Future landscapes of Switzerland: Risk areas for urbanisation and land abandonment

In Switzerland, the decreasing significance of agriculture has led to prominent processes of land abandonment in mountainous areas where the maintenance of open land relies on human intervention. At the same time, urbanisation in Switzerland is increasing at a rapid rate at the expense of other land use types, particularly open land agriculture. In spite of these observed trends, the extent and location of anticipated land-use changes for the coming 20 years remain unknown, as does the impact on landscape services. This research defines 5 scenarios of future land-use for Switzerland along axes of Globalisation to Regionalisation and Market-driven developments to high policy intervention. Using the Dyna-CLUE land use modelling framework we incorporate socio-economic and bio-geographical variables to model scenarios of land change for 2035. By identifying locations for key land use transitions which occur across several scenarios, we find that unless large scale policy interventions are made, large areas of the Swiss Plateau and Alpine valley bottoms face strong urbanisation and much of the mountainous pasture agriculture continues to face risk of abandonment.     

Fallow,labour and livelihood in shifting cultivation: implications for deforestation in northern Lao PDR

Shifting cultivation is often blamed for deforestation in tropical upland areas. Based on a case study of three villages in northern Lao PDR, this paper combines household surveys with a remote sensing based analysis of forest cover, covering the period 1989–1999, in order to analyse changes in shifting cultivation practices and livelihood strategies and the impact of these on deforestation. Due to population pressure and relocation of villages, easily accessed land is increasingly scarce and fallow periods have been shortened during the 1990s. A net annual deforestation of about 1% was found in the area during the study period. This deforestation rate reflects shorter fallow periods in secondary forests rather than encroachment on mature forests, which are not used for cultivation by the farmers in the three villages. Farmers rate scarce labour as a major constraint on shifting cultivation; nonetheless, a tendency towards lower labour input with shorter fallow periods is observed, contradicting conventional intensification theory. Livelihoods are diversifying through the establishment of plantations, cultivation of wet rice and adoption of animal husbandry, but given the socio-economic conditions in the area, shifting cultivation is likely to remain the most suitable farming system in the near future.     

The response of soil erosion and sediment export to land-use change in four areas of Europe: The importance of landscape pattern

The response of erosion and sediment export to past land-use change has been studied in four agricultural areas of Europe. Three of these areas were subject to land abandonment or de-intensification and one to intensification of land-use practices. Erosion and sediment yield were modeled using the WaTEM/SEDEM model, which combines the RUSLE equation with a sediment routing algorithm. Spatial relationships between the RUSLE C-factor (i.e. land-use) and other erosion and sediment export-determining factors (slope, soil erodibility and distance to rivers) were investigated, as these account for non-linearity in the response of erosion and sediment export to land-use change.Erosion and sediment export have decreased enormously in the de-intensified areas, but slightly increased in the intensively cultivated area. The spatial pattern of land-use change in relation to other erosion and sediment export-determining factors appears to have a large impact on the response of soil erosion and sediment export to land-use change. That the drivers of abandonment of arable land and erosion coincide indicates that de-intensification leads to a more favourable landscape pattern with respect to reduction of erosion and sediment export. This mechanism applies not only within the study areas, but also among the European study areas where the process of intensification of some areas and de-intensification of others might result in an overall decrease of erosion and sediment yield through time.     

北京市土地利用空间格局演化模拟及预测

土地利用空间格局的演化模拟可定量地从空间尺度揭示区域土地利用变化的驱动因素,是厘清未来时期内土地变化的重要途径。基于CLUE-S模型,以北京市为研究案例,结合1985、2000和2010年三期土地利用数据,运用Logistic逐步回归方法识别了北京市各种土地利用类型演化的驱动因素,对北京市土地利用空间格局进行模拟。在此基础上,基于北京市社会经济发展、土地利用规划、资源禀赋及生态保护等不同情景,对北京市2020年土地利用空间分布格局进行模拟及预测。结果表明：①不同的时期内,驱动因子对不同土地利用类型的影响呈现差异性,其中交通因素及社会经济因素对土地利用类型的转化率影响较显著,坡度对各个土地利用类型的影响较大。②通过对2010年北京市土地利用变化的模拟结果来看,Kappa指数为87.03%,说明预测结果与实际土地利用情况有较好的一致性。③预测结果显示,北京市的城市发展均表现为继续向外扩展,且以东南、东北为主要扩展方向,但扩张的程度存在差异。     

Land use dynamics and land cover structure change in Thailand (as exemplified by mountainous Nan Province

Changes in the land use pattern and in the land cover structure for the time interval 1995–2012 in Thailand are considered by using, as an example, Nan Province located in the northern mountainous part of the country. Interpretation of satellite images and vector data that were provided by the Land Development Department (Thailand) revealed the main directions of change in the region’s land use: deforestation, expansion of areas under crops, transition from slash and burn cultivation to permanent cultivation, and intensive utilization of agrochemicals. In spite of a decrease in the deforestation rate across Thailand in general, it is shown that for the period under review the proportion of natural forests in Nan Province decreased by nearly one half. On the other hand, the agricultural lands increased for the same period by more than 50%. The highest deforestation rates were recorded during 2009–2012. It was found that the changes in the land use pattern disturbed the existing centuries-old balance of man–natural environment interaction within the framework of the traditional system of slash and burn agriculture which is well adapted to local conditions. The study revealed the chief causes for such changes: an ineffective monitoring of forests; an unclear character of the boundaries separating lands of rural communities and protected territories, and possibilities for sales of commercial products (maize, cassava, etc.) cultivated in illegal fields. It is shown that rapid changes in land cover due to deforestation and plowing of mountainous areas for cultivation of commercial crops led to an intensification of slope processes (landslides and solifluction), an increase in overland runoff, and to an enhanced hazard of heavy floods during the monsoon season. To keep track of deforestation and deal with nature management conflicts requires a continuous monitoring of the land cover dynamics.     

中国省域耕地集约利用态势与驱动力分析

基于“理性小农”、超边际经济学等理论,建立了农户耕地集约利用解释的理论框架。构建了集约利用度指数 (CII) 和驱动力模型,分析了1996-2008年中国省域的耕地集约利用程度及其影响因素。研究结果表明：我国耕地利用集约度总体大幅度提高,但地域差异明显,初步形成了第一阶梯较高集约度、第二三阶梯较低集约度的空间格局;耕地集约利用的首要贡献来自于化肥、机械、农药等省工性劳动的大量使用,其次是资本投入和劳动力;耕地自然本底条件、耕地经济收益和劳动力生产率,与耕地集约度呈正相关,而耕地非农化效益与耕地利用集约度呈负相关。基于研究结论的政策引申：加强政策引导,科学合理使用非可再生能源等省工性劳动;切实改善农业生产条件,适度规模经营,提升劳动生产率和耕地综合生产力;提高耕地经营性经济补贴标准,激励农户稳定从事农业生产的积极性。     

Projecting land-use change processes in the Sierra Norte of Oaxaca, Mexico

The objective of study was to explore short-term trends of processes that determine land-use change in Sierra Norte of Oaxaca (SNO), Mexico. Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) were estimated in a complex mosaic of vegetation in the SNO from 1980 to 2000, and projected them to 2020 through a Markovian model. SNO is highly vulnerable to climatic change according to a 2050 GCM scenario. However, 3% annual rate of tropical and temperate forest deforestation from agriculture and livestock encroachment, suggest the threat from land-use change is higher than that from climatic change for this study site. Productive land-use strategies are needed to reduce such high deforestation rates for tropical regions. Controlling deforestation would also reduce short-term effects of CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere. Because of the necessity to evaluate anthropogenic ecosystem changes, it is imperative to separate short-term influences such as deforestation, from long-term influences such as climatic change.     

Spatio-temporal dynamics of regulating ecosystem services in Europe – The role of past and future land use change

Land use is a main driver for changes in supply and demand of regulating ecosystem services (ES). Most current ES inventories are static and do not address dynamics of ES supply resulting from historic and future land use change. This paper analyzes the role of land use change for the supply of two regulating services, flood regulation and climate regulation, in the European Union (EU) for the period between 1900 and 2000 as well as for four plausible scenarios of future land use change up to 2040. We show that spatio-temporal dynamics of climate regulation are high during this time period, and that future levels of climate regulation are higher than 100 years ago. For flood regulation, we show that increases in the demand over the past century, which are continued in the future scenarios, are the main contributor for spatial mismatches of supply and demand. Our results indicate that, in spite of land use change, the overall supply of the two regulating services is expected to be moderately stable, or to even increase in the coming decades. At the same time, demands for these services are rapidly increasing, and it is unlikely that projected supply is sufficient to meet these demands. The results also indicate that land use allocation that favors the supply of regulating services can be seen as a nature-based solution in which potentials for synergies between multiple ES can be operationalized.     

基于logistic回归模型的农牧交错区土地利用变化驱动力分析——以内蒙古翁牛特旗为例

本文以农牧交错带的典型区域——内蒙古翁牛特旗为例,考虑土地利用变化过程的空间变量,建立了不同土地利用变化过程的logistic回归模型。结果表明:模型中转为耕地的主要解释变量是到农村居民点的距离和农业气候区;转为草地的主要解释变量是到农村居民点的距离、土壤表层有机质含量和到乡镇中心的距离;转为林地的主要解释变量是到农村居民点的距离和海拔;空间异质性和土地利用变化过程的时间变量共同影响着使用logistic回归模型来解释土地利用变化驱动力的能力;通过对草地logistic回归模型的检验,得出空间统计模型能较好地揭示不同土地利用变化过程的主要驱动力及其作用机理。     

区域耕地动态变化及可持续利用评价——以河北省黑龙港地区为例

耕地作为土地中的精华 ,其动态变化及可持续利用无疑是影响区域可持续发展的关键问题。河北省黑龙港地区旱、涝、盐、碱灾害严重 ,是黄淮海平原水土资源条件最差的地区。近年来 ,随着经济发展和人口增长 ,人地矛盾日益突出 ,成为该区域可持续发展的一个关键问题。本文利用黑龙港地区近 5 0年耕地长序列统计资料和近 5年的土地详查数据 ,揭示了耕地数量变化的基本过程及其空间差异 ,并进一步对耕地资源利用的可持续性进行了评价。研究表明 ,近 5 0年来 ,黑龙港地区耕地数量呈明显的波动减少趋势 ,经历了由增加→急剧减→缓慢减少的基本变化过程 ,其中在 1 95 5～ 1 95 8年和 1 96 5～ 1 978年出现两次明显的耕地流失高峰 ;全区域耕地资源利用处于临界可持续 ,其综合指数为 48.2 5。     

Spatio-temporal analysis of land-use conversion in the eastern coastal China during 1996–2005

Based on the acquaintance of the regional background of urban-rural transforma-tional development and investigations on the spot, this paper discusses the holistic situation, dominant factors and mechanism of arable land loss and land for construction occupation in the coastal area of China over the last decade, with the aid of GIS technology. Conclusions of the research are summarized as follows: (1) the arable land had been continuously de-creasing from 1996 to 2005, with a loss of 1,708,700 hm2 and an average decrement of 170,900 hm2 per year; (2) land for construction increased 1,373,700 hm2, with an average increment of 153,200 hm2 per year; (3) total area of encroachment on arable land for con-struction between 1996 and 2005 was 1,053,100 hm2, accounting for 34.03% of the arable land loss in the same period, the percentages of which used for industrial land (INL), trans-portation land (TRL), rural construction land (RUL) and town construction land (TOL) are 45.03%, 15.8%, 15.47% and 11.5%, respectively; and (4) the fluctuation of the increase of construction land and encroachment on arable land in the area were deeply influenced by the nation’s macroscopic land-use policies and development level of regional economy. The growth of population and advancement of technology promoted the rapid industrialization, construction of transportation infrastructures, rural urbanization and expansion of rural set-tlements in the eastern coastal area, and therefore were the primary driving forces of land-use conversion.     

1996-2005年中国沿海地区土地利用转换时空分析

Based on the acquaintance of the regional background of urban-rural transforma- tional development and investigations on the spot, this paper discusses the holistic situation, dominant factors and mechanism of arable land loss and land for construction occupation in the coastal area of China over the last decade, with the aid of GIS technology. Conclusions of the research are summarized as follows: (1) the arable land had been continuously de- creasing from 1996 to 2005, with a loss of 1,708,700 hm2 and an average decrement of 170,900 hm2 per year; (2) land for construction increased 1,373,700 hm2, with an average increment of 153,200 hm2 per year; (3) total area of encroachment on arable land for con- struction between 1996 and 2005 was 1,053,100 hm2, accounting for 34.03% of the arable land loss in the same period, the percentages of which used for industrial land (INL), trans- portation land (TRL), rural construction land (RUL) and town construction land (TOL) are 45.03%, 15.8%, 15.47% and 11.5%, respectively; and (4) the fluctuation of the increase of construction land and encroachment on arable land in the area were deeply influenced by the nation's macroscopic land-use policies and development level of regional economy. The growth of population and advancement of technology promoted the rapid industrialization, construction of transportation infrastructures, rural urbanization and expansion of rural set- tlements in the eastern coastal area, and therefore were the primary driving forces of land-use conversion.     

Quantifying successional land cover after clearing of tropical rainforest along forest frontiers in the Congo Basin

State-of-the-art impact-modeling studies in environmental and climatological sciences require detailed future deforestation scenarios that allow forest to be replaced by a mosaic of multiple successional land-cover types, rather than the simple conversion of forest to a single land-cover type, such as bare soil or cropland. Therefore, not only the amount and location of forest removal has to be known (as is typically provided by scenarios), but also knowledge about the successional land-cover types and their relative areal proportions is needed. The main objective of this study was to identify these successional land-cover types and quantify their areal proportions in regions deforested during the past 37 years around the city of Kisangani, D.R. Congo. The fallow vegetation continuum was categorized in different stages, adapted from existing classifications. Ground-truth points describing the present-day vegetation were obtained during a field campaign and used for supervised and validated land-cover classification of these categories, using the Landsat image of 2012. Areal proportions of successional land-cover types were then derived from the resulting land-cover map. The second objective of this study was to relate these areal proportions to time since deforestation, which is expected to influence fallow landscapes. Landsat images of 1975, 1990, and 2001 were analyzed. Present-day mature tree fallow is less abundant on areas deforested during 1975–1990. The relative areal proportions were used to refine a deforestation scenario and apply it to existing data-sets of LAI and canopy height (CH). Assuming a simple conversion of forest to cropland, the deforestation scenario projected a reduction of grid-cell-averaged CH from 25.5 to 7.5 m (within deforested cells), whereas the refined scenarios that we propose show more subtle changes, with a reduced CH of 13 m. This illustrates the importance of taking successional land cover correctly into account in environmental and climatological modeling studies.     

Monitoring directions and rates of change in trees outside forests through multitemporal analysis of map sequences

This study explores the potential of historical maps to detect, measure and monitor changes of trees outside forests. The main goal is to assess local-level changes of scattered trees and orchards and their land-use determinants in two areas in Southern Germany between 1901/1905 and 2009. Firstly, overall landscape changes are recorded. Secondly, the spatial-temporal trajectories of scattered trees and their land-use determinants are identified. Thirdly, changes in quantity and fragmentation patterns of traditional orchards are analyzed in their relationship to overall land-cover change. The results confirm major losses in scattered trees, mainly due to urbanization, agricultural intensification, and land abandonment. They further reveal that, while orchards have persisted in total area, they have undergone critical changes toward a simplified landscape structure and loss of the traditional land-use mosaic, which is a characterizing feature of high nature value landscapes. Multi-temporal assessment showed that most trends have been continuous and did not change directions over time, but rather accelerated during periods of rapid change (most dramatically in the 1950-1990 period). The case of orchards and scattered trees illustrates a major problem of cultural landscapes in Europe: Semi-natural landscape features of high nature value are threatened by both intensification and abandonment of land uses. This makes their conservation a potentially costly enterprise, as both opportunity costs for lost alternative land uses and for conservation management costs arise.     

Evaluating drivers of land-use change and transition potential models in a complex landscape in Southern Mexico

Understanding and analysis of drivers of land-use and -cover change (LUCC) is a requisite to reduce and manage impacts and consequences of LUCC. The aim of the present study is to analyze drivers of LUCC in Southern Mexico and to see how these are used by different conceptual and methodological approaches for generating transition potential maps and how this influences the effectiveness to produce reliable LUCC models. Spatial factors were tested for their relation to main LUCC processes, and their importance as drivers for the periods 1993–2002 and 2002–2007 was evaluated by hierarchical partitioning analysis and logistic regression models. Tested variables included environmental and biophysical variables, location measures of infrastructure and of existing land use, fragmentation, and demographic and social variables. The most important factors show a marked persistence over time: deforestation is mainly driven by the distance of existing land uses; degradation and regeneration by the distance of existing disturbed forests. Nevertheless, the overall number of important factors decreases slightly for the second period. These drivers were used to produce transition potential maps calibrated with the 1993–2002 data by two different approaches: (1) weights of evidence (WoE) to represent the probabilities of dominant change processes, namely deforestation, forest degradation, and forest regeneration for temperate and tropical forests and (2) logistic RM that show the suitability regarding the different land-use and -cover (LUC) classes. Validation of the transition potential maps with the 2002–2007 data indicates a low precision with large differences between LUCC processes and methods. Areas of change evaluated by difference in potential showed that WoE produce transition potential maps that are more accurate for predicting LUCC than those produced with RM. Relative operating characteristic (ROC) statistics show that transition potential models based on RM do usually better predict areas of no change, but the difference is rather small. The poor performance of maps based on RM could be attributed to their too general representation of suitability for certain LUC classes when the goal is modeling complex LUCC and the LUC classes participate in several transitions. The application of a multimodel approach enables to better understand the relations of drivers to LUCC and the evaluation of model calibration based on spatial explanatory factors. This improved understanding of the capacity of LUCC models to produce accurate predictions is important for making better informed policy assessments and management recommendations to reduce deforestation.     

Green space planning and land use: An assessment of urban regional and green structure planning in Greater Copenhagen

Geografisk Tidsskrift, Danish Journal of Geography 106(2):7–20, 2006

In its Regional Plan of 2005, The Greater Copenhagen Authority (abbreviated as “HUR” in Danish) places special emphasis on the future recreational values associated with the regional green structure. In this paper, the development of the urban green structure in Greater Copenhagen is elaborated upon, focusing on land use changes and the effectiveness of regionally coordinated planning measures. EU MOLAND data are used to analyse the development of the region's green structure during the period 1954 to 1998. Analysis of two “green wedges” within the green structure illustrates that the development of the green recreational areas is the result of both formal and more informal planning initiatives. Development has shown equal phases that correspond to the applied regional planning measures and the general economic conditions. However, local preferences in the involved municipalities likewise have played an important role and have resulted in different urbanisation pressure within the two wedges. Land use has transformed from an agricultural to a primarily recreational landscape. In some areas, however, urbanisation pressure has resulted in residential and green industrial areas instead of the planned recreational land use. Based on its historical development it is concluded that future preservation and development of the green structure in Greater Copenhagen requires regional planning measures to be incorporated into municipal plans. In this way the increasingly independent municipalities will comply to objectives of the Regional Plan 2005.     

Human-ignited wildfire patterns and responses to policy shifts

Development of efficient forest wildfire policies requires an understanding of the underlying reasons behind forest fire occurrences. Globally, there is a close relationship between forest wildfires and human activities; most wildfires are human events due to negligence (e.g., agricultural burning escapes) and deliberate actions (e.g., vandalism, pyromania, revenge, land use change attempts). We model the risk of wildfire as a function of the spatial pattern of urban development and the abandonment/intensity of agricultural and forestry activities, while controlling for biophysical and climatic factors. We use a count data approach to model deliberately set fires in Galicia, N.W. Spain, where wildfire is a significant threat to forest ecosystems, with nearly 100,000 wildfires recorded during a thirteen-year period (1999–2011). The spatial units of analysis are more than 3600 parishes. Data for the human influences are derived from fine-resolution maps of wildland–urban interface (WUI), housing spatial arrangements, road density, forest ownership, and vegetation type. We found wildfire risk to be higher where there are human populations and development/urbanisation pressure, as well as in unattended forest areas due to both rural exodus and a fragmented forest ownership structure that complicates the profitability of forestry practices. To better help direct management efforts, parameter estimates from our model were used to predict wildfire counts under alternative scenarios that account for variation across space on future land-use conditions. Policies that incentivize cooperative forest management and that constrain urban development in wildlands at hotspot fire locations are shown to reduce wildfire risk. Our results highlight the need for spatially targeted fire management strategies.     

北京城市空间发展和土地利用—伦敦经验启示

Beijing is facing a huge challenge to manage the growth of its built-up area whilst also retaining both productive arable land and land for conservation purposes in order to simultaneously realize the three aims of economic development,protecting arable land and generating environmental improvements. Meanwhile,London,as a world city with more than 200 years of industrialization and urbanization,has accumulated rich theoretical and practical experiences for land use planning in a major urban area,such as the creation of Garden Cities,a designated Green Belt and New Towns. This paper firstly analyzes the main characteristics of the spatial distribution of the built-up area,arable land and conservation land in Beijing. Then,some of the key aspects of urban fringe planning in the London region are examined. Lastly,several implications from the experience of London are provided with respect to land-use planning for Beijing,concentrating on a re-appraisal of land-use functions around Beijing,measures to improve the green belt,the development of small towns to house rural-urban migrants and urban overspill,and effective implementation of land-use planning.     

Urban spatial development and land use in Beijing: Implications from London’s experiences

Beijing is facing a huge challenge to manage the growth of its built-up area whilst also retaining both productive arable land and land for conservation purposes in order to simultaneously realize the three aims of economic development, protecting arable land and generating environmental improvements. Meanwhile, London, as a world city with more than 200 years of industrialization and urbanization, has accumulated rich theoretical and practical experiences for land use planning in a major urban area, such as the creation of Garden Cities, a designated Green Belt and New Towns. This paper firstly analyzes the main characteristics of the spatial distribution of the built-up area, arable land and conservation land in Beijing. Then, some of the key aspects of urban fringe planning in the London region are examined. Lastly, several implications from the experience of London are provided with respect to land-use planning for Beijing, concentrating on a re-appraisal of land-use functions around Beijing, measures to improve the green belt, the development of small towns to house rural-urban migrants and urban overspill, and effective implementation of land-use planning.     

江汉平原土地利用的时空变化及其驱动因素分析

采用遥感、GIS一体化技术,利用1989～1990、1995～1996和1999～2000年获取的三期陆地资源卫星图像,对江汉平原土地利用10年变化和以1995～1996年为界的前后两个5年变化的时空特征进行了分析,并探讨了变化的驱动因素。结果表明,该区的土地利用在不同的时间及空间尺度上有明显不同的特点。10年间,耕地减少近5万hm²,其中,前5年的减少量占多数,达6783%。各类建设用地总计增加了156万hm²,其中,前5年的增加量是后5年的2倍。水域面积在10年间增加了达到354万hm²,后5年的增幅不到前期的1/2。土地利用变化最快的区域均处于工业经济较发达、城市化较快的地区如武汉、仙桃,变化最慢的区域在监利、松滋、天门等地。政策、社会经济与科技因素对土地利用随时间尺度的变化有决定性的影响。