Climatic Change and Desert Vegetation Distribution: Assessing Thirty Years of Change in Southern Nevada's Mojave Desert

A major theme in physical geography and biogeography is understanding how vegetation changes across geographic gradients during climate change. We assess shifts in distributions of fifteen Mojave Desert plant species based on a 2008 resurvey of 103 vegetation transects that were established in 1979. We model changes in species distributions using Maximum Entropy (Maxent) with environmental and climate variables to predict probability of species’ occurrences. Climate during the ten-year period preceding the 2008 vegetation survey was 1.5°C warmer and 3 cm per year of precipitation drier than the ten years preceding 1979. Species inhabiting the highest elevations and strongly correlated with precipitation displayed areal reductions from 1979 through 2008.     

Sensitivity to climate change for two reptiles at the Mojave-Sonoran Desert interface

The high temperatures and extended droughts that characterize habitat for desert-living reptiles may already approach their physiological tolerances and so could put them at risk due to climate change. Here I examined climate change sensitivity for desert tortoises, Gopherus agassizii, and common chuckwallas, Sauromalus ater, two large-bodied reptiles that occur across the Mojave-Sonoran Desert interface. I employed the Mahalanobis D² statistic to model their niche spaces and then assessed climate-change sensitivity by altering climate variables along a gradient of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. While shifting climate variables, I held terrain and soils variables that otherwise define these species’ preferred habitat constant, providing a more realistic prediction of available niche space. Both reptiles’ modeled niches responded to climate change by shifting to higher elevations and increasingly away from their Sonoran Desert distribution. At moderate predictions of climate change (+2 °C, −50 mm precipitation) desert tortoises’ suitable habitat was reduced by nearly 88% in the Sonoran Desert portions my study area, and nearly 66% in the Mojave Desert regions. Under the same scenario chuckwallas lost nearly 92%, but increased 120% respectively. Within the context of climate change potential increases in drought frequency appear to present the greater challenge for these species.     

Monitoring ecosystem dynamics in northwestern Ethiopia using NDVI and climate variables to assess long term trends in dryland vegetation variability

Dryland ecosystems are highly vulnerable to environmental changes. Monitoring is vital in order to evaluate their response to fluctuating rainfall and temperature patterns for long-term ecosystem safeguarding. Monitoring of long term changes of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and climate variables are fundamental for better understanding of change trajectories in dryland ecosystem, and to ascertain their potential interaction with anthropogenic drivers. In this study, we identify determinant factors of dryland changes by using MODIS NDVI, precipitation and temperature data for Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST) and Mann Kendall test statistic. BFAST predicts iteratively time and number of changes within a time series data to depict the size and direction of changes. Analysis of NDVI, precipitation and temperature time series data showed substantial changes during the study period of 2000–2014. There is a reduction trend in vegetation showed by the decline in NDVI, with significant breakpoints till 2009 and recovery afterwards, without a significant change in annual trends of precipitation (α < 0.05) for the same study period. Furthermore 2 positive climate trends were founded: a) a significant positive trend on long term annual rainfall during the main rainy seasons and; 2) a significant (α < 0.05) annual increment of the long term mean minimum and mean maximum temperature of 0.03 °C/year and 0.04 °C/year, respectively. This assessment showed that climate variables cannot be considered as the main factors in explaining the observed patterns of vegetation dynamics. Seasonal and interannual precipitation changes have a lower weight as driving factors for the reduction in vegetation trends. Hence, the decline in vegetation productivity of the region can be attributed to the increasing pressure of human activities.     

Current Trends in Climate Change in Yakutia

The spatial distribution patterns of climatic changes in Yakutia are considered. For 26 meteorological stations of Yakutia we calculated the linear trend coefficients of climatic characteristics: air temperature (mean annual, January and July temperatures) and the mean annual amount of atmospheric precipitation from 1966 to 2016. Maps of climate change trends were compiled from linear trend coefficients. A spatial analysis of the zonal (regional) peculiarities of the climate of Yakutia has been carried out. An increase in air temperature was established for the 50-year period under consideration. It was found that the annual values of the air temperature trend are positive and, on average, a characteristic trend change interval is 0.3 to 0.6 °C/10 yr. Most of the meteorological stations recorded trends of air temperature with maximum values in winter and minimum values in summer. It was determined that the values of the trends in annual precipitation show different directions, and positive trends occur on more than 70% of the territory of Yakutia. Their maximum corresponds to the mountain-taiga regions of Southern Yakutia. Negative trends in precipitation with values of up to–15 mm/10 yr. are observed in tundra landscapes. The findings show that different regions of Yakutia respond differently to climate change. The trend of an increase in mean annual temperature is largely due to the rise in temperatures during the winter months. The rise in air temperature in Yakutia may be part of global warming. Over the last 50 years there has been an increase in the amount of precipitation in Yakutia as a whole.     

The altitudinal distribution center of a widespread cushion species is related to an optimum combination of temperature and precipitation in the central Tibetan Plateau

Climate warming may threaten the survival of alpine cushion plants, which may have great implications for the stability of alpine ecosystems. However, little research has investigated the climatic causes of the altitudinal distribution of cushion plants. We hypothesize that for a widespread cushion species in semi-arid regions, there is a unimodal pattern of plant cover associated with an optimum combination of temperature and precipitation. We conducted a livestock exclosure experiment across the upper (5300 m) and lower (4430 m) limits of a widespread cushion species (Androsace tapete) along the south-facing slope of the Nyaiqentanglha Mountains during the period 2006–2010. The plant cover and survival across the fenced and unfenced quadrats were observed near weather stations at eight altitudes. There was a unimodal pattern in the coverage of A. tapete along the experimental gradient, which was confirmed by additional data from other species and mountains in this region. The coverage showed quadratic relationships with mean temperatures and the ratio of growing-season precipitation to the ≥5 °C accumulated temperature sum. Five-year monitoring data under fenced conditions demonstrated that the annual survival of A. tapete decreased away from the optimum distribution center. The results supported the hypothesis, suggesting a shift in the limiting factors of plant distribution between low and high altitudes.     

水热条件共同驱动新疆湿地植物丰富度空间分布格局

在地理空间尺度上,气候因素（如热量、降水量等）一直被认为是物种多样性的主要驱动因素。然而,气候因素能否解释湿地植物多样性格局仍不清楚。研究探讨了环境因素尤其水分和热量条件对湿地物种分布的影响,具体包括经度、纬度、海拔、年平均降水量、年平均气温、年平均蒸发量和年平均日照时数总计7个指标,研究对象涉及新疆3个二级流域的26处湿地公园,应用结构方程模型分析了各指标对湿地植物丰富度影响的相对大小及其相互作用关系。另外,还利用莫兰指数（Moran’s I）对各变量残差进行了空间相关性分析,以评估空间相关性的影响。结果表明：（1）结构方程模型总计解释了41.8%的物种丰富度变异,以年平均降水量对物种丰富度总效应最高,为0.47,其次是年平均日照时数,为-0.42,其中年平均降水量为正效应,年平均日照时数为负效应。其他各指标对物种丰富度的效应均不显著。（2）年平均降水量对植物丰富度的影响主要表现为直接效应,占总效应的92.86%,年平均日照时数对植物丰富度的影响主要是间接效应,占总效应的54.76%。（3）空间相关性分析表明年平均降水量和年平均日照时数的残差均不存在空间相关性,莫兰指数在-0.15～...     

An Early Pliocene lake and its surrounding vegetation in Zhejiang,East China

The palynomorph composition of an Early Pliocene assemblage from Du’ao Lake, Zhejiang Province, East China, including sporomorphs and algae, was analyzed to reconstruct the vegetation and climate around the lake, as well as the environmental conditions in the lake. A subtropical evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved mixed forest surrounding the lake is inferred from the pollen data. The composition of the green algae community indicates a clear, shallow (about 5–6 m deep), mesotrophic freshwater lake. The inferred pH was about 7.0–8.0 during the algae growing season. Applying the Coexistence Approach, the climatic conditions in Early Pliocene Du’ao were: (1) mean annual temperature ranged from 18.1 to 22.0°C, (2) difference in temperature between the coldest and warmest months ranged from 14.2 to 15.1°C, (3) mean temperature of the coldest month varied from 10.7 to 12.1°C, (4) mean temperature of the warmest month ranged from 23.5 to 25.4°C, (5) mean annual precipitation varied from about 994 to 1,255 mm, (6) minimum monthly precipitation ranged from about 9 to 11 mm, and (7) maximum monthly precipitation varied from approximately 219 to 245 mm. These values indicate that the Early Pliocene climate was subtropical.     

Interannual and seasonal variations in energy and carbon exchanges over the larch forests on the permafrost in northeastern Mongolia

The larch forests on the permafrost in northeastern Mongolia are located at the southern limit of the Siberian taiga forest, which is one of the key regions for evaluating climate change effects and responses of the forest to climate change. We conducted long-term monitoring of seasonal and interannual variations in hydrometeorological elements, energy, and carbon exchange in a larch forest (48°15′24′′N, 106°51′3′′E, altitude: 1338 m) in northeastern Mongolia from 2010 to 2012. The annual air temperature and precipitation ranged from −0.13 °C to −1.2 °C and from 230 mm to 317 mm. The permafrost was found at a depth of 3 m. The dominant component of the energy budget was the sensible heat flux (H) from October to May (H/available energy [R_a] = 0.46; latent heat flux [LE]/R_a = 0.15), while it was the LE from June to September (H/R_a = 0.28, LE/R_a = 0.52). The annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary production (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (RE) were −131 to −257 gC m⁻² y⁻¹, 681–703 gC m⁻² y⁻¹, and 423–571 gC m⁻² y⁻¹, respectively. There was a remarkable response of LE and NEE to both vapor pressure deficit and surface soil water content.     

Diatoms reveal complex spatial and temporal patterns of recent limnological change in West Greenland

Diatoms in sediment cores were analysed across a range of stratigraphic resolutions along a transect of 23 lakes spanning the ice-free margin of the west coast of Greenland (~67°N), to explore spatial and temporal patterns of recent (last ~150 years) environmental change in the region. These records display heterogeneous lake development trajectories over the last several centuries. Estimates of species composition turnover (beta-diversity) since 1850 AD are among the lowest for lakes in the Arctic, and are comparable to “unimpacted” reference lakes from temperate regions. Most of the change that occurred in West Greenland lakes pre-dates potential industrial anthropogenic effects, while post-1850 change is well within the natural range of variability for these systems. Nonetheless, a spatial pattern in core “top–bottom” changes is apparent across the transect: lakes in the arid interior of the region, adjacent to the ice sheet, and those with higher pH, register greater change than those in the more maritime climate of the coast. This suggests that climate plays an indirect role in the recent development of these lakes, and that recent anthropogenic forcing has not yet exceeded major ecological thresholds in this region.     

NDVI prediction over Mongolian grassland using GSMaP precipitation data and JRA-25/JCDAS temperature data

An algorithm to predict the NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) distribution over Mongolia, which is based on a stepwise multiple linear regression analysis, has been developed using global precipitation data obtained from satellites and global surface air temperature data obtained from the reanalysis data during the period 1998–2005. This algorithm can predict the NDVI value up to 1–3 months in advance for a grid with a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°.In order to validate the algorithm, the NDVI distribution was predicted for the period from May to November 2006 using 1 to 3-month prediction algorithms. The distributions of the predicted normalized anomalies agreed well with those of the observed normalized anomalies. It was found that these algorithms were effective for arid and semi-arid regions, despite its low accuracy for August and regions with high vegetation activity.     

Climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau during 1971-2000

Trends of annual and monthly temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspi-ration and aridity index were analyzed to understand climate change during the period 1971–2000 over the Tibetan Plateau which is one of the most special regions sensitive to global climate change. FAO56–Penmen–Monteith model was modified to calculate potential evapotranspiration which integrated many climatic elements including maximum and mini-mum temperatures, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind speed. Results indicate gen-erally warming trends of the annual averaged and monthly temperatures, increasing trends of precipitation except in April and September, decreasing trends of annual and monthly poten-tial evapotranspiration, and increasing aridity index except in September. It is not the isolated climatic elements that are important to moisture conditions, but their integrated and simulta-neous effect. Moreover, potential evapotranspiration often changes the effect of precipitation on moisture conditions. The climate trends suggest an important warm and humid tendency averaged over the southern plateau in annual period and in August. Moisture conditions would probably get drier at large area in the headwater region of the three rivers in annual average and months from April to November, and the northeast of the plateau from July to September. Complicated climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau reveal that climatic factors have nonlinear relationships, and resulte in much uncertainty together with the scarcity of observation data. The results would enhance our understanding of the potential impact of climate change on environment in the Tibetan Plateau. Further research of the sensitivity and attribution of climate change to moisture conditions on the plateau is necessary.     

新疆地区药用植物地理分布模式和气候特征研究

植物分布与区域气候有密切关系。新疆多样性地形地貌形成各具特色的区域气候特征,孕育了丰富的药用植物资源。依据新疆地区药用植物地理分布和区域气候两方面研究药用植物地理分布模式和气候特征,基于第三次中药资源普查数据得到新疆地区甘草、紫草、麻黄、肉苁蓉、枸杞等主要中药材空间分布图,并计算相关地区的物种丰富度和多样性指数。结果显示：新疆天山山脉地区药材种类丰富度最高,是新疆野生药材主要的分布区。同时,基于ArcGIS平台将年均温、年降水量等10个气象因子数据进行空间分类,得到气候因子数值在新疆地区的空间分布。新疆地区气候特征是以天山为分界线的南疆年平均温度和活动积温明显高于北疆,原因是天山山脉的屏障作用;降水与我国内陆格局不同,新疆降水量空间分布呈现东少西多格局;新疆最具特色的两个地区：一是伊犁塔城地区气候温和,雨量充沛,药材种类繁多;二是新疆南疆的喀什地区,较高的1月份最低温保证了植物的越冬需要,是植物栽培的必要条件。     

中国假木贼属(Anabasis)的地理分布及潜在分布区预测

基于最大熵模型（MaxEnt）和地理信息系统,结合中国假木贼属（Anabasis）7个种的地理分布记录及19个环境因子,预测这7个种的潜在分布区及该属的分布中心,并分析其主导环境因子。采用受试者工作特征曲线下面积作为模型预测准确度的衡量指标,刀切法用于评估各环境因子在决定潜在分布区时的贡献量。结果显示：（1）白垩假木贼（A.cretacea）、高枝假木贼（A.elatior）、毛足假木贼（A.eriopoda）、无叶假木贼（A.aphylla）、盐生假木贼（A.salsa）和展枝假木贼（A.truncata）的潜在适生区集中在新疆北部、天山南麓及塔里木盆地西侧,短叶假木贼（A.brevifolia）的潜在适生区在新疆、甘肃、宁夏和内蒙古的部分地区。（2）中国假木贼属的分布中心在新疆准噶尔盆地、天山南麓、塔里木盆地西侧及甘肃西北部的河西走廊。（3）在19个环境因子中,对中国假木贼属这7个种分布区预测贡献量较大的生态因子是年平均气温、最湿月降水量、最干季度平均温度、平均降水量、最冷季度降水量、年均温变化范围和最湿季度降水量。     

Critical conditions for successful regeneration of an endangered annual plant,Cryptantha minima: A modeling approach

Tiny cryptanthe (Cryptantha minima Rydb.) is an endangered annual plant adapted to prairie sand dunes of Canada. Thermal time and hydrothermal time models were used to quantify the effect of temperature and water potential on seed germination and to relate it to field conditions. Tiny cryptanthe seeds had a base temperature of ?3.9 °C for germination. Final germination percentage was highest at temperatures near the freezing point. Seeds required approximately 130.6 °C d to reach 50% germination under optimal water conditions. Seed germination was sensitive to water stress and large seeds had lower germination than small ones especially at reduced water potentials and higher temperatures. The high potential germination and low seed dormancy indicate that tiny cryptanthe lacks a dormancy mechanism, but the unique germination response to temperature enables it to fully utilize water from spring snowmelt before drought in the summer. Future climate change with higher temperatures could reduce regeneration success of this species unless there is an associated increase in winter and spring precipitation.     

Effects of grazing and climate change on species diversity in sandy grassland, Inner Mongolia, China

To understand the effects of animal grazing activities and climate change on sandy grassland vegetation in northern China, a field grazing and protected enclosure experiment was conducted from 1992 through 2006 in Horqin Sand Land, Inner Mongolia. The results showed that (1) the grazing was primary responsible for changes of the vegetation richness and diversity in the grazing grassland and that changing climate was the main reason for changes in the species richness and diversity in the grassland protected from grazing; (2) light and moderate grazing can promote restoration of the richness and the diversity in the degraded grassland, and heavy grazing could result in a decrease of the richness and diversity; (3) heavy grazing can result in significant decrease of the perennial diversity, and moderate and light grazing promotes increase of the perennial diversity; the grazing, whether heavy or moderate and light grazing, was beneficial to increase of the annual diversity; (4) heavy grazing was not beneficial to diversity of Graminean and Chenopodiaceae, and moderate and light grazing was favorable the diversity of Compositae and Chenopodiaceae; (5) the warm-humid climate was favorable to increase of the richness and the diversity, and the warm-drought climate could result in decease of the richness and the diversity; (6) increased precipitation was favorable to perennial diversity and the diversity of Graminean, Leguminosae, and Compositae, and decreased precipitation had few effects on the annual diversity and Chenopodiaceae diversity.     

Livestock responses to droughts and severe winter weather in the Gobi Three Beauty National Park, Mongolia

We investigated how both droughts and dzuds (severe winter weather) control livestock mortality in a non-equilibrium steppe ecosystem of Mongolia, Gobi Three Beauty National Park. These steppe ecosystems have developed under high interannual variability of rainfall and nomadic grazing systems. Interannual precipitation variation was 39%, with 128 mm mean annual precipitation. The effect of climate variability and extreme events on livestock mortality is a critical aspect for the Mongolian economy. Analysis of drought and precipitation variability on livestock mortality rate was not significantly influenced by the index of mean annual precipitation and annual winter temperature. Overall, unlike hot dry regions, pastoral livestock mortality in the cold dry regions was affected more by dzuds and annual growing seasonal rain than by droughts. Dzuds can be frequent events, occurring as often as once every 2 and 3 years within a decade. The average annual livestock mortality for the combined drought and dzuds years (18%) was 4.8% greater than the years with dzuds alone, and 7% greater than in years with only drought. Thus livestock mortality appears to be more sensitive to dzuds than to droughts, and that dzuds contributes more to livestock mortality even years where combined drought and winter storms occur.     

The projected impact of climate and land use change on plant diversity: An example from West Africa

In West Africa, plant diversity is threatened by future climate and land use change, however, synergistic forecasts for this area are lacking to date. We investigated the impact and the interplay of future (2050) climate and land use change on plant diversity in Burkina Faso, which covers the major bioclimatic gradient in West Africa. Thus, regions with different levels of species richness can be investigated. The LandSHIFT model was adapted for this study to derive novel future (2050) land use simulations. One-class support vector machines (SVMs) were performed with these land use simulations together with current and future (2050) climate projections at a 0.1° resolution. Our modeling results show that the flora of Burkina Faso will be primarily negatively impacted by future climate and land use changes. However, we found contrasting latitudinal patterns. The more humid regions in Southern Burkina Faso would be more affected in terms of species loss than the Sahel. Climate change is more important than land use change under the assumption of technological stagnation in the agricultural sector. Our results suggest that, in general, the plant diversity in dry and humid regions of the tropics might respond differently to climate and land use change.     

沙漠绿洲-高山冰雪气候带的垂直变化特征研究

气候变化在垂直方向上的分布规律是气候变化研究的一个重要方面。利用在天山北坡中部径向剖面上的6个不同海拔高度的气象站的气象资料,研究了沙漠绿洲-高山冰雪气候带在冬季、夏季和年度的年际气候变化对高度的响应,指出20世纪90年代(1991-2000)与前30 a(1961-1990)相比,平均气温、年降水量增加幅度随高度呈现非线性变化,不论在哪个高度上,冬季的增温幅度都要大于夏季;在最靠近沙漠的低海拔地区,年降水量增加幅度并不是最大的,而在海拔较高的山前绿洲地带和在3 500 m的高山区降水量增幅相对较大。此外,对气温、降水、相对湿度、蒸发等气候因子的变化趋势倾向率进行了分析,比较了不同高度的线性倾向率,揭示了沙漠绿洲边缘至高山冰雪带的气候变化在垂直方向上的分布特征,表明不论在哪个高度上,冬季、夏季和年度的平均气温变化都具有上升趋势;在山前地带和高海拔山区,降水增加趋势相对明显;蒸发能力减弱,相对湿度增加。     

The impacts of sustained heavy grazing on plant diversity and composition in lowland and upland habitats across the Kamiesberg mountain range in the Succulent Karoo, South Africa

This study explored the impacts of sustained heavy grazing in six vegetation types across an altitudinal and rainfall gradient in the Kamiesberg mountain range in Namaqualand. The study was carried out across the fence separating the Leliefontein communal area and surrounding privately owned farms. The communal area has been stocked over decades at approximately twice the government recommended stocking rate, while adjacent privately owned farms have generally adhered to recommended rates. Plant community data were collected from 66, 0.1 ha modified Whittaker plots and analysed for diversity and compositional changes. Consideration of community-wide responses through NMDS ordination showed that heavy grazing did not result in the dominance of a few wide-spread, weedy species in communal areas. Species richness at the 0.1 ha scale was also not affected by different land use practices. However, there was a significant compositional shift away from large woody and succulent shrubs, and an associated increase in dwarf shrubs and herbaceous perennial plants on the communal areas. This shift was only evident on the sandy lowland habitats, while a reduction in perennial grass was recorded in the rocky upland habitats on the communal areas. Compositional shifts towards smaller and more ephemeral species in the communal area are indicative of a system more closely dependent on rainfall. This has implications for people's livelihoods in the region, particularly in light of predicted climate change.     

1961—2010年讨赖河山区径流变化特征及其驱动因素

以1961—2010年讨赖河山区气温、降水和径流资料为基础,综合运用线性趋势、距平百分比、重标极差、Mann-Kendall突变检测、小波变换和多元线性回归等多种数理分析方法,研究了讨赖河山区径流的年内和年际变化规律,并探讨了气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的影响。结果表明：径流年内分配极不均匀且呈单峰型分布,汛期径流占年径流的比重为62.11%。径流经历了“丰-枯-丰-枯”4次波动,在1984年发生由多到少的显著性突变,但整体呈不显著减少趋势且具有持久性。径流在22年准周期上振荡最为明显,经历了“少-多-少-多-少-多-少”7次循环交替,2010—2015年径流可能再次偏多。近50年来山区气温呈“稳定波动-快速上升”变化,降水量呈显著增加趋势,但山区降水转化为径流的比例减少。气温升高和降水量增加引起的蒸散发增加,同时气候变化和人类活动共同作用下的地表覆盖类型的变化均对径流变化产生影响。