2016年苏北近海风场和波浪场多时间尺度变化的数值模拟研究

利用高分辨率的大气和波浪数值模式,模拟了2016年苏北近海的风场和波浪场,并与卫星高度计资料、散射计风场、再分析资料以及实测浮标资料进行了比较,验证了模式的准确性。基于这套模式结果,系统地分析了江苏近海的风场和波浪场的多时间尺度变化:季节变化、日变化以及季节内变化(台风、寒潮)。分析结果表明:苏北近海海域的风速、有效波高和涌浪在冬季和秋季较大、春季和夏季较小;冬季盛行西北风,常浪向为西北向,夏季盛行东南风,常浪向为东南向。风场和波浪场还具有显著的日变化特征,且日变化存在季节变化规律,离岸越近海域日变化特征越明显。同时,江苏近海还会经历季节内尺度的强天气过程的影响,比如台风和寒潮。     

QuikSCAT卫星遥感风场可靠性分析及其揭示的中国近海风速分布

利用2000—2009年美国国家航空航天局(NASA)在中国近海海域(0°~45°N,105°~135°E)的QuikSCAT卫星遥感风场资料与近海测风塔(位于上海近海)、海上石油平台(位于东海和渤海)、岛屿站(南海珊瑚岛和西沙海边观测塔)的实测风场资料进行对比分析,检验了QuikSCAT卫星遥感风场资料在中国近海海域的可靠性。研究结果如下:各站点实测风速与站点位置以及站点附近的QuikSCAT卫星遥感风场资料相关系数均在0.7以上;QuikSCAT卫星遥感风场资料与海上石油平台的风速均方根误差较小(约1.5 m/s);其年均值均大于实测值,差值范围是0.1~1.3 m/s;其Weibull形状参数K与海上石油平台以及近海测风塔的K值较为接近,表明QuikSCAT卫星遥感风场资料各风速段的频次分布形态与观测站的实测值基本吻合,QuikSCAT卫星遥感风场资料能基本合理地反映出中国近海风速的分布状况。利用QuikSCAT卫星遥感风场资料分析了中国近海及其邻近水域风速的空间分布特征:(1)台湾海峡是中国近海风速最大的区域,从台湾海峡向东北至日本海,往西南至南海北部115°E附近和巴林塘海峡为风速的次大值区;(2)28°N到长江入海口的东海海域年均风速为7.0~7.5 m/s,在黄海和渤海为5.5~7.0 m/s,在南海北部自东向西由8.5 m/s递减为6.0 m/s,北部湾最大风速区位于东方附近海域。     

基于集约理念的海上风电用海面积控制指标研究

近年来我国沿海地区海上新能源用海、油气用海、交通运输用海等需求显著提高,对海洋空间资源的刚性需求急剧增加,供需矛盾日益紧张。尤其是海上风电用海,受国家宏观战略影响,呈现跨越式发展,装机容量跃居世界第一。大规模海上风电建设对海洋空间资源配置提出更高的要求,如何既保障海上风电用海需求,又协调海上风电与其他行业的用海矛盾,成为亟待解决的重要问题。树立自然资源集约利用理念能够良好解决上述问题,集约利用理念既是全面提高海洋空间资源利用效率的内在要求以及协调保护与利用显著矛盾的需要,更是协调保护与发展关系的关键。基于此,文章系统分析现有海上风电场外缘边线包络海域面积、确权海域面积等数据,采用集约化的空间资源开发理念,从项目选址与海缆路由、风电场设计与技术要求、用海范围及确权面积控制等方面完善海上风电用海面积控制指标体系,以期提高海上风电项目用海集约水平。     

江苏省海上风电用海项目调查

为加强对海上风电项目的用海管理,规范海上风电产业的用海活动,促进海域空间资源的科学合理开发利用,文章采用海上风电用海权属、风机遥感影像解译和海上风电用海项目核查的数据,以2016年年底为时间节点,对江苏省海上风电用海项目的确权管理、疑似疑点疑区、项目承担企业和项目运营情况进行调查,并根据调查结果提出存在的问题和建议。研究结果表明:江苏省共确权海上风电用海项目44个,已建设40个,总建设面积为6 712.91hm~2;疑似疑点疑区海上风电用海项目有26个;项目承担企业主要包括华能国际电力股份有限公司等;已建成投产并网的海上风电用海项目有29个,总投资额近293亿元,年发电量约50kW·h,年产出额近34亿元;目前海上风电用海项目主要存在未取得海域证、部分风机偏离原批复界址范围和规划布局不合理的问题,未来应坚持保护优先和适度开发原则、规范项目管理、优化规划布局以及加强动态监测。     

Sensitivity of wave model predictions to wind fields in the Western Mediterranean sea

The paper compares the wave hindcast in the Western Mediterranean sea using the reanalysis wind fields from HIPOCAS and ERA-40 from ECMWF for November 2001. The study has concentrated on the Mediterranean coast of Spain where there are known difficulties with the wind and wave modelling. Two winter storms have been compared. The main differences between the significant wave heights using the ERA-40 reanalysis (ECMWF) and HIPOCAS reanalysis winds were observed to increase when moving southwards in the geographical domain at the offshore locations. Systematic negative biases of Hs were obtained with the ERA-40 data at all the coastal locations analyzed, whereas positive biases are typical for the HIPOCAS reanalysis. For offshore and coastal locations when using the ERA-40 data the Hs biases increased moving to South, while this pattern was not so clear for the HIPOCAS data. The inconsistencies in the comparisons of modelled waves against measurements seem to be associated with the quality of the wind fields.     

基于专利信息的海上风电技术趋势分析

基于德温特数据库中的专利信息,通过对比海上风电和其他海洋主要可再生能源的年专利信息,结合海上风电专利数量与碳减排压力以及年新增装机数量之间的相关性分析,对海上风电技术发展做了分析,归纳了海上风电的重点技术领域;构建了海上风电技术成熟度预测分析模型。分析结果表明,海上风电技术发展迅速,目前整体的技术成熟度已达到0.87,已从成熟期进入饱和期。浮式风电作为一种具有替代性特征的新兴技术,也得到了快速的发展,目前的技术成熟度已达到0.54,从技术成长期进入技术成熟期。     

基于ERA5再分析资料的中国近海浅水区域风能潜力评估

风能潜力评估是风电场选址工作的基础工作。本文基于欧洲中期天气预报中心的ERA5再分析数据,采用风功率密度（Wind Power Density,WPD）中值、容量系数（Capacity Factor,CF）以及鲁棒性变异系数（Robust Coefficient of Variation, RCoV）三种指标,对中国近海浅水区域的风能潜力进行评估,研究结果表明:（1）台湾海峡和东海南部风能资源最为丰富并且风能利用率最高,风功率密度中值和容量系数分别为400~900 和0.45~0.7。总体来看,风功率密度中值从渤海到台湾海峡,呈逐渐增加的趋势,从台湾海峡到琼州湾,呈逐渐减小的趋势,容量系数大小分布情况相似。（2）鲁棒性变异系数大小无明显分布规律,广东湛江近岸海域鲁棒性变异系数在0.70~0.75之间,风能发电量最为稳定,但该地区的风能资源丰富程度较低。（3）福州近岸海域不仅有丰富的风能资源和风能利用率,且发电量较为稳定。在不考虑其它因素的影响下,是中国近海浅水区域建设海上风电场的最佳地点。     

中法海洋卫星散射计近海岸海面风场反演研究

中法海洋卫星散射计(CSCAT)使用扇形波束旋转扫描体制,能够以多角度测量同一海面的雷达后向散射系数,并具有空间分辨率较高的特点。这为近海岸海面风场反演提供了新的机遇。本文介绍了CSCAT近海岸海面风场处理的主要流程和关键技术。特别地,在风场反演之前,利用一种矩形窗算术平均的方法将L1B级的高分辨率条带数据组合平均到相应的风矢量单元中,从而实现近海岸风场反演的快速预处理。通过对比CSCAT、欧洲先进散射计(ASCAT)以及美国QuikSCAT的近海岸风场,发现CSCAT风场的质量在离岸40 km以外区域具有良好的一致性,而在离岸40 km以内显著恶化。分析表明,CSCAT近海岸区域风场统计特征恶化的原因可能是由潜在的海冰污染引起的。总体而言,CSCAT的近海岸风场与模式背景风场和浮标风场都具有良好的一致性。     

HY-2B卫星载荷联合观测海面阵风的一种反演方法

国内外对海上阵风的研究并不多,且大多集中在阵风预报和应用研究方面,对于海洋阵风数据的获取技术未见文献系统论述。本文利用HY-2B卫星雷达高度计观测的后向散射系数,结合校正微波辐射计观测的亮度温度信息,提出联合反演阵风风速的方法。两个遥感载荷联合反演得到的阵风风速与2019–2021年美国国家浮标数据中心（NDBC）浮标数据进行真实性检验,结果显示：阵风风速均方根误差（RMSE）为0.98 m/s,相关系数为0.82;基于本方法利用国外同类卫星Jason-3得到的阵风风速与2016–2018年NDBC浮标数据的RMSE为0.96 m/s,相关系数为0.88。本文在HY-2B卫星雷达高度计海面风速观测的基础上,纳入同一卫星平台校正微波辐射计的同步观测信息联合实现了海面阵风的观测,数据的比对结果证明文中方法具有较高的观测精度。同时,该方法对于具有相同观测体制的国内外卫星也适用。     

The 44-year Mediterranean HIPOCAS wind database: A useful tool to analyse offshore extreme wind events from a long-term regional perspective

Nowadays, many efforts are leading to use the high potential offshore wind energy resources. A detailed assessment of the offshore wind resources arises as a first-rate requirement. Most of such assessment is based on extreme offshore wind atlas generated mainly from global reanalysis and satellite data. Both sort of data show certain shortcomings related, among others, to coarse spatial resolution and time inhomogeneity issues, respectively. This snag seems to be crucial over areas such as the Mediterranean Basin, which is characterized by a complex land–sea distribution and a significant orography. The HIPOCAS Mediterranean long-term (1958–2001) wind database comes to overcome the aforementioned reanalysis shortcoming and provides a Mediterranean wind data set useful to perform extreme wind analysis. This contribution also deals with a statistical extreme wind analysis over the whole Mediterranean offshore areas. Extreme return periods and levels are obtained from annual maxima using a number of distributions. Additionally, an alternative regional statistical method based on regional L-moment statistics is also proposed. The regional technique is applied to reduce uncertainty and allows a higher number of measurements to be included in the analysis, using data from a homogeneous region instead of from a single location. The herein performed extreme wind analysis provides a detailed assessment of high wind offshore areas over the Mediterranean and constitutes a subject of great interest for evaluation of wind resources.     

黄河三角洲海上风场再分析资料对比

再分析风场资料在海洋气象的研究中得到广泛应用.本文基于黄河口区域孤东59井验潮站和桩西106验潮站现场观测资料,对CCMP(cross-calibrated multi-platform)、CFSR(climate forecast system re-analysis)、ERA-interim、JRA-554种再分析...     

南海北部海面风速概率分布特征

利用南海北部的浮标、石油平台观测的海面风资料,分析了0~200 km范围内,不同离岸距离站点的风速的概率分布特征。观测结果指出,各站平均风速一般最大值出现在冬季,最小值出现在夏季,具有明显的季节变化特征,并且平均风速随着离岸距离的增大也逐渐增大。对于离岸距离较近的区域（100 km以内）,海面风基本符合双参数的Weibull分布,但对于100 km以外的海面风速概率分布与Weibull分布存在明显差异,随着离岸距离的增大,平均风速和风速标准偏差也相应增大。风速平均值与风速标准偏差的比值较小时,Weibull分布的偏斜度基本为正值,当比值较大时偏斜度转为负值。随着离岸距离的增大,出现与Weibull分布不一致的情况越来越多,且与对应的Weibull分布相比,其偏斜度越小,风速概率分布越不能用Weibull分布进行较好拟合。     

台湾岛东西两岸的海流

本文收集、整理和分析台湾岛东、西两岸的海流资料，获得以下主要结果；（１）台湾东岸的黑潮路径，无论是表层或深层，都是冬季偏酉（距台湾东岸较近），夏季偏东，春、秋两季的介于冬、夏季的路径之间。（２）台湾东岸黑潮的流速，具有夏、春强而冬弱的特点。（３）台湾西岸近海的海流，除表层受风的影响较大外，１０ｍ层开始，尤其是近底层，冬、夏两季皆以北向或东北向流为主，呈现出一派北向流的路径。这与传统观念不同。     

Numerical investigation of ocean waves generated by three typhoons in offshore China

The influences of the three types of reanalysis wind fields on the simulation of three typhoon waves occurred in2015 in offshore China were numerically investigated. The typhoon wave model was based on the simulating waves nearshore model(SWAN), in which the wind fields for driving waves were derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) Re-Analysis-Interim(ERA-interim), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction climate forecast system version 2(CFSv2) and cr...     

Uncertainty analysis of soil-pile interactions of monopile offshore wind turbine support structures

The objective of this work is to study the uncertainties involved in the modelling of the soil-pile interaction concerning their influence on the prediction of the dynamic structural response of monopile offshore wind turbine support structures. Two main issues are identified and addressed: the adequacy of the method used to deal with the soil-pile interactions and the adequacy of the soil properties reflecting the behaviour of the soil. The present study develops an approach that defines the penetrated pile length depending on the soil profile. Also, a parameter is defined to avoid the excessive usage of steel for the penetrated pile structure. The uncertainties are included in the probabilistic free vibration analysis and the contribution of each random variable to the scatter of the response is estimated by performing a sensitivity analysis. The results indicate that the uncertainty involved in the modelling of the soil profile has a significant effect on the coefficient of variance of the natural frequency, which is a serious issue to be considered in the fatigue life assessment of offshore wind turbine support structures.     

Wave model predictions in the Black Sea: Sensitivity to wind fields

This paper evaluates the impact of using different wind field products on the performance of the third generation wave model SWAN in the Black Sea and its capability for predicting both normal and extreme wave conditions during 1996. Wind data were obtained from NCEP CFSR, NASA MERRA, JRA-25, ECMWF Operational, ECMWF ERA40, and ECMWF ERA-Interim. Wave data were obtained in 1996 at three locations in the Black Sea within the NATO TU-WAVES project. The quality of wind fields was assessed by comparing them with satellite data. These wind data were used as forcing fields for the generation of wind waves. Time series of predicted significant wave height (H_mo), mean wave period (T_m02), and mean wave direction (DIR) were compared with observations at three offshore buoys in the Black Sea and its performance was quantified in terms of statistical parameters. In addition, wave model performance in terms of significant wave height was also assessed by comparing them against satellite data.The main scope of this work is the impact of the different available wind field products on the wave hindcast performance. In addition, the sensitivity of wave model forecasts due to variations in spatial and temporal resolutions of the wind field products was investigated. Finally, the impact of using various wind field products on predicting extreme wave events was analyzed by focussing on storm peaks and on an individual storm event in October 1996. The numerical results revealed that the CFSR winds are more suitable in comparison with the others for modelling both normal and extreme events in the Black Sea. The results also show that wave model output is critically sensitive to the choice of the wind field product, such that the quality of the wind fields is reflected in the quality of the wave predictions. A finer wind spatial resolution leads to an improvement of the wave model predictions, while a finer temporal resolution in the wind fields generally does not significantly improve agreement between observed and simulated wave data.     

海上风电对海洋生态环境与海洋生物资源的综合影响研究进展

海上风电具有就近消纳方便、发电效率高和不消耗化石能源等特点,在低碳经济发展背景下,加快海上风电开发已成为全球各国促进能源结构转型与可持续发展的普遍共识。但海上风电在建设及运营过程中所产生的噪音和磁场对海洋环境和生物的影响尚不明确。本文系统梳理了全球海上风电发展现状,分析了海上风电开发对海洋生态环境与生物资源的综合影响,从生理、行为和分子三个层面重点分析了海上风电所产生的噪音和磁场对海洋生物的潜在影响,以期为科学利用海上风电提供参考。     

海上风电场基础结构设计综述

针对我国海上风电场开发建设的现状和发展趋势,结合海上风电场基础结构设计研发现状和存在的问题,探讨海上风电场基础结构设计的关键问题——设计理念、设计方法和设计标准等,分析海上风电场基础结构的结构、荷载和服役特点,分析海上风电场基础结构与水工结构和海洋石油平台设计的异同。并根据海上风电和海洋石油的行业特点,分析API规范和DNV规范对于海上风电场基础结构设计的适用性,阐述了海上风电场基础结构设计的特殊性、荷载取值和参考标准等问题。基于我国海洋工程技术发展水平和海上风电产业的发展趋势,提出发展适合我国国情的海上风电场基础结构型式及设计,指出我国海上风电产业发展应注意和避免发生的问题。     

大风事件对长江口及邻近海域海-气CO2通量的影响

依托2017年8月23日至2017年9月6日在长江口及邻近海域连续走航测得的二氧化碳分压(pCO₂)值,结合温度、盐度、溶解氧等数据,阐述该海域pCO₂的分布特征,并利用一次大风事件前后一个断面的重复观测数据,讨论天气事件对长江口海-气CO₂通量的影响。夏季长江口及邻近海域表层海水pCO₂范围为145~929 μatm,总体呈近岸高远岸低的分布特征,在受长江冲淡水影响的区域,海表pCO₂较低,整体表现为大气CO₂的汇。大风事件(最大风速达9.7 m·s^-1)加强了水体的垂直混合,导致近岸区域从大气CO₂的弱源变为强源(CO₂通量从0.2±1.9上升到 55.0±12.4 mmol·m^-2·d^-1),而远岸区域的碳汇略有加强(CO₂通量从-12.7±2.3变为-16.8±2.5 mmol·m^-2·d^-1)。因此,在估算东海海-气CO₂通量时,台风、冷空气等短时间尺度天气事件的影响也不容忽视。     

广西近海潮汐和海流的观测分析与数值研究——Ⅰ.观测与分析

1992 - 1 996年 ,对广西近海水深浅于 2 0 m的整个海域 ,利用 2 8个锚碇浮标和 2 3个周日连续观测站 ,对水位和海流进行了观测。根据观测结果 ,对该海域的潮汐性质 ,潮流特征和余流分布进行了分析 ,并对潮汐与潮流性质差异的动因和影响余流变化的主要因子进行初步探讨。结果表明 :广西近海的潮汐性质属于正规日潮。潮流性质大部分属于不正规半日潮或不正规日潮。余流主要由潮余流和风海流组成。潮流大小潮变化和风的变化是导致余流变化的主要原因。潮流绕海角运动 ,流速增强 ,并能诱导经向离岸流