Learning where to offend: Effects of past on future burglary locations

Informed by a growing literature on space-time patterns of repeat and near repeat burglary victimization, a crime location choice model was used to test whether burglars are attracted to areas they previously targeted. Using data in 3337 detected burglaries from one UK police force, and accounting for the distance to the offender's residence, and for other factors that make target areas attractive to burglars, it was demonstrated that burglars were more likely to commit a burglary in an area they had targeted before. This was particularly the case if the prior burglary was (very) recent. Areas near to those in which burglaries had been committed were also more likely to be selected.     

社区环境对入室盗窃和室外盗窃影响的对比分析——以ZG市ZH半岛为例

社区环境的基本属性是影响城市犯罪的重要因素,而这两类犯罪相似的空间形态受社区环境哪些因素的影响及作用方式如何未探寻及验证。因此,本文结合日常活动理论、CPTED理论、可防卫空间等理论,以中国东南沿海地区ZG市ZH半岛为例,融合多源异构时空数据,利用偏最小二乘法,检验社区尺度下的建成环境和社会环境,对入室盗窃和室外盗窃的影响进行对比分析。研究发现：① ZH半岛内具有一定的规律性特征,即在建成环境背景下,入室盗窃的影响因素相对集中,而室外盗窃的影响因素较为分散;② 社会环境和建成环境对两类犯罪的影响及作用力存在着相对的共性和差异性,其共性主要表现在人口密度（-）、青少年人口比重（+）、公交站点密度（-）以及到主中心的距离（-）对入室盗窃和室外盗窃的发生都有显著的影响,且作用力方向一致;差异性主要体现在道路网络密度（-）、零售商业密度（+）和餐饮住宿密度（+）是影响室外盗窃发生的主要因子,而居民文化程度（-）显著影响入室盗窃的发生。研究结果的引申,可为社区层面的入室盗窃和室外盗窃的联合防控提供一些参考。     

A discrete spatial choice model of burglary target selection at the house-level

This article studies how burglars select a house to burglarize. We draw on the rational choice perspective to investigate how burglars select a target by relying on house-related attributes to optimize a combination of perceived rewards, efforts and risk. It extends current applications of the discrete spatial choice framework to burglary target selection by adopting the house as the spatial unit of analysis and studies burglars' target selection process in a larger and more diverse study area than that of earlier studies. Using data on 650 residential burglaries and on approximately 500,000 residential properties in the Belgian province East Flanders, we consider a discrete spatial choice model of burglary target selection to establish which house-related attributes influence burglars' target selection process. Our findings demonstrate that terraced houses, houses without a garage, houses that have not been outfitted with a central heating and/or air-conditioning system and houses nearby burglars' residences are more likely to be selected. Overall, our analysis suggests that burglars rely on effort-related attributes to distinguish between targets while higher perceived rewards actually decrease the odds of a house being burglarized. Risk-related attributes are unimportant for burglars' target choice.     

Space–time interaction of residential burglaries in Wuhan,China

Borrowing methods from epidemiology, studies of spatiotemporal regularities of crime have been booming in various industrialized countries. However, few such attempts are empirical studies using crime data in developing countries due to a lack of data availability. Utilizing a recent burglary dataset in Wuhan, the fourth largest city in China, current research applied the sequential kernel density estimation and the space–time K-function methods to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of hotspots of residential burglaries. The results show that, both spatial and spatiotemporal clustering exists. The hotspots were relatively stable over time. The space–time clustering, however, shows significant concentrations both in space and over time. In addition, analytic results show significant effects of distance decay in terms of occurrences of burglary incidents along the spatial and temporal dimensions. Moreover, findings from the research provide critical information on the space–time rhythm of crime, and therefore can be utilized in crime prevention practice. Finally, the implications of the findings and limitations are discussed.     

Residential Burglaries and Neighborhood Socioeconomic Context in London,Ontario: Global and Local Regression Analysis*

The main aim of this article is to analyze the relationships between the spatial patterns of residential burglaries and the socioeconomic characteristics of neighborhoods in London, Ontario. Relative risk ratios are applied as a measure of the intensity of residential burglary. The variation in the risks of burglary is modeled as a function of contextual neighborhood variables. Following a conventional (global) regression analysis, spatial variations in the relationships are examined using geographically weighted regression (GWR). The GWR results show that there are significant local variations in the relationships between the risk of residential burglary victimization and the average value of dwellings and percentage of the population in multifamily housing. The results are discussed in the context of four hypotheses, which may explain geographical variations in residential burglary. The practical implication of the GWR analysis is that different crime prevention policies should be implemented in different neighborhoods of the city.     

北京城区公共交通满意度模型与空间结构评价

以北京市城八氏的公共交通为切入点.探索了城市空间结构的评价分析方法.通过"公共交通可达性"指标.将城市实体空间结构的指标与居民对公共交通的满意度连系起来.建立了以满意度为目标的城市空间结构评价体系.并对提升城市空间结构的实体空间因子进行了实证分析.首先,对"公共交通可达性"的各项影响因子进行了梳理,从公共交通服务质量、区域经济特征、道路建设三个方面,提出了包括公交通达度、人口和经济集聚度、道路密度、区位指标等在内的城市公共交通可达性的评价指标体系.其次,构建了以居民满意度为因变量的公共交通可达性评价模型.分析定量揭示了公交站点配置、公交通达度、经济密度等凶素对了:城市空间结构的优化作用.同时分析表明.公共交通的优化需充分考虑不同属性的居民群体的空间分布规律.据此,从城市空间结构评价的角度分析了北京市公共交通中存在的问题,并提出如下建议:①市政交通规划的重点应放在五环以内地区;②实现800m公交站点服务面积全覆盖;③加强各地与市区重要功能节点的公共交通联系来提高其通达度;④根据居民的分布和属性特征出台相应的公交服务政策提高不同居民群体的公共交通满意度.     

交互作用视角下人口流动性与住房类型对城市入室盗窃空间格局的影响

已有研究发现社区住房类型对城市入室盗窃的空间格局有重要影响,但鲜有学者探讨位于不同人口流动程度社区环境中的不同住房对入室盗窃影响的差异。本研究以中国东南沿海城市ZG市为例,基于日常活动和社会失序等理论,以社区为分析单元,利用入室盗窃警情数据、第六次人口普查数据和兴趣点数据（Point of Interest, POI）,运用空间滞后负二项回归方法,分析人口流动性与住房类型的交互作用对入室盗窃空间格局的影响。结果表明：人口流动性高的社区入室盗窃率较高;自建住房比例对入室盗窃率有显著的正向影响,原公有住房比例和商品房比例则呈显著的抑制作用;交互变量的结果发现,人口流动性与不同类型住房变量的交互作用存在差异,其中,人口流动性与自建住房、经济适用房、原公有住房的交互变量对入室盗窃的发生具有显著的促进作用,而与商品房的交互对入室盗窃的影响并不显著。说明在探讨不同类型住房与入室盗窃的关系时,应重视其所在社区的人口流动程度的影响。     

LOCATING EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN URBAN AREAS TO MINIMIZE TRAVEL TIME

The transportation requirements of an urban area are, in part, a function of its land use pattern. Reducing travel in an urban area by effective land use design appears to be a worthwhile public policy objective. The planning model derived in this article uses as its core the matrix version of the Lowry model developed by Garin. The model allocates basic employment to the zones of an urban area in order to minimize work and service trips. A hypothetical planning problem for Metropolitan Toronto illustrates use of the model.     

徐州城市建设用地空间格局特征及其演化

基于1979年、1994年、2003年、2008年徐州城市土地利用现状图,构建研究区居住、工业和商业及公共服务（商服）用地图层,在此基础上运用基于矢量单元的圈层分析、扇形分析和基于栅格单元的空间韵律分析技术,分别从距离、方位和空间格局关系等方面分析了徐州城市建设功能用地空间格局。研究表明：（1）工业和居住用地的波峰位置...     

长春市公共服务设施空间与居住空间格局特征

基于长春市790个居住小区、178所小学、301家社区医院、1681个公交站点等空间数据,引用核密度估计、Riley's K函数、同位区位商等分析方法,对公共服务设施空间与居住空间的形态格局、集聚特性、“临近性”关系等进行了定量分析。研究发现：首先,公共服务设施空间与居住空间分布的形态格局差异显著,同时也表现出较高的相关性,“核心—外围”网点数量的分布特征趋同性与分异性并存;其次,公共服务设施空间与居住空间均呈现出显著的集聚特征,但集聚的规模与强度差异明显,二者空间分布的协调性程度仍需提高;第三,从分布的空间关系来看,居住小区具有较为明显的“临近”公共服务设施布局的倾向,但反之不明显,整体呈现出空间格局的“非对称性”特征。     

犯罪共生空间的类型识别及其特征分析

以ZG市公共空间盗窃、入室盗窃、寻衅滋事、接触诈骗、抢劫抢夺犯罪为研究对象,采用K均值聚类法识别不同类型的犯罪共生空间;并通过决策树模型分析了不同犯罪共生空间的特征。结果表明,ZG市犯罪共生空间可划分为4种类型：① 无犯罪类型共生区;② 公共空间盗窃和接触诈骗犯罪共生区;③ 所有类型犯罪共生区;④ 入室盗窃、寻衅滋事和抢劫抢夺犯罪共生区。城市中各异的社会环境和建成环境产生了不同类型的犯罪机会,而且各类社会环境和建成环境之间存在着条件交互性作用。研究结果为制定犯罪的联合防控策略和实现有限警力的合理布控并且提高执法效率提供了理论基础。     

Exploring and Visualizing Stakeholder Value Regimes in the Context of Peri-Urban Park Planning

Abstract

Peri-urban zones are an emerging issue in the analysis of urban areas as social-ecological systems. This work presents a process of developing support tools for local planning and decision-making, which were used to facilitate discussion between stakeholders about planning a future peri-urban park in the south of Prague, Czech Republic. Sociological methods were employed to describe and visualize the attitudes, communication patterns and value regimes of involved stakeholders. The research developed and tested an approach to map the distribution of stakeholder value regimes related to the study area and demonstrated its capability in facilitating communication between stakeholders. The output maps can serve as practical support tools and provide efficient means during the search for consensus on a form of shared governance in the future peri-urban park.     

西安市城市景观的正负生态系统服务测算及空间格局

综合测评城市景观的复合（正负）生态系统服务功能和评价不同城市景观类型的生态系统服务贡献,对优化、调控在城市化影响下的景观转换和城市生态环境建设等具有重要的科学意义。运用景观生态学理论与生态系统服务理论,基于研究区的TM遥感影像和Erdas、ArcGIS 10.1软件对西安市建成区2013年城市景观的复合生态系统服务进行测算和空间分析。结果表明：① 西安城市景观产生的负向生态系统服务价值远高于正向生态系统服务价值,净生态系统服务达-12.71×10⁸元;在城市化过程中,随着自然景观向半人工景观、人工景观的转变,导致景观生态系统服务的价值急剧下降,负向生态系统服务占主导,87.81%的土地复合生态系统服务为负值,仅有12.19%的土地复合生态系统服务为正值,以建筑用地为主体的城市景观体系必然会导致生态系统服务的下降。② 西安市城市景观的总正向生态系统服务空间分布差异明显,整体呈现为研究区中心值低于四周,沿行道绿地、公园绿地等景观形成格网状、斑块状分布的高值区;总负向生态系统服务整体上呈现中心值高于四周,高值区较集聚,自然景观和半人工景观是维系城市正向生态系统服务的主要景观类型。③ 城市景观的空间分布基本上决定了复合生态系统服务的空间大格局,西安市各城市景观类型的空间组合与镶嵌状况,使得生态系统服务正负值呈斑块状、棋盘状交错分布的格局。愈向城市外围,复合生态系统服务价值越高;城中林地、绿地和水域分布的地方是复合生态系统服务价值网状高值区。     

The use of predictive analysis in spatiotemporal crime forecasting: Building and testing a model in an urban context

Police databases hold a large amount of crime data that could be used to inform us about current and future crime trends and patterns. Predictive analysis aims to optimize the use of these data to anticipate criminal events. It utilizes specific statistical methods to predict the likelihood of new crime events at small spatiotemporal units of analysis. The aim of this study is to investigate the potential of applying predictive analysis in an urban context. To this end, the available crime data for three types of crime (home burglary, street robbery, and battery) are spatially aggregated to grids of 200 by 200 m and retrospectively analyzed. An ensemble model is applied, synthesizing the results of a logistic regression and neural network model, resulting in bi-weekly predictions for 2014, based on crime data from the previous three years. Temporally disaggregated (day versus night predictions) monthly predictions are also made. The quality of the predictions is evaluated based on the following criteria: direct hit rate (proportion of incidents correctly predicted), precision (proportion of correct predictions versus the total number of predictions), and prediction index (ratio of direct hit rate versus proportion of total area predicted as high risk). Results indicate that it is possible to attain functional predictions by applying predictive analysis to grid-level crime data. The monthly predictions with a distinction between day and night produce better results overall than the bi-weekly predictions, indicating that the temporal resolution can have an important impact on the prediction performance.     

老年人公交活动空间特征及影响因素研究——基于日常与偶发活动的对比分析

公交出行对保障老年人生活质量具有重要意义。论文以安徽省芜湖市区为研究区域,从频率分异的视角出发研究老年人公交活动空间,利用公交刷卡数据,对比分析日常与偶发活动空间的分布特征,并进一步借助地理加权回归方法探讨建成环境对其影响机制的差异。研究发现：① 老年人日常和偶发公交活动空间呈现出相似的圈层式空间分布特征,但偶发活动的圈层结构层次相对更加明显;② 日常与偶发活动空间的影响机制存在差异,建成环境在不同空间的影响强度和方向存在明显不同,尤其表现在城市外围空间。研究结果有助于更加全面地解读老年人活动空间的结构层次,并为面向不同城市空间、不同类型设施的系统性规划建设提供参考。     

The Growth and Location of High Order Services in the Canadian Urban System, 1971–1991

In spite of the considerable economic importance of high order (intermediate demand) services, research on the growth and location of these activities has remained at a fairly aggregate level. The behavior of the individual elements of this group has rarely been documented in detail. In this paper, we seek to determine if individual high order service activities are becoming spatially more concentrated or dispersed across the Canadian urban system, and to determine if differential rates of growth may be observed by region and by urban size category. These issues are of considerable importance in the ongoing debate concerning the impact of the tertiarization of the economy on uneven spatial development. We examine the performance and location of 17 individual high order service activities over a set of 152 Canadian urban areas with populations greater than 10,000 inhabitants. Most of these activities are highly concentrated in a small number of very large urban areas, and their level of concentration declined only very slightly over the period 1971–1991. We conclude with an examination of the factors underlying the geographic concentration of high order services at the upper end of the urban hierarchy.     

北京城市蔓延的测度与分析

Concerning about the rapid urban growth in recent China, this study takes Beijing as a case and puts forward that urban sprawl can be measured from spatial configuration, urban growth efficiency and external impacts, and then develops a geo-spatial indices system for measuring sprawl, a total of 13 indicators. In order to calculate these indices, different sources data are selected, including land use maps, former land use planning, land price and floor-area-ratio samples, digitized map of the highways and city centers, population and GDP statistical data, etc. Various GIS spatial analysis methods are used to spatialize these indices into 100m×100m cells. Besides, an integrated urban sprawl index is calculated by weight sum of these 13 indices. The application result indicates that geo-spatial indices system can capture most of the typical features and interior differentia of urban sprawl. Construction land in Beijing has kept fast growing with large amount, low efficiency and disordered spatial configuration, indicating a typical sprawling tendency. The following specific sprawl features are identified by each indicator: (1) typical spatial configuration of sprawling: obvious fragmentation and irregularity of landscape due to unsuccessful enforcement of land use planning, unadvisable pattern of typical discontinuous development, strip development and leapfrog development; (2) low efficiency of sprawl: low development density, low population density and economic output in newly developed area; and (3) negative impacts on agriculture, environment and city life. According to the integrated sprawl index, the sprawling amount in the northern part is larger than that in the southern, but the sprawling extent is in converse case; most sprawling area include the marginal area of the near suburbs and the area between highways, etc. Four sprawling patterns are identified: randomly expansion at urban fringe, strip development along or between highways, scattered development of industrial land, leapfrog development of urban residence and industrial area.     

Reply To “On Farmland Protection In Southern California”

Mounting evidence indicates that large, world-class cities have expanded their spatial markets well beyond the regional urban systems in which they are located. This has led many observers to conclude that in the contemporary economy, interdependence, interaction, and connectivity are no longer fundamental characteristics of hierarchical urban systems. Virtually all research, however, deals exclusively with the changing role of large cities, while the spatial markets of medium- and smaller-sized cities comprising an urban system have been ignored. The primary objective of this paper is to investigate whether the spatial markets of medium- and smaller-sized cities in an urban hierarchical system continue to display a systematic relationship with city size, or whether they also reveal the absence of connection, or integration, with the regional system. The analysis uses survey data collected from 480 producer service firms located in an urban hierarchy comprising 15 midwestern cities of the United States. The results indicate that the spatial market of the largest city (Chicago) extends well beyond the Midwest urban hierarchy, while the spatial markets of smaller-sized cities are more integrated within the hierarchical system.     

Evaluating the Relationships of Bus Transit with Street and Off-Street Robberies

The relationship between public transit and crime has been extensively investigated for decades. Compared to rail systems, limited research has been conducted on bus transit and its surrounding robbery influence. In particular, most of the studies have focused on either all types of robbery as a whole or street robbery only. Street and off-street robberies have distinct spatial characteristics, however: The former occurs on the street, whereas the latter occurs not on the street but at indoor places or in (semi)public areas. Therefore, they might have different proximity to bus transit. Furthermore, as bus transit is not operated twenty-four hours a day, it is questionable to connect bus transit with robbery when bus transit is not in service. This study uses exploratory spatial data analysis and statistical modeling to compare and contrast street and off-street robberies to discover how their relations with bus transit vary in space and time. Results reveal that both street and off-street robberies decrease as the distance from bus stops increases. Compared to off-street robbery, street robbery is inclined to occur on the street without bus routes and during nonservice hours, respectively. These findings suggest that the preference of street robbery is related to the excess of suitable targets over capable guardians away from bus routes and when bus transit is not in operation, whereas off-street robbery is connected with the residential and commercial attractions along bus routes and people's frequent activities at these places during transit service hours.     

Multiscale Segregation: Multilevel Modeling of Dissimilarity—Challenging the Stylized Fact That Segregation Is Greater the Finer the Spatial Scale

A very large literature has explored the intensity of urban residential segregation using the index of dissimilarity. Several recent studies have undertaken such analyses at multiple spatial scales, invariably reaching the conclusion that the finer grained the spatial scale, the greater the segregation. Such findings, however, overstate the intensity of segregation at finer spatial scales because they fail to take into account an argument made by Duncan et al. some sixty years ago that indexes derived from fine-scale analyses must necessarily incorporate those from coarser scales, with the consequence that finer scale segregation is invariably overestimated. Moreover, most studies ignore stochastic variation that results in upward bias in the estimates of segregation. This article demonstrates the importance of a recently developed multilevel modeling procedure that identifies the “true” intensity of segregation at every level in a spatial hierarchy net of its intensity at other levels and also net of stochastic variation This is illustrated by both a simulated data set and an empirical study of an English city, with the latter raising important substantive issues regarding the interpretation of segregation patterns and the processes underlying them. Key Words: dissimilarity, multilevel modeling, scale, segregation.