The rupture process and asperity distribution of three great earthquakes from long-period diffracted P-waves

Maximum earthquake size varies considerably amongst the subduction zones. This has been interpreted as a variation in the seismic coupling, which is presumably related to the mechanical conditions of the fault zone. The rupture process of a great earthquake indicates the distribution of strong (asperities) and weak regions of the fault. The rupture process of three great earthquakes (1963 Kurile Islands, M_W = 8.5; 1965 Rat Islands, M_W = 8.7; 1964 Alaska, M_W = 9.2) are studied by using WWSSN stations in the core shadow zone. Diffraction around the core attenuates the P-wave amplitudes such that on-scale long-period P-waves are recorded. There are striking differences between the seismograms of the great earthquakes; the Alaskan earthquake has the largest amplitude and a very long-period nature, while the Kurile Islands earthquake appears to be a sequence of magnitude 7.5 events.The source time functions are deconvolved from the observed records. The Kurile Islands rupture process is characterized by the breaking of asperities with a length scale of 40–60 km, and for the Alaskan earthquake the dominant length scale in the epicentral region is 140–200 km. The variation of length scale and M_W suggests that larger asperities cause larger earthquakes. The source time function of the 1979 Colombia earthquake (M_W = 8.3) is also deconvolved. This earthquake is characterized by a single asperity of length scale 100–120 km, which is consistent with the above pattern, as the Colombia subduction zone was previously ruptured by a great (M_W = 8.8) earthquake in 1906.The main result is that maximum earthquake size is related to the asperity distribution on the fault. The subduction zones with the largest earthquakes have very large asperities (e.g. the Alaskan earthquake), while the zones with the smaller great earthquakes (e.g. Kurile Islands) have smaller scattered asperities.     

3D <Emphasis Type="Italic">v</Emphasis><Subscript>P</Subscript> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">v</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript> models of southeastern margin of the Tibetan plateau from joint inversion of body-wave arrival times and surface-wave dispersion data

A new 3D velocity model of the crust and upper mantle in the southeastern (SE) margin of the Tibetan plateau was obtained by joint inversion of body- and surface-wave data. For the body-wave data, we used 7190 events recorded by 102 stations in the SE margin of the Tibetan plateau. The surface-wave data consist of Rayleigh wave phase velocity dispersion curves obtained from ambient noise cross-correlation analysis recorded by a dense array in the SE margin of the Tibetan plateau. The joint inversion clearly improves the v _S model because it is constrained by both data types. The results show that at around 10 km depth there are two low-velocity anomalies embedded within three high-velocity bodies along the Longmenshan fault system. These high-velocity bodies correspond well with the Precambrian massifs, and the two located to the northeast of 2013 M _S 7.0 Lushan earthquake are associated with high fault slip areas during the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The aftershock gap between 2013 Lushan earthquake and 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is associated with low-velocity anomalies, which also acts as a barrier zone for ruptures of two earthquakes. Generally large earthquakes (M ≥ 5) in the region occurring from 2008 to 2015 are located around the high-velocity zones, indicating that they may act as asperities for these large earthquakes. Joint inversion results also clearly show that there exist low-velocity or weak zones in the mid-lower crust, which are not evenly distributed beneath the SE margin of Tibetan plateau.     

Rupture process of the Miyagi-Oki,Japan, earthquake of June 12, 1978

The faulting mechanism and multiple rupture process of the M = 7.4 Miyagi-Oki earthquake are studied using surface and body wave data from local and worldwide stations. The main results are as follows. (1) P-wave first motion data and radiation patterns of long-period surface waves indicate a predominantly thrust mechanism with strike N10° E, dip 20°W, and slip angle 76°. The seismic moment is 3.1 × 10²⁷ dyne-cm. (2) Farfield SH waveforms and local seismograms suggest that the rupture occurred in two stages, being concordant with the two zones of aftershock activity revealed by the microearthquake network of Tohoku University. The upper and lower zones, located along the westward-dipping plate interface, are separated by a gap at a depth of 35 km and have dimensions of 37 × 34 and 24 × 34 km², respectively. Rupture initiated at the southern end of the upper aftershock zone and propagated at N20°W subparallel to the trench axis. About 11 s later, the second shock, which was located 30 km landward (westward) of the first, initiated at the upper corner of the lower aftershock zone and propagated down-dip N80°W. Using Haskell modelling for this rupture process, synthetic seismograms were computed for teleseismic SH waves and nearfield body waves. Other parameters determined are: seismic moment $\text{M}{}_0\text{= 1.7 × 10}{}^{27}\text{dyne-cm, slip dislocation}\text{u}\text{= 1.9}\text{m}\text{, Δσ = 95}\text{bar, rupture velocity}\text{ν = 3.2}\text{km s}{}^{\mathrm{?1}}\text{,}\text{rise time}\text{τ = 2}\text{s}$, for the first event; $\text{M}{}_0\text{= 1.4 × 10}{}^{27}\text{dyne-cm}\text{,}\text{u}\text{= 2.4}\text{m}\text{, Δσ = 145}\text{bar}$, for the second event; and time separation between the two shocks ΔT = 11 s. The above two-segment model does not explain well the sharp onsets of the body waves at near-source stations. An initial break of a small subsegment on the upper zone, which propagated down-dip, was hypothesized to explain the observed near-source seismograms. (3) The multiple rupture of the event and the absence of aftershocks between the two fault zones suggests that the frictional and/or sliding characteristics along the plate interface are not uniform. The rupture of the first event was arrested, presumably by a region of high fracture strength between the two zones. The fracture energy of the barrier was estimated to be 10¹⁰ erg cm^?2. (4) The possible occurrence of a large earthquake has been noted for the region adjacent to and seaward of the area that ruptured during the 1978 event. The 1978 event does not appear to reduce the likelihood of occurrence of this expected earthquake.     

Source modeling of the Hsingtai,China earthquakes of March 1966

The Hsingtai, China earthquakes of March 1966 were a series of destructive earthquakes associated with the Shu-lu graben. Five strong shocks of M_s ≥ 6 occurred within a period of less than a month, the largest of which was M_s 7.2. Body and surface waves over the period range from several to 100 s have been modeled for the four largest events using synthetic seismograms in the time domain and spectral analysis in the frequency domain. Data from ground deformation, local geology, regional seismic network, and teleseismic joint epicenter determination have also been used to constrain the source model and the rupture process.The fault mechanism of the Hsingtai sequence was mainly strike-slip with a small component of normal dip-slip. The strikes of the four largest shocks range from ～ N26° to 30°E, approximately along strike of the major faults of the Shu-lu graben and the aftershock distribution. The source mechanisms can be explained with a NNW-SSE extensional stress and a NEE-SWW compressional stress acting in the area. The major shocks all had focal depths ～ 10 km.The four largest shocks in the sequence were characterized by a relatively simple and smooth dislocation time history. The durations of the far-field source time functions ranged from 3.5 to 5 s, while the rise times were all ～ 1 s. The seismic moments of the four largest earthquakes ranged from 1.43 × 10²⁵ to 1.51 × 10²⁶ dyne cm^?1. The fault sizes of the four events were very close. Assuming circular faults, the diameters of the four events were determined to be between 10 and 14 km. Stress drops varied from ～ 52 to 194 bars. A trend of increasing stress drop with earthquake size was observed.A survey of stress drop determinations for 15 major intraplate earthquakes shows that on the average the magnitude of stress drop of oceanic intraplate earthquakes and passive continental margin events is higher (～ 200 to several hundred bars) than that of continental intraplate earthquakes (～ 100 bars or less).     

Evolution of the vigorous 2006 swarm in Zakynthos (Greece) and probabilities for strong aftershocks occurrence

A multiplet of moderate-magnitude earthquakes (5.1?≤?M?≤?5.6) took place in Zakynthos Island and offshore area (central Ionian Islands, Greece) in April 2006. The activity in the first month occupied an area of almost 35 km long, striking roughly NNW–SSE, whereas aftershocks continued for several months, decaying with time but persisting at the same place. The properties of the activated structure were investigated with accurate relocated data and the available fault plane solutions of some of the stronger events. Both the distribution of seismicity and fault plane solutions show that thrusting with strike-slip motions are both present in high-angle fault segments. The segmentation of the activated structure could be attributed to the faulting complexity inherited from the regional compressive tectonics. Investigation of the spatial and temporal behavior of seismicity revealed possible triggering of adjacent fault segments that may fail individually, thus preventing coalescence in a large main rupture. In an attempt to forecast occurrence probabilities of six of the strong events (M _w?≥?5.0), estimations were performed following the restricted epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, applied to data samples before each one of these strong events. Stochastic modeling was also used to identify “quiescence” periods before the examined aftershocks. In two out of the six cases, real aftershock rate did decrease before the next strong shock compared to the modeled one. The latter results reveal that rate decrease is not a clear precursor of strong shocks in the swarm and no quantitative information, suitable to supply probability gain, could be extracted from the data.     

Renormalization of the magnitude scale

Seismic source parameters of 27 earthquakes in the magnitude range 7.0–8.5 that occurred during 1906–1969 and that were determined mostly from inversion of long-period seismic surface waves in the period range 100–200 s are re-examined. Among these are five re-evaluations (Chile, May 1960; Sanriku, March 1933; Assam, August 1950; Alaska, July 1958; Alaska, March 1964) and six new analyses (Aleutian Ils., March 1957; Peru, Nov. 1947; New Guinea, Feb. 1938; Queen Charlotte Ils., August 1949; San Francisco, April 1906; Kern County, July 1952).It is shown both theoretically and experimentally that the strong azimuthal dependence of the far displacement field makes the 20-s magnitude vulnerable to uncertainties up to $\text{2}\text{3}$ unit of magnitude. These uncertainties are inherent in the magnitude definition, depend on the azimuth of the observer and are unremovable.A remedy is offered in the form of a new magnitude scale, based on the cube root of the potency (product of fault area S and average slip $\text{U}$). In the magnitude range 6.75–8.5 this scale is centigrade. It is shown that $\text{(}\text{U}\text{S)}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>1</mtext><mtext>3</mtext>}}$ is the “azimuth-free” part of the Richter magnitude and its adoption as a basis for a new magnitude scale may rid observations of azimuthal ambiguities.     

An investigation of seismicity for the Central Anatolia region,Turkey

The aim of this study is to investigate the seismicity of Central Anatolia, within the area restricted to coordinates 30–35° longitude and 38–41° latitude, by determining the “a” and “b” parameters in a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relationship using data from earthquakes of moment magnitude (Mw)?≥?4.0 that occurred between 1900 and 2010. Based on these parameters and a Poisson model, we aim to predict the probability of other earthquakes of different magnitudes and return periods (recurrence intervals). To achieve this, the study area is divided into six seismogenic zones, using spatial distributions of earthquakes greater than Mw?≥?4.0 with active faults. For each seismogenic zone, the a and b parameters in the Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relationship were calculated by the least squares method. The probability of occurrence and return periods of various magnitude earthquakes were calculated from these statistics using the Poisson method.     

Field-based description of near-surface crustal deformation in a high-strain shear zone: A case study in southern Kyushu,Japan

This study investigated geological evidence for near-surface crustal deformation in a high-strain shear zone that has been geodetically identified but which is not associated with obvious tectonic landforms. Fieldwork was conducted in the east–west-trending southern Kyushu high-strain shear zone (SKHZ), Japan, focusing mainly on occurrences of fracture zones, which are defined by a visible fracture density of >1 per 10 cm² and are commonly associated with cataclasite, fault breccia, and gouge. The area in which east–west-trending fracture zones are dominant is restricted to the east–west-trending, ~2-km-wide aftershock area of the 1997 Northwestern Kagoshima Earthquakes. Analysis of slip data from minor faults using the multiple inverse method, irrespective of whether the faults are in fracture zones, reveals that the area where the calculated main stress field is consistent with the current stress field estimated from focal-mechanism solutions of microearthquakes is restricted to the east–west-trending aftershock area. This finding for the SKHZ contrasts with the case of the Niigata–Kobe Tectonic Zone, which is a major strain-concentration zone with many exposed active faults in central Japan and for which the stress field estimated using fault-slip data is considered to be uniform and coincides with the current stress field. The cumulative amount of displacement estimated from the areal density of fracture zones in the SKHZ study area is smaller than that estimated from geodetically measured strain rates. Investigations based on slip data from minor faults and fracture-zone occurrence could help to identify concealed faults that are too small to generate tectonic landforms but which are sufficiently large to trigger major earthquakes.     

On the relation of the imminent sudden change in earth resistivity to the active fault and earthquake generating stress field

In this paper, the relations of the changes of earth resistivity (ρ) _s recorded at 100 geoelectrical stations in 31 earthquakes occurred in the continent of China, to the active faults (active abyssal faults or badly active faults near the focal zone) and the causative stress fields are discussed and the following conclusions are obtained:

1. On the condition that a station is near the active fault and in the direction of the causative stress (DCS) of an earthquake (EQ), the immediate variation ofρ _s to the earthquake (called “immediate variation” for short) could be recorded generally at the station.
2. The active fault which lies between a station and the epicenter of an earthquake seems to play a role in “obstructing” the recording of the imminent variation when the strike of the fault is close to the DCS of the earthquake. When that is parrallel with the DCS the “obstructing” function of the fault is strongest; when normal with the DCS, weakest.

The regularity seems to have the universality for moderate earthquakes and strong ones occurred in the continent of China.     

川南马边地区强震危险性分析

根据最近34a的区域台网地震资料,利用地震活动性参数b值的空间分布,结合历史强震与现今地震活动背景,分析了川南马边地区主要断裂带的现今活动习性,并初步判别出了潜在的强震危险区域。研究结果表明:1)马边地区的b值空间分布存在明显的空间差异,反映了该区域不同断裂带与断裂段应力积累水平的差异;2)马边-盐津断裂带上存在3个尺度不等的异常低b值区,它们可能是该断裂带上的相对高应力区(或凹凸体),其中位于马边北、沐川西部利店镇附近的凹凸体与位于该断裂带南端盐津附近的凹凸体可能是马边地区未来发生大地震的危险场所,而位于绥江南的小尺度凹凸体有可能是潜在强震的发生地点;3)存在于龙泉山断裂带西南段的凹凸体将是未来发生中强地震的场所;4)金口河-美姑断裂上位于汉源县皇木镇与峨眉山市龙池镇之间的凹凸体存在发生中强地震的可能性     

Nemuro-Oki earthquake of June 17, 1973: A lithospheric rebound at the upper half of the interface

P-wave first motions, radiation patterns and amplitudes of long-period surface waves, relocated aftershock distributions, leveling and tsunami data indicate that the 1973 Nemuro-Oki earthquake is caused by a low-angle thrust-faulting, representing a rebound at the upper 50 km of the interface between the continental and oceanic lithospheres. Rebound, most likely aseismic, at depths below 50 km, is suggested to take place in the near future from a comparison of recent geologic crustal deformation with pre-seismic and co-seismic data. The estimated seismic moment is about $\text{1}\text{3}\text{–}\text{1}\text{4}$ of that for the neighboring great earthquakes. The macro-seismic data suggest that the 1973 earthquake is smaller than the 1894 Nemuro-Oki earthquake, the last great earthquake in this region.The 1973 earthquake had been predicted on the basis of a seismic gap. Although the prediction was successful as to the location and nature of the faulting and partly as to the occurrence time, it is smaller than the predicted one. A part of the seismic gap may still remain. The difference between the observed seismic slip (1.6 m) and that predicted on the basis of the pre-seismic crustal deformation (3.0 m) indicates either (1) the 1973 earthquake relieved only a part of the strain accumulated in the upper 50 km, or (2) a significant amount of aseismic slip took place on the seismic fault and completely relieved the accumulated strain in the focal region of the 1973 earthquake. If the former is the case, the remaining strain, not only in the focal region, but also in the remaining seismic gap adjoining it, may be relieved in a larger earthquake in the future.The source parameters obtained are as follows: fault plane, dip direction = N40°W, dip angle = 27°; seismic moment = 6.7 · 10²⁷ dyn cm; average slip dislocation, 1.6 m in N63°W direction; stress drop = 35 bars. In these calculations, the fault dimension and the rigidity are assumed to be 100 · 60 km² and 7.0 · 10¹¹ dyn/cm², respectively.     

Population dynamics of earthquakes and mathematical modeling

We present a mathematical model that describes temporal variations of earthquakes. This model is represented as $$dn(t)/dt = n(t)\left[ {\alpha - \beta n(t) - \int_{ - \infty }^t {n(s)h(t - s)ds} } \right].$$ Heren(t) shows the numberof earthquakes per unit time in a certain region. α and β are constants. The functionh(t) denotes the hysteresis effect of the earthquake occurrences and can take the following forms depending on the physical conditions of the crusts; (A)h(t)=0: the equation represents a logistic type increase or decrease and approaches a stationary state asymptotically. This describes aftershock series of large earthquakes and earthquake swarms of large scale such as the Wakayama and Matsushiro swarms in Japan; (B)h(t)=constant (β=0): frequencyn(t) increases initially and then decreases gradually and shows some kind of volcanic swarms; (C)h(t) = κ · {exp(?γ₁ t) ? exp(γ₂ t)}, (γ₂ > γ₁): this denotes time delay effects and the model shows periodic patterns of bursts or “rhythms” of earthquakes, which are observed in earthquake swarms. When external effects are taken into consideration, the model is further generalized and can describe various seismic patterns. These effects represent various influences of the circumstances like the earth tide and fluctuations of plate motions, etc. Whenh(t) takes type (A) and the external effect is random, the equation displays repetitive random patterns with bursts. Particularly interesting cases may be those whenh(t) is type (C) and the external force is periodic like the earth tide. Various nonperiodic as well as periodic patterns of earthquakes appear. These are the phenomena of “chaos” and “entrainment”, etc. and can be commonly observed. Varieties of actual earthquake patterns seem to be, at least partly, explained by the nonlinear coupling between the tidal forces and autonomous rhythms of earthquakes.     

Observation and Modeling of the January 2009 West Papua, Indonesia Tsunami

We modeled a tsunami from the West Papua, Indonesia earthquakes on January 3, 2009 (M _w?=?7.7). After the first earthquake, tsunami alerts were issued in Indonesia and Japan. The tsunami was recorded at many stations located in and around the Pacific Ocean. In particular, at Kushimoto on Kii Peninsula, the maximum amplitude was 43?cm, larger than that at Manokwari on New Guinea Island, near the epicenter. The tsunami was recorded on near-shore wave gauges, offshore GPS sensors and deep-sea bottom pressure sensors. We have collected more than 150 records and used 72 stations?? data with clear tsunami signals for the tsunami source modeling. We assumed two fault models (single fault and five subfaults) which are located to cover the aftershock area. The estimated average slip on the single fault model (80?×?40?km) is 0.64?m, which yields a seismic moment of 1.02?×?10²⁰?Nm (M _w?=?7.3). The observed tsunami waveforms at most stations are well explained by this model.     

Deep structure and tomographic imaging of strong earthquake source zones

This work generalizes the results of tomographic imaging performed by the authors for epicentral zones. Seismic events in North Africa (the M _w = 5.8 earthquake of 1985 near the town of Constantine), eastern Anatolia (the Erzincan M _w = 6.7 earthquake of 1992), the Lesser and Greater Caucasus (the 1988 Spitak M _w = 6.8 and the 1991 Racha M _w = 7.0 earthquakes), and northern Sakhalin (the 1995 Neftegorsk M _w = 7.1 earthquake) are examined. It is shown how various morphokinematic types of active faults differ in the resulting tomographic images at various depths. A classification of tomographic images of strong earthquake source zones is proposed in accordance with the rank of their generating faults. The sources of the Spitak, Racha, and Erzincan earthquakes are confined to large boundary faults separating tectonic zones. Lower velocity bands are revealed in the tomographic images, and low velocity “pockets” 1–2 km or somewhat more in width penetrating to a depth of up to 15 km are observed near the fault zones. The Constantine and Neftegorsk earthquakes were generated by faults of a lower rank. The source zones of these events are imaged tomographically as narrow gradient zones.     

Study on Potential Strong Earthquake Risks Around the Mabian Area,Southern Sichuan

Based on seismic data from the regional network for the last 34 years,we analyzed the present fault behavior of major fault zones around the Mabian area,southern Sichuan,and identified the risky fault-segments for potential strong and large earthquakes in the future.The method of analysis is a combination of spatial distribution of b-values with activity background of historical strong earthquakes and current seismicity.Our results mainly show:(1) The spatial distribution of b-values indicates significant heterogeneity in the studied area,which reflects the spatial difference of cumulative stress levels along various fault zones and segments.(2) Three anomalously low b-value areas with different dimensions were identified along the Mabian-Yanjin fault zone.These anomalies can be asperities under relatively high cumulated stress levels.Two asperities are located in the north of Mabian county,in Lidian town in western Muchuan county,and near Yanjin at the south end of the fault zone.These two areas represent potential large earthquake seismogenic sites around the Mabian area in the near future.Besides them,the third relatively smaller asperity is identified at southern Suijiang,as another potential strongearthquake source.(3) An asperity along the southwestern segment of the Longquanshan fault zone indicates the site of potential moderate-to-strong earthquakes.(4) The asperity along the segment between Huangmu town in Hanyuan county and Longchi town in Emeishan city on Jinkouhe-Meigu fault has potential for a moderate-strong earthquake.     

四川泸定地区三维速度结构与精定位研究

基于四川数字地震台网记录到的该研究区域(27.5°～31.5°N,100°～104°E)103 990个地震的震相数据,运用双差层析成像方法对泸定M_S6.8地震震源区及周边地区执行地震层析成像和精定位。结果表明：(1)余震序列主要分布于鲜水河断裂西南侧,长度约60 km,整体沿鲜水河断裂呈北西向展布,震源深度多集中在5～15 km,呈现出由北向南逐渐加深的迹象。根据余震序列空间分布特征及主震位置,提出鲜水河断裂东南段为发震断层,并且发现余震序列南北两端或许存在分支断层。根据背景地震的空间分布特征,推断其或许为泸定主震的前震。(2)主震的西北侧存在高速异常体,其或许阻挡了泸定地震向西北向破裂,结合鲜水河断裂东南段力学性质较弱,其滑动方向为首选的传播方向,推断泸定地震为单侧破裂,方向为东南。(3)泸定地震震源区下方30 km深度处存在弱S波低速层和高波速比,已有结果得知研究区中下地壳存在明显的高导层和低阻层,泸定主震位于热流值为65 mW·m²的大地热流等值线附近,综合推断震源区下方30 km或许存在地壳流体。同时,泸定地震发生在应力易积累,同时...     

The Vrancea,Romania, earthquake of March 4, 1977 — a quite successful prediction

The available data on the destructive intermediate earthquakes ($\text{M ? 6}\text{3}\text{4}$) in the Vrancea, Romania, region have been examined with the aim of revealing some time-magnitude regularities. The basic idea is that the total sequence (? 1100–1973 yr.), which appears as random, could be decomposed in some regular source-components which, by extrapolation, are superimposed to predict the future total sequence.The common nature of faulting (reverse dip-slip) and inferred regularities in the time-magnitude pattern of destructive Romanian earthquakes — (a) three active (seismic) time-bands alternating with quiet periods, the existence of (b) “quasicycles” and of (c) “supercycles” — led to the following predictions: (1) the occurrence of a shock with $\text{M ≈ 6}\text{3}\text{4}\text{? 7}$ in 1980 ± 13 years; and (2) later earthquakes are predicted in 2005, in 2030–2040 ($\text{M ≈ 6}\text{3}\text{4}\text{? 7}$), and one with nearly maximum magnitude ($\text{M = 7}\text{1}\text{2}\text{?7}\text{3}\text{4}$) in 2070–2090.In every century, about 40 years represent a time interval of high seismic danger for Romania and, according to the proposed long-term time-magnitude model, three destructive earthquakes arc to occur in (and/or near) the evidenced seismic periods P₁, P₂ and P₃.It is shown that, taking into account the actual difficulties involved in the earthquake prediction, the Vrancea destructive earthquake of March 4, 1977 (M = 7.1) was quite successfully predicted.     

A possible factor which triggers shallow intra-plate earthquakes

Taking the focal mechanisms into consideration, strain perturbations caused by preceding earthquakes are computed at the foci of 24 shallow intra-plate earthquakes (M ? 6) which occurred in the Japan area in the last 30 years. Significant accumulation of differential strain (namely, shear strain on the fault plane or earthquake-generating stress) preceded the occurrence of these major shocks in many cases (16 out of 24). The duration of strain accumulation amounted to several or ten years. Quantitatively, these effects were about 10^?8-10^?6 in strain and 1–100 mbar in stress. It is questionable whether small disturbances of this magnitude always constitute a definitive trigger. In some critical cases, however, a fractional change in strain (and stress) will probably play an essential role in initiating the precursory process which results in the occurrence of earthquakes.     

Characteristics of Soil Response in Near-Fault Zones During the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, Earthquake

Distribution of parameters characterizing soil response during the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake (M _w = 7.6) around the fault plane is studied. The results of stochastic finite-fault simulations performed in Pavlenko and Wen (2008) and constructed models of soil behavior at 31 soil sites were used for the estimation of amplification of seismic waves in soil layers, average stresses, strains, and shear moduli reduction in the upper 30 m of soil, as well as nonlinear components of soil response during the Chi-Chi earthquake. Amplification factors were found to increase with increasing distance from the fault (or, with decreasing the level of “input” motion to soil layers), whereas average stresses and strains, shear moduli reduction, and nonlinear components of soil response decrease with distance as ~ r ^?1 . The area of strong nonlinearity, where soil behavior is substantially nonlinear (the content of nonlinear components in soil response is more than ~40–50% of the intensity of the response), and spectra of oscillations on the surface take the smoothed form close to E(f) ~ f ^?n , is located within ~20–25 km from the fault plane (~ 1/4 of its length). Nonlinearity decreases with increasing distance from the fault, and at ~40–50 km from the fault (~ 1/2 of the fault length), soil response becomes virtually linear. Comparing soil behavior in near-fault zones during the 1999 Chi-Chi, the 1995 Kobe (M _w = 6.8), and the 2000 Tottori (Japan) (M _w = 6.7) earthquakes, we found similarity in the behavior of similar soils and predominance of the hard type of soil behavior. Resonant phenomena in upper soil layers were observed at many studied sites; however, during the Chi-Chi earthquake they involved deeper layers (down to ~ 40–60 m) than during lesser-magnitude Kobe and Tottori earthquakes.     

Gigantic directed blast at Shiveluch volcano (Kamchatka)

On November 12, 1964, after a long swarm of preliminary earthquakes a gigantic directed blast took place at Shiveluch Volcano. The Crater top of the volcano with five large domes was completely destroyed. The deposits of the directed blast fell on an area of 98 sq. km, at a distance up to 10 km from the crater. The volume of the deposits is 1.5 km³ at least. A new crater was formed, its size is 1.5 × 3 km. Numerous pyroclastic flows were poured out the new crater. The eruption lasted only one hour, its thermal energy is 1,3 × 10²⁵ ergs, kinetic energy of the blast ? 1 × 10²⁴ ergs, air wave energy ? 1,8 × 10²¹ ergs. Initial velocity of the explosion: 280–310m/sec, pressure: 800–1000atm. The eruption of Shiveluch volcano belongs to the « Bezymianny type » eruption.