Evaluation of the North Atlantic Oscillation as simulated by a coupled climate model

 The realism of the Hadley Centre’s coupled climate model (HadCM2) is evaluated in terms of its simulation of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a major natural mode of the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere that is currently the subject of considerable scientific interest. During 1400 y of a control integration with present-day radiative forcing levels, HadCM2 exhibits a realistic NAO associated with spatial patterns of sea level pressure, synoptic activity, temperature and precipitation anomalies that are very similar to those observed. Spatially, the main model deficiency is that the simulated NAO has a teleconnection with the North Pacific that is stronger than observed. In a temporal sense the simulation is compatible with the observations if the recent observed trend (from low values in the 1960s to high values in the early 1990s) in the winter NAO index (the pressure difference between Gibraltar and Iceland) is ignored. This recent trend is, however, outside the range of variability simulated by the control integration of HadCM2, implying that either the model is deficient or that external forcing is responsible for the variation. It is shown, by analysing two ensembles, each of four HadCM2 integrations that were forced with historic and possible future changes in greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol concentrations, that a small part of the recent observed variation may be a result of anthropogenic forcing. If so, then the HadCM2 experiments indicate that the anthropogenic effect should reverse early next century, weakening the winter pressure gradient between Gibraltar and Iceland. Even combining this anthropogenic forcing and internal variability cannot explain all of the recent observed variations, indicating either some model deficiency or that some other external forcing is partly responsible. Received: 20 August 1998 / Accepted: 12 May 1999     

卫星云图的计算机分析识别

提出了采用数学形态学与句法模式识别结合，将云系结构与天气系统联系起来的卫星云图计算机分析识别方法，克服了传统的统计识别方法不能很好地反映云系整体性结构的缺陷，对一次台风过程不同阶段云系发展演特征，实现了计算机分析识别试验，结果显示，在台风发展的不同阶段，云系的结构，形状和组成是不同的。     

Does temperature contain a stochastic trend: linking statistical results to physical mechanisms

By construction, the time series for radiative forcing that are used to run the 20c3m experiments, which are implemented by climate models, impart non-stationary movements (either stochastic or deterministic) to the simulated time series for global surface temperature. Here, we determine whether stochastic or deterministic trends are present in the simulated time series for global surface temperature by examining the time series for radiative forcing. Statistical tests indicate that the forcings contain a stochastic trend against the alternative hypothesis that the series are trend stationary with a one-time structural change. This result is consistent with the economic processes that impart a stochastic trend to anthropogenic emissions and the physical processes that integrate emissions in the atmosphere. Furthermore, the stochastic trend in the aggregate measure of radiative forcing also is present in the simulated time series for global surface temperature, which is consistent with the relation between these two variables that is represented by a zero dimensional energy balance model. Finally, we propose that internal weather variability imposed on the stochastic trend in radiative forcings is responsible for statistical results, which gives the impression that global surface temperature is trend stationary with a one-time structural change. We conclude that using the ideas of stochastic trends, cointegration, and error correction can generate reliable conclusions regarding the causes of changes in global surface temperature during the instrumental temperature record.     

Microwave scatter and sea state estimation: Two-scale ocean wave models

The efficient estimation of ocean wave-structure parameters with a remote, narrow-beam, pulsed, microwave radar at intermediate incidence angles is discussed. The sea surface is described as the sum of random small- and large-scale structures (waves), the latter the sum of a sinusoid and a random field. It is shown that the small-scale structure is responsible for scattering and that the scatter depends parametrically on the large-scale structure. For the estimation problem it is assumed, reasonably, that the received signal is normally distributed: a relatively simple processor which will efficiently estimate parameters of the sinusoidal structure is illustrated and its performance discussed. A brief comparison is made with a normal incidence system with which the variance of the large-scale random roughness can be estimated.Research supported by NASA Grant NSG-5048.     

具有控制器增益随机不确定性的多智能体一致性控制

针对控制器存在随机不确定性的多智能体系统,研究了所有智能体状态达到一致的控制问题.首先,假设智能体连接网络拓扑是无向、固定和连通的,而且每个个体的控制器存在相同的随机不确定性,最终得到了融合随机控制器增益不确定的闭环控制系统模型.应用基于李雅普诺夫稳定性理论、线性矩阵不等式技术和鲁棒控制方法,得到了一种保证误差状态系统渐近稳定的充分条件.进一步通过一系列矩阵变换处理技巧,将状态反馈控制器的存在条件转化为一组线性矩阵不等式的可行解问题.最后应用计算机仿真验证了该控制器设计结果的有效性.     

Nonlinear pulsations of horizontal jets

A shallow-water model with horizontally nonuniform density is used to study the dynamics of jet flows that arise under the influence of buoyancy and the Coriolis force. Within this approach, the jet is described by a self-similar compactly-localized solution and interpreted as a band of shear flow having a temperature contrast with the ambient fluid. In addition to stationary states, the dynamics of such jets admit cyclonic rotation with a constant angular velocity and transverse nonlinear pulsations. The phase portrait corresponding to this model shows that regimes with pulsating jets develop along closed trajectories bounded by the separatrix loop. The theory predicts that the period for warm jet pulsations is longer than the inertial oscillation period caused by the Earth’s rotation, while for cold jet pulsations, it is shorter. Thus, only warm jets can have a noticeable effect on the atmospheric dynamics in the synoptic range. In particular, they may well be responsible for additional spectral peaks that appear in this range of wind speed fluctuations.     

The ideas of secondary school children concerning ozone layer damage

The understanding of pupils between the ages of 11 and 16 about the ozone layer — what it is, what will damage it and what will be the likely result of such damage — has been studied. Following the use of a preliminary open-form questionnaire, the ideas of a large cohort of children have been probed by closed-form questionnaire and by interviews with a subset of this group. The authors explain that most pupils seem aware that the ozone layer is a layer of gas around Earth, but less sure what that gas is. They also know that it protects Earth from ultra-violet rays from the sun, and that further depletion will allow more ultra-violet to Earth and cause more skin cancer. Most also know that one cause of depletion is the use of CFCs, but many confuse the depletion of the ozone layer with the greenhouse effect and other forms of atmospheric pollution. The authors provide evidence to suggest that such confusion of ideas is strongly held and that, even with this relatively new and abstract phenomenon, ideas are held in a consistent and similar framework by most pupils.     

How do small-holder farmers understand insurance,and how much do they want it? Evidence from Africa

Innovative micro-insurance schemes can be one tool to help African small-holder farmers cope with climate variability and change. A critical challenge for implementing such risk transfer programs, however, is helping participants understand how insurance operates, and there is evidence that farmers with a poor understanding of insurance are less likely to use it. One of the proposed tools to help farmers understand insurance is a simulation game, through which farmers can gain first-hand experience with a functioning insurance market. This paper reports on the results of experiments in Ethiopia and Malawi, investigating farmers’ understanding and the effectiveness of a role-playing game at improving that understanding. Our results suggest a generally poor understanding of basic insurance concepts, and are consistent with past results in suggesting that better understanding correlates with greater willingness to purchase it. Our results also suggest that role-playing games may be an important tool for improving understanding, but that they do not necessarily out-perform more conventional training practices.     

Development of a risk-hedging CO2-emission policy, part I: Risks of unrestrained emissions

A rational global strategy with respect to greenhouse-gas emissions would seek to minimize total risk, which is the sum of the risk of negative impacts due to climatic change associated with a given level of emissions, and the risks associated with the process of achieving that emission level. Given the existence of reducible uncertainties in estimating these risks, and the possibility that an emission target thought to minimize total risk is later found to be not strict enough, a risk-hedging strategy is a more realistic policy objective. This paper is Part I of a two-part series in which these risks are reviewed and an interim risk-hedging emission level is proposed. Here, the risks associated with unrestrained greenhouse-gas emissions are reviewed. In particular, the carbon-cycle response to continuing CO₂ emissions; the heat trapping of projected greenhouse gas increases in comparison to other anthropogenic and natural heating or cooling perturbations; the climatic response to heating perturbations; and the impacts of projected climatic change on global agriculture, forests, coastal regions, coral reefs, water resources, terrestrial species, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone, and human comfort and welfare are critically examined. It is concluded that unrestrained emissions of greenhouse gases pose real and substantial risks to human societies and to ecosystems, and that these risks are likely to grow substantially if the climate warms beyond that associated with a CO₂ doubling. These risks clearly justify some action to limit emissions. The magnitude of emission restraint that is justified depends not only on the risks reviewed here, but also on the risks associated with measures to limit greenhouse-gas emissions, which are reviewed in Part II.     

UV irradiance on arbitrarily oriented surfaces: variation with atmospheric and ground properties

Summary The dependency of erythemal weighted solar UV irradiance on tilted surfaces with different orientation is investigated with respect to solar zenith angle, variable atmospheric conditions and albedo of the location. For overcast conditions or a cloud in front of the sun, the irradiance on a horizontal surface in general is largest, with the consequence that it is reduced for surfaces with any tilted position. For cloud free conditions the irradiance on a tilted plane, in comparison to that on a horizontal flat surface, is increased for orientations towards the sun, but reduced for other orientations. The increase is strongest for low sun in combination with clear atmosphere and high ground albedo, as is typical for snow covered mountain conditions.     

A reexamination of the valley wind system in the Alpine Inn Valley with numerical simulations

Summary This paper presents idealized numerical simulations of the valley wind circulation in the Alpine Inn Valley, which are compared with existing data and are used to improve our dynamical understanding of the valley wind. The simulations have been performed with the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model MM5. They use a high-resolution realistic topography but idealized large-scale conditions without any synoptic forcing to focus on the thermally induced valley wind system. The comparison with the available observations shows that this simplified set-up is sufficient to reproduce the essential features of the valley wind.The results show that the tributaries of the Inn Valley have a considerable impact on the along-valley mass fluxes associated with the valley wind circulation. The upvalley mass flux is found to increase where tributaries enter the Inn Valley from the north, that is, from the direction where the Alpine foreland is located. On the other hand, the upvalley mass flux is reduced at the junctions with southern tributaries because part of the upvalley flow is deflected into these tributaries. For the downvalley flow, the situation is essentially reversed, but the influence of the valley geometry on the flow structure is larger than for the upvalley flow. The most important feature is a lateral valley contraction near the valley exit into the Alpine foreland. It reduces the downvalley mass flux at low levels, so that the wind maximum in the interior of the valley is shifted to a fairly large distance from the ground. North of the valley contraction, however, the downvalley flow strongly accelerates and forms a pronounced low-level jet. A dynamical analysis indicates that this acceleration can be interpreted as a transition from subcritical to supercritical hydraulic flow. Another interesting feature is that the low-level jet maintains its structure for several tenths of kilometres into the Alpine foreland. This appears to be related to the fact that the lateral wind shear on the flanks of the jet is associated with a strong dipole of potential vorticity (PV). Due to the conservation properties of the PV, the downstream advection of the PV dipole leads to the formation of a band-like feature that decays fairly slowly.     

Some aspects of internal gravity waves in the multicell-type convective system

Summary Some aspects of internal gravity waves in the multicell-type convective system are examined using a linear theory and a nonlinear numerical model. The basic-state wind is assumed to increase linearly with height and then remain constant.In the theoretical part, the two-dimensional, linear, steady-state response of a stably stratified atmosphere to specified cooling representing the evaporative cooling of falling precipitation in the subcloud layer is analytically considered. It is shown that there exist an updraft on the upstream side of the cooling and a downdraft on the downstream side. As the wind shear increases enough, the magnitude of the updraft decreases. This is because a large portion of the specified cooling is used to compensate for the positive vorticity associated with the positive wind shear and accordingly the effective cooling necessary to produce perturbations is reduced.In the numerical part, a two-dimensional version of the ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System) that is a nonhydrostatic, compressible model with detailed physical processes is employed. Results from the dry simulation, in which the steady cooling is specified in the model, show that the simulated quasi-steady field resembles the linear, steady-state solution field because the nonlinearity factor of thermally-induced waves in this case is small. For the moist simulation, the quasi-steady perturbations obtained from the dry simulation are used as initial conditions. It is shown that gravity waces can effectively initiate convection even with small amplitude and that updraft at the head of the density current somewhat resembles the linear, steady-state response of a stably straified flow to the specified cooling. The updraft, that is, forced internal gravity waves, at the head of the density current is responsible for the initiation of consecutive convective cells that move downstream and develop as a main convective cell. This study suggests that internal gravity waves play a major role in the initiation of consecutive convective cells in the multicell-type convective system and hence in its maintenance.     

卫星观测到的我国闪电活动的时空分布特征

利用卫星上携带的闪电探测仪所获取的8年闪电资料,对我国闪电活动的空间分布、季节变化和日变化等特征进行了分析。结果表明：按照闪电活动的频繁程度在空间上可以将我国大致分为与太平洋海岸平行的4条闪电活动带：即近海区域、中部区域、西部区域和西部边境区域。其中,东南近海区域是我国闪电活动最频繁的地区,并向西北地区逐渐减弱,而西部地区则是我国闪电活动最弱的地区。我国的闪电活动呈现出明显的季节变化和日变化,平均而言,闪电活动主要集中在夏季(约占全年总闪电活动的68％),并以8月份最为活跃,春季次之(约占全年总闪电活动的24％),然后是秋季,冬季最弱,并在11月份出现闪电活动的最小值。在各个季节,随着纬度的减小闪电活动呈现出明显增大的趋势。闪电活动的日变化表明,我国的闪电活动绝大多数发生在午后至傍晚时分,这也与对流活动相对应,而少数地区发生在夜间。     

Mathematical Derivation of Spatially-Averaged Momentum Equations for an Urban Canopy Model Using Underlying Concepts of the Immersed Boundary Method

We propose a new approach to derive spatially-averaged momentum equations for an urban canopy model that resolves buildings vertically and not horizontally. First, in order to mathematically describe the actual momentum field as a completely continuous field, the underling concepts of the immersed boundary method are employed, where we assume that (i) the entire simulation space, including that occupied by buildings, is filled with a fluid, and (ii) an external body force field exists that reduces the wind speed to zero at all positions coinciding with the space occupied by the buildings. Then, in order to obtain the required spatially-averaged momentum equations in a self-consistent manner, a spatial-averaging operation is applied to the Navier–Stokes equations that include a term representing the external force field. The applied spatial-averaging operation is equivalent to the conventional spatial filtering operation used in large-eddy simulations. To examine the significance of the subgrid-scale (SGS) stresses of the spatially-averaged momentum equations, a numerical simulation is performed for a flow around a regular array of cubical blocks with a grid resolution that is sufficient to resolve the blocks. By estimating the individual terms in the spatially-averaged momentum equations using the simulation results, we show that the SGS stresses contribute significantly to the spatially-averaged momentum budget, and therefore they should not be neglected in urban canopy modelling.     

大气中40—60天低频振荡形成的数值试验

观测资料的分析表明,40—60天的低频振荡,除了在赤道附近有向东的传播外,在副热带和高纬度带还存在向西传播的现象.本文利用正压原始方程的谱模式,加以与运动(辐散)相联系的强迫(相当于加热场),模拟这类低频振荡发现有两类波存在:一类是周期约为10—20天向东传播的行星波,另一类是周期为40—60天向西传播的低频波,它是前一类行星波的波包相速度,每天5—6经度,纬向波数为1.这类低频波的出现可能是行星波与加热场非线性相互作用的结果. 这里之所以没有得到东传的40—60天的低频波,可能是由于模式格点较疏,使赤道Kelvin波不能明显激发出来.     

Heat and Water Vapour Diffusivities Near the Base of a Disturbed Stable Internal Boundary Layer

We present results from an experiment that wasdesigned to investigate turbulent transportrelationships in a nearly homogeneous boundary layerdisturbed by unsteady wind swings, as found at thebase of an advective inversion with a convectiveboundary layer overhead. In such a situation wemeasured vertical gradients and eddy fluxes of temperature andhumidity at two heights. From these, the turbulentdiffusivities of heat and water vapour are obtained,and compared to the predictions of Monin–Obukhovsimilarity theory and those of a numericalsecond-order closure model. It is found that themeasured diffusivities exceed both predictions. Thisis interpreted as a consequence of the unsteadyconditions. It is also found that the diffusivity forheat is roughly 10% larger than that for watervapour. This is in agreement with a theoreticaltreatment of the unsteadiness effects that wedeveloped in an earlier publication. This result isnot reproduced by the numerical model because themodel has no provision for unsteady conditions. Ourresult disagrees with that from an earlier, verysimilar, field experiment, which may be due to asystematic underestimation of sensible heat flux inthe older experiment.     

Optimal liability apportionment in programmatic credit-based emissions trading

The inclusion of Programmes of Activities (PoAs) within the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has been limited by the fact that third-party project validators, who determine the eligibility of a CDM Project Activity (CPA), are currently held liable for any certificates that are erroneously issued. As such, validators must replace any credits issued for the relevant CPA. Moreover, the risk associated with the validation of small-scale CPAs is considerably higher than that associated with traditional CDM projects. Using a simple game-theory model to model the interactions between project validators and coordinators, it is shown that shifting liability for certificates that are erroneously included – from the former to the latter – is never optimal, does not provide a strong enough incentive to enforce first-best levels of due care in CPA selection and inclusion, and can induce overprovision in validation efforts. The main problem with such a simple proportionate liability regime is that an increase in incentives for one player automatically leads to a decrease in incentives for the other. Two additional instruments are also considered that would both rectify this problem and improve the environmental integrity of the CDM mechanism.     

Soil temperature spin-up in land surface schemes

Land surface schemes used in atmospheric and hydrologic models require the specification of initial soil-temperature profiles. However, detailed soil temperature information is generally unavailable, hence modellers sometimes recur to specifying simplified initial conditions such as vertically constant profiles, assuming that the harmonic heating at the soil surface induces a rapid equilibrium to a steady periodic state. In this paper, using both numerical and analytical approaches, it is shown that such a transition to a steady periodic state is not always very rapid. In particular, it is demonstrated that the characteristic time required to reach equilibrium is highly dependent on the precise timing of initialisation with respect to the cycle of surface heating, and that initialising at the instant coincident with the occurrence of the maximum soil heat flux is the preferred mode.     

一个统计低云方案及其在大气环流模式中应用初探

文中利用湍流耗散特征时间尺度和湍流垂直扩散系数对湍流二阶距进行参数化 ,将一个统计云方案与一阶湍流闭合方案进行耦合。基于数值试验 ,在不同的相对湿度、温度垂直梯度、以及湍流耗散特征时间尺度条件下 ,对该方案云量模拟能力的分析 ,发现该统计云方案对其采用的参数及湍流耗散特征时间尺度敏感。基于该数值模拟分析 ,修改了该统计云方案 ,并结合其他边界层积云参数化方案 ,给出了一个基于统计的低云参数化方案。将其初步应用于NCARCCM 3后发现 :该方案可以显著增强CCM 3对副热带低云的模拟能力 ,可以合理地模拟出大洋东部大陆西岸冷海域低云量大值中心 ,显示出该方案对于改进大气环流模式低云参数化具有潜在的应用前景。