟结果,绘制出砂岩孔隙度、渗透率、密度随埋深的变化曲线。利用多项式拟合,建立了砂岩孔隙度、渗透率、密度与埋深的多项式方程关系式,对砂岩储层物性的预测起到了良好的指导作用。     

库车坳陷不同构造带沉降差异性及其对储层孔隙度的影响

利用回剥原理,采用盆地模拟技术,选择东、西两条剖面对库车坳陷不同构造带典型井的沉降史进行了对比研究。结果表明,克拉苏构造带早期相对深埋、晚期持续深埋,秋里塔格构造带早期浅埋、晚期快速深埋,前缘隆起带早期缓慢浅埋、晚期相对浅埋。库车坳陷不同构造带的构造活动和沉降差异性导致其储层孔隙度差异明显。这种沉降差异性反映出由北向南从克拉苏构造带到前缘隆起带储层经历的深埋时间和最大埋深由大变小,储层在埋藏过程中所受的成岩压实作用由强变弱、孔隙度由小变大。时间深度指数定量地反映了这种沉降差异性及其对孔隙度的影响。     

弹性波阻抗反演在煤层气储层预测中的应用

弹性波阻抗反演方法保留了地震反射振幅随偏移距或入射角变化的特征,能够获得更多、更敏感、更有效的数据,不但适合地层反演,还可进行储集层岩性反演。阐述了弹性波阻抗反演的基础理论及实现流程,通过对实际资料的反演,分析了其在煤层气储层预测中的应用特点。     

Estimation of soil compaction parameters by using statistical analyses and artificial neural networks

This study presents the application of different methods (simple–multiple analysis and artificial neural networks) for the estimation of the compaction parameters (maximum dry unit weight and optimum moisture content) from classification properties of the soils. Compaction parameters can only be defined experimentally by Proctor tests. The data collected from the dams in some areas of Nigde (Turkey) were used for the estimation of soil compaction parameters. Regression analysis and artificial neural network estimation indicated strong correlations (r ² = 0.70–0.95) between the compaction parameters and soil classification properties. It has been shown that the correlation equations obtained as a result of regression analyses are in satisfactory agreement with the test results. It is recommended that the proposed correlations will be useful for a preliminary design of a project where there is a financial limitation and limited time.     

Karst breakdown mechanisms from observations in the gypsum caves of the Western Ukraine: implications for subsidence hazard assessment

The term karst breakdown is employed in this paper to denote the totality of processes and phenomena of gravitational and/or hydrodynamic destruction of the ceiling of a karst cavity and of the overlying sediments. It refers not only to the existence of a surface subsidence (collapse) feature but, first of all, to the internal (hidden in the subsurface) structures that precede development of a surface form. This study reports and discusses the results of direct mapping and examination of breakdown structures in the gypsum karst of the Western Ukraine, at the level of their origin, i.e., in caves. The accessibility of numerous laterally extensive maze cave systems in the region provided an excellent opportunity for such an approach, which made it possible to examine the relationship between breakdown structures and particular morphogenetic or geological features in caves, and to reveal stages of breakdown development. It is found that breakdown is initiated mainly at specific speleogenetically or geologically weakened localities, which classify into a few distinct types. The majority of breakdowns, which are potent to propagate through the overburden, relate with the outlet cupolas/domepits that represent places where water had discharged out of a cave to the upper aquifer during the period of transverse artesian speleogenesis. Distribution of breakdown structures does not correlate particularly well with the size of the master passages. Several distinct mechanisms of breakdown development are revealed, and most of them proceed in several stages. They are guided by speleogenetic, geological and hydrogeological factors. The study confirms that a speleogenetic approach is indispensable to the understanding of breakdown pre-requisites and mechanisms, as well as for eventual subsidence hazard assessment. Direct observations in caves, aimed both at speleogenetic investigation and breakdown characterization on regional- or site-specific levels, should be employed wherever possible.     

不同动力学机制共同制约下的储层压实效应特征——以塔里木盆地库车坳陷白垩系储层研究为例

在垂向压实和侧向压实的双重动力学机制叠加下, 库车坳陷白垩系碎屑岩储层展现出的压实效应, 无法用传统单一的垂向压实理论来解释.通过详实的成岩特征显微统计分析, 梳理出了垂向(埋深)压实和侧向(构造)压实分别对于研究层段的压实效应.研究层段的压实效应主要由垂向压实造成, 侧向压实造成的压实效应相对较弱; 侧向压实减孔量占总压实减孔量的比例并不与构造应力本身的大小呈明显的正比关系, 侧向构造应力施压的时间与储层垂向埋藏压实程度之间的时间配置关系、构造挤压应力的大小等因素严重制约着构造应力对于储层的侧向压实效应.     

有色反演技术在少井区岩性体预测中的应用

阐述了有色反演的基本原理,并给出了反演流程。通过模型试算,明确有色反演关键参数的物理意义及取值范围,并在孤南洼陷实际工区应用,较好地刻画出沙三下早期低位扇体的横向展布范围。与常规地震属性相比,反演结果更加符合沉积规律,与实钻井岩性分布情况吻合程度高。表明有色反演在保留地震数据原始现象的基础上,分辨率明显提高,适合无井或少井区的地层或岩性解释。     

弹性参数直接反演技术在储层流体识别中的应用

叠前地震反演是目前应用于流体识别的主要技术,但在具体研究区储层地质地震特点的应用过程中,存在岩石物理基础研究薄弱、多解性等问题。为提高流体地震识别精度,以KD地区为例,开展了陆相碎屑岩典型储层的岩石物理基础、叠前地震反演技术研究及应用。利用河道砂岩实验室岩石物理测试数据,分析了岩性、物性及孔隙流体对岩石物理参数的影响;基于弹性阻抗方程,通过弹性参数直接反演获取对储层流体敏感的参数,对KD地区河道砂岩储层进行了流体识别,提高了流体地震识别精度,取得了较好的地质效果。     

3D geomechanical modeling and estimating the compaction and subsidence of Fahlian reservoir formation (X-field in SW of Iran)

A geomechanical model can reveal the mechanical behavior of rocks and be used to manage the reservoir programs in a better mode. Fluid pressure will be reduced during hydrocarbon production from a reservoir. This reduction of pressure will increase the effective stress due to overburden sediments and will cause porous media compaction and surface subsidence. In some oil fields, the compacting reservoir can support oil and gas production. However, the phenomena can also cause the loss of wells and reduced production and also cause irreparable damage to the surface structures and affect the surrounding environment. For a detailed study of the geomechanical behavior of a hydrocarbon field, a 3D numerical model to describe the reservoir geomechanical characteristics is essential. During this study, using available data and information, a coupled fluid flow-geomechanic model of Fahlian reservoir formation in X-field in SW of Iran was constructed to estimate the amount of land subsidence. According to the prepared model, in this field, the maximum amount of the vertical stress is 110 MPa and the maximum amount of the horizontal stress is 94 MPa. At last, this model is used for the prediction of reservoir compaction and subsidence of the surface. The maximum value of estimated ground subsidence in the study equals to 29 mm. It is considered that according to the obtained values of horizontal and vertical movement in the wall of different wells, those movements are not problematic for casing and well production and also the surrounding environment.     

Lagoon subsidence and tsunami on the West Coast of New Zealand

Sediment core and trench data from a coastal lagoon on the West Coast of the South Island, New Zealand are used to investigate evidence for co-seismic subsidence and associated tsunami inundation. Physical data are used to document a salt marsh soil buried  80 cm below the modern sediment surface that is locally covered by a gravelly sand bed. The sediment record also contains geochemical and biological (diatom and foram) evidence for abrupt changes in salinity of lagoon waters that link to subsidence, tsunami flooding and to the open versus closed state of the lagoon tidal entrance. At the local scale, these relationships allow for separation of tsunami evidence from other agents of environmental change in the lagoon. We also propose a conceptual connection between these local changes and regional drivers of landscape development, most notably major earthquakes and resultant pulses in sediment supply to the coast.     

Numerical and experimental studies of the mechanical behaviour for compaction grouted soil nails in sandy soil

A model test was conducted for a newly developed soil nail, the result of which was compared to that of a 3D finite element method (FEM) simulation. The shape angle (β) and friction coefficients (μ) contributed to the difference in pull-out force between the model test and the simulation. Further verifications were conducted, during which the pull-out mechanisms of the soil nail for different β and μ were analysed. It was found that both β and μ have a positive influence on the pull-out force; β only affects the increase rate, while μ influences the overall pull-out force level. Three components were found to govern the pull-out force, with the component applied to the expanded cement bulk surface accounting for approximately 80% of the total. This study proves that the optimal approach for increasing pull-out force is to enlarge the diameter of the cement bulk rather than extend the nail length.     

Influence of time, temperature, confining pressure and fluid content on the experimental compaction of spherical grains

Theoretical models of compaction processes, such as for example intergranular pressure-solution (IPS), focus on deformation occurring at the contacts between spherical grains that constitute an aggregate. In order to investigate the applicability of such models, and to quantify the deformation of particles within an aggregate, isostatic experiments were performed in cold-sealed vessels on glass sphere aggregates at 200 MPa confining pressure and 350 °C with varying amounts of fluid. Several runs were performed in order to investigate the effects of time, fluid content, pressure and temperature, by varying one of these parameters and holding the others fixed. In order to compare the aggregates with natural materials, similar experiments were also performed using quartz sand instead of glass spheres. Experiments with quartz show evidence of IPS, but the strain could not be quantified. Experiments with glass spheres show evidence of several types of deformation processes: both brittle (fracturing) and ductile (plastic flow and fluid-enhanced deformation, such as IPS). In experiments with a large amount of water (≥ 5 vol.%), dissolution and recrystallization of the glass spheres also occurred, coupled with crystallization of new material filling the initial porosity. Experiments performed with a fluid content of less than 1 vol.% indicate creep behavior that is typical of glass deformation, following an exponential law. These experiments can also be made to fit a power law for creep, with a stress exponent of n = 10.5 ± 2.2 in both dry and wet experiments. However, the pre-factor of the power law creep increases 5 times with the addition of water, showing the strong effect of water on the deformation rate. These simple and low-cost experiments provide new insights on the rheology of soda-lime glass, which is used in analogue experiments, and of glass-bearing rocks under mid-crustal P–T conditions. They also highlight the strong enhancement of plasticity of natural rocks in presence of fluid or of a glassy phase.     

Monitoring ground subsidence induced by salt mining in the city of Tuzla (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Salt mining induced ground subsidence is a major hazard in the city of Tuzla (Northeastern sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina) and its surroundings since 1950, when solution mining of salt deposits by boreholes began. An analysis of the large (and never before processed) amount of topographical data collected during two periods: from 1956 to the Balkan War, and from 1992 to 2003 has been made. The analysis reveals a cumulative subsidence as high as 12 m during the whole period, causing damage to buildings and infrastructures within an area that includes a large portion of the historical town. Human-induced subsidence, (with rates up to 40 cm/year in the most developed area), has been investigated to recognize the areas affected by the sinking phenomenon and to produce a subsidence hazard. The time series of topographical observations have been enlarged by conducting new surveys in the urban area by modern space-geodesy methodologies, such as static relative GPS (Global Positioning System) and high resolution satellite imageries. The GPS monitoring started in 2004 and detected a decrease in the subsidence rates to 20 cm/year related to the reduction of salt exploitation. There is close correlation between the average subsidence rate and the annual amount of salt extracted.     

A comparison of the Iberian and Ebro Basins during the Permian and Triassic, eastern Spain: A quantitative subsidence modelling approach

The Permian–Triassic sediments of the Iberian Plate are a well studied case of classical Buntsandstein–Muschelkalk–Keuper facies, with good sedimentological interpretations and precise datings based on pollen and spore assemblages, ammonoids and foraminifera. Synrift–postrift cycles are recorded in these facies, but there are only a few studies of quantitative subsidence analysis (backstripping method) and only a previous one using forward modelling for the quantification of synrift–postrift phases of this period.Here we present the results obtained by the quantitative analysis of fourteen field sections and oil-well electric log records in the Iberian and Ebro Basins, Spain. Backstripping analysis showed five synrift phases of 1 to 3 million years duration followed by postrift periods for the Permian–Triassic interval. The duration, however, shows lateral variations and some of them are absent in the Ebro Basin. The forward modelling analysis, assuming local isostatic compensation, has been applied to each observation point using one-layer and two-layer lithospheric configurations. The second one shows a better fit between observation and model prediction in a systematic way, so a two layer configuration is assumed for the sedimentary basin filling analysis. Lithospheric stretching factors β and δ obtained in the forward modelling analysis are never higher than 1.2, but sometimes β < 1 and simultaneously δ > 1 in the same section. If surficial extension is compensated by deep compression either at the roots of the rift basins or in far-away zones is not yet clear, but this anomaly can be explained using a simple shear extensional model for the Iberian and Ebro basins.     

Uplift and subsidence from oblique slip: the Ganos–Marmara bend of the North Anatolian Transform, western Turkey

Bends that locally violate plate-motion-parallel geometry are common structural elements of continental transform faults. We relate the vertical component of crustal motion in the western Marmara Sea region to the NNW-pointing 18° bend on the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF-N) between the Ganos segment, which ruptured in 1912, and the central Marmara segment, a seismic gap. Crustal shortening and uplift on the transpressive west side of the bend results in the Ganos Mountain; crustal extension and subsidence on the transtensional east side produce the Tekirdağ Basin. We propose that this vertical component of deformation is controlled by oblique slip on the non-vertical north-dipping Ganos and Tekirdağ segments of the North Anatolian Fault. We compare Holocene with Quaternary structure across the bend using new and recently published data and conclude the following. First, bend-related vertical motion is occurring primarily north of the NAF-N. This suggests that this bend is fixed to the Anatolian side of the fault. Second, current deformation is consistent with an antisymmetric pattern centered at the bend, up on the west and down on the east. Accumulated deformation is shifted to the east along the right-lateral NAF-N, however, leading to locally opposite vertical components of long- and short-term motion. Uplift has started as far west as the landward extension of the Saros trough. Current subsidence is most intense close to the bend and to the Ganos Mountain, while the basin deepens gradually from the bend eastward for 28 km along the fault. The pattern of deformation is time-transgressive if referenced to the material, but is stable if referenced to the bend. The lag between motion and structure implies a 1.1–1.4 Ma age for the basin at current dextral slip rate (2.0–2.5 cm/year). Third, the Tekirdağ is an asymmetric basin progressively tilted down toward the NAF-N, which serves as the border fault. Progressive tilt suggests that the steep northward dip of the fault decreases with depth in a listric geometry at the scale of the upper crust and is consistent with reactivation of Paleogene suture-related thrust faults. Fourth, similar thrust-fault geometry west of the bend can account for the Ganos Mountain anticline/monocline as hanging-wall-block folding and back tilting. Oblique slip on a non-vertical master fault may accommodate transtension and transpression associated with other bends along the NAF and other continental transforms.     

The Cenozoic evolution of the Roer Valley Rift System integrated at a European scale

The Roer Valley Rift System (RVRS) is located between the West European rift and the North Sea rift system. During the Cenozoic, the RVRS was characterized by several periods of subsidence and inversion, which are linked to the evolution of the adjacent rift systems. Combination of subsidence analysis and results from the analysis of thickness distributions and fault systems allows the determination of the Cenozoic evolution and quantification of the subsidence. During the Early Paleocene, the RVRS was inverted (Laramide phase). The backstripping method shows that the RVRS was subsequently mainly affected by two periods of subsidence, during the Late Paleocene and the Oligocene–Quaternary time intervals, separated by an inversion phase during the Late Eocene. During the Oligocene and Miocene periods, the thickness of the sediments and the distribution of the active faults reveal a radical rotation of the direction of extension by about 70–80° (counter clockwise). Integration of these results at a European scale indicates that the Late Paleocene subsidence was related to the evolution of the North Sea basins, whereas the Oligocene–Quaternary subsidence is connected to the West European rift evolution. The distribution of the inverted provinces also shows that the Early Paleocene inversion (Laramide phase) has affected the whole European crust, whereas the Late Eocene inversion was restricted to the southern North Sea basins and the Channel area. Finally, comparison of these deformations in the European crust with the evolution of the Alpine chain suggests that the formation of the Alps has controlled the evolution of the European crust since the beginning of the Cenozoic.     

Intrusion and its implication for subsidence: A case from the Baiyun Sag, on the northern margin of the South China Sea

We develop a series of simple numerical models to explain the anomalous subsidence and deposition phenomena on the northern continental margin of the South China Sea, in particular in the Baiyun Sag. The results suggest that a short-period high rate deposition of around 17 Ma is related to a rapid subsidence event, which may be due to episodic emplacement of a dense intrusion. Necking and gravity models indicate that in the basement of the Baiyun Sag, there is a dense zone that is 100–200 kg/m³ more dense than the surrounding country rock. Considering its high magnetic intensity and regional igneous activity, the dense zone is thought to be related to a phase of basalt intrusion that may have taken place around 17 Ma. Thermal and subsidence models indicate that a hot denser intrusion can cause significant subsidence immediately after the intrusion. The subsidence rate then slows down with cooling, thus becoming consistent with the observed subsidence curves at around 17 Ma. The results also indicate that the lithospheric strength under the Baiyun Sag is negligible, and that the high-velocity layer in the lowermost crust may be not an original part of the pre-rift crust. Instead, it is thought to be underplated intrusion emplaced at around 30 Ma when the continental margin broke up.